Cnotes 2017 College Football Picks-Trends-News Etc. !

[CNOTES]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 5
October 2, 2017

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the fifth big college football weekend to close September.


Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Pittsburgh (-20) 42, Rice 10: Taking some frustration out after a disappointing start to the season Pittsburgh opened up a 21-0 lead in the first quarter and made it 28-0 at halftime. Rice regrouped in the second half with defensive stops and two scoring drives to pull within the spread through three quarters, trailing 28-10. The Panthers would prevail however scoring two touchdowns in the fourth quarter while Rice had a pair of fourth quarter interceptions in Pittsburgh territory.


South Florida (-21½) 61, East Carolina 31: A three-touchdown underdog that scores in the 30s has to feel pretty good about its chances to cover and early on East Carolina traded punches with the undefeated Bulls, trailing just 31-24 at halftime even with allowing a long interception return touchdown. Deep into the third quarter it was still a seven-point game but South Florida scored 17 points in about five minutes of game clock with the second two scores coming on drives of just seven and 33 yards. The Bulls added another late score to make for a rather misleading 30-point final margin and road favorite cover.

NC State (-14) 33, Syracuse 25: In what some figured could be a letdown game NC State took control early against Syracuse with a 26-7 edge at halftime. The Orange picked up 10 points in the third quarter however to get back in the game before NC State completed a 10-play touchdown drive with about 10 minutes to go, sitting just past the favorite spread with a 16-point lead. Syracuse opted to go for it on 4th-and-10 from the NC State 15 and failed but pinned deep the Wolfpack were forced to punt and a strong return set-up the Orange for a 33-yard touchdown drive to climb within the spread with just fewer than five minutes remaining. The Orange got the two-conversion to make it a one-score game but the on-side kick failed and NC State was able to move the chains enough to run out the clock.


Houston (-10½) 20, Temple 13: The Cougars led 20-0 early in the third quarter but Temple proved resilient. The Owls added a field goal and then got a big defensive stop to force a punt, eventually delivering an 85-yard touchdown drive to close to within 10 points and just within the underdog spread early in the fourth quarter. Temple added another field goal and eventually had the ball back near midfield but the final two Temple drives ended on downs and then with a late interception.

Florida State (-7½) 26, Wake Forest 19: The Seminoles lost on the opening and closing number but much of the week -7 was the price. At no point in the game until the final minute did Florida State lead by seven however as many on the underdog Demon Deacons left with a tough-luck push with Wake Forest looking like the superior squad most of the way. Wake Forest led 19-16 early in the fourth quarter before Florida State managed a tying field goal.


A marginal Wake Forest punt with the Demon Deacons pinned deep gave the Seminoles great field position heading into the final minute and on 1st down the James Blackman hit Auden Tate for a 40-yard touchdown. Wake Forest made things interesting late reaching the Florida State 38-yard-line in the final seconds but Florida State escaped and a missed extra-point for Wake Forest in the second quarter wound up proving to be an important play relative to the number as well.

Wisconsin (-16) 33, Northwestern 24: The Badgers were short of the spread up 21-10 through three quarters, recovering from a sloppy first half. The Badgers added a field goal in the third quarter and then returned an interception for a touchdown to suddenly slip past the favorite spread with a 31-10 advantage. Wisconsin’s defense let up in the final minutes as the Wildcats put together back-to-back touchdown drives and actually had the ball back down just seven in the final minute. The Wildcats wound up being caught with a sack in the end zone for a safety that effectively ended the game but the late charge was enough for the underdog cover.


Navy (-7½) 31, Tulsa 21: The home underdog Hurricane took a 14-0 lead after the first quarter but Navy took over from there, getting back in front 17-14 late in the third quarter and getting past the spread early in the fourth quarter, eventually scoring 31 consecutive points. Tulsa would finally answer with seven minutes to go to get back within 10 but the road favorite cover held as Navy stopped Tulsa on fourth down in Navy territory late in the game.


SMU (-17) 49, Connecticut 28: The Huskies connected for a 59-yard pass play with a successful two-point conversion to tie this game early in the fourth quarter. SMU fended off the upset threat and wound up with a very fortunate cover scoring three touchdowns in the final twelve minutes with the cover clinching score following Connecticut going for it on 4th-and-9 from its own 29-yard-line. SMU scored one play later and then Connecticut fumbled on its kickoff return to spoil any chance of getting back within the number.

Arkansas (-18) 42, New Mexico State 24: The Razorbacks led 21-0 in the second quarter but New Mexico State climbed back in the game. The Aggies were down just 11 early in the third quarter, sitting in position to cover on a spread that opened at +16½ but reached as high as +19½ much of the week before settling at +18. Things fell apart after a great drive to start the second half however as Arkansas scored back-to-back touchdowns surrounding a New Mexico State fumble, leading by 25 at the start of the final quarter. New Mexico State scored with relative ease to cut the margin to exactly 18 points again and ultimately waved the white flag with a pair of late punts.

UL-Monroe (-8½) 51, Coastal Carolina 43: The Warhawks were opening line and closing line losers last week but -7 was a common number on this game Saturday afternoon. It didn’t appear that the number would matter as UL-Monore went up by 15 in the third quarter but Coastal Carolina scored early in the fourth, though failing going for two, to trial by nine. That score held for more than 12 minutes but the Chanticleers delivered another touchdown drive with just over three minutes remaining to cut the margin to just two points.


The defense forced a punt but only 20 seconds remained when Coastal Carolina got the ball back on its own 33-yard-line. After a pair of incomplete passes one play remained and lateral attempts turned to a fumble which the Warhawks returned for a touchdown. With time expired the extra-point try was unnecessary for an eight-point final margin and a number of close call wagers that shifted on that final play.

Louisiana Tech (-11½) 34, South Alabama 16: A week after Louisiana Tech had its lead erased in the fourth quarter the Bulldogs managed to pull away in the fourth quarter this week. Through three quarters the double-digit favorite led by just one at 17-16 but Louisiana Tech doubled its score in the final frame including scoring 10 points in the final five minutes to slip past the favorite spread with the decisive touchdown following the Jaguars going for it on 4th down deep in their own territory.


Oregon (-17) 45, California 24: The Ducks jumped out to a 17-0 lead in the first quarter but California’s defense adjusted and kept the Bears in the game, eventually getting back within a single-score with about 11 minutes to go in the fourth quarter, down 24-17. After climbing back into the game the Bears allowed a 68-yard touchdown run to take away any momentum the underdog had gained and the only California turnover of the game followed with a fumble a few plays later, setting up an 18-yard touchdown drive to put Oregon up by 21.


California answered to get within the late week spread trailing 38-24 with fewer than five minutes remaining. The Bears forced a punt on defense but California was forced to go for it on 4th-and-10 from its own 23-yard line. They failed and Oregon added the cover-stealing touchdown with just over two minutes remaining. The Ducks finished the game without Justin Herbert who broke his collarbone and will be out for several weeks.

 

[CNOTES]

I had a call that will take me away for a few days on a family emergency.....I will try to do my best to keep you all up to date as much as i can..........Good Luck All !

 

[CNOTES]

Wednesday’s six-pack

— To football/TV guys: Please show number of plays run instead of time of possession– that is the better stat.

— NFL reduced Chicago LB Danny Trevathan’s suspension from 2 games to 1, for his hit on a Packers’ WR last Thursday.

— Indy QB Andrew Luck is back at practice with the Colts this week; not full-tilt, but his return to game action might not be too far away.

— Big 14 hasn’t won a national title in basketball since Michigan State in 2000.

— Buffalo Sabres signed star Jack Eichel to an 8-year, $80M contract extension.

— NBA All-Star Game this winter will have teams chosen by the two players who get the most votes. NFL tried that with the Pro Bowl; it didn’t go well.

*****************************

Wednesday’s List of 13: Mid-week musings……

13) I’ll apologize up front if the first part of today’s Den is preachy or overly political, but I’m pretty sad about all the shootings in our country recently. This shouldn’t be happening.
The 2nd Amendment was written in 1791, 226 years ago. Bicycles hadn’t been invented yet, so some of the laws passed then are obsolete now.

Our gun laws are outdated; we need to ban automatic weapons and assault rifles and any guns that are only useful in wars. 58 people died for no reason Sunday night; little kids died a few years ago in a school shooting. This isn’t acceptable.

If you’re a hunter, you’re not killing a deer or a rabbit with a freakin’ assault rifle- they are used by people who are involved in a war. They should be illegal in our country.

12) The National Rifle Association (NRA) is really powerful; they’ve got lot of politicians in their pockets, which is why our gun laws are stupid.
At some point when the mourning is over in Las Vegas, our politicians have to do their jobs and put a lid on the horrible weapons that are killing our own citizens. Please?!?!?!?

11) It takes onions to be a policeman or a fireman, seriously. You have to have a lot of guts to to walk into the line of fire when everyone else is running away from it, so credit to the police in Las Vegas who saved a lot of people Sunday night.

No one is perfect; not all cops are perfect, but dammit, they do a hell of a job protecting us and deserve our thanks. So….thank you!!!

10) Something I learned this week; When you donate blood, it expires after 42 days. So many people donated blood in Las Vegas this week, but six weeks from now, they’re going to need more. Giving blood doesn’t cost us anything and it is badly needed, so we should do that.
On to some of the fun things in life…….

9) Los Angeles Rams are first NFL team since the 1954 Giants to lead the NFL in scoring thru four games, when they finished last in scoring the year before.

8) JD Martinez is the first big leaguer since Johnny Bench in 1970 to hit 45+ homers in a season and not get hit by a pitch that season.

7) Detroit Lions are +9 in turnovers already, with 11 takeaways in four games; thats a lot.

6) San Antonio Spurs star Kawhi Leonard will sit out the whole preseason as he recovers from a quad injury. Regular season starts in two weeks.

5) NFL stashes a lot of its less attractive games in Weeks 5-7, during the baseball playoffs. Wth 256 games in an NFL season, they’re all not great games. How they make the schedule is a very interesting subject- their marquee games are in primetime or later on in the season.

4) Kermit Davis is the basketball coach at Middle Tennessee State, a very good mid-major team but not like they’re Gonzaga or VCU. Coach Davis makes $750,000 a year— that surprised me. MTSU must have some very well-heeled boosters who love basketball.

3) I enjoyed watching the Miami Marlins this season; with Stanton-Ozuna-Urena on my fantasy team, I watched just about all their games. Not the best team, but they seemed like a bunch of good guys who genuinely like each other and enjoyed playing ball together. Was fun to see.

2) One thing about baseball on TV; if you want to learn about your team, watch the first game of a series, with the OTHER TEAM’s ANNOUNCERS. TV/radio people talk before each series, to clue each other in on their teams, so all the broadcasts are more informed.

If Team B’s announcers say something that is critical of a player on Team A, chances are 95% it came from one of Team A’s announcers. Team B’s TV guys are slow to criticize the home team, but not so much when it comes to criticizing Team A and as a viewer, you can learn that way.

1) Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry both signed 5-year, $205M contracts; with an 82-game regular season, that means those two are both making $500,000 a game!!!!

 

[CNOTES]

Louisville at N.C. State
October 3, 2017
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica]

The ACC was on center stage last weekend with Clemson holding off Virginia Tech in a possible preview of December’s championship game. The Tigers lead the pack, but N.C. Stateand Louisville are formidable threats in the Atlantic division as well. The Wolfpack will get a shot at Clemson in November with the Cardinals already losing in their opportunity to take out the champions. This week’s Thursday night game will determine whether or not N.C. State could emerge as a serious contender in the division race in what looks like a breakthrough season in Raleigh.

Matchup: Louisville Cardinals at N.C. State Wolfpack
Venue: At Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, North Carolina
Time/TV: Thursday, Oct. 5, 8:00 PM ET ESPN
Line: Louisville -3½, Over/Under 65½
Last Meeting: 2016, at Louisville (-18½) 54, N.C. State 13

Louisville has been in the sports news cycle a lot in the last week, but the football program hasn’t been a part of that, quietly getting back-to-back blowout wins at home following the lopsided loss to Clemson in mid-September. While the Cardinals will need a lot of help to get back in the ACC Atlantic race, they could still surpass last season’s great success and reach a major bowl game for the first time since the 2012 Sugar Bowl win.

While Louisville reached as high as #3 in the national polls for three different weeks in the 2016-17 season, the final season tally was just 9-4. Despite featuring the Heisman Trophy winner, the Cardinals closed the season with losses against Houston, Kentucky, and then had a very poor showing in the Citrus Bowl with a 29-9 loss to LSU.

Louisville went 7-1 in ACC play last season and October will feature three difficult road games with games at Florida State and Wake Forest to close the month after next week’s homecoming game with Boston College. The Cardinals have decent wins over Purdue and North Carolina on the resume, but didn’t pass the eye-test in a 47-21 loss hosting Clemson, unable to match the very competitive game Louisville had with the eventual national champions last season.

Lamar Jackson has a chance to be a repeat Heisman winner as he has thrown for 13 touchdowns while rushing for another five after combining to score 51 touchdowns last season. His completion rate in the passing game and his yards per attempt are both up dramatically compared with his numbers last season and he is also rushing at 6.1 yards per carry to even best last season’s pace. Jaylen Smith is one of the top receivers in the ACC with 22 catches already this season and the Cardinals are likely to top last season’s passing numbers as they could be involved in some high scoring shootouts as they were in the first two weeks with Purdue and North Carolina.
[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica]The Louisville defense has similar numbers to last season on the surface allowing 24.6 points per game and 318 yards per game for an almost identical pace. The Cardinals have been excellent against the run under Bobby Petrino, allowing 3.3 yards per rush or less in each of the last three seasons, including surrendering just 3.1 yards per rush last season and so far in 2017. The problem is those numbers feature the blowout wins the past two weeks vs. Kent State and FCS Murray State, and seven Power Five foes remain on the schedule as the defensive figures are likely to climb upward by season’s end.

It was a bit odd watching Sunday Night NFL football last week and seeing Jacoby Brissett and Russell Wilson face off as opposing quarterbacks, both who recently played the bulk of their college snaps at N.C. State. Despite having two NFL quarterbacks in the last decade, N.C. State has a nine-win 2010 season as its high watermark. In his fifth season in Raleigh, Dave Doeren certainly was a candidate to be on the hot seat despite three straight bowl appearances as the program has failed to take the next step.

Many hyped the Wolfpack this summer as a serious threat for a breakthrough season with 17 starters back, an experienced quarterback, and a favorable schedule ahead. N.C. State promptly lost the opener to South Carolina, admittedly with some tough breaks as the Wolfpack had a 504-246 edge in total yards despite the 35-28 loss in Charlotte. N.C. State has rebounded with four straight wins, including an upset at Florida State but the season still hangs in the balance.

This game is followed by road games at Pittsburgh and at Notre Dame before an ambitious homecoming date with Clemson in early November. If N.C. State wins out, they’ll climb on the national radar as a New Year’s Day bowl candidate, but they are likely be dogged in three of the next four games counting this week and could wind up 5-4 heading into the final three contests, heading towards another uninspiring spot in a minor bowl game.

Boise State transfer quarterback Ryan Finley has great numbers in his second season with N.C. State, completing nearly 72 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns against no interceptions. Junior Nyheim Hines has led the team in rushing with more than 400 yards while Jaylen Samuels has 43 catches already, third nationally, though mostly in short gains.

