Cnotes 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[CNOTES]

A Parlay Tonight Just For Fun...................


PARLAY (7 TEAMS)


Risk: 20.00 - Win: 1911.36


[312] Pittsburgh Steelers -7 2.00


Game start 11/16/2017 05:25 PM
[311] TOTAL o44 1.90 (Tennessee Titans vrs Pittsburgh Steelers)


Game start 11/16/2017 05:25 PM
[315] Tulsa +23 1.90


Game start 11/16/2017 04:30 PM
[315] TOTAL o64.5 1.90 (Tulsa vrs South Florida)


Game start 11/16/2017 04:30 PM
[502] Boston Celtics +7.5 1.90


Game start 11/16/2017 05:05 PM
[502] TOTAL u217 1.90 (Golden State Warriors vrs Boston Celtics)
Game start 11/16/2017 05:05 PM


Extra Game
[555] CS Bakersfield +25 1.95
Game start 11/16/2017 07:00 PM

 

[amado21]

My friend you are so close to hit the big 7 team parlay..good luck

 

[CNOTES]

Steelers drill Titans 40-17; Big Ben 4 TDs
November 16, 2017


PITTSBURGH (AP) Ben Roethlisberger threw for 299 yards and four touchdowns, three to Antonio Brown, and the Pittsburgh Steelers pulled away from the Tennessee Titans in a 40-17 victory on Thursday night.


Running the no-huddle offense extensively for the first time all season, Roethlisberger completed 30 of 45 passes to help the Steelers (8-2) win their fifth straight.


Brown caught 10 passes for 144 yards and the three scores, including an acrobatic grab in the back of the end zone in which he pinned the ball to his helmet before bringing it in to put Pittsburgh up 20 in the fourth quarter.


Marcus Mariota ran for a touchdown and threw for another but also was picked off four times as the Titans (6-4) saw their four-game winning streak come to a crashing halt. Mariota finished 22 of 33 for 306 yards but was under pressure much of the night, absorbing five sacks and rarely finding room to move outside the pocket.


Still, Tennessee appeared to be in it when Mariota hit Rishard Matthews with a 75-yard touchdown pass on the first play of the second half to get to 16-14 but Pittsburgh's long-sputtering offense finally came to life.


Roethlisberger dropped some very not subtle hints that he wanted the freedom provided by the no-huddle after the Steelers used it to pick the Colts apart during the winning drive last Sunday in Indianapolis.


Offensive coordinator Todd Haley appeared to be listening.


Pittsburgh opened in the no huddle and needed just six plays to take the lead as Roethlisberger took advantage of a Bonus Play and hit Brown with a 41-yard rainbow. Mike Hilton then returned Mariota's interception to set up the first of Chris Boswell's four field goals and the Steelers appeared on the verge of another prime-time blowout at home.


The blowout did eventually arrive, just not quickly.


The offense ground to a halt for the rest of the half, held in check by former defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau. The Hall of Famer spent 12 years building a defense that helped Pittsburgh to a pair of Super Bowl victories before being ushered out in favor of protege Keith Butler in January, 2015. The 80-year-old is in the middle of his latest project with the steadily improving Titans.


Yet the gap between Tennessee and Pittsburgh remains significant. The proof came after Mathews' long catch-and-run appeared to give the Titans momentum.


It didn't last.


The Steelers, with Roethlisberger deftly at the controls, finally showcased the firepower they've only flirted with this season. The 35-year-old who has struggled with his accuracy at times was near perfect over the final 30 minutes. He finished 20 of 23 for 185 yards in the second half as Pittsburgh's $92-million offense sprang to life but scoring on four straight possessions.


Roethlisberger found a leaping Brown for a 5-yard score to put Pittsburgh up 23-14, executed a perfect play-action fake that the goal line before flipping it to a wide-open Jesse James for a 1-yard touchdown and put the Titans away with a lob to the back corner of the end zone that Brown somehow hauled in from 10 yards out that made it 37-17.


Pittsburgh rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster knelt down and bowed to Brown during the giddy celebration. Hard to blame the 20-year-old. For the first time all season, the Steelers put it all together and looked every bit like a team with a legitimate threat to play deep into January and beyond.

UP NEXT


Titans: Visit Indianapolis on Nov. 26. Tennessee beat the Colts 36-22 on Oct. 16.


Steelers: Welcome the Green Bay Packers on Nov. 26, the second of four straight prime-time games for Pittsburgh.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday, November 19, 2017
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Detroit Lions Chicago Bears
1:00 PM Jacksonville Jaguars Cleveland Browns
1:00 PM Baltimore Ravens Green Bay Packers
1:00 PM Arizona Cardinals Houston Texans
1:00 PM Los Angeles Rams Minnesota Vikings
1:00 PM Washington Redskins New Orleans Saints
1:00 PM Kansas City Chiefs New York Giants
1:00 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers Miami Dolphins
4:05 PM Buffalo Bills Los Angeles Chargers
4:25 PM Cincinnati Bengals Denver Broncos
4:25 PM New England Patriots Oakland Raiders
8:30 PM Philadelphia Eagles Dallas Cowboys


************************


NFL Record For November......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )


11/16/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
11/13/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
11/12/2017 10-14-0 41.67% -27.00
11/09/2017 1-0-1 100.00% +5.00
11/06/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
11/05/2017 5-8-1 38.46% -19.00
11/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50




Totals.........20 - 26 - 2.......43.47%.......-43.00




Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total


11/16/2017................1- 0..................+5.00...............1 - 0............+5.00..............+10.00
11/13/2017................0 - 1..................-5.50...............0 - 1.............-5.50...............-11.00
11/12/2017................1 - 2..................-4.50...............1 - 8............-39.00...............-43.50
11/09/2017..............0 - 0 - 1...............+0.00..............1 - 0............+5.00................+5.00
11/06/2017................1 - 0..................+5.00..............0 - 1.............-5.50................-0.50
11/05/2017................0 - 2..................-11.00..............3 - 1............+9.50................-1.50
11/02/2017................1 - 0..................+5.00..............0 - 0............+0.00...............+5.00




Totals........................4 - 6..................-6.00................6 - 11...........-35.50..............-41.50


*******************


11 /02 / 17 -Thursday Night POM........New York Jets + 3....34 - 21............Winner

 

[CNOTES]

NFL notebook: Owners rebuke Jones for detrimental conduct
November 16, 2017

Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has been informed by other NFL owners via letter that he is engaging in "conduct detrimental to the league's best interests," the New York Times reported Thursday.


The letter was sent to Jones through his attorney, David Boies, on Wednesday, one day after Jones expressed publicly that he had no intention of halting his efforts to prevent NFL commissioner Roger Goodell from receiving a contract extension.


Jones has threatened to sue the NFL if the extension is approved by the six-owner compensation committee, headed by Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank.


The letter accuses Jones of sabotaging the negotiations in the latest round of the escalating feud between Jones and Goodell. Jones is suspected of sharing outdated documents about negotiations with Goodell to other owners.


It was revealed last weekend that Goodell requested a salary of approximately $49.5 million, a private jet and lifetime health insurance for his family last August. Goodell's contract expires in 2018.


--Cleveland Browns wide receiver Corey Coleman will return from injured reserve for Sunday's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, coach Hue Jackson said.


Coleman has been sidelined since breaking a bone in his hand in a 24-10 loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Sept. 17. The former first-round pick was placed on injured reserve but later was designated to return by the Browns (0-9).


Coleman has encountered obstacles since being selected with the 15th overall pick in the 2016 draft. He suffered a different broken bone in his hand during his rookie season and finished with 33 receptions and three touchdowns.


--Dallas Cowboys Pro Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith sat out Thursday's practice with groin and back issues.


After missing practice on consecutive days, Smith's availability is in question for the Cowboys (5-4) in Sunday's home game against the NFC East-leading Philadelphia Eagles (8-1).


Smith's absence was felt during last Sunday's 27-7 loss to the Atlanta Falcons, as Dak Prescott was sacked eight times -- including on six occasions by defensive end Adrian Clayborn.


--Jacksonville Jaguars rookie wide receiver Dede Westbrook has great expectations heading into his potential NFL debut on Sunday against the winless Cleveland Browns.


Westbrook, who could be activated off injured reserve this week following core muscle surgery, offered the following to "Teal & Black Blitz" on SportsRadio 930 Wednesday:


"My expectations are high," Westbrook said. "I always set the standard high for myself. For me, and this has nothing to do with the Cleveland Browns at all, but my expectation is a 200-yard receiving game. Of course that's going to come with me and Blake (Bortles) being on the same page most of the game, but at the end of the day, that's the expectations that I have for myself this weekend."

--The New Orleans Saints have secured the services of Mike Westhoff to oversee the club's special teams units, coach Sean Payton said.


Coaches Bradford Banta and Kevin O'Dea will remain on staff to work with Westhoff, who retired from the NFL after the 2012 season with the New York Jets. The 69-year-old is expected to remain with the Saints until the end of this season.


The Saints (7-2) are riding high on a seven-game winning streak, but the club has endured stumbles from its special teams. New Orleans resides 30th in the league in punt return average and 28th in kickoff return average.


--The Arizona Cardinals promoted tackle/guard Vinston Painter from the practice squad to the active roster, the team announced.


