Cnotes 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[CNOTES]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 14
December 8, 2017


The Browns have four more whacks at finally getting a win this season and only two of those chances happen to be at home, this Sunday against the Packers and next week against the Ravens. They covered last week at the Chargers (-13.5) to make them 3-9 against the spread on the season, but have failed to cover their last five at home.


Despite the Browns (0-12) crummy resume that includes a league-worst 14.7 points per game, the wagering on the Cleveland-Green Bay game is surpassing most of the marquee matchups in Week 14 action.


"A couple games stand out this week," said CG Technology VP of risk Jason Simbal on Friday morning. "We have a major sharp-square divide on the Packers-Browns game. Sharp money came early on the Browns taking +3.5 and when we went down to -3, we got a large bet on the Packers. But the bigger action has been with the public all laying the Packers. We have a ticket count ratio of 40 to 3 on the Packers."


CG books have the Packers -3 -120, and so do half the other sports book operations in Las Vegas. The other half of the city has the Packers -3.5 EVEN. This game is William Hill sports books most bet of all 14 Sunday games. This is likely to be quarterback Brett Hundley's last start with Aaron Rodgers possibly returning in Week 15. Green Bay (6-6) has gone 2-5 since Rodgers got hurt.


"The other big game for us is the Eagles at Rams, probably the game of the week," Simbal said. "We opened pick and immediately took repected money there and at -1 and -1.5. We got up to -2.5 and that's when we started getting Philly money pushing us back to -1.5 to the point where we need the Rams now."


William Hill sports books have had 51 percent of their tickets written on the Eagles (10-2) which is a good example of the betting patterns with the two highest scoring teams in the NFL facing each other. The Eagles and Rams (9-3) are both averaging 30.1 PPG. The Rams (9-3) have won and covered their last two and are 8-4 ATS while the Eagles come into this game off their first loss since Week 2, a 24-10 decision last Monday at Seattle. The Eagles are tied with Minnesota for the best record at the betting counter with a 9-3 ATS mark.


The Vikings (10-2) are -3 EVEN at Carolina (8-4) this week and 90 percent of the cash taken at William Hill on this one has been on Minnesota.


The Bengals (5-7) have covered the spread in their last four while the Bears (3-9) have lost five straight (0-4-1 ATS), so guess who is being bet the most here?


"The public loves the Bengals," said Simbal. "We've moved up from -6 to -6.5. We don't have one (straight) bet on the Bears. Zero."


The 49ers (2-10) have won two of their past three games with new starting QB Jimmy Garappolo getting a win at Chicago last week in his first start. They travel to Houston against a Texans (4-8) squad that has lost five of its last six.


"Sharps like the Texans at home against the 49ers. We've taken large bets at -1.5, -2 and -2.5 forcing us to -2.5 -120," said Simbal.


MGM books and Wynn are also using Houston -2.5 -120. The South Point uses exclusively flat numbers and are at -2.5. William Hill, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, Station Casinos and Boyd Gaming are using -3 EVEN.


"They're on the 'dog in the Sunday night game," Simbal said. "We moved from -6 to -5.5 just because of the Steelers injuries and they took that so we went straight to -4.5 and it's been steady there."


Because 5 and 5.5 are dead numbers on the bookmaking ladder, bypassing 5 entirely like Simbal did in this situation is a common strategy. William Hill sports books have this match-up as their most lopsided game with 94 percent of the cash on the Ravens (7-5).


The Steelers (10-2) have wide receiver Antonio Brown listed as 'probable' while safety Mike Micthell is questionable and WR JuJu Smith-Shuster is 'out' with a suspension.


The Ravens have won three straight while the Steelers have won seven straight -- three of the last four by exactly three points. Baltimore is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings against the Steelers with the lone non-cover happening in a 26-9 Week 4 loss this season.


Two games were still "OFF" the board as of Friday afternoon because of the uncertainty of a couple starting quarterbacks. Matt Stafford (hand) is 'questionable' to start for Detroit (6-6) at Tampa Bay (4-8).


Tyrod Taylor (knee) is listed as 'questionable' for Buffalo's (6-6) home game against the Colts (3-9).

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Week 14
December 9, 2017


The ‘under’ went 8-7-1 last week and practically all of those low side tickets were never in doubt with an average combined score of 32.4 points per game. One ‘over’ ticket that cashed late came in the extra session of Tampa Bay-Green Bay matchup (45) as the Packers scored a game-winning touchdown in their 26-20 overtime victory. The lone push occurred on Monday Night between the Steelers and Bengals. Through 13 weeks, the ‘over’ holds a 98-92-2 record.


Trends to Watch


As we enter the final quarter of the season, here are some notable total tendencies to watch in the last four weeks of the regular season.


The Lions own the best ‘over’ record (9-3) in the league and they’ve executed the right formula for the high side – a solid offense (26.2 PPG) and poor defense (25.7 PPG). Detroit brings a five-game run to the high side into this week’s matchup at Tampa Bay.


Sticking with the Buccaneers, they’ve seen the ‘under’ go 5-1 at home. The offense can’t score (17.2 PPG) at Raymond James Stadium this season, yet the defense (15.2 PPG) has been very stout.


The Steelers (8-3-1) remain the best ‘under’ wager and that includes a 6-0-1 mark on the road, largely because their offense (20.9 PPG) hasn’t traveled well.


Another offense (20.3 PPG) that has struggled on the road is Seattle, but it has managed to step up defensively (16 PPG). Outside of one bad quarter against Tennessee in Week 3, this unit has been lights out on the road and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 5-1. The Seahawks head to Jacksonville this week.


Despite being winless, Cleveland (0-12) has been a tough out at home and its defense (20 PPG) has kept them in games. That effort has helped the ‘under’ go 5-1 and the one ‘over’ result occurred against Minnesota in a game played from London. Green Bay visits FirstEnergy Stadium from Ohio on Sunday.


The ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in away games for the Redskins, who has surrendered 28.2 PPG as visitors. The offense (22.2 PPG) has managed to do enough to help the totals lean high.


We have six non-conference games slated in Week 14 and the ‘over’ has gone 28-21-1 (57%) this season in AFC-NFC matchups.


Line Moves


Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday morning based off the Week 14 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.


Chicago at Cincinnati: 37 to 38 ½
Minnesota at Carolina: 42 to 40
San Francisco at Houston: 42 ½ to 44 ½
N.Y. Jets at Denver: 40 ½ to 42
Philadelphia at L.A. Rams: 51 to 48


Looking at the above moves, you can see the correlation between matchups with playoffs teams opposed to ones without them. Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu wasn’t surprised by the tendencies for these games. “The usual consensus in games like this where you have two quality opponents is that you’re going to see a tighter gameplan and the defenses are slightly ahead of the offenses. Meanwhile, I think the bar is raised a bit in meaningless games. Offenses have nothing to lose, and you have players and coaches playing for their jobs,” explained Cooley.

Divisional Games

I’ve seen some great seasonal trends before but the ‘under’ results in this year’s divisional games continue to show up. The low side went 4-1-1 last week, plus this past Thursday’s result between Falcons and Saints also went ‘under’ the number. When you add up all those results, the ‘under’ sits at 37-19-1 (66%) in divisional matchups this season. We have four matchups remaining in Week 14 and two of them take place in the night games.


Dallas at N.Y. Giants: The ‘under’ has cashed in three straight in this series which includes a 19-3 win by Dallas at home in Week 1 and the low side (46) was never in doubt. The Giants will have Eli Manning back at quarterback and I don’t believe he’ll make much of a difference but it’s impossible to handicap emotions. New York is on a 3-0 ‘under’ run and Dallas had the same total streak going before it lit up the Redskins 38-14 last Thursday at home.


Oakland at Kansas City: The Raiders nipped the Chiefs 31-30 at home on Oct. 19 and the ‘over’ (46 ½) cashed easily. That result snapped a 3-0 ‘under’ run in this series. This week’s number is hovering between 48 and 49 points. This is a tough game to handicap because the Chiefs are a mess right now and three of the last four wins by the Raiders came against three of the weakest teams in the league (Dolphins, Broncos, Giants). Despite the turmoil with Kansas City, the Chiefs defense (18.8 PPG) is still tough to solve at home and Oakland has scored 13, 17 and 13 points to Arrowhead with QB Derek Carr.


Baltimore at Pittsburgh: (See Below)


New England at Miami: (See Below)


Road Total System


What’s the system?


Play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game


This angle is in play for Week 14 as Minnesota will visit Carolina. The Vikings played at Detroit on Thanksgiving and they visited Atlanta last Sunday.


For those following the TT piece this season, you’re aware that we brought up the system in last week’s installment as Tampa Bay was forced to play three straight road game due to its Week 1 game being postponed. As mentioned above, Green Bay won in overtime and that game-winning TD helped the ‘over’ connect.


If you include last week’s result, the ‘over’ stands at 3-2 this season and is now 44-22 (67%) over the last 12 seasons.


For this week’s particular matchup between Minnesota and Carolina, it has the makings of a slugfest and the early money is leaning to the low side. However, it’s hard to dismiss a profitable betting angle.

Under the Lights


After a crazy ‘over’ run, we’re starting to see more ‘under’ results connect in these night games and you know the bookmakers are happy with that. The totals went 1-1-1 last week and on the season, but the ‘over’ still holds an overall edge (24-16-1,60%) and that includes this past Thursday’s result between the Saints and Falcons.


Baltimore at Pittsburgh: The ‘under’ is on a 4-1 run in this series and that includes Pittsburgh’s 26-9 road win over Baltimore in Week 4 with a total of 41 ½. The total (43 ½) has been pushed up for the rematch and the adjustment is fair. Since the early loss to the Steelers, the Ravens have scored 20-plus points in seven of their last eight games and Pittsburgh’s defense is short-handed and appears to be wearing down. Plus, the Steelers have had a knack of scoring points (35.5 PPG) at home in primetime games.


New England at Miami: These teams met two weeks ago in Foxboro and New England stopped Miami 35-17 as the popular Favorite-Over (-16.5, 49) combination connected and that’s been the theme in this matchup. The Patriots-Over ticket has now cashed in three straight and four of the last six meetings in this series. Not having TE Rob Gronkowski (suspension) won’t be easy, but New England has gone 20-5 without him. Miami enters this game on a 7-0 run to the ‘over’ which has been attributed to a poor defensive effort (30.6 PPG). Sticking with defense, Bill Belichick’s squad have done a complete 180 this season. The unit is allowing 11.9 PPG in their last eight games and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 6-2. Considering they gave up 32 PPG in their first four games, it’s really eye-opening.


