Cnotes 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[CNOTES]

NFL
Long Sheet


Week 13


If this report updates, I'll edit this reply to show it.


Thursday, November 30


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WASHINGTON (5 - 6) at DALLAS (5 - 6) - 11/30/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 3


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DETROIT (6 - 5) at BALTIMORE (5 - 5) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 10) at CHICAGO (3 - 8) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (9 - 2) at ATLANTA (7 - 4) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 31-49 ATS (-22.9 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
ATLANTA is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (9 - 2) at BUFFALO (6 - 5) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 95-68 ATS (+20.2 Units) off a division game since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 112-80 ATS (+24.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 61-39 ATS (+18.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 118-83 ATS (+26.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 82-53 ATS (+23.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (3 - 8) at MIAMI (4 - 7) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
DENVER is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
DENVER is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
DENVER is 58-82 ATS (-32.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MIAMI is 41-17 ATS (+22.3 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 43-64 ATS (-27.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
MIAMI is 55-80 ATS (-33.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MIAMI is 33-53 ATS (-25.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (4 - 6) at TENNESSEE (7 - 4) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 8) at JACKSONVILLE (7 - 4) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 5-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (4 - 7) at GREEN BAY (5 - 6) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (6 - 5) at NY JETS (4 - 7) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (8 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (8 - 3) - 12/3/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 112-82 ATS (+21.8 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 81-57 ATS (+18.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 56-34 ATS (+18.6 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 64-41 ATS (+18.9 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 5-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (0 - 11) at LA CHARGERS (5 - 6) - 12/3/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-0 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 1-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA RAMS (8 - 3) at ARIZONA (5 - 6) - 12/3/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 182-228 ATS (-68.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 182-228 ATS (-68.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 82-117 ATS (-46.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 130-180 ATS (-68.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 141-180 ATS (-57.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 70-96 ATS (-35.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
ARIZONA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 3-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 3-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (2 - 9) at OAKLAND (5 - 6) - 12/3/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 34-59 ATS (-30.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-104 ATS (-38.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-104 ATS (-38.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-104 ATS (-38.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 33-58 ATS (-30.8 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 38-77 ATS (-46.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 21-42 ATS (-25.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (10 - 1) at SEATTLE (7 - 4) - 12/3/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 66-37 ATS (+25.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 4


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PITTSBURGH (9 - 2) at CINCINNATI (5 - 6) - 12/4/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 104-73 ATS (+23.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 5-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Week 13


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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 30


WASHINGTON @ DALLAS
Washington is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Washington




Sunday, December 3


SAN FRANCISCO @ CHICAGO
San Francisco is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Chicago is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home


TAMPA BAY @ GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Tampa Bay's last 21 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Green Bay's last 18 games


HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE
Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Tennessee
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games


MINNESOTA @ ATLANTA
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Minnesota


DETROIT @ BALTIMORE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games
Baltimore is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home


NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Buffalo's last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing at home against New England


INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Indianapolis's last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games


DENVER @ MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games on the road
Denver is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games
Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Denver


KANSAS CITY @ NY JETS
Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing NY Jets
Kansas City is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
NY Jets is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
NY Jets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City


CLEVELAND @ LA CHARGERS
Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games on the road
LA Chargers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games


CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS
Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina


NY GIANTS @ OAKLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of NY Giants's last 15 games on the road
Oakland is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Oakland's last 11 games at home


LA RAMS @ ARIZONA
LA Rams is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Rams is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Arizona's last 17 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona's last 10 games


PHILADELPHIA @ SEATTLE
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia

 

[CNOTES]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 13
Monty Andrews


The Jaguars come into the Week 13 with a league-best 41 sacks, resulting in 269 lost yards overall.


San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (-3.5, 39.5)


49ers' wretched red-zone record vs. Bears' bend-but-don't-break D


It's a battle of teams who will likely have high picks in the 2018 draft when the Chicago Bears host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday afternoon. The Bears have dropped four in a row to sink to the bottom of the NFC North division - a disappointing development considering Chicago was near the .500 mark prior to the skid. Getting back there is highly improbable, but Sunday's encounter with the 1-10 49ers offers hope thanks to a sizeable edge in opponent red zone play.


Bettors can dig up a variety of factors for San Francisco having just one victory on the season - and near the top of the list is the 49ers' season-long inability to convert trips inside the opponents' 20-yard line into touchdowns. San Francisco comes into Week 13 ranked 25th out of 32 teams in red-zone touchdown rate, reaching the end zone just 48.2 percent of those time. All those wasted trips downfield offer a reasonable explanation for why the 49ers average just 17 points per game in 2017.


Life doesn't get any easier for the San Francisco offense in this one, as the host Bears have actually been a solid defensive unit when it comes to red-zone scoring prevention. Teams have turned red-zone opportunities into six points just 48.7 percent of the time against Chicago, the 11th-best rate in the league. Neither team is expected to put many points on the board - check out that total - but give the Bears a big green checkmark in the red-zone D department - and that mismatch could very well decide this one.


Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5, 40.5)


Colts' terrible QB protection vs. the phenomenon known as "Sasksonville"


The Jacksonville Jaguars can't get to Week 13 quickly enough. After seeing their four-game winning streak snapped in a 27-24 loss to the Arizona Cardinals, the Jaguars will look to regain sole possession of top spot in the AFC South as they host the division-rival Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon. Jacksonville is already a near-double-digit favorite in this one, and could make it a blowout if they can exert their pass-rush dominance against a Colts team that has struggled to protect the quarterback.


Losing Andrew Luck for the season was certainly a blow to the Indianapolis offense, but it isn't like the Colts' offensive line would have done a good job of shielding him, anyhow. Indianapolis quarterbacks have been taken down a league-high 47 times so far this season; only two teams allowed more sacks than that in the entire 2016 season. Jacoby Brissett absorbed five sacks the last time these teams met, when Jacksonville cruised to a 27-0 victory back on Oct. 22.


But don't take all those takedowns personally, Jacoby - that's just how the Jaguars roll. They come into the week with a league-best 41 sacks, resulting in 269 lost yards overall. The Jacksonville defense has been incredibly proficient in a number of areas - sitting tied for third in forced fumbles (17), sharing the lead in recovered fumbles (11) and scoring a league-high four touchdowns on those recoveries - but it's all those sacks that should have Colts fans and bettors alike concerned this Sunday.


Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers (-13.5, 42.5)


Browns' robust run game vs. Chargers' ground struggles


Will Cleveland win a game this season? You might fancy a wager if you believe the Browns will pull out a win somewhere along the way - but don't expect that victory to come in Week 13, with the visitors a nearly-two-touchdown underdog against a Chargers team that has rolled to back-to-back victories and sits just one game back of division-leading Kansas City in the AFC West. But stay tuned, bettors: Cleveland might have a way to keep this one closer than expected.


Cleveland's offensive struggles are well noted - the team averages a league-worst 15.1 points per game on the back of a passing attack in which the Browns complete just over 54 percent of their attempts. But the running game has actually been an area of strength so far in 2017, averaging an impressive 4.4 yards per carry - the seventh-highest mark in the league. Isaiah Crowell has been able to move the chains for most of the season, provided that he doesn't get knocked out of the game script.


The Chargers will look to force Cleveland into repeated third-down situations, with the Browns converting a league-worst 30 percent of those opportunities to date. But Los Angeles might have trouble keeping the Browns from excelling on the ground - the home side is allowing 4.9 yards per carry this season, tied with New England for the worst rate against in the NFL. If Crowell can break off a handful of meaningful runs, the Browns could control the clock sufficiently to cover this massive spread.


Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (+7, 45.5)


Rams' elite kicking game vs. Cardinals' field goal follies


The Los Angeles Rams essentially control their playoff fate as they head into Arizona for a Sunday afternoon appointment with the NFC West-rival Cardinals. The Rams own a one-game lead over the Seattle Seahawks atop the division, and can help bolster their postseason chances with a win this weekend. Much of the focus will be on the Los Angeles offense taking on Arizona's impressive defense - but let's not overlook the kicking game, where the visitors own a significant advantage.


Good teams get meaningful contributions from just about everyone on the roster - and the Rams certainly fit that bill, with terrific quarterback play from Jared Goff, an elite running game led by Todd Gurley and a stout defense anchored by Aaron Donald. But we can't forget placekicker Greg Zuerlein, who is having a career year with 32 field goals on 34 attempts through 11 games - including a 16-of-17 success rate on kicks of 40 yards or longer. The Rams' 94.1-percent field goal conversion rate ranks fourth overall.


The Cardinals have given plenty of points away via the turnover; they cough up the ball an average of 1.6 times per game, ranking 26th out of 32 teams entering the week. But they've also been negligent when it comes to spoiling field-goal opportunities. Kicker Phil Dawson has whiffed on six of his 23 field-goal attempts, including four from 30-39 yards. Not only do the Cardinals rank 25th in conversion rate league-wide, they've also seen opposing kickers make every field-goal attempt through 11 weeks.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Tuesday, November 28






Week 12 faves 12-4 ATS
Last 2 weeks faves 22-7-1 ATS (75.9%)
Since Week 7 faves are 55-24-6 ATS (69.6%)




Top NFL ATS Teams:
1. Eagles 9-2 ATS
2. Vikes 8-3 ATS
t3. Pats 7-4 ATS
t3. Panthers 7-4 ATS
t3. LARams 7-4 ATS
t3. Saints 7-4 ATS
t3. Texans 7-4 ATS




Top NFL Over teams:
1. Lions 8-3
t2. Pack 7-4
t2. Titans 7-4
t2. Skins 7-4




Top NFL Under teams:
1. Steelers 8-3
t2. Cards 7-4
t2. Bears 7-4
t2. Chargers 7-4
t2. Seahawks 7-4

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday's Best Bet
November 29, 2017

NFL Week 13 TNF Betting Preview (NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)


Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys

It's rare that you get a TNF matchup with both teams on full rest but that's precisely what we've got for this NFC East showdown between the Redskins and Cowboys. The NFL has done a better job of making sure the full rest scenario for TNF now happens twice a year (Week 1 and after Thanksgiving) by pitting two combatants on TNF the week following their games on Thanksgiving, and acknowledging that for this contest should be your first step in breaking down this game.