Painter, who was on the active roster and played in Week 4, re-signed with the team's practice squad on Oct. 3. The 6-foot-4, 322-pound Painter has appeared in nine NFL regular-season games -- five with the Washington Redskins last season and three with the Cleveland Browns in 2014.

 

[CNOTES]

Friday’s six-pack


More NFL trends with Week 11 upon us……


— New Orleans covered nine of its last 12 games.


— Bengals are 1-6-1 in last eight games as a road underdog.


— Atlanta is 8-2 vs spread in last ten games as a road underdog.


— Seahawks are 3-7-1 vs spread in their last 11 games.


— Falcons covered eight of last ten games as a road underdog.


— Ravens covered seven of their last nine post-bye games.

 

[CNOTES]

Friday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here……..


13) UCLA is on the hook for a lot of money, regarding the housing/feeding for a week of the three nitwits who stole stuff in China- they also have to check with the NCAA to make sure that paying for all of that won’t be a violation of NCAA rules, as far as the special benefits rules are concerned.


Next year’s China game is Yale vs Cal; you think those kids will get sick of hearing lectures about how they represent their families, school and country while overseas?


12) If it was my choice, I’d cap Roger Goodell’s salary at $32M a year, $1M from each team. If he can’t live on that and buy health insurance for his family, then go find another bleeping job.


11) Joel Embiid went off Wednesday night— 46 points, 14 rebounds, 7 assists, 7 blocked shots. Quite a performance; 76ers are fun to watch on the NBA League Pass.


10) Speaking of the 76ers, Robert Covington got a 4-year, $62M extension this week; not bad for a guy who playing in the D-League four years ago.


9) Mets said they may restrict most of their starting pitchers to two trips thru the lineup next year, the exceptions being deGrom/Syndegaard.


Two times thru the order is obviously 18 hitters; average pitches per at bat is around 3.9, we’ll round up to 4.0, so that is only 72 pitches per start for starting pitchers 3-5, which is going to put a huge amount of stress on bullpens. Will be an interesting experiment, if they try it.


8) Roy Williams is the first college basketball coach to win 400+ games at two different schools, Kansas and North Carolina.


7) Charleston junior F Jarrell Brantley is out 4-6 weeks wth a knee injury, bad mews for a Cougar squad that was picked to win the CAA this year. Brantley was a first-team CAA pick, so this is a big deal for them……….Rhode Island loses EC Matthews for 4-6 weeks with a broken wrist. This poor guy missed the whole season two years ago with an injury, too.


6) Arkansas fired AD Jeff Long, meaning that football coach Bret Bielema is just about out the door. Boosters want to go after Auburn coach Gus Malzahn, but why would Malzahn leave a better job in the same league?


5) Titans’ tackle Taylor Lewan, on Tennessee’s powder blue uniforms for Thursday’s game:


“When you look at us, it’s pretty self-explanatory – we look like Smurfs. But the Smurf look is solid. I don’t mind it. I think it is a pretty rad deal. Hey, it’s fun to switch it up every once in a while and have those funky uniforms. I think it’s pretty cool, I really do. I think you’ll find some guys love them, and other guys hate them. Personally, I don’t really care too much about what I am wearing during the game, but I do think it’s fun.”


4) Every time I see Grayson Allen play for Duke, I think he is somehow related to Ted Cruz, the guy who ran for President last year. They could easily be father/son, they look that much alike.


3) Celtics 92, Warriors 88- Boston is 14-0 since an 0-2 start, despite Gordon Hayward blowing his ankle out 5:00 into the season. NBA season is a marathon, but this is a remarkable streak Celtics are on, seeing how Kyrie Irving was also hurt during part of the streak.


2) Steelers 40, Titans 17— Mariota threw four INT’s, Steelers had five sacks, outscoring Titans 17-0 in 4th quarter. 19 of Pittsburgh’s 25 first downs came thru the air.


1) So Kevin Durant is upset because the Oklahoma City Thunder gave his old #35 jersey to undrafted rookie P.J. Dozier last month. Let him explain:


“I didn’t have that perspective at first. I didn’t have it when I went back to OKC. I was like, ‘F— all of them. I didn’t have it when they gave my number away. I was, ‘F— all of them.’ My best friend works for the team, I told him, ‘F— all y’all. That’s f—ed up.’ Then I had to get out of my head, tell myself, ‘It’s not that serious, it is what it is.’


“I understand it’s not my number anymore, they can do whatever they want with it, but you hand that number to a two-way player, you’ve got to be, like, ‘Nah, we’ve got too many good memories with this number, man.’ But at some point, that thing’s going to be in the rafters anyway; it’s all good. I did something they didn’t like. They did something I didn’t like. S— happens.”

 

[CNOTES]

Injuries hit Seattle secondary
November 17, 2017


RENTON, Wash. -- For the time in 100 games, the Seattle Seahawks will have to play a game without Richard Sherman as their starting left cornerback.


And with strong safety Kam Chancellor also potentially sidelined and free safety Earl Thomas nursing a hamstring strain, Seattle's "Legion of Boom" secondary comes into Monday night's game against the Atlanta Falcons as banged up as they've ever been as a unit.


Sherman is on injured reserve and had surgery to repair his Achilles on Wednesday. Chancellor's status is uncertain as he's still undergoing tests to determine the severity of a stinger sustained last Thursday against Arizona.


"It's definitely going to be weird," linebacker Bobby Wagner said of potentially missing Sherman and Chancellor. "I've never played a game without Richard. He's definitely going to be missed. But to have both of those guys missing in action is not something that we've ever had to deal with, but I think it's something that we're prepared for. I think we can hold it down until at least one of them gets back. The other one (Sherman) might take a while."


Bradley McDougald would start at strong safety in place of Chancellor after playing the last two weeks in Thomas' free safety spot. Jeremy Lane will assume Sherman's starting job at cornerback.


Thomas is expected to return to the lineup after missing the last two games with a hamstring strain, but it will be alongside a depleted group.


"We're very fortunate to have Bradley. He's played great," head coach Pete Carroll said of McDougald. "It's no big deal for him to play strong safety versus free safety so he'll jump right in there."


Additionally, Seattle brought back cornerback Byron Maxwell this week, who played four seasons for Seattle before spending the last two years in Philadelphia and Miami, respectively. Maxwell feels he has something to prove in his return with Seattle after two relatively disappointing seasons elsewhere.


"Definitely. Always, man," Maxwell said. "It's another opportunity to get out here and show what I can do so I'm looking forward to it. You've always got to prove yourself in this league no matter what. No matter if you're Dwight Freeney, he's out here trying to prove himself that he can still do it so no matter who you are, you're still trying to prove that you can do it."


Super Bowl XLIX is the closest Seattle's come to being as banged up in their back end. Sherman placed the game with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, Chancellor sprained a medical collateral ligament in his knee the Friday before the game and nearly missed the game. Meanwhile, Thomas played with a labrum tear in his shoulder that required offseason surgery.


But they all played. That won't be the case on Monday night.


--Running back C.J. Prosise was placed on injured reserve Tuesday with Mike Davis being promoted to the active roster to take his place.


Prosise played in parts of just five games this season due to a pair of high-ankle sprains that limited his availability and ultimately moved him to the injured list. It continued a string of serious injuries for Prosise dating back to his rookie year. A broken wrist bone and fractured scapula limited him to just six games as a rookie.


"C.J. is a marvelous player, but he has just not been able to stay healthy," head coach Pete Carroll said. "So we are going to give him the time to get well and heal it up."


Davis has spent the entire season on Seattle's practice squad after a solid preseason. He carried 24 times for 106 yards in four preseason games for the Seahawks. He also caught five passes for 41 yards with a touchdown.


"Mike has been, really, one of our favorites going all the way back to camp," Carroll said. "He had a really good offseason and a really good camp with us and a good preseason. ... We see a little bit of a well-roundedness in him. He's real competitive and he's really hungry to go. He's been with us all year, so the transition is seamless and looking forward to seeing what he brings."


Davis appeared in 14 career games with the San Francisco 49ers after being a fourth-round pick in 2015. He managed just 108 yards and a touchdown on 54 total carries, good for just a 2.0 yards-per-carry average. He also caught 10 passes for 63 yards.


"More confident, more angry since I got cut anyway," Davis said. "I play with an edge, a chip on my shoulder. That's something that really killed me is when I got cut (by the 49ers). It changed everything I do.


"It was a major shock to me because I feel like I didn't get a chance there, especially with the new coaching staff, but it's something I can't be angry about. It happens. It's a business."


While Seattle ranks 22nd in the league in rushing, quarterback Russell Wilson is their leading rusher. Their second leading rusher is Chris Carson, who has been out since Week 4 due to a severe high-ankle sprain and fractured leg. Eddie Lacy is the team's leading rusher currently on the roster with 128 yards on 48 carries. He ranks 77th in the league in rushing.


"It is frustrating somewhat," Carroll said of Seattle's rushing game struggles. "We've got to keep moving and we've got to do what we can with our guys and it hasn't been quite the same, but we're still moving the football and we're making a lot of first downs and we can do a lot of damage. We just have to do it the way we can do it. And I never give up on the fact of trying to balance out your attack. I think it's the best way to play football, so we'll find a way to do that, but it is a little bit different. It hasn't been obvious as it has been in the past."