Fearless Predictions


My best total wagers split last week and unfortunately the Chargers and Browns came up short in our teaser wager, which ended our winning streak. The deficit was light ($10) and getting into the black before the playoffs doesn’t seem impossible ($430). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!


Best Over: Washington-Los Angeles 46 ½


Best Under: Oakland-Kansas City 48 ½


Best Team Total: Under 23 Cincinnati


Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Over 37 San Francisco-Houston
Over 38 Washington-Los Angeles
Over 31 ½ Minnesota-Carolina

 

[CNOTES]

Pick Six - Week 14
December 9, 2017


Week 13 Record: 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS
Overall Record: 37-41 SU, 33-42-1 ATS


Cowboys (-3 ½, 41 ½) at Giants – 1:00 PM EST


Dallas
Record: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS, 6-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1


The Cowboys snapped a three-game losing streak by blasting the Redskins, 38-13 as short home underdogs. Dallas’ offense combined to score 22 points during the three losses prior to the Washington outburst as the Cowboys amazingly didn’t score a point in the first and third quarters against the Redskins. The Cowboys own a solid 3-1 SU/ATS record as a road favorite this season, while looking to pull off the season sweep of the Giants after knocking off New York in the season opener, 19-3.


New York
Record: 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS, 7-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF


Eli Manning is back in the saddle again for the Giants at quarterback as the team is moving on from head coach Ben McAdoo, who was fired this week. The Giants return home following a pair of low-scoring road losses at Washington and Oakland, as New York cashed as 10-point underdogs last Sunday in a 24-17 defeat to the Raiders. New York has compiled a 1-4 SU/ATS record at home this season, which includes an 0-2 SU/ATS mark as a single-digit home underdog.


Best Bet: Giants +3 ½


Vikings (-2 ½, 40 ½) at Panthers – 1:00 PM EST


Minnesota
Record: 10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS, 6-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 7/1


The Vikings picked up their eighth straight win last Sunday in a key NFC showdown at Atlanta with a 14-9 victory as two-point underdogs. During this hot streak, Minnesota has covered seven times, including five ATS wins in the favorite role. The Vikings have dominated the Panthers in each of their last two meetings since 2014, including a 22-10 triumph at Bank of America Stadium last September as six-point underdogs.


Carolina
Record: 8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS, 7-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 28/1


The Panthers had their four-game winning streak come to a halt in a 31-21 setback at New Orleans as 5 ½-point underdogs. Carolina lost the season tiebreaker to New Orleans, as the Panthers will likely have to settle for a Wild Card spot after losing their first game in the underdog role this season in five opportunities. The Panthers beat the Falcons in early November as a home ‘dog, as Ron Rivera’s squad is 4-2 ATS since 2014 when receiving points at home.


Best Bet: Panthers +2 ½


Raiders at Chiefs (-4, 49) – 1:00 PM EST


Oakland
Record: 6-6 SU, 4-7-1 ATS, 7-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1


The Raiders have pulled back into a three-way tie atop the AFC West with Kansas City and Los Angeles by winning three of their last four games. Oakland held off New York last Sunday in a 24-17 home victory, the second straight week the Raiders have allowed 17 points or less. The Raiders have yet to win three consecutive games this season, but held off the Chiefs in the first meeting at the Coliseum, 31-30 in mid-October to snap a five-game skid to Kansas City dating back to 2014.


Kansas City
Record: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS, 7-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1


What is going on with the Chiefs? Once at 5-0 and the talk of the AFC, Kansas City is in danger of missing the playoffs following a 1-6 run the last seven games. Granted, there is still a month left in the season, but the Chiefs need to get back on track as they face the Raiders and Chargers at home over the next seven days. The Chiefs squandered a 14-0 lead in last Sunday’s 38-31 defeat to the Jets as Kansas City fell to 1-4 SU/ATS in the last five opportunities as a favorite.


Best Bet: Raiders +4


Redskins at Chargers (-6, 46) – 4:05 PM EST


Washington
Record: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS, 8-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 250/1


Time is running out on the Redskins to make a playoff run in the loaded NFC following a 38-14 loss at Dallas in Week 13. Washington hits the highway once again as the Redskins have already won in their two games out west against the Rams and Seahawks. The Redskins have fared well in the road underdog role since last season, going 7-3 ATS, while finishing OVER the total in five of six away games in 2017. Washington and Los Angeles have hooked up three times since 2005 as two of those meetings have gone to overtime, while the other was decided by three points.


Los Angeles
Record: 6-6 SU, 6-5-1 ATS, 8-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1


The Chargers have put together an incredible rebound from an 0-4 start, which included three defeats in their new home in Carson. The Lightning Bolts have won six of their last eight overall, while beating the Broncos, Bills, and Browns in their past three home contests. Los Angeles failed to cover as hefty 13 ½-point favorites in a 19-10 victory over the winless Browns last Sunday, snapping a three-game ATS hot streak.


Best Bet: Redskins +6


Eagles at Rams (-1 ½, 48 ½) – 4:25 PM EST


Philadelphia
Record: 10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS, 6-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 11/2


The Eagles remain on the west coast following a 24-10 setback at Seattle last Sunday night to snap a nine-game winning streak. Philadelphia was not only held to its lowest point total of the season, but the Eagles also saw its eight-game ATS hot streak come to an end. Now, the Eagles are flipped to an underdog for the fourth time this season, as Philadelphia has already won outright against the Chargers and Panthers as road ‘dogs. The Eagles have defeated the Rams in four straight meetings dating back to 2005, including a 34-28 home triumph in 2014.


Los Angeles
Record: 9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS, 7-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 14/1


The Rams remain atop the NFC West after pulling off the season sweep of the Cardinals, 32-16 last Sunday to cash as 7 ½-point road favorites. Since losing at home to Seattle in October, L.A. has won its past two home games (not counting the London shutout of Arizona), while posting a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS record in their last five opportunities in the favorite role. Since cashing the OVER in its first two home games, the Rams have seen the UNDER hit in each of its past three contests at the Coliseum, while allowing 20 points or less in seven of the past eight games.


Best Bet: Eagles +1 ½


Seahawks at Jaguars (-2 ½, 40 ½) – 4:25 PM EST


Seattle
Record: 8-4 SU, 5-6-1 ATS, 8-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1


The Seahawks make their second trip to the east coast this season as Seattle has won four consecutive road games since starting 0-2 away from CenturyLink Field. Seattle dominated Philadelphia last Sunday at home to remain one game behind Los Angeles for first place in the NFC West, while yielding 17 points or fewer in four of the past five contests. Seattle is visiting Jacksonville for the first time since a 26-14 opening day loss in 2005 as the Seahawks have outscored the Jaguars, 86-17 in the past two victories at CenturyLink Field in 2009 and 2013.


Jacksonville
Record: 8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS, 7-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1


The race to the finish in the AFC South will be a good one between Jacksonville and Tennessee. The two teams enter Sunday’s action tied atop the division at 8-4 as the Jaguars have won five of their past six games. Jacksonville pulled off the season sweep of Indianapolis with another dominating performance against the Colts last Sunday, 30-10 as 10-point favorites. Two of Jacksonville’s four losses this season have come against NFC West opponents, allowing 27 points each in defeats to Arizona and Los Angeles. The Jags are riding a three-game UNDER streak at home, while hitting the UNDER in five of the past six contests.


Best Bet: Jaguars -2 ½

 

[CNOTES]

SuperContest Picks - Week 14
December 9, 2017


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.


Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.


The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.


This year's contest has 2,748, which is an all-time record.


Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.


Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8


Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13




Week 14


1) Philadelphia +2 (782)
2) Minnesota -2.5 (757)
3) Seattle +2.5 (700)
4) Green Bay -3 (619)
5) Baltimore +5 (583)


SUPERCONTEST WEEK 14 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
New Orleans (PK) 183 Atlanta (PK) 243
Detroit (PK) 261 Tampa Bay (PK) 238
Chicago (+6.5) 394 Cincinnati (-6.5) 257
Indianapolis (+3) 97 Buffalo (-3) 424
Seattle (+2.5) 700 Jacksonville (+2.5) 481
Oakland (+4) 351 Kansas City (-4) 454
Minnesota (-2.5) 757 Carolina (+2.5) 535
Green Bay (-3) 619 Cleveland (+3) 389
San Francisco (+3) 572 Houston (-3) 260
Washington (+6) 477 L.A. Chargers (-6) 379
N.Y. Jets (PK) 564 Denver (PK) 285
Tennessee (-3) 222 Arizona (+3) 540
Philadelphia (+2) 782 L.A. Rams (-2) 408
Dallas (-4) 376 N.Y. Giants (+4) 452
Baltimore (+5) 583 Pittsburgh (-5) 318
New England (-11) 388 Miami (+11) 301


WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 0-5 0-5 0%
2 3-2 3-7 30%
3 2-3 5-10 33%
4 4-1 9-11 45%
5 1-4 10-15 40%
6 2-3 12-18 40%
7 0-5 12-23 34%
8 2-3 14-26 35%
9 3-2 17-28 38%
10 1-4 18-32 36%
11 4-1 22-33 40%
12 3-2 25-35 42%
13 5-0 30-35 46%
14 - - -
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

 

[CNOTES]

Gridiron Angles - Week 14
December 9, 2017



NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:


-- The Patriots are 11-0 ATS (10.00 ppg) since Dec 18, 2016 when they are off two consecutive 7+ wins.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:


-- The Bills are 0-11 ATS (-16.68 ppg) since Nov 15, 2009 coming off a home loss where they scored fewer than 14 points.


TOP NFL PLAYER ATS TREND:


-- The Buccaneers are 0-8 ATS (-8.88 ppg) since Nov 29, 2015 coming off a road game where Jameis Winston threw at least two touchdowns.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:


-- The Eagles are 10-0 OU (12.55 ppg) since Oct 02, 2005 as a dog after they threw at least 10 more passes than their season-to-date average last game.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:


-- The Seahawks are 0-11 OU (-10.64 ppg) since Nov 02, 2008 when they are not double digit favorite off a game as a dog of more than three points where they did not commit a turnover.