After that it's all about breaking down the stats, trends, etc for two teams that basically have their seasons on the line this week. Both Washington and Dallas sit at 5-6 SU and two games behind the projected final wildcard spot in the NFC, meaning that the loser of this game is likely done in 2017, while the winner gets to cling on to their playoff hopes for at least another week.

Washington (-1.5); Total set at 45.5


Although it's still early in the week, this game has already seen the favorite flip-flop for this contest after Dallas opened up in the -2 range. The Cowboys have been a hot mess since RB Ezekiel Elliott began serving his suspension, as it's been three straight weeks of scoring 9 points or less in three losses by at least 20 points.


Dallas' offense has only scored a grand total of two TD's during those three outings and now have what was once a promising 2017 campaign on the fringe of being a lost cause. There is also the fact that the revenge angle is working against the Cowboys this week as well as they beat Washington 33-19 at the end of October back when things were still hopeful and optimistic for this club.


Given the recent stretch of play by the Cowboys it's no surprise to see them flip over to underdogs for this game as there is little trust or faith in this team's ability to score right now. Losing Elliott is definitely part of it, but the entire offense looks like a shell of its former self as they can't even make many plays in the passing game. If that continues, then Dallas' season will be over rather quickly here, but you've got to figure that after three straight weeks of futility and the fate of their playoff chances basically on the line, this ultra-conservative Cowboys attack we've seen over the past three weeks may turn over a new leaf.


Washington's 5-6 SU record feels a lot different than Dallas' as they've missed quite few opportunities late in games to get the W. They managed to seal the deal against the lowly Giants a week ago, but prior to that they had a OT loss with a blown late lead to New Orleans, a comeback against Minnesota fall short, and close losses to Philadelphia and Kansas City as well.


Had the Redskins gotten a few breaks go their way, there record would be much different then it is at the moment. It's Washington's inability to close that has me hesitant to jump on board with them here, even with the line move, especially when nearly 80% of the action has already come their way.


However, the side isn't the only number that's moved on this game as plenty of 'over' action on this contest has pushed the opening number of 44 up to it's current standing. Even with it being the majority play, I fully agree with this move on multiple levels. For one, the Cowboys anaemic offense forced bookmakers to open this number a shade low, and with both franchises in do-or-die mode with suspect defenses behind them, we easily could get a shootout between these two teams.


With playoff aspirations hanging on by a thread, what do either of these teams have to lose by going out and being hyper-aggressive with their playcalling and take plenty of shots down the field? Playing not to lose has cost both of these teams multiple victories this year, and now the margin for error is next to nothing. Neither team really has a running game that they can reliably count on at the moment, and that means the ball will be in both QB's hands to make it happen. Both teams rank basically in the bottom third of the league against the pass this year (Washington is 19th, Dallas is 21st) and with the talent they've each got on the outside, seeing the passing game succeed in this contest should surprise noone.


These two are no strangers to high-scoring games either as each of the past four meetings between the two have cashed 'over' tickets, and the most recent three games in that stretch all closed with totals of 46.5 or higher. Washington is also on a 14-3 O/U run in their last 17 games against an opponent with a losing record, and that includes a 5-0 O/U run on the road when said opponent has a losing record at home.


The Redskins on the whole are on a 20-8 O/U run away from home, and the defense that allowed 10 points to the Giants last week isn't one that typically backs up a strong performance with another one.: The Redskins are 6-1 O/U after allowing 14 or less points in their last game.


The Cowboys recent scoring drought may be cause for concern to some, but it's only a matter of time before QB Dak Prescott and this attack find their groove again (at least through the air). Maybe it takes the added pressure of having their season on the line to kickstart that momentum, but I'm sure a division rivalry game in primetime doesn't hurt the idea of them getting amped up as well.


Chances are this total will continue to climb as we get closer to kickoff, but at 45.5 the number is still a little too low here and I'll be joining the early masses here in expecting this game to sail past that number.



Best Bet: Over (45.5)

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel


Week 13


Thursday, November 30

Washington @ Dallas


Game 301-302
November 30, 2017 @ 8:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Washington
133.989
Dallas
130.408
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 3 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 1
45
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-1); Over




Sunday, December 3

Detroit @ Baltimore


Game 351-352
December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
134.439
Baltimore
138.931
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 4 1/2
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 2 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-2 1/2); Under


San Francisco @ Chicago


Game 353-354
December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
126.846
Chicago
125.498
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 1 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 3 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+3 1/2); Under


Minnesota @ Atlanta


Game 355-356
December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
141.105
Atlanta
139.639
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 1 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 3
47
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+3); Over


New England @ Buffalo


Game 357-358
December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
New England
141.266
Buffalo
131.259
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 10
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 8
49
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-8); Under


Denver @ Miami


Game 359-360
December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Denver
124.209
Miami
121.052
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 3
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 1 1/2
39
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-1 1/2); Over


Houston @ Tennessee


Game 361-362
December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Houston
130.758
Tennessee
135.600
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 10
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 6 1/2
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-6 1/2); Over


Indianapolis @ Jacksonville


Game 363-364
December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
124.501
Jacksonville
136.905
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 12 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 9
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(-9); Under


Tampa Bay @ Green Bay


Game 365-366
December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
131.948
Green Bay
127.342
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 4 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1
44
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-1); Over


Kansas City @ NY Jets


Game 367-368
December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
132.342
NY Jets
126.948
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 5 1/2
32
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-3); Under


Carolina @ New Orleans


Game 369-370
December 3, 2017 @ 4:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
135.258
New Orleans
143.936
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 8 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 4
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-4); Over


Cleveland @ LA Chargers


Game 371-372
December 3, 2017 @ 4:05 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
120.382
LA Chargers
141 201
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 21
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 14
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(-14); Under


LA Rams @ Arizona


Game 373-374
December 3, 2017 @ 4:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
141.321
Arizona
130.433
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 11
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 7
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(-7); Over


NY Giants @ Oakland


Game 375-376
December 3, 2017 @ 4:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
120.334
Oakland
133.811
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 12 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 8 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-8 1/2); Under


Philadelphia @ Seattle


Game 377-378
December 3, 2017 @ 8:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
146.774
Seattle
136.528
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 10
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 5 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-5 1/2); Under




Monday, December 4

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati


Game 379-380
December 4, 2017 @ 8:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
138.280
Cincinnati
130.072
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 8
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 5
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-5); Under

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 13


Thursday's game
Redskins (5-6) @ Cowboys (5-6)— Washington is 5-0 when they allow 24 or less points, 0-6 when they allow more. Cowboys are in freefall, losing last three games by combined score of 92-22, 72-6 in 2nd half. Dallas was outsacked 14-1 in last three games, with -7 turnover rate (1-8). Cowboys lost four of last five home games. Redskins lost four of last six games, are 2-3 on road, 3-2 vs spread as road underdog. Dallas (-2) beat Redskins 33-19 in first meeting in Week 8, outrushing Washington 169-49, with +2 turnover ratio. Cowboys won seven of last nine series games, but Redskins won three of last five visits here. Over is 5-2 in last seven Redskin games, 0-4 in Cowboys’ last four. Favorites are 5-1 vs spread in NFC East divisional games.


Sunday's games
Lions (6-5) @ Ravens (6-5)— Ravens are +17 in turnovers in their wins, -6 in their losses. Out of Baltimore’s six wins, five were against either backup QB’s or DeShone Kizer; Dalton is only decent QB they’ve beaten. Ravens are 3-2 at home, 2-1-1 as home favorites- they won three of last four games, allowing 75 or less rushing yards in last three games. Detroit won three of last four games; they’re 4-1 on road, with only loss 52-38 in Superdome when their offense gave up three TD’s. Home side won three of four series games; Lions lost both visits here, 19-10/48-3- their last visit here was in ’09. Over is 6-1 in last seven games for both teams. Lions have edge in rest/prep time; they played last Thursday, Ravens played on Monday. Detroit is 3-0 in outdoor games this season.


49ers (1-10) @ Bears (3-8)— Niners’ QB Beathard got hurt LW; this could be Garoppolo’s first start for the 49ers- he won his only two NFL starts LY for the Patriots. Chicago lost its last four games, scoring 13.8 ppg; Bears are 2-4 at home- two of their three wins were in OT, in the third one Chicago’s only two TD’s were scored by the defense. 49ers are 1-4 vs spread in their last five games; they’re 3-2 vs spread on road, with losses by 3-3-3-2-23 points. Teams split last six meetings; 49ers lost 26-6 here LY, after winning in OT year before. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 5-2 vs spread; NFC West road underdogs are 3-7. Under is 7-4 in Chicago games, 3-1 in 49ers’ last three games. This is 49ers’ first road game since Oct 29.


Vikings (9-2) @ Falcons (7-4)— Falcons were held to 17 or less points in their losses- they scored 23+ in all their wins. Atlanta won/covered its last three games; they’re 3-2 as home favorites this years, with wins by 11-20-14 points and losses to Bills/Miami. Vikings won their last seven games, covered their last six; they’re 3-1 in true road games, with only loss at Pittsburgh. Minnesota won last two meetings 41-28/20-10, last of which was in 2015; they’re 5-2 in last seven visits to Atlanta. NFC south non-divisional home favorites are 5-8 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs are 5-5. Four of last five Viking games went over total; under is 6-2 in last eight Falcon games. Minnesota had extra prep time, since they played on Thanksgiving Day.


Patriots (9-2) @ Bills (6-5)— New England won its last seven games, covered last five; they’re 4-0 in true road games, 3-1 as road favorite, winning by 16-5-7-24 points. Patriots have started 14 drives in enemy territory this year, their opponents only one. Bills lost three of last four games; they’re +13 in turnovers in their wins, -7 in losses. Return of Taylor at QB righted ship in KC last week. Buffalo won twice in last five series games, after a 1-21 series skid; Patriots won last five visits to Orchard Park, scoring 38.4 ppg in wins by 24-2-15-8-16 points. Home teams are 5-0-1 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season. Five of last six Buffalo games went over total; five of last seven New England games stayed under.


