Cnotes 2017 College Football Picks-Trends-News Etc. !

[CNOTES]

Kirk has breakout game after being slowed 1st 3 weeks
September 26, 2017


COLLEGE STATION, Texas (AP) Texas A&M's Christian Kirk was so upset when he walked off the field after the game against Louisiana-Lafayette two weeks ago that he couldn't even enjoy the win.


The star receiver and returner was mad at himself for muffing a punt and not performing as well as he thought he should on offense.


''I hold myself to a very high standard, probably to a standard that nobody else can hold me to,'' Kirk said. ''And I felt my game against (Louisiana-Lafayette) was probably one of the worst games I've had since I've been here and it ate me alive inside.''


It was then that he vowed to atone what he thought was a poor performance when the Aggies returned to the field on Saturday in their Southeastern Conference opener. Kirk was able to do just that, returning a kick 100 yards for a touchdown and finishing with 110 yards receiving with two touchdowns in a 50-43 overtime win against Arkansas.


''He was really, really frustrated the week before by his own performance,'' coach Kevin Sumlin said. ''But pride is a great motivator and he's got tremendous pride and tremendous work ethic. When he walked off the field after Lafayette, he was just mad at himself, it wasn't anything else. But he came back, went to work and I wasn't worried about him the next Saturday. That's the kind of guy he is.''


Kirk entered the season as one of the top receivers in the country after piling up 1,937 yards receiving combined in his first two seasons. He got off to a slow start this season and didn't have more than 60 yards receiving in any of Texas A&M's first three games as he dealt with near-constant double teams.


On Saturday he was not only able to have a breakout game on offense, he also led the Aggies on special teams when he finished with 136 kick return yards to earn SEC special teams player of the week. Kirk's kick return touchdown on Saturday was Texas A&M's first since Coryell Judie had an 84-yard return on Nov. 12, 2010. Kirk holds the school's record for special teams touchdowns with six after returning five punts for scores in his first two seasons with the Aggies.


Sumlin wasn't concerned about him when he wasn't putting up the kind of numbers he had in the past, and was quick to point out that when teams double-teamed him it led to opportunities for other players on the offense.


''Everybody understands his capability,'' Sumlin said. ''Numbers are going to come for him when he gets his touches. As things roll on he's going to have his opportunities just like he did last Saturday.''


Kirk had an 81-yard touchdown reception in the first quarter on Saturday and his 10-yard TD reception in overtime gave the Aggies the win. The performance drew the attention of Arizona Cardinals star receiver Larry Fitzgerald who tweeted congratulations to Kirk for his big game and added: ''go get that Biletnikoff Trophy,'' referring to the award given annually to the nation's top collegiate receiver.


Kirk, who grew up in Arizona and has long admired Fitzgerald, was thrilled to be recognized by someone of his caliber.


''It means the world,'' he said. ''It gives me goosebumps thinking about it just because being an Arizona native and growing up he's been with the Arizona Cardinals ever since I've lived there just growing up and watching him. He's the face of the Arizona Cardinals ... so just to be recognized by a guy that's going to be in the Hall of Fame, it means a lot.''


Kirk knows that he tends to be too hard on himself, so he did allow himself to enjoy his big game for a bit this weekend. But when he returned campus this week he was right back to critiquing his game and said after watching the film that he could have blocked better and ran crisper routes.


''If you ... go into the film room after the game and you feel like you can't find anything and you're like: `I'm good. I'm just going to roll into practice and keep it up,' then you're not going to get any better,'' he said. ''You have to be critical of yourself. You've got to be able to find an area to get better at every week.''

 

[CNOTES]

Bryce Love's yards against UCLA put him in Pac-12 lead
September 26, 2017


Bryce Love was essentially Christian McCaffrey's understudy the last two seasons, and he clearly learned well.


Love racked up 263 yards in a 58-34 Stanford victory over UCLA last weekend. He averaged 8.8 yards per carry and had the second-most yards in a single game in school history, behind McCaffrey's 284 against California on Nov. 19.


Love's highlight was a 69-yard touchdown dash in the fourth quarter. The junior from North Carolina became the first player in 20 years with a 50-yard-plus run in six straight games, according to the school.


It was also Love's sixth straight game with more than 100 yards rushing. He's the first Stanford running back with at least 100 yards rushing in each of his first six career starts.


McCaffrey, of course, broke Barry Sanders' NCAA record of 3,250 all-purpose yards, finishing with 3,864 as a sophomore at Stanford in 2015. He led the Pac-12 in rushing with 1,603 yards last season before declaring himself eligible for the NFL draft. He was the eighth overall pick by the Carolina Panthers.


Love said Tuesday that he picked up a lot of lot of things from McCaffrey, including his competitive spirit.


''One thing I always tell people is that there were a lot of little things that he did that really set him apart,'' Love said. ''Like how he was in the classroom, how he was one the field.''


And also like McCaffrey, Love is humble and a hard worker, said Stanford coach David Shaw.


''Here's Christian, who is an All-American and a record breaker and worked so hard every single day, and at the same time he was the first one to celebrate Bryce's successes. That humility, combined with hard work, is something not just coaches but teammates appreciate,'' Shaw said. ''And Bryce has been every bit of that. He will work hard, he will push himself, he doesn't ever say `Look at me, I'm the guy now.' You see him do his job, do what he's supposed to do and continue to work.''


Other coaches are quickly catching on to Love.


Utah's Kyle Whittingham was able to watch most of Stanford's win on Saturday night. The Utes have a bye this week, but they've got the Cardinal up next.


''He's got the quickness, the speed, the toughness, instinct, vision. The whole nine yards,'' Whittingham said. ''So he's a guy we'll have our hands full with. Typical Stanford football team, smash-mouth, physical football.''


Love burst onto the scene with 180 yards rushing and a touchdown in Stanford's 62-7 victory over Rice in the opener in Australia. He leads the nation with 787 total rushing yards and five scores. He's averaging 196.7 yards a game, also first nationally.


The Cardinal (2-2) have Arizona State (2-2) on Saturday.

A look at the Pac-12's other top rushers:


ROYCE FREEMAN, Oregon: Ranks fifth nationally with 541 total rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. He's averaging 135.3 yards a game, ninth nationally.


Freeman finished with 81 yards rushing and a touchdown in Oregon's 37-35 loss at Arizona State last week, setting the school record for career rushing TDs with 54 (besting LaMichael James).


Freeman was widely considered a Heisman contender at the start of last season but he struggled with injuries. He still ran for 945 yards and nine scores, and there was talk he might go to the NFL.


The Ducks were in upheaval after a 4-8 season and the dismissal of coach Mark Helfrich. New coach Willie Taggart reached out to Freeman right away, paying him a visit in Imperial, California, in December.


The town is a two-hour drive east of San Diego, so Taggart didn't just pop by.


''He just wanted me to know he was behind me 100 percent, and wanted to make all my dreams come true. I mean, just be behind me whatever I wanted to do and get everything I wanted accomplished,'' Freeman said.


And what are those dreams?


''That's personal, man,'' Freeman said.


The Ducks (3-1) will host California (3-1) on Saturday night.

PHILLIP LINDSAY, Colorado: Lindsay ranks 13th nationally with 446 rushing yards and four TDs. He averages 111.5 yards rushing a game, 20th nationally.


Lindsay led the league last season with 16 rushing touchdowns. He picked up right where he left off, rushing for 140 yards on 19 carries in Colorado's 17-13 season-opening victory over Colorado State. Lindsay had a 45-yard touchdown run in the first quarter.


He added 151 yards rushing and a score two weeks later in a victory over Northern Colorado.


Buffaloes coach Mike MacIntyre called Phillips the team's heart and soul: ''He's our fire.''


''The great thing about him at running back is he can do everything. He can block, he can catch and he can run. A lot of guys can't do all three phases,'' MacIntyre said. ''Some can really run, some can catch it out of the backfield, some can block. But he can do it all, and is very good at all of the phases.''

Colorado (3-1) visits UCLA (2-2) on Saturday.

 

[CNOTES]

Turnovers a concern as Spartans eye Big Ten opener
September 26, 2017


EAST LANSING, Mich. (AP) LJ Scott is an experienced running back, a player Michigan State is counting on to provide consistent production on offense.


So far this season, he's been anything but reliable.


Scott already has lost three fumbles in 2017, two of which came near the goal line when the Spartans were on the verge of scoring. After a 3-9 season last year, Michigan State faces enough obstacles without also having to worry about its top players giving the ball away. Scott is part of a running back group that the team should be able to lean on, but he has to cut down on the turnovers.


''It's my third year here. We're one of the strongest parts of the offense,'' Scott said. ''It should not be happening.''


Michigan State (2-1) lost 38-18 to Notre Dame last weekend. The Spartans had nearly 500 yards of total offense, but three first-half turnovers kept the game from being close. Scott fumbled into the end zone, and quarterback Brian Lewerke lost a fumble of his own and had an interception run back for a touchdown.


Michigan State has allowed two touchdowns on fumble returns this year, as well as the Notre Dame interception return. With the Spartans' Big Ten opener against Iowa (3-1, 0-1) coming up Saturday, taking care of the ball is obviously a priority.


''We continue to work ball security drills and try and make them as game-like as we can,'' Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio said Tuesday. ''But there is nothing like the game when it's real contact, real physical contact, and you really can't simulate that totally in every practice.''


Scott isn't the only culprit. The team has lost six fumbles in three games. Lewerke had one last weekend that gave Notre Dame possession just outside the red zone.