NFL BIBLE ATS ACTIVE TREND:


-- The Buccaneers are 0-10 ATS (-10.85 ppg) when they are at home after two away losses.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:


-- Teams which are away favorites after playing at least three straight games at home are 31-46 ATS. Active against Dallas.

NFL CHOICE TRENDS:


-- The Texans are 10-0-2 ATS (7.46 ppg) since Sep 14, 2014 as a favorite coming off a game where they scored fewer points than expected.


-- The Colts are 10-0 OU (12.50 ppg) since Dec 08, 2013 as a road dog coming off a game where they allowed at least 22 first downs.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday Night Best Bet
December 9, 2017


Week 14 SNF Best Bet


Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers


After arguably the most vicious NFL game of the year on MNF, the Pittsburgh Steelers have to quickly turn around on a short week and battle another hated AFC North rival under the bright primetime lights. This week it's a home game on SNF against the Ravens, and a win for Pittsburgh clinches the division.


Baltimore won't go down without a fight though as they cling to that 6th and final playoff spot in the AFC, as the Ravens have won three in a row and would love to get some revenge for a 26-9 home loss to this same Pittsburgh team earlier this season.


Pittsburgh (-4.5); Total set at 43.5


Chances are the reality of Pittsburgh clinching the division with a victory and the level of hatred in this rivalry will see plenty of air time for this game, especially after how Pittsburgh's game last week against the Bengals played out. But in reality, this isn't as big of a game for the Steelers as the situation suggests in the grand scheme of things.


Pittsburgh is three games up on Baltimore for the division title so even with a SU loss to Baltimore in this one, it will still take close to a monumental collapse by Pittsburgh to not eventually win the AFC North. Secondly, the Steelers have a huge home showdown with the Patriots next week and it will be that game that basically determines home field advantage in the AFC throughout the playoffs.


That's about as big as it gets for regular season games this time of year for the teams who've basically locked up a playoff spot, and while it's still the Ravens on the other side of the field, there will be a few Steelers players who can't help but have one eye on that showdown with New England next week.


It's for that reason I don't believe you can look at laying the points with the Steelers in this game because this spot has such the makings of a lookahead spot that I don't believe you can simply lay those points with confidence.


Pittsburgh never looks past Baltimore, but with this game coming as a precursor to that Patriots game, and sandwiched between the Bengals and Patriots games, if there ever was a spot Pittsburgh would take the Ravens lightly this would be it. And with the line move to it's current number after opening in the -6 neighborhood, all of the value has been sucked out of a play on the Ravens plus the points.


That leaves us with the total and given the overall scenario of the game (Pittsburgh's potential look-ahead, division on the line, division rematch) making a play on this total is something I can really get behind.


Although the Steelers are 10-2 SU, the thing you can trust the Steelers on the most from a point spread perspective is that they typically have a tougher time (at least offensively) on the road, and they generally play “up” or “down” to the level of their competition. Well, the former isn't a concern given this game is in Pittsburgh, and the latter is a little complicated given both “up” and “down” could apply to this specific game.


Pittsburgh could play “up” in the sense that it's still a big time AFC North rivalry game and the division is on the line, but could also play “down” knowing they are still likely to win the division with a loss this week and can't help but focus a bit on New England next week. But whether it turns out to be one or another, or most likely probably a bit of both, the common denominator there is that points will be had somewhere.


If Pittsburgh does indeed end up looking ahead to Week 15 too much, their defense -even more so now with the injuries they've suffered – isn't likely to be at their best. Pittsburgh's defense knows the offense tends to carry its own weight plus some when they are at home, and sloppy play and missed assignments can plague this Steelers defensive unit in a spot like this; just look at the Steelers defense against Green Bay a few weeks ago.


Remember, this game means everything to the Ravens who are trying to stay in the division hunt and keep their position atop the Wildcard heap, so an aggressive Ravens attack could easily take advantage of a sloppy Pittsburgh defense.


On the other side of the ball, the Steelers at home can be trusted to put up points. Ever since Pittsburgh was blown out 30-9 at home by Jacksonville, Pittsburgh has scored at least 29 points in all three home games since then, and this game shouldn't be any different. If the Steelers aren't at their best for whatever reason, look for this offense to do the bulk of the work and try to pull it out in the end. That's precisely what we saw from them in that win over the Packers a few weeks back and that game does have a few similarities in terms of motivation, situational spot etc.


Finally, what put's a play on the high side of this total on my final betting card on Sunday are two final things.


The first of those is the fact that this is also a division rematch game from earlier this year when the first game stayed below the posted total. Flipping that result in the rematch never tends to be a horrible idea and that's specifically true for this case.


Both teams are much more established in their identities offensively, and with this game likely lacking the brutal physicality past Steelers/Ravens games have had – because after MNF Pittsburgh/Cincinnati game the league probably doesn't want it, the Steelers probably physically don't want to take much of that, and this game doesn't really have the same “importance” in AFC North race as in the past – we do see more of an offensive explosion here.


The second and final reason I'm backing the 'over' for this game is the fact that VegasInsider.com shows about 80% of the action on this total already coming on the low side of this number as everyone sees Ravens/Steelers and thinks about a defensive slugfest.


But this meeting will be different for the variety of reasons I've already touched on in this piece, most notably the simple idea that this game doesn't mean a whole lot in the AFC North picture anymore. That typical Ravens/Steelers intensity will be dialed back a bunch as the 12-5-2 O/U run these two teams have going when playing in Pittsburgh get's one more 'over' added to it.

Best Bet: Over 43.5

 

[CNOTES]

Monday's Best Bet
December 9, 2017


NFL Week 14 MNF Betting Preview
New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

Week 14 primetime games are all about division rivalries, and after Atlanta knocked off New Orleans in a good TNF battle, football fans get the powerhouses in the AFC showing their stuff to end the week before the two of them meet in a huge game next week.


The “two” I am talking about are New England and Pittsburgh as their came in the Steel City in Week 15 will likely determine home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. Pittsburgh hosts Baltimore on SNF in a tricky spot, but the Patriots travel Miami on Monday night as they look to dispatch the Dolphins for the second time in three weeks.


New England (-11); Total set at 47


It was just back in Week 12 that the Dolphins travelled up to Foxborough as huge 17-point underdogs and ended up losing 35-17 to this New England squad. Similar to last year, the Patriots don't really care what number oddsmakers force them to cover, they bring home the money anyways as they've gone 6-0 ATS in their last six games and five of those six have had them laying about a TD or more. The 17 points they laid and covered against Miami two weeks ago was the biggest spread Patriots backers have had to deal with all year, so it's only fitting that with the venue change this number comes down a bit but still stays in double-digit range.


Oddsmakers know that bettors will continue to flock to making Patriots bets regardless, so they do tend to shade the point spreads that way. Even with the Dolphins coming off a dominant 35-9 win over Denver last week, nobody really wants to step in front of this Patriots train, especially when they beat this team in dominant fashion just two weeks ago.


However, if you ignore the actual team names in this contest and look at the scenario from a broad view, you'll quickly realize that this is an awful spot for a visiting team to be laying double-digits. It's that team that has to have a bit of a ho-hum attitude after beating this opponent by 18 points two weeks ago and knowing that their biggest game of the regular season is on deck.


This is also the fourth road game in five weeks for that visiting side, and eventually the situation and travel catches up to teams. Any team in that scenario would be in a bad spot to cover 11 points, and although it is the Patriots and all their greatness may negate a few of those concerns, following the 70%-plus bettors already laying the chalk with New England is not something I'm going to do here.


In fact, because it actually is New England, you can make the argument that their pedigree and history would suggest that laying all those points is even worse then originally thought. The Patriots are all about professionalism and getting wins and the thought process regarding that this week has got to be “get into Miami, stay healthy, and get out with a win.” New England knows they can smoke this team (they already have) but they've got bigger things to worry about in the grand scheme of things. If they can get out of South Beach with a win by any number, a win is a win, and then they can put all their attention on Pittsburgh next week.


Finally, we've got Miami's perspective who aren't likely to go anywhere this season, but would like to restore some professional pride after the beating they took up in New England recently. That game there was no Jay Cutler under center, and while he's not much of an upgrade over Matt Moore, he's still an upgrade nonetheless.


Miami would also love to take full advantage of a division rival that's probably looking past them this week, and there's nothing like capping off a rough year with a home win against the best division rival you've got.


It might not pan out for an outright win, but with the home team 10-1 ATS the last 11 times these two have hooked up, and New England having a 2-6 ATS run going on the road against a team with a losing record at home, expect the Dolphins to put up a valiant fight for the full 60 minutes as they come up short by a TD or less.



Best Bet: Miami +11

 

[CNOTES]

Essential Week 14 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday


Pittsburgh Steelers All-Pro wide receiver Antonio Brown averages just 5.5 catches and 62 receiving yards with just three total touchdowns in his 14 career games against the Baltimore Ravens.


Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 38.5)


The Bengals became only the third team leading by 10 or more points entering the fourth quarter to lose a game outright. NFL teams taking a 10-point or greater lead into the final frame are still 87-3 on the season.


Having trouble putting up points on the board in the second half isn’t a new problem for the Bengals. Cincinnati ranks 30th in third quarter scoring (2.5 points) and 31st in fourth quarter scoring (3.4 points).


LINE HISTORY: Most books opened with the Bengals favored by six points although a few spots in Vegas went with 5.5 instead. The spread seems to be holding at 6.5 at most locations. The total opened at 37 and has been bet up to 38.5.


TRENDS:


*The Bears are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
*The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.


Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (+2.5, 40.5)


The Vikings’ stopper unit ranks second in scoring defense and total defense after its smothering of the Atlanta Falcons last weekend. Julio Jones caught just two passes for 24 yards a week after hauling in 12 catches for 253 yards and two touchdowns against the Bucs. Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan totaled his fewest passing yards in a game (173) since 2013 and the Vikings kept the Falcons from hitting double digits.


Minnesota’s offense isn’t as prolific but the unit is being efficient with its scoring opportunities. The Vikings have scored touchdowns in 14 of their last 15 trips inside the red zone.


LINE HISTORY: Sportsbooks opened with the Vikings listed as 1-point away faves and the line has crept up to a 3-point spread at many shops. The total opened as high as 42 and has moved down to 40.5.


TRENDS:


*The Vikings are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games.
*The over is 7-3 in the Panthers’ last 10 games.