--Cornerback Jeremy Lane finds himself back in a starting role with Seattle just weeks after he was traded to the Houston Texans.


If not for a failed physical, Lane would still be in Houston. Instead, he's now starting in the spot vacated by the loss of Richard Sherman to a torn Achilles.


"It's crazy how things worked out with me being traded, coming back and I've got an opportunity to start now so I'm excited," Lane said.


Lane sustained a thigh bruise in Seattle's game against Houston in October. The very next day, he was dealt to the Texans as part of a package that enabled the Seahawks to acquire left tackle Duane Brown. When the thigh bruise scuttled his physical with the Texans, Lane jumped back on a flight to Seattle uncertain of the reception he would receive coming back to the team that had just traded him away.


"It wasn't even 24 hours," said Lane, who called the experience an emotional roller coaster. "When I came in the locker room and walked in, I thought it would be awkward at first. But as soon as I came in it was kind of like 'fool!' and everybody started clapping their hands and giving me hugs. It was crazy."


The trade was amended with additional draft compensation being exchanged to complete the deal. With Sherman going down last Thursday night, the circumstances turned into an unexpected benefit for the Seahawks.


"We are very fortunate to have Jeremy Lane with us and ready to play," head coach Pete Carroll said. "And now, Shaq (Griffin) has become a starter, Jeremy has legitimately been a starter, so we couldn't be much more fortunate than that to have a guy step up and a guy that has been around the program and all that."


Lane said he finally feels like he's back to full health. He's played just three full games this season due to a groin strain, thigh bruise and first-quarter ejection in Seattle's season opener against Green Bay.


"I'm ready now," he said. "Finally, I'm ready to rock and roll."

 

[CNOTES]

Seahawks' vaunted secondary possibly down 2 vs. Falcons
November 16, 2017


RENTON, Wash. (AP) Bobby Wagner knows he won't have Richard Sherman chirping in his ear from the Seattle Seahawks secondary the rest of the season.


Wagner may not have Kam Chancellor to rely on as protection for at least this week either.


''I've never played a game without Richard, he's definitely going to be missed, but to have both of those guys missing in action is not something that we have ever had to deal with,'' Wagner said Thursday. ''I think it's something that we're prepared for if we can hold it down until at least one of them gets back. The other one might take a while.''


Seattle's standout secondary could possibly be without another of its founding members Monday night when the Seahawks host the Atlanta Falcons. Sherman is done for the season following an Achilles tendon injury for which he underwent surgery this week. Seattle is being coy about the status of Chancellor, who suffered a stinger late in the victory over Arizona on Nov. 9. While Chancellor has not been ruled out of the Atlanta game, he was still undergoing tests Thursday.


''He's still getting some work done, tests done,'' coach Pete Carroll said. ''Don't have anything updated yet.''


The one bright spot for Seattle is optimism that safety Earl Thomas will return this week after missing the past two games with a hamstring injury. Thomas' return would be key for the continuity of the secondary. Much of what Seattle does in its coverages is predicated on Thomas being at free safety and his ability to cover so much ground.


If Chancellor can't go, the drop off may not be as severe as in the past. Bradley McDougald, who started the past two games at free safety with Thomas out, would slide over to strong safety if Chancellor is unavailable. The Seahawks have raved about McDougald's versatility since he was signed in the offseason as a free agent.


''He has been a fantastic addition and ... a little bit of an unsung hero at this time for this season, that he has been able to be so versatile and be so successful at what he is doing,'' Carroll said.


McDougald has split time between both safety positions in his career, but said Thursday he likes strong safety in Seattle's system because of the ability to play closer to the line of scrimmage.


''I like being down in the box a little bit more at the strong safety position,'' McDougald said. ''I think there's a lot more action than sitting in the middle of the field and being a blanket over the defense. You get to be in the run fits, play more man-to-man, just be a lot more in the mix.''


Seattle is also uncertain whether run-stuffing defensive tackle Jarran Reed will be able to play after he suffered a hamstring injury against the Cardinals.


The injuries aren't limited to the defensive side. The Seahawks are unsure if left tackle Duane Brown will be able to play following an ankle injury against Arizona. Brown said Thursday that the ankle is getting better but offensive line coach Tom Cable said the team is preparing for Matt Tobin to start at left tackle should Brown be unable to go.


''It's progressing every day so far. That's the main thing,'' Brown said.


NOTES: Carroll did not provide an update on discussions with the NFL regarding its review of whether Seattle followed concussion protocols with QB Russell Wilson in the win over Arizona. ''The medical staff and the training staff is working on that stuff and as we progress we will let you know when we can. We don't have any other information for you,'' he said. ... RB Eddie Lacy (groin) returned to practice. ... G Luke Joeckel is close to returning after minor knee surgery last month, but it's unlikely he'll be back this week.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Week 11
November 18, 2017


The ‘over’ went 8-6 last week and most of the results were clear-cut. It wasn’t surprising to see New Orleans put up 30 points in the second-half but doing so with a ground-and-pound attack was eye-opening. At the same time, I didn’t believe Dallas could be held scoreless for three consecutive quarters but that’s why the NFL remains the toughest sport to handicap. Through 10 weeks, the ‘over’ holds a 75-70-1 record.


Line Moves


Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday afternoon based off the Week 11 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.


Detroit at Chicago: 44 to 41
Kansas City at N.Y. Giants: 44 to 45 ½
Tampa Bay at Miami: 43 ½ to 42
Arizona at Houston: 39 to 37 ½
Washington at New Orleans: 49 to 51 ½
Buffalo at L.A. Chargers: 44 to 41 (QB Change)
New England vs. Oakland: 50 to 54 ½
Philadelphia at Dallas: 47 to 48 ½


The totals market has had a lot of movement this week and the largest move is focused on this week’s game between the Patriots and Raiders from Mexico City. This will be the fifth NFL game played outside of the United States this season and the first four totals from London saw the results end in a stalemate (2-2).


Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu offered his comments on the rise, which appears to have been hit early in the week by the professional bettors. He said, “Yes, mostly sharp money moving this one, and of course the public is piling on. We came back down a point in the last 24 hours, but currently we have more than 80 percent of the handle on the over. Hopefully we’ll see some more under money before kickoff.”


Other ‘over’ bets piling in this week were on the Redskins-Saints and Chiefs-Giants.


“I can certainly see how they’re pushing the Saints-Redskins total up. It probably should have started at 51 out of the gate. Efficient offenses, quick turf…this has all the makings of a shootout,” Cooley said. “Not sure I agree with the Chiefs-Giants movement, but could see the argument for the smart money on the over there. If the Chiefs get up big early, they aren’t really one to keep taking shots.”


Along with those games, Cooley told VegasInsider.com that BookMaker.eu has received extra attention on the ‘under’ in the Detroit-Chicago game but the New England-Oakland ‘over’ could be their largest total liability this season.


Game of the Week


I’m guessing not many pundits expected the Rams-Vikings clash in Week 11 to be a must-see matchup but that’s the case as these divisional leaders square off. A win for Minnesota would go a long way in the playoff race knowing it already notched a win over NFC South leader New Orleans.


Most shops are holding 45 ½ on this game and that’s the second highest total Minnesota has seen this season since their Week 1 matchup (47 ½) versus the aforementioned Saints. The Vikings won that game 29-19 but New Orleans moved the ball up and wound up settling for four field goals.


The Rams enter this game with the top-ranked scoring offense with 32.9 points per game and they’ve been better outside of Los Angeles (37.4 PPG). They’re averaging 388.9 yards per game and more importantly, they lead the NFL in big plays with 24 pass completions of 25-plus yards and 37 rushes of 10-plus yards. The Rams have seen the ‘over’ go 6-3 this season and that includes a 4-0 mark in true road games.


Minnesota enters this game on a 3-0 ‘over’ run and Case Keenum is starting to look like a legit quarterback but he also has some great skilled position players around him. He could have his hands full on Sunday when he faces a Rams defense that hasn’t allowed an opponent to score more than 17 points in their last five games.


Thirty Something


There have been 19 totals close in the thirties this season and the ‘over’ has gone 10-9 in those games. While some of these totals look like clear-cut ‘under’ tickets, the error for margin is so small. Perfect example was last week when the Packers defeated the Bears 23-16 and the total (37 ½) cashed the ‘over’ late with 20 combined points scored in the final 15 minutes.


As of Saturday, it appears we’ll have at least four totals close in this neighborhood on Sunday.


Baltimore at Green Bay: The Ravens enter this game on a 5-0 ‘over’ run and they’ve had five totals close in the thirties this season and they’ve produced a 4-1 lean to the high side in those contests. Baltimore has gone 7-2 off the ‘bye’ under head coach John Harbaugh and the ‘under’ is also 7-2 in those games.


Arizona at Houston: This number continues to drop (37 ½) and could end up being the lowest total posted this season. Unless you’re buying Cardinals QB Blaine Gabbert, I don’t know how you could make an argument for the ‘over’ in this game. Texans QB Tom Savage has started three games this season and Houston has scored a combined 28 points, which helped the ‘under’ easily go 3-0.


Jacksonville at Cleveland: The Browns have only played four true home games and they’ve all gone ‘under’ with the highest combined points coming in Week 1 as Pittsburgh defeated Cleveland 21-18. The Jaguars lead the league in scoring defense (14.9 PPG) and what they’ve done outside of Jacksonville (9.2 PPG) is really impressive.