Broncos (3-8) @ Dolphins (4-7)— Denver coach Joseph was Miami’s DC last year. Adam Gase was in Denver for 6 years (2009-14), last two as OC. Denver lost its last seven games (0-7 vs spread); they’re back to Siemian at QB after Lynch got hurt LW. Broncos are 0-5 on road, 0-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 10-21-10-28-7 points. Dolphins lost their last four games (0-3-1 vs spread); Miami is 2-2 at home, 1-1-1 as a home favorite, winning home tilts by 6-3 points, with losses to Bucs/Raiders/ Denver won last two series games, 18-15(ot)/39-36; the OT win in 2011 was Broncos’ only win in seven visits to Miami. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 3-4-1 vs spread; AFC West road underdogs are 4-4. Former Bronco Cutler is back at QB for Miami.


Texans (4-7) @ Titans (7-4)— Short week for Texans after loss in Baltimore Monday nite; they pounded Tennessee 57-14 (+2.5) back in Week 4, when rookie QB Watson rang up six TD drives and 445 yards. Houston is 1-4 in Savage starts, scoring 10.6 ppg; they’re 1-4 on road, 3-1-1 as a road underdog, losing away games by 3-3-26-7 points. Tennessee won five of its last six games, with last four wins all by 4 or less points. Titans are 2-2-1 vs spread as home favorites. Houston is 9-2 in last 11 series games; they split last four series here. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season. Three of last four Titan games went over total, as have seven of last nine Houston games.


Colts (3-8) @ Jaguars (7-4)— Indy lost five of last six games; they’re 2-3 as road underdogs, with road losses by 37-28-1-14 points, with win at Watson-less Houston. Jaguars had 4-game win streak snapped in Arizona LW; Jags are 3-2 at home, 1-2 as home favorites, winning home tilts by 37-16-3 points, with losses to Titans/Rams. Colts (+3) got blanked 27-0 at home by Jaguars in Week 7; Jax ran ball for 188 yards, were +2 in turnovers. Jaguars won three of last four series games, winning 51-16 in last meeting here two years ago. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season. Four of last five games for both teams stayed under total. In their last seven games, Jaguars outscored opponents 87-30 in second half.


Buccaneers (4-7) @ Packers (5-6)— Winston figures to return to lineup for Bucs team that lost six of last seven games, outscored 96-25 in first half of those games. Tampa Bay lost its last five road games, is 1-2-1 as road underdogs. Packers lost five of last six games, losing last three home tilts. Green Bay had three TD plays of 20+ yards LW; they had three all year before that. Packers are 2-1 as home favorites. Green Bay won last two series games, 35-26/10-3; last meeting was in ’14. Bucs are 1-14 in their last 15 visits to Wisconsin, last of which was in ’11. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 5-2 this season; NFC South underdogs are 4-5-1 vs spread, 3-3-1 on road. Over is 3-1 in last four Tampa games; under is 3-1 in last four Green Bay games.


Chiefs (6-5) @ Jets (4-7)— Kansas City lost five of last six games after a 5-0 start; they’re back in Swamp Stadium for 2nd time in three weeks, after losing in OT to Giants two weeks ago. Chiefs lost last three road games- they’ve scored one TD on 23 drives in two games since their bye. Jets also lost five of last six games; they’re 3-3 at home (4-2 vs spread)- they were underdog in all six home games. KC won 24-10/24-3 in last two series games; they lost last two games against Jets here, with last visit to play Jets in 2011. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-10-1 vs spread, 2-3-1 on road; AFC East underdogs are 8-8-1, 2-3-1 at home. Chiefs’ last three games stayed under total. Chiefs scored only 32 points in their last nine red zone drives.


Panthers (8-3) @ Saints (8-3)— Carolina won/covered its last four games, coring 80 points in last two games; Panthers are 3-0 on artificial turf this year, scoring 33-27-35 points. Carolina is 3-0 as a road underdog this year. New Orleans had 8-game win streak snapped LW; they’re 2-2 as home favorites this year, with home wins by 14-8-20-3 points, and loss to Patriots. Saints (+6) waxed Carolina 34-13 in Charlotte in Week 3; they were +3 in turnovers, won field position by 13 yards. Panthers won four of last six series games, are 3-2 in last five visits to Superdome. NFC South divisional home favorites are 3-2 this year; NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 14-12-2 vs spread. Under is 6-3 in last nine New Orleans games.


Browns (0-11) @ Chargers (5-6)— Cleveland is 1-26 the last two years; the one win was 20-17 over the Chargers on Lake Erie last Christmas Eve. Browns are first NFL team since ’76-’77 Bucs to start consecutive seasons 0-11. Cleveland gets WR Gordon back for first time since late 2014 here; he is an explosive threat. Chargers won five of last six games (6-1 vs spread); they’re 1-1 as home favorites, with home wins by 21-30 points, and losses to Miami-Chiefs-Eagles. LA had extra prep time after Turkey Day win in Dallas- they’re 16-28 on 3rd down in last two games. Browns won two of last three series games; teams split last six meetings played here. AFC West divisional home favorites are 4-7 vs spread; AFC North road underdogs are 5-4-1.


Rams (8-3) @ Cardinals (5-6)— Trap game for LA after playing Vikings/Saints last two weeks, with Eagles/Seahawks on deck. Rams won five of last six games; they’re 4-1 on road, with only loss 24-7 at Minnesota. LA is 5-3 vs spread as a favorite this year. Arizona is 3-2 at home, losing by 11-6 points to Dallas/Seattle; they’re 2-1-1 as home underdogs. Rams haven’t swept Cardinals since 2012- they won last two visits here, 24-22/17-13. LA (-3) pounded Arizona 33-0 in London in Week 7, outrushing Redbirds 197-25 in game where Palmer got hurt and was 23-0 at half. Road teams are 5-1-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games this year. Under is 7-3 in last ten Cardinal games, 4-1 in Rams’ last five games.


Giants (2-9) @ Raiders (5-6)— Giants are starting Smith at QB, ending Manning’s 210-game starting streak, 2nd week in row Oakland faces a backup QB. Smith is 12-18 as an NFL starter; he went 8-8 in ’13, is 4-10 since. Big Blue is 3-2 as a road underdog; they’ve lost road games by 16-3-2-10-10 points. Oakland will be without top two WR’s Cooper (concussion), Crabtree (suspension) here; they also changed DC’s last week. Raiders are 3-2 at home, 2-2 as home faves, with home wins by 25-1-7 points. Giants won last three games, by 9-37-4 points; they won last visit here 30-21 in 2005, their only win in three trips to Oakland. AFC West divisional home faves are 4-7 vs spread; NFC East road dogs are 8-3. Four of last six Giant games stayed under.


Eagles (10-1) @ Seahawks (7-4)— Philly has huge lead in NFC East; they’ve won last nine games, covered last eight- they ran ball for 196 yds/game the last three games. Eagles are 4-1 on road, with only loss 27-20 in Week 2 at KC. Seahawks are just out of playoff picture; they held last four opponents to 89 or less rushing yards, but also lost last two home games. Seattle won its last three series games, by 17-10-11 points; Eagles’ last win here was in 2008. NFC East non-divisional faves are 7-7 vs spread, 2-2 on road; NFC West dogs are 6-10 vs spread, 3-3 at home. Three of last four Philly games stayed under total; under is 5-2 in last seven Seattle games. Eagles have 10 takeaways in last four games (+6)- their opponents are 24 of last 97 on 3rd down.


Monday's game
Steelers (9-2) @ Bengals (5-6)— Steelers outrushed Cincy 153-71, were +2 in turnovers in 29-14 (-5.5) Week 7 win; Pitt won last five series games and 8 of last 9- they won last four games here, last two by total of six points. Pittsburgh won its last six games (4-2 vs spread); they’re 5-1 on road, allowing 13.5 ppg in last four road games. Bengals are 5-3 in last eight games, covering last three; they won last three home tilts, after losing home games to Ravens/Texans to start season. Cincy is +3 in turnovers in last four games, after being -10 in first seven. Favorites are 5-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this season. Under is 8-3 in Steeler games, 2-4 in Bengals’ last six games. Three of last four Steeler wins were by five or less points.


2017 week-by-week results
HF HU Totals O/U AFC-NFC
1) 5-5 3-2 4-11 1-0N
2) 6-6 2-2 6-9-1 3-2A
3) 1-4 8-2 10-5 3-0N
4) 4-7 2-3 8-7-1 2-2
5) 4-7 1-1 6-8 3-0A
6) 3-8 3-0 8-6 3-1N
7) 5-0-2 3-4 7-8 1-1
8) 5-4 0-4 7-6 3-1N
9) 5-2-1 0-3-1 5-8 2-0N
10) 4-3 3-3-1 8-6 5-0N
11) 4-4 1-5 7-7 2-2


T) 46-50-1 26-29-2 77-80-2 24-13N

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Thursday, November 30


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Washington at Dallas
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Washington at Dallas Cowboys (+2, 45.5)


The Dallas Cowboys are a decidedly different team than the one that coasted to a 33-19 win against Washington last month, especially considering Ezekiel Elliott rolled up a season-high 150 rushing yards and two touchdowns in that outing. With Elliott suspended, the Cowboys' overall offense hasn't been as potent and mustered just 22 points during the team's three-game losing skid heading into Thursday's contest versus visiting Washington.


The Cowboys are averaging a solid 4.4 yards per carry in Elliott's absence, but that's just noise to Alfred Morris as he prepares to face his former team. "You can say (the running game has been good enough), but it doesn't matter," Morris said. "We’re not winning games. We're not putting points on the board, so it doesn't matter if we, in a sense, are doing our part." Washington reached 30 points in back-to-back losses before tightening their defense in a 20-10 win over the sputtering New York Giants on Thanksgiving. Kirk Cousins (NFL second-best 3,038 yards), who tossed a pair of touchdown passes against the Giants, has thrown for 625 passing yards, six TDs and no interceptions in his last two encounters with the Cowboys.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Washington (0) - Dallas (+2.5) + home field (-3) = Dallas -0.5.

