Cnotes 2017 College Football Picks-Trends-News Etc. !

[CNOTES]

RB Love learned well from McCaffrey
September 29, 2017


STANFORD, Calif. (AP) �� Long before he became the nation's leading running back, Stanford's Bryce Love spent two seasons as a backup to 2015 Heisman Trophy runner-up Christian McCaffrey. It was McCaffrey who helped teach Love to dream big but remain focused on the bottom line.


That's why when Love piled up a career-best 263 yards against UCLA last week it wasn't really all that shocking. Nor was it a surprise when Love opted to stay on the sidelines for the final four minutes, even though he needed 25 more yards to break McCaffrey's single-game school record.


It was, Love insisted afterward, the right thing to do and the same thing that McCaffrey would have done.


"The big thing with it . and Christian had the same thing . just always believe, have that belief," Love said. "I'm not big with numbers and stuff like that but why not come in and have however many yards? The big thing with me and him is just we always wanted to win."


The way things have played out so far, Love could have much more in common with McCaffrey.


Love not only leads the country with 787 rushing yards heading into Saturday's home game against Arizona State, he's on pace to join McCaffrey as the only two players in school history to run for 2,000 yards or more in a single season.


"We all knew he had blazing speed, even his freshman year," wide receiver JJ Arcega-Whiteside said. "We all saw the potential in him. Having guys like Christian in front of him for Bryce to take notes on is a pretty good role model."


Stanford has leaned on Love more than originally anticipated this season because of the team's increasing uncertainty at quarterback.


"He's got so much speed and so much explosion, we all know this was going to happen," Cardinal coach David Shaw said. "How many yards and what people say, you never know. But we knew he was a running back and we knew he was going to get the tough yards. All he needed was carries."


Here are a few other things to watch for when Stanford (2-2, 1-1 Pac-12 ) hosts Arizona State (2-2, 1-0):


TOUGH CROWD: Stanford has already faced what are likely to be two of the top quarterbacks in next year's NFL draft in USC's Sam Darnold and UCLA's Josh Rosen. Things won't get much easier this week. Arizona State's Manny Wilkins is third in the Pac-12 with 1,271 yards and eight touchdowns. Wilkins has also tied the Sun Devils' school record with his current streak of 188 consecutive passes without an interception.


"He's really matured and working hard on being efficient fundamentally and not putting the ball in jeopardy," Arizona State coach Todd Graham said. "He's played at a level all four weeks for us to win. I've got a lot of confidence in Manny where he's at now."

WAITING GAME: Shaw declined to name a starting quarterback earlier this week because he was awaiting news on Keller Chryst's health. Chryst suffered a first-quarter injury that knocked him out of the game against UCLA, leaving the remainder of the game in the hands of backups KJ Costello and Ryan Burns. "If Keller doesn't play it's some combination of those two guys," Shaw said. "If Keller does play, then maybe some combination of those three guys. We'll see how it goes."


BACK-TO-BACK: Fresh off their 37-35 win over Oregon, the Sun Devils will attempt to go 2-0 in conference for the first time since 2012. Arizona State last registered consecutive Pac-12 wins in 2015.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Best Bets
September 29, 2017

College Football Week 5 Best Bets


This week we've got another Saturday chalk-full of college games to break down, although there are only a couple of games that pit Top 25 teams against one another.


Those games are an SEC showdown between #24 Mississippi State and #13 Auburn, and a ACC Championship game rematch from 2016 with #2 Clemson at #12 Virginia Tech. That ACC clash is likely going to get more eyeballs on it because it's the featured primetime game this week, but it's actually the other game I mentioned that looks to be the better one from a betting standpoint. It's that SEC battle that begins this week's card of college football best bets.


Odds per - BetDSI.eu


Best Bet #1: Mississippi State/Auburn Over 51


This is a total that saw plenty of action on Thursday as the opening umber of 49.5 hit as high as 53, before finally settling back down to 51. 51 is a key number in football totals betting and although it's not the best number we've had out there for this play, it's still a decent one that should be surpassed.


All that movement came despite the majority of tickets being written on the 'under' for this game according to VegasInsider.com's betting percentages. Support for the 'under' is not hard to get given that Mississippi State put up a measly 3 points in another high profile SEC game a week ago. The 31-3 loss to Georgia was one of the worst ones this program has experienced in awhile, and especially disappointing after they just had dominated LSU the week prior (37-7) as a touchdown underdog. With Auburn yet to allow more than 14 points against in any of their four games this year, many bettors see this being a game where points come at a premium, and recent results from Mississippi State's offense and Auburn's defense are a big reason why. An 0-5 O/U run in this rivalry the last five years doesn't hurt that cause either.


However, when you look at Mississippi State's complete body of work so far this year, the three points they put up last week sticks out like a sore thumb. The Bulldogs had put up at least 37 points on all three previous opponents, as this is a SEC team that's built to win with their offense, specifically their running attack.


QB Nick Fitzgerald is a big-body QB that's straight out of the Dak Prescott mold for this program. He loves to run the ball (41 attempts for 5 TD's on 7 yards average per carry), and his duel-threat ability at the position creates many problems for opposing defenses. Oh and by the way, Auburn's lone loss this year came against Clemson when they allowed Clemson QB to rush for 59 yards and 2 TD's.


On the flip side, we saw that Mississippi State's defense has some significant holes in it last week, and has 9-point home favorites, Auburn should be able to take advantage of them. The Tigers finally burst out this year by hanging 51 on Missouri last week, and they should threaten 35+ here. Mississippi State has allowed an average of 26 points per road game so far this year, and Auburn is a team that's quite similar to Georgia. Mississippi State is 4-1 O/U in their last five on the road, so look for that trend to continue here.


Finally, the Bulldogs have plenty of other favorable 'over' trends entering this game as well. They are 11-4 O/U after scoring fewer than 20 points last time out, 6-1 O/U the last seven times they've lost by 20+ points, 5-2 O/U in their last seven SEC games, and both 4-0 O/U after a SU loss and an ATS loss (not necessarily the same game). With the way the line has moved this week given the heavy 'under' action it's received, I'm joining the minority here in expecting this one to be a shootout.


Odds per - BetDSI.eu


Best Bet #2: Oregon -15


Oregon is coming off their first loss of the year last week, as they were stunned as two touchdown favorites at Arizona State. A poor 1st quarter really did them in and they were left to play catchup the rest of the way until a Sun Devils FG with under three minutes left gave ASU the eventual 37-35 win. Teams coming off their first defeat this deep into the season can be a cause for concern, but in all honesty, Oregon's number was extremely inflated on the road last week as they shouldn't be laying double digits against anyone in Pac 12 play when they are the visitors.


