Friday's Tip Sheet
September 28, 2017
**Miami at Duke**
-- As of Thursday, most betting shops had Miami (2-0 straight up, 1-1 against the spread) listed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 56. The Blue Devils were +210 on the money line (risk $100 to win $210).
-- Mark Richt’s team had 21 days off between its season-opening 41-3 win over Bethune-Cookman and last week’s date with Toledo in South Florida. UM’s rust was clearly evident when it was trailing 16-10 more than midway through the third quarter. At that time, bettors on the Rockets +13.5 and ‘under’ 60 combined points were loving life. That changed, however, when Miami RB Travis Homer dashed into the end zone on a 12-yard scamper to give the Hurricanes the lead for keeps with 5:36 left in the third quarter. Then with 20 ticks remaining in the third, quarterback Malik Rosier found Dayall Harris for a 10-yard scoring strike and a 24-16 advantage. After forcing a turnover, Braxton Berrios scored on a 19-yard TD run on the first play of the fourth quarter. Then when Rosier hit Christopher Herndon for a two-yard TD pass with 11:23 left, the ‘Canes took a 38-16 lead. Toledo answered with a six-yard TD pass from Logan Woodside to Diontae Johnson, but the two-point conversion failed. Next, the Rockets surged back ahead of the number when Wooside hit Johnson again for an eight-yard scoring strike. Woodside found Johnson yet again on a pass for the two-point conversion to trim the deficit to 38-30 with 7:37 remaining. But UM would get a Rosier 23-yard TD run and a 15-yard TD dash from Homer to pull away and win by a 52-30 count.
-- Mark Walton stole the show for UM against Toledo, rushing for 204 yards and one TD on merely 11 carries. Rosier completed 27-of-36 passes for 333 yards and three TDs compared to just one interception. Berrios had five receptions for 105 yards and one TD, while Herndon finished with eight catches for 65 yards and one TD.
-- Duke (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) has been a serious money maker in wins vs. NC Central (60-7), vs. Northwestern (41-17), vs. Baylor (34-20) and at North Carolina (27-17). The Blue Devils rallied from a 17-13 fourth-quarter deficit at UNC last week to win as 1.5-point road underdogs. Shaun Wilson’s one-yard TD run with 6:09 left put Duke ahead 20-17, and Byron Fields scored on a 61-yard pick-six with 4:01 remaining to put the game on ice. Sophomore QB Daniel Jones threw for 202 yards and one TD without being picked off. Brittain Brown, a redshirt freshman RB, rushed 10 times for 90 yards. T.J. Rahming had six receptions for 73 yards.
-- For the season, Jones has completed 61.9 percent of his passes for 904 yards with a 5/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has also rushed for 141 yards and three TDs. Wilson has run for a team-high 349 yards and five TDs while averaging 5.9 yards per carry. Brown has produced 325 rushing yards and two TDs with a 6.3 YPC average. Rahming is Jones’s favorite target, bringing down 24 receptions for 248 yards.
-- Duke owns a 15-11 spread record in 26 games as a home underdog during David Cutcliffe’s 10-year tenure.
-- Miami has won 12 of 14 head-to-head meetings in this rivalry and is 5-1 ATS in the last six encounters. The ‘Canes won a 40-21 decision as 16-point home favorites last year. Walton ran for a team-best 60 yards on 13 attempts, in addition to making four catches for 46 yards and one TD. Jones threw for 316 yards and three TDs without an interception. The last time these schools met at Wallace Wade Stadium two years ago, Miami won 30-27 in controversial fashion. Duke took a 27-24 lead with six seconds left but on the ensuing kickoff, UM scored after making eight laterals in one of the wildest finishes in college football history. However, replays showed that before one of UM’s players got rid of the ball on a lateral, his knee was clearly down. Nevertheless, the replay booth didn’t act and Miami left town in victorious fashion.
-- Who was equally as pissed off as Cutcliffe and Duke fans about that controversial result in 2015? Gamblers who were on ‘under’ 51.5 points! With the score at 27-24, which should’ve been the final, bets on the ‘under’ could’ve/should’ve/would’ve been a winner.
-- The ‘over’ is 2-1 in Duke’s home games this year, 2-2 overall. Totals have been a wash for the ‘Canes (1-1), who are hitting the road for the first time in 2017.
-- ESPN will provide television coverage from Durham at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
**Southern California at Washington State**
-- Most books had Southern Cal (4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS) installed as a 10-point favorite for this matchup in the Games of the Year during the summer. As of Thursday afternoon, however, most spots had USC listed as a 3.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 65. The Cougars were available on the money line for a +155 return.
-- When looking at this game from a situational standpoint, there are a lot of factors favoring Mike Leach’s club. First of all, Washington State (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) hasn’t had to travel yet this year, playing its fifth consecutive home game here. Secondly, it’s at home on a short week of preparation. This is always advantageous to the home team in that at least it doesn’t have to travel. Finally, Southern Cal is playing a second straight contest on the road.
-- Washington State has collected wins over Montana State (31-0), Boise State (47-44 in triple overtime), Oregon State (52-23) and Nevada (45-7). Leach’s squad scored the first 45 points against the Wolf Pack last week, blanking the team from Reno until it scored a garbage touchdown with only 1:56 remaining. Luke Falk was nothing short of sensational, completing 36-of-47 passes for 478 yards and five TDs without an interception. Jamal Morrow rushed for a team-best 73 yards on 11 carries, in addition to catching four balls for 40 receiving yards and one TD. Junior WR Taveres Martin had four receptions for 114 yards and two TDs, while Renard Bell hauled in four catches for 113 yards. The Cougars’ defense limited Nevada to merely 151 yards of total offense and a 1.9 yards-per-carry average on 24 rushing attempts. Sophomore safety Jalen Thompson snagged a pair of interceptions.
-- Falk has completed 76.9 percent of his passes for 1,378 yards with a 14/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. For his career, Falk has an amazing 103/27 TD-INT ratio. Martin has 26 receptions for a team-high 390 receiving yards and six TDs, while James Williams has 37 catches for 266 yards and three TDs. Seven Wazzu players have 12 catches or more through four games.
-- Morrow has rushed for a team-best 193 yards and one TD, averaging 6.9 YPC. He also has 13 receptions for 86 yards and three TDs. Williams has run for 148 yards and one TD, averaging 4.0 YPC.
-- Washington State lost last year’s leading tackler and defensive leader Peyton Pelluer to a season-ending foot injury two weeks ago. The senior LB recorded 93 tackles, one sack, 6.5 tackles for loss, two passes broken up and one QB hurry in 2016. Before going down in Week 3, Pelluer had produced 21 tackles, 0.5 TFL’s, one PBU, one QB hurry and an interception he returned 36 yards for a TD. The only other player listed as injured for WSU is OG Robert Valencia, who is ‘questionable’ with an undisclosed injury.
-- Washington State has gone 5-7 ATS in 12 games as a home underdog since Leach took over in 2012.
-- USC has posted wins vs. Western Michigan (49-31), vs. Stanford (42-24), vs. Texas (27-24 in double OT) and at California (30-20). The Trojans’ only spread cover came against the Cardinal as 4.5-point home favorites. The win over Western Michigan was an extremely misleading score, as the game was knotted at 31-31 midway through the fourth quarter.
-- Clay Helton’s team failed to cover the number in Berkeley last week as a 16.5-point road ‘chalk.’ The game was tied going into the fourth quarter before USC ripped off 17 consecutive points in a stretch of three minutes and nine seconds. With the Trojans slightly ahead of the number (if you took them at 16.5; the line was 17 most of the week), Cal’s Jordan Veasy caught an eight-yard TD pass from QB Ross Bowers with 1:53 remaining to give the Golden Bears the spread cover. QB Sam Darnold connected on 26-of-38 throws for 223 yards and two TDs compared to one interception. With star RB Ronald Jones sidelined with a thigh injury, true freshman and five-star recruit Stephen Carr rushed for 82 yards and one TD on 20 carries. Deontay Burnett had seven receptions for 76 yards and one TD. Sophomore CB Jack Jones had two of four interceptions for the Trojans on Bowers.
-- The final score is all that matters as it pertains to last week’s trip to Berkeley, but we’d be remiss to not mention Cal’s 416-356 advantage in total offense. The Golden Bears committed six turnovers compared to two for USC to give the Trojans a +4 advantage in the turnover department.
-- After sitting out last week at Cal, junior RB Ronald Jones has been upgraded to ‘probable’ this week. Jones, who rushed for 1,082 yards and 12 TDs with a 6.1 YPC average last year, rushed for 322 yards and five TDs in USC’s first three games. He had a 159-yard rushing effort in the opener vs. Western Michigan, including a 37-yard TD scamper with 6:57 remaining to put his team in front for good. Carr has run for 298 yards and three TDs with a 6.3 YPC average. Jones is averaging 5.5 YPC.
-- Darnold has completed 67.1 percent of his throws for 1,225 yards, but he’s been intercepted seven times compared to nine TD passes. Burnett has a team-high 33 receptions for 462 yards and five TDs. Burnett is dealing with a shoulder injury, but he’s listed as ‘probable.’ Senior WR Steven Mitchell missed the win at Cal due to a groin injury and is ‘out’ again at WSU. Mitchell had 14 catches for 223 yards and two TDs in the first two games. Carr has 13 catches for 130 yards, while Jones has three receptions for 85 yards and one TD.
-- In addition to Mitchell, five other USC players are out with injuries. The most important absence is that of junior DE Porter Gustin, who will miss an indefinite period of time due to a biceps injury. Gustin had 68 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 7.5 TFL’s, four PBU and one QB hurry last year. Six other USC players are listed as ‘questionable,’ but all of them are reserves.
-- Both teams have seen its totals go 2-2 overall for a wash. The ‘under’ has cashed in back-to-back outings for the Trojans, including their only prior road assignment at Cal.
-- These schools haven’t met since 2014 when USC captured a 44-17 victory as a 7.5-point road favorite. Falk, a true freshman at the time, completed 38-of-57 passes for 346 yards and two TDs with one interception. Morrow had six catches for 26 yards in the losing effort. The Trojans have won nine of the last 10 head-to-head meetings dating back to 2003.
-- Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-- Friday’s slate includes four total games. One of the others is Nebraska at Illinois on Fox Sports 1 at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. As of late Thursday afternoon, most spots had the Cornhuskers favored by six points with a total of 46.5. The Illini were +195 to win outright (risk $100 to win $195).
-- Nebraska sophomore RB Tre Bryant will miss his second straight game with a knee injury. Brown rushed for 299 yards and two TDs on 51 carries in the team’s first three outings. Starting senior LB Marcus Newby is also out with a hamstring issue, as is starting senior safety Joshua Kalu.
-- Illinois is 2-4 ATS in six games as a home underdog during Lovie Smith’s two-year tenure. One of those covers came in a Week 2 win over Western Ky. by a 20-7 score as a 6.5-point home ‘dog. Meanwhile, Nebraska is 3-2 ATS in five games as a road favorite under Mike Riley.
-- Illinois has had two weeks to prepare for Nebraska after losing 47-23 at USF two Fridays ago. On the flip side, the Cornhuskers are playing their fifth game in five weeks and are on the road on a short week.
-- BYU and Utah State will collide Friday in Logan at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on the CBS Sports Network. As of Thursday, most books had the Cougars favored by 1.5 with a total of 48.5 points. BYU is probably the nation’s biggest disappointment to date, going 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. Kalani Sitake’s team picked up its lone win at home vs. Portland State, 20-6. The Cougars were routed at home by Wisconsin and against LSU in New Orleans. They have had two weeks to prepare for the Aggies, who won 61-10 at San Jose State last week. BYU starting QB Tanner Mangum remains out indefinitely with an ankle injury.
-- Stanford QB Keller Chryst was ‘questionable’ for Saturday’s home game vs. Arizona State as of Thursday. Chryst, who has four TD passes without an interception this year, was in concussion protocol.
-- As of Thursday, there was a growing sentiment in Athens that QB Jacob Eason could be ready to play Saturday at Tennessee. Eason sprained his knee in the first quarter of the season-opening 31-10 win over Appalachian State To be clear, Jake Fromm will start and will almost certainly remain the starter until he falters. But there seems to be a good chance that Eason will be available for back-up duty in Knoxville.
-- Miami (OH) junior LB Junior McMullen is ‘questionable’ at Notre Dame after missing last week’s 31-14 win at Central Michigan with an undisclosed injury. He was the RedHawks’ second-leading tackler last season behind only senior safety Tony Reid, who is suspended for the first half in South Bend for a targeting penalty at CMU. A third Miami (OH) defensive starter is listed as ‘questionable’ in junior DE Dean Lemon. The RedHawks are 13-5 ATS in 18 games as road underdogs during Chuck Martin’s four-year tenure. They are 21-point road underdogs against the Fighting Irish.
-- Middle Tennessee star QB Brent Stockstill has been ruled out at FAU and will miss a third straight game due to a shoulder injury. WR Richie James remains ‘questionable’ with an ankle injury. Stockstill had a 31/7 TD-INT ratio in 10 games last season, while James had 105 receptions for 1,625 yards and 12 TDs. In the Blue Raiders’ first three games, James had 18 catches for 208 yards and two TDs. FAU is a three-point home favorite.
-- Ball State owns a 7-0 spread record as a road underdog on Mike Neu’s watch, but starting QB Riley Neal has been ruled ‘out’ at Western Michigan with a leg injury. Junior RB James Gilbert, a first-team All-MAC selection last year when he rushed for 1,332 yards and 12 TDs, is ‘doubtful’ with a hand injury. Neal has completed 44-of-68 passes for 421 yards and three TDs compared to one interception. The Cardinals are 14.5-point ‘dogs against the Broncos.