LINE HISTORY: Dallas opened as 1.5-point home favorites but on Tuesday afternoon the spread jumped the fence to Washington -1 and continued to move in that direction, now at 2. The total hit betting boards at 44 and has been bumped up to 45.5.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Both teams played on Thanksgiving last week, so a rare situation where both teams have a full week of rest heading into the Thursday night game. Both teams are 5-6 SU and 5-6 ATS, but Dallas is a home underdog based on recent results as the Cowboys are 0-3 SU/ATS in the past three games since losing RB Ezekiel Elliott. Quite a line adjustment for this game considering Dallas was a 3-point road favorite at Washington just one month ago when they won 33-19. That result put the Redskins on a 0-4 ATS slide, but Washington has since gone 3-1 ATS in their past four games following that loss." - Steve Merril.

WEATHER REPORT: Roof if needed - weather will not be a factor.

INJURY REPORT:


Washington - WR Jamison Crowder (Probable, Back), LB Zach Brown (Questionable, Shoulder), G Brandon Scherff (Questionable, Knee), T Ty Nsekhe (Probable, Abdominal), T Morgan Moses (Probable, Ankle), DL Anthony Lanier II (Probable, Knee), DL Matt Ioannidis (Questionable, Hand), T Trent Williams (Probable, Knee), LB Martrell Spaight (Questionable, Ankle), DL Terrell McClain (Out, Toe), S Montae Nicholson (Out, Concussion), TE Jordan Reed (Out, Hamstring), C Chase Roullier (Out, Hand), C Spencer Long (I-R, Hip Flexor), G Shawn Lauvao (I-R, Neck), RB Chris Thompson (I-R, Leg), WR Terrelle Pryor Sr. (I-R, Ankle), T T.J. Clemmings (I-R, Ankle), LB Will Compton (I-R, Foot), RB Rob Kelley (I-R, Ankle), DL Arthur Jones (I-R, Shoulder), LB Mason Foster (I-R, Shoulder), DL Jonathan Allen (Out, Foot), K Dustin Hopkins (I-R, Hip), S Su'a Cravens (I-R, Knee), DL Phil Taylor Sr. (I-R, Quadricep), T Kevin Bowen (I-R, Ankle), LB Trent Murphy (I-R, Knee), RB Keith Marshall (I-R, Knee).


Dallas - LB Anthony Hitchens (Probable, Groin), WR Ryan Switzer (Probable, Ankle), DT Maliek Collins (Probable, Foot), T Tyron Smith (Probable, Back), G Zack Martin (Probable, Concussion), T La'el Collins (Questionable, Back), LB Justin Durant (Out, Concussion), LB Sean Lee (Out, Hamstring), RB Ezekiel Elliott (Elig Week 16, Suspension), DE Randy Gregory (Out For Season, Suspension), TE Rico Gathers (Questionable, Concussion), TE Connor Hamlett (Questionable, Calf), DE Charles Tapper (Questionable, Foot), DT Brian Price (I-R, Knee), CB Duke Thomas (I-R, Knee), QB Zac Dysert (I-R, Back).

ABOUT WASHINGTON (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, 7-4 O/U): While coach Jay Gruden was pleased to see left tackle Trent Williams (knee) participate in practice in a bid to end a one-game absence versus Dallas, the coach doesn't have high hopes for the return of tight end Jordan Reed. "Your guess is as good as mine," Gruden said of a potential return date for Reed, who has missed each of the last four games with a hamstring injury. "Obviously there is an issue there, otherwise I would like to think he would be further along now. But we just have to get him healthy." Rookie running back Samaje Perine has looked healthy with 217 rushing yards in his last two contests, and a season-best 130 scrimmage yards (100 rushing, 30 receiving) last week.

ABOUT DALLAS (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, 5-6 O/U): Dak Prescott and the Dallas passing game have taken a hit with the threat of Elliott removed from the offense. "It's frustrating, simple as that. But what it does is it makes being on top fun," said Prescott, who tossed five interceptions in his last two games to eclipse his total of four during his rookie season in 2016. "That's what it's all about is getting out of these whatever you call them, ruts, or whatever they are and getting back to our expectations, our standards." Wideout Dez Bryant has struggled to get untracked without Elliott, failing to crack 40 yards receiving in two of the last three games.

TRENDS:


* Washington is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
* Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
* Over is 14-3 in Washington's last 17 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games overall.
* Washington is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Dallas.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with Washington on the road at a rate of 64 percent and the Over is getting 73 percent of the totals action

 

[CNOTES]

NFL double-digit favorites a good bet in the final five weeks of the season
Ashton Grewal


NFL favorites are 45-20-4 against the spread in the last 30 days – a clip so high that even Charles Barkley and Michael Jordan couldn’t have lost money betting pro football in the last month.


Sportsbook managers aren’t having the best November, as senior writer Patrick Everson detailed, but the chalk won’t walk at a 69 percent clip over the last five weeks of the NFL season. Bettors will have to dig a little deeper to find ways to beat their bookies.


Looking at double-digit spreads is a good place to start. Double-digit favorites went 3-1 ATS last weekend with the New England Patriots putting down the Miami Dolphins by 18 points, the Philadelphia Eagles burying the Chicago Bears by four touchdowns, the Atlanta Falcons tearing up the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points and the Pittsburgh Steelers inching past the Green Bay Packers.


This could be a preview of what’s to come until the start of the postseason. We looked back over the last six years and found teams favored by 10 or more points are 38-29-1 ATS from Week 13 to Week 17. Even better, home teams are 41-26-1 ATS in games with double-digit spreads over the same time period.


Just last season, all six home teams in games with 10-point or larger spreads went 6-0 ATS while favorites went 5-1. There’s only one double-digit spread on the board this weekend (Chargers -13.5 vs. Browns) but there should be quite a few in the weeks to follow as teams punt on the season and start taking a look at their backup players to see which are worth holding onto for next season.


Here are some games to keep an eye on for potential double-digit spreads in Weeks 14 - 17:


Week 14


New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins


The Pats just covered as 17-point home favorites against the Phins last weekend. Barring an injury to Tom Brady or a brain tumor for Bill Belichick, New England will be large favorites at Miami.


Week 15


Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions


The Lions won’t be confused for world beaters, but the Bears’ offense is so putrid it’s hard not seeing them getting at least 10 points in this divisional game.


Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants


The Giants are already planning for the future that probably doesn’t include Eli Manning as their starting quarterback. This could be another huge line if Geno Smith is still at QB for the G-Men and the Eagles are still playing for the top overall seed in the NFC.


New York Jets at New Orleans Saints


Gang Green has been a double-digit underdog just once this season and that was all the way back in Week 2 against the Raiders. That seems like a long, long time ago. Despite the Saints’ setback against the Rams, bettors still love backing Drew Brees and the boys from the Bayou.


Week 16


Oakland Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles


The Raiders are a mess. Head coach Jack Del Rio is presently prepping index cards with the names of his assistant coaches and assorting them by the likelihood who will be his next scapegoat to save his job.


Week 17


New York Jets at New England Patriots


It’s safe to assume Brady will be playing in Week 17 because he did last season when the Pats had the first seed already sewn up.


Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers


Will the Browns still be winless on the last weekend of the season? Would the Steelers put the squeeze on their division rival in a meaningless game for them or would they protect Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell from injury?


Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings


The Vikes have won a lot of games this season but have been double-digit faves just once – and that was against… you guessed it… the Browns. Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer hates losing preseason games, so it’s safe to assume he wouldn’t take his foot off the gas pedal even if there was nothing to play for in Week 17 for his team.

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 30
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


WAS at DAL 08:25 PM


WAS -1.5


U 47.0

 

[CNOTES]

Redskins pretty much out of playoffs after loss to Cowboys
December 1, 2017


ARLINGTON, Texas (AP) One thing the Washington Redskins almost certainly won't have to worry about this year is a must-win game in the season finale to make the playoffs.


The Redskins pretty much took themselves out of the postseason picture before the calendar even turned to December, which happened soon after their 38-14 loss Thursday night to the Dallas Cowboys still without suspended running back Ezekiel Elliott.


''Right now, it looks as if we are not going to make the playoffs,'' tight end Vernon Davis said. ''So I think at this point, we just have to continue to keep competing, keep playing and keep playing for one another. ... You can't give up.''


The Redskins (5-7), who had already been eliminated from NFC East contention, dropped behind Dallas (6-6) in the division standings. The Cowboys also swept the season series, though between those two games, they were overwhelmed in three straight losses without Elliott.


Philadelphia can wrap up the division title with a win in any of its last five games. The Eagles play Sunday night at Seattle.


Alfred Morris, Elliott's replacement during the six-game suspension for alleged domestic violence, had 127 yards rushing and a clinching touchdown against his former team.


''Really has an uncanny knack of seeing the soft spot, and you saw it here tonight,'' Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said.


Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins was consistently harassed behind a patchwork offensive line that had to shuffle some more because of injuries. Cousins was 26 of 37 for 251 yards and two touchdowns, but threw two interceptions and lost a fumble.


Cousins said Washington still thinks it has something to play for.


''It's our job, it's important to us,'' said Cousins, who was sacked four times . ''We'll be professional every day and finish the season strong, put a good taste in our mouth.''


Last season, all the Redskins had to do to make the playoffs was win at home in Week 17 against a playoff-bound Giants team with nothing to play for. The game was tied before New York scored nine points in the final 2:12.


Dak Prescott was getting X-rays on his swollen right hand when rookie Ryan Switzer scored his first career touchdown on an 83-yard punt return that put the Cowboys up 17-0. The extra time with the Dallas offense on the sideline kept Prescott from missing any plays.


Prescott, hit just as he made an option pitch, threw two TD passes. The first was to tight end Jason Witten, the team's career receiving leader, and the second was a leaping 13-yard grab by Dez Bryant, whose 72nd career TD catch broke a tie with Hall of Famer Bob Hayes for the most in franchise history.


And Prescott didn't have a turnover after throwing five interceptions and losing three fumbles without a touchdown pass during the three-game losing streak. He said the X-rays were negative.


''It was tough,'' Prescott said. ''It was great to get a win.''


And keep the Cowboys' dwindling playoff hopes alive.

SHUTDOWN TIME?