However, thanks to that shocking result, and California's somewhat shocking result in hanging with #5 USC for a little more than three quarters, the perception on this game has completely flipped. Many saw California give USC all they could handle a week ago and believe this very young team is poised to take the next step. This week they are getting plenty of support from bettors as they believe this Oregon point spread is inflated once again.


Yet, getting the Oregon Ducks on your home field and getting them on their home field are two completely different entities. For all of the flaws Oregon does and may have, they are still a dynamic, explosive, and extremely fast offense at home that can put up points in a hurry. In two home games this year they've scored 42 points in the 1st halves alone, and when you do that it typically doesn't matter how many holes your defense may have.


This Ducks team is looking to rebound in a big way after last week's performance, and running up the score on a California team who shot their load against USC last week is just the spot to do it. This is Cal's first Pac-12 road game in 2017, and they were 0-4 SU and ATS on the road in conference play a year ago.


Finally, this is also a bit of a revenge game for the Ducks who were stunned out of the gate a year ago by this Golden Bears team. California won the game 52-49 in OT as small home underdogs, but it was the 31-14 halftime lead that really hamstrung Oregon's playcalling. The Ducks definitely took this team lightly a year ago, and that's not going to happen again in 2017, as this game could end up being a route from start to finish for the Ducks.

 

[CNOTES]

CFB Aug/Sept Best Bets: ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )
BEST BETS & OPINIONS


DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


09/29/2017 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00


09/28/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00


09/24/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00


09/23/2017 31-33-1 48.44% -26.50


09/22/2017 4-0-0 100.00% +20.00


09/21/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00


09/16/2017 20-26-3 43.48% -43.00


09/15/2017 3-3-0 50.00% -1.50


09/14/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50


09/09/2017 19-21-3 47.50% -20.50


09/08/2017 4-0-0 100.00% +20.00


09/07/2017 0-1-0 0.00% -5.50


09/04/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50


09/03/2017 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50


09/02/2017 11-21-0 34.38% -60.50


09/01/2017 6-3-0 66.67% +13.50


08/31/2017 9-4-0 69.23% +23.00


08/26/2017 5-5-0 50.00% -2.50


Totals:.......125 - 126 - 6.....49.80%....-68.00




Best Bets:*****
Best Bets :........................ATS............TOTALS.... .............O/U................TOTALS


09/29/2017....................1 - 0.............+ 5.00..................2 - 2...............- 1.00


09/28/2017....................0 - 1..............- 5.50..................0 - 0 ...............00.00


09/24/2017....................1 - 0..............+ 5.00.................1 - 0...............+ 5.00


09/23/2017....................9 - 16 - 1.......- 35.00.................2 - 7..............- 28.50


09/22/2017....................2 - 0..............+10.00.................2 - 0..............+10.00


09/21/2017....................1 - 0..............+ 5.00..................1 - 0..............+ 5.00


09/16/2017....................7 - 9 - 1.........- 14.50.................3 - 6...............-12.50


09/15/2017....................2 - 0..............+10.00.................1 - 2...............- 6.00


Totals:........................23 -26 - 2...........- 21.00...............12 - 17.............- 25.00

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Week 5 NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet and odds


(17) South Florida Bulls at East Carolina Pirates (+21, 75)


* The Bulls have scored 30 or more points in 21 consecutive games, the fourth-longest streak all-time. USF & Alabama are the only two teams in Division I to rank in top 10 in rushing yards and rushing defense.


* The Pirates rank dead last in Division I in scoring defense (48 points per game), total defense (624.8 yards per game) and pass efficiency against (192.2). Redshirt senior Thomas Sirk ranks eighth among active QBs in rushing touchdowns (16).


LINE HISTORY: The Bulls opened this matchup as about a 24-point road favorite at most books, but despite a 4-0 SU record they haven't been a good bet this season and bettors have faded them down to -21. The total opened at a sky high 74 and bettors hammered the Over, moving the number as high as 80.5, before coming back down to the current number of 75.


TRENDS:


* USF is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
* ECU is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.
* Over is 9-2 in ECU's last 11 games in September.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.


Northwestern Wildcats at (10) Wisconsin Badgers (-14.5, 49)


* The Wildcats are 18-4 when RB Justin Jackson rushes for 100 or more yards. The Northwestern defense is allowing opponents to convert 47.2 percent of their third-down opportunities, the 18th-worst mark in Division I.


* The Badgers are allowing an average of 10 points per game - fourth-best in the nation - and have yet to surrender a point in the second half so far this season. Wisconsin is 26-7 against Big Ten foes over the past five seasons.


LINE HISTORY: This line has mostly held steady at the opening number of Badgers -14.5. It's the total that has seen more action. Since opening at 51, the number has been bet down to the current number of 49.


TRENDS:


* Wisconsin is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games following a bye week.
* Northwestern is 1-4 ATS in its last five meetings in Wisconsin.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Over is 4-0 in Wisconsin's last four conference games.


Vanderbilt Commodores at (20) Florida Gators (-9, 40.5)


* The Commodores average 87.5 rushing yards per game, ranking them 121st out of 129 Division I teams. But Vanderbilt's defense has held teams to seven red-zone scores in 11 trips - the 13th-best rate in the nation.


* Down nine players suspended prior to the season, the depleted Gators rank 89th in pass offense (200.7 yards per game), 101st in rushing (121.7) and 76th in points allowed (26.7). Florida also sits 97th in third-down conversion rate (34.1 percent).


LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Gators as 9.5-point home favorites and were bet as high as -10, but have since come down to the current number of Florida -9. The total opened at 42 and has been bet down a point and a half to the current number of 40.5.


TRENDS:


* Florida is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 home games.
* Vanderbilt is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 meetings in Florida.
* Under is 13-3-1 in Vanderbilt's last 17 road games.
* Over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.


(8) Georgia Bulldogs at Tennessee Volunteers (+7.5, 47)


* Injured Bulldogs QB Jacob Eason (knee) has been working with the second-team offense, but his status for the weekend hasn't yet been determined. Georgia has scored on all 13 trips to the red zone in 2017, with 10 of those drives ending in touchdowns.


* The Volunteers have given up scores on all but one of opponents' 11 red-zone visits so far this season, ranking them outside the top 100 nationally. DT Shy Tuttle is expected to start Saturday despite suffering an orbital bone injury last weekend.


LINE HISTORY: Georgia opened this SEC showdown favored by a converted touchdown on the road and have been bet up slightly to the current number of Georgia -7.5. The total has been bet down slightly, moving from 48 to 47.


TRENDS:


* Georgia is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 5-0 in Georgia's last five conference games.
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.


Indiana Hoosiers at (4) Penn State Nittany Lions (-18, 63)


* Hoosiers CB A’Shon Riggins, S Marcelino Ball and DT Nate Hoff are all considered questionable for Saturday after suffering injuries last week. Indiana is inside the top 50 in passing yards per game but its 11.1 yards per completion ranks 96th.