It's an issue the Spartans can address during the week, to some extent.


''We have ball security-emphasis drills, where there's guys trying to strip the ball out next to you,'' said Lewerke, who has emerged as a running threat for Michigan State in addition to his passing. ''It's kind of just a focus on, when you're running, just have to think about holding onto the ball, not fumbling.''


The last time Michigan State faced Iowa was in the 2015 Big Ten title game. Scott scored the winning touchdown when he twisted and reached the ball out toward the end zone with one hand . Not the greatest display of ball security, but it worked.


''The ball could have come out but it didn't, and everybody celebrated,'' Dantonio said. ''So sometimes it doesn't catch up to you until it catches up to you. But he's been a very good back.''


Now Scott is trying to kick this fumbling habit before it turns into an even bigger problem. In addition to the more formal drills the Spartans can work on, Scott says he also has been carrying a ball around with him while teammates try to knock it away.


''Just going room to room, wherever - a team meeting room, locker room,'' Scott said. ''It's crucial in the locker room because ain't no coaches can say stop. So it's everybody just beating on me. Everybody's just beating on me.


''I guess I deserve it at this point, but at the end of the day, it'll definitely help me. I shouldn't be at this point right now.''

 

[CNOTES]

Baylor WR Platt, DE Jones likely to miss rest of season
September 26, 2017


WACO, Texas (AP) Baylor receiver Chris Platt is expected to miss the rest of the season because of a left knee injury.


Coach Matt Rhule said Tuesday defensive end Xavier Jones also is likely done for the year because of a broken bone in his foot.


Both Platt and Jones were hurt in the Bears' 49-41 loss to third-ranked Oklahoma on Saturday in their Big 12 opener.


''We're anxious to get them back for their senior year next year,'' Rhule said. ''As it is right now, it looks like they will be out for the season unless something changes.''


Platt, also a Big 12 champion and All-America relay runner for the Baylor track team, immediately grabbed his left knee after his leg appeared to bend awkwardly while being tackled at the end of a 1-yard gain on a shuffle pass early in the third quarter. That came only minutes after his 72-yard touchdown catch.


Through four games for the winless Bears, Platt had 16 catches for 401 yards and five touchdowns. He is the only player in the country with four receptions of at least 50 yards. He caught five passes for 93 yards against Oklahoma.


''I don't know if you can replace Chris' big-time, big-play capabilities, but that's where we are,'' Rhule said.


***************************


Miami-Ohio's coach a familiar foe for No. 22 Notre Dame
September 26, 2017


Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly beams with pride like proud father when he talks about this year's football team.


After a disastrous 2016 campaign, the Fighting Irish have taken the field in their first four games with a chip on their shoulders, hoping to restore the standard of excellence that marked Notre Dame teams of the past.


At 3-1 after last week's 38-18 win at Michigan State, Fighting Irish football officially is fun again -- at least for the 22nd-ranked Notre Dame players, coaches and fans. For their opponents -- not so much.


"The men, the mission is to play for championships and to have championship-type performances week in and week out," Kelly said during his Tuesday news conference. "We expect nothing less from our football team again this weekend."


This week's opponent, Miami (Ohio), will present a special challenge to Kelly and the Irish when the RedHawks come to South Bend, Ind., for Saturday's game. The Miami head coach isn't just another tactician wearing a headset on the opposite side of the field.


There isn't one coach in America who understands Kelly more than Chuck Martin. They've been together for so long, each could finish the other's sentences.


"I know if I ever need something, I call Brian Kelly," Martin told the Blue and Gold website. "In most situations I don't need to call him. I don't really need to call Brian Kelly to get his opinion -- I pretty much know Brian Kelly's opinion on everything."


The 49-year-old Martin, who has coached in seven national championship games, was an assistant under Kelly, first at Grand Valley State and then at Notre Dame. Martin is a winner and has been a winner everywhere he has coached, although it's taking a little longer with the RedHawks (2-2) at the "Cradle of Coaches" in Oxford, Ohio.


He took over for Kelly at Grand Valley State and all his team did was record 48 straight wins.


And when Kelly brought Martin to Notre Dame, it was a dream come true. As offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, Martin helped the Irish to a 12-0 mark and spot in the 2012 National Championship Game against Alabama.


"The thing about him that is unique, I think, is he can always keep a clear mind and make clear decisions," Martin said. "He always has assessed his teams and his organization and looked at all phases on and off the field, and he's always been able to sit back and make clear decisions."


Martin has been a Notre Dame fan since he was 5 years old, when he watched the Fighting Irish beat Alabama 24-23 in 1973 to win the national title.


That makes Saturday's game against Notre Dame a juicy conundrum for the fourth-year RedHawks coach.


"I'm almost 50 years old and I've never not rooted for Notre Dame a day in my life," Martin said during his teleconference on Monday. "Saturday at 5 o'clock, I'm going to be rooting against Notre Dame, so that will be a little bit awkward for me."


Kelly is taking a more pragmatic approach to facing Martin.


"You get to know coaches so well that there's a familiar face that you know and have been around and have probably either played golf with or have chummed around with in the offseason," Kelly said. "But you know, I think it ends there.


"I know how he is going to prepare his football team. He knows how I'll prepare my football team."


The focus for the RedHawks will be stopping a Notre Dame offense that's led by dynamic junior dual-threat quarterback Brandon Wimbush and running back Josh Adams. After four games, the Irish running attack ranks seventh in the country at 293.5 yards per game.


Running behind an offensive line that returned four starters from last season, Adams has rushed for 499 yards and is 11th in the nation, averaging a healthy 7.68 yards per carry.


Wimbush has 366 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground to go along with 664 yards in the air and three scores.


The Irish are a perfect 19-for-19 inside the red zone.


"He can bring things to the table that maybe other quarterbacks couldn't," Martin said of Wimbush. "Using his legs more than other QBs in the past. He's got such a strong arm, so he can make every stinkin' throw look easy."


The defense also is light years different from last season's. It's giving up 18.5 points per game, which ties Notre Dame for 29th best in the nation. And after four games, the defense has forced nine turnovers, with the Irish turning those miscues into 56 points. For the year, Notre Dame holds a 56-3 edge in points off turnovers.


Miami ranks 27th in the country in total defense (310.8 yards per game) and 33rd in scoring defense (19.0).


The RedHawks rely on ball control and the offense ranks 25th in the country in time of possession, holding onto the ball for an average of 32:43 per game.


Junior quarterback Gus Ragland accounted for three touchdowns as Miami beat Central Michigan 31-14 last week in the RedHawks' Mid-American Conference opener. He's thrown for 881 yards and eight touchdowns this season.


Saturday's game also will have special meaning for both schools as they honor the memory of Ara Parseghian, who died on Aug. 2.


Parseghian won a pair of national titles while coaching the Irish from 1964-74 and was a two-time graduate from Miami University (1949 and 1954), where he played football, basketball and baseball.


This will be the second time the two schools have met. The first meeting was over 100 years ago. Notre Dame beat Miami 46-0 on Nov. 14, 1909, in South Bend.

 

[CNOTES]

Big Ten Report - Week 5
September 26, 2017


2017 BIG 10 STANDINGS


Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under


Illinois 2-1 0-0 1-2 1-2


Indiana 2-1 0-1 2-1 2-1


Iowa 3-1 0-1 2-2 1-3


Maryland 2-1 0-0 2-1 2-1


Michigan 4-0 1-0 2-2 1-2-1


Michigan State 2-1 0-0 2-1 1-2


Minnesota 3-0 0-0 2-1 1-2


Nebraska 2-2 1-0 1-3 2-2


Northwestern 2-1 0-0 1-2 1-1-1


Ohio State 3-1 1-0 1-3 2-2


Penn State 4-0 1-0 2-1-1 1-3


Purdue 2-2 0-1 3-1 1-3


Rutgers 1-3 0-1 3-1 1-3


Wisconsin 3-0 0-0 2-1 2-1




Friday


Nebraska (-6.5) at Illinois – (FS1, 8:00 p.m. ET)


The Huskers have had a tumultuous season thus far to say the least. On the field they struggled to get by Arkansas State at home in their opener, lost a close game at Oregon despite getting outgained by 200 yards, lost at home to Northern Illinois with help from two Tanner Lee pick 6’s, and then weren’t overly impressive in a 27-17 win over a Rutgers team that has won a grand total of one game in the last 370 days! Their AD was surprisingly fired early last week which puts current head coach Mike Riley on the hottest seat in the country. After their first loss EVER to a MAC team two weeks ago and a non-descript performance last week, this is pretty much a must win for the Huskers. A loss here could send their season on a downward spiral if it isn’t already. QB Tanner Lee continues to be a turnover machine throwing 2 more interceptions vs Rutgers including ANOTHER pick 6. He now has 9 interceptions which is the most in the nation. After allowing Rutgers to go 75 yards for a TD on their opening drive, the Husker defense buckled down holding the Scarlet Knights to just 119 total yards the rest of the way. After their first drive, Nebraska’s defense allowed Rutgers to cross mid-field just twice and both of those drives started in Husker territory. NU’s top RB Tre Bryant remains questionable for this one after missing the last two games.