Even with the playoffs just about out of reach, Redskins left tackle Trent Williams isn't sure he wants to shut it down for the season after being active for the third time in six games with a knee injury that will require surgery. The five-time Pro Bowler left briefly in the third quarter but returned.


''I feel like there's some merits to sticking and trying to finish the season,'' Williams said. ''I fought through it this long. Hopefully I can get another four games out of it.''


The Redskins had to do more shuffling to their decimated front when right tackle Morgan Moses was carted off with a sprained ankle. Ty Nsekhe had moved to left guard to start the game but had to go back to tackle, where he's been a backup. Who knows what the line will look like the rest of what appears to be a lost season.


''We're not the only one dealing with it,'' Williams said. ''We may have the most. But a lot of teams lose pivotal players during the season.''


QUALITY YARDS


The Cowboys had fewer than 300 yards total offense for the fourth straight game, the longest such streak since the final four games of former coach Dave Campo's tenure in 2002. But it didn't matter this time because they were efficient. Prescott had two touchdowns despite throwing for just 102 yards. And Morris had his first 100-yard showing since final game with the Redskins in 2015, against the Cowboys. ''I thought Dak did a really good job of making timely throws,'' coach Jason Garrett said.

CROWDER MISCUES


Jamison Crowder's fumble on the punt return was his sixth fumble of the season and third lost fumble. Coach Jay Gruden has hinted several times at replacing Crowder on punt returns because of the fumbles, but the other option is Maurice Harris, who left the game to be evaluated for a concussion. ''We don't have anyone else to return a punt.''

 

[CNOTES]

Pick Six - Week 13
November 30, 2017


Week 12 Record: 1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS
Overall Record: 35-37 SU, 31-38-1 ATS


Lions at Ravens (-3, 43) – 1:00 PM EST


Detroit
Record: 6-5 SU, 5-5-1 ATS, 8-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1


The Lions had their three-game winning streak come to a halt in a 30-23 Thanksgiving home loss to the Vikings. Detroit had an opportunity to pull off the season sweep of Minnesota and creep within one game of the Vikings for first place in the NFC North, but the Lions couldn’t overcome an early 20-3 deficit. The Lions have cashed the OVER in six of the past seven games, including three straight away from Ford Field. Detroit has performed well on the highway by winning four of five on the road, while eclipsing the 24-point mark four times.


Baltimore
Record: 6-5 SU, 5-5-1 ATS, 6-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1


The Ravens aren’t going away in the AFC Wild Card race after holding off the Texans last Monday, 23-16. Baltimore’s offense isn’t impressing anyone (23 points or less four of the past five games), but the Ravens have allowed one touchdown or less in three of the previous four contests. The last time the Ravens and Lions hooked up at Ford Field in 2013, kicker Justin Tucker booted six field goals as Baltimore edged Detroit, 18-16, including the 61-yard game-winner in the final minute.


Best Bet: Lions +3


Vikings at Falcons (-3, 47) – 1:00 PM EST


Minnesota
Record: 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS, 6-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1


The Vikings are continuing their push towards the top of the NFC after pulling out their seventh consecutive victory on Thanksgiving at Detroit. Minnesota has covered in each of the past six wins, including five straight as a favorite, as the Vikings own a 1-1 SU/ATS record in the underdog role this season. Not only the defense been great for Minnesota this season, but the offense continues to churn out points by posting at least 30 points in three of the past four games, all away from U.S. Bank Stadium.


Atlanta
Record: 7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS, 6-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1


The Falcons have gone through many ups and downs this season, starting 3-0, dropping four of five, but are trending up of late by winning three straight games. Atlanta’s offense, which disappeared during its losing stretch, has come back to life by posting 27, 34, and 34 points the last three weeks. The Falcons pulled away from the Buccaneers late last Sunday, 34-20 to cash as 10 ½-point favorites, while improving to 6-1 against NFC opponents.


Best Bet: Falcons -3


Texans at Titans (-6 ½, 43) – 1:00 PM EST


Houston
Record: 4-7 SU, 7-4 ATS, 6-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 250/1


Houston’s season fell apart when Deshaun Watson suffered a torn ACL in practice in early November. The Texans have lost three of four since a 41-38 setback at Seattle when Watson threw for 402 yards and four touchdowns. Houston has dropped four consecutive road games since beating Cincinnati in Week 2, but the Texans improved to 4-1 ATS on the highway following last Monday’s 23-16 defeat as 7 ½-point underdogs. The Texans destroyed the Titans in their first meeting, 57-14 as 2 ½-point underdogs in Week 4, the sixth win in the last seven meetings by Houston.


Tennessee
Record: 7-4 SU, 4-6-1 ATS, 7-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1


The Titans are back in a first place tie atop the AFC South with the Jaguars after Tennessee rallied past Indianapolis, 20-16 last Sunday to cash as three-point road favorites. Tennessee has won five of its previous six games, although the Titans have covered only twice in this span. The Titans have had several close shaves during this recent run with margin of victories coming by 3, 3, 4, and 4. Since finished UNDER the total in Week 1 against Oakland, the Titans are 4-0 to the OVER in their past four games at Nissan Stadium.


Best Bet: Texans +6 ½


Patriots (-8 ½, 48 ½) at Bills – 1:00 PM EST


New England
Record: 9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS, 6-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 5/2


The Patriots’ train kept rolling in a 35-17 blowout of the Dolphins last Sunday to barely cash as 17-point home favorites. New England extended its winning streak to seven games, while covering six times in this span. This division rivalry has been owned by New England over the years as the Patriots have compiled an impressive 17-3 SU and 11-7-2 ATS record against the Bills since 2007. The Patriots have won in their last five visits to Buffalo, while scoring at least 37 points in four of those victories.


Buffalo
Record: 6-5 SU, 6-4-1 ATS, 6-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1


The Bills rebounded from a 30-point setback to the Chargers by knocking off the Chiefs last Sunday as 8 ½-point road underdogs, 16-10. For this time since Week 1, Buffalo outgained its opponent from a yardage standpoint, while putting an end to a five-game OVER streak and three-game losing skid. The Bills began the season with four consecutive home wins before getting routed by the Saints in Week 10 by 37 points.


Best Bet: Patriots -8 ½


Panthers at Saints (-4 ½, 48) – 4:25 PM EST


Carolina
Record: 8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS, 6-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1


The Panthers rebounded from an ugly loss at Chicago in mid-October to run off four straight victories to pull into a first place tie with the Saints atop the NFC South. Carolina held off the Jets last Sunday, 35-27 to cash as 5 ½-point favorites, while finishing off a 4-0 sweep of the AFC East. A low scoring game through three quarters blew up in the final 15 minutes as the teams combined for 27 points, including a pair of non-offensive touchdowns for Carolina. The Panthers own a dreadful 0-5 ATS record in the past five meetings with the Saints, including a 34-13 home blowout to New Orleans as five-point favorites in Week 3.


New Orleans
Record: 8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS, 6-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1


The Saints had their eight-game winning streak end against the Rams last Sunday in a 26-20 defeat as 2 ½-point underdogs. Rookie running back Alvin Kamara produced both touchdowns for New Orleans to go along with 188 all-purpose yards, but dropped its first game away from the Superdome since Week 1 at Minnesota. New Orleans covered in its first seven contests of the season before failing to cash in an overtime victory against Washington in Week 11. Each of the past two meetings at the Superdome have been decided by exact 41-38 scores as New Orleans won last season and Carolina was victorious in 2015.


Best Bet: Carolina +4 ½


Rams (-7, 45) at Cardinals – 4:25 PM EST


Los Angeles
Record: 8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS, 6-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1


The Rams rebounded following a 17-point defeat at Minnesota in Week 11 as Los Angeles held off New Orleans, 26-20 to win its fifth game in its past six tries. L.A. seeks the season sweep of Arizona after blanking the Cardinals in London, 33-0 in Week 7 to easily cover as three-point favorites. Running back Todd Gurley rushed for 106 yards and a touchdown, while the Rams held the ball for 39 minutes. The Rams have won four of five games away from the Coliseum this season, while scoring at least 35 points in three of those victories.


Arizona
Record: 5-6 SU, 3-7-1 ATS, 7-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1


The Cardinals snapped a two-game skid in a 27-24 home underdog victory over the Jaguars last Sunday. Arizona has yet to win consecutive games this season, while compiling an 0-3-1 ATS record off a victory. The Cardinals are 2-1-1 ATS as a home underdog, but have lost each of their last two meetings at home with the Rams by a combined six points. Three of Arizona’s five wins are by three points apiece, while the Cardinals have not covered in a loss this season and are 0-18 ATS in their last 18 losses.

Best Bet: Rams -7

 

[CNOTES]

NFL notebook: Kaepernick wins Ali Legacy Award
November 30, 2017


Football player Colin Kaepernick was announced Thursday as the 2017 recipient of the Sports Illustrated Muhammad Ali Legacy Award.


The Legacy Award is given to sports figures who use their platform to initiate change.


Kaepernick hasn't been affiliated with an NFL team this season, likely related to his stance of kneeling for the national anthem for much of the 2016 season. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has insisted on several occasions that the 30-year-old Kaepernick isn't being blackballed.


Regardless, Kaepernick's protest to draw attention to police brutality and social justice issues created change, and protests during the anthem picked up this season after players were criticized by President Donald Trump. Kaepernick also has donated upwards of $1 million to charities.


"The Muhammad Ali Legacy Award is given to those who make the world a better place," Sports Illustrated executive editor Steve Cannella told USA TODAY Sports. "The fact Colin hasn't played this year or been on the field doesn't disqualify him.


"That fact that he hasn't played in a game actually shows what he has sacrificed for standing up for what he believes. There will never be another Muhammad Ali, but you can see the echoes of (Ali) in what Colin has done over the last 12 to 15 months."

--Cleveland Browns safety Jabrill Peppers was fined $24,000 by the NFL for an illegal hit on Cincinnati Bengals receiver Josh Malone.


The play occurred last Sunday, and Peppers was assessed a personal foul for the hit that prevented Malone from making a catch.


Peppers said he will appeal the fine, and doesn't understand what he did wrong.


--The Oakland Raiders may be without their top two wide receivers for Sunday's game against the visiting New York Giants.