* The Nittany Lions come in with a plus-6 turnover differential on the season, tied for the fifth-best total in Division I. Penn State's 10.3 tackles for loss per game is the best rate in the nation, and it ranks tied for 18th in sacks per contest (3.0).


LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Nittany Lions as big 17.5-point home favorites over the Hoosiers and that number has moved up just a bit to the current number of Penn State -18. The total has seen plenty of movement however. The number opened around 61 and climbed as high as 69.5 at some books, before dropping back down drastically to the current number of 63.


TRENDS:


* Indiana is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
* Penn State is 7-0-2 ATS in its last nine home games.
* Under is 6-1 in Indiana's last seven road games.
* Over is 5-1 in Penn State's last six games following a ATS loss.


(25) Florida State Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+7.5, 47.5)


* Seminoles receiving leader Auden Tate is considered day-to-day with a shoulder injury suffered in the second half of last week's game against N.C. State. Florida State is averaging a paltry 2.7 YPC with zero rushing touchdowns through two games.


* The Demon Deacons offense has turned the ball over just once, tied with Miami, Virginia and LSU for the second-fewest turnovers in the nation. Wake Forest is holding foes to a 31.4 percent conversion rate on third downs, ranking 40th in Division I.


LINE HISTORY: The Seminoles hit the board at most books as 7.5-point road favorites and that's where the number currently sits. The total opened at 47 and has bounced back-and-forth between that and 48. It is currently at 47.5.


TRENDS:


* FSU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a ATS loss.
* Wake Forest is 6-1 ATS in its last seven conference games.
* Under is 8-2 in FSU's last 10 road games.
* Over is 5-1 in Wake Forest's last six home games.


(24) Mississippi State Bulldogs at (15) Auburn Tigers (-9, 51)


* The Bulldogs are one of only three Power 5 teams to surrender one sack or fewer so far this season, joining Minnesota and Iowa State. MSU also has yet to lose a fumble in 2017, the only team in the SEC to have that distinction.


* The Tigers are limiting opponents to 236.3 yards per game, the fourth-best average in Division I. RBs Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson are expected to play this week, marking the first time this season they'll appear in the same game."


LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened this matchup with the Tigers as 9.5-point home favorites and they moved the number to Auburn -10, before coming down to the current number of -9. The total opened around 49 and reached as high as 53 before coming back down to the current number of 51.


TRENDS:


* Auburn is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
* Mississippi State is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 6-1 in Mississippi State's last seven games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.


Troy Trojans at (22) Louisiana State Tigers (-20.5, 48.5)


* The Trojans have surrendered just two rushing touchdowns in 2017 while holding opponents to 95.5 yards per game on the ground, the 14th-best rate in the nation. QB Brandon Silvers has thrown for multiple TDs just once in his last nine games.


* Tigers RB Derrius Guice (knee) is considered questionable for this weekend; it's the same designation he had last week, when he played but finished just 14 yards on eight carries. LSU has allowed foes to score on nine of 10 red-zone trips.


LINE HISTORY: LSU hit the board at most books as 19.5-point favorites and rose as high as -21, before settling at the current number of -20.5. The total opened at 49 and is down slightly to 48.5.


TRENDS:


* Troy is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.
* LSU is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games in September.
* Over is 15-1 in Troy's last 16 vs. SEC opponents.
* Under is 6-1-2 in LSU's last nine games following a SU win.


(9) Ohio State Buckeyes at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+29.5, 52)


* The Buckeyes rank first in the Big Ten and 13th in Division I with 319.2 passing yards per game. Head coach Urban Meyer says he will continue to roll with a six-man wide receiver rotation; Eight different wideouts have at least one touchdown catch.


* The Scarlet Knights rank last in the Big Ten in yards per play (4.8) and passing yards per game (163.5). Rutgers has held opponents to 19 conversions on 63 third-down opportunities; that 30.2-percent success rate ranks 28th in the nation.


LINE HISTORY: The Buckeyes opened as about hefty 29-point road chalk at most books and were briefly bet up to -30, before settling at the current number of Ohio State -29.5. The total opened around 51.5 and was bet up to 54m before coming back down to 52.5.


TRENDS:


* Ohio State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.
* Rutgers is 5-1 ATS in their last six games in September.
* Over is 4-1 in Ohio State's last five conference games.
* Under is 6-1 in Rutgers' last seven games overall.


(14) Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders (+10, 84,5)


* Cowboys QB Mason Rudolph has 300 or more passing yards and multiple touchdowns in five consecutive starts dating back to last season. Oklahoma State is outscoring opponents 66-6 in the first quarter.


* The Red Raiders rank second in the nation in passing yards per game (437.7) while completing nearly 75 percent of their attempts as a team. Texas Tech's plus-7 turnover margin is tied for fourth in Division I.


LINE HISTORY: The Pokes opened as about 11-point road faves for this Big 12 matchup and after last week's poor showing, bettors faded them down to -8. But they have since bounced back to Oklahoma State -10. The total hit the board at a massive 81 and bettors still didn't think that was enough, moving the number up to 84.5.


TRENDS:


* Oklahoma State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a ATS loss.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Over is 6-1 in Texas Tech's last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.


(6) Washington Huskies at Oregon State Beavers (+26.5, 59.5)


* The Huskies rank tied for sixth in Division I in turnover margin (plus-6), 10th in scoring defense (11.8 points per game) and 11th in scoring (44.5 ppg). Washington runs just 59.3 plays per game, fewest in the Pac-12.


* Beavers RB Ryan Nall is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry at home compared to 7.8 YPC on the road. Oregon State has scored on all nine of its trips to the red zone, one of 17 Divison I teams with a perfect record there.


LINE HISTORY: The Huskies opened as 26.5-point road favorites and there has been very little movement off that number. The total hit the board at 63 and it's been all Under money since, with number coming down to 59.5.


TRENDS:


* Washington is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Oregon State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.
* Over is 8-1 in Oregon State's last nine games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings in Oregon State.


Mississippi Rebels at (1) Alabama Crimson Tide (-27, 58)


* WR A.J. Brown and DE Victor Evans returned to practice and are expected to play, while C Sean Rawlings is also hopeful to return despite not practicing Wednesday. Ole Miss averages a paltry 2.8 yards per carry with just two rushing touchdowns to date.


* The Crimson Tide rank fifth in the nation in rushing yards (303.3). Alabama has surrendered just one rushing touchdown on the season while limiting opponents to 70.3 rushing yards per game, fifth-fewest in Division I.


LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the No. 1 team in the country as big 28-point home chalk for this SEC matchup and they have been bet down slightly to the current number of Alabama -27. The total opened at 59 and is down to 58.


TRENDS:


* Ole Miss is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Alabama is 7-1 ATS in its last eight conference games.
* Over is 4-1 in Ole Miss' last five games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Alabama.


Northern Illinois Huskies at (21) San Diego State Aztecs (-10, 49)


* The Huskies average just over 26 minutes per game in time of possession, the 19th-lowest average in the nation. DE Sutton Smith leads Division I in tackles for loss (9.5) and also has three sacks and a fumble recovery.


* RB Rashaad Penny ranks second in the country in rushing yards per game (179), all-purpose yards per game (230) and total touchdowns (nine). San Diego State averages just 169.3 passing yards per contest, 110th nationally.


LINE HISTORY: The Aztecs hit the board as around 2.5-point home favorites at most books, but since then have moved down to the current number of San Diego State -10. The total opened at 44.5 and bettors love the over, moving the number all the way up to 49.


TRENDS:


* Northern Illinois is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.
* San Diego State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a ATS win.
* Under is 7-1 in Northern Illinois last eight games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in San Diego State's last six games following a ATS win.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Saturday, September 30

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Saturday's NCAAF Game of the Day: Clemson at Virginia Tech
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Clemson Tigers at Virginia Tech Hokies (+7, 50.5)


Defending national champion Clemson has passed a few early tests already but will face their biggest one yet on Saturday. The second-ranked Tigers put their school-record 11-game road winning streak on the line when they visit No. 12 Virginia Tech in an ACC showdown between unbeaten teams.


Virginia Tech coach Justin Fuente knows his team’s margin for error is next to nothing against the Tigers, who are explosive on offense and dominant on defense.


"It's like defusing a bomb,” Fuente told reporters. “Like one small snip of the wire that's incorrect and, 'Boom!' You blow your hands off. That's how talented and how good they are."


Clemson already has beaten two ranked opponents, holding off Auburn in a defensive struggle and routing Louisville on the road, and pulled away in the fourth quarter of a 34-7 win over Boston College last week. The Hokies survived a tough test in a 31-24 win over West Virginia to open the season but have coasted past inferior competition over the last three weeks.

TV: 8:00 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE HISTORY: This game opened with the road team favored by 6.5 points and was bet all the way up to 8 but appears to be settling at the key number 7. The total opened at 51.5 but has been bet down to 50.5 at most shops.

INJURY REPORT:


Clemson - TE Garrett Williams (doubtful, knee), CB Marcus Edward (doubtful, foot), RB Adam Choice (probable, ankle), CB Mark Fields (probable, gluteus).


Virginia Tech - RB Steven Peoples (questionable, ankle), DB Divine Deablo (questionable, foot), CB Adonis Alexander (questionable, disciplinary)

ABOUT CLEMSON (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U): The Tigers boast one of the nation’s best defenses, ranking third nationally in total defense (227 yards per game) and scoring defense (9.2 points) despite a challenging early schedule. The offense has been remarkably consistent as well, considering all Clemson lost at the skill positions. Quarterback Kelly Bryant has been terrific, passing for 873 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions while rushing for 268 yards and seven scores, and freshman running back Travis Etienne (292 yards, four TDs) averages 12.7 yards per carry.

ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-2-1 O/U): The Hokies have long been regarded for their stellar defense and special-teams work, but they’re putting up huge offensive numbers so far this season. Redshirt freshman quarterback Josh Jackson has been superb, completing 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,127 yards with 11 touchdowns and one interception, albeit against weak competition. Jackson has a tremendous weapon in receiver Cam Phillips, who has recorded 34 receptions for 523 yards and five touchdowns through four contests.

TRENDS:


*Clemson is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.
*Virginia Tech is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.
*The Over is 6-0 in Clemson's last six road games.
*The Under is 18-8 in Virginia Tech's last 26 conference games.

CONSENSUS: The road favorite Tigers are getting 56 percent of the action from users and the Over is the popular choice with a 52 percent pick rate.



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[HacheMan]

Thanks & GL Cnotes

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's NCAAF Week 5 action report: Bettors riding with road faves, but action is light
Patrick Everson


September closes out with a college football Saturday, highlighted by a prime-time showdown in the Atlantic Coast Conference. We check in on the action with Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics in Las Vegas, and Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US, which operates more than 100 sportsbooks throughout Nevada.


No. 2 Clemson Tigers at No. 12 Virginia Tech Hokies – Open: +7.5; Move: +7; Move: +7.5


Defending national champion Clemson has won nine in a row SU (6-3 ATS) dating to last season. The Tigers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) had a lot of trouble with Boston College in Week 4, in a game tied at 7 through three quarters, but Dabo Swinney’s troops racked up four fourth-quarter touchdowns to win 34-7 as a 33.5-point home favorite.


Virginia Tech is also out of the gate 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, though this will mark its toughest game by far, having previously faced West Virginia, Delaware, East Carolina and Old Dominion. In Week 4 against ODU, the Hokies breezed to a 38-0 victory as a 28.5-point chalk.


“Virginia Tech, we’re getting three times more money on account, so the sharp money is on Virginia Tech,” Bernanke said of action on this 8 p.m. ET kickoff. “But over the counter, we’re seeing all public money on Clemson. This game’s gonna a be a big test for Virginia Tech, to see if they’re for real, and Clemson, they’ve become everyone’s darlings since winning the national championship. They’re one of our top five public teams now.”


The line opened Clemson -7.5 at CG Technology books, including The Cosmopolitan and the Venetian on the Vegas Strip. That sharp VaTech action forced a cup of coffee at 7 on Wednesday before the line quickly returned to 7.5.


“This line I anticipate gets to 8 the day of game,” Bernanke said of expectations for today at CG Technology books, including The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip. “We’ll see an influx of public money on Clemson.”


William Hill opened the Tigers -7 and has been at 7.5 since Wednesday on lower-than-anticipated action.


“We’re a little high on Clemson money, but very disappointing handle on this game right now. It’s very light,” Bogdanovich said.


No. 8 Georgia Bulldogs at Tennessee Volunteers – Open: +7.5: Move: +7; Move: +7.5; Move: +8; Move: +8.5


Georgia turned what was expected to be an early SEC showdown into a blowout victory last week. The Bulldogs (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) gave almost nothing to previously unbeaten upstart Mississippi State in a 31-3 victory as a 2.5-point home fave.


Tennessee (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) barely escaped what would have been a hugely embarrassing loss in Week 4. The Volunteers held on for an uninspired 17-13 win over Massachusetts as a heavy 28-point home chalk.