Illinois has the luxury of a week off to get ready for this game. The Illini are a surprise 2-1 on the season but they have been outgained by a combined total of 429 yards in those games. They are currently dead last in the Big Ten in total offense (290 YPG) and dead last in total defense (433 YPG). Illinois may have a bit of a QB controversy as starter Chayce Crouch was replaced in the second half of their most recent game by Jeff George Jr. Despite the 47-23 loss at USF, George seemed to give the offense a boost throwing for 211 yards and 1 TD pass. Let’s face it though, neither have been great as the two Illinois QB’s have combined for a grand total of 2 TD passes this year to go along with 5 interceptions. That’s a problem when your rushing attack puts up only 110 YPG. On top of all that, this team is last in the Big Ten as well in penalty yardage at almost 90 per game. Not much positive to say about the Illini right now. Hard to believe they are 2-1.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Huskers are 15-6 ATS their last 21 road games. Since joining the Big Ten, Nebraska is 3-1 in this series with wins by margins of 15, 20, and 31 points. Their lone loss was at Illinois in 2015 by a final score of 14-13. These two met last year in Lincoln with the Huskers winning 31-16 with a yardage edge of 420 to 273. Since 1994, the Illini are just 27-39 ATS as a home underdog.


Saturday


Iowa at Michigan State (-3.5) – (FOX, 4:00 p.m. ET)


The Hawkeyes are off an absolute heartbreaking home loss last weekend. Iowa led at half by the score of 7-5 despite being outgained 206 to 44 in total first half yardage. PSU held Iowa scoreless in the 3rd quarter and led 15-7 entering the final frame. After doing next to nothing offensively the entire game, Iowa kicked it in gear and scored two fourth quarter TD’s to take the lead 19-15 (missed both 2-point conversions) the second with just 1:42 remaining in the game. Those two TD drives were both just 3 plays long and totaled 74 and 80 yards. Those 6 plays accounted for 154 of Iowa’s 273 total yards in the game! The Nittany Lions ended the game on a 12 play, 65-yard TD drive in which they converted two fourth downs including their 7-yard TD pass as time expired. With that PSU topped Iowa 21-19 and ran a ridiculous 99 offensive plays compared to just 45 for the Hawkeyes. With the extra 54 offensive plays Penn State was able to outgain Iowa 579 to 273. However, despite being outgained by over 300 yards, Iowa actually averaged 6 yards per play while PSU came in at 5.8 YPP. Iowa has relied on defense and their running game for years and while the defense has done its part, the rushing attack has not. The Hawks are averaging just 3.79 YPC after 4 games ranking them 12th in the Big Ten. With an inexperienced QB under center, that will definitely need to change moving forward for Iowa to be successful.


Michigan State was rocked at home last Saturday 38-18 by Notre Dame (-3). While the Irish definitely looked like the better team on the field, the 20 point margin was a bit deceiving. Sparty dug themselves a hole very quickly as the Irish went 78 yards on 7 plays to open the game with a quick TD. On MSU’s first possession QB Brian Lewerke threw a pick 6 and it was 14-0 just 4:30 into the game. Michigan State lost the turnover battle 3-0 and those giveaways were game turning as one was a pick 6 and the other was a fumble at the goal line as they were about to score a TD. You would think looking at the final score the Irish dominated the numbers but that wasn’t the case. MSU actually outgained Notre Dame 496 to 355 but they also ran 25 more offensive plays making the YPP numbers much closer (5.7 to 5.5). It has been tough to gauge the Spartans this year as their first two games were wins vs MAC teams and both were ideal situations for the Green & White. These two last met in the 2015 Big Ten Championship game which was a 16-13 MSU win. It will be interesting to see how each of these teams respond off tough losses.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Since 1980, these two have met 29 times. Iowa is 17-11 SU & 19-9-1 ATS in those games. The Hawkeyes are 11-3 ATS their last 14 games in East Lansing winning 8 of those games outright. Since 2002, the Spartans are just 3-8 ATS at home when coming off a home loss the previous week.


Northwestern at Wisconsin (-14.5) – (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)


The Cats had last week off to get ready for their trip to Madison. Northwestern has been a bit of a disappointment this year and many consider them a team that could make a run at the Big 10 West Title. They still definitely could as this is their first conference game so the others can in a sense be thrown out. NW is 2-1, however they struggled to beat a Nevada team that has since lost to Toledo, Idaho State (as a 32-point favorite), and Washington State by a final score of 45-7. The Cats lone road game was a disaster as they were throttled at Duke 41-17 as a 2-point favorite. It wasn’t a fluke as the Devils outgained NW by 347 yards! They looked much better two weeks ago destroying Bowling Green but who hasn’t? BG is 0-4 including a loss to FCS South Dakota at home. The defense has struggled as they are one of just four Big Ten teams allowing over 400 YPG. That includes 157 YPG on the ground and they’ll need to shore that up against a Wisconsin team leading the Big Ten in rushing at 275 YPG.


The Badgers also had last week off. They needed it as they are a bit banged up after their first 3 games, especially on the offensive line. Both starting offensive guards are injured heading into this one and it looks like Beau Benzschawel will play while Jon Dietzen may not. Wisconsin is 3-0 and off an impressive road win at BYU 40-6 outgaining the Cougars by 300 yards. They are outgaining their opponents by a full 3.3 yards per play on the year (7.7 offensive YPP to 4.4 defensive YPP). The Badgers lead the Big Ten in rushing and have found a gem at the position. Freshman Jonathan Taylor has the size (210 pounds) and speed (New Jersey state 100 meter champion) to be a difference maker. He has been just that already in his short career as he leads the Big Ten at 146 YPG rushing on over 8 YPC. Northwestern has given Wisconsin some problems as the teams have each won 13 games over the last 26 meetings. That’s despite Wisconsin being favored in 25 of those 26 games.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Since 1980, the Badgers have been favored in 30 of their 31 meetings with Northwestern. Despite that, they are just 18-13 SU in those games. Since 2001, Wisconsin has hosted NW 5 times. The most recent in 2015 was a controversial 13-7 loss when late Badger TD was disallowed. The other 4 were UW blowouts by margins of 12, 29, 32, and 47 points. NW has covered 10 of their last 15 when tabbed a dog of 14 or more. However leading into that run, they were just 2-11 ATS in that situation.


Maryland at Minnesota (-13) – (FS1, 12:00 p.m. ET)


Just when the Terps looked like they were starting to turn the corner they lose another QB for the season. Maryland’s 10-point win to open the season at Texas is starting to look very good after the Horns went to USC and nearly won. That win in Austin was orchestrated by starting QB Pigrome who passed for 2 TD’s and ran for another. He went out with an ACL injury late in the 3rd quarter and is lost for the season. His back up, highly touted freshman Kasim Hill stepped in and the Terps looked like they wouldn’t miss a beat. Last week Hill tore his ACL in a home loss to UCF and is also out for the season. That means 3rd stringer Max Bortenschlager (61 career pass attempts with 28 of those coming last week) now takes over as the starter. Bortenschlager took over for Hill late in the first quarter last week with the Terps trailing just 3-0 vs UCF. After he took over Maryland’s drives went something like this…Stopped on downs, punt, interception, missed FG, punt, punt, punt, TD, punt, pick 6, punt. Those 11 offensive possessions resulted in 7 points and 163 total yards. The good thing is, Maryland won’t have to rely solely on their inexperienced QB as their rushing attack with Ty Johnson leading the way is very good. They average 224 YPG and Johnson leads the Big Ten averaging a whopping 10 YPC.


While Maryland was dealing with another huge injury on the field last week, Minnesota was resting. The Gophs had the week off after crushing Middle Tennessee State 34-3 two weeks ago. They dominated the Blue Raiders on the ground rolling up 221 yards and did very little through the air (122 yards). That’s been the blueprint for the Gophers offense this year. In three games this team has 156 rushing attempts and just 58 pass attempts. They are dead last in the Big Ten with 519 total passing yards so far this season. QB Conor Rhoda has been solid when asked to throw hitting on 65% of his pass attempts. Rhoda was splitting time under center with Demry Croft, however Croft was dismissed from the team leading into their game with MTSU so it’s all on Rhoda now. The Gophs defense has looked very good ranking 2nd in the league allowing just 239 YPG. We probably just aren’t sure how good they are quite yet as they’ve played Buffalo (89th in total offense), Oregon St (98th in total offense) and MTSU without their starting QB. Even with that, this team is an impressive 3-0 outscoring their opponents 99-24 so far this season.


INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Gophers are 1-1 ATS this year in games where they are favored by double digits. Heading into this season, they had lost 8 of their previous 10 games to the number when favored by 10 or more. These two have met once since Maryland joined the Big Ten. That was last year and Minny went into College Park and won 31-10 as a 3.5 point dog. The yardage was close but Maryland committed 4 turnovers including throwing a pick six.


Ohio State (-29.5) at Rutgers – (BTN, 7:30 p.m. ET)


The Bucks have responded nicely after their home loss to Oklahoma a few weeks ago outscoring their next two opponents (Army & UNLV) 92-28. Despite two dominating wins, OSU failed to cover both games as huge favorites. Last week vs UNLV they were favored by 40 points and looked well on their way to a cover leading 44-7 at half. They took their foot off the proverbial gas in the 2nd half playing many back ups including QB Dwayne Haskins who took over for JT Barrett. UNLV went on to “win” the second half 14-10 and get the cover. The Buckeye offense racked up 664 total yards and had an impressive 25 plays of 10 yards or more. The defense has slipped a bit early in the year compared to last season. After four games the OSU stop unit is allowing 20 PPG and 367 YPG which ranks them in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten. Last season they allowed 16 PPG on 197 YPG. Speaking of defense, the Buckeyes are led by Greg Schiano on that side of the ball and he returns to his old stomping grounds for the first time. Schiano was the head coach at Rutgers for 11 seasons.