N.C. State has allowed over 23 points per game this season including a FCS win over Furman as the defense has marginal numbers, allowing 370 yards per game for a slight decline compared with the past two seasons. The Wolfpack are 14th nationally in allowing just 2.9 yards per rush as they look likely to dare Jackson to beat them through the air. That was what happened last season and the Heisman winner had one his biggest passing games of the season with 355 yards.

Big plays could decide this game as there has been a non-offensive score in every Louisville game with the Cardinals scoring two but allowing three in five games. Allowing an opening kickoff return touchdown doomed N.C. State in the opening loss as well. N.C. State is +6 in turnovers this season while Louisville is -2 and one big play could be the difference in this closely-lined division battle.

Last Season: N.C. State started 4-1 last season with an upset loss at East Carolina, but picked up a notable win over Notre Dame. In mid-October, they took undefeated and #3 ranked Clemson to overtime, losing 24-17 and then had to go to Louisville for a second straight major road test. Louisville was up 17-0 in the first quarter and 44-0 by halftime in a complete blowout. N.C. State scored twice in the third quarter to save some face, but the game was never in doubt. The 2015 meeting in Raleigh featured a 20-13 win for Louisville with modest production on both sides.

Historical Trends:

-- Louisville is 3-0 S/U (2-1 ATS) the past three years in this series as ACC foes.

-- These teams previously met in bowl action in 2011 with N.C. State winning 31-24 in the Belk Bowl.

-- Since Petrino’s return to Louisville in 2014 the Cardinals are 12-6 S/U and 10-7-1 ATS on the road, going 7-5-1 ATS as a road favorite.

-- N.C. State is 41-28-1 ATS as a home underdog going back to 1984 but that track record hasn’t held up under Doeren.

-- Since taking over in 2013, N.C. State is 0-10 S/U and 3-7 ATS in the home underdog role.

-- N.C. State has actually lost S/U in at least three home games in each of the previous four seasons to add to the frustration of the fan base, with Doeren now 17-14 S/U and 13-18 ATS at Carter-Finley Stadium.

-- N.C. State has gone 11-14 ATS as an underdog in any venue since 2013 though the two biggest outright upsets have occurred in the last two opportunities, beating North Carolina (+9½) in Chapel Hill last November and beating Florida State (+11) in Tallahassee two weeks ago.

-- Louisville is just 15-17-1 ATS when favored since 2014 including going 3-8-1 ATS in the last 12 instances, suffering two upset losses.[/FONT]

 

[CNOTES]

No. 24 NC State hosts No. 17 Louisville in key ACC matchup
October 4, 2017


RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) It took North Carolina State just one clunker of an opening-game performance to lose some of the hype as a dark horse in the Atlantic Coast Conference title chase.


That's a lesson that stays with the No. 24 Wolfpack now that Dave Doeren's team has its first national ranking in seven years entering Thursday night's visit from No. 17 Louisville.


''If we lose,'' senior Jaylen Samuels said of N.C. State's return to this week's AP Top 25 , ''we'll be right out of it.''


N.C. State (4-1, 2-0 ACC) has shaken off that season-opening loss to South Carolina, a game that saw the Wolfpack post more than double the number of yards and plays of the Gamecocks but lost 35-28 . There have been four straight wins since, including a get-over-the-hump win at Florida State for possibly the biggest win of Doeren's five-season tenure.


The Wolfpack started the season with more outside expectations than usual thanks to a veteran roster and depth built over years under Doeren. Now N.C. State - ranked for the first time since the final poll of 2010 - gets a shot at another Atlantic Division power in the Cardinals (4-1, 1-1), led by reigning Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson.


''Really we're just keeping everything inside the football facility,'' junior running back Nyheim Hines said. ''We're not trying to listen to what outside people say because after South Carolina, people were falling off the bandwagon. Now they're maybe back on it.''


The Cardinals are already in a hole in the division after a home loss to reigning national champion Clemson . A loss at N.C. State would all but end the Cardinals' hopes of making up ground on the Tigers and earning a trip to the ACC title game.


''They all run to the ball,'' Jackson said, ''they're all-out competing and they've been good so far this year.''


Louisville has spent the past two games since the Clemson loss earning lopsided wins against Kent State and Murray State by a combined margin of 97-13.


---


Some other things to know about Thursday night's Louisville-N.C. State game:


LIGHT-DUTY LAMAR: Louisville QB Lamar Jackson has played just five quarters over the past two weeks but has made the most of them. The junior has passed for 548 yards, rushed for 134 on 15 carries and combined for seven touchdowns. He threw a couple of interceptions against Kent State but feels like he corrected flaws while giving his body a chance to recharge. Asked about the benefits, he said, ''Just keeping my body fresh and keeping me focused with a big game coming up this week.''


CONTAINING JACKSON: N.C. State's stout defensive line, led by preseason AP all-American Bradley Chubb on the end, will have to keep Jackson from getting loose to make plays with his feet. ''We can't let him out of the pocket,'' Chubb said. ''All four of us have to do our job and collapse the pocket.''


STEPPING UP: Cardinals receiving leader Jaylen Smith will miss a third straight game with a wrist injury, creating another opportunity for others to fill the void. Five receivers have at least 100 yards, led by redshirt freshman Dez Fitzpatrick (280 yards, 6 TDs) and Seth Dawkins.


LAST YEAR'S ROMP: N.C. State nearly upset eventual national champion Clemson on the road last year, but Kyle Bambard missed a 33-yard field goal for the win at the end of regulation in an overtime loss. That game threw the Wolfpack in a midseason tailspin, which included a 54-13 loss at Louisville last year for a team that played close in nearly all its losses. ''We've tried to wipe it out, but it's been circled on a lot of people's calendars probably in the locker room,'' N.C. State's Nyheim Hines said. ''It was really embarrassing.''


BOTH RANKED: Louisville's visit to N.C. State will mark the first game between two ranked teams in the Wolfpack's Carter-Finley Stadium since 2000. In that game, Florida State won 58-14 when longtime Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers was an N.C. State freshman starter.

 

[CNOTES]

Big Ten Report - Week 6
October 3, 2017


2017 BIG 10 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Illinois 2-2 0-1 1-3 1-3
Indiana 2-2 0-2 2-2 2-2
Iowa 3-2 0-2 2-3 1-4
Maryland 3-1 1-0 3-1 3-1
Michigan 4-0 1-0 2-2 1-2-1
Michigan State 3-1 1-0 3-1 1-3
Minnesota 3-1 0-1 2-2 2-2
Nebraska 3-2 2-0 2-3 2-3
Northwestern 2-2 0-1 2-2 2-1-1
Ohio State 4-1 2-0 2-3 3-2
Penn State 5-0 2-0 3-1-1 1-4
Purdue 2-2 0-1 3-1 1-3
Rutgers 1-4 0-2 3-2 2-3
Wisconsin 4-0 1-0 2-2 3-1


Penn State (-15) at Northwestern – (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)


Northwestern played a great first half last week at Wisconsin and took a 10-7 lead to the break. The Badgers scored the next 24 points to pull away but the Cats didn’t quit. They scored two TD’s in a 2:00 minute span late in the 4th quarter to make a game of it before coming up short 33-24. The Cats really struggled to run the ball gaining only 25 yards on 34 carries. Part of that was due to the fact that star RB Justin Jackson was injured. He played in the game (only 9 carries) but didn’t practice much during the week. This isn’t a new problem as they have been held to less than 26 yards rushing in 2 of their 4 games this season. They rank 13th in the Big Ten running the ball (126 YPG) and that includes their huge 303 yard rushing performance against a terrible Bowling Green defense that ranks 117th nationally in rush defense.


NW will have to find a way to score points here. Against the two solid defenses they’ve faced, the offense has struggled to put the ball in the endzone. Against Duke they scored 17 points and last week it was 24 points, however 14 of those came very late in the 4th quarter when the game looked out of reach. Against a PSU team that is 2nd in the Big Ten in scoring at 41 PPG, points are a must


A win here would put Penn State at 6-0 for the first time since 2008. The Nittany Lions didn’t wait long last week to jump on Indiana outscoring them 28-0 in the first quarter including returning the opening kickoff for a TD and a fumble return for a TD. IU hung tough in the 2nd quarter and actually went into half down just 28-14 after trailing 28-0 after one quarter. The Nits defense held the Hoosiers scoreless in the 2nd half and won going away 45-14 getting the easy cover.


In the surprising stat of the day, PSU had only 39 yards rushing on 37 attempts and that’s with the nation’s top RB Barkley lining up in the backfield. Barkley averaged only 2.8 YPC in the game which was the 3rd lowest YPC total of his career. Interestingly enough, this Hoosier defense held Barkley to 1.8 YPC in last year’s meeting which was the 2nd lowest total of his career. For the game, IU outrushed Penn State 177 to 39. If you would have shown us those numbers before the game started, you can bet we would have had a very large play on Indiana. Keep an eye on TE Gesicki this week as he was injured in last week’s game and is one of QB McSorely’s favorite targets.


INSIDE THE NUMBERS – PSU continued on their pointspread roll covering again. They are now 12-1-1 ATS their last 14 games. The Lions are 13-5 SU in this series but Northwestern has won the last 2 meetings in 2014 & 2015. The Cats have been an underdog in 17 of the 18 games in this series with the exception being their game in 2001. The last time NW pulled an outright upset as a home dog of 14 or more was way back in 1991 when they topped Illinois 17-11 as a 21-point dog.


Illinois at Iowa (-18) – (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)


The Illini offense continues to look flat out bad. They scored just 6 points last Friday night vs Nebraska (28-6 loss) and they rank dead last in the Big Ten in scoring offense (17 PPG) and total offense (267 YPG). Not only are they last in total offense, they are last in rushing AND last in passing in the Big Ten. Nothing is working on that side of the ball for Illinois. QB Chayce Crouch has thrown only 1 TD pass the entire season and has been held to 145 passing or less in all four games, including throwing for less than 100 yards twice. Because of those struggles, head coach Lovie Smith has decided to make a switch at the all important QB position.


Jeff George Jr will get the starting on Iowa. George has played in just one game this season and looked OK throwing for 211 yards and a TD in the 2nd half vs USF. On the other side of the ball it isn’t much better. In fact, Illinois ranks dead last in the Big Ten in total defense as well. They’ve done a decent job, despite giving up a ton of yards, at keeping teams out of the endzone. Three of their four opponents have been “held” to 28 points or less which isn’t terrible when you’re allowing nearly 430 YPG.


Iowa has had back to back grueling losses. Two weeks ago they played host to PSU and the Nittany Lions drove the length of the field and scored a TD as time expired to beat the Hawks 21-19. Last week they traveled to Michigan State and were upended 17-10. Down 17-7 at half, the Hawkeyes had a few shots on the second half but coughed up a fumble at the MSU 5-yard line and the MSU 38-yard line and settled for a FG on another drive. It was an ugly offensive game with the two teams combining for just 526 total yards on 4.2 yards per play. Iowa’s defense has been very solid, however their offense continues to be as inconsistent as they come.


They are now 0-2 in the Big Ten with the offense scoring 19 & 10 points and they haven’t topped 275 yards in either of those two games. They have a grand total of 22 first downs in their two Big Ten games. Iowa’s rushing attack, which was supposed to be a strength with an experienced offensive line along with RB Wadley who had 1,100 yards rushing last year. It hasn’t been as Wadley had 17 carries for just 30 yards last week vs MSU. A week earlier he had 18 carries for 80 yards vs PSU however 35 of those yards came on one carry with just over 1:00 minute remaining in the game. With an inexperienced QB who isn’t a great passer, Iowa better figure out their running game quickly.


INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Last year Iowa traveled to Champaign as an 8-point favorite and crushed Illinois 28-0 holding them to less than 200 yards of total offense. This has been a low scoring series with each of the last 10 meetings ending with a final point total of 51 or less. This total is set at 43.5 as of Tuesday. Illinois has covered only 8 of their last 25 road games dating back to the 2011 season. The last time the Illini won in Iowa City was back in 1999. Since 1990, Iowa has been a favorite of 14 or more four times in this series and they are 3-1 ATS in those games.


Minnesota at Purdue (-3) – (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)


Minnesota, under the direction of new head coach PJ Fleck, came into last week’s game at home vs Maryland with a perfect 3-0 record. Now granted, those three wins vs Buffalo, Oregon St, and MTSU, were against teams that currently have a combined 4-9 record vs other FBS teams. Last week in their Big Ten opener the Gophs were stomped by Maryland and lost 31-24 as a double digit favorite. The game wasn’t as close as the final score and Minnesota, who came into the game with the best rush defense in the nation, couldn’t stop the Terps on the ground.


Maryland RB Ty Johnson averaged 7.7 YPC in the game and the Terps hit Minny for 262 yards rushing. Not bad against a team that had been allowing only 59 YPG rushing. The Minnesota offense is hard to get a great read on. They haven’t been great by any means. Their rushing attack has been up and down and their QB Rhoda is just OK. They rank 11th in the Big Ten in total offense (367 YPG) yet they haven’t faced a defense currently ranked higher than 47th nationally in total defense.


The Boilers had an extra week to stew over their home loss to Michigan two weeks ago. It was a game in which they hung around for a while and actually led 10-7 at half. The Wolverines wore the Boilers down in the 2nd half en route to a 28-10 win. Despite their week off, Purdue is fairly banged up heading into this game. Their starting QB David Blough has a bad shoulder and hasn’t yet been cleared for this game.


Leading rusher Tario Fuller is a longshot to play this weekend with an ankle injury. RB Markell Jones, who was going to be the starter this year, has been out all season but does have a shot to play in this one. They will also be without starting linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley and starting safety Jacob Thieneman for the first half against the Gophers. They were each ejected for targeting in the 2nd half of the Michigan game. The Boilermakers are obviously improved under new head coach Jeff Brohm coming in with a 2-2 record. Their losses came at the hands of Louisville and Michigan, two of the better teams in the country.


INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Minnesota is and impressive 15-5-3 ATS in their last 23 road games and 20-9-3 ATS in their last 32 Big Ten roadies. The favorite in this Big Ten series is 11-4-1 ATS the last 15 meetings. This has been a high scoring series with just 4 of the last 21 meetings falling below 50 combined points. Only 7 of those 21 games have fallen under 60 points. Saturday’s opening total was set at 49.


Maryland at Ohio State (-31) – (FOX, 4:00 p.m. ET)


The Terps aren’t getting much respect here coming off a big upset win over the previously undefeated Minnesota Gophers. After beating Minny 31-24 on the road, Maryland is now tabbed as a whopping 31-point dog at Ohio State this Saturday. The Terps come in with a 3-1 record including an impressive 10-point win at Texas to open the season. That win looks even better as we progress through the season as the Longhorns are looking like a very solid team.


Maryland’s lone loss was to a very good UCF team and the Terps just happened to lose their then starting QB Hill in the first quarter of that game. Hill was in because the QB who was under center to begin the season, Tyrell Pigrome, was injured late in the Texas game and lost for the season. Now with Hill also out for the season it’s up to 3rd stringer Max Bortenschlager. If last week is any indication, the Terrapins look like they are in decent hands. Bortenschlager had 2 passing TD’s, 1 rushing TD, and didn’t turn the ball over in their win vs Minnesota. He also has a very solid running game to support him as they are 3rd in the Big Ten averaging 233 YPG on the ground. Last week they put up 262 yards on the ground vs a Minnesota defense that came into the game ranked #1 in the NATION in rush defense.