San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-2.5, 44.5)


It’s not a huge sample but Jimmy Garoppolo improved to 3-0 straight up and against the spread in the three games he’s started as a pro quarterback in the NFL. He would have started against the Texans last season as a member of the Patriots but picked up an injury the previous week against Dolphins. He would have studied the Pats’ game plan for attacking Houston’s defense. That might help him in his preparation for this weekend’s game.


LINE HISTORY: Houston opened as a 1.5-point home fave and has been bet up to 3-point chalk. The total has also moved up from 42.5 to 44.


TRENDS:


*The under is 4-1 in the Niners’ last five games.
*The over is 4-1 in the Texans’ last five home games.


Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns (+3, 40.5)


The Browns front-office shakeup shouldn’t affect much on the field – only that head coach Hue Jackson now knows he’s not coaching for his job the rest of the season. Cleveland Browns owners Jimmy and Dee Haslam assured the media Jackson would be the team’s head coach in 2018 despite his abysmal win-loss record (1-27) over the past two years.


LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened as large as 4-point favorites but the spread has dropped in favor of the home team. The total opened at 41 and has come down to 40 at some locations.


TRENDS:


*The Browns are 6-21-1 ATS under head coach Hue Jackson.
*The over is 8-1 in the Packers’ last nine road games.


Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 48.5)


The Chiefs will not have their top cornerback for an important interdivision game against the Oakland Raiders. Kansas City suspended DB Marcus Peters for his late-game antics when he tossed a flag thrown by a game official into the stands.


The Chiefs own one of the worst pass defenses in the league and their second cornerback, Darrelle Revis, was a street free agent a few weeks ago. The Raiders accumulated 417 passing yards in their home win against KC earlier this season.


LINE HISTORY: This spread is kind of in no-man’s land. Offshore and Vegas sportsbooks all opened above the key number (3) but some went high (4.5) and others went low (3.5). The spread is still hopping between 3.5 and 4.5, and it’s hard to tell whether the steam is moving the line up or down.


TRENDS:


*The Raiders are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
*The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
*The under is 18-7 in the last 25 matchups between these two sides.


Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals (+3, 44)


Arizona’s offense is struggling finding reliable receiving targets outside of future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald. The 34-year-old leads the Cards in catches with 82 – which is five more than the rest of the team’s receivers combined. Game planning to slow down a passing attack becomes much easier for opposing teams when there’s only one pass-catching threat on the field.


LINE HISTORY: The Titans opened as 3-point away faves and the spread hasn’t moved since. The total opened at 44 and has moved down a half or full point depending on where the book.


TRENDS:


*The Titans are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games.
*The Cards are 5-15-1 ATS against teams with winning records.


Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+3.5, 41.5)


Cowboys QB Dak Prescott didn’t seem to be bothered by the hand he injured last Thursday against the Redskins. More good news for Dallas backers: Linebacker Sean Lee is expected to his return on Sunday after missing the last three games with a sore hamstring. The Cowboys are 18-4 straight up and 15-7 ATS in the last 22 games he’s suited up and played.


LINE HISTORY: Books opened with the Giants getting six points when it was still thought Geno Smith would be under center for New York. The spread shrunk by 2.5 points once Eli Manning was renamed the starting quarterback.


TRENDS:


*The under is 4-1 in the Cowboys’ last five games.
*The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.


New York Jets at Denver Broncos (+1.5, 41.5)


The Broncos can’t make up their mind as to who their starting quarterback should be moving forward and it’s easy to tell why they are so confused. Denver is second last in pass completion percentage (57.5), third last in yards per attempt (5.7) and second last in interceptions thrown per game (1.5).


LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened as 1-point faves but the line flipped to Jets -1. The total opened at 40.5 and moved up to 41.5.


TRENDS:


*The Jets are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
*The Broncos are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games.


Washington Redskins at Los Angeles Chargers (-6, 46.5)


The Chargers opened the season 0-4 and were as large as 50/1 longshots to win the AFC West after Week 4. But thanks to the Bolts’ 6-2 bounce back and the Chiefs’ collapse they’re now +150 to win their division. LA plays at KC next Saturday in a game that could decision who wins the AFC West.


LINE HISTORY: Sportsbooks opened with the Chargers installed as 6.5-point home chalk and the spread has come down a half point at most shops.


TRENDS:


*The Chargers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.
*The over is 25-8 in Washington’s last 33 games.


Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 40)


The Seahawks are the most penalized team in the league this season with a good chunk of those flags coming by way of offensive holding (19) and false starts (18). The Jags own the league’s best pass rush 45 sacks despite blitzing on only 17.9 percent of their defensive snaps according to the Florida Times-Union.


LINE HISTORY: The Jags opened as 3-point home faves but have dropped down a half point to 2.5. The total opened 39 and has gone as high as 40.


TRENDS:


*The Seahawks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road games.
*The under is 5-1 in Jacksonville’s last six games.


Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5, 48)


The Rams had to alter their practice schedule this week because of the wildfires in surrounding areas. The wind blew smoke in the direction of the Rams’ practice facility on Wednesday forcing the team to do a light walkthrough at a gym on Cal Lutheran University’s campus.


“This time of the year, it actually served us well,” Rams coach Sean McVay told reporters. “We got a lot of good work in, got more reps than we would’ve otherwise than when you just do your walk-through and your normal practice.”


LINE HISTORY: The Rams opened as 1-point faves and many books now list them as 2-point chalk. The total opened as high as 51 and has moved down three points to 48.


TRENDS:


*The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
*The over is 14-4 in the Eagles’ last 18 road games.


Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5, 43.5)


The Ravens are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games against the Steelers. Keeping All-Pro wideout Antonio Brown in check is a big reason why Baltimore fares so well against its division rival.
Brown is averaging just 5.5 catches for 62 yards in 14 career games against the Ravens – and he’s only found pay dirt three times against the Ravens. That being said, Baltimore will not have its top cornerback, Jimmy Smith, on the field on Sunday because of a PED suspension and an injury.


LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as 6-point faves but the line dropped to 4.5. The total seems to be settling around 43 and 43.5.


TRENDS:


*The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 AFC North games.
*The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with winning records.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Sunday, December 10


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Ravens at Steelers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5, 43.5)


After rallying for a dramatic win to knock off one bitter division rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers return home to face another when they host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night. Winners of seven in a row, the Steelers can maintain their tenuous grip on the No. 1 seed in the AFC and wrap up the AFC North Division title with a victory.


Pittsburgh will be without a key player on both sides of the ball -- injured linebacker Ryan Shazier and suspended wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster -- as it vies for a season sweep of the Ravens. "We embrace the challenges of playing in this division -- how tough it is and the intentions of those we compete against," Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said. "We'll be energized by game time on Sunday. We'll be excited about defending our turf against a very good football team." Baltimore, which was dominated at home by Pittsburgh 26-9 in Week 4, has won three in a row and holds a one-game edge for the sixth and final playoff spot in the AFC. "It's a great rivalry," Ravens coach John Harbaugh said of facing the Steelers. "We love playing in it. It's the most physical game we play every single year. It's always tough coming out of the game in that you're going to have a lot of bumps and bruises for sure. We have respect for them."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Ravens (-0.5) - Steelers (-4) + home field (-3) = Steelers -6.5.

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened this AFC North battle as 6-point home chalk at most shops and money coming in on the road team dropped that number to -4.5. The total hit the betting board at 43.5 and briefly went up to 44 before returning to the opening number late in the week.

WEATHER REPORT: Kickoff will see 29 degrees and mostly cloudy - winds at 9mph with a 2% chance of precipitation

INJURY REPORT:


Ravens - LB C.J. Mosley (Probable, Neck), RB Alex Collins (Probable, Migraine), WR Jeremy Maclin (Questionable, Back), LB Za'Darius Smith (Questionable, Shoulder), G Jermaine Eluemunor (Questionable, Shoulder), CB Jimmy Smith (I-R, Achilles).


Steelers - WR Antonio Brown (Probable, Toe), TE Vance McDonald (Probable, Ankle), S Mike Mitchell (Probable, Ankle), LB T.J. Watt (Questionable, Knee), LB Tyler Matakevich (Questionable, Shoulder), LB James Harrison (Questionable, Back), LB Ryan Shazier (Out For Season, Spine), WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (Eligible Week 15, Suspension), OT Marcus Gilbert (Eligible Week 16, Suspension).

ABOUT THE RAVENS (7-5 SU, 6-5-1 ATS, 7-5 O/U): Baltimore has registered three shutouts this season and is allowing an average of 12 points during the three-game winning streak behind an opportunistic defense that leads the league in takeaways (29) and a turnover differential (plus-14). That defense will be missing starting cornerback Jimmy Smith, who was lost for the season after suffering an Achilles injury in last week's 44-20 romp over Detroit. The Ravens have the 31st-ranked passing game in the league, but Joe Flacco threw for a season-high 269 yards and a pair of touchdowns as the team rolled up a season-high point total last week. Running back Alex Collins, who ran for 82 yards on nine carries versus Pittsburgh in Week 4, has rushed for four TDs over the past three games.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS, 4-8 O/U): Pittsburgh will be without Shazier, who leads the team in tackles and interceptions but underwent surgery Wednesday night for a spinal injury suffered in the last-second win at Cincinnati. "We send our thoughts and prayers to Ryan and his family, obviously, but we have a game to prepare for. And we know that's what Ryan wants," said quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who struggled in the first meeting against the Ravens but has 10 touchdowns versus three interceptions in his last three games. Running back Le'Veon Bell, the NFL's leading rusher, gouged Baltimore for 144 yards and two scores on the ground on Oct. 1. Wideout Antonio Brown tops the league in receptions (88) and has six TDs in a streak of three straight 100-yard games.

TRENDS:


* Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.


* Over is 5-1 in Ravens last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.


* Over is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.