Cincinnati at Denver: Of the four low totals this week, this matchup gets the best argument for an ‘over’ lean based on what the Broncos (40.3 PPG) have allowed on the scoreboard the last three weeks. Also, Cincy has allowed 25.8 PPG on the road which excludes their 31-7 win over Cleveland. Also, this game fits a solid total system (see below) as well.


Road System


A popular total angle we’ve been following on ‘Total Talk’ is in play this Sunday as Cincinnati visits Denver. What’s the system?


Play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game


The Bengals played at Jacksonville in Week 9 and last Sunday they visited Tennessee.


I know what you’re thinking and while it’s hard to back either Cincinnati or Denver’s offense these days, this angle has done a great job ignoring current form. So far this season, the results are 2-1 to the ‘over’ and that pushes the number up to 43-21 (67%) the last 12 seasons.


Divisional Contests


Through 10 weeks of the season, the ‘under’ has gone 28-13 in divisional contests and that includes a 1-1 mark last week. Similar to Week 10, we only have two divisional matchups on tap in Week 11.


Detroit at Chicago: The ‘under’ has cashed in three straight and four of the last five meetings between the pair. Since QB Mitch Trubisky has been given control of the Bears offense, the team has been held to 20 or less in four of five games and the defense helped with a pick-six in the one outlier. Detroit has watched the ‘over’ cash in two straight and four of the last five and the offense (30, 38) has looked sharp the last two weeks. These teams haven’t had a total this low since 2006 when QBs Rex Grossman and John Kitna were running the shows for the Bears and Lions respectively.


Philadelphia at Dallas: (See Below)


AFC vs. NFC


The ‘over’ went 3-2 in non-conference games last season and through 10 weeks, the ‘over’ holds a 22-17-1 edge. Side bettors should note that the NFC went 5-0 in these games last week but depending where you shop, the AFC is favored in all four matchups this week.


Kansas City at N.Y. Giants: I’m a little surprised this total got pushed up but after watching the Giants defense the last two weeks, it certainly looks like they quit on head coach Ben McAdoo. The other coach in this game, Andy Reid, owns a 16-2 record in regular season games following a bye and that includes a 3-1 mark with KC. The Chiefs have seen the ‘under’ go 3-0-1 with rest under Reid.


Tampa Bay at Miami: Another defense waving the white flag last week was Miami, who allowed 548 total yards in its 45-21 loss at Carolina. The Dolphins have seen the ‘over’ cash in four straight and they’ve allowed 35 PPG during this span. Tampa Bay has watched the ‘under’ connect in its last three and the offense (28 total points) has been a mess. This total screams ‘pass’ to me unless you believe a bad offense trumps a bad defense.


Baltimore at Green Bay: (See Thirty Something)

Arizona at Houston: (See Thirty Something)


Under the Lights


Last week we saw a rare TNF matchup go ‘under’ but the SNF and MNF totals easily went to the high side. Heading into this weekend, the ‘over’ sits at 22-11 and that includes this past Thursday’s outcome between the Steelers and Titans.


Philadelphia at Dallas: The total went 1-1 between the pair last season but the ‘under’ result occurred in Week 17 and the Cowboys played a ton of backups, including Tony Romo. Missing RB Ezekiel Elliot to suspension showed in last week’s 27-7 loss at Atlanta, but the bigger absences for the Cowboys appear to be left tackle Tyron Smith and linebacker Sean Lee. Both are still banged up and expected to miss this key divisional test, which puts more pressure on second-year QB Dak Prescott. The Dallas offense is averaging 27 PPG at home this season but can the unit maintain those numbers without the aforementioned duo? Philadelphia enters this game with the second best scoring offense (31.4 PPG) and its road numbers (26 PPG) have been decent too. The defense (22.8 PPG) has been more suspect outside of Philadelphia, yet entering this matchup with a week of rest could help. However, the Birds dropped a 24-23 decision last season at Detroit with rest and they were also road favorites in that game as well.


Seattle at Atlanta: We’ve seen the ‘over’ cash in in five straight MNF games and this total (45) could be argued either way. Both teams have capable offensive units that can move the football but they also boast solid defensive units although Seattle is playing with a patched up secondary. Last season, they met twice and both games went to the high side. The Seahawks rallied for a 26-24 win at home before the Falcons earned revenge with a 36-20 victory in the playoffs. Both clubs enter this game with 6-3 ‘under’ records.


Fearless Predictions


It’s been a rough run lately and the through 10 weeks of the season, the bankroll has plummeted to a deficit of 10 units ($1,000). Hopefully things balance out and I can get right before the postseason. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!


Best Over: Washington-New Orleans 51 ½


Best Under: Buffalo-L.A. Chargers 41


Best Team Total: Over Dallas Cowboys 21 ½


Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Over 43 Washington-New Orleans
Under 54 Kansas City-N.Y. Giants
Over 31 ½ Cincinnati-Denver

 

[CNOTES]

Gridiron Angles - Week 11
November 18, 2017

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:


-- The Patriots are 10-0 ATS (9.9 ppg) since October 16, 2016 coming off a game where they allowed no more than 18 first downs.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:


-- The Dolphins are 0-16 ATS (-10.7 ppg) since November 16, 2003 as a home favorite coming off a game where they failed to covered by at least seven points.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:


-- The Dolphins are 0-11-1 ATS (-9.12 ppg) since December 2014 as a favorite coming off a game as a road game where Jarvis Landry had at least five receptions.


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:


-- The Ravens are 0-11 OU (-9.5 ppg) since September 18, 2005 as a road favorite where they threw at least 250 yards.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:


-- The Patriots are 10-0 OU (8.8 ppg) since October 2004 coming off a game as a road favorite of more than a TD where they covered.


NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:


-- The Eagles are 0-13 OU (-8.5 ppg) as a favorite off a win as a favorite in which they scored 10+ points more than their season-to-date average.

 

[CNOTES]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 11
November 17, 2017


It's Week 11 in the NFL, one week before Thanksgiving and Black Friday which means bettors are planning for ways to make more money so everyone is happy during Christmas. Some people ask work for more hours, some ask friends to repay a debt and others go the easy route: winning on NFL Sunday. Of course winning is always the goal, but this week they're really serious and they've come strong collectively on two teams as if the pair are the easiest exacta ever offered.


"We've basically got two games that are likely to define how we do on Sunday,' said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "The public are betting like crazy, dialed in on two teams like I've seen before. They absolutely love the Eagles and the next most one-sided has been the Patriots. That's going to be a risky two-teamer for us with parlays, money-line parlays and teasers.


The Eagles are laying up to -5 at Dallas at a few books around town after opening -3.5. Dallas is playing without RB Ezekiel Elliott and OT Tryon Smith with LB Sean Lee doubtful. The Eagles have won seven straight, covering the spread in the last six.


"It's the only two games that stand out," said Simbal, "maybe the Jags would be third because we took a big bet on them and the majority of bettors are simply betting against the Browns no matter who they play.


Simbal noted the Browns have failed to cover in seven of their nine games.


But back to the Patriots and Eagles sides where Simbal started giving examples of just how one-sided those two games are.


"We've had a 7-to-1 ratio on tickets written with the Patriots and for every $230 bet on the Patriots were getting a dollar on the Raiders. It's a larger disparity in the other game where the Eagles have a 19-to-1 ratio in tickets written, $35,000 bet on the Eagles and just $410 on the Cowboys."

And that's with no large bets through Friday afternoon. They'll take six times more action over the weekend, and although it's a small sample size of action through five days, it's very accurate with what kind of betting patterns are about to happen. Nothing is going to change the opinion of the masses in the next three days of wagering.


William Hill sports books reported Thursday night that 57 percent of all their NFL Sunday side action was on the Eagles-Cowboys game with 99 percent of the cash siding with the Eagles. William Hill's top bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich said the majority of that action came from one regular bettor who gets extended limits. This particular bettor has bet large money on the Eagles at several different books, including John Avello's Wynn. He's not affiliated with any sharp group, but has been betting most of the football season at several books. So the books are getting his big money on the same side the public is piling on with. this game sticks out like a sore thumb.


Avello's Wynn sports book has a different clientele than most books with their weekend results mostly being about how well three of four of their house players (Whales) fare. The public sides rarely harm them like other books on and off the strip. It's all about the big cash and Avello is staring at eight big decisions already.


"We have a player who has made one play in a bunch of games that make those decisions our biggest," said Avello. "He took the Bears (+3 vs Lions), Chiefs (-10.5 at Giants), Packers (+2 vs Ravens), Rams (+2.5 at Vikings), Browns (+8 vs Jaguars), Redskins (+8 at Saints), Chargers (-5 vs Bills) and Eagles."


Avello liked one of the plays his VIP made and made a good case with the Redskins getting +8 at New Orleans.


"The Saints lost their first two to playoff teams and have now won seven straight (7-0 ATS), and while their offense and defense both look vastly improved, I'm skeptical a bit on them just because the list of teams they beat on that seven-game streak were teams like Tampa, Chicago and Miami. Maybe Carolina is a playoff team, and the Saints beat them, but the thing the Redskins can do most of those teams can't do consistently is score. They went on the road and beat the Seahawks and Rams." Avello labeled two teams as being difficult weekly to post a number on.