Rutgers put up a good fight in last week’s 27-17 loss at Nebraska but the results were all too familiar. Another loss. They have now lost 17 of their last 18 conference games and have yet to win a Big Ten contest under head coach Chris Ash (0-10). The offense continues to be a struggle for this team. If you throw out their game vs FCS Howard, they have only scored 4 offensive TD’s in their other 3 games. Last week they had 17 points, however 7 of those points came on a pick 6 thrown by Nebraska QB Tanner Lee. Defensively they’ve been pretty solid. They are one of 6 Big Ten teams to allow less than 5 yards per play this season. They held a very good Washington offense to just 2 offensive TD’s in their season opening 30-14 loss. Rutgers was a 28 point dog in that game at home and now is looking at a very similar number with OSU favored by 29.5.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Last year when these teams met in Columbus, the Buckeyes were a 39-point favorite and won 58-0. These two have faced off 3 times since Rutgers joined the Big Ten. The Buckeyes have won all 3 games in blowout fashion outscoring the Knights by a combined 163-24! This is the 6th highest point spread for OSU on the road dating back to 1980. They have been a road favorite of 28 or more just 7 times since 1980 (4-3 ATS). This is the 9th time Rutgers has been a home dog of 28 or more in the last 38 seasons. They are 2-7 ATS in those games losing by an average score of 50-10.


Indiana at Penn State (-17.5) – (BTN, 3:30 p.m. ET)


The Hoosiers should be well rested for this game as they have played only one game in the last 22 days. That game was last week at home vs Georgia Southern. Their previous game was way back on September 9th. IU jumped out to a 31-0 lead last week early in the 2nd quarter at home vs Georgia Southern. They went on to win the game 52-17 and the Hoosiers scored 3 non-offensive TD’s in the game (two defensive TD’s and one special teams TD). Indiana was only +92 in total yardage, however much of GSU’s yardage came after the game was out of reach. In fact, 265 or GSU’s 375 total yards came after they were already trailing 31-0. The Hoosiers definitely look like a team that could cause some of the big boys in the conference some problems. They led Ohio State 21-20 late in the 3rd quarter before falling apart down the stretch. They won handily at Virginia 34-17 which looks more impressive now as the Cavs are 3-1 including a 42-23 win at Boise State which is always a tough place to play. Starting QB Richard Lagow left the Georgia Southern game with a leg injury but head coach Tom Allen stated he could have returned if needed. He should be fine for this game.


We’re not sure what to think of PSU right now. They are obviously very good. How good? We’re not sure. Coming into last week, they had played a very easy schedule with their only big name win coming over Pitt. They won that game 33-14, however Pitt outgained PSU in that one 342 to 312. The Panthers also had 3 turnovers in that game. At the time it didn’t look like a big deal that Pitt had better overall stats, however it’s what the Panthers have done since that has us wondering. Since that loss, Pitt has been creamed by Oklahoma State and Georgia Tech. Last week the Nittany Lions picked up a nice 21-19 win at Iowa, always a tough place to play. PSU dominated the stats and ran 54, yes 54 more offensive plays in the game. With that we wonder why it took a game winning drive and a TD pass as time expired to win 21-19? Seems to us with those numbers the game should have been an easy win for Penn State. Their seasonal numbers look great as they are averaging 7.4 YPP (tops in the Big Ten) while allowing only 4.0 YPP (2nd best in the Big Ten).


INSIDE THE NUMBERS – PSU has won 19 of the 20 meetings in this series. Penn State is on a pointspread roll to say the least going 11-1-1 ATS their last 13 games. Last year PSU won this match up 45-31 in Bloomington. Talk about a deceiving final score. IU actually led 31-28 with under 4:00 minutes remaining in the game! The Lions scored 17 straight points in the span of 3 minutes and 30 seconds to make the final margin 14. Indiana is just 59-83-5 ATS (41%) as a road dog over the last 37 seasons.

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 5
September 26, 2017


THURSDAY, SEPT. 28


Matchup Skinny Edge


TEXAS at IOWA STATE...Texas 1-3 as road chalk the past two years, and Herman 2-4 his last six in role at UH. ISU 4-1-1 as home dog since LY, and Matt Campbell on 9-3-1 spread run with Cyclones. Campbell teams 18-9-1 as dog at Toledo & ISU. ISU has covered 3 of past 4 meetings.
Iowa State, based on team trends.


FRIDAY, SEPT. 29


Matchup Skinny Edge


MIAMI-FLA. at DUKE...Miami actually has three covers in a row vs. Duke, though Cutcliffe on 36-18-1 spread run. Canes 4-1 as road chalk LY, though Cutcliffe 6-1 last 7 as home dog.
Slight to Duke, based on Cutcliffe trends.


NEBRASKA at ILLINOIS...Riley’s only cover TY was thanks to Oregon sitting on 42-14 HT lead, that’s his only spread W last six since late LY. Riley 2-4 as road chalk with Huskers. Lovie, however, on 1-5 spread run, but Illini has covered past two seasons vs. Huskers.
Slight to Illinois, based on recent series trends.


BYU at UTAH STATE...Cougs off slowly TY, Sitake now on 0-5 spread slump since late 2016. But Cougs have thumped USU last two and 3 of last 4 meetings. Utags 6-15 last 20 on board since mid 2015.
Slight to BYU, based on recent series trends.


USC at WASHINGTON STATE...Leach 9-3 last 12 as dog. Helton only 1-4 vs. line last five on board since late LY, only 3-9 last 12 vs. line away from Coliseum.
Washington State, based on team trends.




SATURDAY, SEPT. 30


Matchup Skinny Edge


CHARLOTTE at FIU... 49ers no covers first four TY, 0-7 last six vs. line since late LY, 7-17-2 last 25 on board. Golden Panthers were 3-0-2 as home chalk 2014-16.
FIU, based on Charlotte negatives.


RICE at PITT...Narduzzi only 3-13 vs. spread at Heinz Field since 2015, 2-9 as home chalk. Also 1-8 vs. line last nine vs. non-ACC. Bailiff has tailed off in recent years but Owls actually 4-2 vs. line last six since late LY, though only 5-9-1 as DD dog since 2014.
Slight to Rice, based on Pitt home woes.


SOUTH FLORIDA at EAST CAROLINA...ECU 2-11-1 last 14 on board! No covers last three vs. USF but did manage a push LY. USF 13-6-1 as chalk since 2015.
South Florida, based on team trends.


MEMPHIS at UCF (rescheduled from Sept. 9)...Tigers just 2-6 vs. spread last eight away from Liberty Bowl. Scott Frost 10-5 vs. line with Knights, 5-2 vs. spread as host.
UCF, based on team trends.


SYRACUSE at NC STATE...Pack was 4-1 as home chalk last year, though 0-2 laying 27+ in first two TY. Doeren was 12-4 as chalk 2015-16. Cuse was 4-7 as dog LY for Babers.
North Carolina State, based on extended trends.


EASTERN MICHIGAN at KENTUCKY...EMU 8-1 vs. line away from Ypsilanti. Cats no covers last 7 non-SEC, 1-6 last 7 laying DD.
EMU, based on team trends.


BALL STATE at WESTERN MICHIGAN...Ball 29-11 as road dog dating to the last Hoke year of 2008 (6-0-1 for Neu). That includes one very subpar 1-4 mark in role in 2015. Though WMU has won and covered last three in series. Broncs only 1-5 vs. line since late 2016.
Ball State, based on team trends.


CENTRAL MICHIGAN at BOSTON COLLEGE...Chips 3-11 last 14 on board, 2-6 last 8 away from home. But BC only 4-8 last 12 as chalk.
Slight to BC, based on recent CMU marks.


AKRON at BOWLING GREEN...Jinks 0-4 vs. line TY, 2-7 last 9 since mid 2016. Falcs 1-6 vs. line at home post-Babers.
Akron, based on recent BGSU struggles.


OHIO at UMASS...Mass no covers last four vs. FBS foes at home. Minutemen 3-9 vs. spread last 12 on board. Solich 6-1 vs. line last 7 as reg season visitor, covers last 2 as road chalk.
Solich and Ohio, based on team trends.


BUFFALO at KENT STATE... Bulls 3-1 vs. line TY, narrow miss vs. Colgate, but covered first two on road TY. Kent State 1-5 last six vs. spread. Though Golden Flashes have covered last two in series.
Buffalo, based on recent trends.


HOUSTON at TEMPLE...Temple 0-4 vs. line to begin 2017, no covers last five since Rhule announced departure before bowl. Cougs 9-5 vs. spread last 14 away from TDECU Stadium.
Houston, based on Temple negatives.


MARSHALL at CINCINNATI...Herd has started 3-0 vs. line TY (2-0 as dog) in a turnaround from 2016. Fickell 3-1 vs. line TY but Cincy still 7-13 last 20 on board. Bearcats 3-6 as Nippert chalk since ‘2015.
Slight to Marshall, based on team trends.


BAYLOR at KANSAS STATE...Bill Snyder 8-5 vs. spread last 13 as Big 12 host, and has covered 3 of last 4 vs. Baylor.
KSU, based on team trends.


MARYLAND at MINNESOTA..Fleck on 29-15 spread run since late 2014 (2-1 with Gophers). Terps 4-9 last 13 on board.
Minnesota, based on Fleck marks.