* Ravens are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road dog Ravens at a rate of 54 percent and the Under is getting 57 percent of the totals action

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack


Top 6 picks in Week 14 in the Westgate Super Contest:


6) San Francisco 49ers +3 (572)


5) Baltimore Ravens +5 (583)


4) Green Bay Packers -3 (619)


3) Seattle Seahawks +2.5 (700)


2) Minnesota Vikings, -2.5 (757)


1) Philadelphia Eagles, +2 (782)


Record of top 6 picks each week: 38-40

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 10
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


GB at CLE 01:00 PM
GB -2.5
O 38.5


MIN at CAR 01:00 PM
MIN -2.5
U 40.5


OAK at KC 01:00 PM
OAK +4.0
U 48.0


CHI at CIN 01:00 PM
CIN -6.0


IND at BUF 01:00 PM
IND +3.0
U 38.0


SF at HOU 01:00 PM
SF +1.5
U 45.5


DET at TB 01:00 PM
DET +1.0
U 47.5


DAL at NYG 01:00 PM
DAL -3.5
U 41.5


NYJ at DEN 04:05 PM
NYJ -1.0
O 40.5


WAS at LAC 04:05 PM
LAC -6.0
U 47.0


TEN at ARI 04:05 PM
TEN -2.5
U 42.0


SEA at JAC 04:25 PM
JAC -2.5
U 41.0


PHI at LAR 04:25 PM
PHI +1.0
U 47.0


BAL at PIT 08:30 PM
BAL +4.5
U 43.0

 

[CNOTES]

NFL notebook: Eagles' Wentz injures knee in win vs. Rams
December 10, 2017


Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz left Sunday's 43-35 win against the Los Angeles Rams on with a knee injury in the third quarter.


After the game, reports surfaced that said the Eagles believe Wentz might have a torn MCL. Wentz is headed for an MRI exam to determine the severity of the injury.


Wentz, who threw four touchdown passes, absorbed a punishing blow when trying to run in for a score. He made it to the end zone, but a holding penalty negated the score.


Nick Foles took over in the fourth quarter for the Eagles.


--New York Jets quarterback Josh McCown broke his left hand when he took a hit from Denver Broncos linebacker Shane Ray as he released a pass.


McCown, left the game under his own power and headed to the locker room for further examination of a left hand injury with 2:54 remaining in the third quarter of a 23-0 loss. After the game, the Jets announced McCown broke his hand.


Backup Bryce Petty, who replaced McCown, had come in for two plays earlier in the game when the starter was hit simultaneously by two defenders at the end of an 8-yard scramble.

--Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Ryan Shazier, who underwent spinal stabilization surgery Wednesday after sustaining a severe back injury against the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday night, remains hospitalized but continues to show gradual improvement.


Doctors are controlling and limiting his movement as they wait for the swelling and bruising in his back to subside, people familiar with his condition told ESPN's Adam Schefter on Sunday.


According to the report, it is premature to say whether Shazier will be able to play football again as the focus remains on his recovery. The team says it is concerned solely about his short- and long-term health.


A Pro Bowl selection last season, the 25-year-old Shazier spent Monday and Tuesday night at the University of Cincinnati Medical Center before being transferred to a University of Pittsburgh Medical Center facility.


--Oakland Raiders wide receiver Amari Cooper left midway through the second quarter with an apparent leg injury in the game against the Kansas City Chiefs.


Cooper was blocking on an outside run by DeAndre Washington when the ball carrier and a tackler rolled up on the wide receiver from behind. Trainers tended to Cooper on the field before the veteran wideout limped to the sideline under his own power. Trainers were seen working on Cooper's left ankle.


--Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive tackle Gerald McCoy sustained a biceps injury in the first quarter of the game against the Detroit Lions at Raymond James Stadium.


McCoy's did not return to the game and is headed for an MRI exam.


McCoy entered game with a team-leading five sacks to go along with 40 tackles and an interception this season.


--Buffalo Bills rookie quarterback Nathan Peterman was escorted to the locker room and evaluated for a concussion during the third quarter of the snow-ravaged game against the Indianapolis Colts.


Also, Buffalo wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin injured his right knee during the third quarter. He returned in the fourth quarter, however.


Peterman was injured after he dove at the end of a 2-yard run and was tackled by Colts defenders Antonio Morrison and Johnathan Hankins. There was no penalty on the play and Peterman appeared to hit his head on the ground.


--Houston Texans quarterback Tom Savage suffered a concussion in the second quarter and did not return for the second half against the San Francisco 49ers at NRG Stadium.


Savage was slow to his feet after he was hit in the end zone by 49ers defensive end Elvis Dumervil with just under 10 minutes remaining in the second quarter.


Savage entered the sideline medical evaluation tent following the drive and returned to the field when the Texans regained possession.


--Green Bay Packers cornerback Davon House suffered a back injury with about 11 minutes to play in the game with the Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium.


House was taken from the field on the back of an equipment cart and was ruled out for the remainder of the game. He was able to walk to the cart.


House was injured while covering Browns wide receiver Josh Gordon on a pass play.


--Tennessee Titans left tackle Taylor Lewan left Sunday's game against the Arizona Cardinals in the second quarter with a lower back injury and did not return.


After the game, the Titans said Lewan will undergo an MRI exam.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Today, Week 14
December 10, 2017


SCOREBOARD


Monday, Dec. 11


New England at Miami, 8:30 p.m. EST. Tom Brady and the Patriots have won eight games in row, and will clinch their ninth consecutive AFC East title with a win. But they'll have to do it without tight end Rob Gronkowski, who will serve a one-game suspension for a late hit against Buffalo last week. Meanwhile, Dolphins coach Adam Gase is 0-3 against the Patriots, who beat Miami 35-17 two weeks ago. The Dolphins have played more games on Monday night than any other team with 83, but this is their first since 2015.


---


STARS


Passing


- Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers, went 44 of 66 for 506 yards and two touchdowns, becoming the first quarterback in NFL history to top 500 yards passing three times and leading Pittsburgh past Baltimore 39-38.


- Matthew Stafford, Lions, passed for 381 yards and a TD with an injured throwing hand, and set up the winning field goal in Detroit's 24-21 win over Tampa Bay.


- Dak Prescott, Cowboys, threw three touchdown passes and finished 20 of 30 for 332 yards as Dallas topped the New York Giants 30-10.


- Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers, threw for a career-high 334 yards and a touchdown to help San Francisco win its second straight, 26-16 over Houston.


- Brett Hundley, Packers, finished 35 of 46 with three touchdowns, including a 25-yarder to Davante Adams in overtime, to lead Green Bay to a 27-21 win at Cleveland.


- Philip Rivers, Chargers, passed for 319 yards and two touchdowns in Los Angeles' fourth straight victory, 30-13 over Washington.


---


Rushing


- Jonathan Stewart, Panthers, ran for 103 yards and a career-high three touchdowns in Carolina's 31-24 victory over Minnesota.


- LeSean McCoy, Bills, scored on a 21-yard run with 1:33 left in overtime and finished with 156 yards rushing in Buffalo's 13-7 win over Indianapolis.


- Jordan Howard, Bears, ran for 147 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Chicago's 33-7 rout of Cincinnati, giving him consecutive 1,000 yard seasons to start his career.


- Todd Gurley, Rams, rushed for 96 yards and two TDs on 13 carries in Los Angeles' 43-35 loss to Philadelphia.


- Frank Gore, Colts, had a career-high 36 carries for 130 yards in Indianapolis' 13-7 overtime loss to Buffalo.


- Isaiah Crowell, Browns, rushed for 121 yards on 19 carries in Cleveland's 27-21 overtime defeat against Green Bay.


- Kareem Hunt, Chiefs, ran for 116 yards and a TD in Kansas City's 26-15 win over Oakland.


---


Receiving


- Antonio Brown, Steelers, caught 11 passes for 213 yards in Pittsburgh's 39-38 win over Baltimore.


- DeAndre Hopkins, Texans, had 149 yards receiving and two touchdowns in Houston's 26-16 loss to San Francisco.


- Rod Smith, Cowboys, had an 81-yard touchdown catch, finishing with five catches for 113 yards, and added a 15-yard TD run in Dallas' 30-10 win over the New York Giants.


- Kendall Wright, Bears, caught 10 passes for 107 yards in Chicago's 33-7 win at Cincinnati.


- Eric Ebron, Lions, had 10 catches for 94 yards in Detroit's 24-21 victory at Tampa Bay.


- Tyrell Williams, Chargers, caught four passes for 132 yards, including a 75-yard touchdown, in Los Angeles' 30-13 win over Washington.


---


Special Teams


- Matt Prater, Lions, kicked a 46-yard field goal in the closing seconds to lead Detroit to a 24-21 victory at Tampa Bay.


- Phil Dawson, Cardinals, made field goals from 47, 23, 32 and 35 yards - and missed from 40 - to account for Arizona's scoring in a 12-7 win over Tennessee.


- Blake Countess, Rams, returned a blocked punt by Michael Thomas 16 yards for a touchdown in Los Angeles' 43-35 loss to Philadelphia.


- Trevor Davis, Packers, had a 65-yard punt return to set up a touchdown in Green Bay's 27-21 overtime victory at Cleveland.


- Jaydon Mickens, Jaguars, set up a score with a 72-yard punt return to help Jacksonville beat Seattle 30-24.


---


Defense


- Sean Lee, Cowboys, had 18 total tackles and an interception in Dallas' 30-10 victory over the New York Giants.


- Brandon Graham, Eagles, scored on a 16-yard fumble return in Philadelphia's 43-35 win over the Los Angeles Rams.


- Bashaud Breeland, Redskins, returned an interception of Kellen Clemens' pass 96 yards for a touchdown in Washington's 30-13 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.


- Chris Long, Eagles, had a strip-sack of Jared Goff and Rodney McLeod recovered the football to set up the go-ahead field goal in Philadelphia's 43-35 win over the Los Angeles Rams.


---


STREAKS & STATS


It took 13 games, but Carolina finally got at an interception from its starting cornerbacks. Daryl Worley and James Bradberry both intercepted Minnesota's Case Keenum in a 31-24 win after being shut out the previous 12 games. ... Detroit's Matthew Stafford made his 109th consecutive start despite being limited in practice after his right hand was stepped on during the previous week at Baltimore. It's the third-longest among NFL quarterbacks behind Matt Ryan (128) and Philip Rivers (119). Stafford directed a winning drive in the fourth quarter or overtime for the 32nd time in his career, leading Detroit to a 24-21 win at Tampa Bay. ... Denver snapped its eight-game losing streak, its longest losing string since joining the NFL in 1970, with a 23-0 shutout of the New York Jets. It was the Broncos' first win in 70 days.