On the flip side, the Maryland defense held Minnesota to just 80 yards on the ground. It was Maryland’s 2nd outright win this year as a double digit underdog (at Texas was the other). They were just 1-26 SU their previous 27 games as a double digit dog entering the season.


Just like clockwork, the Buckeyes continue to destroy Rutgers on the football field each and every season. Entering last week’s game vs the Scarlet Knights, the Buckeyes had won all 3 games (since Rutgers joined the Big Ten) in blowout fashion outscoring them by a combined 163-24! OSU walloped Rutgers again 56-0 last week so you can now make that combined score 219-24 over the last 4 seasons! Not much to see here. The Bucks obviously dominated rolling up 628 yards to just 209 for Rutgers. If you subtract OSU’s final possession of the game where they simply took a knee, the Buckeyes scored on 8 of their 13 possessions and were shut out on downs deep in Rutgers territory on another. The Knights, on the other hand, punted on 9 of their 13 possessions and threw interceptions on 2 others. With that win the Buckeyes have now won 42 of their last 45 Big Ten games.


INSIDE THE NUMBERS – These two have met 3 times since Maryland joined the league and OSU has won all three by an average score of 44-18. Last year’s meeting was a whitewashing as OSU won 62-3 at Maryland. OSU is just 5-14 ATS their last 19 home games. Buckeyes are only 1-7 ATS the last 8 times they’ve been tabbed a favorite of 30 or more.


Michigan State at Michigan – (ABC, 7:30 p.m. ET)


Sparty bounced back nicely last week and topped Iowa in their Big Ten opener after getting whipped on the scoreboard by Notre Dame a week earlier. MSU topped the Hawkeyes 17-10 scoring all 17 of their points in the first half. That included two TD’s in the first quarter and 121 of the Spartans 300 total yardage came in that first quarter. MSU had only 4 second half possessions and those included a missed FG, getting shut out on downs at the Iowa 30 yard line, and a punt from the Iowa 40 yard line. So they did have chances to extend the margin and put points on the board in the 2nd half but didn’t take advantage of them. The Spartan offense continues to struggle however putting up just 35 points over their last 2 games. They’ve put up only 4 offensive TD’s in their games vs Notre Dame & Iowa.


Defensively they are playing very well. They held the Hawkeyes to just 3.9 YPP and held a very potent Notre Dame offense semi in check with just 355 total yards. Their efforts through the first 4 games has the MSU defense ranked 5th nationally in total defense allowing 248 YPG. Now facing a Michigan offense that simply hasn’t been playing all that well, the Spartan defense will have a chance to shine again this Saturday. Believe it or not, this win gave Michigan State a 3-1 record on the season which actually matches their win total for all of last season.


Michigan had a bye last week giving them extra time to get ready for this huge rivalry game. The Wolverines will be without starting QB Wilton Speight for at least a few weeks so John O’Korn will handle the duties under center this Saturday. O’Korn is a senior who played the 2013 & 2014 seasons at Houston where he had nearly 700 pass attempts, obviously has plenty of experienced. He also stepped in two weeks ago vs Purdue when Speight was injured in the first quarter. O’Korn was 18 for 26 with 270 yards through the air and a TD in that game. Perhaps he can pump some life into a Michigan offense that has been subpar at best.


Versus Purdue the Wolverines were 3 for 3 scoring TD’s in the redzone with O’Korn at the helm after going just 1 for 10 in that stat in their previous 3 games. The defense isn’t a problem. They continue to play outstanding. Two weeks ago they held the Boilers to 10 points including keeping them off the board completely over the final 36 minutes of the game. They lead the Big Ten in total defense allowing 203 YPG on just 3.5 YPP. They are one of just 7 teams nationally allowing less than 4.0 YPP. They have allowed a grand total of 4 offensive TD’s in 4 games.


INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Michigan has won 7 of the last 9 meeting outright, however MSU has covered ALL 9 of those games. Going all the way back to 1982, the Spartans are 22-12-2 ATS vs their in-state rival Wolverines. The last four times Michigan has played host in this series, they’ve lost 3 of those 4 games outright. Since November of 2006, Michigan State is 31-18-1 ATS in road games. This is their first road game this season.


Wisconsin (-11.5) at Nebraska - (Big Ten, 8:00 p.m. ET)


With the exception of their game at BYU, the Badgers continue to get off to slow starts. Last week was no exception as they played host to Northwestern and trailed 10-7 at half. In earlier games vs inferior opponents they led Florida Atlantic just 21-14 with only a few seconds remaining in the first half and they were tied at 10 with Utah State at half. Despite struggling in the first half vs Northwester, Wisconsin then came out in the 2nd half and scored 24 consecutive points to pull ahead 31-10. NW scored on a few late drives to make things interesting but the Badgers came away with the 33-24 win. They outgained the Wildcats 306 to 244 despite running 22 fewer offensive plays. They played the game without one of their top receiving targets as TE Fumagalli who was out with a hamstring injury. He hopes to be back for this game.


Despite their first half problems, the Badgers have dominated this year in the 2nd half outscoring their opponents 98-14. The Badgers are one of three remaining Big Ten unbeaten teams along with Penn State and Michigan. They are 2nd in the league in YPG differential at +212 (Ohio State is first at +229). They are also 2nd in the Big Ten in per game point differential at +27 (PSU is first at +33).


The Huskers have had an extra day to get ready for this huge night game after winning at Illinois last Friday night. They rolled over the Illini 28-6 holding them to just 199 yards on 53 plays. In the Nebraska defense has allowed just 1 offensive TD in their two Big Ten games. Going back even further, they have given up only 2 offensive TD’s in their last three games. However, some perspective might be needed here as their two Big Ten games were against Rutgers & Illinois who rank 13th & 14th respectively in the conference in scoring (non-conference games included).


Offensively they looked much better partly because they didn’t give the ball away. QB Tanner Lee had thrown 9 interceptions this season coming into their game vs the Illini. He didn’t have a turnover against Illinois and threw 3 TD’s. With their win last Friday the Huskers sit alone in first place in the Big Ten West at 2-0. However, the Badgers have owned Nebraska and the Big Ten West as of late. In fact, these two have met 6 times since the Huskers joined the Big Ten and Wisky has won 5 of those meetings. The only Nebraska win in this series was here in 2012 by just 3 points.


INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Nebraska is 46-5 all time at home in night games including 20 consecutive wins. Wisconsin is 17-5 ATS their last 22 road games. The Huskers have been a home underdog of 10 or more just TWICE since 1980! They are 0-2 SU & ATS in those games vs USC & Missouri. The Badgers have been a road favorite of 10 or more 23 times since the start of the 1999 season. They are 8-15 ATS in those contests.

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 6
October 3, 2017


WEDNESDAY, OCT. 4


Matchup Skinny Edge


ARKANSAS STATE at GEORGIA SOUTHERN...Ark State 10-2 vs. line last 12 Sun Belt games. GaSo 4-11 vs. line for Summers since LY.
Arkansas State, based on team trends.


THURSDAY, OCT. 5


Matchup Skinny Edge

LOUISVILLE at NC STATE...’Ville on 2-7 spread skid since late LY. Just 2-5 last 7 vs. line away from Papa John’s. But Cards-0 SU (2-1 vs. line) against NCS since entering ACC. Pack 4-2 last six as dog after 0-5 mark in role in 2015.
Slight to NC State, based on recent trends.


FRIDAY, OCT. 6


Matchup Skinny Edge


MEMPHIS at UCONN...Edsall 0-4 vs. line TY, UConn now 3-14-1 last 18 on board dating to late 2015. Huskies 1-8 vs. spread last nine at Rentsch. Though Norvell just 4-10 vs. line last 14 on board.
Memphis, based on UConn woes.


BOISE STATE at BYU...Cougs now on 0-6 spread slump since late 2016. Boise a real money-burner lately, too, 2-9-1 last 12 on board. But Broncos are 7-2 vs. spread last 9 as visitor.
Boise State, based on road mark


SATURDAY, OCT. 7


Matchup Skinny Edge

ILLINOIS at IOWA...Road team has covered last three, though it was Iowa in two of those. Lovie 3-3 vs. line away but Illini just 8-17 vs. spread last 25 as visitor since 2012. Ferentz only 11-22 vs. spread as Iowa City chalk since 2012, though Hawkeyes have covered 6 of last 8 reg.-season games.
Iowa, based on Illini negatives.


NOTRE DAME at NORTH CAROLINA... Irish have covered first two as visitor TY after dropping all three in role LY (ND had some neutral games LY). Irish just 4-10 vs. spread as visiting chalk entering this season. Fedora no covers last four at Chapel Hill and just 7-14 as dog with Heels.
Slight to Notre Dame, based on recent trends.


WESTERN MICHIGAN at BUFFALO...Buffalo off to 4-1 vs. line early TY, covered first two away after 1-5 vs. spread on road LY. WMU 2-3 vs. line post-Fleck, and two covers last seven since late LY.
Buffalo, based on recent trends.


EASTERN MICHIGAN at TOLEDO...Toledo now on 3-9-1 spread skid since early LY. Eagles on 13-4 spread uptick since early LY.
Eastern Michigan, based on recent trends.


CENTRAL MICHIGAN at OHIO...Fading CMU now on 3-12 spread skid (1-4 TY). Solich 4-1 vs. line TY including 2-0 at Athens after 1-5 spread mark as host LY. Solich was 6-2 as home chalk in 2014-15.
Ohio, based on recent trends.


BALL STATE at AKRON...Ball 7-2-1 vs. spread away for Neu since LY. Zips just 2-6 vs. spread at Infocision since LY.
Ball State, based on team trends.

BOWLING GREEN at MIAMI-OHIO...Jinks 0-5 vs. line TY, 4-13 since taking over Falcs LY.
Miami-Ohio, based on BG negatives.


MARSHALL at CHARLOTTE...49ers 1-7 last 8 vs. spread since late LY, Herd 4-0 vs. line in so far a bounce-back 2017.
Marshall, based on team trends.

UCF at CINCINNATI...Cincy 6-14-1 last 21 on board and 1-9 vs. spread last 10 at Nippert. Scott Frost whipped Bearcats LY and is 11-5 vs. spread with Knights.
UCF, based on team trends.


GEORGIA STATE at COASTAL CAROLINA...GSU 19-6 vs. line as visitor since 2013 (1-1 TY), and has covered 6 of last 7 on Belt road.
Georgia State, based on team trends.


PENN STATE at NORTHWESTERN...Note that Pat Fitz is 3-0 SU and vs. line against James Franklin, dating to 2012 NU-Vandy game. Franklin was 0-4 as road chalk with Nittany until LY when covering all 3, but 0-1 in role TY. Cats 14-8 last 21 as dog.
Northwestern, based on team and coach trends.


TEMPLE at EAST CAROLINA...Owls now 1-4 vs. line TY, but ECU 2-11-1 last 14 on board. Owls won and covered last 2 years.
Temple, based on series trends.


DUKE at VIRGINIA...Cutcliffe on 36-19-1 spread uptick but has lost last two years vs. Cavs. Bronco Mendenhall two straight wins and covers after dropping previous six vs. line.
Slight to Virginia, based on recent series trends.


PITT at SYRACUSE...Narduzzi just 7-13 last 20 vs. spread though has covered 4 of last 7 on road. Pitt on 4-game SU win streak in series. Babers just 3-6 vs. spread at Carrier Dome since LY.
Slight to Pitt, based on series trends.


VIRGINIA TECH at BOSTON COLLEGE...BC 2-11 vs. line last 13 at Chestnut Hill, no covers last 7 as home dog. VPI 7-2 last 9 vs. line.
Virginia Tech, based on team trends.


NEW MEXICO STATE at APP STATE...Ags 4-0-1 vs. line TY, on 11-4-1 spread run since early LY. App 2-9 vs. line last 11 at Boone.
New Mexico State, based on team trends.


MARYLAND at OHIO STATE...Urban Meyer no covers last four at Big Horseshoe. Terps have covered first two away TY. Road team has covered last three in series.
Maryland, based on recent trends.

WAKE FOREST at CLEMSON...Clawson 3-0 vs. line against Dabo since 2014. Deacs 9-2 vs. line last 11 away from home, and Clawson 7-1 last 8 as dog. Dabo just 5-6-1 last 12 as Death Valley chalk.
Wake Forest, based on series and team trends.


MINNESOTA at PURDUE...Brohm 3-1 vs. line with Purdue, 16-6-1 last 23 on board at WKU & Purdue. Fleck teams, however, on 13-6-1 spread run since late 2015.
Slight to Purdue, based on Brohm marks.


MICHIGAN STATE at MICHIGAN... Dantonio has covered last nine and 9-0-1 last ten vs. spread against Michigan since taking over MSU in 2007. Spartans 14-4 last 18 as dog (though 0-1 TY).
Michigan State, based on team and series trends.


SOUTHERN MISS at TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO...USM surprising 3–1 vs. line TY, covers 5-1 last six since late LY, though Golden Eagles dropped eight straight vs. spread prior. UTSA on 7-2 spread uptick since mid 2016.
UTSA, based on recent trends.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at UTEP...Ugh! No covers yet for either TY, UTEP on 5-10-1 spread skid since LY. Miners just 1-6 vs. line last seven vs. FBS foes at Sun Bowl.
Western Kentucky, based on UTEP woes.


STANFORD at UTAH...Ugh! Whittingham beat Shaw outright as dog in their only two meetings, 2013-14. Utes 4-0 vs. line TY, on 8-2 spread surge since mid 2016. Tree no covers last three on road since late LY after away success prior.
Utah, based on team and series trends.


UL-LAFAYETTE at IDAHO...Ooh-La La (ULL) 0-4 vs. line TY including 0-2 as road dog, Cajuns were 3-0 in role LY. Dog and road team has covered all four Idaho games TY, Vandals on 10-2 spread uptick.
Idaho, based on team trends.


COLORADO STATE at UTAH STATE...Bobo has now covered 7 straight and 9 of last 10 as visitor. Utags 2-7 last nine as underdog.
Colorado State, based on team trends.

TULSA at TULANE...Tulsa 12-4 vs. spread away from home since Montgomery arrived in 2015. Tulsa has won and covered last three meetings. Fritz, however, has covered 4 of last 5 since late LY.
Tulsa, based on extended road trends.


ARMY at RICE...As home dog, Rice 2-0 LY, though Owls 1-4 vs. line in 2017. Army 7-3-2 vs. spread as visitor since 2015.
Slight to Army, based on team trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE at UNLV...Aztecs have whipped Rebs the past two years. UNLV just 1-4 as home dog since 2015. SDS 7-3 vs. spread last ten visiting in MW.
SDSU, based on team and series trends.

AIR FORCE at NAVY...Home team has now won and covered four straight in series. Mids 12-4-1 vs. spread last 17 at Annapolis. Falcs however 5-1 last six as visiting dog.
Slight to Navy, based on series and team trends.


ARKANSAS at SOUTH CAROLINA...Muschamp only 2-5 vs. spread last seven at Williams-Brice. Bielema 6-1 last seven as visiting dog.
Arkansas, based on team trends.


ARIZONA at COLORADO...Rich-Rod no covers last five and 1-8 last 9 vs. spread on Pac-12 road. Buffs have covered last two in series though are 0-3 vs. line at Boulder in 2017.
Colorado, based on UA negatives.


TEXAS TECH at KANSAS...Beaty 0-3-1 vs. line TY though 3-0-2 as Lawrence dog since LY. Jayhawks are 2-1-1 vs. line last four vs. Tech. Kingsbury 0-3 as road chalk since 2014.
Kansas, based on team and series trends.