“Tennessee last week looked terrible,” said Bernanke, who then alluded to the line on this game when it was first put up months ago as one of CG’s Games of the Year. “The look-ahead line on this game was Tennessee -1, if you can believe it. Right now, we’re getting all Georgia money across the board. We can’t get a Tennessee ticket right now. Georgia’s dismantling of Mississippi State, everyone noticed that, and it’s certainly showing up at the betting windows.”


The Bulldogs and Vols kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET.


Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders – Open: +8.5; Move: +9; Move: +10; Move: +9.5; Move: +10


Oklahoma State was another early season darling, particularly with public bettors, but the bottom fell out in Week 4. The Cowboys (3-1 SU and ATS) laid an egg at home against a top-20 Texas Christian unit, losing 44-31 giving 9 points.


Texas Tech (3-0 SU and ATS) is coming off an upset road victory. The Red Raiders topped Houston 27-24 as a 7-point underdog and will be an even larger pup for this Big 12 showdown.


“Again, very little betting so far,” Bogdanovich lamented of action for this 8 p.m. ET kickoff. “We’re just a little high on Oklahoma State. I think there’s a little sharp money there, but disappointing handle on this game, to say the least.”


CG opened the Pokes -8.5 and got as high as 11 before falling back to 10.5 on Friday.


“We’re seeing all sharp money and public money on Oklahoma State,” said Bernanke, who was more intrigued by the total of 84, the highest this year in college football. “Right now, all I’ve seen is over money.”


No. 24 Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 15 Auburn Tigers – Open: -9.5; Move: -10; Move: -9.5; Move: -9; Move: -8.5


Last week, Auburn (3-1 SU, 1-2-1 ATS) won and cashed in the same game for the first time this season, and in quite convincing fashion. The Tigers boatraced Missouri 51-14 laying 18.5 points on the road.


Meanwhile, Mississippi State (3-1 SU and ATS) got the aforementioned reality check at Georgia, losing 31-3 as a 2.5-point ‘dog. Yet this line has been ticking down since topping out at Auburn -10 on Tuesday, with kickoff set for 6 p.m. ET.


“There’s been some sharp money for Mississippi State, but no great shakes,” Bogdanovich said. “It’s just very light handle all around this week. I don’t know why. I guess all the bettors got broke last week.”


Perhaps last Sunday’s NFL action played a part, as underdogs went 11-5 ATS and the sportsbooks had a field day.


Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan State Spartans – Open: -3.5; Move: -3; Move: -4.5; Move: -4


Iowa had an outstanding chance to pull an upset over Penn State, scoring a touchdown inside the final two minutes to take a 19-15 lead at home last week. But the Hawkeyes (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) couldn’t make it hold up, losing on a touchdown on the last play of the game, 21-19 as a 13-point underdog.


Michigan State (2-1 SU and ATS) was dealt its first setback of the season in Week 4, tumbling to Notre Dame 38-18 catching 3 points at home.


“Pretty good two-way action so far, and I think it’ll continue to be pretty good two-way,” Bogdanovich said of activity for this 4 p.m. ET start. “Iowa played pretty good last week.”


Other games seeing notable movement/action:


• South Florida at East Carolina: ECU’s three losses came by a combined score of 154-51, and even in the Pirates’ lone win last week, they allowed 38 points to Connecticut in a 41-38 road win getting 5 points. Yet they’re seeing some money against No. 17 South Florida, moving the line from 24 to 21 for this noon ET start. “Just some sharp money for the ‘dog. So good luck with that,” Bogdanovich joked.


• Navy at Tulsa: The Midshipmen opened -4.5 and were bet up to 7.5 in a 3:30 p.m. ET contest. “That’s sharp money on Navy. Tulsa had a pitiful performance against New Mexico.” Indeed, the Golden Hurricane were 10-point home favorites and lost outright, 16-13.


• Colorado at UCLA: The Bruins have gone from -6.5 to -7.5. “Early money was probably sharp money. They laid the 6.5 and the 7.” It’s a late kickoff, at 10:30 p.m. ET.


• Central Michigan at Boston College: The Eagles are up to 10.5-point chalk, after opening at 7.5 at William Hill books for this 1 p.m. ET meeting. “That’s definitely sharp money for Boston College.”


• San Jose State at UNLV: The Rebels opened -12 at William Hill and now find themselves 14-point faves for this 10:30 p.m. matchup. “I’m assuming it’s sharp money. They laid 12 and 13. We’re high on the Rebels.

 

[CNOTES]

CFB Aug/Sept Best Bets: ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )
BEST BETS & OPINIONS


DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


09/29/2017 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00


09/28/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00


09/24/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00


09/23/2017 31-33-1 48.44% -26.50


09/22/2017 4-0-0 100.00% +20.00


09/21/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00


09/16/2017 20-26-3 43.48% -43.00


09/15/2017 3-3-0 50.00% -1.50


09/14/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50


09/09/2017 19-21-3 47.50% -20.50


09/08/2017 4-0-0 100.00% +20.00


09/07/2017 0-1-0 0.00% -5.50


09/04/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50


09/03/2017 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50


09/02/2017 11-21-0 34.38% -60.50


09/01/2017 6-3-0 66.67% +13.50


08/31/2017 9-4-0 69.23% +23.00


08/26/2017 5-5-0 50.00% -2.50


Totals:.......125 - 126 - 6.....49.80%....-68.00




Best Bets:*****
Best Bets :........................ATS............TOTALS.... .............O/U................TOTALS


09/29/2017....................1 - 0.............+ 5.00..................2 - 2...............- 1.00


09/28/2017....................0 - 1..............- 5.50..................0 - 0 ...............00.00


09/24/2017....................1 - 0..............+ 5.00.................1 - 0...............+ 5.00


09/23/2017....................9 - 16 - 1.......- 35.00.................2 - 7..............- 28.50


09/22/2017....................2 - 0..............+10.00.................2 - 0..............+10.00


09/21/2017....................1 - 0..............+ 5.00..................1 - 0..............+ 5.00


09/16/2017....................7 - 9 - 1.........- 14.50.................3 - 6...............-12.50


09/15/2017....................2 - 0..............+10.00.................1 - 2...............- 6.00


Totals:........................23 -26 - 2...........- 21.00...............12 - 17.............- 25.00

 

[CNOTES]

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 30


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


USF at ECU 12:00 PM


USF -21.0 *****


RICE at PITT 12:00 PM


O 51.5


NMSU at ARK 12:00 PM


NMSU +17.5 *****


HOU at TEM 12:00 PM


TEM +12.0 *****


NW at WIS 12:00 PM


NW +15.0


MD at MINN 12:00 PM


MINN -13.0 *****


VAN at FLA 12:00 PM


VAN +9.0


UNC at GT 12:00 PM


GT -10.0 *****


SYR at NCST 12:20 PM


SYR +14.0


CMU at BC 01:00 PM


U 51.0 *****

 