---

MILESTONES


Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald had 44 yards receiving in the Cardinals' 12-7 win over Tennessee, giving him 15,311 for his career to surpass Randy Moss (15,292) for third place on the NFL's career list. Only Jerry Rice (22,895) and Terrell Owens (15,934) have more. ... Indianapolis' Frank Gore finished with a career-high 36 carries for 130 yards in the Colts' 13-7 overtime loss at Buffalo. It was his first 100-yard game in 15 outings, since gaining 101 yards in a 34-6 win at Miami on Dec. 12. It was also Gore's 42nd career 100-yard game, tying him with O.J. Simpson for 16th on the NFL list. ... Kansas City's Kareem Hunt ran for 116 yards in the Chiefs' 26-15 win over Oakland, giving him 1,046 yards rushing for the season and making him the second rookie in team history to top the 1,000-yard. Joe Delaney, whose career was cut tragically short when he drowned while trying to save three kids in a Louisiana pond, accomplished the feat in 1981. ... Philip Rivers of the Los Angeles Chargers became the third quarterback in NFL history to pass for at least 3,500 yards in 10 consecutive seasons, joining Peyton Manning (13, 1998-2010) and Drew Brees (13, 2005-17). Rivers also moved ahead of Warren Moon for ninth place in NFL history in career yards passing. ... Denver's Demaryius Thomas caught the 56th TD pass of his career, surpassing Hall of Fame tight end Shannon Sharpe for second in franchise history. Wide receiver Rod Smith's 68 TD receptions are the most all-time.


---


FLY EAGLES FLY


Philadelphia improved to 11-2 and clinched the NFC East with a 43-35 victory over the Los Angeles Rams. The Eagles, who finished in last place in the division last year, completed a worst-to-first turnaround. At least one team has won its division the season after finishing in or tied for last place in 14 of the past 15 seasons. Philadelphia's title celebration was likely tempered by a serious knee injury to quarterback Carson Wentz.


---


SUPER CAM


Carolina's Cam Newton had a 62-yard run to Minnesota's 8-yard line to set up the winning touchdown in the Panthers' 31-24 win over the Vikings. Newton, who had a 69-yard run in Week 10, is the first quarterback since the 1970 merger to have multiple rushes of 60 or more rushes in a single season.


---


YOUNG BEARS


Chicago's Jordan Howard rushed for 147 yards and two touchdowns in the Bears' 33-7 win at Cincinnati, making him the first player in franchise history to rush for at least 1,000 yards in each of his first two NFL seasons. Mitchell Trubisky passed for 271 yards with a touchdown and added a 4-yard TD run in today's win, becoming the first rookie quarterback in team history with a passing TD and a rushing TD in a single game since Jim McMahon in 1982.


---


BACK IN THE END ZONE


After missing some scoring opportunities last week in Los Angeles, Cleveland's Josh Gordon was confident he and DeShone Kizer would connect against Green Bay. They did just that on the Browns' first play, hooking up for 38 yards. Moments later, Kizer threaded a perfect pass over the middle to Gordon, who made a leaping catch in the end zone for his first TD since Dec. 15, 2013. When he returned to the sideline, Gordon pulled off his helmet and put on a pair of dark sunglasses, then strutted in celebration before hugging Jackson.


---


MANNING'S RETURN


Giants quarterback Eli Manning got a standing ovation while taking the field, a week after being benched in favor of Geno Smith. Manning, who threw a 1-yard TD pass to Rhett Ellison late in the second quarter, finished 31 of 46 for 228 yards, along with two late interceptions. The game capped a hectic week for the Giants that started Monday with the firing of second-year coach Ben McAdoo and general manager Jerry Reese and saw Steve Spagnuolo promoted from defensive coordinator to interim coach.


---


HUNTING JAGUARS


Blake Bortles threw two perfect passes for touchdowns, Jaydon Mickens set up another score with a 72-yard punt return and the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Seattle Seahawks 30-24 on Sunday. The Jaguars (9-4) intercepted three passes by Russell Wilson, including two on deep balls, and won for the sixth time in their last seven games. This victory, coupled with Tennessee's loss at Arizona, moved Jacksonville atop the AFC South. It's the first time since 2010 that the Jaguars have had the outright division lead this late in a season.


---


WENTZ AND GOFF


For the eighth time since the 1970 merger, quarterbacks taken No. 1 and No. 2 overall in the same draft squared off with the Rams' Jared Goff - the first pick overall in 2016 - and Philadelphia's Carson Wentz - who went No. 2. Wentz threw for 291 yards and four touchdowns before leaving with a knee injury in the Eagles' 43-35 win. Goff threw for 199 yards and two touchdowns for Los Angeles.


---


RARE RUSSELL


Russell Wilson was intercepted three times in Seattle's 30-24 loss at Jacksonville. It was the first time this season and the fourth time in 105 career games that Wilson was picked off three times. It was his first game with three or more picks since throwing five against Green Bay in December 2016.


---


SIDELINED

Philadelphia's Carson Wentz, Houston's Tom Savage, the Jets' Josh McCown and Buffalo's Nathan Peterman each left their respective games with injuries. Two sources familiar with the injury told The Associated Press that doctors believe Wentz has torn his left anterior cruciate ligament and will miss the rest of the season and playoffs. Wentz needs an MRI to confirm the severity of the injury. Both people spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to release the information. ... In Houston, Savage was cleared to re-enter the game against the San Francisco 49ers for one series after sustaining a concussion. He threw two incompletions on that drive, and Houston's team doctor approached him after he returned to the sideline after that possession. ... In snowy Buffalo, Peterman went 5 of 10 for 57 yards before being sidelined by a head injury late in the third quarter against Indianapolis. ... McCown left the game against Denver twice because of hard hits, including a clean shot by Shane Ray in the third quarter that left McCown with a broken left hand. ... Seahawks linebacker Bobby Wagner left against Jacksonville in the third quarter with a hamstring injury and did not return. Fellow linebacker K.J. Wright (concussion) left the field late in the third quarter. ... Raiders wide receiver Amari Cooper left in the second quarter against Kansas City with a right leg injury when he was blocking downfield on a run by DeAndre Washington and a defender rolled into the back of him.


---


SPEAKING


''My No. 1 thought going into it was to keep our hopes alive to make the playoffs. At the end of the day, whatever happens, happens. Whenever I'm called upon, I'll be ready. In the meantime, we're still in this.'' - Green Bay quarterback Brett Hundley, who threw three touchdown passes in a 27-21 overtime win at Cleveland that kept the Packers' playoff hopes alive with Aaron Rodgers poised to return next week.


---


''It feels like 100 years.'' - Denver quarterback Trevor Siemian after the Broncos snapped an eight-game skid with their first win in 70 days, 23-0 over the New York Jets.

 

[CNOTES]

Broken hand clouds rest of McCown's season
December 10, 2017

DENVER -- New York Jets quarterback Josh McCown's improbable career resurgence has taken a hit.


McCown, in the midst of his best season, suffered a broken left hand in Sunday's 23-0 loss to the Denver Broncos and it's uncertain whether he'll be able to play again this season. The Jets (5-8) have three games left.


The 38-year-old McCown, who has played for eight teams over a 15-year career, had taken every offensive snap for the Jets prior to Sunday's game. He had compiled 2,880 yards passing with 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions with a 96.7 passer rating leading up to the game against Denver, which snapped an eight-game losing streak.


But that productivity was nowhere to be seen against a resurgent Broncos defense. McCown was sidelined briefly after suffering a hip injury in the first half, and sustained the fracture to his non-throwing hand late in the third quarter, when he was knocked to the ground by Broncos linebacker Shane Ray an instant after releasing a pass.


"When I threw, I got hit and kind of got rolled up," McCown said. "He kind of rolled over me and either a knee or a foot or something of his caught my hand and it bent funny. I knew when it happened something wasn't right."


McCown was 6 of 12 for 46 yards before being sidelined and Bryce Petty, who came on for the injured McCown on both occasions, finished 2 of 9 for 14 yards.


Jets head coach Todd Bowles said he's unsure whether McCown will be able to play again this season.


"We've got a couple more tests to run. I don't know for sure. We'll see," Bowles said.


McCown said he would do what he could to get back on the field. New York plays at New Orleans next Sunday.


"I'll do whatever I can to get ready to go and we'll see where that leaves us," McCown said. "We still have some more tests and things that we can do, but my heart is with these guys. I want to finish with these guys. If I can be out there, I'd love to be out there."


McCown fought back tears when asked at his postgame news conference about what this season meant to him, his productive play at this stage of his career and the possibility that the season could come to a premature end.


"It's been the best because of the guys, not numbers, you know?" an emotional McCown said. "It's been the best because of the group of men in the locker room. I'm just proud to be a part of it and I'm so thankful they let me be a part of this team. We'll see what happens, but if I can finish I'd love to finish. We'll see what the tests say."


Bowles said that if McCown is unable to play, Petty will get the start.


Petty said he'll be ready if that proves to be the case, but noted that it was tough to see McCown go down with an injury because of what he has meant to the team.


"He pours his heart and soul into the guys," Petty said. "Whether he can go or not, you never want to see him hurt. We have to pick up the slack in the room. It is going to be a big opportunity for us, but we are going to have to replace him, and make him proud, too, just as much as anybody else."

 

[CNOTES]

MNF - Patriots at Dolphins
December 10, 2017


LAST WEEK


The Patriots (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) took another step towards a 14th AFC East title in the last 15 seasons. New England cruised past Buffalo, 23-3 to pick up its eighth consecutive victory, while cashing as 7 ½-point favorites. Stephen Gostkowski kicked three field goals in the first half to give the Patriots a 9-3 halftime lead, while running back Rex Burkhead rushed for a pair of second half touchdowns to give New England the 20-point win.


Tom Brady failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time since the opening week loss to Kansas City as he threw for 258 yards and one interception. The pick ending up costing the Patriots as Rob Gronkowski dove on Buffalo cornerback Tre’Davious White after the play was over, resulting in a one-game suspension for the New England tight end. Bill Belichick’s team cashed for the sixth straight game, while the Pats won its 14th consecutive road contest since the start of last season.


The Dolphins (5-7 SU, 4-6-2 ATS) snapped a five-game losing streak in last Sunday’s 35-9 rout of the slumping Broncos. Miami kept Denver’s offense out of the end zone as the only Broncos’ touchdown came on an interception return for a score. The Dolphins had their own pick-six as second-year cornerback Xavien Howard returned a Trevor Siemian interception for a touchdown to give Miami a 16-3 halftime advantage.