OHIO STATE at RUTGERS...Buckeyes won this one 58-0 LY! Urban has won and covered all three vs. Rutgers since 2014, no margin under 39. But Meyer just 7-10 overall last 17 vs. line.
Slight to OSU, based on series trends.


IOWA at MICHIGAN STATE...Ferentz 9-2-1 vs. line last 12 as visitor. (8-2 last ten on Big Ten road), though MSU 6-2 vs. spread last eight as Big Ten host.
Iowa, based on Ferentz road mark.

FLORIDA STATE at WAKE FOREST...Clawson 7-2 vs. line last nine on board since mid 2016. Clawson 7-1 last eight as dog, 7-4 as home dog since 2014, and has covered handily past two years vs. Jimbo.
Wake Forest, based on team trends.


NORTHWESTERN at WISCONSIN...Fitz has won and covered 2 of last 3 vs. Wiscy, though Badgers won LY. NU 9-3 as visiting dog since 2014. Badgers 14-4 last 18 vs. number.
Slight to Northwestern, based on Fitz road dog mark.


INDIANA at PENN STATE...Nittany Lions 12-2 last 14 on board, 5-2 last seven laying DD, and have covered last two vs. IU. Hoosiers 6-3 last nine as DD dog.
Penn State, based on team trends.


NAVY at TULSA... Mids have won and covered last two meetings, and 21-11 vs. spread as visitor since 2011.
Navy, based on team trends.

UCONN at SMU...Edsall no covers first three TY, UConn now on 3-13-1 spread skid since late 2015. Ponies have covered first four TY, 6 of last 7, 9 of last 11 since mid 2016. SMU 7-1 last seven as chalk.
SMU, based on team trends.

TEXAS STATE at WYOMING...Tex State squeezing inside some big numbers in recent weeks but still just 4-9 as road dog since 2015 (4-3 however for Withers).
Slight to Wyoming, based on extended TSU road dog woes.


COLORADO at UCLA...Underdog side has covered last four in series. Mora 6-12 as Rose Bowl chalk since 2014. Buffs were 4-0 as visiting dog LY, 7-2 in role since 2015.
Colorado, based on team and series dog trends.

CALIFORNIA at OREGON...Wilcox 3-0 as dog already for Cal, after Dykes was 4-9 as dog past two years. Ducks 5-1 vs. line last six meetings, no SU losses vs. Cal since 2008. UO just 4-9 as Eugene chalk since 2015 (1-1 TY).
California, based on team trends.


WASHINGTON at OREGON STATE...Huskies only 5-7 vs. spread last 11 on board. They have covered 4 of last 5 vs. Beavers, though failed LY. OSU 0-4 vs. line TY.
Slight to Washington, based on series and team trends.


COASTAL CAROLINA at UL MONROE...ULM 5-11 as home chalk since 2012 (1-2 for Viator), 8-16-1 vs. line at home since 2012.
Coast Carolina, based on ULM home woes.


SOUTH CAROLINA at TEXAS A&M...Sumlin 6-13-1 last 20 as home chalk. SC has covered three straight away from home.
SC, based on team trends.

TROY at LSU... Troy 7-3-1 vs. line last 11 outside Belt. Orgeron no covers last three at Baton Rouge.
Troy, based on team trends.


NEW MEXICO STATE at ARKANSAS...NMSU 4-0 vs. line to start 2017, now 11-4 last 14 on board for Ags. Bielema only 5-8 last 13 as chalk, no covers last four outside of SEC.
NMSU, based on team trends.


SAN JOSE STATE at UNLV...Spartans 4-0 SU, 3-1 vs. line against UNLV since joining MW. But SJSU just 3-14 last 17 as visiting dog.
UNLV, based on SJSU road dog woes.

UTEP at ARMY...Army rolled 66-14 at Sun Bowl LY! Kugler on 5-10-1 spread skid (0-4 TY) and 6-17 as DD dog since 2013.
Army, based on UTEP negatives.


VANDERBILT at FLORIDA...Derek Mason has covered last two years vs. Florida and 7-4 last ten as dog. McElwain just 7-12-1 vs. spread last 20 on board since late 2015.
Vandy, based on team and recent series trends.


GEORGIA at TENNESSEE...Butch Jones 3-8-2 last 13 vs. line. Dog team has covered five straight in series.
Slight to Georgia, based on recent Vol negatives.


NORTH TEXAS at SOUTHERN MISS...USM surprising 3-0 vs. line out of gate, making it five covers in a row since late LY for Jay Hopson. Golden Eagles still just 1-5 as home chalk for Hopson.
Slight to North Texas, based on USM recent home chalk woes.


SOUTH ALABAMA at LA TECH...USA only 4-10 as road dog since 2014 (though 1-0 TY). Skip Holtz 28-17 vs. line since 2014.
La Tech, based on USA road woes.

MIAMI-OHIO at NOTRE DAME...RedHawks 5-1 as dog away from home since LY. ND just 2-6 last eight as home chalk.
Miami-Ohio, based on team trends.

MTSU at FAU... MTSU 4-2 vs. spread last six on C-USA road. Stockstill has beaten FAU nine in a row SU, and covered 7 of last 8. Owls 2-6-1 vs. line last 9 in Boca Raton (1-1 for Kiffin).
MTSU, based on team and series trends.


MISSISSIPPI STATE at AUBURN... Dan Mullen 3-1 vs. spread against Malzahn, and Bulldogs 9-3 last 12 as visiting dog.
Miss State, based on team and series trends.

NORTH CAROLINA at GEORGIA TECH...Fedora has won and covered last three in series, and has covered four straight as visiting dog. But Paul Johnson has covered seven straight since late LY.
Georgia Tech, based on recent trends.


CLEMSON at VIRGINIA TECH...VPI has covered seven straight vs. FBS foes, and is 4-1 vs. spread last five as ACC host. Dabo just 5-9 as visiting chalk since 2014.
Virginia Tech, based on team trends.


AIR FORCE at NEW MEXICO...Davie 5-0 vs. line against Force since taking over Lobos in 2012. UNM has won SU 3 of last 4 meetings and has been a dog in all five of those covers.
New Mexico, based on series trends.


OLE MISS at ALABAMA...With Hugh Freeze, Rebs covered last 3 vs. Bama and won SU in two of those. Luke, however, 0-3 vs. line, and Rebs on 0-5 and 1-9 spread skids since LY. Saban 4-1 last five as SEC home chalk.
Alabama, based on recent trends.


OKLAHOMA STATE at TEXAS TECH...Note that road team has covered last four in series. TT, however, 6-2-1 vs. line last 9 at Lubbock. Gundy just 6-6-1 vs. points last 13 on Big 12 road.
Slight to Texas Tech based on team trends.


ARIZONA STATE at STANFORD...ASU now 1-5-1 last seven vs. line on road. Tree just 2-5 as Farm chalk LY, but since Shaw was 9-4 vs. spread previous two years in role.
Stanford, based on ASU negatives.


NEVADA at FRESNO STATE...Tedford 3-0 vs. line TY for Fresno, Bulldogs actually have covered last five and 8 of last 10 since 2016. FSU 5-2 vs. line last seven in series.
FSU, based on team and series trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at SAN DIEGO STATE...Huskies 3-0 vs. line TY, covers in five straight, 7-0-1 last 8, 9-1-1 last 11 since early 2-16. NIU 6-1 as visiting dog since 2015. Rocky 4-0 SU TY but no covers last three as Qualcomm chalk, 1-6 vs. line last 7 hosting non-MW.
NIU, based on team trends.


COLORADO STATE at HAWAII...Bobo has now covered six straight and 8 of last 9 as visitor. UH 1-10 vs. spread last 11 as MW host.
CSU, based on team trends.

 

[CNOTES]

Passing fancy in Big 12: No. 15 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
September 27, 2017


Some things to watch during Week 5 in the Big 12, with three conference games and four teams taking their bye weeks:


GAME OF THE WEEK


No. 15 Oklahoma State (3-1, 0-1 Big 12) at Texas Tech (3-0, 0-0). Expect a lot of points when the Red Raiders play their Big 12 opener at home against Oklahoma State, which is trying to rebound from a home loss to TCU in its first league game last week. The Cowboys beat Tech 45-44 last November in Stillwater after a missed late extra point for their eighth straight win in the series. Both teams have scored at least 34 points in each of the past four games of the series. The Red Raiders are trying to start 4-0 for the first time since 2013, which was former quarterback Kliff Kingsbury's first season as their coach.


BEST MATCHUP


Texas Tech's Nic Shimonek and Keke Coutee vs. Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph and James Washington - the quarterbacks and top receivers for the Big 12's top two passing teams. Shimonek (11 TDs, one interception) tops the Big 12 with 416 yards passing per game, while Rudolph (13 TDs, three interceptions) throws for 383 yards per game - they rank 3-4 nationally. Coutee leads the Big 12 with 9.3 catches and 148.7 yards receiving per game. While Washington only has 4.8 catches per game, he averages a league-high 27.4 yards per catch and is second in the league at 130 yards per game.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS


Iowa State (2-1) has scored at least 40 points in each of its first three games for the first time since 1976 - the Cyclones have never had four in a row. ... Iowa State, which hosts Texas on Thursday night, has also set a school record with six consecutive 400-yard games. ... Kansas State (2-1) plays its Big 12 opener at home for only the fifth time in the league's 22 seasons, Saturday against Baylor (0-4). ... The Wildcats are 20-9 after midseason bye weeks under coach Bill Snyder. ... Texas (1-2) has scored five non-offensive touchdowns already this season after none last year. ... The four Big 12 teams with byes this week: No. 3 Oklahoma, No. 9 TCU, No. 23 West Virginia and Kansas.