[CNOTES]

UTEP at ARMY 03:30 PM


O 48.5


NAVY at TLSA 03:30 PM

NAVY -8.5


IND at PSU 03:30 PM


PSU -17.5 *****


UGA at TENN 03:30 PM


UGA -9.0 *****


BAY at KSU 03:30 PM


KSU -14.5


O 55.5 *****


BUFF at KENT 03:30 PM


U 42.0


OHIO at MASS 03:30 PM


O 53.0


FSU at WAKE 03:30 PM


WAKE +7.0 *****

 

[CNOTES]

CONN at SMU 04:00 PM

SMU -17.0 *****


U 75.5


TXST at WYO 04:00 PM


TXST +16.5


IOWA at MSU 04:00 PM

IOWA +3.5 *****


ASU at STAN 04:00 PM

STAN -17.0 *****


O 60.0


EMU at UK 04:00 PM


UK -14.0


M-OH at ND 05:00 PM

M-OH +20.0 *****


MSST at AUB 06:00 PM


AUB -7.5 *****


AKR at BGSU 06:00 PM


U 57.0

 

[CNOTES]

Joe Tiller, Purdue's winningest football coach, dies at 74
September 30, 2017


Joe Tiller, the winningest football coach in Purdue history, has died at 74.


The school says he died Saturday in Buffalo, Wyoming. The Harness Funeral Home says he died at home of natural causes.


Tiller coached the Boilermakers from 1997 to 2008 and had a record of 87-62 record. He led the previously downtrodden program to 10 bowl games, including the 2001 Rose Bowl. He coached NFL quarterbacks Drew Brees, Kyle Orton and Curtis Painter.


Tiller overtook Jack Mollenkopf for most wins by a Purdue football coach with his 85th victory, a 32-25 decision over Central Michigan in 2008.


Tiller coached for six years at Wyoming before joining Purdue. In 1996, he led the Cowboys to a 10-2 record, the Western Athletic Conference championship game and a No. 22 ranking.

 

[CNOTES]

No. 21 Florida loses QB Del Rio to left shoulder injury
September 30, 2017


GAINESVILLE, Fla. (AP) Florida quarterback Luke Del Rio has left Saturday's game against Vanderbilt with a left shoulder injury.


Making his first start of the season for the 21st-ranked Gators, Del Rio was slow to get up after rolling out of the pocket, completing a pass to Brandon Powell and getting knocked down. Del Rio was favoring his left shoulder as he walked off the field and trainers looked at him on the bench. He then headed to the locker room for most tests.


The son of Oakland Raiders coach Jack Del Rio started six games last year before sustaining a season-ending injury to his right shoulder. Del Rio also partly tore the medial collateral ligament in his left knee. He had surgery on both shoulders after the season.


Feleipe Franks, who started Florida's first three games of the season and was benched in two of them, replaced Del Rio in the second quarter.

 

[CNOTES]

MRSH at CIN 07:00 PM

MRSH +3.5 *****


USA at LT 07:00 PM


LT -11.5 *****


MEM at UCF 07:00 PM


UCF -5.5 *****


UNT at SOMIS 07:00 PM


SOMIS -7.5


AFA at UNM 07:00 PM


UNM +3.0 *****


TROY at LSU 07:00 PM


TROY +20.5 *****


MTU at FAU 07:00 PM


U 60.0


CHAR at FIU 07:00 PM


FIU -9.5


CCAR at ULM 07:00 PM

O 54.0 *****


BALL at WMU 07:00 PM


U 54.0


OSU at RUTG 07:30 PM


RUTG +28.0 *****


SOCAR at TAM 07:30 PM


TAM -7.0 *****

 

[CNOTES]

WASH at ORST 08:00 PM


U 59.5


OKST at TTU 08:00 PM


TTU +10.0 *****


CLEM at VT 08:00 PM


CLEM -7.0 *****


MISS at ALA 09:00 PM


MISS +28.5 *****


NEV at FRES 10:00 PM


FRES -9.5 *****


SJSU at UNLV 10:30 PM


O 63.5


NIU at SDSU 10:30 PM


NIU +9.0


CAL at ORE 10:30 PM


CAL +16.0 *****


COLO at UCLA 10:30 PM

COLO +7.5 *****


CSU at HAW 11:59 PM


CSU -6.5 *****

 

[CNOTES]

CFB Aug/Sept Best Bets: ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )
BEST BETS & OPINIONS


DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


09/30/2017 29-19-3 61.70% +40.50


09/29/2017 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00


09/28/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00


09/24/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00


09/23/2017 31-33-1 48.44% -26.50


09/22/2017 4-0-0 100.00% +20.00


09/21/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00


09/16/2017 20-26-3 43.48% -43.00


09/15/2017 3-3-0 50.00% -1.50


09/14/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50


09/09/2017 19-21-3 47.50% -20.50


09/08/2017 4-0-0 100.00% +20.00


09/07/2017 0-1-0 0.00% -5.50


09/04/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50


09/03/2017 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50


09/02/2017 11-21-0 34.38% -60.50


09/01/2017 6-3-0 66.67% +13.50


08/31/2017 9-4-0 69.23% +23.00


08/26/2017 5-5-0 50.00% -2.50


Totals:.......154 - 145 - 9.....51.50%....-27.50




Best Bets:*****
Best Bets :........................ATS............TOTALS.... .............O/U................TOTALS


09/30/2017..................18 - 7.............+ 51.50................1 - 1................-0.50


09/29/2017....................1 - 0.............+ 5.00..................2 - 2...............- 1.00


09/28/2017....................0 - 1..............- 5.50..................0 - 0 ...............00.00


09/24/2017....................1 - 0..............+ 5.00.................1 - 0...............+ 5.00


09/23/2017....................9 - 16 - 1.......- 35.00.................2 - 7..............- 28.50


09/22/2017....................2 - 0..............+10.00.................2 - 0..............+10.00


09/21/2017....................1 - 0..............+ 5.00..................1 - 0..............+ 5.00


09/16/2017....................7 - 9 - 1.........- 14.50.................3 - 6...............-12.50


09/15/2017....................2 - 0..............+10.00.................1 - 2...............- 6.00


Totals:........................41 -33 - 2...........+30.50...............13 - 18.............- 25.50

 

[CNOTES]

Betting Recap - Week 5
October 1, 2017


Overall Notes


COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 5 RESULTS


WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 47-7
Against the Spread 31-23


WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 34-20
Against the Spread 26-28


WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 26-27-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Troy (+20.5, ML +1000) at Louisiana State, 24-21
Maryland (+13.5, ML +425) at Minnesota, 31-24
North Texas (+8, ML +260) at Southern Mississippi, 43-28
Washington State (+5, ML +170) vs. Southern California, 30-27