Miami also produced a pair of safeties to grab its first victory since Week 7 against the Jets, while winning by more than a touchdown for only the third time since Adam Gase took over as head coach in 2016. The Dolphins improved to 3-2 at Hard Rock Stadium, as running back Kenyon Drake rushed for 120 yards on 23 yards to go along with a 42-yard touchdown to solidify his spot as the top back for Miami.

OVER THE TOP


The Dolphins eclipsed the OVER for the sixth consecutive week, while allowing less than 27 points for the first time since a Week 6 victory at Atlanta. Miami’s offense didn’t break the 24-point mark in any of the five games during their skid, as the Dolphins started the season with five straight UNDERS prior to this current OVER streak.


New England is going the opposite direction from a totals standpoint as the Pats cashed the OVER in each of their first four games. Since that start, the defending Super Bowl champions are currently on a 6-2 UNDER run, while allowing 17 points or less in each of the past eight contests.

ROAD DOMINATION


As mentioned above, the Patriots have won 14 straight regular season games away from Foxboro (15 in a row if you include the epic comeback in last season’s Super Bowl). In that span, New England has posted an incredible 12-2 ATS record with both non-covers coming against the Jets. Monday will mark the third time in this stretch that the Patriots will be listed as a double-digit road favorite, as New England cashed in victories last season at Cleveland and San Francisco.


PREVIOUS MATCHUP


These AFC East rivals hooked up two weeks ago at Gillette Stadium as the Patriots ripped the Dolphins, 35-17 to cash as 17-point favorites. New England executed a fake punt to perfection on its opening drive, leading to Burkhead two-yard touchdown run, while Brady hit Gronkowski on a five-yard strike for an early 14-0 lead. The Dolphins took advantage of a muffed snap to Brady as Reshad Jones returned a fumble 14 yards for a score to get Miami on the board.


Miami didn’t any closer after that as Brady threw three more touchdown passes, while running back Dion Lewis rushed for 112 yards on 15 carries. New England has captured five of its past six meetings with Miami since 2014, but the Patriots have dropped three of their last four visits to Hard Rock Stadium, as three of those contests took place in December or January.


CHALK YOU VERY MUCH


The favorites continue to win on Monday night football as the streak was extended to eight consecutive weeks following Pittsburgh’s comeback triumph at Cincinnati in Week 13. Although the Steelers didn’t cash as 4 ½-point favorites, the chalk owns an 8-3 ATS record in the past 11 Monday night affairs. The OVER was on a 6-0 run prior to an UNDER breaking that streak in Week 12 between Houston and Baltimore, followed by a PUSH in Cincinnati.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER


VegasInsider.com Joe Nelson points out that this heavy number has been tough to cover this season in the NFL, “Double-digit road favorites are 0-3 ATS in the NFL this season and on 9-27 ATS run league-wide going back to December of 2009 though the Patriots are 5-5 ATS in the role under Belichick since 2000. The only SU loss for Belichick as a double-digit road favorite with the Patriots came in Miami in Week 17 of the 2016 season with the Dolphins winning 20-10 as a 10-point home underdog, a stunning loss that handed Denver the top seed in the AFC.”


Trends expert Vince Akins provides a play-on system for New England, “The Patriots are 12-0 ATS since Oct 16, 2016 coming off a game where they allowed less than 18 first downs.” Three of those victories came this season by an average score of 32-9, as New England was in this situation last week at Buffalo.


Meanwhile, Akins supplies a trend that can keep Miami’s current OVER streak going, “The Dolphins are 9-0 OU (since Dec 4, 2016 coming off a game where they scored more points than Vegas expected.” Two of those OVERS occurred at home in 2016, but it included the OVER against Tampa Bay in which the Buccaneers scored a meaningless touchdown as time expired.


BOOKMAKER’S TAKE


Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu says that the home team is gaining support in the underdog role, “Bettors divided as the public is promptly on the Pats while the pros like Miami. We really only move lines based on sharp action so that’s why you see the dip toward the Dolphins. Currently, the square money is backing New England to the tune of 75 percent of the tickets. The money handle is almost even, with just a few more dollars on the home team.”

 

[CNOTES]

december nfl best bets & opinions ( based on 5 units )


date w-l-t % units record


12/10/2017 16-11-0 59.25% +19.50
12/07/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/04/2017 0-1-1 0.00% -5.50
12/03/2017 11-17-0 39.29% -38.50


Totals..........27 - 31........46.55%............-35.50


best bets:......................ats.................... ..units.........................o/u....................units


12/10/2017..................6 - 3....................+13.50..........................5 - 3.................+8.50
12/07/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50............................0 - 1.................-5.50
12/03/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50............................0 - 0..................push
12/03/2017..................5 - 5.....................-2.50............................5 - 5..................-2.50


Totals..........................11 - 10.................+0.00...........................10 - 9.................+ 0.50

 

[CNOTES]

Betting Recap - Week 14
December 11, 2017


Overall Notes


NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 14 RESULTS


Wager Favorites-Underdogs


Straight Up 10-5
Against the Spread 9-6


Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 8-7


Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 5-9-1


The largest underdogs to win straight up
Bears (+6, ML + ) at Bengals, 33-7
Cardinals (+3, ML + ) vs. Titans, 12-7
Panthers (+2.5, ML + ) vs. Vikings, 31-24


The largest favorite to cover
Chargers (-6) vs. Redskins, 30-13
Chiefs (-4.5) vs. Raiders, 26-15
Cowboys (-4) at Giants, 30-10


Packing It In?


-- The Green Bay Packers posted their second consecutive victory, and third straight cover, with an overtime win on the road against the Cleveland Browns. The Packers entered the fourth quarter down 21-7, but backup QB Brett Hundley led them to the 14-point comeback, forcing OT. Then, QB DeShone Kizer was picked off in Cleveland territory, and the Pack had a short field to work with in the extra session. The Packers were 0-3 SU/ATS in the first three games QB Aaron Rodgers was hurt and/or he missed, but they have won three out of the past five while going 4-1 ATS to stay in the playoff hunt. Now, Rodgers is primed and ready to return for the final three games with a playoff spot within reach. The 'over' is 3-0 in the past three for Green Bay, and 5-1 over their past six outings, too.


Positive Charge


-- The Los Angeles Chargers blasted the Washington Redskins so badly (30-13) that head coach Jay Gruden was "at a loss for words" in his post-game presser. The Bolts have now won four in a row, and they're 7-2 SU/ATS since starting out 0-4 SU/0-3-1 ATS over their first four outings. The Chargers have found a way to win the close games, something that eluded them earlier in the season. Defense has also been a major part of their turnaround, as they're allowing just 9.7 PPG over the past three. The 'under' is an impressive 7-1 over their past eight outings, and 9-3 over the past 12 contests.
Total Recall


-- It was a strange week for totals, as the games Vegas expected to be shootouts were filled with defense, and some of the games expected to be lower-scoring turned into offensive showcases. And, of course, we had a snow-filled battle in the Indianapolis-Buffalo (36.5). Several inches of snow fell on the heads of the Colts and Bills, and we had a 7-7 battle go to overtime before the Bills ripped off a game-winning TD scamper through the flakes.


-- Sunday's game with the highest total (48.5), Oakland-Kansas City, never quite got off the ground and 'over' bettors were fighting to get back into it all day. That's because the teams totaled just three points in the first quarter because rallying for 41 total points. The Miami-New England (48) is still pending, but the Detroit-Tampa Bay (48) game also never quite got off the ground to develop as an offensive shootout. And, of course, Thursday's New Orleans-Atlanta (52) battle was an unexpected defensive battle. The only game Vegas fingered as a high-scoring showcase which turned out to be that, and more, was the Philadelphia-L.A. Rams (47.5) battle.


-- The three lowest totals on the board from Sunday -- Indianapolis-Buffalo (36.5), Green Bay-Cleveland (38.5) and Chicago-Cincinnati (40) -- went 1-1-1 to the 'under'. We covered the snow game above, and the Pack spoiled the 'under' with two fourth-quarter touchdowns to force OT and kill 'under' bettors. With :17 left in regulation, the Packers scored a TD. And the Bears-Bengals game opened at 37.5 before closing at 40. Anyone who bet the 'over' in this game before Sunday likely cashed a winning ticket.


-- The 'Over/under' finished 1-1 in the first two primetime games during Week 14, and the 'over' is 25-17-1 (59.5%) through the first 43 primetime games of the 2017 season with Monday's New England Patriots-Miami Dolphins game pending. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.


Injury Report


-- Eagles QB Carson Wentz (knee) is feared to have suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament to his left knee in the NFC showdown against the Rams. He'll have an MRI on Monday to confirm the results.


-- Jets QB Josh McCown (hand) suffered a broken left (non-throwing hand) and he might be done for the remainder of the season.


-- Titans QB Marcus Mariota (knee) was playing through a knee injury, although he said after the game that he is expected to be fine.


Looking Ahead


-- The Bears travel to meet the Lions (-6.5) on Saturday afternoon, and the Bears haven't been doing well against division foes lately. Chicago is 1-3-1 ATS in their past five against NFC North teams, and 0-4-1 ATS in their past five against NFC teams overall. The Lions are 3-0-1 ATS in their past four against teams with a losing overall mark, but just 1-4 ATS across their past five at home. In this series, Chicago is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings, but just 2-5 ATS in their past seven trips to Detroit. The 'over' is 4-1 in the past five meetings at Ford Field, too.


-- The red-hot Chargers hit the road to battle the Chiefs (-1) in a key AFC West battle. Both teams are going in completely different directions than when they met back on Sept. 24 in Southern California. The Chiefs came away with a 24-10 win, dropping the Bolts to 0-3 SU/0-2-1 ATS at the time. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings in this series. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their past five trips to Arrowhead, although just 2-6 ATS in the past eight meetings in this series. The 'under' is also 5-2 in the past seven meetings.


-- The Jaguars are heavily favored (-11.5) to knock off the division rival Texans. Houston is 4-9 ATS in their past 13 against teams with a winning record, 1-5 ATS in their past six AFC South battles and 1-7 ATS in their past eight road games against a team with a winning home record. The Jags are 6-1 ATS in their past seven division battles, and 5-2 ATS in the past seven overall. The road team has hit in six of the past seven meetings, with Houston 5-1 ATS in the past six trips to J'ville.