PLAYER TO WATCH


Baylor sophomore Denzel Mims had a couple of acrobatic catches among his 11 receptions for 192 yards and three touchdowns against Oklahoma. Mims is fifth in the Big 12 averaging 101.5 yards receiving per game. Bears junior Chris Platt is sixth at 100.2 yards per game, but is expected to miss the rest of the season after suffering a knee injury against the Sooners.

 

[CNOTES]

The Dozen: Hokies back on map
September 27, 2017

This week is unique in that two of the best matchups take place on a Friday night, so we should get a few days of treats from the college game. The game features the defending champs battling their third high-profile opponent after their worst showing of the season. Here's the finest that September's final weekend has to offer:


1. Clemson at Virginia Tech: The Tigers have come through in impressive fashion against Auburn and Louisville, dominating defensively despite the presence of two of the better offensive minds in the college game in Gus Malzahn and Bobby Petrino. Clemson shut down Lamar Jackson's chances of winning a Heisman Trophy and snuffed out Jarrett Stidham's before we even got started despite the late summer surge in hype over Auburn's new quarterback. The Hokies don't have a candidate for college football's top individual honor to focus in on, but do have arguably the best defense that Clemson will face to date.


Blacksburg will be at a fever pitch, so a Virginia Tech team that went 57-10 between a decade span of 2003-12 before going 9-10 from '13-'16 will look to try and reclaim that aura of invincibility Lane Stadium once enjoyed. Under new head coach Justin Fuente, the Hokies are 7-1 at home, but unranked Miami has provided their toughest test. This will be a different animal, under the lights on a national stage.


Clemson and Boston College entered the fourth quarter tied at 7 this past weekend before the defending champs put the game away with 27 consecutive points. The Hokies found something in the second half of December's ACC Championship to cut a large deficit to 42-35 and make the final minutes interesting, so they shouldn't be lacking for confidence. Neither QB involved in that game, Deshaun Watson and Jerod Evans, will participate here. Neither of their successors are as accomplished slinging it just yet, but Kelly Bryant has gotten the job done with his legs while Tech's Josh Jackson has the early edge in ACC passing efficiency. This one should hinge on defense, so monitor potential personnel issues in the secondary on both sides. Here's hoping it's as exciting as last week's top matchup, where Penn State survived Iowa on the final play.

2. USC at Washington State: The nightcap to an excellent Friday slate brings us the Pac-12's top matchup in a week where the league has plenty of attractive games. Sam Darnold has thrown more interceptions than anyone expected, but has also put his brilliance on display in leading the Trojans to a perfect 4-0 start. He saved his best for Stanford, which may be an indication that he's having issues with focus. The Western Michigan, Texas and Cal games were all closer than they should've been entering the fourth quarter, but USC made plays when necessary to pull them all out. This will be its second straight road game and first outside of California, so it provides a great setting for Darnold to lock in and keep his team from flirting with disaster. likely spell serious trouble in Pullman.


Keep in mind that there may be rain and temperatures in the 50s to deal with, so the elements could have an impact. The undefeated Cougs are playing their fifth consecutive home game and have a savvy senior QB leading the way in Luke Falk, so conditions are ripe for an upset. Early sharp money came in on the home team. Washington State will have to reverse trends that have seen it lose nine of 10 against USC in addition to a 3-31 against ranked opponents to cash. As recently as 2008, the Cougars were a 42-point underdog against the Trojans and lost 69-0. Head coach Mike Leach beat USC in a weird 10-7 game back in 2013, the lowest-scoring output in a win during his tenure.


Leach has yet to beat a ranked team at home since taking over the program in 2011. Although there are injury concerns along both lines, Southern Cal will have leading rusher Ronald Jones (thigh) and top receiver Deontay Burnett (shoulder) available. Washington State appears to be in good shape.


3. Georgia at Tennessee: Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart has long been known as a defensive genius, enjoying tremendous success at Alabama for nearly a decade while also enjoying jobs at other top schools in addition to an NFL stint in Miami. His success in Athens is no fluke. After an 8-5 first season, the verdict was still out on whether he'd be able to get the job done in the head seat, but he's gotten off to a great first month in Year 2. Most encouraging, his defense has gotten the job done in a tough game at Notre Dame and snuffed out Mississippi State last Saturday in a battle of unbeatens, holding them to three points. Opponents are averaging 12.5 for the season.


The Dawgs are back on the road here, and it's important for true freshman Jake Fromm to continue gaining confidence. The kid looks poised enough to keep the job ahead of the highly regarded Jacob Eason, who is returning from injury soon but unlikely to be handed his gig back given what's transpired to date. Butch Jones' seat is scalding hot after his Vols followed up a loss to Florida on a Hail Mary by barely beating FBS Independent UMass 17-13 in Knoxville. He's expressed displeasure at the way his program is covered, but would be better served finding a way to move the ball. QB Quinten Dormady has struggled, which has many in Knoxville hoping redshirt freshman Jarrett Guarantano gets a shot. If Tennessee sputters early against an impressive Georgia defense, we could hear loud, scathing boos far more often than we get a choruses of Rocky Top at Neyland Stadium. Jones' Vols spoiled Smart's first home SEC opener on a Hail Mary to WR Jauan Jennings last year.


4. Northwestern at Wisconsin: The undefeated Badgers open conference play coming off the only bye they'll get this season. Alex Hornibrook has been impressive with his decision-making at QB and comes off a record-setting 18-for-19 showing where he racked up 256 yards and four TDs in a rout of BYU. True freshman RB Jonathan Taylor has ascended to the top of the depth chart, running behind an offensive line that has thus far been banged up but is among the nation's best when healthy. Wisconsin has to be taken seriously as a national contender, which makes this matchup compelling since it had lost consecutive games against Northwestern before winning 21-7 last year.


Pat Fitzgerald's Wildcats also had an additional week to prepare and have big plans for the season despite suffering an early loss at Duke. With a homecoming game against Penn State scheduled for next week, Northwestern should be mentally prepared to play its best to begin what is easily its toughest stretch of the season. QB Clayton Thorson threw for 370 yards in his last start while RB Justin Jackson has the school's all-time rushing record within his sights and already has led his teams to a pair of wins over Wisconsin due to his efforts on the ground.


5. Miami at Duke: The Hurricanes trailed Toledo last week, then unleashed a furious rally and ended up winning 52-30. QB Malik Rosier made plays, running back Mark Walton overcame an ankle sprain to run for 204 yards on 11 carries and a program looking to post double-figure wins for the first time since 2003 took another step forward under Mark Richt. This will end up being their road opener despite their original schedule calling for visits to Arkansas State and Florida State. Mother Nature had other ideas for the 'Canes, who return to Durham for the first time since pulling off a miracle comeback win on a last-second lateral-filled kickoff return that ended up providing one of 2015's best finishes.


The Blue Devils are also undefeated and own wins over Northwestern, Baylor and rival North Carolina. With a national Friday night stage, they could really open some eyes and get halfway to matching the school-record for wins (10) before the season's first month is over. QB Daniel Jones had his ups and downs as a freshman but has been sharp with his decision-making and toughness thus far. Linebacker Ben Humphreys, arguably Duke's most polished player, should be out there but was injured on a chop block in last week's win at UNC, limping off the field after the impact. He and backup RB Brittain Brown missed practices but should play. The Blue Devils last beat Miami at home back in 2013.


6. Oklahoma State at Texas Tech: The Red Raiders lost last year's meeting in Stillwater 45-44 when kicker Clayton Hatfield missed an extra point with 1:44 left. Ironically, he's questionable here and would be a notable absence if he can't go since his current backup struggled in Saturday's upset at Houston. Going into last weekend, both of these teams were undefeated and facing tough matchups, but it was Tech that went out on the road and persevered.


Oklahoma State lost at home to TCU, never quite getting the stops they needed after falling behind early. QB Mason Rudolph has thrown 13 touchdown passes and has averaged 383.3 yards per game but was intercepted three times by the Horned Frogs to contribute to the 44-31 loss. He'll be looking to solve a Texas Tech defense that is obviously improved and looks sharp in the defensive backfield.


The Red Raiders have dropped eight straight meetings in this series and have surrendered an average of nearly 58 points per game over the last six losses. QB Nic Shimonek ranks fifth in the nation in passing efficiency, third in passing yards and eighth in TD passes while throwing just one pick. Key linebacker Jordyn Brooks is questionable with a knee injury and would leave huge shoes to fill in this upset bid.


7. Mississippi State at Auburn: This would be a lot higher on the list if not for how Georgia dominated last Saturday's battle of Bulldogs, winning 31-3. Mississippi State was coming off a win over LSU and looking like the SEC West's second-best team behind Alabama, which would've set this up as perhaps the top matchup of the day. Auburn did its part, beating Missouri 51-14 to open conference play in style. Besides losing at Clemson, the Tigers haven't been tested much since they faced struggling Georgia Southern and Mercer before wiping the floor with Mizzou in Columbia. Auburn's running backs, Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson, have yet to be healthy at the safe time but are both expected to play. Linebacker Tre' Williams and corner Javaris Davis.