The largest favorites to cover
Alabama (-30) vs. Mississippi, 66-3
Ohio State (-28.5) at Rutgers, 56-0
Washington (-27.5) at Oregon State, 42-7
South Florida (-22.5) at East Carolina, 61-31
Notre Dame (-21) vs. Miami-Ohio, 52-17


Top 25 Notes


-- Clemson is the No. 2 team in the land, and they became the first team to ever beat three opponents ranked Top 15 or higher before Oct. 1. The Tigers looked like the more experienced team in their 31-17 road victory at Virginia Tech, and their defense might one of the most dominant in the nation. The Tigers are now 4-1 ATS, including 2-0 ATS on the road, and they're allowing just 10.8 PPG through five outings. ... Alabama rolled past Mississippi in one of the most dominating performances of the weekend, 66-3. In two games against the SEC, the Crimson Tide have outscored their opponents 125-3. The 'over' is a perfect 3-0 over the past three outings for the Tide. ... The weekend kicked off with Washington State topping Southern California on the Palouse. After opening 2-0 SU, but 0-2 ATS, the Cougs have covered three in a row.

-- Miami-Florida pounded Duke 31-6 at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, handing the Blue Devils their first loss and non-cover in five games. The Hurricanes moved to 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS, including covers in each of their games against FBS foes this season. Up next for the Canes is their annual Sunshine State rivalry game at Florida State.


-- Auburn spanked Mississipp State by a 49-10 count, as it was a bad day all around for all of the powers in the Magnolia State. Hey, at least Last Chance U, East Mississippi CC, rolled to a 45-7 win this week over Mississippi Delta CC. Like their Yellowhammer State rivals from Tuscaloosa, the Tigers are 2-0 SU/ATS in the SEC, averaging 50.0 PPG while allowing just 12.0 PPG.


-- Penn State continues to get amazing performances from Heisman hopeful RB Saquon Barkley, and they ended up rolling Indiana by a 45-14 score. The Nittany Lions running back might get all the attention, but the defense is allowing just 9.4 PPG through five outings, with the 'under' going 4-1 so far.


-- Georgia certainly looked impressive, as they trucked Tennessee 41-0 in Knoxville, turning up the temperature on Butch Jones' hot seat. The Bulldogs are now 4-1 ATS through five outings, and the 'under' has connected in each of their five games to date. UGA is allowing just 9.2 PPG so far.


Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)


-- Florida State picked up its first win at Wake Forest, 26-19. The offense is slowly, but surely, getting better with a true freshman under center. The Noles are still 0-2-1 ATS through three games, and the 'under' has connected in each outing. ... Georgia Tech rolled North Carolina 33-7, as the Tar Heels slipped to 1-4 SU/ATS. ... North Carolina State held off a late charge from Syracuse, winning 33-25. The Wolfpack are 4-0 SU over the past four outings, but just 1-4 ATS on the season.

-- Michigan State isn't quite all the way back, but they took a big step forward in a 17-10 win over Iowa. The Spartans improved to 3-1 SU/ATS heading into their rivalry game next week in the Big House. ... Wisconsin knocked off Northwestern 33-24, as a late charge pushed the 'over' (51) past the line. The Wildcats also outscored the Badgers 14-2 in the final 4:46 to score the backdoor cover. ... Maryland picked up an impressive 31-24 road win at Minnesota. The Terrapins are now 3-1 SU/ATS overall, and 2-0 SU/ATS in two games on the road. The Terps are averaging 41.0 PPG on the road.


-- It was a light schedule in the Big 12, with just three total games. Kansas State held on for a 33-20 win over winless Baylor, but they took their foot off the gas in the second half and allowed the Bears back into the game. While Baylor is 0-5 SU, they have at least covered in each of the past two. ... Oklahoma State bounced back to top Texas Tech by a 41-34 count, but it was the second straight non-cover for the Cowboys.


-- UCLA rebounded with a 27-23 victory against Colorado, but they slipped to 0-3 ATS over the past three, and 1-4 ATS overall this season. The 'under' result was their first in five outings, too. ... Oregon turned in a dominant performance against California, rebounding after their loss last week at Arizona State. ... moving to 4-0 SU/ATS. The 'under' also hit for the third time thisseason. ... Washington humbled Oregon State 42-7, as they have quietly moved to 5-0 SU. It doesn't seem like many are paying much mind to the Huskies, who are averaging 39.5 PPG in their two conference tilts while covering both. They're also allowing just 8.5 PPG in two Pac-12 battles.

-- Florida pushed aside Vanderbilt, but lost QB Luke Del Rio to a broken collarbone. Bettors were likely breaking things, too (see bad beats below). ... Texas A&M outscored South Carolina 14-0 in the fourth quarter, as the Aggies rallied for a 24-17 victory. The Aggies have won four in a row since their stunning collapse against UCLA in the opener.


Mid-Major Report


-- UCF is an impressive 3-0 SU/ATS after thumping Memphis, 40-13. The Golden Knights have won each of their games by at least 27 points, going 3-0 ATS so far. ... South Florida rolled past struggling East Carolina, 61-31. The Bulls are now 5-0 SU, and they have covered three in a row. USF's average margin of victory is 30.0 PPG during the three-game cover streak. The Pirates are 1-4 SU/ATS, including 0-3 SU/ATS at home. The Pirates have lost each of their three home games by at least 20 points, with the 'over' hitting in each of their past four.


-- Florida Atlantic picked up an impressive 38-20 victory over Middle Tennesseee, 38-20. The Owls have covered three of their past four, with the 'under' going 4-1 through five games. ... Rice was pummeled at Pittsburgh, 42-10, falling to 1-4 SU/ATS. The Owls have dropped three in a row, and they're averaging just 6.7 PPG during the span. ... North Texas scored an impressive 43-28 victory at Southern Mississippi, moving to 2-0 in the C-USA West Division.


-- Ohio and Massachusetts combined for the highest-scoring game in Week 5, totaling 108 points. The Bobcats came away with the 58-50 victory, as they have now won and covered three in a row, and four of their five overall. ... Buffalo avenged a home loss last season against Kent State, 27-13. The total on this game was a bad beat (see below), as well as bad beat info on the Akron-Bowling Green total. As far as the result, the Falcons slipped to 0-5 SU/ATS. ... Northern Illinois went to San Diego State and battled hard. The Aztecs held on for the 34-28 win, but the Huskies were able to improve to 5-0 ATS.


-- Utah State polished off Brigham Young on Friday night, 40-24. The Aggies have covered in back-to-back games for the first time this season. The 'over' is a perfect 5-0 for USU, too. ... Colorado State went out to the islands and maintained their composure and focus, topping Hawaii 51-21 in perhaps their most complete game of the season. CSU has covered in back-to-back outings, both on the road. ... San Jose State was dumped at UNLV, 41-13. After covering in their first two, the Spartans are a dismal 0-4 ATS in their past four outings.