"The Chargers are tough to get a proper rating on because they're involved in so many close games," he said. "The Redskins are similar in that way. I think the Chargers will be a popular public team this week just because of how poorly Buffalo has looked in their last two and benching Tyrod Taylor for a rookie QB."


Taylor isn't hurt, but apparently he's getting credit for a defense that allowed 34 points to the Jets and 47 at home to the Saints in their last two losses. Nathan Peterman, the rookie from Pitt, will make his first career start on the road, which rarely turns out well for the rookie. The Chargers have been bet up from -4 to as high as -5.5.


When summing up what his 107 sports books needed for a profitable day, Bogdanovich made it seem like the same risk sheet with the same teams on it is happening every week.


"We know now who they're betting every week, we just need some help from the other teams," he said. "It's getting to be a regular thing the past few weeks where we need the Browns and Giants to cover and also who ever is playing the Eagles and Patriots. The Rams are quickly joining that company, but not as much this week because the Vikings are respected and at home."


The Vikings have been steady 2.5 or 2-point home favorites all week against the Rams. The Rams have won all four road games with the Over also hitting in all of them. Minnesota has gone 21-6 ATS in their last 27 home games. Something's got to give in this match-up.


Good luck this week, everyone. Go make some Black Friday cash.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday's Top 5 Wagers
November 17, 2017


Sometimes you have to sprinkle the most logical plays in with the most illogical wagers you could possible imagine. This week, we’re advocating for plays against the second best team in the NFC, the worst rookie quarterback so far…and Andy Dalton. Yup, it’s becoming that kind of season. Dare to dance with the devil?


Don’t worry, we have some low hanging fruit for you to chew on as well to pad your parlays or generate some solid standalone potential for you wallet in Week 11 NFL betting.


Minnesota Vikings -2.5 over Los Angeles Rams


By every stretch of the imagination, the Rams look like the better team to back. That’s fine if you think that, but their season deserves a deeper look. And this is coming from a team that’s touting Todd Gurley as the MVP of the season, so when we say that this is hard to write, we mean it.


The Rams have beaten Indianapolis, San Francisco, Arizona, NYG and Houston this year in that order. They’ve also been fortunate enough to face Dallas without linebacker Sean Lee. Their toughest games have come against teams running with healthy starters, holding a bit of momentum.


Cue losses to Seattle and Washington by the Rams. At this point, both of those teams are really hard done by and that’s all fair. The season is rough and the game is cruel. But Minnesota has a staggeringly good offensive attack and one of the top rated defences in the league. This is as tough a test as the Rams have faced all season, and there’s simply no proof that they’re genuinely up for it.


As for the Vikings, they’ve been living a healthy diet of wins by war of attrition. They ram rodded the Redskins last weekend and have found a way to make Case Keenum an effective starter. But all of this rides on the backs of their defence, which is the 3rd best in rush defence and 5th in points against with just 18.3 allowed on average.


If this is a war of attrition, I don’t know what Goff is capable of and I’m willing to bet that the Rams will be shell shocked by the uptick in competitive play that the Vikings provide compared to the recent canon fodder that he’s faced.


Chicago Bears +3 over Detroit Lions


The Detroit Lions are a team that we want to succeed whether we admit it or not. Every time they win a game, we get excited and launch our support behind them and it’s simply not justified. Detroit looked great while whipping the Browns and Packers, but who hasn’t lately?


Chicago suffered a defeat to Green Bay just last week so this pick doesn’t seem like it makes a ton of sense. But you’re betting on Chicago’s defence here. Akiem Hicks is a monster who has recorded 7.0 sacks on the year, and this team is simply great at collapsing the pocket. Without a solid, north-south running game to offset the pass rush, Stafford is going to get crumpled up like a junk food receipt.


I also genuinely like what I’ve seen from the Bears offensively as well. Trubisky has his head back on his shoulders after running for his life, and Dontrelle Inman looks like a serviceable, top receiver considering who he’s competing against on the Bears. Darius Slay is a problem, but Detroit’s lacking run defence can also get floored by Jordan Howard and this very underrated offensive line. Love the Bears here as a pick against the grain.


Los Angeles Chargers -4.5 over Buffalo Bills


After allowing six touchdowns on the ground to New Orleans, the Bills visit the Chargers and ex-coach Anthony Lynn. One of the best known qualities about Lynn is his penchant for creating exciting running games. He led the Bills to the top-ranked rushing attacks for two straight seasons, and did the same with the Jets in 2014. In other words, if there’s a guy who knows how to splice up the Bills, it’s Anthony Lynn.


The Chargers have a lot to make up for after giving a game away to the Jacksonville Jaguars, but they’ll find some reprieve by only having to deal with Nathan Peterman. As we saw last week, the turnover-happy Chargers’ secondary is not to be messed with. Los Angeles is still 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games and worth banging on in a matchup with a fifth round quarterback making his first start for no apparent reason.


Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 over Denver Broncos


The Bengals are by and large the most unpredictable team in the entire league. Gamblers have long known that they’re a laughing stock because of some awful coaching, but there’s still world class talent on this team. At the oddest of times, the Bengals can put together really strong efforts. When we say “odd”, it’s worth pointing out that they’re 1-3 ATS at home and 3-2 ATS when travelling.


Denver is as big of a bet-off team as they come. At just 2-6-1 ATS on the year, they’re one of the worst bets there is, and this is a bad matchup no matter which was you slice it. The Bengals have a good secondary, and the unimaginative play calling of Denver is going to get them in to an unexpected dogfight that they can’t win.


Any positive inklings that we had about the Broncos in terms of defence has vanished in to thin air. Despite being ranked 4th in total yards against, they allow an astronomical amount of points by comparison. They rank 29th with 26.6 points against on average, which more than explains their brutal 0-5 SU and ATS streak.


If you want to know how bad they are in a nutshell, the Bengals are more trustworthy than the Broncos. That’s how disdainful things have gotten in the Rocky Mountains.

Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 over Dallas Cowboys


This is a reminder that there’s no reason to get cute with the Dallas Cowboys. Without Ezekiel Elliot, they’re a bad football team. What’s becoming a known quantity about head coach Jason Garrett is that he can’t adjust to injuries. At full strength, the Cowboys are as good as anyone. Without their star running back, they’re as pedestrian as you or me. It’s seriously awful to watch.


We don’t normally write about the Eagles in this space because there’s no need to. You should be betting on them hand over fist with their 7-2 ATS record. This line is criminally low simply because the oddsmakers expect a huge public backing for the Dallas Cowboys. There’s also the old adage of “NFC East games are nightmares”.


No matter what, bet the Eagles. It’s suicide to throw a prayer up and hope that the Dallas Cowboys can play competent football after getting eviscerated by the Atlanta Falcons. America’s Team is depleted, banged up and ready for slaughter.

 

[CNOTES]

Offensive ROY Odds
November 17, 2017

Gauging Value in NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Futures


After Week 1, it looked like the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds were a done deal. But in the last month, consensus favorite Kareem Hunt has tailored off a bit and allowed the rest of his explosive class to catch up to him. Here’s an update on the Rookie of the Year odds at BetOnline.ag and where some strong stash investments lie.


Kareem Hunt (-200) – Kansas City Chiefs


Let’s start at the top, where Hunt retains his title as the favorite for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year despite some recent struggles. Overshadowing the downturn in his production is what he’s managed to accomplish in steady production. Hunt is currently second to Le’Veon Ball in rushing yards this season.


Almost all of that production came in the first five weeks of the season, where he went over 100 yards in four games while scoring all six of his touchdowns. In the past four games, he’s averaged just 47.8 yards per game and has been held scoreless for six straight weeks.


It’s not that Hunt is a bad player, but teams have figured him out to a certain extent. The Cowboys bottled him up and the rest of the Chiefs offence, and Hunt failed to elude the Denver front-seven as well. In short, he’s had some bad matchups over the last four games which might excuse his production.


But it’s also worth pointing out that Hunt has never ever been on a stage this big for this long. That’s a byproduct of playing for a school like Toledo. Hunt deserves to be the frontrunner in this market, but his production needs a big jump if he’s to fend off some of his fellow draftees.


Next Game: Kansas City -10 at NYG


Leonard Fournette (+450) – Jacksonville Jaguars


It’s hard to say that Fournette is the most talented rookie to come out of the 2017 draft class, but he’s pretty damn close. What’s killing his value overall is that he’s missed two games due to injury and team misconduct (he missed the team photo and that’s apparently a sin). Fournette is averaging 89.6 yards per game, which is slightly better than Hunt’s 88.9 yards per game. Had he played a full slate, Fournette would be an amazing value play but the missed games is going to hamper him. He’s also a risky play given that his ankle is shaky. Wouldn’t regret laying down money behind him, but he’s certainly not a lock.


Next Game: Jacksonville -7.5 at Cleveland


Christian McAffery (+3300) – Carolina Panthers


You want to know how insulting these odds are? Chicago Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has the same odds for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. That’s totally unfair.


McAffery gets dinged because his numbers don’t jump off the page, but his recent uptick in production is vital here. The Panthers jettisoned Kelvin Benjamin (for no apparent reason other than not wanting to pay him) and we all saw what the likes of Curtis Samuel can do to help move the chains. In the end, McAffery is a running-back but he’s also leading all rookies with 57 receptions this year for 433 yards. To put those catches in perspective, he ranks 6th in all of football.