CAL at WASHINGTON...Wilcox is 3-0 as dog TY after Sonny Dykes was 4-9 as short previous two seasons. Huskies just 1-4 vs. spread last five as Seattle chalk.
California, based on recent trends.


WASHINGTON STATE at OREGON...Cougs have surprisingly covered seven straight in series, which includes some of the Ducks glory years. Ducks 5-11 vs. line at Eugene since 2015 (2-1 for Taggart).
Washington State, based on team trends.

FIU at MTSU...FIU 3-1-1 as road dog since LY and has covered three straight vs. MTSU. Blue Raiders 4-6-1 last 11 at Murfreesboro.
Slight to FIU, based on team and series trends.

OREGON STATE at USC...Beavers have only beaten SC outright three times since the great 3-0 upset of 1967, all of those at Corvallis. Beavs no covers first five TY. Helton 7-3 vs. line last 10 at Coliseum (1-2 TY).
USC, based on series and team trends.


ULM at TEXAS STATE...TSU 4-8 vs. line last 12 at home, though covered last three vs. ULM. Four straight road covers for Warhawks.
ULM, based on team trends.

GEORGIA at VANDERBILT...Dores have covered last four and five of last six in series. Derek Mason 6-1 last 7 as home dog before Bama loss. Georgia however on 5-1 spread uptick since late LY.
Slight to Vanderbilt, based on series trends.

WEST VIRGINIA at TCU...Holgorsen has covered three of last four vs. Patterson, as dog however WVU just 1-6 last seven overall. Frogs rolling again but they’re only 1-7 last 8 as Fort Worth chalk (1-1 TY).
Slight to West Virginia, based on team and series trends.


LA TECH at UAB...UAB 3-1 vs. line TY, Bill Clark 5-3 as dog since 2014. Skip Holtz 14-6 vs. line last 20 as visitor, however.
La Tech, based on team trends.

KENT STATE at NORTHERN ILLINOIS... NIU on 10-1-1 spread run since mid 2016. Kent State 1-5 last six vs. line since late 2016.
NIU, based on team trends.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at OLD DOMINION...ODU has covered last three years vs. FAU and is 7-1-1 vs. line last nine at Norfolk.
ODU, based on team trends.


LSU at FLORIDA...Orgeron 4-1 vs. line away from Baton Rouge as Tiger coach. McElwain 8-12-1 last 21 on board.
Slight to LSU, based on team trends.

IOWA STATE at OKLAHOMA...Matt Campbell teams at Toledo and ISU now 18-10-1 as dog after Texas loss (he’s 7-4 as dog with Cyclones). ISU had dropped four straight vs. line to Sooners prior to cover LY. Lincoln Riley 2-0 as Norman chalk TY after Stoops was 8-3 in role previous two seasons.
Slight to Iowa State, based on Campbell dog marks.

SMU at HOUSTON...Ponies have covered last two years and scored 38-16 upset in 2016. Cougs 0-5-1 as home chalk since LY. SMU 5-1 as road dog since LY and now on 12-4 spread uptick.
SMU, based on team trends.

MISSOURI at KENTUCKY...Mizzou on 3-9 spread skid, 2-9 last 11 vs. FBS foes. UK has won and covered last two meetings and 3-1 vs. line last four as SEC host.
Kentucky, based on team and recent series trends.


WISCONSIN at NEBRASKA...Badgers have beaten Huskers SU last four meetings and are 4-1 vs. line last five in series. Riley 0-3 vs. line at Lincoln this season.
Wisconsin, based on series and team trends.


OLE MISS at AUBURN...After dropping 8 straight vs. line, Auburn now has 2 covers in a row, continuing streaky spread trending. Rebs 0-4 vs. line for Matt Luke, 0-6 last 6 and 1-11 last 12 vs. number since mid 2016.
Auburn, based on Ole Miss woes.


KANSAS STATE at TEXAS...Tom Herman now has three straight covers since opening loss. Bill Snyder, however, 4-1 as road dog LY, and 33-17 as dog since returning to KSU in 2009.
Kansas State, if dog, based on Snyder dog mark.


ALABAMA at TEXAS A&M...Saban has won and covered last three vs. Sumlin, and Bama now 8-1 last nine as visiting chalk. A&M 6-17-1 vs. spread last 24 at Kyle Field, Sumlin 2-6 last 8 as dog.
Alabama, based on team and recent series trends.


FRESNO STATE at SAN JOSE STATE...Tedford 4-0 vs. line TY, Bulldogs cover in last 6 and 9 of last 11 since mid 2016. Spartans no covers last four TY.
Fresno State, based on recent trends.

HAWAII at NEVADA...Pack 2-6 vs. spread last 8 in Reno. Nevada no covers last four TY.
Slight to Hawaii, based on Nevada negatives.

 

[CNOTES]

Friday's Tip Sheet
October 4, 2017


**Memphis at Connecticut**


-- As of late Wednesday morning, Memphis (3-1 straight up, 1-3 against the spread) was installed as a 14-point favorite with a total of 73.5 points. The Huskies were +450 on the money line (risk $100 to win $450).


-- Mike Norvell’s squad won its first three games vs. ULM (37-29), vs. UCLA (48-45), vs. So. Illinois (44-31). Memphis caught the Bruins in a great spot for the Tigers, who faced Jim Mora Jr.’s team at noon Eastern in the hot, muggy weather of Tennessee in mid-September. Also, with its game at UCF in Week 2 cancelled, Memphis had two weeks to prepare for UCLA. In back-and-forth shootout, the Tigers prevailed as three-point home underdogs. Riley Ferguson completed 23-of-38 passes for 398 yards and six touchdowns with only one interception. Darrell Henderson rushed 14 times for 105 yards, while Anthony Miller hauled in nine receptions for 185 yards, including TD grabs from 12 and 33 yards out.


-- Memphis has failed to cover the number in a pair of games as a double-digit favorite this season. Since Norvell took over for Justin Fuente prior to the 2016 campaign, the Tigers have limped to a 2-5 spread record in seven games as double-digit favorites.


-- Memphis took its first defeat in Orlando last week when Central Florida coasted to a 40-13 win as a 5.5-point home favorite. The Tigers took their only lead midway through the first quarter at 7-6 on a Patrick Taylor Jr. two-yard TD run. The Knights responded with 34 unanswered points until Ferguson found Damonte Cox for a meaningless 14-yard TD strike on the game’s final play. UCF enjoyed a 603-396 advantage in total offense. Ferguson completed 27-of-49 throws for 321 yards and one TD, but he was intercepted three times. Pollard had three catches for 75 yards, while Miller was held to 37 receiving yards on merely three grabs.


-- Memphis has one of the nation’s premier kick returners in Tony Pollard, who was the AAC Special Teams Player of the Year as a freshman in 2016. Pollard has already matched his two kickoff returns for TDs like he had last season. He also has seven catches for 131 yards and one TD.


-- This is Memphis’s first road ‘chalk’ spot of the season. The Tigers went 2-2 ATS as road favorites in Norvell’s first year at the helm. Meanwhile, UConn is 5-9 ATS in its last 14 games as a home underdog.


-- Ferguson hasn’t been as sharp as he was in 2016 when his completing percentage was higher (63.2%), and he threw for 3,698 yards with a 32/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In four games this year, which has included a pair of weak foes in ULM from the Sun Belt Conference and an FCS school in So. Illinois, Ferguson has connected on just 55.4 percent of his passes for 1,104 yards with a 9/5 TD-INT ratio. Miller, who had 95 receptions for 1,434 yards and 14 TDs in ’16, has 20 catches for 292 yards and three TDs. Joey Magnifico, a sophomore tight end, has 11 grabs for 152 yards and 10 TDs.


-- Henderson has run for a team-best 393 yards and three TDs while averaging an eye-popping 8.9 yards per carry. Patrick Taylor Jr. has added 276 rushing yards and three TDs with a 5.3 YPC average. Taylor also has seven receptions for 87 yards and one TD.


-- Memphis wasn’t very stout defensively in ’16, giving up 28.8 PPG. Those defensive numbers are even worse through four games in ’17. The Tigers are ranked No. 126 of 130 FBS teams in total defensive, surrendering 513.5 yards per game. They are No. 127 versus the pass, No. 100 at defending the run and No. 114 in scoring defense (36.2 PPG)


-- Memphis has three key players listed as ‘questionable’ with undisclosed injuries, including starting LB Curtis Akins, starting WR Phil Mayhue and Taylor. Akins missed the loss at UFC but in the first three games, he produced 23 tackles (21 solo), 1.5 tackles for loss, two forced fumbles and two passes broken up. Mayhue has 10 receptions for 123 yards and one TD, and he also completed his only pass attempt on a trick play for 18 yards. Norvell dismissed starting safety Shaun Rupert from the program before the UCF loss last week. Rupert had contributed 14 tackles (all solo), three PBU and one interception for a 36-yard return in the Tigers’ first three games.


-- UConn (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS) will be without two starters on offense. Junior WR Hergy Mayala is out until at least late October with an ankle injury, while junior center Ryan Crozier is done for the season with a torn ACL. Crozier started all 12 games for the Huskies in 2016. Mayala had 11 receptions for 183 yards and three TDs in UConn’s first two games, but he’s miss a second straight contest vs. Memphis.


-- Randy Edsall is in the first season of his second tenure at UConn after a failed five-year stay at Maryland, where his teams limped to a 23-39 record from 2011-2015. Edsall put the Huskies program on the map while going 70-63 with five postseason appearances and a 3-2 bowl record from 1999-2010.


-- UConn opened the year with a 27-20 non-covering win over New Hampshire as a 22-point home ‘chalk.’ Since then, Edsall’s squad has dropped three in a row both SU and ATS at Virginia (38-18), vs. East Carolina (41-38) and at SMU (49-28). UConn pulled into a 28-28 tie at SMU on the first play of the fourth quarter last week when QB Bryant Shirrefffs found Keylon Dixon on a 59-yard scoring strike. However, the Mustangs would score 21 unanswered points in the last 11:46 to garner the spread cover as 17-point home favorites. The 77 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 74.5-point total on SMU’s last TD with 4:24 remaining.


-- Shirreffs is playing the best football of his career in his senior campaign. He was outstanding at SMU, completing 22-of-28 passes for 408 yards and two TDs without an interception. Aaron McLean had five catches for 122 yards and one TD, while Dixon had four receptions for 84 yards and one TD.


-- Shireffs came into the year with a 17/14 career TD-INT ratio. Shirreffs has connected on 68.9 percent of his passes for 1,165 yards with an 8/2 TD-INT ratio. His favorite target has been RB Arkeel Newsome, who has 15 catches for 311 yards and one TD. Newsome also has a rushing TD to his credit.


-- UConn RB Nate Hopkins has rushed for a team-best 223 yards and five TDs with a 4.7 YPC average. Kevin Mensah has run for 167 yards and one TD while averaging 5.6 YPC.


-- Although UConn is ranked 12th in the nation in passing yards and 31st in total offense (467.0 YPG), it is ranked only 78th in scoring with a 27.8 PPG average. The defense has been another story altogether. The Huskies are last in the country at defending the pass, No. 127 of 130 FBS squads in total defense and No. 117 in scoring defense (37.0 PPG).


-- These schools have only met twice with the home team winning in blowout fashion both times. In 2013, UConn rolled to a 45-10 win as a one-point home underdog in its regular-season finale. Then in ’14, Memphis trounced the Huskies by a 41-10 count as a 21.5-point home ‘chalk.’


-- The ‘over’ is 3-1 overall for both schools, but the ‘under’ is 1-0 in the Tigers’ lone previous road assignment. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 71.8 points per game. Meanwhile, UConn has seen the ‘over’ hit in its last three games, but it is just 1-1 in its home outings. The Huskies have seen their games average combined scores of 64.8 PPG.


-- ESPN will provide the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.


**Boise State at Brigham Young**


-- As of late Wednesday morning, most spots had Boise State (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) listed as a nine-point favorite with a total of 44. The Cougars were +450 on the money line (risk $100 to win $450).


-- Boise State has a pair of home wins vs. Troy (24-13) and vs. New Mexico (28-14). The Broncos lost at Washington State and at home to Virginia before going into their open date last weekend.


-- Bryan Harsin’s team allowed a 31-10 lead get with less than nine minutes left in the fourth quarter of a 47-44 triple-overtime loss at still-undefeated Washington State in Week 2. Nevertheless, the Broncos covered the number as 7.5-point underdogs. With a 31-17 advantage with less than six minutes remaining, back-up QB and Kansas grad transfer Montell Cozart threw a terrible interception that turned into a 36-yard pick-six. The Cougars would pull even and force overtime with a TD at the 1:44 mark of the final stanza. Other than the pick-six, Cozart played well in relief of the injured Brett Rypien, the junior signal caller who earned first-team All-Mountain West Conference honors in his first two collegiate campaigns. Cozart completed 12-of-20 throws for 161 yards and two TDs with one interception. He also rushed for a team-high 72 yards and one TD on 14 attempts. Cedrick Wilson had nine catches for 147 yards in the losing effort.


-- BSU was handed its worst home loss in 16 years in its last outing two weeks ago. Virginia had dropped 20 of its past 21 road assignments and came to the smurf turf as a 14-point underdog. By early in the fourth quarter on the blue carpet, UVA had a 42-14 lead and the Broncos were finished. They added a safety and a TD in the last 2:07 to make the 42-23 final score look more respectable. After missing the win over UNM and most of three quarters at Washington State, Rypien completed 24-of-42 throws for 285 yards vs. UVA. However, he didn’t have a TD pass and was intercepted once. Wilson had 13 receptions for 209 yards and one TD.


-- For the season, Rypien has completed 44-of-73 passes (60.3%) for 521 yards with a 0/2 TD-INT ratio. Cozart has connected on 37-of-59 throws (62.7%) for 416 yards with a 6/1 TD-INT ratio. Cozart has also rushed for a team-best 191 yards and two TDs with a 5.3 YPC average. Wilson has 29 receptions for 485 yards and three TDs. Senior TE Jake Roh has 11 catches for 87 yards and three TDs.


-- Boise State owns an 11-6 spread record in 17 games as a road favorite during Harsin’s four-year tenure. Harsin’s record at BSU is 33-11, going 2-1 in bowl games.


-- BSU junior CB Michael Young was suspended indefinitely after his arrest for DUI two days after the loss vs. UVA. He had four tackles in a reserve role in two games played at WSU and vs. UNM.


-- I’ve been calling BYU (1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS) the nation’s biggest disappointment for weeks and nothing changed that notion last Friday night in Logan, where Utah State captured a 40-24 win over the Cougars as a one-point home underdog. BYU led 21-7 early in the second quarter before Jalen Davis intercepted Beau Hoge and turned it into a 30-yard pick-six. Davis would turn three interceptions into 95 return yards and two TDs before the night was over. Koy Detmer Jr. would struggle in relief of Hoge, completing only 7-of-20 passes for 91 yards with three interceptions.


-- Not that BYU starting QB Tanner Mangum was playing well with a 2/4 TD-INT ratio in the team’s first three games, but he is nonetheless missed desperately yet remains ‘out’ indefinitely with an ankle injury. Now Hoge, who has a 2/3 TD-INT ratio, is listed as ‘questionable’ vs. BSU due to a head injury. If Hoge can’t go Friday night, Detmer will presumably get the starting nod.