-- The Ravens have a bitter taste in their mouth after letting a big win slip away in Pittsburgh on Sunday night. They'll look to take out their frustration on the winless Browns. Baltimore is 11-2 ATS in their past 13 AFC North battles, and 4-1-1 ATS in the past six games overall. Cleveland is 2-13-1 ATS in their past 16 divisional games, and 7-20 ATS across their past 27 home outings. The Ravens have covered four straight in this series, and they're 7-1-1 ATS in the past nine trips to Cleveland. The 'over' has hit in four straight in Cleveland, too.


-- The Rams look to rebound after a disappointing home loss against the Eagles. They're 6-2 ATS in their past eight overall, and 4-1 ATS in their past five on the road. The Seahawks have had a knack for covering in Week 15, going 5-0-1 ATS over their past six seasons. In this series, the 'under' is 5-0 in the past five in Seattle, and 15-5-1 in the past 21 meetings. The Rams are 2-8 ATS in the past 10 trips to Seattle, and the home team is 7-2 ATS in the past nine in this series.


-- The Patriots and Steelers square off in an important game with plenty of playoff implications in the AFC. New England has covered four of their past five trips to Heinz Field, and they're 12-4 ATS in the past 16 meetings overall. The 'over' is 5-2 in the past seven battles in the Steel City, and 9-4 in the past 13 meetings overall between these teams.


-- The Falcons meet the Buccaneers on Monday night. Atlanta has covered six of their past eight NFC South battles, and they're 4-1 ATS in their past five overall. On the flip side, the Bucs are 1-10 ATS in their past 11 against NFC foes and 0-3-1 ATS in their past four against teams with a winning mark. They're also 0-5 ATS in their past five divisional outings.

 

[CNOTES]

Books win small in Week 14
December 11, 2017


Las Vegas sports books got a bit of a break with the Baltimore Ravens (+6) covering the spread in their 39-38 loss at Pittsburgh, which helped most betting shops show a small profit on the day.


However, the big story Sunday was the Philadelphia Eagles (-1) possibly losing quarterback Carson Wentz for the season with an ACL injury suffered in their 43-35 win at the Los Angeles Coliseum against the Rams. The books lost a bunch on the decision, but the Wentz injury drastically changed the entire complexion of the NFC playoff race and the odds offered around town.


"We bumped the Eagles up to 10-to-1 to win after the injury and we'll review on Monday to decide where we go from there," said Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay shortly after the injury. "The NFC really is jammed packed with Super Bowl contenders on top and when you look at the other QB's in comparison to (back-up) Nick Foles you've guys like Case Keenum and Jared Goff. There's no Tom Brady-type in the NFC."


Korngay also noted Cam Newton and Drew Brees, but his point was that the NFC is deep and there are a lot of green QB's put at the forefront with just three weeks to go until the playoffs start. It's not such a crazy idea seeing the Rams, Saints or Vikings in the Super Bowl. But on Sunday morning, it appeared the Eagles were on their way which is why they the NFC's top choice to the Super Bowl at 4/1 odds. That's all up in the air now.


As for Sunday's Week 14 action, the books showed a small profit on the day thanks to the Ravens covering the spread that ran up from Pittsburgh being a 5.5-point favorite up to -6 by kickoff. After the first 13 games of the day it ended up being a grind for both the bettors and bookmakers.


"It was pretty much a wash with the Eagles covering," said MGM Resorts race and sports VP Jay Rood prior to the Steelers decision. "We needed the Eagles early in the week, but it flipped."


Large money had come in on the favored Rams pushing the number to as high as -2.5, but sharp money flooded the books with Eagles money making them as high as -2 by kickoff. In a playoff-type atmosphere in Los Angeles, the Eagles came away with the win aided by back-up QB Nick Foles making a few key throw to seal the win.


While the action was large on the Eagles-Rams game, one of the major books in town saw a slight dip in volume. "Handle was short this week from what we've been seeing, but that's typical when the rodeo is in town," said Rood.


The National Finals Rodeo basically takes over the Las Vegas Strip when their annual event comes to town, and it's a pretty cool vibe they bring all over the casinos, but the reality is that the crowd takes over a bunch of rooms and they don't bet the NFL as much a regular folks for some reason. However, Kornegay said he didn't see as much of a drop off as Rood who has 10 books lined up and down the prime strip.


"We (needed) the Ravens to show a small profit on the day, and the Steelers make us a small loser. But this has been the lightest action on a Sunday night game all season," said Rood.


CG Technology books and Station Casinos also reported a small win on the day thanks to the Ravens covers despite both chain of books also taking it on the chin with Eagles. Philadelphia is now sitting alone atop the NFC at 11-2 (10-3 against the spread) following the Panthers (+2.5) 31-24 home win over the Vikings (10-3).


The Vikings had covered their last seven games and won eight straight prior to the loss. In Week 15, they get to face the hapless Bengals who lost 33-7 at home in the Jungle to the Bears (+6), a game that turned out well for the house. MGM books had the Bears +230 on the money-line, the highest price among the five underdogs that covered on the day.


Favorites went 8-6 ATS overall and the 'under' cashed in eight of the 14 games.


"One of our biggest losses of the day was the Bills," said Rood. The Bills captured an improbable 13-7 overtime home win against the Colts (+3.5). The total dropped from 40 to 36 because of a wild storm in Buffalo where the snow kept piling on.


"I think it was one of those things that snuck up on us where both the sharps and us didn't realize the magnitude of how bad the weather actually was," said Kornegay. "We were monitoring the weather by the minute, but it was way worse than we expected. And the fact we didn't get a lot of sharp play on the 'under' shows they didn't realize it either."


The Jaguars 30-24 home win over the Seahawks (+2.5) turned out to be Station Casinos best win of the day. This was game between two stout defenses that had Jacksonville up 3-0 at the half making 'under' 40.5 look to be a great bet. But then the flood gates opened as the Jaguars used defense, special teams and offense to secure the win that was much large than the score indicates.


The biggest roar of the day from the sports book crowd was when the Packers (-2.5) scored a touchdown in overtime to win 27-21 at winless Cleveland (0-13). Sharps loved the Browns, again, and drove the number down from +3.5 to +2.5, but the public loved the Packers against the Browns. Most bettors would have their Packers bet by a hook had the Packers simply kicked a field goal in overtime to win, but the theme stayed true and Cleveland got the worst of it. With the Broncos 23-0 home victory against the Jets (-1), the Browns are once again the worst cover team in football at 3-10 ATS. The Broncos are now 3-9-1 ATS.


Other notes from Week 14 saw the 49ers win for the third time in four weeks and two straight behind QB Jimmy Garoppolo with their spirited 26-16 win at Houston. The Chiefs and Chargers stayed tied atop the AFC West at 7-6 with their wins as favorites and the Cowboy's buried the Giants (+3.5) in Eli Manning's return as the starter, 30-10.


Moving forward into Week 15 is the big question is about the health of Eagles QB Carson Wentz. The very thing we all love about Wentz is his toughness and willingness to throw his body around for a first down is the very thing that may cost him his season. In possibly his last play of 2017, he threw his body over the goal-line for a TD, but finally paid the price. Hopefully it all turns out well, but based on 10/1 adjusted Super Bowl odds, the Westgate is showing they believe he's done.

 

[CNOTES]

Doctors think Eagles QB Wentz tore ACL
December 11, 2017


PHILADELPHIA (AP) Eagles coach Doug Pederson has confirmed that star quarterback Carson Wentz has a torn left ACL and will miss rest of the season and playoffs.


Wentz, a favorite in the NFL MVP race, had an MRI on Monday that confirmed the severity of the injury. Wentz was hurt late in the third quarter at Los Angeles. Backup Nick Foles rallied the Eagles (11-2) to a win that secured the NFC East title and put them in first place in the conference with three games remaining.


The Eagles have overcome several key injuries and now have to move forward without their most indispensable player. Nine-time Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters, return specialist/running back Darren Sproles, star linebacker Jordan Hicks and special-teams captain Chris Maragos already went down for the season.

 

[CNOTES]

Week 15 Opening Odds
December 11, 2017

Eagles Adjusted


Prior to Week 14, the Philadelphia Eagles were favorites (+200) to win the NFC and carried the second-lowest odds (+500) to win Super Bowl LII at BookMaker.eu.


If Wentz suffered a season-ending knee injury Sunday, oddsmakers at BookMaker.eu would adjust the Eagles’ chances to win the NFC to +400 and the Super Bowl to +1000.


Regarding the weekly odds for Philadelphia, there would be a 3- to 4-point dropoff in terms of value to the spread between Wentz and Nick Foles.


Western PA Showdown


Since 1998, the Patriots are 11-3 against Pittsburgh.


Over the last four years, New England is 4-0 straight up and 3-0-1 against the spread against the Steelers, averaging 36.5 points during that stretch.


With the Pats still to play Monday night, the Week 15 matchup is off the board. If there are no major injuries Monday, BookMaker.eu will open the Patriots as 2- to 3-point favorites.


NFC West Matchup


The Rams opened as 1.5-point favorites at Seattle in Week 15.


This marks just the second time since 1985 that the Rams have been favored on the road against the Seahawks (1/2/11, 9/10/00). Early action on the home team has moved the spread to a pick ‘em.


Jimmy G to the Rescue


Prior to Week 15, San Francisco had not been favored all season. The 49ers opened as 1-point favorites at home against the Titans, and became the last NFL team to be favored in a game this year.


Early action has come on the Niners, moving the spread to -2.


Jaguars gaining Respect


The surging Jaguars were tagged with their largest spread in the last 10 years. On December 23, 2007, they were 14-point chalk against the Oakland Raiders.


Jacksonville is favored by 13 points hosting Houston this week. Early action is on Houston, moving the spread to -12.


NFL Week 15 Opening Odds - per BookMaker.eu


Broncos at Colts (+1.5, 41.5)
Bears at Lions (-7, 44)
Chargers at Chiefs (-1, 46)
Eagles at Giants (OFF)
Packers at Panthers (OFF)
Bengals at Vikings (-10, 41)
Dolphins at Bills (OFF)
Texans at Jaguars (-13, 40)
Jets at Saints (OFF)
Cardinals at Redskins (-6, 44)
Ravens at Browns (OFF)
Rams at Seahawks (+1.5, 48)
Patriots at Steelers (OFF)
Titans at 49ers (PK, 44.5)
Cowboys at Raiders (+1, 45)
Falcons at Buccaneers (+5, 47.5)