The stats for McAffery are concerning given that he’s only totaled 639 yards on offence, and has yet to break off one of those dazzling kick return highlights that he submitted weekly at Stanford.


However, he’s a stat nerds dream bet. McAffery’s usage is peculiar because Ron Rivera is a weird play caller, and that’s really going to be what makes McAffery a runner-up here. The Panthers have toned down the “big play” part of their offence and gone to a dink-and-dunk variation that unfortunately limits McAffery’s ability to break out in to open space. His longest carry this year has been for just 17 yards, and his longest reception went for 37.


Where McAffery’s value spikes, however, is in touchdowns. He’s scored three of his five total scores in the past two weeks, and if he rips off a season-ending barrage of scores that leads all rookies then he’s undeniably in the mix. At 33-to-1 there’s probably no better value play from a payout standpoint. You’re right to ignore him for a lot of reasons, but those who are in love with his ability wouldn’t be crucified for lobbing a flier at a potentially massive payout.


Next Game: BYE WEEK


Alvin Kamara (+250) – New Orleans Saints


Nobody will openly say it, but Kamara is everything we expected McAffery to be. He has 42 receptions on the year for 373 yards and has added 417 on the ground. Kamara is simply a huge producer in all the right places, and his team is one of the best in the league right now. What makes Kamara’s production even more amazing is that he’s accomplishing all of this as a backup running back behind a resurgent Mark Ingram. Kamara is by and large the deserving second-favorite, but it’s impossible to gauge his production unless you consider that he’s been devilishly consistent all year long. I just don’t know if he stands out on his own team enough to warrant a play.


Next Game: Washington at New Orleans -7.5


Evan Engram (+2000) – New York Giants
If there has been one bright spot on the Giants this year, it’s Evan Engram. He has quickly become one of the best tight ends in football and has notched 40 catches on 72 targets with 443 yards receiving and 5 touchdowns. And while this is all grand, Engram is on the worst team in the entire league meaning that nobody’s going to care what he does. Engram will save your fantasy football season, but he’s not going to save the Giants so venturing on a 200-to-1 play like this is basically idiotic.


Next Game: Kansas City -10 at NYG

 

[CNOTES]

SNF - Eagles at Cowboys
November 17, 2017


Just who is America's real team?


If walking into a Las Vegas sports book or two this weekend, do a random survey with some of the ticket writers and ask them who who has been America's most popular NFL team this season with the bettors. "America's Team" based on betting popularity. Yes, that's how it should always be surveyed. It may have been the Cowboys (5-4 straight up, 5-4 against the spread) last season, but there's no doubt that this season it's all about the Eagles.


What's crazy about the Eagles (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS), as they head into Dallas Sunday night for Week 11 action, is that MVP candidate Carson Wentz (23 TD, 5 picks) and the Eagles seem to be getting better every week. They have the best record in the NFL, ride a seven game won streak and have covered inflated spreads in their last six. The bandwagon gets crowded awfully quick when bettors keep cashing weekly on the same team.


There's a Super Bowl feel to them and Wentz has a likable quality that every common man seems to like. He's a lunch-pail QB, tough and rugged. They're a fun team and they are the NFC's favorite to win the Super Bowl at 5-to-1 odds.


But let's look deeper at who they really are and who they played. Their only loss was 27-20 at Kansas City (-4). After that, they beat the Giants (+5) by 3, won 26-24 at the Chargers (-2), 34-7 against Arizona (+6), 28-23 at Carolina (-3) and then three straight home wins against Washington (+5), San Francisco (+13) and Denver (+7). The seven-game winning streak was basically against a bunch of teams going nowhere. Maybe Carolina is a playoff team, but all the others were exposed as poor teams before the Eagles put their stamp on it.


So maybe this is a spot for Dallas to step up at home and pull off the upset win. Even without star RB Ezekiel Elliott (suspended), the Cowboys still figure to be a stiffer test than those teams in the seven-game win streak. Their rating this week is only a half-point lower than Carolina and several points higher than the other six.


The Cowboys will need an inspired defensive performance and will likely be without LB Sean Lee, who takes the defense to a different level. QB Dak Prescott is having a stellar year with 16 TD passes and only 4 interceptions. He also using his legs often averaging 7.4 yards per run and 5 TDs. It's going to be squarely on Prescott to get this win. The Falcons defense showed last week they didn't respect Elliott's back-up Alfred Morris and didn't feel need to stack the line like teams try to do to Elliott. That's why this is all on Prescott, and it would be nice if WR Dez Bryant showed up with some sizzle and grab his first 100 yard game of the season.

LINE MOVEMENT


We have quite a shift on this one. In May, CG Technology sports books in Las Vegas posted spreads on every NFL game, Weeks 1-16. This game was supposed to Cowboys -7. When they re-opened the game on Sunday night they posted Eagles -3 -120 and it was quickly bet up to -3 -125. On Tuesday, they had enough risk to force a move to -3.5 and on Wednesday evening they moved to -4. The total at 48 hasn't moved and the money-line has Philly -185 with the Cowboys getting +165 as a home dog.


ROBERTS' RATING


The Cowboys' rating took a major blow following their 27-7 loss at Atlanta last week. They took the hit for poor play as well as not having Elliott, who has a player rating that is open to much debate. It's rare to see a non-QB player be worth 2 points, but the dynamic Elliott is certainly worth it. So in one week, I dropped the Cowboys just over 2.5 points. The Eagles rating is 1-point higher than it was for the Week 9 game against Denver because of great play, but more about public perception. So coming into this game, I have the Eagles 3.5-points better than Dallas on a neutral field and I give the Cowboys just under 2.5-points for home field. My number says Eagles -1 and a popularity tax has to be added just to stay ahead of the betting curve. Maybe -2.5 or -3 is the better number consider bettors believe what they saw last, and the Falcons sure did a number on Dallas.


RECENT MEETINGS


The road team has gone 8-3 ATS in the past 11 meetings, however, the home team held serve in both meetings last season to end a 6-0 road team run. The Eagles 27-13 win in Week 17 last season is a little misleading because Mark Sanchez took the most snaps as Dallas rested starters having clinched everything already. In the Cowboys' home game on October 30, they went to overtime to win 29-23 and cover the 5-point spread.

SUNDAY NIGHT PROPS (WESTGATE)


Total Passing yards by Carson Wentz: 260.5
Total TD passes by Carson Wentz: 2
Total receiving yards by Alshon Jeffery: 63.5
Total completions by Dak Prescott: 21.5
Total TD passes by Dak Prescott: 1.5 OV -130
Total sacks both teams combined: 5


NEXT WEEK


The Westgate SuperBook posted Week 12 spreads on Tuesday and listed the Cowboys as 4-point home favorites against the Chargers on Thanksgiving Day. The Eagles get another hefty number, this one being 11.5-point home favorites against the Bears.


DIVSION ODDS


With Philadelphia's three-game lead in the NFC East, the Westgate has taken down odds to win the division just because it seems certain the Eagles will win. When the odds first opened in May, the Cowboys were 5/4 favorites, followed by the Giants (11/4), Eagles (7/2) and Redskins (9/2).


SUPER BOWL ODDS


When the odds first opened in January, you could have had the Eagles at 60-to-1 to win their first Super Bowl. Now with the best record in the NFL, they're down to 5/1 and considered the favorite among NFC team. The Saints are next at 6/1. On the AFC side, the Patriots are the 7/2 favorites followed by the Steelers (4/1). The Cowboys opened at 10/1 as one of the NFC favorites, but at 5-4 they're not even in line for a playoff spot in the competitive NFC. If thinking they can shake things up and make a run with Elliott down the stretch, they're currently 40/1.

 

[CNOTES]

Pick Six - Week 11
November 17, 2017


Week 10 Record: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS


Overall Record: 30-30 SU, 26-33-1 ATS

Rams at Vikings (-2, 46) – 1:00 PM EST


Los Angeles
Record: 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS, 6-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1


The Rams continue to be one of the top stories in the NFL this season after finishing off their fourth consecutive win last week. Los Angeles routed Houston, 33-7 to easily cover as 12-point favorites, while allowing 17 points or fewer in five straight games. The road numbers are ridiculous for L.A. from a scoring standpoint by averaging 38.5 points per game, while posting a 5-0 record in games played away from the Coliseum, which includes a 33-0 shutout of the Cardinals in London.


Minnesota
Record: 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS, 5-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1


The Vikings are rolling as well by running off five straight wins, including a 38-30 triumph at Washington as one-point underdogs last Sunday. Case Keenum tossed four touchdown passes for Minnesota, as his time as starting quarterback may be running out with Teddy Bridgewater activated last week off the injured list. Minnesota’s defense continues to step up at home by allowing 19 points or less in all five games at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings knocked off the Rams in their last meeting in 2015 as two-point favorites, 21-18 in overtime.