-- Since opening the season with a 20-6 non-covering home win over Portland State, BYU has lost four in a row with three defeats coming by margins of 16 points or more. The Cougars lost 27-0 to LSU in New Orleans in Week 2. Next, they lost back-to-back home games vs. Utah (19-13) and vs. Wisconsin (40-6). Kalani Sitake’s team had two weeks to prepare for Utah State, yet came up way short.


-- BYU is 0-2-1 ATS in three games as a home underdog on Sitake’s watch.


-- BYU has seen the ‘over’ hit in back-to-back games after the ‘under’ cashed in its first three contests. The ‘under’ is 2-1 in its three home outings. The Cougars’ five games have averaged combined scores of 39.0 PPG.


-- BYU is ranked No. 129 of 130 FBS teams in total offense. The Cougars are No. 126 in scoring, mustering merely 12.6 PPG. They are No. 118 in both rushing and passing offense.


-- Totals have been an overall wash for BSU (2-2), but the ‘over’ cashed in its lone road assignment. The Broncos’ games have averaged combined scores of 58.8 PPG, but bettors must take into account that their loss at Washington State had 29 points scored in the three extra sessions.


-- Kickoff is scheduled for 10:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.


**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**


-- Washington State is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a road underdog under Mike Leach. As of Wednesday, the Cougars were short ‘dogs Saturday at Oregon. The Ducks are dealing with injuries galore, although star RB Royce Freeman was upgraded to ‘probable’ (arm injury) after practicing on Tuesday. Nevertheless, starting QB Justin Herbert (9/2 TD-INT) is ‘out’ with a collarbone injury and his back-up Taylor Allie was ‘questionable’ as of early Wednesday. Seven other Ducks were listed as ‘questionable,’ including their top two WRs Dillon Mitchell (19 catches, 220 yards & two TDs) and Charles Nelson, in addition to starting TE Jacob Breeland and safety Khalil Oliver. Furthermore, starting LB Kaulane Apelu went down with a season-ending injury last week. Apelu had recorded 20 tackles, three TFL’s and one PBU in Oregon’s first five games.


-- Stanford sophomore LB Sean Barton is out for the rest of the season with a knee injury. Barton had 35 tackles, two sacks and 3.5 TFL’s as a freshman in ’16. The Cardinal was favored by 5.5 points at Utah late Wednesday morning. Utah is dealing with several crucial injuries. Senior DE Kyle Fitts is ‘doubtful’ with a leg injury, while starting QB Tyler Huntley is ‘doubtful’ due to an arm injury. Fitts has contributed 11 tackles, two sacks, one forced fumble and one QB hurry. Huntley has completed 88-of-120 attempts (73.3%) for 966 yards with a 6/2 TD-INT ratio. He also has rushed for 208 yards and three TDs. Fortunately for the Utes, they have an experienced back-up QB in Troy Williams, who led them to a 9-4 record in 13 starts last year. Williams had a 15/8 TD-INT ratio along with five rushing scores in ’16. Thus far this season, Williams has completed only 9-of-19 throws for 131 yards. He’s rushed for 17 yards and one TD on five carries.


-- Darren Carrington, Utah’s grad transfer WR from Oregon, has 30 receptions for 485 yards and four TDs. The Utes own an 8-4 spread record in 12 games as home ‘dogs during Kyle Whittingham’s 13-year tenure. Meanwhile, Stanford has compiled a 17-10 ATS ledger in 27 games as a road favorite on David Shaw’s watch.


-- Indiana has named Peyton Ramsey as its starting QB moving forward. Ramsey has been more effective than senior Richard Lagow, who started all 13 games for IU last year. Ramsey, a redshirt freshman, has completed 60.4 percent of his passes for 316 yards with a 4/1 TD-INT ratio. He’s also run for 127 yards and one TD. The 2-2 Hoosiers are off this week before hosting Michigan on Oct. 14.


-- UCLA tight end Caleb Wilson is out for the season after sustaining a foot injury in last week’s 27-23 home win over Colorado. This is a huge loss for the Bruins. Wilson had 38 receptions for 490 yards and one TD in their first five games.


-- Eastern Michigan owns a 7-1 spread record in its last eight games as a road underdog. The Eagles are 13.5-point ‘dogs Saturday at Toledo.

 

[CNOTES]

Major line move for Miami/Florida St. in early NCAAF Week 6 betting
Patrick Everson


"After opening as a small ‘dog, Miami quickly moved to a 3.5-point road favorite over an FSU squad coming off of its first win of the season."


No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas A&M Aggies (+25)


Alabama looked just fine through the season’s first three weeks, posting three relatively easy victories, though it failed to cover in two of those. The last two weeks, however, the Crimson Tide has been an absolute wrecking ball. In Week 4, the Tide belted host Vanderbilt 59-0 laying 19.5 points, then resumed the destruction Saturday in a 66-3 steamrolling of Mississippi as a massive 30-point home favorite.


Texas A&M (4-1 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) has won four in a row since allowing a shocking comeback at UCLA in the season opener. In Week 5, the Aggies held off South Carolina 24-17 to push as a 7-point home chalk. Despite A&M’s upswing of late, oddsmakers aren’t giving the Aggies any shot at home.


“With their 66-3 thrashing of Ole Miss on Saturday, Alabama was one of the public’s biggest winners for the second straight week,” Mason said. “Now that the Crimson Tide have outscored their last two opponents by a combined score of 125-3, it’s obvious as to why more bettors are on ‘Bama than any other team so far. Only 6 percent – yes, 6 – of the bets are on A&M.”


Michigan State Spartans at No. 7 Michigan Wolverines (-11.5)


Michigan got through September without too much trouble, going 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS, while finishing out the month with a week off. In Week 4, the Wolverines trailed Purdue 10-7 at halftime, but shut out the Boilermakers the rest of the way in a 28-10 victory as a 13.5-point road fave.


Michigan State (3-1 SU and ATS) will be on the road for the first time this year when it travels to the Big House. The Spartans topped Iowa 17-10 in Week 5, cashing as a 3.5-point home favorite.


“Michigan opened 11.5-point chalk before moving up to the current -13.5,” Mason said Sunday evening. “Loyal Michigan State bettors have made a small fortune in this rivalry over the last decade, as the Spartans covered in each of the last nine meetings versus the Wolverines. Despite this lopsided betting trend, 59 percent of the early tickets are on Michigan.”


Later Sunday, the line ticked up another full point to Michigan -14.5.


No. 23 West Virginia Mountaineers at No. 10 Texas Christian Horned Frogs (-11)


Texas Christian had its bye last week, following one of this season’s more impressive victories. The Horned Frogs (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) went to red-hot Oklahoma State as a 9-point underdog in Week 4 and left with a 44-31 outright victory.


West Virginia (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) enters this matchup on equal rest, also getting a bye in Week 5. The Mountaineers rolled Kansas 56-34 – their third straight game scoring 56 or more – in Week 4 as a 23.5-point road chalk.


“The last time we saw TCU in action – versus Oklahoma State two weeks ago – the Horned Frogs were one of the biggest college football winners of the season for BetOnline,” Mason said. “TCU quickly moved to 12-point favorites. About 43 percent of early bettors are counting on a West Virginia cover.”


No. 12 Miami Hurricanes at Florida State (-1)


Miami only has three games under its belt so far, thanks to a canceled nonconference game due to Hurricane Irma. The ‘Canes (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) seem to be rounding into form, though, coming off a 31-6 rout of Duke giving 5.5 points on the road Friday night.


Florida State (1-2 SU, 0-2-1 ATS) lost starting quarterback Deondre Francois in its Week 1 loss to Alabama, then like Miami had its Week 2 game canceled. The Seminoles finally cracked the win column Saturday, getting a last-minute touchdown in a 26-19 victory over Wake Forest to push as a 7-point favorite.


Mason said the line in this ACC clash jumped the fence in a hurry.


“After opening as a small ‘dog, Miami quickly moved to a 3.5-point road favorite over an FSU squad coming off of its first win of the season and a backdoor push,” Mason said. “Even though the ‘Canes haven’t beaten the Seminoles outright since 2009, 85 percent of early bettors are pounding Miami.”

 

[CNOTES]

Sharps are closely monitoring these Week 6 college football games
Steve Merril


Florida's offense has scored 28 points or less in three of their four games this season and will now be facing a tough LSU defense that has allowed just 19.4 points per game.


Sharps have flagged these games as lines to keep an eye on for Week 6:


Spread to bet now:


Toledo (-13.5) vs. Eastern Michigan


Toledo opened at -13 and was quickly bet higher to -13.5. Play this game before it hits the key number of -14 or higher. Toledo enters with extra preparation time off a bye week and the Rockets are taking a big step down in class after facing Miami-Florida two weeks ago. Toledo's offense was strong in that loss, scoring 30 points on 429 total yards.


Eastern Michigan does not have the advantage of a bye week and they enter this game off back-to-back close losses versus Ohio and Kentucky which could leave the Eagles flat. Eastern Michigan is the substantially weaker offensive team in this game, averaging just 20 points per game and 4.9 yards per play this season (versus opponents that allow 27 ppg and 5.6 yppl).


Spread to wait on:


Kent State (+23.5) at Northern Illinois


This line opened at +23 and has already risen higher to +23.5. Wait for it to hit the key number of +24 or more. Kent State is battle-tested as they enter conference play after playing a tough non-conference schedule that included road games at Clemson and Louisville.


Northern Illinois is 4-0 ATS, but they have only been a point spread favorite in one game this season. This game is a possible letdown spot after big road games at Nebraska and San Diego State the past two weeks. Covering this big number might be difficult with an offense that has underperformed this season, averaging just 26.7 points per game on 5.1 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 28.1 ppg on 5.5 yppl).


Total to watch:


LSU at Florida (46.5)


After a high-scoring game in 2015 (LSU 35-28), these teams played a low-scoring contest last year (Florida 16-10). That score was misleading as LSU held a 423-270 total yard edge, but could not overcome a 2-0 turnover deficit.


Florida's offense has scored 28 points or less in three of their four games this season and will now be facing a tough LSU defense that has allowed just 19.4 points per game on 4.8 yards per play this year (versus opponents that average 22.2 ppg on 5.2 yppl). LSU's offense has scored 27 points or less in three of their four games versus FBS opponents this season.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Long Sheet


Wednesday, October 4


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ARKANSAS ST (1 - 2) at GA SOUTHERN (0 - 3) - 10/4/2017, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARKANSAS ST is 1-0 against the spread versus GA SOUTHERN over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST is 1-0 straight up against GA SOUTHERN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Thursday, October 5


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LOUISVILLE (4 - 1) at NC STATE (4 - 1) - 10/5/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NC STATE is 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOUISVILLE is 2-0 against the spread versus NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
LOUISVILLE is 2-0 straight up against NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Friday, October 6


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MEMPHIS (3 - 1) at CONNECTICUT (1 - 3) - 10/6/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 75-104 ATS (-39.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
MEMPHIS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CONNECTICUT is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BOISE ST (2 - 2) at BYU (1 - 4) - 10/6/2017, 10:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BYU is 2-0 against the spread versus BOISE ST over the last 3 seasons
BYU is 1-1 straight up against BOISE ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, October 7


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ILLINOIS (2 - 2) at IOWA (3 - 2) - 10/7/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ILLINOIS is 123-162 ATS (-55.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 123-162 ATS (-55.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 81-124 ATS (-55.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
IOWA is 1-1 against the spread versus ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
IOWA is 2-0 straight up against ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NOTRE DAME (4 - 1) at N CAROLINA (1 - 4) - 10/7/2017, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N CAROLINA is 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
NOTRE DAME is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
NOTRE DAME is 31-12 ATS (+17.8 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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W MICHIGAN (3 - 2) at BUFFALO (3 - 2) - 10/7/2017, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
W MICHIGAN is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
W MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
W MICHIGAN is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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E MICHIGAN (2 - 2) at TOLEDO (3 - 1) - 10/7/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TOLEDO is 77-54 ATS (+17.6 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
TOLEDO is 48-27 ATS (+18.3 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
E MICHIGAN is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TOLEDO is 1-1 against the spread versus E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
TOLEDO is 2-0 straight up against E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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C MICHIGAN (2 - 3) at OHIO U (4 - 1) - 10/7/2017, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
C MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus OHIO U over the last 3 seasons
C MICHIGAN is 1-0 straight up against OHIO U over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALL ST (2 - 3) at AKRON (2 - 3) - 10/7/2017, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALL ST is 72-50 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road games since 1992.
BALL ST is 72-50 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
AKRON is 1-0 against the spread versus BALL ST over the last 3 seasons
AKRON is 1-0 straight up against BALL ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BOWLING GREEN (0 - 5) at MIAMI OHIO (2 - 3) - 10/7/2017, 2:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOWLING GREEN is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 48-29 ATS (+16.1 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
BOWLING GREEN is 30-12 ATS (+16.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI OHIO is 1-0 against the spread versus BOWLING GREEN over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI OHIO is 1-0 straight up against BOWLING GREEN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MARSHALL (3 - 1) at CHARLOTTE (0 - 5) - 10/7/2017, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARSHALL is 42-67 ATS (-31.7 Units) in road games since 1992.
MARSHALL is 42-67 ATS (-31.7 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
MARSHALL is 28-47 ATS (-23.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
CHARLOTTE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 1-1 against the spread versus MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons
CHARLOTTE is 1-1 straight up against MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UCF (3 - 0) at CINCINNATI (2 - 3) - 10/7/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-1 against the spread versus UCF over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-1 straight up against UCF over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GEORGIA ST (1 - 2) at COASTAL CAROLINA (1 - 3) - 10/7/2017, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGIA ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGIA ST is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
GEORGIA ST is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.
GEORGIA ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games in October games since 1992.
GEORGIA ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PENN ST (5 - 0) at NORTHWESTERN (2 - 2) - 10/7/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PENN ST is 39-21 ATS (+15.9 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.
PENN ST is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PENN ST is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PENN ST is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
PENN ST is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
PENN ST is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NORTHWESTERN is 1-0 against the spread versus PENN ST over the last 3 seasons
NORTHWESTERN is 1-0 straight up against PENN ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TEMPLE (2 - 3) at E CAROLINA (1 - 4) - 10/7/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEMPLE is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEMPLE is 2-0 against the spread versus E CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
TEMPLE is 2-0 straight up against E CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DUKE (4 - 1) at VIRGINIA (3 - 1) - 10/7/2017, 12:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA is 2-0 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
VIRGINIA is 2-0 straight up against DUKE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (2 - 3) at SYRACUSE (2 - 3) - 10/7/2017, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SYRACUSE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SYRACUSE is 2-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 straight up against SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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VIRGINIA TECH (4 - 1) at BOSTON COLLEGE (2 - 3) - 10/7/2017, 7:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA TECH is 2-0 against the spread versus BOSTON COLLEGE over the last 3 seasons
VIRGINIA TECH is 2-0 straight up against BOSTON COLLEGE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW MEXICO ST (2 - 3) at APPALACHIAN ST (2 - 2) - 10/7/2017, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
APPALACHIAN ST is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
APPALACHIAN ST is 1-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MARYLAND (3 - 1) at OHIO ST (4 - 1) - 10/7/2017, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARYLAND is 28-47 ATS (-23.7 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
OHIO ST is 179-136 ATS (+29.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 179-136 ATS (+29.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 116-86 ATS (+21.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
OHIO ST is 162-122 ATS (+27.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
OHIO ST is 89-64 ATS (+18.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST is 2-0 straight up against MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WAKE FOREST (4 - 1) at CLEMSON (5 - 0) - 10/7/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WAKE FOREST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WAKE FOREST is 2-0 against the spread versus CLEMSON over the last 3 seasons
CLEMSON is 2-0 straight up against WAKE FOREST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (3 - 1) at PURDUE (2 - 2) - 10/7/2017, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
PURDUE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
PURDUE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PURDUE is 1-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 2-0 straight up against PURDUE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MICHIGAN ST (3 - 1) at MICHIGAN (4 - 0) - 10/7/2017, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 53-76 ATS (-30.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN ST is 2-0 against the spread versus MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN is 1-1 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SOUTHERN MISS (2 - 2) at UTSA (3 - 0) - 10/7/2017, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTSA is 1-1 against the spread versus SOUTHERN MISS over the last 3 seasons
UTSA is 1-1 straight up against SOUTHERN MISS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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W KENTUCKY (2 - 2) at UTEP (0 - 5) - 10/7/2017, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