Mississippi State beat Auburn twice behind Dak Prescott, including a 27-19 win at Jordan-Hare in 2015. They were obliterated last year as QB Nick Fitzgerald, leading to the Bulldogs falling behind 35-0 by halftime before ultimately losing 38-14. They'll need WR Malik Dear, one of the team's top playmakers, in place to provide a dynamic weapon, but list him as questionable with a knee injury.


8. Indiana at Penn State: The Hoosiers led Ohio State at halftime in their season opener and hung around into the third quarter, so the Nittany Lions shouldn't expect much of a reprieve after nearly falling at Iowa last weekend. Trace McSorley hit Juwan Johnson with a touchdown pass as time expired to avoid an upset, making sure RB Saquon Barkley's 358 all-purpose yards weren't wasted. Barkley is the Heisman frontrunner at the moment but was held to just 93 yards on 33 carries against IU last season, though he did score a pair of fourth-quarter TDs to help erase a double-digit second-half deficit.


Then-defensive coordinator Tom Allen is the Hoosiers' head coach now and has seen his team outscore Virginia and Georgia Southern by a combined margin of 86-34 since losing to the Buckeyes. Indiana has outscored opponents 62-23 in the first half, so if Penn State suffers any hangover from last Saturday night's emotional win, it should be able to take advantage and make this one interesting. The Hoosiers have captured only one of 20 all-time meetings, prevailing 44-24 in Bloomington in '13.


9. Memphis at UCF: Although USF is the favorite in the American and top the short list of most respected teams among the "Group of Five," these two have already grabbed headlines and have captivated anyone paying attention. The Tigers beat UCLA outright at home and have won five of its last six games, counting wins over Houston and Cincinnati in that mix. The Knights obliterated Maryland last week after a few weeks off due to Hurricane Irma's impact in Orlando.


The originally scheduled date for this matchup (Sept. 9) was a casualty of the storm, which ultimately helped Memphis' cause in its home upset of the Bruins since they were fresher and made winning plays down the stretch as a result. QB Riley Ferguson threw for nearly 3,700 yards and 32 touchdowns last year, but he introduced himself to anyone who didn't already know about him by coming out on top in a duel against future first-round pick Josh Rosen. UCF sophomore McKenzie Milton has bulked up and looks to have a firm grasp on the offense, but it's the defense and running game that will key the program's success this season. Both teams will run into Navy in October, but the winner here has an opportunity to enter the national rankings and continue generating momentum. These programs are on the rise, but UCF comes in healthier despite losing one of its top RBs, Jawon Hamilton, to a broken leg. Memphis has lost nine straight in the series, last winning in 1990.


10. Cal at Oregon: Both teams lost for the first time on Saturday, so even though each looks much improved under their first-year head coaches, the loser here will dig themselves a hole in Pac-12 play. While the Bears were a 17-point home underdog against USC, the Ducks were 10.5-point favorites at Arizona State and fell 37-35 when QB Justin Herbert couldn't find any rhythm on the team's final two drives, sailing passes and missing receivers.


New head coach Justin Wilcox will look to try and confuse Herbert the way he has Ole Miss' Patterson and USC's Darnold already this season. Between him and defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter, the Bears have a brain trust that might be able to slow down a typically explosive Ducks offense that has nonetheless had a few power outages already this season. To have a shot at an upset, Cal must have QB Ross Bowers (8 INTs) take better care of the ball. Oregon had won seven straight in this series before losing last year's game 52-49 in 2OT.


11. Ole Miss at Alabama: The Rebels have handed the Crimson Tide half of their four losses over the last three seasons, a fact that can't be erased even if the NCAA chooses to do just that and take away those victories due to the scandals that ultimately lost Hugh Freeze his job. Interim head coach Matt Luke comes off both his first bye week and first loss, getting blown away in the second half in Berkeley. The 27-16 loss came in part because of the loss of top receiver AJ Brown and starting center Sean Rawlings, whose absence disrupted all chemistry up front, creating problems for QB Shea Patterson on the road. Both his security blanket and his top offensive lineman have practiced this week and are expected back for this one, which is a prerequisite to have any success as a four-touchdown underdog in Tuscaloosa.


'Bama crushed previously unbeaten Vanderbilt 59-0 in Nashville, outgaining the Commodores 677-88 while rushing or nearly 500 yards. The Crimson Tide held the ball for nearly 43 minutes and played flawless ball a week after committing their first turnover in a sloppy win over Colorado State. After impressively handling Florida State to open the season, the Tide had looked rather ordinary in beating Fresno State and CSU, but took no prisoners in their first true road game, taking a huge step forward. 'Bama lost in '14 and '15 before surviving last season's game 48-43 after falling behind 24-3. Trust that Nick Saban has reminded them of all of this on an endless loop over this past week.

12. Arizona State at Stanford: Bryce Love has eliminated all concern that the Cardinal running game would be unable to replicate Christian McCaffrey's production. He's already run for 787 yards and five scores through four games, averaging 10.8 yards per carry. He's broken off a run of 50 or more yards in six straight games and should make life easier on likely new starting QB K.J. Costello, who provided a spark in Saturday's 58-34 win over UCLA. Head coach David Shaw hasn't committed to naming a starter yet, but even if veteran Keller Chryst remains under center, it's inevitable that Costello will get snaps and ultimately take over. The Sun Devils will try to build off their upset of Oregon, but have lost 10 of 12 true road games under Todd Graham, with the wins coming at UCLA and most recently, UT-San Antonio. ASU won the last meeting back in '14, snapping a four-game series losing streak.


Others: Iowa at Michigan State, Florida State at Wake Forest, Colorado at UCLA, South Carolina at Texas A&M, Northern Illinois at San Diego State, Vanderbilt at Florida, North Carolina at Georgia Tech, Maryland at Minnesota, Baylor at Kansas State, Air Force at New Mexico.

 

[CNOTES]

College Football Picks: Whittling down field of unbeatens
September 27, 2017


With a quarter of the college football season in the books, 24 undefeated teams remain, along with the possibility that each Power Five conference could have an undefeated champion.


That is highly unlikely. It has not happened during the BCS and College Football Playoff era, and with 12-game schedules, three conferences playing nine league games and all five playing conference championship games, it makes heading into the postseason unbeaten more difficult than ever.


In the three-year playoff era, only one of the four semifinalists each season has come in without a loss.


The best-case and most-realistic scenario for any conference is a championship game matching two teams with a good case to make the playoff. The conference championship play-in game, if you will. The best example was the Michigan State-Iowa Big Ten championship game in 2015, when both had a combined one loss and it was apparent that the winner was getting in.


It helps a conference if its best teams don't face each other during the regular season. That can't happen in the Big 12, which has no divisions and a round-robin nine-game schedule. No matter what, that title game will be a rematch - which is one of the reasons bringing back the so-called 13th data point was an odd move for the Big 12.


It is a long, long way away but if you squint you can see the possibility of some killer conference title games in December, with playoff play-in potential and matchups of teams that didn't play in the regular season:


ACC - Clemson and Miami.


Big Ten - Penn State and Wisconsin.


Pac-12 - Washington and Southern California.


SEC - Alabama and Georgia.


That's way off. For now, a couple of cross-divisional conference games matching ranked teams - No. 2 Clemson at No. 12 Virginia Tech and No. 5 Southern California at No. 16 Washington State - highlight the schedule and will be help whittle the field of unbeaten teams. There will be no more than 20 after Saturday.


FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS


No. 5 Southern California (minus 3 +) at No. 16 Washington State


So many reasons to pick the Cougars in an upset: USC is playing a second straight road game on a short week, with some key players banged up. Seems too obvious ... USC 30-28.


No. 14 Miami (minus 7) at Duke


The last time the Hurricanes played at Duke, the officials had a bad night and Miami came away with a bizarre victory ... MIAMI 31-21.


MAIN EVENT


No. 2 Clemson (minus 7) at No. 12 Virginia Tech


Lane Stadium will be rocking, but it will take a lot more than Metallica to take down the defending national champions, who have won seven straight against ranked teams ... CLEMSON 28-17.


UNDERCARD


No. 24 Mississippi State (plus 10) at No. 13 Auburn


Bulldogs have won three of the last five meetings ... AUBURN 24-20.


CONFERENCE CALLS


Mississippi (plus 27 +) at No. 1 Alabama


Rebels have scored 109 points in last three meetings with the Tide, including two victories ... ALABAMA 38-14.


Indiana (plus 17 +) at No. 4 Penn State


Nittany Lions Heisman contender Saquon Barkley has scored a touchdown in 11 straight games, longest active streak by a running back in FBS ... PENN STATE 45-16.


No. 6 Washington (plus 26 +) at Oregon State

Huskies have won eight straight road games and five straight against the Beavers ... WASHINGTON 48-14.

No. 7 Georgia (minus 7) at Tennessee


Butch Jones and the Vols have won the last two against the Bulldogs and could desperately use some positive news this season ... GEORGIA 27-17.

Northwestern (plus 14 +) at No. 10 Wisconsin


Wildcats have won six of the last 11 meetings ... NORTHWESTERN 28-27, UPSET SPECIAL.

No. 11 Ohio State (minus 29 +) at Rutgers


Since the Scarlet Knights joined the Big Ten, they have lost three games to the Buckeyes by an average of 54-8 ... OHIO STATE 45-13.

No. 15 Oklahoma State (minus 9) at Texas Tech


Red Raiders are one of eight undefeated and unranked teams, but that would change with one more victory ... OKLAHOMA STATE 41-35.