Best Bet: Rams +2


Ravens (-2, 38) at Packers – 1:00 PM EST


Baltimore
Record: 4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS, 6-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1


The Ravens are still hanging around in the AFC Wild Card race in spite of losing three of their last four games. Baltimore is back following the open week as the Ravens try to rebound from a 23-20 loss at Tennessee in Week 9 to push as three-point underdogs. John Harbaugh’s team is riding a five-game OVER streak, while eclipsing the OVER in four consecutive road contests. The Ravens lost a 19-17 home decision to the Packers the last time they hooked up in 2013 as Joe Flacco threw for 342 yards and two touchdowns in the defeat.


Green Bay
Record: 5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS, 6-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1


The Packers finally broke through the win column without Aaron Rodgers in the lineup by beating the Bears at Soldier Field, 23-16 as 4 ½-point underdogs. Quarterback Brett Hundley helped put a halt to Green Bay’s three-game losing streak by hitting Davante Adams on a 19-yard touchdown pass in the fourth quarter to give the Pack a 23-13 lead and a season sweep of Chicago. The Packers are looking to avoid losing three straight games at Lambeau Field for the first time since Mike McCarthy’s first season as head coach in 2006.


Best Bet: Ravens -2


Jaguars (-7.5, 37) at Browns – 1:00 PM EST


Jacksonville
Record: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 5-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1


The Jaguars continue their push towards a playoff berth for the first time since 2007 after edging the Chargers in overtime last Sunday, 20-17. Even though Jacksonville failed to cover as five-point favorites, the Jags’ defense kept up its dominating ways by allowing 17 points or fewer for the sixth time this season. In one of their three losses, the Jaguars gave up two non-offensive touchdowns to the Rams, while holding L.A. to 249 yards. Jacksonville has won in each of its past two meetings with Cleveland, including a 24-6 rout of the Browns in 2014.


Cleveland
Record: 0-9 SU, 2-7 ATS, 5-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: Really?


The Browns still haven’t broken through the win column this season despite being tied with the Lions last week heading into the fourth quarter. Detroit outscored Cleveland, 14-0 in the fourth quarter to pull away in a 38-24 victory, while dropping the Browns to 1-7 ATS the last eight games since covering the opener against the Steelers. Cleveland’s offense has been dreadful at home by scoring 18 points or fewer in four games at FirstEnergy Stadium, while losing 17 of its past 19 contests in northern Ohio.


Best Bet: Jaguars -7.5


Redskins at Saints (-8, 51) – 1:00 PM EST


Washington
Record: 4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS, 6-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1


The Redskins have failed to find consistency this season as they have yet to win three straight games, but haven’t lose three consecutive contests either. Washington followed up an impressive 17-14 victory at Seattle with a 38-30 home loss to Minnesota to remain under the .500 mark. Jay Gruden’s squad owns a 9-3 ATS record in their last 12 as a road underdog, including a 2-2 ATS ledger this season. The two covers came in outright wins over the Rams and Seahawks, while losing a close game at Kansas City and dropping a 10-point decision at Philadelphia.


New Orleans
Record: 7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS, 5-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1


The Saints are one of two teams currently riding a seven-game winning streak (Eagles the other), but New Orleans has managed to cover the number in all seven victories. New Orleans crushed Buffalo last Sunday by scoring six rushing touchdowns in a 47-10 rout of the Bills, while limiting six of its past seven opponents to 17 points or less. The Saints last faced the Redskins in 2015 as Washington blew the doors of Washington, 47-14, while Washington has covered five straight meetings with New Orleans dating back to 2006.


Best Bet: Redskins +8


Bengals at Broncos (-2 ½, 39) – 4:25 PM EST


Cincinnati
Record: 3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS, 5-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 250/1


The Bengals won two straight following an 0-3 start, but Cincinnati’s momentum has faded recently by losing three of the past four games. The only win in this stretch came by one point against the Colts, while getting outgained by 100 yards in losses at Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Tennessee. The Bengals dropped to 1-4 away from Paul Brown Stadium following last Sunday’s 24-20 defeat to the Titans, while Cincinnati owns a 3-6 ATS mark as a road underdog since the start of 2016.


Denver
Record: 3-6 SU, 2-6-1 ATS, 6-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1


It’s hard to find offenses more dreadful than the Broncos, who have broken the 20-point mark only once since a Week 2 blowout of the Cowboys. Denver’s defense has suffered as well by getting torched for 92 points the last two weeks (although the Patriots scored on a kickoff return last week). The Broncos are on an 0-5 SU/ATS stretch, but Denver has won five of the past six meetings with Cincinnati dating back to 2009, including a 29-17 victory at Paul Brown Stadium last season.


Best Bet: Broncos -2 ½


Patriots (-7, 55) vs. Raiders in Mexico – 4:25 PM EST


New England
Record: 7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS, 5-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 3/1


The Patriots blasted the Broncos last Sunday in Denver, 41-16 to easily cash as seven-point favorites. In preparation for their trip to Mexico City, New England practiced this past week in Colorado to acclimate to the high altitude, but the Pats have no problem playing away from home this season. Bill Belichick’s team owns a perfect 4-0 record on the highway, while winning 13 straight games away from Gillette Stadium since the start of 2016.


Oakland
Record: 4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS, 5-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1


The Raiders are back from the bye week as Oakland has won two of three since a four-game slide to creep within one game of the .500 mark. Oakland held off Miami as three-point favorites, 27-24 in Week 9, although the Dolphins scored a late touchdown to manage a push. The Raiders can’t win a low-scoring game against the Patriots as Oakland owns a an 0-5 record this season when posting 17 points or less, while all four of its victories have come when scoring at least 26 points. Oakland has dropped four straight meetings with New England since 2005, while failing to cover three times.


Best Bet: Patriots -7

 

[CNOTES]

NFL notebook: Dolphins waive LB Maualuga after arrest
November 18, 2017


The Miami Dolphins waived Rey Maualuga on Saturday, hours after the linebacker was arrested on a misdemeanor battery charge.


Court records in Miami-Dade County reveal that Maualuga was arrested after an early morning incident at a downtown Miami nightclub, allegedly involving a dispute over a bar bill.


Police said Maualuga began upset and refused to pay a $40 bar tab before grabbing an unidentified person by the throat and shoving him at Club E11even, the Miami Herald reported. The 30-year-old was escorted out of the club and arrested by police.


Maualuga recorded 23 tackles in six games during his first season with the Dolphins (4-5) after playing eight years with the Cincinnati Bengals.


--Seattle Seahawks strong safety Kam Chancellor is expected to miss the remainder of the season with a neck injury, according to multiple reports.


The news comes after the team lost star cornerback Richard Sherman to a torn Achilles in last week's "Thursday Night Game" win against the Arizona Cardinals. Sherman was placed on injured reserve and had surgery to repair his Achilles on Wednesday.


Chancellor, an eight-year veteran, left the Seahawks' 22-16 win on Nov. 9 with a neck injury on the Cardinals' final possession.


--The Baltimore Ravens activated running back Danny Woodhead from injured reserve/designated for return.


Woodhead has recovered from a hamstring injury he sustained on the opening drive of the Ravens' Week 1 win against the Bengals at Cincinnati. On that possession, he had three catches for 33 yards and one carry for 4 yards before leaving with the injury.


Woodhead's return could be a potential boost for the Ravens' 30th-ranked offense.


--The Cincinnati Bengals promoted linebacker Hardy Nickerson from their practice squad and waived veteran defensive tackle Pat Sims in a corresponding move.


Cincinnati cut Nickerson, a rookie out of the University of Illinois, on Tuesday and re-signed him to the practice squad Wednesday after he cleared waivers.


Nickerson has played in seven games for the Bengals this season, making two tackles on special teams. He also spent Weeks 4 and 5 on the team's practice squad.


--The Denver Broncos signed tight end Austin Traylor to their active roster and waived/injured (shoulder) tight end A.J. Derby.


The 6-foot-3, 255-pound Traylor is a first-year player from the University of Wisconsin who has been on Denver's practice squad since Week 16 in 2016. He entered the NFL as a college free agent with Dallas on May 17, 2016, and spent his rookie season competing on practice squads with the Cowboys, San Diego Chargers, New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens before coming to Denver.


Derby appeared in 15 games (four starts) with the Broncos after being acquired in a trade with the Patriots on Oct. 25, 2016. In nine games this season, Derby recorded 19 catches for 224 yards and two touchdowns.

 

[CNOTES]

Falcons RB Freeman out vs. Seahawks
November 18, 2017


FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. (AP) Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman will sit out Monday night's game at Seattle while recovering from his second concussion of the season.


Freeman went out on the second play of last weekend's victory over Dallas after taking a shot to the head. The Falcons ruled him out Saturday.


Tevin Coleman will start in place of Freeman, while Terron Ward moves up to serve as the top backup.


Freeman, the league's highest-paid running back, spent the last two weeks of the preseason in concussion protocol. He also suffered a concussion during the 2015 season.


Freeman and Coleman have formed a productive tandem, combining for more than 900 yards rushing and seven touchdowns this season.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Injury Report
November 17, 2017

ARIZONA CARDINALS at HOUSTON TEXANS


ARIZONA CARDINALS


--Out: DT Corey Peters (ankle)


--Questionable: WR John Brown (back), C A.Q. Shipley (shoulder), QB Drew Stanton (knee), T John Wetzel (back)


HOUSTON TEXANS


--Out: LB Dylan Cole (hamstring), T Julien Davenport (shoulder), WR Will Fuller V (ribs)


--Questionable: RB Alfred Blue (hamstring), DE Joel Heath (knee), C Greg Mancz (knee, chest), WR Chris Thompson (knee)


BALTIMORE RAVENS at GREEN BAY PACKERS


BALTIMORE RAVENS


--Doubtful: T Ronnie Stanley (concussion)


--Questionable: TE Nick Boyle (toe), WR Michael Campanaro (shoulder), S Chuck Clark (thigh), CB Jimmy Smith (Achilles), RB Terrance West (calf), LB Tim Williams (thigh)


GREEN BAY PACKERS

--Out: T Bryan Bulaga (knee), S Morgan Burnett (groin), RB Aaron Jones (knee), RB Ty Montgomery (ribs)


--Questionable: LB Ahmad Brooks (back), DT Quinton Dial (chest), CB Kevin King (shoulder), G Lucas Patrick (back)


BUFFALO BILLS at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS


BUFFALO BILLS


--Out: T Cordy Glenn (foot, ankle), G John Miller (ankle), RB Mike Tolbert (hamstring)


--Questionable: TE Charles Clay (knee), DE Jerry Hughes (shin, calf), WR Jordan Matthews (knee)

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS


--Out: T Joe Barksdale (foot)


--Doubtful: LB James Onwualu (quadriceps), LB Hayes Pullard (neck)


--Questionable: DE Chris McCain (quadriceps), QB Philip Rivers (concussion)

CINCINNATI BENGALS at DENVER BRONCOS


CINCINNATI BENGALS


--Out: CB Adam Jones (concussion), LB Kevin Minter (elbow), DT Pat Sims (calf)


--Questionable: CB William Jackson (toe), WR Brandon LaFell (knee)

DENVER BRONCOS


--Out: TE A.J. Derby (shoulder), TE Jeff Heuerman (knee)


--Questionable: WR Cody Latimer (knee, Achilles), T Donald Stephenson (calf)


DETROIT LIONS at CHICAGO BEARS


DETROIT LIONS


--Out: DE Ezekiel Ansah (back), RB Dwayne Washington (hip)


--Questionable: S Don Carey (knee), LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin (ankle)

CHICAGO BEARS


--Questionable: CB Bryce Callahan (knee), T Tom Compton (ankle), S DeAndre Houston-Carson (illness), TE Dion Sims (illness), LB Danny Trevathan (calf)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at CLEVELAND BROWNS


JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS


--Out: WR Arrelious Benn (knee), WR Allen Hurns (ankle)


--Questionable: LB Blair Brown (hamstring), RB Leonard Fournette (ankle), G Patrick Omameh (quadriceps), T Jermey Parnell (knee)

CLEVELAND BROWNS


--Questionable: T Shon Coleman (concussion), CB Jamar Taylor (ankle), C JC Tretter (shoulder, knee)


KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at NEW YORK GIANTS


KANSAS CITY CHIEFS


--Out: DE Allen Bailey (knee), LB Dee Ford (back), LB Tamba Hali (knee), WR Albert Wilson (hamstring)

NEW YORK GIANTS


--Out: LB B.J. Goodson (ankle), G Justin Pugh (back)


--Doubtful: LB Kelvin Sheppard (groin)


--Questionable: DT Damon Harrison (ankle), LB Devon Kennard (quadriceps)


LOS ANGELES RAMS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS


LOS ANGELES RAMS


--Out: RB Malcolm Brown (knee)


--Questionable: TE Derek Carrier (hamstring), CB Troy Hill (hamstring)


MINNESOTA VIKINGS


--Out: T Mike Remmers (concussion), S Andrew Sendejo (groin, hamstring)


--Questionable: DE Everson Griffen (foot), DE Brian Robison (back)


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at OAKLAND RAIDERS


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS


--Out: C David Andrews (illness), T Marcus Cannon (ankle), WR Chris Hogan (shoulder), WR Matt Slater (hamstring)


--Questionable: WR Danny Amendola (knee), TE Martellus Bennett (shoulder, hamstring), DT Malcom Brown (ankle), DE Cassius Marsh (shoulder), CB Eric Rowe (groin)

OAKLAND RAIDERS

--Doubtful: CB David Amerson (foot)


--Questionable: G Gabe Jackson (ankle), LB Cory James (knee), T Marshall Newhouse (hip, quadriceps), RB Jamize Olawale (hamstring)


TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at MIAMI DOLPHINS


TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS


--Out: DE William Gholston (neck), CB Vernon Hargreaves (hamstring), QB Jameis Winston (right shoulder)


MIAMI DOLPHINS

--Questionable: DE William Hayes (knee), RB Senorise Perry (knee), WR Kenny Stills (back), S Michael Thomas (knee)


WASHINGTON REDSKINS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS


WASHINGTON REDSKINS

--Out: C Spencer Long (knees), WR Terrelle Pryor (ankle), TE Jordan Reed (hamstring)


--Questionable: LB Zach Brown (Achilles), CB Quinton Dunbar (illness), WR Ryan Grant (concussion), S DeAngelo Hall (knee), DE Matt Ioannidis (hand), DE Anthony Lanier (knee), G Shawn Lauvao (stinger), S Montae Nicholson (shoulder), T Ty Nsekhe (core muscle), TE Niles Paul (concussion), WR Brian Quick (concussion), G Brandon Scherff (knee), T Trent Williams (knee)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS


--Questionable: LB A.J. Klein (ankle), S Kenny Vaccaro (groin)


PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at DALLAS COWBOYS (Sunday night)


PHILADELPHIA EAGLES


--Questionable: WR Alshon Jeffery (ankle)

DALLAS COWBOYS


--Out: K Dan Bailey (right groin), LB Sean Lee (hamstring)


--Questionable: DT Maliek Collins (foot), S Jeff Heath (concussion), T Tyron Smith (back, groin), TE Geoff Swaim (knee)

 

[CNOTES]

Monday's Best Bet
November 17, 2017


NFL Week 11 MNF Betting Preview
Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks


Monday Night Football brings us a good showdown on paper with the Atlanta Falcons in Seattle to take on the Seahawks, as both teams look to continue their push towards the playoffs.


Seattle will likely be there for January football, but Atlanta still has some work to do at just 5-4 SU, and with their NFC South division boasting some very good teams like New Orleans and Carolina this year, it's going to be a grind for the Falcons to even have a shot at defending their NFC crown.


Seattle (-3); Total set at 44.5


The Atlanta Falcons have people believing in them again after they dismantled the Dallas Cowboys a week ago, but going into Seattle is never an easy place to play as a visitor. The Falcons do catch a bit of a break with Seattle's secondary quite banged up now that CB Richard Sherman is done for the year, but taking advantage of that on the field might be easier said then done.


That being said, VegasInsider.com currently shows that the belief in the Falcons is definitely back as more than 85% of the ML action is on Atlanta, while about 65% of the point spread tickets submitted already have bettors taking the points.


I'm not sure if those percentages were hold by the time we hit Monday, but the sound of having a public underdog on MNF should make even your bankroll a little squeamish. Still to this day, recreational bettors treat MNF games as their last chance to either increase their profits or get out of the hole for the week and to follow that mentality with an underdog that the majority like is scary.


There is no question the Falcons are a live 'dog in this spot, especially with Seattle already losing twice at home this year, but handicapping the market rather then the game itself may be a bit of a better approach to this game.


All year Atlanta has been a great team to use market research on as they've been unable to cash point spread tickets when everyone believes in them, and has come through when support has waned. The Falcons are just 3-6 ATS this year and all six of those defeats came when the market was high on the Falcons.


Most notably was Atlanta's last appearance in primetime when they were 3-point underdogs @ New England on SNF a few weeks back in a Super Bowl 51 rematch and they ended up getting blown out 23-7. That game from a market perspective has quite a few similarities to this week's game in Seattle and maybe the result ends up being the same.


The Falcons three ATS wins are notable as well as there was last week's win over Dallas when most were backing a Cowboys squad after Atlanta had not covered in five straight games and coughed up their chance against Carolina the week before. The other two wins were a SNF home game against Green Bay when Aaron Rodgers was still slinging it and had the majority of support, and a 30-26 win @ Detroit the following week when the Lions lost on the final play of the game with a controversial ruling on being just short of the goal line. Are you starting to see where I'm going with this?


Seattle is in a division race themselves as they try and hunt down the Rams for 1st in the NFC West, and they do have the added benefit of some extra rest here having not played since last Thursday.


They brought in DB Byron Maxwell to aid with the Sherman loss, and Maxwell is a guy who's struggled since he left Seattle a few years ago and hoping to find success in this system once again. Bringing in a guy who knows Seattle's defensive system well and is as physical as Maxwell is should help the Seahawks deal with the likes of Julio Jones and Mohammed Sanu in this one too.


And while Seattle's homefield advantage may not be as dominant as it was during the heyday of this core back in 2013 and 2014, they've still got one of the better homefield advantages in the league. Shine those bright primetime lights on this team and the Seahawks should be able to win this game by at least a FG.


It isn't often that you'd expect to see Seattle as a home favorite of -3 getting less support than their opponents, but that's the case we've got here. With Seattle 4-1 ATS in their last five against a winning foe and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 appearances on MNF, I'm expecting to see the Seahawks prevail to cap off Week 11.

Best Bet: Seattle -3