Amari Cooper remained off the field while media members were allowed to watch Thursday's practice. The 23-year-old currently is in the league's concussion protocol and also is battling an ankle issue.


Cooper departed Sunday's game after taking a shot to the head from Broncos safety Darian Stewart. Definitely out is Michael Crabtree, who is set to serve a one-game suspension for last Sunday's fight with Denver Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib.

--Los Angeles Chargers cornerback Casey Hayward left the team to be with his family after his brother, Jecaives, was killed in a car accident.


Jecaives Hayward was killed Monday night in Macon, Ga., when he was ejected from a car in which he was a passenger. Casey Hayward's availability for the Chargers (5-6) in Sunday's game against the Cleveland Browns (0-11) is uncertain.


Hayward, who was named the AFC's Defensive Player of the Month on Thursday, has 30 tackles and four interceptions in 11 games this season.

--Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston is confident he will not be punished by the NFL after its investigation into an allegation that he groped a female Uber driver in March 2016.


"I have no fear at all, but I have to respect their process," Winston said. "I'm just going to respect the process, most importantly. That's all I can do."


Winston denied the allegations after they surfaced in a BuzzFeed report. The Uber driver told BuzzFeed that she picked up Winston in Scottsdale, Ariz., around 2 a.m. local time on March 13, 2016. The driver alleged Winston "behaved poorly" as soon as he got in the car, and then asked her to stop at a drive-thru restaurant during the ride.


While in line, the driver said Winston reached over and "grabbed" her crotch for three to five seconds.

--Quarterback Case Keenum led the Minnesota Vikings to three straight wins in November en route to being named the NFC Offensive Player of the Month, the NFL announced.


The honor is the first for Keenum, who had eight touchdowns (seven passing, one rushing) in that stretch as the Vikings (9-2) strengthened their hold on first place in the NFC North. New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Month after throwing for 833 yards with 10 touchdowns en route to leading his team to win all three of its games.


Los Angeles Chargers cornerback Casey Hayward had three interceptions to be named AFC Defensive Player of the Month, and New Orleans Saints defensive end Cam Jordan received the NFC honor after collecting three sacks. Baltimore Ravens kicker Justin Tucker made all six field-goal attempts and eight extra-point tries to win AFC Special Teams Player of the Month honors, and Los Angeles Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein went 12 of 12 on field goals and 11 of 12 on PATs to win the NFC honor.

 

[CNOTES]

'Dogs to Watch - Week 13
December 1, 2017


A disturbing trend has been apparent through the last few weeks of NFL betting, and that’s that the favorites have been ruling the house. The problem comes in believing that the football season will just play out the way it’s supposed to.


We just turned the corner in to December where all hell usually breaks loose. Eventually this season has to go back to being what it was initially – absolutely bonkers and unpredictable. That starts in Week 13 with these five underdog plays.

Miami Dolphins +1.5 over Denver Broncos
Think I’m crazy? Well I’m not alone. Nearly two-thirds of the betting public believes that Miami is a better bet than the Denver Broncos. Miami has been shellacked by bad teams, but none of them come worse than Denver right now. And there’s a weird thing with Miami late in the season. Teams aren’t used to the heat in South Beach and play like it, so an opponent descending from the frigid Rocky Mountains is going to have problems.


Denver is also a known problem for bettors in December. They’re just 1-4 ATS when playing late in the year, and 0-7 ATS when playing on the road and 0-4 ATS when playing losing teams. Nothing suggests a play on Denver aside from the presence of Von Miller. Also, this is a Jay Cutler revenge game!

San Francisco 49ers +3.0 over Chicago Bears
I’m betting on Jimmy and against Mitch. That’s the beginning and end of this entire game. The Niners are a totally fine football team as they’re built, and Chicago has been a frustrating wasteland. The one thing propping up a Bears play is that they’re 4-1 ATS at Soldier Field, but that’s not enough to invigorate a wager on the considering that they’re 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in the last month of football.

Minnesota Vikings +3.0 over Atlanta Falcons
There’s no way you should be backing off the Vikings after a 7-0 SU winning streak that’s produced a 6-1 ATS record. None. They handled the Lions, Rams and Redskins to become one of the best teams in the NFC without debate. Atlanta is a fine team who are riding high after dismantling the putrid Bucs, but they’re being oversold for their win against a Seattle team that is barely standing on two feet due to injuries. There’s no possible way you should trust Atlanta against top flight competition.


Detroit Lions +3.0 over Baltimore Ravens
Strange invitation here by the oddsmakers to bet against Joe Flacco. Are we really supposed to believe that Baltimore is riding a hot streak against a disheveled Green Bay roster and a Houston team that couldn’t step out of the house without tripping on the doormat in Weeks 11 and 12? C’mon, guys.


There is no chance that you should believe in Baltimore. They’re a totally even 6-5 SU and 5-5-1 ATS on the year. They are traditionally a strong home play, and are one of the best on their own grounds in the league historically. But living in the now, there’s no doubt that Detroit is a much better pick here.


For their part, the Lions are a cool 3-1-1 ATS when travelling and you can’t blame them for losing to Minnesota by just seven points. The most difficult part about the Lions is that the oddsmakers seem to have them dead to rights. They’re just 3-3 ATS when standing as the dog. But I’ll take Matt Stafford over Joe Flacco every day of the week…especially on Sunday. The Ravens have taken advantage of inept opponents over their last two games. Detroit is capable and deserving of your backing.

Carolina Panthers +4.5 over New Orleans Saints
As it turns out the other three afternoon games in Week 13 are expected to be complete blowouts. That’s what happens when you have the Chargers hosting Cleveland, the Rams visiting Arizona and Geno Smith starting a game for the Giants. But this game is a toss up and the line unfairly suggests otherwise.


The natural sentiment when betting on the Saints is to lean on them when they play at home. They’re 3-2 ATS when hosting, which is fine. But Carolina is 5-1 ATS on the road this year and in my mind that offsets the value of the Saints under their own roof.


Where the Panthers are getting hit hard is their schedule where they’ve manhandled the Dolphins and Jets in the last two games while also beating up on Atlanta and Tampa Bay. The most important thing to remember here is that Carolina is one-hundred percent comfortable in a dogfight. And their ability to limit big plays is a big factor here. They have the type of running game that has frustrated New Orleans this season. Physical rushing attacks have somewhat befuddled the Saints and we saw this the first time they played when Carolina destroyed the Drew Brees 34-13.


Not many teams play the brand of football that Carolina is able to thrive in. They love ugly. New Orleans was tested mightily by Todd Gurley and the conservative Rams offence, and they failed to produce a win or a cover. If we’re working off what we know in this season, then the Panthers are the perfect foil for a Saints team that has taken advantage of a relatively beatable schedule.


My recommendation would be to play this game after you’ve seen what you’ve accomplished in the early games. Reaping mad profits? Then go bananas. Looking to play catch-up? Then take the other afternoon games. If a splash is what you need to recover, then this is that game. This line has already moved a whole point. Take advantage of the public’s hatred of Cam Newton here. This is a game that the Saints are not designed to win.

 

[CNOTES]

ON FOOTBALL: Big games ahead through Christmas in NFL
December 1, 2017


The accepted mantra throughout the NFL that stretches to its fandom is that each game in the schedule is equally important.


Then we get to late November and all of December and forget that bromide.


It's happening again, and there's nothing wrong with it.


Think about how huge Kansas City's stunning win at New England to kick off the season seemed to be. Doesn't look so momentous right now with the Chiefs nose-diving in the AFC West while the Patriots do their usual tsunami over the AFC East.


The league and many of the pundits who follow it couldn't find enough hyperbole for the first Sunday nighter, the Giants at Dallas.


Well, the Giants are in range for a top-three draft choice - and just benched Eli Manning, if you can imagine - and the Cowboys are plummeting out of contention.


So while there are games throughout September and October, it's not until Thanksgiving hits that we can truly define what the BIG games are.


And beginning last week, they've arrived.


The Vikings are involved in a bunch of them, even though coach Mike Zimmer keeps espousing the company line.


''Go out and win as many games as you can and try to get in (the playoffs) and play as many games as you can at home,'' Zimmer says. ''But we have to win and we have to take one game at a time. Talking about it doesn't do anything.''


Actually, talking about it is all kinds of fun. So here are the games that should really matter and are worth getting excited about through Christmas.


WEEK 13


Carolina at New Orleans; Minnesota at Atlanta; Philadelphia at Seattle; Detroit at Baltimore.


Mostly NFC matchups; the conference has been the far more interesting, with a slew of top teams as opposed to the top-heavy AFC (New England, Pittsburgh).


The NFC South, clearly the best division in football, gets the spotlight in the Big Easy and the ATL. The Panthers-Saints game is for the lead in that sector and matches a pair of squads showing the kind of balance that works deep into January. For once, this isn't just about Cam Newton and Drew Brees, but about the running games and the defenses.


''We know what is at stake,'' Panthers cornerback Captain Munnerlyn says. ''We took it personal last time because they beat us in our house. We have a chance to play them in their house and take the lead in our division. I'm back this week and I'm excited.''


Atlanta is showing signs of finding its 2016 form, and will be severely tested by Minnesota's marvelous defense. Watch for how Falcons star receiver Julio Jones and Vikings under-the-radar pass catcher Adam Thielen perform. Both are on fire.


While the Seahawks are banged-up, penalty-riddled and not-so fearsome at home anymore, the Eagles can take another major step atop the conference.


Both the Lions and Ravens have wild-card aspirations and can't afford a stumble.


WEEK 14


New Orleans at Atlanta; Minnesota at Carolina; Seattle at Jacksonville; Oakland at Kansas City; Philadelphia at Los Angeles Rams; Baltimore at Pittsburgh.


WOW!


The nastiest rivalry in the NFL, Ravens-Steelers, in the Sunday night game, possibly Baltimore's last chance to make any headway in the AFC North. Another road go-round for the Vikings in the NFC South, where that division's most-heated rivalry has the Saints at the Falcons. We'll know a whole lot more about that sector after these games - and perhaps a whole lot more about how strong the Vikings are.


While both the Raiders and Chiefs have hit mediocrity, their matchups always are noteworthy for intensity. AFC South leadership will still be in question.


The Seahawks and Jaguars both will need this game, whether for division title hopes or wild-card chances. And the Eagles are staying out west after the Seattle contest for a matchup of the top two selections in the 2016 draft: No. 1 Jared Goff vs. No. 2 Carson Wentz.


Week 15


New England at Pittsburgh; Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City; Los Angeles Rams at Seattle.


Very possible division deciders in KC and Seattle. Plus, by far, the AFC's most intriguing confrontation, most likely with home-field advantage for the conference championship game on the line.

Week 16


Minnesota at Green Bay; Atlanta at New Orleans; Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee.


OK, the Vikings probably will be playoff-bound and the Packers won't, but hopefully we'll get a glimpse of Aaron Rodgers again, back from his broken collarbone.


Falcons-Saints for the second time in three weeks, with lots on the line. And maybe a playoff-relevant home contest for the Titans against a Rams team headed to the postseason.


And these don't even consider the final weekend of all divisional matchups.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL notebook: Panthers DE Johnson suspended for PED use
December 1, 2017


Carolina Panthers defensive end Charles Johnson was suspended four games for violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing substances, the NFL announced Friday.


Johnson will begin his suspension immediately and miss Sunday's key NFL South battle against the New Orleans Saints, who are tied with the Panthers at 8-3.


Johnson will be eligible to return to the Panthers' active roster on Dec. 25 and available to play in the final regular-season game against the Atlanta Falcons on Dec. 31. He started all 11 games this season, making 16 tackles and no sacks.


"I accept full responsibility," Johnson said in a statement released by the team. "I have been recovering from back surgery, dealing with the daily grind of football and mistakenly thought this could help. It was an error in judgment on my part. We have a special group here I wanted to be a part of and felt an obligation to do my part by getting back as soon as possible."


The 31-year-old Johnson re-signed with the Panthers prior to this season on a two-year deal worth $9.5 million. He has 67.5 career sacks, second on the team's all-time list.


--Green Bay Packers running back Ty Montgomery was placed on injured reserve and will soon undergo season-ending wrist surgery.


Montgomery has been bothered by wrist soreness throughout the campaign. He is expected to be recovered from surgery before the team's offseason conditioning program beings.


Montgomery rushed for 273 yards and three touchdowns on 71 carries this season. He also caught 23 passes for 173 yards and one score.


Cornerback Kevin King (shoulder) was ruled out for Sunday's game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Listed as questionable are linebackers Clay Matthews (groin) and Ahmad Brooks (back), defensive tackle Kenny Clark (ankle), running back Aaron Jones (knee) and guard Lucas Patrick (hand).

--The Arizona Cardinals signed defensive tackle Corey Peters to a three-year contract extension through the 2020 season, the team announced.


Peters, 29, was in the final year of a three-year deal signed in 2015.


The 6-foot-3, 305-pound Peters has been with the Cardinals the past three seasons after joining the team as a free agent in 2015. After missing his first year in Arizona with a torn Achilles, the nose tackle has 38 total tackles and one sack in 24 games played over the past two seasons.


--The Denver Broncos promoted cornerback Marcus Rios to the active roster from the practice squad.


The 5-foot-11, 185-pound Rios is a rookie from UCLA who has competed on Denver's practice squad during the entire 2017 season. He entered the NFL with Denver as a college free agent on May 11.

 

[CNOTES]

SuperContest Picks - Week 13
December 2, 2017


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.


Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.


The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.


This year's contest has 2,748, which is an all-time record.


Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.


Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8


Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12




Week 13


1) Green Bay +1.5 (1016)
2) Seattle +6 (880)
3) New Orleans -4 (829)
4) Minnesota +3 (744)
5) New England -8.5 (605)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 13 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Washington (-1.5) 265 Dallas (+1.5) 117
Detroit (+2.5) 479 Baltimore (-2.5) 485
San Francisco (+3) 509 Chicago (-3) 283
Minnesota (+3) 744 Atlanta (-3) 492
New England (-8.5) 605 Buffalo (+8.5) 401
Denver (-1.5) 207 Miami (+1.5) 257
Houston (+6.5) 240 Tennessee (-6.5) 303
Indianapolis (+9.5) 302 Jacksonville (-9.5) 281
Tampa Bay (-1.5) 124 Green Bay (+1.5) 1016
Kansas City (-3.5) 386 N.Y. Jets (+3.5) 525
Carolina (+4) 366 New Orleans (-4) 829
Cleveland (+14) 299 L.A. Chargers (-14) 312
L.A. Rams (-7) 484 Arizona (+7) 354
N.Y. Giants (+8.6) 149 Oakland (-8.5) 398
Philadelphia (-6) 444 Seattle (+6) 880
Pittsburgh (-5) 534 Cincinnati (+5) 315


WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 0-5 0-5 0%
2 3-2 3-7 30%
3 2-3 5-10 33%
4 4-1 9-11 45%
5 1-4 10-15 40%
6 2-3 12-18 40%
7 0-5 12-23 34%
8 2-3 14-26 35%
9 3-2 17-28 38%
10 1-4 18-32 36%
11 4-1 22-33 40%
12 3-2 25-35 42%
13 - - -
14 - - -
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

 

[CNOTES]

Gridiron Angles - Week 13
December 2, 2017


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:


-- The Patriots are 11-0 ATS (10.64 ppg) coming off a home game where they allowed no more than 18 first downs.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:


-- The Raiders are 0-10 ATS (-10.80 ppg) off a game as a favorite of more than three points where they covered.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:


-- The Bills are 8-0 OU (8.94 ppg) at home when Tyrod Taylor completed at least 60% of their passes last game.


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:


-- The Lions are 0-10 OU (-11.20 ppg) on the road off a game as a dog where they allowed 30 points.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:


-- The Panthers are 12-0 OU (12.75 ppg) as a road dog coming off a game where they allowed at least seven points more than expected.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:


-- The Patriots are 20-0 OU (+10.88 ppg) as a favorite after a TD-plus win and they are facing a team that just held their opponent to less than 250 yards of offense.

 

[CNOTES]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 13
December 2, 2017


The betting public loves siding with great NFL offenses and Sunday's Week 13 action is no different with New England, New Orleans and Philadelphia lined up one after another. That's the No. 1 offense with the Patriots (411 yard per game) followed by No. 2 with the Saints (409 YPG) followed by the Eagles third-ranked offense(381 YPG).


The name of the game is scoring the most and then covering the sports book numbers, so why not side with the most efficient offenses to cash? Since the advent of betting football, this has always been the case with the masses, it's just kind of cute to see them all lined up so perfectly in order.


"The Patriots are our biggest risk of the day," MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback said Saturday afternoon from his Mirage office. "We're absolutely loaded on them with everything -- straight bets, parlays teasers -- everything is on sided. Our ticket count has the Patriots being bet at an 8-to-1 ratio."


William Hill sports books also have 81 percent of their tickets written on the game siding with the Patriots who they opened 8.5-point road favorites at Buffalo and the number quickly moved to -9 on Tuesday. The Bills had three memorable bad losses in a row before last weeks 16-10 win at Kansas City. Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor was benched two weeks ago prior to the Chargers game and they proceeded to lose 54-27. The week before it was the Saints beating Buffalo 47-10 on the road. Those type of losses is what the public hopes to see and they've got a nice candidate to do it with New England.


All the Patriots have done to gain favor is win seven straight (6-1 against the spread), win and cover 12 of its last 14 road games and win and cover their last three at Buffalo. That's a nice resume, and the cherry on top is the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook dropping the Patriots down to 2/1 odds to win the Super Bowl.


"The next biggest risk is the Saints," said Stoneback, who has New Orleans listed as a 4.5-point home favorite over the Panthers. "It's not quite the same as Patriots, but a Patriots-Saints cover combination won't be good for us."


The Saints (8-3) have covered the past five meetings with the Panthers (8-3), including a 34-13 road win at Carolina in Week 3, which started an eight-game wining streak that was snapped last week at the Rams, who are also 8-3. This game could be the NFC South crown and possibly a bye in the playoffs. It should be noted that the Panthers won and covered their last four and Cam Newton has put 38, 41 and 41 on the Superdome scoreboard in his last three trips while winning two of them.


And then of course, there's the super Eagles (10-1) who have won nine straight and covered their last eight victories. The sports books have yet to catch up with them despite attaching a 25 percent luxury tax for the public. This week's game is at Seattle and a big bettor who has been riding the Eagles at inflated prices weekly is on them again.


"The same guy that's been betting big with us the past weeks taking the Rams, Eagles and a couple other teams took the Eagles -5, but that's about the only real risk we have on the game right now," Stoneback said. "We're actually seeing some support for Seattle in parlay action. It's not that big of a decision right now despite the large Eagles bet."


This is certainly a new era for Pete Carroll's Seahawks when we see a team go into Seattle and be almost a touchdown favorite. The Legion of Boom is banged up, the offensive line is terrible and QB Russell Wilson is the leading rusher, but Seattle is still certainly the best team Philly has played during their nine-game win streak.


Another big game in the NFC has the Vikings (9-2) getting +3, -120 at Atlanta (7-4).


"I was surprised that the public came in on Atlanta," Stoneback said. "We have one big Falcons straight bet, but the ticket counts still favor the Vikings at 3-to-1 while the parlay wagers are siding with the Falcons at a 2-to-1 ratio. If we took the one large wager out of the mix we'd be kind of even on the game."


Minnesota has won its last seven to take control of the NFC North and the Vikings have also covered their last six games. They rank in the top-5 in both offense and defense. The Falcons finally look like the NFC's Super Bowl representative from last season as they ride a three game win and cover streak into this matchup while averaging just over 31 points per game. Something to consider here is that Atlanta has gone 'over' the total in 13 of its last 16 home games. If they really are back to being the 2016 Falcons, 47 points might be too small.


Other musings from week of action:


People refuse to believe that Denver (3-8) is awful despite a seven-game losing streak. The Wynn has them as high as -2 at Miami (4-7). When is the last time you saw an 0-5 team on the road be favored in its sixth road game. It's back to Trevor Siemian at QB for Denver.


The Westgate opened the 4-7 Buccaneers -2.5on Wednesday for their road game at Green Bay (5-6). On Thursday it was announced that regular starting QB Jameis Winston would be back in the Bucs lineup and the line went the other way, like all the way to Packers -2.5. Bucs back-up Ryan Fitzpatrick led them to two wins before losing at Atlanta last week. Winston had lost five straight when he got hurt. WestgateSuperBook manager Ed Salmons shares the reasoning behind the move.


"The last few weeks before Winston sat out, he still had a banged up shoulder and people were simply betting against the injury and cashing," Salmons explained. "When this number first came up it was with the intention that Winston's shoulder is back to being 100 percent, and bettors are betting against it this week."


Eli Manning was benched and Geno Smith is here to save the season for the Giants (2-9). The Raiders (5-6) opened -7 -120 and are now -8. Oakland will be without both starting wide receivers, Amari Cooper and Micheal Crabtree, with third-stringer Cordarelle Patterson questionable with a banged up hip. This is almost an unbettable game, but as the results start posting in the 10:00 am PT games, whether winning or losing, someone in the bar or sports book will spout off some info enticing a wager.


The Rams have been -7 and -6.5 during the week, but there's been a new found respect for the talent on the Cardinals (5-6) which has battled well behind third-string QB Blaine Gabbert. Maybe Gabbert found a home with a suitable system for his talents. So far he's got a better QB rating than both Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton.


The Chargers (5-6) get the duty of playing the Browns (0-11) this week and the fine people of Carson, CA get to witness the worst team, and uniforms in the NFL (was spelling the name Browns on the pants really needed?). They've failed to cover their last four games, and nine of 11 this season, while the Chargers have the look of being the best team in the AFC West. The Chargers have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.


And of course the public has hopped off the Chiefs bandwagon a long time ago. Kansas City (6-5) has gone 1-5 straight-up and ATS in their last six after starting 5-0. It's an amazing spectacle to watch unravel. The Chiefs opened 4.5-point road favorites against the Jets (4-7) and it's been bet down to as low as -3 flat at the South Point. The Jets are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Week 13
December 2, 2017


The ‘over’ produced a 9-7 mark last weekend but it wasn’t easy as bettors had to put in a full 60-minute session on a handful of those games. We saw 26 of 32 teams put up at least one score in the fourth quarter and 19 clubs posted 10 or more points in the second-half. Through 12 weeks, the ‘over’ holds a 91-84-1 record.


Line Moves


Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday afternoon based off the Week 13 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.


Detroit at Baltimore: 41 to 43 ½
San Francisco at Chicago: 39 ½ to 41
Tampa Bay at Green Bay: 43 to 45
Cleveland at L.A. Chargers: 42 ½ to 44
N.Y. Giants at Oakland: 44 to 41 ½
Philadelphia at Seattle: 48 to 46 ½


Not a lot of major movement again this week, but a few of the totals receiving interest appear to be quarterback related. Jimmy Garropolo will make his debut for San Francisco while Geno Smith gets the start over Eli Manning for the New York Giants. Also, Jameis Winston returns to action for Tampa Bay this week and all three of the signal callers will be on the road.


Scoot Cooley of BookMaker.eu offered his thoughts on the moves. He explained, “I’d say two of the three quarterback changes are prompting good action from the sharp bettors. They know what to expect from Smith, but Garropolo is a wildcard.”


One move that could have bettors scratching their heads is the drop in the Philadelphia-Seattle matchup. The Eagles are averaging a league-best 31.9 points per game, plus the primetime game on Sunday usually receives plenty of ‘over’ tickets.


Cooley wasn’t surprised by the drop. “The Eagles can win a lot of different ways and if the Seahawks want to slow it down Philly doesn’t mind playing along. That said, both of these teams are very capable of scoring. But I think this stays under.”


Keep an Eye On


The Road Total System is in play this week as Tampa Bay visits Green Bay on Sunday.


What’s the angle?


Play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game


So far this season, we’ve seen back and forth results (2-2) in the four situations but the ‘over’ is 43-22 (66%) over the last 12 seasons. Make a note that this three-game stretch wasn’t expected for the Buccaneers but it took place because their Week 1 game at Miami was postponed due to Hurricane Irma. For what it’s worth, Tampa Bay has watched the ‘over’ go 5-1 on the road.


-- The ‘over’ has gone 27-20-1 in non-conference games this season and we have two on tap this week with the Lions visiting the Ravens and Oakland hosting the N.Y. Giants. Make a note that Detroit has been the best ‘over’ bet (8-3) in the NFL this season.


-- Something has to give in the Chiefs and Jets total. Kansas City are on a 3-0 ‘under’ run and the offense (12 PPG) is lacking any punch. Meanwhile, New York has watched the ‘over’ cash in four of its last five and its defense (25.4 PPG) continues to be an issue.


-- The Browns have lost 26 of their last 27 games, the lone win came against the Chargers. On Sunday, Cleveland faces them at Los Angeles. The Browns have allowed 31.5 PPG on the road this season, which has helped the ‘over’ go 4-1.

Divisional Games

The ‘under’ has gone 32-18 (64%) in divisional matchups this season, which includes a 4-4 record from last week and the ‘over’ result between Dallas and Washington this past Thursday. Playing the opposite total wager in the rematches didn’t turn out that well in Week 12 as three of the five games saw the same result in the second go ‘round. We have six divisional games remaining and five of them will be rematches.

New England at Buffalo: The ‘under’ has gone 2-1 in the last three meetings but QB Tom Brady didn’t play in one of those results due to a suspension. When Brady does play versus the Bills, he owns them and he’s absolutely crushed them on the road. The last five visits to Buffalo, the Patriots have scored 41, 40, 37, 23 and 58 points. The Bills held the Chiefs to 10 points last week but allowed 101 in their two previous games. I don’t see Buffalo slowing down the juggernaut this week but the New England defense continues to stifle opponents. In the last seven games, the unit is allowing 13.1 PPG and that’s led to a 5-2 ‘under’ mark.


Houston at Tennessee: The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in this series and that includes a 57-14 blowout win by the Texans in Week 4. The difference in the rematch is that Houston won’t have QB Deshaun Watson and he accounted for five touchdowns in the first encounter. Tennessee has been a solid ‘over’ bet (4-1) at home and the lone ‘under’ occurred in Week 1 when it was starting at a total in the fifties. The Titans offense hasn’t been super but they’ve been doing enough to surpass those low totals in the forties.


Indianapolis at Jacksonville: The ‘under’ has cashed in four of the last six encounters. The Jaguars posted a 27-0 win at the Colts on Oct. 22 and that total (41) was in the same neighborhood as this week’s number (40 ½). Indy enters this game on a 3-0 ‘under’ run and it’s been very solid defensively (14, 20, 20) during this span. Jacksonville is off a loss and it has gone 3-0 after a defeat this season while only allowing a combined 16 points in the victories.


Carolina at New Orleans: The Saints dominated the Panthers 34-13 in Week 3 on the road and the ‘over’ (46) slid in late. The total this week is sitting at 48 ½ and I expect this number to be near 50 by kickoff. Including the result in September, the ‘over’ has cashed in five of the last six between the pair. My only hesitation for leaning high is Carolina’s unpredictable offense plus this is a key game in the NFC playoff race and that could have both coaches playing tight. However, both defensive units are short-handed and the last two games played at the Superdome ended in identical 41-38 outcomes.

L.A. Rams at Arizona: The ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run in this series and the first meeting this season took place in London as the Rams posted a 33-0 win over the Cardinals on Oct. 22. After a 6-2 start to the ‘over’, the Rams have watched the ‘under’ cash in three straight. Meanwhile, Arizona started the season with a 7-2 ‘under’ mark but backup QB Blaine Gabbert has helped the Cardinals go ‘over’ the last two weeks. The Rams remain the top scoring offense (32.3 PPG) away from home and Gabbert has provided Arizona with some confidence. Still, it’s hard for me to ignore the fact that the Cards haven’t won back-to-back games this season (0-4) and the offense has scored 17, 7, 0 and 16 points in those losses.


Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: (See Below)


Under the Lights


The ‘under’ went 2-1 in the primetime games last week and I thought that run was going to continue this past Thursday but Washington and Dallas went ‘over’ despite the first and third quarters going scoreless. Including that result, the ‘over’ has gone 24-14 (63%) in primetime games this season.

Over-Under Results: SNF (7-6), MNF (9-4), TNF (8-4)

Philadelphia at Seattle: As noted above, the total has dropped on this matchup and I disagree with the early move unless you’re expecting a serious letdown for Philadelphia. The Eagles have been the class of the NFC this season and they’re facing a Seattle team that’s living off its past reputation. The defense has been decimated by injuries and the home numbers (23.2 PPG) they’ve allowed is glaring. Philadelphia has played three times under the lights this season and it’s averaged 33 PPG. Knowing the Eagles defense has dropped off a bit on the road (20 PPG) and the Seahawks are averaging 28.8 PPG at home, it’s hard to imagine both teams not getting at least four to five scores in this game. Barring a parade of field goals, my lean would go to the high side.


Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: These teams played to a rare ‘over’ ticket in Week 7 when Pittsburgh captured a 29-14 home win. Prior to that result, the ‘under’ was on a 5-1 run. For the rematch, the total has been pushed up from 41 to 43. This will be the third straight primetime game for Pittsburgh, and the ‘over’ hit in both games as it scored 41 and 30 points. Cincinnati will present a much stiffer test defensively, especially at home (17.6 PPG). Even though the Steelers defense is banged-up, the Bengals are averaging 15.3 PPG this season against teams not named Cleveland.


Fearless Predictions


I almost pulled off the rare back-to-back sweep but the Packers and Steelers couldn’t be stopped and that eliminated the teaser wager. Still a profitable a week (+200) yet still slightly down on the season ($420). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!


Best Over: New England-Buffalo 48


Best Under: Houston-Tennessee 43


Best Team Total: Over Seattle Seahawks 21


Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Under 48 ½ Denver-Miami
Under 55 ½ Minnesota-Atlanta
Over 35 ½ Cleveland-Los Angeles