STANFORD (3 - 2) at UTAH (4 - 0) - 10/7/2017, 10:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 36-19 ATS (+15.1 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
UTAH is 63-35 ATS (+24.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
UTAH is 31-14 ATS (+15.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
UTAH is 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
STANFORD is 66-44 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
STANFORD is 56-35 ATS (+17.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA LAFAYETTE (1 - 3) at IDAHO (2 - 2) - 10/7/2017, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IDAHO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 31-54 ATS (-28.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
IDAHO is 31-54 ATS (-28.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
IDAHO is 29-48 ATS (-23.8 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
IDAHO is 31-54 ATS (-28.4 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
IDAHO is 1-0 against the spread versus LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
IDAHO is 1-0 straight up against LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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COLORADO ST (3 - 2) at UTAH ST (3 - 2) - 10/7/2017, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO ST is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 62-39 ATS (+19.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
UTAH ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH ST is 1-1 against the spread versus COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
UTAH ST is 1-1 straight up against COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TULSA (1 - 4) at TULANE (2 - 2) - 10/7/2017, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULSA is 32-51 ATS (-24.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
TULANE is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
TULSA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
TULSA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TULSA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TULSA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
TULSA is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TULSA is 2-0 against the spread versus TULANE over the last 3 seasons
TULSA is 2-0 straight up against TULANE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARMY (3 - 2) at RICE (1 - 4) - 10/7/2017, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARMY is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
ARMY is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) as a road favorite since 1992.
ARMY is 80-108 ATS (-38.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
RICE is 75-48 ATS (+22.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
RICE is 75-48 ATS (+22.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
RICE is 68-45 ATS (+18.5 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
RICE is 75-48 ATS (+22.2 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
RICE is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in home games in October games since 1992.
RICE is 31-14 ATS (+15.6 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARMY is 1-0 against the spread versus RICE over the last 3 seasons
RICE is 1-1 straight up against ARMY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO ST (5 - 0) at UNLV (2 - 2) - 10/7/2017, 10:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
UNLV is 84-120 ATS (-48.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
UNLV is 55-80 ATS (-33.0 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO ST is 2-0 against the spread versus UNLV over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO ST is 2-0 straight up against UNLV over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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AIR FORCE (1 - 3) at NAVY (4 - 0) - 10/7/2017, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 28-56 ATS (-33.6 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
NAVY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.
NAVY is 163-120 ATS (+31.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 163-120 ATS (+31.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) against Mountain West conference opponents since 1992.
NAVY is 148-109 ATS (+28.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NAVY is 104-69 ATS (+28.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NAVY is 54-32 ATS (+18.8 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NAVY is 1-1 against the spread versus AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
NAVY is 1-1 straight up against AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARKANSAS (2 - 2) at S CAROLINA (3 - 2) - 10/7/2017, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARKANSAS is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a road favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (2 - 2) at COLORADO (3 - 2) - 10/7/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 36-65 ATS (-35.5 Units) in October games since 1992.
COLORADO is 41-71 ATS (-37.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 1-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO is 1-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TEXAS TECH (3 - 1) at KANSAS (1 - 3) - 10/7/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS TECH is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS TECH is 69-46 ATS (+18.4 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
KANSAS is 122-157 ATS (-50.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
KANSAS is 122-157 ATS (-50.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
KANSAS is 73-109 ATS (-46.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
KANSAS is 86-115 ATS (-40.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
KANSAS is 114-148 ATS (-48.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
KANSAS is 78-112 ATS (-45.2 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
KANSAS is 51-82 ATS (-39.2 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
KANSAS is 54-78 ATS (-31.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS is 1-1 against the spread versus TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS TECH is 2-0 straight up against KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CALIFORNIA (3 - 2) at WASHINGTON (5 - 0) - 10/7/2017, 10:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 34-54 ATS (-25.4 Units) in home games after playing a conference game since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) in home games in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-1 against the spread versus CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-1 straight up against CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON ST (5 - 0) at OREGON (4 - 1) - 10/7/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON is 43-21 ATS (+19.9 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OREGON is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
OREGON is 58-35 ATS (+19.5 Units) in October games since 1992.
OREGON is 64-40 ATS (+20.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON ST is 2-0 against the spread versus OREGON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON ST is 2-0 straight up against OREGON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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FLA INTERNATIONAL (3 - 1) at MIDDLE TENN ST (2 - 3) - 10/7/2017, 3:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 2-0 against the spread versus MIDDLE TENN ST over the last 3 seasons
MIDDLE TENN ST is 2-0 straight up against FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OREGON ST (1 - 4) at USC (4 - 1) - 10/7/2017, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON ST is 110-81 ATS (+20.9 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
OREGON ST is 58-37 ATS (+17.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
OREGON ST is 65-44 ATS (+16.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA MONROE (2 - 2) at TEXAS ST (1 - 4) - 10/7/2017, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA MONROE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
LA MONROE is 42-22 ATS (+17.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
LA MONROE is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS ST is 2-0 against the spread versus LA MONROE over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS ST is 1-1 straight up against LA MONROE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GEORGIA (5 - 0) at VANDERBILT (3 - 2) - 10/7/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA is 64-41 ATS (+18.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
VANDERBILT is 2-0 against the spread versus GEORGIA over the last 3 seasons
VANDERBILT is 1-1 straight up against GEORGIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

W VIRGINIA (3 - 1) at TCU (4 - 0) - 10/7/2017, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
W VIRGINIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
TCU is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in home games after a bye week since 1992.
TCU is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
TCU is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
TCU is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TCU is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TCU is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
TCU is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TCU is 1-1 against the spread versus W VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
TCU is 1-1 straight up against W VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LOUISIANA TECH (3 - 2) at UAB (2 - 2) - 10/7/2017, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KENT ST (1 - 4) at N ILLINOIS (2 - 2) - 10/7/2017, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N ILLINOIS is 127-97 ATS (+20.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 127-97 ATS (+20.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 96-68 ATS (+21.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 54-32 ATS (+18.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 54-33 ATS (+17.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
N ILLINOIS is 1-0 against the spread versus KENT ST over the last 3 seasons
N ILLINOIS is 1-0 straight up against KENT ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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FLA ATLANTIC (2 - 3) at OLD DOMINION (2 - 2) - 10/7/2017, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLA ATLANTIC is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OLD DOMINION is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
OLD DOMINION is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OLD DOMINION is 2-0 against the spread versus FLA ATLANTIC over the last 3 seasons
OLD DOMINION is 1-1 straight up against FLA ATLANTIC over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LSU (3 - 2) at FLORIDA (3 - 1) - 10/7/2017, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 1-1 against the spread versus LSU over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 1-1 straight up against LSU over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IOWA ST (2 - 2) at OKLAHOMA (4 - 0) - 10/7/2017, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA is 1-1 against the spread versus IOWA ST over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA is 2-0 straight up against IOWA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SMU (4 - 1) at HOUSTON (3 - 1) - 10/7/2017, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SMU is 2-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-1 straight up against SMU over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MISSOURI (1 - 3) at KENTUCKY (4 - 1) - 10/7/2017, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISSOURI is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MISSOURI is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MISSOURI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
MISSOURI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MISSOURI is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
MISSOURI is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KENTUCKY is 2-0 against the spread versus MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
KENTUCKY is 2-0 straight up against MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WISCONSIN (4 - 0) at NEBRASKA (3 - 2) - 10/7/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WISCONSIN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEBRASKA is 2-0 against the spread versus WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
WISCONSIN is 2-0 straight up against NEBRASKA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OLE MISS (2 - 2) at AUBURN (4 - 1) - 10/7/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OLE MISS is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OLE MISS is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
AUBURN is 1-0 against the spread versus OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons
AUBURN is 1-1 straight up against OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS ST (3 - 1) at TEXAS (2 - 2) - 10/7/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS ST is 118-84 ATS (+25.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 147-111 ATS (+24.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 115-83 ATS (+23.7 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 64-38 ATS (+22.2 Units) in October games since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 68-41 ATS (+22.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 1-1 against the spread versus KANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS is 1-1 straight up against KANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ALABAMA (5 - 0) at TEXAS A&M (4 - 1) - 10/7/2017, 7:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
ALABAMA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ALABAMA is 66-45 ATS (+16.5 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
ALABAMA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
ALABAMA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
ALABAMA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
ALABAMA is 55-29 ATS (+23.1 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
ALABAMA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
ALABAMA is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
TEXAS A&M is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS A&M is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS A&M is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS A&M is 41-62 ATS (-27.2 Units) in October games since 1992.
TEXAS A&M is 61-91 ATS (-39.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
TEXAS A&M is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ALABAMA is 2-0 against the spread versus TEXAS A&M over the last 3 seasons
ALABAMA is 2-0 straight up against TEXAS A&M over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FRESNO ST (2 - 2) at SAN JOSE ST (1 - 5) - 10/7/2017, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE ST is 1-1 against the spread versus FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
SAN JOSE ST is 2-0 straight up against FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HAWAII (2 - 3) at NEVADA (0 - 5) - 10/7/2017, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HAWAII is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
HAWAII is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
HAWAII is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
HAWAII is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
HAWAII is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
HAWAII is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.
HAWAII is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEVADA is 1-1 against the spread versus HAWAII over the last 3 seasons
NEVADA is 1-1 straight up against HAWAII over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (3 - 0) at FLORIDA ST (1 - 2) - 10/7/2017, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA ST is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
MIAMI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA ST is 1-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA ST is 2-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Week 6

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Trend Report
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Wednesday, October 4

8:00 PM
ARKANSAS STATE vs. GA SOUTHERN
Arkansas State is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Arkansas State is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Ga Southern is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Ga Southern is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games at home


Thursday, October 5

8:00 PM
LOUISVILLE vs. NORTH CAROLINA STATE
Louisville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing North Carolina State
Louisville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
North Carolina State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
North Carolina State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games


Friday, October 6

7:00 PM
MEMPHIS vs. CONNECTICUT
Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Memphis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Connecticut's last 8 games at home
Connecticut is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games

10:15 PM
BOISE STATE vs. BYU
Boise State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Boise State is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of BYU's last 13 games
BYU is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games


Saturday, October 7

12:00 PM
WAKE FOREST vs. CLEMSON
Wake Forest is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Clemson
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Wake Forest's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Clemson's last 9 games when playing Wake Forest
Clemson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Wake Forest

12:00 PM
EASTERN MICHIGAN vs. TOLEDO
Eastern Michigan is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toledo
Eastern Michigan is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toledo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toledo's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toledo's last 8 games at home

12:00 PM
GEORGIA vs. VANDERBILT
Georgia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Vanderbilt
Georgia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Vanderbilt's last 10 games when playing Georgia
Vanderbilt is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Georgia

12:00 PM
TEMPLE vs. EAST CAROLINA
Temple is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Temple is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games on the road
East Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
East Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

12:00 PM
TEXAS TECH vs. KANSAS
Texas Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas
Texas Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas
Kansas is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Texas Tech
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas's last 6 games at home

12:00 PM
IOWA STATE vs. OKLAHOMA
Iowa State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Iowa State's last 5 games when playing Oklahoma
Oklahoma is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Iowa State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma's last 5 games when playing Iowa State

12:00 PM
MISSISSIPPI vs. AUBURN
Mississippi is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Mississippi is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Auburn is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Mississippi
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Auburn's last 8 games when playing Mississippi

12:00 PM
ILLINOIS vs. IOWA
Illinois is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Iowa
Illinois is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Iowa
Iowa is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Iowa's last 7 games at home

12:00 PM
PENN STATE vs. NORTHWESTERN
Penn State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Northwestern
Penn State is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Northwestern
Northwestern is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Northwestern is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

12:20 PM
DUKE vs. VIRGINIA
Duke is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games when playing Virginia
Duke is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Virginia is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Duke
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Virginia's last 7 games when playing at home against Duke

12:30 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. SYRACUSE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against Syracuse
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Syracuse
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Syracuse's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Syracuse is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh

2:00 PM
CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. OHIO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Central Michigan's last 5 games when playing Ohio
Central Michigan is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Ohio
Ohio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Ohio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

2:30 PM
BOWLING GREEN vs. MIAMI (OHIO)
Bowling Green is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Bowling Green is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami (Ohio)'s last 5 games when playing at home against Bowling Green
Miami (Ohio) is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Bowling Green

3:00 PM
LOUISIANA-MONROE vs. TEXAS STATE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Louisiana-Monroe's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Louisiana-Monroe's last 13 games
Texas State is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Texas State's last 11 games

3:00 PM
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL vs. MIDDLE TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida International's last 5 games when playing Middle Tennessee
Florida International is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Middle Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

3:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. PURDUE
Minnesota is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Purdue
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against Purdue
Purdue is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Purdue's last 5 games when playing Minnesota

3:30 PM
NOTRE DAME vs. NORTH CAROLINA
Notre Dame is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Notre Dame is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
North Carolina is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
North Carolina is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games

3:30 PM
WEST VIRGINIA vs. TCU
West Virginia is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
West Virginia is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
TCU is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
TCU is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

3:30 PM
AIR FORCE vs. NAVY
Air Force is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing Navy
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Air Force's last 6 games when playing on the road against Navy
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Navy's last 7 games
Navy is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

3:30 PM
LSU vs. FLORIDA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LSU's last 9 games when playing on the road against Florida
LSU is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Florida
Florida is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games at home
Florida is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing LSU

3:30 PM
MIAMI vs. FLORIDA STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Florida State
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Florida State
Florida State is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida State's last 6 games

3:30 PM
NEW MEXICO STATE vs. APPALACHIAN STATE
New Mexico State is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games
New Mexico State is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Appalachian State is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Appalachian State is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games

3:30 PM
KENT STATE vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Kent State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Northern Illinois
Kent State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Northern Illinois is 8-15-1 ATS in its last 24 games at home

3:30 PM
WESTERN MICHIGAN vs. BUFFALO
Western Michigan is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Western Michigan is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games
Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Western Michigan

3:30 PM
BALL STATE vs. AKRON
Ball State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Akron
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ball State's last 5 games when playing Akron
Akron is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
Akron is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games

3:30 PM
CHARLESTON SOUTHERN vs. INDIANA
Charleston Southern is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Charleston Southern is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games at home

TBA
HOUSTON vs. SOUTHERN METHODIST
Houston is 18-6-1 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Southern Methodist's last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
Southern Methodist is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston

4:00 PM
OREGON STATE vs. SOUTHERN CAL
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oregon State's last 6 games when playing on the road against Southern Cal
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oregon State's last 6 games when playing Southern Cal
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Southern Cal's last 9 games at home
Southern Cal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:00 PM
ARKANSAS vs. SOUTH CAROLINA
Arkansas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Arkansas is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
South Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arkansas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of South Carolina's last 5 games when playing at home against Arkansas

4:00 PM
TULSA vs. TULANE
Tulsa is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tulane
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tulsa's last 6 games when playing on the road against Tulane
Tulane is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
Tulane is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Tulsa

4:00 PM
MARYLAND vs. OHIO STATE
Maryland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Maryland's last 6 games on the road
Ohio State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Ohio State is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games at home

4:00 PM
LOUISIANA TECH vs. UAB
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Louisiana Tech's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Louisiana Tech's last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of UAB's last 9 games

4:30 PM
COLORADO STATE vs. UTAH STATE
Colorado State is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado State's last 6 games on the road
Utah State is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games
Utah State is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home

5:00 PM
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE vs. IDAHO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Louisiana-Lafayette's last 5 games on the road
Louisiana-Lafayette is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Idaho is 7-13-1 ATS in its last 21 games at home
Idaho is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

6:00 PM
MARSHALL vs. CHARLOTTE
Marshall is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games
Marshall is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Charlotte is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
Charlotte is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home

6:00 PM
FLORIDA ATLANTIC vs. OLD DOMINION
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida Atlantic's last 7 games on the road
Florida Atlantic is 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 games
Old Dominion is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Old Dominion is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games

6:30 PM
ARMY vs. RICE
Army is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Army's last 8 games on the road
Rice is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Rice is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

6:30 PM
GEORGIA STATE vs. COASTAL CAROLINA
Georgia State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Georgia State's last 7 games on the road
Coastal Carolina is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
Coastal Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

7:00 PM
KANSAS STATE vs. TEXAS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas State's last 6 games when playing Texas
Kansas State is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Texas
Texas is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Texas's last 11 games

7:00 PM
SOUTHERN MISS vs. UTSA
Southern Miss is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Southern Miss is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
UTSA is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
UTSA is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

7:00 PM
SOUTHERN METHODIST vs. HOUSTON
Southern Methodist is 2-9-1 SU in its last 12 games ,when playing Houston
Southern Methodist is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 18-2 SU in its last 20 games at home
Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home

7:15 PM
VIRGINIA TECH vs. BOSTON COLLEGE
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Virginia Tech's last 18 games on the road
Virginia Tech is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston College's last 5 games when playing Virginia Tech
Boston College is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Virginia Tech

7:15 PM
ALABAMA vs. TEXAS A&M
Alabama is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas A&M
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Alabama's last 8 games on the road
Texas A&M is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
Texas A&M is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Alabama

7:30 PM
MISSOURI vs. KENTUCKY
Missouri is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Missouri is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kentucky's last 5 games when playing Missouri
Kentucky is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

7:30 PM
FRESNO STATE vs. SAN JOSE STATE
Fresno State is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Jose State
Fresno State is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games when playing San Jose State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose State's last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose State's last 7 games

7:30 PM
MICHIGAN STATE vs. MICHIGAN
Michigan State is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Michigan
Michigan State is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Michigan
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Michigan's last 6 games at home
Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

8:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. COLORADO
Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing Colorado
Colorado is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
Colorado is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

8:00 PM
CENTRAL FLORIDA vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Central Florida's last 11 games
Central Florida is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Cincinnati is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

8:00 PM
WESTERN KENTUCKY vs. TEXAS EL PASO
Western Kentucky is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Western Kentucky is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Texas El Paso's last 15 games at home
Texas El Paso is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home

8:00 PM
WISCONSIN vs. NEBRASKA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Wisconsin's last 6 games when playing Nebraska
Wisconsin is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Nebraska
Nebraska is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Nebraska is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home

8:00 PM
WASHINGTON STATE vs. OREGON
Washington State is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Oregon
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington State's last 6 games when playing Oregon
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oregon's last 5 games at home
Oregon is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

10:15 PM
STANFORD vs. UTAH
Stanford is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Stanford's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Utah's last 18 games at home
Utah is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games at home

10:30 PM
HAWAII vs. NEVADA
Hawaii is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Hawaii is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nevada's last 5 games when playing Hawaii
Nevada is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Hawaii

10:45 PM
CALIFORNIA vs. WASHINGTON
California is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
California is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Washington is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against California
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against California

10:45 PM
SAN DIEGO STATE vs. UNLV
San Diego State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
San Diego State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
UNLV is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Diego State
UNLV is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games when playing San Diego State

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 6


Wednesday’s game
Arkansas State (+8) survived a -5 turnover ratio to upset Georgia Southern 27-26 LY; ASU ran the ball for 343 yards. Red Wolves allowed 539 rushing yards in losing their first two I-A games, at Nebraska/SMU- their only win is over a I-AA team; they’re 12-7 vs spread in last 19 games as a road favorite. Ga Southern is 0-3 with a 22-12 loss to I-AA New Hampshire; Eagles are 2-1 as a home underdog since moving to I-A football. Hard to tell much about them since they lost to Power 5 teams (Auburn/Indiana). Dogs covered first five Sun Belt conference games this year.


Thursday’s game
Louisville is 3-0 vs NC State in ACC play, winning by 12-7-41 points; they won 20-13 (+3.5) in their last visit to Raleigh, in 2015. Cardinals (-19.5) crushed State 54-13 LY, outgaining Wolfpack 553-250; they’re 4-1 this year, winning 47-35 in Chapel Hill in their only road game so far- they beat Purdue 35-28 in Indy. Louisville is 8-5 as a road favorite under Petrino. NC State won its last four games, with a win at Florida State in there; Wolfpack is 3-7 as a home underdog under Doeren. ACC home underdogs are 1-5 vs spread so far this season.


Friday’s games
Memphis-UConn are meeting for first time since 2014; home team won last two series games. Tigers lost 45-10 in last visit here, in ’13. Memphis gave up 350 rushing yards in their first road game LW, a 40-13 loss at UCF- they’re 2-4 vs spread on road under Norvell. Tigers allowed 29+ points in all four games this year, including 31 to a I-AA team. UConn is 0-3 vs I-A teams this year, giving up 38-41-49 points; they’re 5-8 in last 13 games as a home underdog. Huskies lost 41-38 at home to East Carolina, a team that lost all its other games, allowing 58.8 ppg.


Home teams won last five Boise State-BYU games (underdogs 3-2 vs spread); Boise lost its last two visits to Provo, 35-24/37-20. BYU is 0-4 vs I-A teams this year; they beat Portland State in their opener, then were outscored 126-43 in last four games. Over last decade, Cougars are 3-4-1 as a home underdog, 0-2 this year- they’re 0-4 vs spread this season. Boise lost its only road game 47-44 at Washington State, blowing a 3 TD lead in 4th quarter- they got smoked 42-23 at home by Virginia LW. Since 2008, Broncos are 33-15 vs spread as a road favorite.


Saturday’s top 13 games
Penn State escaped Iowa with a 21-19 win in their only road game two weeks ago, but they did outgain Hawkeyes 579-273 that day. Lions are 3-5 as a road favorite under Franklin. Favorites covered six of last seven Penn State-Northwestern games; Wildcats won last two meetings, 29-6/23-21. Lions are 5-2 in last seven visits to Evanston (dogs 4-3 vs spread). Northwestern lost 41-17 at Duke, 33-24 at Wisconsin; they beat couple of stiffs at home; Wildcats are 5-9 vs spread in last nine games as a home underdog. Big 14 home dogs are 1-4 vs spread this year.


Clemson won its last eight games with Wake Forest but Deacons covered last three. Wake lost its last 8 visits to Death Valley but is 4-2-1 vs spread in last seven, Wake gained less than 300 yards in each of last three series games, but they’re better this year. Deacons outgained Florida St by 97 yards LW, but lost 26-19 at the end; Wake is 7-3 vs spread in last ten games as a road underdog. Clemson is 5-0, with one win by less than 14 points; they’re 15-12-1 in last 28 games as a home favorite, 2-1 this year. Under is 15-9 in Tigers’ last 24 home games.


Minnesota is 3-1, losing 31-24 at home to Maryland and their 3rd-string QB last week. Terps ran ball for 262 yards against them. Gophers hammered Oregon State 48-14 in their only road game this year- last 4+ years, they’re 9-5-1 vs spread as a road underdog. Purdue is 2-2; they ran ball for 253/205 yards in easy wins over Ohio/Missouri, they were held to 51-30 yards in losses to Louisville/Michigan. Boilermakers covered their last four tries as a home favorite. Big 14 home underdogs are 1-4 against the spread this season.


Michigan is 4-0, allowing 13.5 ppg; no one has gained more than 232 yards against them so far this year. Wolverines are 8-8 as home favorites under Harbaugh, 0-2 this year. Michigan is 2-7 in last nine games with Michigan State; Spartans covered their last four visits to Ann Arbor. This is first road game for State squad that is 3-1, scoring 18-17 points in last two games. State is 7-2 vs spread in last nine games as a road underdog- they held Iowa to 231 yards in 17-10 win last week. Big 14 home teams are 3-7 vs spread, 2-3 if favored.


Utah won both its Pac-12 games with Stanford 27-21/20-17; teams haven’t met since 2014, when Utes won despite gaining only 247 yards. Utah had last week off; they haven’t beaten anyone good yet, surviving road trips to BYU (19-13), Arizona (30-24). Stanford scored 92 points in winning its last two games, after losing road games at USC (42-24), San Diego State (20-17); Cardinal was held under 200 rushing yards in both their losses- they averaged 340 YR in their 3 wins. Pac-12 home teams are 7-5 vs spread in league games, 3-3 when getting points.


Navy is 4-0, running ball for 990 yards in last two games; they threw total of 7 passes in last two games. Midshipmen are 13-8 vs spread in last 21 games as a home favorite; they’re 3-4 in last seven games with Air Force, but Flyboys are 1-6 in last seven visits to Annapolis, 1-7-1 vs spread in last nine. Air Force lost its last three games, giving up 84 points in losing first two MW games; Falcons covered five of last six games as a road underdog. Air Force gave up 363 yards to New Mexico’s run-based attack LW, a red flag if they’re playing Navy seven days later.


South Carolina scored 13-17-17 points in its last three games, losing twice; their last four games stayed under total. Gamecocks are 5-11 vs spread in last 16 games as a home favorite; they won last two games with Arkansas by 52-7/38-20 scores, but last meeting was in 2013. Home side won/covered five of last seven series games. This is first true road game for Arkansas; they lost 50-43 to Texas A&M in Arlington. Razorbacks covered six of last eight true road games; they beat couple of stiff teams this year, but lost to TCU (28-7) and Aggies, two good teams.


First road game for 5-0 Washington State squad that rallied from 21 down to beat Boise State in OT, then held USC off 30-27 in emotional game last Friday. Coogs beat Oregon 51-33/45-38 last two years; they covered last seven series games (six as a double digit dog), last three trips to Autzen Stadium. State is 14-4 vs spread in last 18 games as a road underdog. Oregon scored 42-45 points in home wins over Nebraska/Cal (1-1 vs spread); Ducks are 4-9 vs spread in last 13 tries as a home favorite. Pac-12 home favorites are 4-2 vs spread this season.


West Virginia outscored lowly Kansas 56-34 LW, but Jayhawks ran ball for 367 yards, a huge red flag since they’re visiting a quality opponent this week. West Va is 2-1 vs I-A teams but allowed 28.3 ppg in the three games; they’re 12-19 vs spread as a home favorite under Holgorsen. TCU is 4-0, scoring 100 points in its last two games, including a SU win LW as a 13-point dog at Okla State- they ran ball for 492 yards in those games. Horned Frogs are 0-7 vs spread in last seven games as home favorite.


Florida QB Del Rio (collarbone) is out; red shirt freshman QB Franks (40-63/557) takes over as starting QB. Gators won first three SEC games, allowing 23.7 ppg since 33-17 neutral field loss to Michigan in their opener. Florida is 5-6 vs spread as a home favorite under McElwain. LSU lost as a 20-point home favorite to Troy State LW, giving up 206 YR; they lost 37-7 at Miss State in their only road game, giving up 285 rushing yards. Last 3+ years, Tigers are 0-3-1 vs spread as a road underdog. QB Etling was banged up last week, but returned late in the game.


Wisconsin is 4-0 but Northwestern is best team they’ve played; Badgers hammered BYU 40-6 in their only road game. Badgers are 9-1 vs spread on road under Chryst, 6-1 when favored. Under is 10-4 in their last 14 road games. Nebraska’s coach is on hot seat after the AD got fired; Huskers won last two games over stiffs after losing to Oregon/Northern Illinois. Since 2008, Nebraska is 2-3 as a home underdog, 1-1 under Riley. Badgers won five of last six games with Nebraska, beating Cornhuskers 23-21/23-17 in last two meetings.


Since 2007, Kansas State is 24-9 vs spread when getting points on the road; they’re 3-1 SU this year but lost only road game 14-7 at Vanderbilt- Wildcats threw for just 76 yards in that game, 119 yards in LW’s 33-20 win over Baylor. Home side won K-State’s last five games with Texas, losing 23-9/31-21 in last two visits here, which are Longhorns’ only two wins in last nine series games. Longhorns are 2-2, losing to Maryland/USC; they struggled to beat Iowa State 17-7 LW, running for only 141 yards. Texas is 9-7-1 vs spread in last 17 games as a home favorite.


Florida State is playing a true freshman QB who hasn’t been in weight room long enough to take a season’s pounding— he does have ability, but had only 121 passing yards LW in 26-19 win at Wake Forest 26-19 LW: they were outgained by 97 yards, scored GW TD with 0:53 left. Miami is 3-0 after pounding Duke 31-6 LW; they won previous game 52-30 over Toledo. Hurricanes lost their last seven games vs Florida State- underdogs covered five of those seven games. Miami lost last three visits to Doak Campbell Stadium, by 4-27-5 points.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Dunkel


Week 6


Wednesday, October 4

Arkansas St @ Georgia Southern


Game 301-302
October 4, 2017 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Arkansas St
77.198
Georgia Southern
66.128
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arkansas St
by 11
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arkansas St
by 7
55
Dunkel Pick:
Arkansas St
(-7); Over

 

[CNOTES]

College football's biggest betting mismatches: Week 6
Monty Andrews


Two of the top five scoring offenses in the nation square off this weekend as the TCU Horned Frogs welcome the West Virginia Mountaineers to Amon G. Carter Stadium.


Miami at Florida State (+3, 48)


Miami's vaunted run defense vs. FSU's struggles on the ground


The Miami Hurricanes made a major statement this past weekend, shutting down host Duke en route to a 31-6 win over the Blue Devils. Now, the 13th-ranked Hurricanes will look to end a seven-game losing skid to rival Florida State as they visit the Seminoles on Saturday afternoon. Florida State has had a dreadful start to the season - thanks in no small part to the havoc caused by Hurricane Irma - and won't dig out of its hole if it can't find a way to solve Miami's impressive run defense.


Duke came into last week's encounter armed with one of the most potent ground attacks in the nation - and while it did manage to rack up 183 rushing yards against Miami, it needed a whopping 46 carries to do so. More importantly, Miami kept the Blue Devils out of the end zone; Duke entered the game with 11 rushing scores in its first four games. The Hurricanes have held opponents to a minuscule 3.5 YPC average through three games and have permitted just one rushing touchdowns so far.


That doesn't bode well for Florida State, which had high hopes coming into 2017 but has yet to get its running game untracked. The Seminoles average a paltry 3.1 YPC through three games, with just one rushing touchdown on its ledger. Florida State ran the ball 43 times in Saturday's victory over Wake Forest, but generated just 149 yards on the ground (3.5 YPC); a similar effort against the formidable Hurricanes this weekend could drop the Seminoles to 1-3 on the season.


LSU at Florida (-3, 46.5)


LSU's third-down troubles vs. Florida's drive-killing prowess


Things are B-A-D at LSU after the Tigers saw their 49-game home winning streak against non-conference opponents halted in a shocking 24-21 loss to Troy - a game in which LSU was a 20-point fave. Things don't get any easier this coming weekend as the Tigers tangle with a Gators team that improved to 3-0 in SEC play with a two-touchdown triumph over Vanderbilt. LSU will need to be much better than it was last week - particularly when it comes to third-down conversions.


The Tigers can point to several factors that contributed to their stunning loss - and failure to extend drives is at the top of the list. LSU went an unfathomable 0-for-9 on third-down conversions, and needed to connect on a pair of fourth downs just to score a fourth-quarter touchdown that made things interesting. The Tigers have gone a combined 3-for-22 on third-down conversions in their two losses this season, and rank a dismal 93rd in overall third-down success rate (35.7 percent) on the season.


Florida has done a lot of things right in conference play so far this season, and forcing teams to punt has been among its most impressive feats. Tennessee, Kentucky and Vanderbilt have gone a combined 9-for-39 on third downs in the Gators' three SEC victories, pushing Florida to 14th in the nation in overall third-down conversion rate allowed (28.1 percent). With these teams at the opposite end of the third-down spectrum, don't be surprised to see the Gators extend their success through the weekend.


West Virginia at TCU (-13.5, 71)


WV's underwhelming red-zone defense vs. TCU's nose for the end zone


If you like touchdowns and haven't already set your PVR for this game, you're doing it wrong. Two of the top five scoring offenses in the nation square off this weekend as the TCU Horned Frogs welcome the West Virginia Mountaineers to Amon G. Carter Stadium. These teams combine for an obscene 96.6 points per game - and while they might not get there on Saturday, you can bet on TCU's potent red-zone offense to give the Horned Frogs a decided scoring edge in this one.


West Virginia's 48.8 points per game rank second in the nation - but the Mountaineers haven't faced an offense like this. And given how they have performed against opposing teams in the red zone so far this season, they should be concerned. West Virginia has allowed foes to score on 12 of 14 trips inside its 20-yard line - an 85.7-percent success rate that ranks 76th nationally. Eight of those scores have been touchdowns - five on the ground and three through the air.


As you might expect, TCU - which averages an equally impressive 47.8 points per contest - has excelled in the red zone this season. The Horned Frogs have 14 touchdowns - eight rushing, six receiving - and three field goals in 19 visits inside the opponents' 20, good for an 89.5-percent success rate that ranks 37th in Division I. If this game becomes a battle of red-zone defenses, bank on TCU, which ranks inside the top 25 in red-zone defense at 72.7 percent.


Washington State at Oregon (-2, 64)


WSU's terrific discipline vs. Oregon's penalty parade


Washington State is knocking on the door of the top 10 following an impressive 30-27 win over USC last weekend. In addition to holding the Trojans to 2-of-11 on third down and forcing a pair of turnovers, the Cougars prevailed both in penalties (six to USC's nine) and penalty yards (59 to the Trojans' 80). Look for a similar - or larger - advantage this weekend, as Washington State looks to remain unbeaten against an Oregon side that can light up the scoreboard but has littered the field in yellow.


The Cougars have shown great discipline to date, ranking fourth in the Pac-12 in total penalties (27), penalty yards (251) and average yards per game (50.2). They're at a modest advantage in that regard, having drawn an average of 54 opponent penalty yards through five games. Keeping the flags off the field has contributed, at least in part, to Washington State's 33:36 average time of possession, which leads the Pac-12 and ranks 13th nationally.


The Ducks are an imposing unit, leading the nation in scoring (49.6) while ranking inside the top 15 in rushing yards per game (260.8). But when it comes to discipline, Oregon is miles behind the rest of the pack. The Ducks have racked up the most penalties (52) and penalty yards (467) in Division I, while ranking second from the bottom in penalty yards per game (93.4). Combined with the fact that Oregon has drawn an average of just 48.1 penalty yards per game, and it's a wonder the Ducks are 4-1.

 

[CNOTES]

CFB Aug/Sept Best Bets: ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )
BEST BETS & OPINIONS

Aug/SeptTotals:.......154 - 145 - 9.....51.50%....-27.50

Best Bets:*****
Best Bets :........................ATS............TOTALS.... .............O/U................TOTALS

Aug/Sept Totals:...........41 -33 - 2...........+30.50...............13 - 18.............- 25.50

********************************

CFB Ocotber's Best Bets & Opinions ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )


[h=3][/h]

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS ARST at GASO 08:00 PM GASO O 55.0 +8.5***** *****

 

[CNOTES]

Arkansas Stats spoils Georgia Southern's home opener 43-25
October 4, 2017


STATESBORO, Ga. (AP) Justice Hansen threw for 316 yards and four touchdowns, and Arkansas State overcame his four interceptions to beat Georgia Southern 43-25 in the conference opener for both teams Wednesday night.


Arkansas State (2-2), back-to-back Sun Belt champions, trailed 17-15 with a minute left in the first half but scored 21 straight points for a 36-17 lead on Warren Wand's second touchdown run.


Chris Murray was left wide open along the left side and raced for a 57-yard touchdown to give Arkansas State a 22-17 lead with 20 seconds left before halftime. Hansen and Murray connected earlier in the second quarter for a 56-yard score for a 9-3 lead.


Murray had three catches for 120 yards in the first half, and finished with 188 yards and two touchdowns. Wand carried it 11 times for 61 yards and two scores.


Shai Werts' long throw to Obe Fortune for a 50-yard touchdown and Werts' sneak on a 2-point conversion pulled Georgia Southern within 36-23 with 11:08 left in the fourth. But the Eagles' ensuing onside kick was recovered by the Red Wolves.


Werts threw for 160 yards, and had one touchdown and two interceptions for the Eagles (0-4). He added 111 yards on the ground.


It was Georgia Southern's first home game at Paulson Stadium this season after the Eagles and New Hampshire agreed to move their game on Sept. 9 to Birmingham's Legion Field due to Hurricane Irma.




*****************************


CFB Aug/Sept Best Bets: ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )
BEST BETS & OPINIONS


Aug/SeptTotals:.......154 - 145 - 9.....51.50%....-27.50


Best Bets:*****
Best Bets :........................ATS............TOTALS.... .............O/U................TOTALS


Aug/Sept Totals:...........41 -33 - 2...........+30.50...............13 - 18.............- 25.50


*******************


October's Best Bets & Opinions Record:


10/04/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50




Best Bets:*****
Best Bets :........................ATS............TOTALS.... .............O/U................TOTALS




10/04/2017.....................1 - 0.............+ 5.00.................0 - 1 ................- 5.50

 

[CNOTES]

Miami-FSU may again face weather issues
October 4, 2017


TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) The matchup between No. 13 Miami and Florida State could once again be impacted by inclement weather.


Officials from both schools and the Atlantic Coast Conference are monitoring Tropical Depression 16, which is expected to turn into Tropical Storm or Hurricane Nate by the weekend.


The game Saturday at Doak Campbell Stadium was originally scheduled for Sept. 16 but was postponed due to Hurricane Irma.


Both teams were originally scheduled to be off this week. The teams also had games canceled on Sept. 9 that will not be made up. Florida State was supposed to host Louisiana Monroe while Miami was at Arkansas State.


This depression is currently in the southwest Caribbean is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend with the potential to be a hurricane impacting the Florida Panhandle by late Sunday.




*******************************


Gators WR Cleveland won't play vs. LSU
October 4, 2017


GAINESVILLE, Fla. (AP) No. 21 Florida will be without leading receiver Tyrie Cleveland against LSU on Saturday.


Coach Jim McElwain ruled Cleveland out following practice Wednesday, saying the sophomore ''was in there working his tail off trying to play.''


Cleveland sustained a high-ankle sprain to his right foot against Vanderbilt last week. He leads the team in every receiving category, recording 15 catches, 326 yards and two touchdowns. In the last three games, Cleveland had receptions of 45, 49, 50 and 63 yards. Those are the team's only receptions of more than 40 yards this season.


Cleveland ranks third in the Southeastern Conference in receiving yards (81.5) a game. His most notable play was being on the receiving end of a game-winning, 63-yard touchdown pass from Feleipe Franks on the final play against Tennessee last month.




*************************************


USC loses G Talamaivao to torn pec
October 4, 2017


LOS ANGELES (AP) Southern California right guard Viane Talamaivao will miss the rest of the season because of a torn pectoral muscle.


Coach Clay Helton said Wednesday that Talamaivao needs surgery to repair the injury, which happened during the No. 14 Trojans' 30-27 loss at No. 11 Washington State. The injury also effectively ends the college career of Talamaivao, with Helton saying the senior will likely not be able to apply for a medical redshirt and another season of eligibility.


Talamaivao entered the season as USC's most experienced lineman and made 37 career starts in four seasons.


''Viane has been a rock to us for four years,'' Helton said.


Freshman Andrew Vorhees is expected to replace Talamaivao in the starting lineup against Oregon State on Saturday.


USC has been hurt by injuries in recent weeks, but Talamaivao is the first starter officially ruled out for the year.




********************************




Irish get encouraging news on QB Wimbush
October 4, 2017


SOUTH BEND, Ind. (AP) No. 21 Notre Dame got encouraging news about injured quarterback Brandon Wimbush, who was expected to run in practice Wednesday after suffering a Grade 1 strain of his right foot.


Wimbush, whose foot was placed in a walking boot hours after he led Notre Dame to a 52-17 victory over Miami (Ohio) last Saturday, did some light work Tuesday. Sophomore Ian Book got most of the snaps with the No. 1 unit in preparation for Saturday's game at North Carolina (1-4).


''He (Wimbush) was fully engaged in all of our game plan, meetings,'' coach Brian Kelly said. ''He was out on the field. He did some light throwing, some core exercises. We had him bike. And then he was part of the signaling of all the plays. He's mentally ready to go.''


Kelly said that Wimbush wore the walking boot and used crutches in going to class this week.


''We let him use it today (Wednesday) to go to class because he's walking around campus and we don't want any stress on the foot,'' he said. ''He doesn't need it because of the pain or anything like that. He felt awkward in the boot. The boot should be off today.''


Book has seen limited action this season mostly in mop-up roles for the Irish, who have won three straight after a 20-19 loss to Georgia. Kelly said he is confident in Book taking over if Wimbush has any setbacks.


''It's not a one-man show here,'' Kelly said. ''One player is not going to change how we go about and do our work. Brandon had a good day yesterday. We expect him to continue to progress. If he can't, Ian Book will be ready to play and run our offense, and we've got 10 other players around him that will be ready to help him.''

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday’s six-pack


— Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota is day-to-day with a hamstring injury.


— Minnesota’s Taj Gibson will be the first NBA player EVER to wear uniform #67.


— UTEP football coach Sean Kugler resigned this week, replaced by former Washington State coach Mike Price, who was also UTEP’s coach from 2004-12.


— Atlanta’s Ersan Ilyasova led the NBA in charges drawn last year, with 36.


— Texas Rangers fired their bullpen coach; obviously this season was all his fault.


— Arizona 11, Colorado 8— Diamondbacks move on to face the Dodgers in next round.


*****************************


Thursday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……..


13) With Giants playing the Chargers this weekend, Eli Manning faces the team that drafted him; Manning then forced a trade to the Giants by saying he didn’t want to play in San Diego.


Ben Roethlisberger was also drafted in the first round that year: career playoff records of the three QB’s who are linked together in history:


Roethlisberger (last of the 3 taken) 13-7, Manning 8-4, Rivers 4-5.


Some NFL notes looking at how teams do on the first drive of each half:
12) Jaguars/Packers are the only NFL teams who scored on the first drive of all their games; three FG’s and a TD for both teams.


11) Bills-Bears-Colts are the three teams who haven’t scored on the first drive of a half; Falcons-Broncos-Giants are the three teams that haven’t allowed a point on the first drive of a half.


10) On the first drive of their 8 halves this season, Detroit Lions have run 41 plays for 109 yards, 3 points; they’ve been outgained 298-109, outscored 17-3 by their opponents on 1st drives.


9) NFL defines “explosive plays” as running plays longer than 11 yards, passing plays longer than 15 yards. Teams with the most this year: Patriots 48, Rams 43, Cardinals 39, Falcons 38


Teams with fewest explosive plays: Dolphins 13 (in 3 games), Ravens 17, Bengals 23.


8) From Gil Brandt: Since 1990, 28 of 196 NFL teams that started season 1-3 made the playoffs, with 2001 Patriots the only one of those 28 teams to win the Super Bowl.


Elsewhere…….
7) Toronto declined Jose Bautista’s option; he will be 37 in a couple weeks- he hit .203 this year. Will be interesting to see what kind of a contract he gets for next year.


6) According to covers.com, under has hit 55.1% of October NHL games the last four years.


5) 8 guys from last year’s NBA All-Star Game changed teams in the off-season; that seems like a lot.


4) Nevada Wolf Pack has 11 transfers on its roster; five are sitting out this season, six will be playing. Eric Musselman hasn’t recruited many freshmen in his tenure at Reno.


3) Former Purdue hooper Robbie Hummel retired from playing, will be an analyst for the Big Ten Network and ESPN.


2) Willie Reed signed a 3-year, $15M contract with the Miami Heat that was voided because he was represented by an agent who wasn’t certified by the NBA. Now he is on the Clippers, with a one-year deal for the minimum salary. Lot of leeches in the world, when there is money involved.


1) If you had the Chiefs as the last unbeaten team in the NFL, you’re a hell of a lot smarter than I am.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Dunkel


Week 6


Thursday, October 5

Louisville @ NC State


Game 305-306
October 5, 2017 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Louisville
100.780
NC State
93.308
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Louisville
by 7 1/2
71
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Louisville
by 3 1/2
65 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Louisville
(-3 1/2); Over


Alcorn State @ Alabama St


Game 501-502
October 5, 2017 @ 7:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Alcorn State
53.463
Alabama St
40.742
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Alcorn State
by 12 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Alcorn State
by 10
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Alcorn State
(-10 1/2); Under




Friday, October 6

Memphis @ Connecticut


Game 307-308
October 6, 2017 @ 7:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
79.743
Connecticut
70.790
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Memphis
by 9
69
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Memphis
by 14
72
Dunkel Pick:
Connecticut
(+14); Under


Boise State @ Brigham Young


Game 309-310
October 6, 2017 @ 10:15 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Boise State
77.806
Brigham Young
82.838
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Brigham Young
by 5
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boise State
by 9
44
Dunkel Pick:
Brigham Young
(+9); Under


Morgan St @ South Carolina St


Game 503-504
October 6, 2017 @ 7:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Morgan St
33.361
South Carolina St
54.836
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
South Carolina St
by 21 1/2
32
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
South Carolina St
by 16 1/2
35
Dunkel Pick:
South Carolina St
(-16 1/2); Under