Bad Beats


-- 'Over' bettors (40.5) were feeling great in the Buffalo-Kent State game, as there were 33 points on the board by halftime. The Bulls punched in a touchdown with 4:59 to go in the third quarter, but that was it. The fourth quarter was scoreless, including Buffalo's decision not to kick a field with less than two minutes to go on fourth down deep in KSU territory.


-- Akron-BGSU (58) had a total of 33 points on the board at halftime, too, and 50 points by the end of three quarters. However, defense reigned supreme in the final quarter, with only a pick-six by the Zips at 8:59 serving as the only scoring.


-- In the Vandy-Florida game, Commodores side bettors felt like they were going to score a backdoor cover with 3:14 to go in regulation, down 31-24 with a nine-point spread. However, Malik Davis ripped off a 39-yard total run after the onside kick, pushing Florida's lead to 38-24. Davis was actually chewed out by his coach for not going down and ending the game, technically giving Vandy a chance to do something. But the 'Dores couldn't come through the backdoor for bettors.

-- Clemson and Virginia Tech (48.5) was never really going over, but it was close. The Hokies scored with 1:32 to cut Clemson's lead to 31-17, giving 'over' bettors hope. The Tigers recovered the onside kick, and used a young quarterback in the game later rather than kneeling it out. Clemson threatened to move it into the red zone in the final ticks, but they came up just short, as did 'over' bettors.

 

[CNOTES]

CFB notebook: USC plummets in Top 25 poll
October 1, 2017


The top four teams remain the same in the latest Associated Press Top 25 poll released Sunday but last week's No. 5 team plummeted.


Southern California fell from fifth to 14th, stemming from Friday's 30-27 loss to Washington State. The defeat halted the Trojans' 13-game winning streak. USC's loss opened the door for Georgia to move up two spots to No. 5. The Bulldogs routed Tennessee 41-0 on Saturday.


Alabama remained atop the poll, followed by Clemson, Oklahoma and Penn State. The Crimson Tide slipped from 52 first-place votes last week to 44 despite demolishing Mississippi 66-3. Clemson received the other 17 first-place votes.


Washington State moved up five spots to No. 11 after its victory over USC. The outcome marked the Cougars' first win over a Top 10 team since 2003. Washington State's 5-0 start is also its best since winning its first seven games in 2001.

--Oregon sophomore quarterback Justin Herbert suffered a broken left collarbone in Saturday night's 42-24 victory over California, according to The Oregonian.


The injury to Herbert's non-throwing shoulder could possibly be season-ending though Oregon coach Willie Taggart told reporters after the game that he did not have an update on Taggart's status and that he needed to talk with doctors.


Herbert and running back Royce Freeman both left the game at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore., on the same drive in the first quarter. Freeman also appeared to suffer a shoulder injury.


--UTEP coach Sean Kugler, whose team is off to a 0-5 start, announced his resignation in his fifth season after his hiring in 2013.


Kugler's resignation is the first coaching change involving FBS schools this season. A successor has not been named. The school indicated an announcement will be made Monday.


Kugler, 51, was 18-36 as UTEP's coach. He was 9-20 since 2014, when he coached the Miners to a 7-6 record and a New Mexico Bowl appearance. Among Kugler's coaching stops were NFL stints with the Detroit Lions (2001-05), Buffalo Bills (2007-09) and Pittsburgh Steelers (2010-12).

 

[CNOTES]

STAT WATCH: Stanford's Love season's 1st 1,000-yard rusher
October 2, 2017


Stanford's Bryce Love is the first 1,000-yard rusher in the Bowl Subdivision, crossing the threshold with the nation's top performance of the season.


Love ran for a school-record 301 yards on 25 carries against Arizona State on Saturday and has 1,088 through five games. It was the first 300-yard game this season. Last year there were four.


Love's FBS-leading average of 217.6 yards per game is 53 more than that of San Diego State's Rashaad Penny. With seven games left, Love would need to average just over 133 yards to break Christian McCaffrey's school season record of 2,019.


The junior is averaging 11.1 yards per attempt and has had at least one touchdown run of 50 yards or longer in each game, including TD bursts of 61 and 59 yards in the 34-24 win over the Sun Devils.


Love will be challenged this week at Utah. The Utes rank first in the Pac-12 and 10th in the nation in rushing defense (87 ypg).


Other notable statistical feats:


---

3 PICKS, 2 SIXES


Utah State's Jalen Davis intercepted three passes against BYU and returned two of them for touchdowns. The three interceptions tied a Mountain West record and the two pick-sixes were a school record. Davis' picks were among seven takeaways by the Aggies, and they have 11 in two games. Davis and Boston College's Lukas Denis share the national lead with five interceptions.

RECEIVING RECORD


Syracuse's Ervin Philips set an Atlantic Coast Conference record with 17 receptions in the Orange's loss to North Carolina State. He also had a career-high 188 yards receiving. Philips had 14 catches against Colgate last year, which at the time equaled Art Monk's record from 1977. Philips' 178 catches rank second on Syracuse's all-time chart, 23 behind Alec Lemon (2009-12).


LONG RUN


UCF's Adrian Killins, Jr. set the American Athletic Conference record for longest run from scrimmage when he broke a 96-yarder for a touchdown against Memphis. It was the second-longest play from scrimmage this season, behind Abdul Adams' 99-yard run for Oklahoma against Baylor on Sept. 23.

THROWIN' ROSEN


UCLA's Josh Rosen leads the country in passing yards (427 per game) and touchdown passes (17). Texas Tech's Nic Shimonek is second in passing yards (394.5), and Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph and Washington State's Luke Falk are tied for second in TD passes (16).


Mississippi's Shea Patterson, who was throwing for 427 yards a game through last week, saw his average drop to 361.5 after Alabama limited him to 165 yards through the air on Saturday.


Fourteen quarterbacks are passing for 300 yards or more per game.

SCORING SURGE CONTINUES


The FBS team scoring average is 30.2 points per game through the first month. That's slightly ahead of the average for the full season in 2016, when team scoring hit 30 points for the first time.

 

[CNOTES]

CFB Aug/Sept Best Bets: ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )
BEST BETS & OPINIONS


Aug/SeptTotals:.......154 - 145 - 9.....51.50%....-27.50


Best Bets:*****
Best Bets :........................ATS............TOTALS.... .............O/U................TOTALS


Aug/Sept Totals:...........41 -33 - 2...........+30.50...............13 - 18.............- 25.50


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CFB Ocotber's Best Bets & Opinions ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )