Cnotes 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 26
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


TB at ATL 01:00 PM
TB +10.0
O 47.0


CLE at CIN 01:00 PM
CLE +7.5
O 39.0


CHI at PHI 01:00 PM
CHI +14.0
U 43.5


CAR at NYJ 01:00 PM
CAR -5.5


BUF at KC 01:00 PM
KC -8.5


TEN at IND 01:00 PM
IND +3.0
O 46.5


MIA at NE 01:00 PM
MIA +17.0
U 49.0


SEA at SF 04:05 PM
SF +6.5
U 45.0


NO at LAR 04:25 PM
LAR -2.5


JAC at ARI 04:25 PM
ARI +5.5


DEN at OAK 04:25 PM
DEN +3.5


*******************************


SUNDAY NIGHT PICK


GB at PIT 08:30 PM
GB +13.5
U 43.0

 

[CNOTES]

NFL roundup: Falcons WR Jones torches Bucs
November 26, 2017


PITTSBURGH -- Chris Boswell's 53-yard field goal with no time left gave the Pittsburgh Steelers a 31-28 win over the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night.


Packers backup quarterback Brett Hundley threw touchdown passes of 39, 54 and 55 yards, but Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger found his go-to receiver, Antonio Brown, in the late going to set up Boswell's game-winning kick.


Pittsburgh (9-2) won its sixth consecutive game while Green Bay (5-6) lost its second in a row.


Roethlisberger was 33 of 45 for 351 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions. Brown caught 10 passes for 169 yards and two scores. Hundley finished 17 of 26 for 245 yards.


Falcons 34, Buccaneers 20


ATLANTA -- Julio Jones, who came in with just one touchdown this season, caught 12 passes for 253 yards and two scores as Atlanta beat Tampa Bay for its third win in a row.


Jones teamed with fellow wide receiver Mohamed Sanu for a 51-yard touchdown on a trick play and caught a 25-yard TD pass from quarterback Matt Ryan, who finished 26 of 35 for 317 yards and two scores.


The victory for the Falcons (7-4) snapped a two-game winning streak by the Buccaneers (4-7).


Patriots 35, Dolphins 17


FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- Tom Brady threw four touchdown passes, two to tight end Rob Gronkowski, and New England cruised to its seventh straight victory with a rout of Miami.


Running back Rex Burkhead also scored twice (one pass, one run) as the Patriots (9-2) sent Miami (4-7) to its fifth straight loss -- and its eighth straight at Gillette Stadium.


Brady had a string of 189 straight passes without an interception snapped, but he went on to post his 83rd game with at least three touchdown passes.


Eagles 31, Bears 3


PHILADELPHIA -- Carson Wentz threw for three touchdowns, including one to Alshon Jeffery, to lead Philadelphia to a rout of Chicago.


The Eagles (10-1) did most of their damage in a dominating first half in which they outscored the Bears 24-0 while outgaining them in yardage 272-33.


The victory over the NFC North cellar-dwelling Bears (3-8) was the ninth in a row for NFC East-leading Philadelphia, which improved to 6-0 at home this season.


Bengals 30, Browns 16


CINCINNATI -- Rookie Joe Mixon rushed for a career-high 114 yards on 23 carries and a touchdown, and Andy Dalton passed for 214 yards and two touchdowns, lifting Cincinnati to a victory over winless Cleveland.


Cincinnati (5-6) revived its dormant rushing attack with a season-high 152 yards, averaging 5.1 yards per carry, to help keep its slim playoff hopes alive.


The Browns (0-11) got 268 passing yards from DeShone Kizer and 95 rushing yards from Isaiah Crowell.


Bills 16, Chiefs 10


KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- Quarterback Tyrod Taylor used his arms and his legs to send Buffalo to a much-needed win, buoying the Bills' playoff hopes while sending Kansas City reeling to its third straight defeat.


Taylor completed 19 of 29 passes for 183 yards while running nine times for another 27 yards in his return as the starting quarterback after getting benched in favor of rookie Nathan Peterman last week.


The Chiefs drove into Buffalo territory for a potential game-winning score late in the fourth quarter, but cornerback Tre'Davious White picked off a pass from Alex Smith to seal the win.


Titans 20, Colts 16


INDIANAPOLIS -- For the second time this season, Tennessee rallied in the fourth quarter to beat Indianapolis.


On Oct. 16 in Nashville, Tennessee outscored Indianapolis 21-3 in the final 15 minutes for a 36-22 victory.


On Sunday, Tennessee seized a 20-16 lead with 5:59 remaining in the game on DeMarco Murray's 1-yard touchdown run to cap a nine-play, 77-yard drive. The Titans overcame Marcus Mariota throwing two interceptions.


Panthers 35, Jets 27


EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. -- Linebacker Luke Kuechly returned a fumble for the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter as Carolina topped New York.


Kaelin Clay then returned a punt for a touchdown to provide insurance for the Panthers (8-3), who won their fourth game in a row to set up a first-place showdown with the Saints next week in New Orleans. Carolina also completed its first-ever sweep of the AFC East.


With the Jets up 20-18, quarterback Josh McCown fumbled the ball as he was hit by defensive end Wes Horton. Kuechly scooped the ball and returned it 34 yards for his second career touchdown. Newton, who was only 11 of 28 for 168 yards, dived in for the two-point conversion to give the Panthers a 26-20 lead with 12:58 to play.


Raiders 21, Broncos 14


OAKLAND, Calif. -- Derek Carr threw two touchdown passes, Marshawn Lynch ran for a score, and Oakland gave its playoff hopes a boost with an emotional victory over Denver.


The Raiders (5-6) pulled to within one game of the first-place Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West. Carr completed 18 of 24 passes for 253 yards, while Lynch gained 67 yards on 26 carries.


The Broncos (3-8) lost their seventh straight game and trail Kansas City by three games. Denver quarterback Paxton Lynch sustained a non-contact ankle injury during the third quarter and sat out the rest of the game.


Rams 26, Saints 20


LOS ANGELES -- Jared Goff passed for two touchdowns and Drew Brees was held to one as Los Angeles defeated New Orleans.


The Rams (8-3) won for the fifth time in six outings as the Saints (8-3) had their eight-game winning streak snapped.


Los Angeles receiver Cooper Kupp made eight catches for 116 yards. Greg Zuerlein added four field goals, three from at least 46 yards, as the Rams prevailed.


Cardinals 27, Jaguars 24


GLENDALE, Ariz. -- Phil Dawson kicked a career-long 57-yard field goal with one second remaining in regulation to lift Arizona to a victory over Jacksonville.


Dawson made all four of his field-goal attempts, also connecting from 34, 42 and 48 yards.


The win snapped a two-game losing streak for the Cardinals (5-6) and ended a four-game winning streak for the Jaguars (7-4).


Seahawks 24, 49ers 13


SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- Russell Wilson threw two touchdown passes and ran for a TD, lifting Seattle to its fourth consecutive road win.


The victory was the Seahawks' eighth straight in the regular season over the 49ers (1-10), who were coming off a bye that followed their first win of the season, 31-21 over the New York Giants. Seattle improved to 7-4.


The Seahawks' defense limited the 49ers to a pair of Robbie Gould field goals before Jimmy Garoppolo threw a 10-yard touchdown pass to wideout Louis Murphy as time expired. Garoppolo replaced an injured C.J. Beathard with 1:07 remaining.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Today, Week 12
November 26, 2017


SCOREBOARD


Monday, Nov. 21


Houston at Baltimore, 8:30 p.m. EST. Terrell Suggs and the Baltimore Ravens try for their fourth shutout of the season when they host DeAndre Hopkins and the Houston Texans. Suggs got two more sacks as Baltimore (5-5) beat Green Bay 23-0 last weekend. Houston (4-6) is coming off a 31-21 victory over Arizona, which stopped a three-game losing streak and included a 28-yard touchdown reception for Hopkins.


---


STARS


Passing


-Jared Goff, Rams, passed for 354 yards and two touchdowns, powering Los Angeles to a 26-20 victory against the New Orleans Saints.


-Tom Brady, Patriots, threw for 227 yards and four touchdowns to lead New England to a 35-17 win against the Miami Dolphins.


-Matt Ryan, Falcons, completed 28 of 35 passes for 317 yards and a touchdown, sending Atlanta to a 34-20 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.


-Carson Wentz, Eagles, passed for 227 yards and three touchdowns to help Philadelphia beat the Chicago Bears 31-3 for its ninth straight victory.


-Russell Wilson, Seahawks, passed for two TDs and ran for a score, leading Seattle to a 24-13 win against the San Francisco 49ers.


-Josh McCown, Jets, threw for 307 yards and three TDs in New York's 35-27 loss to the Carolina Panthers.


-Derek Carr, Raiders, was 18 for 24 for 253 yards and two touchdowns in Oakland's 21-14 victory against the Denver Broncos.


---


Rushing


-Alvin Kamara, Saints, had a 74-yard touchdown run and a 15-yard TD reception in New Orleans' 26-20 loss at the Los Angeles Rams.


-Joe Mixon, Bengals, rushed for a career-high 114 yards to lead Cincinnati to a 30-16 win against the Cleveland Browns.


-Dion Lewis, Patriots, had 15 carries for 112 yards, helping New England to a 35-17 victory against the Miami Dolphins.


-Tevin Coleman, Falcons, rushed for 97 yards and two TDs in Atlanta's 34-20 win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.


---


Receiving


-Julio Jones, Falcons, had 12 receptions for 253 yards and two touchdowns, leading Atlanta to a 34-20 win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.


-Robby Anderson, Jets, had six catches for 146 yards and two TDs in New York's 35-27 loss to the Carolina Panthers.


-Zach Ertz, Eagles, had 10 receptions for 103 yards and a touchdown in Philadelphia's 31-3 win against the Chicago Bears.


-Rob Gronkowski, Patriots, had two touchdown receptions in New England's 35-17 victory against Miami.


-Cooper Kupp, Rams, had eight receptions for 116 yards, helping Los Angeles to a 26-20 win against the New Orleans Saints.


---


Special Teams


-Phil Dawson, Cardinals, kicked four field goals in Arizona's 27-24 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars, including a career-long 57-yarder with 1 second to play.


-Kaelin Clay, Panthers, had a 60-yard punt return for a fourth-quarter touchdown in Carolina's 35-27 win at the New York Jets.


-Adam Vinatieri, Colts, kicked three field goals in Indianapolis' 20-16 loss to the Tennessee Titans.


-Randy Bullock, Bengals, went 3 for 3 on field goal attempts, helping Cincinnati to a 30-16 victory against the Cleveland Browns.


-Greg Zuerlein, Rams, kicked four field goals in Los Angeles' 26-20 win against the New Orleans Saints, including three from at least 46 yards.


---


Defense


-Luke Kuechly, Panthers, returned a fumble 34 yards for a touchdown in Carolina's 35-27 win at the New York Jets.


-Calais Campbell, Cardinals, returned a fumble 10 yards for a TD in Arizona's 27-24 win against the Jacksonville Jaguars.


-DaQuan Jones, Titans, had two of Tennessee's eight sacks in a 20-16 victory at the Indianapolis Colts.


-Tre'Davious White, Bills, had a key interception that helped Buffalo to a 16-10 win at the Kansas City Chiefs.


---


FLYING FALCONS


It was quite a day for Julio Jones and the Atlanta Falcons. Jones finished with 12 receptions for 253 yards and two touchdowns in Atlanta's 34-20 victory against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It was Jones' third career game with at least 250 yards receiving; no other player has more than one. Jones also set NFL records for most catches and yards receiving in his first 90 games, running his career totals to 563 receptions for 8,649 yards. He passed Anquan Boldin (558 receptions) and Hall of Famer Lance Alworth (8,502 yards). Jones got one of his TDs on a 51-yard pass from Mohamed Sanu, who became the first wide receiver since the 1970 merger with multiple touchdown passes of 50-plus yards. Sanu had one for Cincinnati four years ago.


---

FIGHTING CHANCE


The feud between Oakland receiver Michael Crabtree and Denver cornerback Aqib Talib spilled over into a new season, resulting in a full-blown brawl and three ejections. Crabtree has been upset ever since Talib ripped Crabtree's chain off his neck during the regular-season finale last season. Crabtree sat out the first meeting this season in Denver with a chest injury, but didn't wait long to try for revenge in the rematch. On the second play of Oakland's second drive in its 21-14 win, Crabtree aggressively blocked Talib on a running play and drove him to the ground on the Broncos sideline. Talib ripped Crabtree's chain off his neck while they were tangled up, and a brawl ensued. Several Broncos players surrounded Crabtree as he tussled with Talib before his Raiders teammates could come to his assistance. Guard Gabe Jackson pushed an official while trying to join in and got ejected for his actions, along with Crabtree and Talib. Suspensions could be coming.


---


ABOUT THOSE EAGLES


Carson Wentz led the way as Philadelphia improved to 10-1 with a 31-3 victory against the Chicago Bears. It's the fourth time in franchise history the Eagles have started a season 10-1 or better, and they made it to the NFL championship each of the previous three occasions. Wentz tossed three touchdown passes to run his NFL-best total to 28, breaking Hall of Famer Sonny Jurgensen's team record for most through the first 11 games of a season.


---

HO-HUM


Call it business as usual for Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, who held off the Miami Dolphins for a 35-17 victory. Brady tossed four touchdown passes as New England clinched its 17th consecutive season with a winning record. It's the longest such streak since 1970, topping the previous record held by the 1970-1985 Dallas Cowboys and 1983-1998 San Francisco 49ers. Brady has 26 touchdown passes, the most by a quarterback in a season at the age of 40 or older.


---


BOUNCING BACK


Russell Wilson knows how to get back on track after a loss. He passed for two touchdowns and ran for a score to help the Seattle Seahawks to a 24-13 win at the San Francisco 49ers. Wilson improved to 23-4 (.852) following an in-season loss, the best record by a starting quarterback since the 1970 merger (minimum 15 such starts).


---


DOUBLE TROUBLE


Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram were responsible for 224 yards from scrimmage in the New Orleans Saints' 26-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Kamara and Ingram are the first running back teammates to each have at least 1,000 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns in a team's first 11 games in the Super Bowl era. Kamara had five carries for 87 yards and a touchdown against Los Angeles, and also had six receptions for 101 yards and a TD.


---


WHAT A FINISH


Carolina put together an unlikely rally in a 35-27 victory over the New York Jets. Luke Kuechly returned a fumble 34 yards for a go-ahead touchdown with 12:05 left, and Kaelin Clay added a 60-yard punt return for another score during the Panthers' 17-point fourth quarter. It was the second time in franchise history that Carolina had two touchdown returns in the fourth quarter of a game. The first occasion was on Oct. 8, 1995, against Chicago in the Panthers' inaugural season.


---


SIDELINED


Carolina lost tight end Greg Olsen and linebacker Thomas Davis in the second half of its 35-27 win against the New York Jets. Olsen was sidelined with a foot injury after he missed the previous eight games with a broken foot, but said afterward he felt and it just got a little sore. Davis had a thigh injury, but coach Ron Rivera said he was also just sore. ... Quarterback Paxton Lynch departed in the third quarter of Denver's 21-14 loss at Oakland after hurting his ankle on a rollout in his first start of the season. He had missed much of the year with a sprained shoulder. ... Oakland receiver Amari Cooper left in the first half with a concussion after being hurt on an illegal hit by Denver safety Darian Stewart. Cooper was down on the turf for several minutes before leaving. ... San Francisco starting quarterback C.J. Beathard went down on a hit by Seattle's Michael Bennett as he threw a pass late in the fourth quarter of the 49ers' 24-13 loss. ... The Bucs sustained some huge blows during their 34-20 loss at Atlanta, losing running back Doug Martin (concussion), safety T.J. Ward (concussion), safety Josh Robinson (hamstring) and defensive tackle Clinton McDonald (back).


---


SPEAKING


''We tried rolling the coverage to him. We tried pressing him. We didn't have an answer for him.'' - Tampa Bay coach Dirk Koetter on Atlanta receiver Julio Jones.


---


''I always hear, `That was an ugly win,' but I've never heard such a thing as a pretty loss. Either way it goes, we would prefer to get a win today. A great team win. It wasn't a blockbuster outing offensively for us, statistics-wise. But at the end of the day, we found ways to win the football game.'' - Carolina quarterback Cam Newton on the Panthers' 35-27 win against the New York Jets.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL notebook: Denver CB Talib, Oakland WR Crabtree ejected for fighting
November 26, 2017


Oakland Raiders wide receiver Michael Crabtree and Denver Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib were ejected from their game with 11:56 left in the first quarter Sunday after a fight at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum.


Crabtree and Talib each received offsetting unnecessary roughness penalties. Raiders offensive guard Gabe Jackson was also ejected for making contact with an official and was penalized 15 yards.


As Crabtree and Talib went to the ground hard and continued battling on the Broncos sidelines, players from both teams rushed to join the confrontation.


When the Raiders and Broncos met last season in Denver, Talib ripped Crabtree's chain off his neck on one play.


--Tampa Bay running back Doug Martin sustained a concussion, one of six Buccaneers injured in the 34-20 loss to the Atlanta Falcons.


Right tackle Demar Dotson and center Ali Marpet left with knee injuries and Martin suffered his concussion in the second quarter.


Defensive tackle Clinton McDonald (back), safety T.J. Ward (concussion) and cornerback Josh Robinson (hamstring) were hurt in the third quarter.


The Falcons lost cornerbacks Desmond Trufant (concussion) and Brian Poole (lower back) in the second quarter.


--New England special teamer Nate Ebner suffered a knee injury on a 14-yard run with a fake punt that helped the Patriots drive to their first touchdown of the game with the Miami Dolphins.


Ebner, a key to the Patriots' special teams, took a direct snap and ran to the right for a first down on his team's first series of the day. He was injured on the play and was quickly ruled out for the rest of the game.


The Patriots needed four plays after the Ebner first down to score the game's first touchdown, 4:21 into the game.


--Broncos quarterback Paxton Lynch sustained a non-contact ankle injury during the third quarter and departed Denver's game against the Oakland Raiders on Sunday at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum.


Trevor Siemian replaced Lynch, who was injured after a third-down completion with 4:55 remaining in the third.


Lynch completed 9 of 14 passes for 41 yards with one interception while making his first start of the season and the third of his career.


--The Dallas Cowboys waived little-used running back Darren McFadden.


Coach Jason Garrett confirmed McFadden's release that will allow the 10-year veteran to land with another team this season.


"Darren's been a really good player for us and has been just a first-class guy on our football team," Garrett said Sunday. "And just the way the running back rotation has been and is probably going to be as we go forward he wasn't going to get many opportunities. ... I really wish Darren nothing but the best."


McFadden has been a healthy inactive for most of this season, including the current three-game losing streak coinciding with the first three games of star running back Ezekiel Elliott's six-game suspension.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Record For November......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons


11/26/2017 8-11-0 42.11% -20.50
11/23/2017 2-4-0 33.33% -12.00
11/20/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
11/19/20178-8-150.00%-4.00
11/16/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
11/13/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
11/12/2017 10-14-0 41.67% -27.00
11/09/2017 1-0-1 100.00% +5.00
11/06/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
11/05/2017 5-8-1 38.46% -19.00
11/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50




Totals.........39 - 49 - 3.......44.31%.......-80.00




Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total


11/26/2017................4 - 3.................+3.50...............3 - 3.............-1.50..............+2.00
11/23/2017................1 - 2.................-6.00................1 - 2............-6.00...............-12.00
11/20/2017................0 -1 ..................-5.50...............1 - 0............+5.00...............-0.50
11/19/2017..............4 - 3 - 1..............+3.50...............1 - 4............-17.00..............- 13.50
11/16/2017................1- 0..................+5.00...............1 - 0............+5.00..............+10.00
11/13/2017................0 - 1..................-5.50...............0 - 1.............-5.50...............-11.00
11/12/2017................1 - 2..................-4.50...............1 - 8............-39.00...............-43.50
11/09/2017..............0 - 0 - 1...............+0.00..............1 - 0............+5.00................+5.00
11/06/2017................1 - 0..................+5.00..............0 - 1.............-5.50................-0.50
11/05/2017................0 - 2..................-11.00..............3 - 1............+9.50................-1.50
11/02/2017................1 - 0..................+5.00..............0 - 0............+0.00...............+5.00




Totals.....................13 - 15 - 2..............-10.50...........12 - 20...........-55.00..............-65.50


*******************


11 /02 / 17 -Thursday Night POM........New York Jets + 3....34 - 21............Winner

 

[CNOTES]

MNF - Texans at Ravens
November 26, 2017


LAST WEEK


The Texans (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS) snapped a three-game losing streak by rallying past the Cardinals, 31-21 to cash as 2 ½-point home favorites. Houston overcame a 21-17 fourth quarter deficit by outscoring Arizona, 14-0 over the last 13 minutes thanks to a pair of touchdown runs by rookie D’Onta Foreman. However, the former University of Texas standout suffered a season-ending Achilles tendon injury on his second touchdown scamper.


Quarterback Tom Savage finally picked up a win in place of the injured Deshaun Watson as Savage threw for 230 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Houston won for the first time since knocking off Cleveland in Week 6, while moving to 4-1 to the OVER in its last five games at NRG Stadium.


The Ravens (5-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) have been the definition of a roller-coaster team this season as they have not won more than two in a row or lost two straight. Baltimore rebounded from a three-point setback at Tennessee prior to its bye week to blank Green Bay at Lambeau Field, 23-0 as 2 ½-point favorites. The Ravens’ defense posted its third shutout of the season, while limiting the Packers to 265 yards.


Baltimore created five takeaways, but its offense posted only 219 yards as it depended on star kicker Justin Tucker to knock in three field goals. Joe Flacco completed 22-of-28 passes for 183 yards, including a 21-yard touchdown strike to Mike Wallace early in the third quarter to put the game out of reach. Baltimore snapped a two-game road losing streak, while picking up its first victory against an NFC foe in three tries this season.


TOTAL TALK


The Ravens ended a five-game OVER streak in the shutout of the Packers, as their last two games at M&T Bank Stadium have gone OVER the total. Granted, Baltimore finished OVER the total in a 27-24 overtime setback to Chicago on a 39 ½ total even though three non-offensive touchdowns were scored. Against Miami, the Ravens returned a pair of interceptions for touchdowns in the fourth quarter to barely cash the OVER of 38 in a 40-0 rout.


Houston started the season with consecutive UNDERS against Jacksonville and Cincinnati, but the Texans are currently on a 6-2 OVER run. The Texans have yielded 33 points or more in each of their past three away games, while losing twice by three points to Seattle and New England (with Watson at quarterback).


INCONSISTENT WAYS


Baltimore has had two games decided by three points this season, while seven other contests have been decided by double-digits. The Ravens own a 2-2 SU/ATS record at M&T Bank Stadium, as three of the four opponents are currently under .500, while the only quality opponent Baltimore faced was Pittsburgh (who they lost 26-9).


GIVE ME POINTS


The Texans have been a solid play this season in the underdog role by compiling a 4-2 ATS record. Houston failed to cover in its last opportunity as a ‘dog in a 33-7 trouncing by the Rams, but the Texans are 3-1 ATS away from NRG Stadium this season. Last season, Bill O’Brien’s team struggled as a ‘dog by posting a 3-6 ATS record, including a 2-6 ATS road mark.


SERIES HISTORY


These two AFC squads are meeting for the first time since 2014, as the home team has won five consecutive matchups. In the most recent meeting in December 2014 at NRG Stadium, the Texans built a 16-0 halftime lead in a 25-13 victory over the Ravens as 6 ½-point underdogs. Houston’s defense intercepted Flacco three times, while the Texans kicked six field goals and scored only one touchdown.


The Ravens are 4-0 at home lifetime against the Texans, while Baltimore beat Houston in 2010 the last time these teams hooked up for a Monday night affair, 34-28 with a frontdoor cover as three-point favorites on an interception return for a touchdown in overtime.


RIDE THE MONDAY NIGHT TREND?


The Favorite-OVER combination has hit in six consecutive Monday night games, including in last week’s 34-31 victory by Atlanta at Seattle. Each of the past four home favorites have won by double-digits, but three OVERS have cashed on Mondays this season due to a touchdown in the final minute.


Baltimore is making its first appearance on Monday night this season as the Ravens lost at New England in Week 15 last season, 30-23. John Harbaugh’s squad is hosting a Monday night game for the first time since the season opener of 2012 as the Ravens pounded the Bengals, 44-13. Houston lost in both opportunities under the Monday night lights last season, as their last victory on a Monday came at Cincinnati as 10-point underdogs in 2015 by a 10-6 score.


HANDICAPPER’S CORNER


VegasInsider.com expert Joe Nelson breaks down a statistically poor Ravens’ offense, “By nearly half a yard, the Ravens are the NFL’s worst yards per pass attempt team and this isn’t a great rushing team either. Baltimore gains just 4.0 yards per rush with as many fumbles (5) as rushing touchdowns (5). Alex Collins has provided Baltimore with some recent life in the running game with his per carry average up to 5.0 and over 200 net yards over the past three games including getting his first touchdown last week.”


Flipping over to Houston, Nelson says this Texans’ defense is leaking oil, “Houston has featured a reputation as a strong defensive team in recent years, but that hasn’t been the case this season, 20th in total defense and 31st in scoring defense. The Texans have been a good run defense allowing just 3.7 yards per carry, but Houston is the second-worst team in the NFL in yards per pass allowed at 8.2, nearly two yards worse than the Ravens allow. Houston has allowed 110 points in three consecutive road losses and Baltimore has allowed 91 fewer points overall this season.”


From a trends standpoint, handicapper Vince Akins provides an interesting trend on Baltimore, “The Ravens are 0-11 ATS (-7.3 ppg) since Nov 18, 2001 at home off a game as a road favorite where they gained no more than 15 first downs but did not lose by more than 14.” Baltimore is in this spot for the first time since 2014 when the Ravens failed to cover as 13-point favorites in a 20-10 win over the Browns.

BOOKMAKER’S TAKE


Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu gives his view from behind the counter, "Unsurprisingly, we haven't booked a ton of action on this game. We've only moved the spread a half point off the opener (to -7.5) and that's almost all based on public money, and the total hasn't budged. Currently, we have 65 percent of the tickets on Baltimore, and the money count favors that side 60-40. I do expect we'll see some value players get on Houston at some point to knock this back down to the key number."

 

[CNOTES]

Betting Recap - Week 12
November 27, 2017


Overall Notes


NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 12 RESULTS


Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 13-2
Against the Spread 12-3


Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 8-7


Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-8


The largest underdogs to win straight up
Bills (+9, ML +320) at Chiefs, 16-10
Cardinals (+6, ML +230) vs. Jaguars, 27-24


The largest favorite to cover
Patriots (-16.5) vs. Dolphins, 35-17
Eagles (-13.5) vs. Bears, 31-3
Falcons (-10) vs. Buccaneers, 34-20
Bengals (-7.5) vs. Browns, 30-16


Suddenly Flying High


-- The Atlanta Falcons dumped the struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers by a 34-20 count as WR Julio Jones took the team on his back and posted one of those amazing performances. He racked up 12 receptions for 253 yards and two touchdowns, including a 51-yard score on a gadget play with WR Mohamed Sanu lining up in the Wildcat formation and throwing to him downfield. It's been a nice turnaround for the Falcons, who covered their season-high third straight after starting out 2-6 ATS across the first eight outings. Next up is a visit from the Minnesota Vikings, who come in a bit more rested since their win on Thanksgiving on the road against the Detroit Lions. The Vikings enter on a six-game cover streak.

Los Angeles...Super Chargers


-- The Los Angeles Chargers continued their amazing turnaround with an impressive 28-6 win on the road against the Dallas Cowboys. After starting out 0-4 SU/0-3-1 ATS across the first four outings, the Bolts are back and just one game behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the flatlining AFC West. The Chargers have posted covered in six of their past seven outings, including each of their past two at home. They'll welcome the winless Cleveland Browns to town in Week 13 before hosting the Washington Redskins in Week 14.
Total Recall


-- The second-highest total on the board, Miami-New England (49), lived up to high-scoring expectations with the Patriots coming through with a 35-17 win. The game got off to a very good start for 'over' bettors with 31 points by halftime. However, the NFC showdown between New Orleans-L.A. Rams (54) didn't quite have the fireworks Vegas expected, nor did the Buffalo-Kansas City (47) tilt, as each of those games never really threatened to go over the total. The 'over' result for Miami was no big surprise. The over is 6-0 across the past six for Miami after the 'under' was 0-5 to start the season.


-- The three lowest totals on the board from Sunday -- Jacksonville-Arizona (37), Cleveland-Cincinnati (39) and Carolina-N.Y. Jets (39.5) -- each hit the 'over'. The Cards-Jags game had a flurry in the fourth quarter with 25 total points after just 26 total points through the first three quarters. The same was true with the fourth-quarter scoring in the Panthers-Jets battle, as there were 35 points on the board in through 45 minutes, and 27 points in the final 15 minutes. The 'over' is 3-1 in four games against AFC East foes this season, and 3-4 in seven games against everyone else.


-- The Chargers defense has been red hot lately, allowing just 15.5 points per game over the past six outings, as the 'under' is now an impressive 5-1 during their six-game resurgence. In Week 13 they'll face a winless Browns team which has scored 18 or fewer points in six of hteir past seven, and eight of their 10 games overall. The 'under' is 6-4 overall for Cleveland.


-- The 'Over/Under' finished 1-1 in the first two primetime games during Week 12, and the 'over' is 23-14 (62.2%) through the first 37 primetime games of the 2017 season with Monday's Houston Texans-Baltimore Ravens game yet to go. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.


Injury Report


-- Broncos QB Paxton Lynch (ankle) was forced out of Sunday's game due to an ankle injury, replaced by QB Trevor Siemian. Lynch was making his first start of the season, and he was in tears and inconsolable when he was unable to return to the game.


-- Buccaneers RB Doug Martin (concussion) left Sunday's game against the Falcons due to a concussion.


-- 49ers QB C.J. Beathard (leg) sustained a lower leg bruise late in the fourth quarter of the loss against the Seahawks, so QB Jimmy Garoppolo made his much-anticipated team debut and he threw a touchdown before the game ended.


-- Panthers TE Greg Olsen (foot) returned from the Reserve/Injured (designated to return) list on Sunday, but he checked out in the third quarter after aggravating his injury. He left due to soreness, with the field turf surface to blame. Unfortunately for the Panthers he will face the New Orleans on the road, also on an artificial surface.


Looking Ahead


-- The Cowboys host the Redskins in Thursday's game to kick off Week 13. Dallas won 33-19 in Week 8 at Washington, but that was with Ezekiel Elliott still in the lineup. The offense has completely nosedived since his six-game suspension kicked in, with the Cowboys averaging 7.3 PPG, with nine or fewer points in each of the past three. Dallas has won five of the past six in this series, going 4-2 ATS. The 'over' has cashed in four straight in the series, too. The Cowboys are 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS in their past five home games against the Redskins, however.


-- The Bills host the Patriots on Sunday, looking for a big win to stay in the playoff chase. They haven't had a lot of success against the Pats over the ears, going 2-9 SU/4-6-1 ATS over the past 11 meetings in this series. Buffalo has lost five in a row at home against New England while going 1-4 ATS during the span. The 'over' has hit in five of the past six meetings in Buffalo, too, and nine of the past 12 battles overall between these AFC East rivals.


-- The Titans host the Texans in Week 13, and it's a series Houston has dominated in recent seasons. Tennessee is just 1-5 SU/ATS over the past six meetings, and 5-12 SU/4-12-1 ATS over the past 17 in this series. These games are usually high-scoring affairs, too, with the 'over' cashing in five of the past seven, and 16-7 across the past 23 meetings. The over has hit in eight of the past 10 meetings in Nashville, too.


-- The Panthers head to New Orleans looking for revenge against the Saints. New Orleans won 34-13 as five-point underdogs back in Week 3 for their first win of the season. That kicked off an eight-game winning streak that just came to an end this past Sunday at the hands of the Rams. The Saints have covered five straight in this series, with the 'over' going 5-1 over the past six meetings overall.


-- The Bengals host the Steelers on Monday Night Football in Week 13. The last time these teams met it was a 29-14 Steelers victory at Heinz Field with the 'over' (40) coming through. Pittsburgh has won eight of the past nine meetings, including a playoff game, and their last loss at Cincinnati came Sept. 16, 2013, a game played also on a Monday night. Pittsburgh is 1-7-1 ATS over the past nine meetings.

 

[CNOTES]

Books get buried in Week 12
November 27, 2017


The perfect storm was brewing at sports book all across the Las Vegas valley during Week 12 NFL action on Sunday. As each game got posted, the losses were piling up and the risk for the remaining games to be posted kept multiplying with parlay risk.


Favorites would go 9-2 against the spread in the first 11 games, which included the ultra-popular Eagles and Patriots covering healthy double-digit numbers.


Doomsday, or Black Sunday, was right around the corner if the Steelers covered 14-points at home against the reeling Packers and back-up quarterback Brett Hundley. But the former UCLA standout performed well and the Steelers were able to get away with a 31-28 win as time expired. Large money-line parlays cashed on that three-teamer, but risky teasers and parlays dropped out due to Pittsburgh winning by just three points.


Still, the events of the first 11 games of the day shaped the end result and it was a stone cold loser for the house. The Patriots (-16.5) beat the visiting Dolphins, 35-17, for their seventh straight win (6-1 ATS). The Eagles (-13.5) made easy work at home against the over-matched Bears, 31-3, and kept the public cashing on them which is a the hottest ongoing trend in Las Vegas. Philly has won nine straight, covered its last eight and MGM books dropped them to 3/1 co-favorites to win the Super Bowl with the Patriots. It's an easy case to make seeing these two beasts playing each other in the Super Bowl this February from Minnesota.


"The Steelers and Eagles both covering early was no good, but the game that kind of kept everything flowing after those decisions was the Panthers covering in the final minutes," said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick of the popular Panthers (-6) 35-27 win at the Jets.


The underdogs helping were limited to just two, but they turned out to be huge risk choppers.


"As things turned out, the biggest savior for us on the day to not make losses more extreme was the Chiefs (-10) losing outright to Buffalo," said MGM Resorts VP of race and sports Jay Rood of the Bills 16-10 road win. "It would have made this easily the worst weekend of the season for us due to big money-line parlays and teasers."


The Chiefs dropping their third straight loss and fifth in six games after a 5-0 start was the silver lining on a bad day for books. One week after Bills QB Tyrod Taylor got benched for some bizarre reason, he bounced back executing a conservative game plan to victory and kept Buffalo in the playoff hunt.


"We were fortunate to have some big house players play a lot on the Chiefs money-line, parlayed to other games, so our risk on the day wasn't too big," said Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay. "We were up on the day heading into the Steelers game, but will lose six figures if they cover the spread."


Kornegay and the Westgate got off much easier than most books. I heard one book director after the Packers cover say it was still the worst loss of his career which spanned 31 years.


The only other positive for the house, before the Packers cover, was the woeful Cardinals winning 27-24 at home over the Jaguars and their top-ranked defense. Arizona was the worst betting team in the NFL (2-7-1 ATS) prior to the game, but it would be former Jags No. 1 pick, QB Blaine Gabbert, who would shine in somewhat of a revenge game against his former team. Gabbert has looked sharp the past two games and with Arizona being at its lowest rating of the season it might be time to buy on decent value with them.


Don't forget about Thanksgiving leftovers from all three favorites covering. Those favorites provided a rolling head start for the public parlay bettors heading into Sunday's card. Ask anyone you know that bet over the weekend and it's likely they cashed a two-team parlay at 13/5 (Bet $100 to win $260) odds with New England and Philadelphia. Perfect timing with all the Christmas bills piling up following Black Friday.


"Thursday and Friday we were small losers, but Saturday was great with Clemson and Washington covering. Our big loser on the day was Oklahoma State," said Kornegay. "So if we can get out with a Packers cover, we'll consider ourselves fortunate for the holiday weekend."

 

[CNOTES]

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 27
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


HOU at BAL 08:30 PM


HOU +7.5


O 39.5

 

[CNOTES]

Suggs, Ravens get defensive in 23-16 win over Texans
November 27, 2017


BALTIMORE (AP) Take the ball away from the other guys, hold onto it yourself and make sure nothing happens to Justin Tucker.


That, apparently, is the formula the Baltimore Ravens intend to use to reach the playoffs.


Terrell Suggs led an aggressive defense that kept Houston out of the end zone for the final 51 minutes, and the Ravens forced two turnovers in the final 5 minutes to secure a 23-16 victory on Monday night.


''If the game's on the line, you've got to be comfortable when your defense is out there,'' Suggs said. ''It feels good.''


After Suggs stripped the ball from quarterback Tom Savage and Baltimore recovered, Tucker kicked his third field goal with 2:53 remaining for a seven-point cushion.


Anthony Levine then intercepted a Savage pass to clinch it.


The Ravens picked off two passes to increase their NFL-leading total to 18, and their three takeaways upped their league-best total to 26.


Asked to assess Savage's performance, Houston coach Bill O'Brien said: ''Can't turn it over. I thought he did some good things, but he turned it over too many times.''


Baltimore, in turn, did not commit a turnover.


Suggs had two sacks, Alex Collins ran for 60 yards and a touchdown, and punter Sam Koch threw perhaps Baltimore's most significant pass of the game.


Baltimore coach John Harbaugh called for a fake punt, converted a fourth down with a rarely used pitchout and had quarterback Joe Flacco line up at wide receiver on a play in which Collins took a direct snap.


''You always have them in the game plan,'' Flacco said. ''It's just the flow of the game.''


All of this added spice to a stagnant offense that protected the ball and did just enough to win.


Flacco went 20 for 32 for 141 yards.


The Ravens (6-5) have won consecutive games for the first time since they opened the season 2-0. They are now above .500 for the first time since Oct. 8 and tied with Buffalo for the final AFC wild-card spot.


Houston (4-7) has lost four of five.


Savage, who has started the last four games in place of injured DeShaun Watson, completed 22 of 37 passes for 252 yards. But he gave the ball away three times, and that was the difference.


''You're not going to win any games when you turn it over and you don't get any turnovers,'' O'Brien said.


Aided by three penalties against Baltimore, the Texans traveled the length of the field and went up 7-0 on a 4-yard touchdown run by Lamar Miller.


That would be Houston's last sniff of the end zone.


''It's hard to run the ball on these guys,'' O'Brien said. ''You try to stay balanced and we couldn't really run it.''


Early in the second quarter, after a third-down incompletion, the Ravens appeared poised to punt for the fourth time in four series. But Koch lofted a pass to Chris Moore , a play that went for 22 yards to the Houston 19. That set up a 10-yard touchdown run by Javorius Allen, who reached the end zone with a healthy push from several of his teammates.


An interception by Tony Jefferson was followed by a fourth-and-1 gamble in which Collins took a quick pitch and ran for 29 yards to the Houston 8. Collins covered the final 8 yards on the following play for a 14-7 lead.


The teams traded field goals in the final two minutes before halftime.


GET THE BALL


Suggs joked about how former Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis loved pouncing on loose balls.


''Every time I'm ready to get the ball, I can hear Ray Lewis say, `Sizzle, get the ball. I want the ball,''' Suggs said. ''Ray Lewis, he probably made a tackle tonight. He's always gotten credit.''

PRIMED TO WIN


Baltimore has won 10 straight games in prime time and is 12-1 under the lights since Harbaugh took over in 2008.

INJURIES


Texans: LB Brennan Scarlett (foot) and OT Chris Clark (ankle) left in the second quarter. LB Ben Heeney (hamstring) left in the third quarter.


Ravens: LB C.J. Mosley was placed in the concussion protocol in the third quarter and quickly cleared.


UP NEXT


Texans: At Tennessee on Sunday.


Ravens: Host Detroit on Sunday.

 

[CNOTES]

QB Rodgers can return to Packers on Saturday
November 27, 2017


GREEN BAY, Wis. -- Quarterback Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers s eligible to begin practicing on Saturday. Rodgers sustained a broken collarbone on Oct. 8, underwent surgery Oct. 19 and was placed on the injured reserve list Oct. 20.


Rodgers can't play in a game until Week 15, when the Packers travel to Carolina. But he could begin practicing with his team at the end of the week.


"We have no decisions for you today," Packers head coach Mike McCarthy said. "There's a step-by-step process. I have nothing to give you today, you know.


"There's a plan laid out for Aaron, just like the other guys on IR. He's knocking it out of the park, he's going at it 120 miles an hour. We'll see what the end of the week brings."


--Green Bay held a 21-14 third-quarter lead when it drove to the Pittsburgh Steelers' 39-yard line.


McCarthy could have elected to punt, try pinning the Steelers deep, and put his defense in a favorable position. Instead, McCarthy called for a 57-yard Mason Crosby field-goal attempt that wasn't close.


Pittsburgh then used the short field to drive for the game-tying touchdown.


Crosby's kick would have been the longest ever at Heinz Field. Afterward, though, McCarthy wasn't second-guessing his decision.


"We knew we needed points," McCarthy said. "You look at the flow of the game. You look at time of possession. Those are the things you're thinking about all through the course of the game. How long has your defense been on the field? That's the right decision."


NOTES: OL Jason Spriggs started at right tackle instead of Justin McCray. Spriggs allowed three of the Packers' six hurries, but seemed to have one of the better showings of his young Green Bay career. Spriggs, a second-round draft pick in 2016, has been an enormous disappointment, to date, struggling mightily in his limited opportunities on the field. But the Packers know McCray's future is on the interior of the offensive line, and they clearly decided to see if Spriggs would sink or swim in just his third career start. ... CB Davon House's return to Green Bay hasn't gone the way anyone in the Packers' organization had hoped. House has battled injury and inconsistency, and played one of his poorer games of the year Sunday. House was targeted seven times and allowed five receptions for 87 yards and a touchdown. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had a 153.0 passer rating when he threw at House.

 

[CNOTES]

Even Rodgers' return may not be enough for Packers
November 27, 2017


GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) The math is not in the Green Bay Packers' favor when it comes to extending the team's streak of eight consecutive playoff appearances.


And a possible return by star quarterback Aaron Rodgers may not even help.


In the wake of Sunday night's last-second, 31-28 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Packers returned to work Monday at 5-6.


Eight teams in the NFC have better records, and three more (Dallas, Arizona and Washington) have the same record. That leaves Green Bay two games out of the final wild card spot and likely needing to win its final five games, starting this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, to have reason for hope.


The Packers were 4-1 when Rodgers broke his collarbone early in a 23-10 loss at Minnesota on Oct. 15. They've now lost five of their last six, leaving little to no margin for error.


''Six losses. I mean, it is what it is,'' McCarthy said Monday evening. ''You can sit there and you can jump around and look at schedules and all that. I'm sure that's fun for the fans (to look at) all the potential scenarios and all that. But at the end of the day, if you don't get to 10 wins, to me there's nothing else to talk about. We're at five. We've got to get to six, and that's what really it's all about.''


That would mean winning the next two games without Rodgers, who was placed on injured reserve Oct. 20. According to NFL rules, he could return to practice as early as Saturday, and the first game he'd be eligible to play in would be Dec. 17 at Carolina once the Packers designate him for possible return.


Rodgers threw passes before Sunday night's game at Heinz Field but has yet to have an X-ray on this surgically repaired collarbone to see how much it has healed. Rodgers said last month that he would return only if the bone was fully healed and if it ''made sense'' for him to come back, meaning the Packers were still in playoff contention.


Asked whether Rodgers would practice Saturday, McCarthy replied, ''We'll see. ... The A-No. 1 priority is to get him healthy. Practice is not something we're really focused on right now.''


McCarthy called Rodgers' appearance at Heinz Field ''a great opportunity'' to get some work in and take another step in his rehabilitation.


''Everything that they're doing is calculated between the training (staff), the strength and conditioning (staff) and Aaron. As you would imagine, he's going at it 120 miles an hour,'' McCarthy said. ''And so far, so good.


''There's a plan laid out for Aaron, just like the other guys on IR. ... We'll see what the end of the week brings.''


NOTES: McCarthy said he wasn't second-guessing himself for having kicker Mason Crosby attempt a 57-yard field goal with the Packers leading 21-14 in the third quarter. Crosby missed what would have been the longest field goal in Heinz Field history, and the Steelers took over at their own 47 and quickly drove for the game-tying touchdown. ''I don't really understand the criticism of it,'' McCarthy said. ... McCarthy also said that he did not consider going for a 2-point conversion when the Packers scored with 2:02 to play to pull within 28-27. Crosby kicked the extra point to tie the game. ... Special teams coordinator Ron Zook, the former coach at Florida, had one small piece of advice for new Gators coach Dan Mullen. ''It'll be fun right now. He's undefeated,'' Zook said. ''He better enjoy it.'' ... McCarthy said second-year player Jason Spriggs will be the team's starting right tackle going forward in place of Bryan Bulaga, who is out for the year with a knee injury. Justin McCray, who initially replaced Bulaga, will be the first man off the bench as a versatile backup at all five positions.

 

[CNOTES]

Bucs QB Winston might return this week
November 27, 2017


TAMPA -- Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston, who has missed three games because of a shoulder injury, probably will get a chance to restart his season in Green Bay on Sunday.


Winston underwent an MRI exam on his right throwing shoulder Monday, and barring experiencing soreness from his rehab work with trainers, doctors have cleared him to begin throwing again at practice on Wednesday, head coach Dirk Koetter said.


"He'll be able to take all the reps if he doesn't have any residual soreness," Koetter said.


The Bucs have gone 2-1 since Winston's absence behind backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, beating the Jets and Dolphins before suffering a 34-20 loss at Atlanta Sunday.


Winston was 2-2 as a starter before he suffered a sprained AC joint in his shoulder in the first half at Arizona in Week 5. He went 0-4 after the injury before doctors decided to shut him down and allow the shoulder to heal.


Winston hasn't thrown a pass since the Bucs' Nov. 5 loss at New Orleans.


Koetter said it's too early to know how Winston may have benefitted from the rest.


"Let's see. I mean, I haven't seen him throw yet and I haven't even talked to Jameis since he had this workout, but we'll see," Koetter said. "Until he's officially cleared, we'll be making the game plan both ways and we'll see what happens come Wednesday."


Winston may have benefited from watching Fitzpatrick play. The 34-year-old veteran protected the football with three touchdown passes and no interceptions during his three starts and did a good job of spreading the football around.


"Ryan did fine," Koetter said following the loss to the Falcons. "He hung in there. Again, he didn't turn the ball over and when you don't turn the ball over in the NFL, you're going to have a chance and we did."


NOTES: T Demar Dotson, who entered Sunday's game with a hamstring injury, suffered a knee injury that forced him to leave the game at Atlanta. But he returned later. ... S T.J. Ward suffered a concussion in Sunday's game and is in the league's protocol. ... RB Doug Martin was forced to leave Sunday's game with a concussion and is in the league's protocol. ... G Kevin Pamphile left Sunday's game at Atlanta briefly with an elbow injury, but returned. ... C Ali Marpet suffered a knee injury in Sunday's game at Atlanta, but was able to return and finish the game.

REPORT CARD VS. FALCONS


--PASSING OFFENSE: B - Ryan Fitzpatrick was bad in the first half, but gave his team a chance to win. He rallied the Bucs from a 27-6 deficit to make it 27-20 with the football on the Falcons 18-yard line. But they were unable to convert on fourth-and-1. Ryan passed for 283 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions.


--RUSHING OFFENSE: C-minus - The Bucs rushed for 94 yards and averaged a more robust 4.1 yards per attempt, but they couldn't sustain much of a ground game. The highlight was two Peyton Barber touchdown runs. RB Doug Martin had a good first quarter before he was forced to leave the game with a concussion.


--PASS DEFENSE: F - Julio Jones is an all-world talent. But his 253 yards receiving were the most by any player in the Bucs' 41-year history. He had two touchdowns, including one thrown by another receiver, Mohamed Sanu. The Bucs went another game without a sack and only hit Matt Ryan three times.


--RUSH DEFENSE: D - The Bucs allowed the Falcons to rush for 148 yards and 5.3 yards per carry. This is without Devonta Freeman. Tampa Bay's defensive line was manhandled all day long.


--SPECIAL TEAMS: B - The Bucs made their two field-goal attempts and Bryan Anger punted well with a 53.3-yard average. But the Bucs allowed an average of 25.8 yards on kickoffs.

--COACHING: F - The Bucs should know how to slow down Julio Jones. They say they tried 14 different coverages on him but nothing worked. Coordinator Mike Smith's defense allows more than 30 points per game on the road.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL notebook: Siemian back in at QB for Broncos
November 27, 2017


The Denver Broncos' quarterback carousel once again will turn to Trevor Siemian after coach Vance Joseph announced Monday that Paxton Lynch will be sidelined two to four weeks with a high ankle injury.


Lynch sustained the non-contact injury during the third quarter of Sunday's 21-14 loss to the Raiders on Sunday at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. The 2016 first-round pick completed 9 of 14 passes for 41 yards with one interception while making his first start of the season and third career.


Siemian replaced Lynch and completed 11 of 21 passes for 149 yards with two touchdowns against the Raiders. The 25-year-old Siemian had been benched in favor of Lynch after accounting for 14 turnovers (10 interceptions, four fumbles) in his previous seven games this season.


The Broncos (3-8) will look to snap a seven-game losing skid on Sunday against the host Miami Dolphins (4-7).

--The New England Patriots placed tight end Martellus Bennett on injured reserve.


The move comes one day after Bennett was inactive in the Patriots' 35-17 win over the Miami Dolphins due to shoulder and hamstring injuries. New England also put defensive back Nate Ebner on injured reserve.


Bennett caught six passes for 53 yards in two games with the Patriots after the club claimed him off waivers on Nov. 9 following his release from the Green Bay Packers. The 30-year-old intended to undergo season-ending shoulder surgery when the Packers waived him, but he signed with the Patriots instead.


Monday's move could signal the end of the career for Bennett, who openly discussed the possibility of retiring at the end of this season.


--Buffalo Bills wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin has a torn meniscus in his right knee, the team announced.


Benjamin, who was acquired from the Carolina Panthers on Oct. 31, sustained the injury during Buffalo's 54-24 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers on Nov. 19.


The 26-year-old failed to practice last week and did not travel with the team for the Bills' 16-10 win over the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday.


Coach Sean McDermott was asked about a torn meniscus during his Monday press conference and said that Benjamin did not suffer the injury and is considered day-to-day. The team later said McDermott thought the question was about torn ligaments.

--Detroit Lions safety Tavon Wilson was placed on injured reserve with an ailing shoulder, the team announced.


Wilson aggravated the injury during Detroit's 30-23 loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Thanksgiving Day.


The 27-year-old Wilson registered 55 tackles, two sacks, a forced fumble and an interception in 10 games this season for the Lions (6-5). Wilson is one season removed from recording a career-high 89 tackles to go along with two interceptions and one sack.


Miles Killebrew likely will see additional playing time in his absence. The 24-year-old has 28 tackles, a forced fumble and an interception this season. Detroit also signed wide receiver Bradley Marquez and safety Rolan Milligan from the practice squad to the active roster.


--Carolina Panthers tight end Greg Olsen, who made his long-awaited return to the lineup on Sunday after an eight-week absence due to a broken foot, received positive news after seeing a specialist.


Olsen was examined orthopedic specialist Dr. Robert Anderson and his foot was judged to be "OK," the Charlotte Observer reported, citing a source.


Anderson performed the surgery in September to repair Olsen's broken foot. He was placed on injured reserve on Sept. 19.


The 32-year-old Olsen returned to the field in Sunday's 35-27 victory over the New York Jets, catching Cam Newton's first pass attempt of the day, a 10-yarder over the middle. But his foot got sore thereafter and he left the game in the second quarter and did not return.


--Denver Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib opened up about his role in a fight with Oakland Raiders wide receiver Michael Crabtree that saw both players ejected from Sunday's game at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum.


While Talib expressed a measure of remorse for the first-quarter altercation, he also said that Crabtree started the fireworks by punching Denver teammate Chris Harris on the previous play.


"I came out there to play football on Sunday," Talib said. "I really don't know what (Crabtree) came out there to do. I just came out there to play football. He came out here on his extra stuff -- one thing led to another, man. It's unfortunate. I wish it didn't happen, but it happened."


Talib also said that he wasn't defending Harris when he ripped Crabtree's gold chain off his neck. Harris accused Crabtree of punching him in the stomach on the play before the melee.

 

[CNOTES]

Week 13 Betting Notes
November 28, 2017


Business is definitely starting to pick up on the road to the NFL playoffs. Almost all of the top teams in the league are on the road in Week 13, including six of the eight division leaders. There are some great storylines for bettors to keep in mind before heading to BookMaker.eu this week and placing wagers.


The Greatest Show on Grass


The Rams haven't had a winning season or been in the playoffs since 2004, but they're well on their way to breaking that 13-year playoff hex this season.


This week, Los Angeles is favored by a touchdown on the road against the Cardinals. The Rams haven't been favored on the road often since the "Greatest Show on Turf" fizzled out, but this week, they're giving a full touchdown to the Cardinals in the desert. It's the first time the Rams have been favored by this many points on the road since 2003 when Kurt Warner was the quarterback, Torry Holt was in the prime of his career and Steve Bartman was just another fan in the bleachers at Wrigley Field during the Cubs' run to the NLCS.


A Two-Dog Night in Seattle


The Seahawks aren't accustomed to being underdogs at home. In fact, prior to the game three weeks ago against Atlanta, the last time Seattle was an underdog at CenturyLink Field came back in Russell Wilson's rookie season.


Seattle didn't open up as a pup to the Falcons but did close that way. Now, they're opening as underdogs at BookMaker.eu in their very next home game against the Eagles. It's the first time in five years that the Seahawks have been pups in consecutive home games, and it could be the first time they've lost three straight games at home since 2008.


De Ja Vu in the Windy City


The Bears are virtually never favorites, and we found out why that's the case four weeks ago when they welcomed the Packers to Soldier Field. They were beaten 23-16 in what is still, to date, the only win in Brett Hundley's career.


Chicago has now lost four straight games in which it was a chalk, a mark that dates back to the 2015 season.


This week, the Bears are 5-point favorites against the 49ers. The last time they were favored by this many points in any game was in the first week of December in 2015 when this same San Francisco team came to the Windy City.


De ja vu much?


A Chalky November


The only game left to play in the month of November is the Thursday nighter between the Redskins and the Cowboys. Heading into the last game of the month, favorites are a whopping 37-15-4 ATS, huge month for public bettors.


On Thursday Night Football, we're going to be in a situation where the underdog Redskins are the public side. Dallas has been beaten in three straight games with Ezekiel Elliott serving his six-game suspension.


NFL Week 13 Odds
Redskins at Cowboys (-1, 44)
Lions at Ravens (-2.5, 42)
49ers at Bears (-5, 39.5)
Vikings at Falcons (-3, 47.5)
Patriots at Bills (+9, 49)
Broncos at Dolphins (-1, 38)
Texans at Titans (-7.5, 42)
Colts at Jaguars (-9.5, 41)
Buccaneers at Packers (OFF)
Chiefs at Jets (+5, 44)
Panthers at Saints (-4, 47.5)
Browns at Chargers (-13, 42.5)
Rams at Cardinals (+7, 45.5)
Giants at Raiders (-7.5, 44)
Eagles at Seahawks (+3, 48)
Steelers at Bengals (+5.5, 43)

 

[CNOTES]

49ers turn to Jimmy Garoppolo as starting quarterback
November 28, 2017


SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) The San Francisco 49ers are ready for the start of the Jimmy Garoppolo era after announcing Tuesday that the franchise's quarterback of the future will make his first start for the team this week.


Coach Kyle Shanahan met with Garoppolo and former starter C.J. Beathard to inform them that Garoppolo will make his first start for San Francisco (1-10) on Sunday at Chicago (3-8).


The Niners acquired Garoppolo on Oct. 31 from New England for a 2018 second-round pick to be the franchise's long-term quarterback even though he had made only two starts in three-plus seasons for the Patriots.


After taking time to learn the new offense, Garoppolo made his San Francisco debut in Sunday's 24-13 loss to Seattle after starter Beathard left with injuries to his hip and knee with just over a minute left.


Garoppolo completed both passes, including a 10-yard touchdown pass to Louis Murphy. Now he will get an even bigger opportunity to show what he can do for his new team.


Garoppolo has little NFL game film to go on but his performance in those two starts last year when Tom Brady was suspended was impressive and made him a highly sought after quarterback. He completed 42 of 59 passes for 496 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions in wins against Arizona and Miami.


He got hurt in the second quarter of his second start and has thrown just six passes since then - including the two on Sunday - but the Niners still believe he's the player to build around.


Garoppolo is eligible to become a free agent in the offseason but the way he plays down the stretch could help set the market for what he will be worth and facilitate a long-term deal with San Francisco. The 49ers also have the option of using the franchise tag to keep Garoppolo if they can't reach a long-term contract.


Beathard made five starts as a rookie after taking over from Brian Hoyer, who replaced Garoppolo as Brady's backup in New England. Beathard completed 54.9 percent of his passes, averaged 6.4 yards per attempt and had four TDs and six interceptions for a 69.2 passer rating.


Beathard was also sacked 19 times and hit many others while playing behind a patch-work line that could get starting right tackle Trent Brown back this week after he missed the most recent game with a shoulder injury.

 

[CNOTES]

Geno Smith will start in place of Eli Manning for Giants
November 28, 2017


EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) The Eli Manning era with the New York Giants may be coming to an end.


And if it is, it is ending ugly.


The Giants announced Tuesday that the two-time Super Bowl MVP was being benched for the first time in more than 13 years so they could evaluate the other quarterbacks on the roster over the final month of a lost-and-injury-filled season.


The decision to sit the 36-year-old Manning was totally unexpected, especially with five games left in the regular season.


It was clear the decision hurt and annoyed Manning, who has been the face of the Giants (2-9) since they made a bold draft day trade with the-then San Diego Chargers in 2004 to swap first-round picks and get the No. 1 overall selection to the Meadowlands.


Manning expressed his unhappiness but once again he played the good soldier, voicing his support for veteran Geno Smith, who will start against Oakland on Sunday.


His emotional pain was all over his face. His eyes welled with tears talking to reporters. His chin quivered when asked about how much this hurt. His face got red the more he talked.


Coach Ben McAdoo gave Manning the option of starting to keep his streak of 210 consecutive starts alive, but he didn't want any part of that.


''You start knowing you are going to come out of the game to keep a streak alive, maybe, that's not what it is about,'' Manning said.


''It's not a preseason game where you are going to start to the half, the next week a quarter, a series, that's not fair. That's not fair to me, not fair to Geno, not how you play. You play to win. When you are named the starting quarterback you think it's your job to go win the football game.


''If you are going to play a little bit, I didn't think it was the right way to play,'' said Manning, who became the Giants starting quarterback 10 games into his rookie season in 2004, which was about a month or so before Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz turned 12 years old.


Manning's voice broke when asked how this one hurt, noting it was one of his hardest days as a Giant.


''It's been a hard day to handle this, but (I'll) hang in there and figure it out,'' he said.


Manning spoke with the media for less than four minutes. He then took his backpack and left the locker room.


McAdoo said he made the decision to start Smith over the weekend, and co-owner John Mara and general manager Jerry Reese were in agreement.


''This is not a statement about anything other than we are 2-9, and we have to do what is best for the organization moving forward, and that means evaluating every position,'' Reese said in a statement.


''I told Eli this morning that an organization could not ask for anymore in a franchise quarterback. He has been that and more. Nobody knows what the future holds, but right now, this is what we think is best for the franchise.''


McAdoo, the second-year head coach, said the organization needed to learn more about Smith and rookie third-round draft pick Davis Webb in the final weeks of the season. Smith took four snaps in a blowout loss to the Rams. Webb has not played.


McAdoo refused to say if this was the end of the Manning era.


''I have a lot of confidence in Eli as a player, as a quarterback,'' McAdoo said. ''But at this point, it's my responsibility for the organization to make sure we take a look at Geno and at some point take a look at Davis and give them the opportunity to show what they can do.''


Manning and Smith were told about the decision on Tuesday, and later the team was filled in.


McAdoo also plans to give Webb an opportunity, but probably not this week. Manning, who recently passed the 50,000-yard mark, will be the backup.


Webb called Manning the best teammate he has ever had.


''If you had a Mount Rushmore of not only New York Giants, but New York athletes, he'd be on it,'' Webb said.


Manning's streak is the second-longest streak by a quarterback in NFL history, behind Brett Favre's 297.


Manning has started every Giants game since Nov. 21, 2004, when he took over for veteran Kurt Warner in the 10th game of his rookie season.


Manning has also started 12 postseason games, and twice led the Giants to Super Bowl victories.


Warner, now a NFL Network analyst, criticized Tuesday's decision by the Giants and said he was happy that Manning said he didn't want to start to protect his streak.


''This is so much bigger than Eli Manning,'' Warner said. ''This is about an entire organization that has gone sideways. If you've got one guy that represents what this organization has been about and the character and the success of this organization, it's that guy that has been under center in Eli Manning. He's never done anything but show character and do things the right way.''


A second-round pick in 2013, Smith signed with the Giants as a free agent in the offseason after being released by the Jets. He played in only two games in 2016 with his season ending with a major knee injury.


Smith told Manning that he supports him and has his respect.


''This guy has done a tremendous job in this league,'' Smith said. ''He has done a bunch of things for this organization and none of that can ever be taken away or forgotten. This is a business and it's tough. My number is up so it is my time to go out there and do what I am supposed to do and make sure I get the job done.''


Manning holds almost all of the franchise's major passing records. This season, he has thrown 14 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. He will turn 37 on Jan. 3.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL notebook: Giants replace Manning as starting QB
November 28, 2017


New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning probably would have preferred to be answering questions about last week or better yet, the upcoming week's game.


Instead, the veteran quarterback who has started 210 straight games for the Giants was standing before a crowd of reporters, at times fighting to hold back tears as he talked about the stunning decision by Giants coach Ben McAdoo to name Geno Smith the starting quarterback for this weekend's game.


Manning, who has two years left on his contract, was asked about the future. Composing himself, he said. "I don't know. I don't know. One week at a time."

--Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will make his first start since joining San Francisco when the 49ers play the Chicago Bears on Sunday.


San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan met with Garoppolo and C.J. Beathard on Tuesday to inform them of his decision.


Garoppolo was acquired by the 49ers in a trade with the New England Patriots last month. He made his debut with his new team on Sunday in mop-up duty after Beathard left with a leg injury.


Garoppolo entered the game with just 1:07 remaining, but had enough time to throw a 10-yard touchdown pass to Louis Murphy in the 24-13 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Beathard started the past five games after replacing Brian Hoyer, who began the season as San Francisco's starting quarterback.


--Running back Darren McFadden announced his retirement after 10 NFL seasons.


McFadden was officially waived by the Dallas Cowboys on Monday, although news of the impending release occurred the day before. He played his first seven seasons with the Oakland Raiders before joining the Cowboys.


McFadden topped 1,000 rushing yards twice in his career -- compiling a career-best 1,157 for the Raiders in 2010 and 1,089 for the Cowboys in 2015. McFadden was the fourth overall pick of the 2008 draft. He rushed for 5,421 yards and 28 touchdowns and also had five receiving scores.


--Arizona Cardinals coach Bruce Arians told reporters that he has plenty of confidence in quarterback Blaine Gabbert.


With injured Carson Palmer pondering retirement, Arians was if he'd be confident with Gabbert as his starter next season.


Gabbert has fared well in two games as the starter for the Cardinals, recording a 61.1 completion percentage and 87.6 passer rating. The former first-round pick has been thrust into action with Palmer sidelined by a season-ending broken arm and backup Drew Stanton nursing an injured knee.


--USC quarterback Sam Darnold dismissed a rumor that he would stay in school for his junior season should the Cleveland Browns secure the top overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft.


NFL Network's Albert Breer told Cleveland radio station 92.3 The Fan earlier this month that Darnold is "going to take everything into account and that includes who's at the top of the draft."


--Defensive back Dave Cloutier, who was the first native of Maine to play for the New England Patriots, died earlier this month at his home in Palm Coast, Fla., the team announced.


The Patriots said Tuesday that Cloutier died on Nov. 6 at the age of 78. The team did not disclose any details on the cause of death.


Cloutier signed a free agent deal with the then-Boston Patriots in 1964. Cloutier led the Patriots with 20 punt returns for 136 yards while appearing in 12 games that season as a defensive back and punt returner.

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 13
November 29, 2017


THURSDAY, NOV. 30


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
WASHINGTON at DALLAS (NBC/NFL, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Cowboys no wins or covers last 3 minus Zeke. Dallas 3-14-1 vs. spread last 18 without Zeke (pre-dating his arrival in Dallas). Skins have covered 3 of 4 since home loss vs. Dallas on Oct. 29. These teams have split spread decisions each of previous 4 years, and Skins have covered 9 of last 10 at Dallas. Jay Gruden “over" 24-8 since late 2015.
Tech Edge: Skins and slight to “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.


SUNDAY, DEC. 3


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DETROIT at BALTIMORE (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Ravens have covered three of last four TY, two of those via shutout. Balt “over” 10-6 last 16 since late 2016. Lions 3-1-1 vs. line away this season, also “over” 8-3 in 2017, 10-3 last 13 reg season since late 2016.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Lions, based on “totals” and team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN FRANCISCO at CHICAGO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bears 4-2-1 vs. line since switch to Trubisky at QB. Chicago 4-1-1 vs. spread at Soldier Field this season and 7-2-2 vs. points at home since mid 2016. Niners had dropped three straight vs. line prior to win over G-Men, and not-so-bad 3-2 vs. spread away TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bears, based on recent trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MINNESOTA at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Hot Vikes have now won and covered six in a row. Also “over” 4 of last 5 this season. After dropping five in a row vs. line, Falcs have now won and covered three in a row. Falcs also "over" last two after 16-3 “over” a year ago.
Tech Edge: Vikings and "over," based on recent trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Belichick has now won seven in a row SU and covered last 5, and 6 of last 7, TY. Bills 1-3 SU and vs. line last four and 2-4-1 last 7 vs. number TY. Pats have only lost once SU last 13 at Orchard Park (in 2011) and are 10-2-1 vs. spread in those games. Five of last six meetings at Buffalo have been “over” though Belichick “under” 5-2 last seven in 2017.
Tech Edge: Patriots and slight to “over,” based on team and series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DENVER at MIAMI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Broncos no wins or covers last seven TY, that’s the longest Denver skid since 1967! Dolphins, however, 0-4-1 vs. line last four TY. Broncos no wins or covers last seven as visitor.
Tech Edge: Slight to Dolphins, based on team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
HOUSTON at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans now have a win minus Deshaun Watson TY but still just 2-3 vs. spread in games he does not start. Revenge for Titans after 57-14 loss back in Week Four. But Tennessee just 1-7 vs. spread last eight against Texans. Titans now on 20-9-1 “over” run and last four and six of last seven in this series “over” as well.
Tech Edge: "Over” and slight to Texans, based on “totals” and series trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags only 1-3 vs. line at home TY (as opposed to 5-1 vs. spread away), now 2-7 vs. points last nine at EverBank Field. Colts just 2-3 vs. spread away TY but have covered three of last four overall. Jags won 27-0 at Lucas Oil back on Oct. 22 and have now covered last five in series.
Tech Edge: Slight to Jags, based on series trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TAMPA BAY at GREEN BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Old NFC "Central" rivals. Bucs were recently on 1-8-1 spread skid before winning and covering twice, but still 3-9-1 vs. line last 13 since late LY. Pack however on 2-4 spread skid since Aaron Rodgers went down, and no covers last three at Lambeau TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Packers, based on extended Bucs woes.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
KANSAS CITY at N.Y. JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Skidding Chiefs 1-5 SU and vs. line last six TY and lost at this site two weeks ago vs. Giants. Andy Reid had been 15-3 vs. spread previous 18 away from Arrowhead before dropping these last three. Jets 6-121 vs. spread last nine TY and have covered six of last seven at MetLife (5-1 TY).
Tech Edge: Jets, based on recent trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CLEVELAND at L.A. CHARGERS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Bolts were the last team Browns beat and the only SU win for Cleveland since 2016! But Brownies 2-9 vs. spread TY and now 8-29-1 last 38 on board since early 2015. Browns also “over” 6-1 last seven away. Bolts 6-1 vs. line last seven TY and have covered last two as chalk. Bolts also “under” 10-5 last 15 since late 2016.
Tech Edge: Chargers and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CAROLINA at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Saints are 8-1 SU last nine TY and are 6-3 vs. line those games. Though note just 2-3 vs. spread at Superdome TY. Saints have now covered five straight in series, including both in Panthers’ Super Bowl season of 2015, one of those games minus Brees. Panthers 5-1 vs. line away TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Saints, based on team and series trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
L.A. RAMS at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Rams ripped Big Red 33-0 in London back on Oct. 22. LA was were 5-0 SU and vs. spread away TY before losing at Minnesota. Rams won SU last two at Glendale when they were bad. Even after Jags win, Big Red 3-7-1 vs. spread TY and now on 6-14-1 spread skid since mid 2016. Cards also “under” 7-4 TY.
Tech Edge: Rams, based on team and series trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
N.Y. GIANTS at OAKLAND (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Giants “under” 10-4 last 14 away, though Raiders “over” 7-2 last 9 at Coliseum. Oakland though is “under” 6-5 TY. Raiders also on 2-6-1 spread slide TY, while G-Men 3-3 vs. line away.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under” and Giants, based on “totals” and team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PHILADELPHIA at SEATTLE (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Eagles have won last 9 SU and covered last 8 TY, also won and covered last three away. Philly also “over” 9-3-1 away since last season. Seattle on 4-8-1 spread skid in reg.-season games for Carroll. Seahawks 1-5 vs. line last 6 as reg.-season host.
Tech Edge: Eagles and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


MONDAY, DEC. 4
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Steel has won last six SU, covering four, though just 3-3 vs. line away TY. Tomlin now working on 4-game win streak vs. Marvin Lewis, and Pittsburgh has won and covered last three in reg season at Paul Brown Stadium and four in a row SU, including playoff win in 2015. Bengals “under” 10-4 last 14 since late 2016, Steel “under” 8-2 TY.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Steelers, based on “totals” and series trends.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL opening line report: Divisional showdown in New Orleans highlights Week 13
Patrick Everson


"We know that the public will look to back New Orleans, so we wanted to be a step higher on that side. Don’t be surprised to see this finish at -3."


Week 13 on the NFL docket includes a divisional battle for first place among two teams that finished below .500 last season. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines for a quartet of contests, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.


Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4)


New Orleans went 7-9 SU last year and lost its first two games this season, then made an impressive about-face with eight consecutive victories (7-1 ATS). However, the win streak came to an end Sunday for the Saints (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS), who lost to the Los Angeles Rams 26-20 as a 2.5-point road underdog.


Carolina, which reached the Super Bowl two seasons ago before a dismal 6-10 SU campaign last year, has won and cashed each of its last four. The Panthers (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) were 5.5-point chalk at the New York Jets on Sunday and covered when a late field goal finished off a 35-27 victory.

“It’s tough to trust either of these teams, in my opinion, but they are both quality clubs,” Cooley said. “Obviously a ton on the line, given the division climate, and we know that the public will look to back New Orleans, so we wanted to be a step higher on that side. Don’t be surprised to see this finish at -3.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (+3)


Without question, Philadelphia is the class of the NFC and perhaps even the whole league. The Eagles (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS) have won nine in a row on the field and eight straight against the oddsmakers, including Sunday’s 31-3 rout of Chicago as a 14-point favorite.


Seattle (7-4 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) is always a playoff threat, but with its depleted defense – no Richard Sherman or Kam Chancellor, among others – and a surprising Rams squad in the NFC West, things won’t get any easier. The Seahawks weathered the injuries Sunday to notch a 24-13 victory at San Francisco laying 7 points.

“This is the first time Seattle has opened as a ‘dog in a long time, but it’s certainly warranted here,” Cooley said. “Philadelphia is playing like the second-best team in the league, and the Eagles are not far behind the Patriots in our power ratings. Early action indicates this will get past the key number sooner than later.”


And indeed it did, as Philly moved to -4 for this Sunday night prime-time showdown.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-1)

The loser of this Thursday night meeting can probably start thinking hard about next season. Dallas has lost its last three games, all without suspended star running back Ezekiel Elliott, who still must sit out three more games. The Cowboys (5-6 SU and ATS) got dumped by the Los Angeles Chargers 28-6 as a 1-point home pup on Thanksgiving Day.


Washington, also 5-6 SU and ATS, played the Turkey Day Thursday nighter and came away with a 20-10 win over the New York Giants giving 7 points at home.


“Despite an early move to -1.5, I’m sure we’ll see some sharp money on Washington at some point,” Cooley said. “The Cowboys have had their backs against the wall for two weeks, and they’ve come out flat each time. I’d be hard-pressed to bet on this Dallas squad right now.”

Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-3)


Minnesota has been far more stout than expected this season, with third-string quarterback Case Keenum proving quite capable, complemented by a solid defense. The Vikings (9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS) are on a seven-game winning streak, besting Detroit 30-23 on Thanksgiving as a 2.5-point road chalk to cover for the sixth straight week.


Defending NFC champion Atlanta continues to look up at Carolina and New Orleans just within the South Division. The Falcons (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS) have won and cashed three straight, though, topping Tampa Bay 34-20 as a 10.5-point road favorite Sunday.

“My gut feeling is that this will come down a decent bit. Some of the team wanted to see -1 or -2 here, instead of the field goal, but that’s what we settled on,” Cooley said. “The Falcons are certainly no cakewalk for opponents, but it will be interesting to see how they handle that vaunted Vikings defense.”