No. 18 South Florida (minus 23) at East Carolina


Bulls have scored at least 30 points in 21 straight games, two short of an FBS record held by Oregon (2011-13) ... USF 50-24, BEST BET.


Northern Illinois (plus 11) at No. 19 San Diego State


NIU's third-best run defense in the nation (2.24 yards per carry) against Aztecs RB Rashaad Penny, who is second in the nation in rushing (179 ypg) ... SAN DIEGO STATE 23-13.

Vanderbilt (plus 10) at No. 21 Florida


Gators should be a little more Vandy's speed than Alabama ... VANDERBILT 21-20.


UPSET-MINDED


Miami, Ohio (plus 21 +) at No. 22 Notre Dame


Former Notre Dame assistant Chuck Martin brings a promising MAC squad to South Bend ... NOTRE DAME 38-14.


Troy (plus 21) at No. 25 LSU


Tigers going for their 50th straight nonconference home victory ... LSU 34-17.


TWITTER REQUESTS


Memphis (plus 4) at UCF - (at)HaroldGraeter


AAC's latest rising-star coaches square off: Mike Norvell of Memphis and Scott Frost of UCF ... MEMPHIS 35-32.


Iowa (plus 3 +) at Michigan State - (at)Colin-Dilworth


First regular-season meeting since 2013 ... MICHIGAN STATE 24-21.


Colorado (plus 7) at UCLA - (at)sideoutpar


Bruins looking to avoid three-game skid that would leave their season in shambles ... UCLA 34-30.


South Carolina (plus 9) at Texas A&M - (at)college43884707


Losing WR Deebo Samuels (broken leg) has stifled the Gamecocks' offense ... TEXAS A&M 31-20.


---


Record last week: 18-7 straight up; 10-15 against the spread.


Record this season: 70-20 straight up; 26-50-3 against the spread.


Upset specials: 2-2.


Best bets: 2-1.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF opening line report: College football opening lines on the move early
Patrick Everson


“Not only did the house need the Trojans against Cal this past Saturday, but 69 percent of the early bettors are on Washington State this week, quickly moving the Cougars from +6 to +4.5."


Conference play is in full swing for Week 5 of the college football season. We check in on the opening lines and early action for a few noteworthy matchups, with insights from Dave Mason, brand manager for offshore sportsbook BetOnline.ag.


No. 5 Southern California Trojans at No. 18 Washington State Cougars (+6)


Two unbeatens in the Pac-12 kick off the weekend a day early, with a 10:30 p.m. ET Friday night clash. Southern Cal is 4-0 SU, but hasn’t been particularly impressive in getting there, save for its solid win over Stanford in Week 2. In Week 4, the Trojans (1-3 ATS) traveled to California, where they trailed early and were still tied at 13 in the fourth quarter before pulling away for a 30-20 victory as a 16.5-point favorite.


Washington State (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) has put up 45 points or more in three of four games. The Cougars rumbled over Nevada 45-7 as a hefty 28.5-point chalk this past Saturday.


“With a 1-3 record against the spread, the public seems to be fading USC,” Mason said. “Not only did the house need the Trojans against Cal this past Saturday, but 69 percent of the early bettors are on Washington State this week, quickly moving the Cougars from +6 to +4.5. Within the first few hours after the openers hit the board, there were more bets on Washington State than any other team.”


No. 2 Clemson Tigers at No. 13 Virginia Tech Hokies (+7)


The Atlantic Coast Conference will also have a pair of perfect teams in prime time, for an 8 p.m. ET Saturday night contest. Defending national champion Clemson kept right on rolling in Week 4, routing Boston College 34-7 but falling short as a 33.5-point fave, the first pointspread setback of the year for the Tigers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS).


Clemson already has big wins over Auburn and Louisville, in Weeks 2 and 3 respectively.


VaTech sports the same 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS record, steamrolling three lightweights over the past three weeks after a solid opening neutral-site win over West Virginia. The Hokies dumped Old Dominion 38-0 laying 28.5 points in Week 4.


“With this top-20 matchup going down under the nationally televised prime-time lights, it’s safe to say this game will get more volume than any other game on the college football betting board,” Mason said. “A few respected bettors took the 7 real quick, moving the Hokies to +6.5. However, it’s looking like we will be Tech fans Saturday night, as 62 percent of early bettors are backing Clemson.”


No. 19 Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 16 Auburn Tigers (-9)


Mississippi State was the upstart of the first three weeks, which included a stunning home blowout of Louisiana State in Week 3. But the Bulldogs (3-1 SU and ATS) got a reality check Saturday at Georgia, where they were dealt a 31-3 bashing as a 2.5-point pup.


Auburn (3-1 SU, 1-2-1 ATS) seemed to get back in gear this past weekend, blasting Missouri 51-14 giving 18.5 points on the road. That win came after a very lackluster 24-10 win over Mercer as a massive 40-point favorite, a game that was perhaps a hangover from the Tigers’ 14-6 loss at Clemson as a 6-point ‘dog in Week 2.


“A month into the season, Auburn finally covered their first game of the season this past weekend, while Mississippi State failed to cover for the first time,” Mason said. “Early bettors are pretty split in this SEC showdown, with 58 percent of the public on the Tigers.”


The Bulldogs and Tigers kick off at 6 p.m. ET Saturday.


No. 7 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (+14.5)


Much like Mississippi State, Oklahoma State also got a huge dose of reality in Week 4. The Cowboys (3-1 SU and ATS) were averaging 54 points per game, but fell way short of that in a 44-31 upset loss as a 9-point home chalk against Texas Christian.


Texas Tech is out of the gate 3-0 SU and ATS, and in Week 4 hit the road for the first time, with great success. The Red Raiders went to Houston as a 7-point underdog and left with a 27-24 outright victory.


“Both teams have been generous to bettors this season,” Mason said. “Oklahoma State’s lone noncover was against TCU, which was the biggest college football winner of the weekend for BetOnline. After opening as 14.5-point dogs, Texas Tech immediately got bet down to +11.5.”


It’s another prime-time matchup, at 8 p.m. ET Saturday.

 

[CNOTES]

Sharps are closely monitoring these Week 5 college football games
Steve Merril


Sharps have flagged these games as lines to keep an eye on for Week 5:


Spread to bet now:


Indiana (+17) at Penn State


The Hoosiers have bounced back nicely since losing their season opener versus Ohio State, in which Indiana led in the third quarter before falling apart down the stretch. Since that game, the Hoosiers have won at Virginia 34-17, and beat Georgia Southern 52-17 in a game that saw Indiana rack up 282 yards on the ground. The win at UVA is becoming more impressive after Virginia's win at Boise State last Friday night.


Penn State is in a potential letdown spot with this lone home game against Indiana sandwiched between bigger road tilts at Iowa and Northwestern. The Nittany Lions expended a lot of energy in their narrow 21-19 win over the Hawkeyes last week and could struggle to find motivation this week, especially after going 3-0 SU against Indiana the past three years.


Spread to wait on:


Coastal Carolina (+11) at UL Monroe


Coastal Carolina is looking for their second win of the season as they travel to Louisiana Monroe. It's been a long week for the Chanticleers after getting blasted by Western Illinois this past Saturday. Coastal Carolina was competitive in their other two games this season, winning 38-28 versus Massachusetts and losing 23-30 at UAB. The Chanticleers want to grind out victories with their rushing attack that is averaging 239 yards per game on the ground and 5.5 yards per carry this year (versus opponents that allow just 176 yards and 4.5 ypr).


This week is probably a letdown spot for the Warhawks after a huge 56-50 overtime victory on the road against rival Louisiana Lafayette. UL Monroe is getting gashed on the ground this year, allowing 278 rushing yards per game on 6.2 yards per carry (versus opponents that average just 5.1 ypr). The Warhawks are only 3-13 SU the past two seasons and they have just three straight-up victories the last three seasons against teams with a losing record.


Total to watch:


Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (81)


This may seem like a high total, but for good reason as these two teams combined for 89 points (45-44) last season and 123 points (70-53) two years ago. Oklahoma State was "held" to just 31 points which was their lowest offensive output of the season last week versus TCU. The Cowboys are still averaging 48.2 points and 580 total yards per game on 8.1 yards per play this year (versus opponents that allow just 6.8 yppl). OSU has gone Over the total in 14 of their last 19 games as a favorite.


Texas Tech's offense has put up over 50 points twice at home already this season. They have thrown the ball at least 35 times or more in all three contests, while averaging 10.1 yards per pass this season (versus opponents that allow 8.9 ypp). The Red Raiders have gone Over the total in eight of their last 10 games against a winning opponent. This week's matchup presents a good opportunity for the nation to get to know quarterback Nic Shimonek.

 

[CNOTES]

College football's biggest betting mismatches: Week 5
Monty Andrews


Georgia RB Nick Chubb's six rushing scores are tied for the most in the SEC.


Miami Hurricanes at Duke Blue Devils (+5.5, 57)


Miami 3rd-down rate vs. Duke's 3rd-down defense


The Hurricanes have done plenty well on offense through their first two games, but would love to improve on a so-so showing on third downs - and that quest will be a challenging one this weekend, with the Blue Devils limiting drive extensions better than any team in Division I.


As great as things went in last week's 52-30 romp over Toledo, they could have gone even better had Miami not settled for a 3-for-9 performance on 3rd downs. It was a significant step down from the 4-of-8 showing the Hurricanes posted in their season-opening win over Bethune-Cookman.


That said, the four teams that have faced the Blue Devils this season will tell you just how tough it has been to make headway on third down.


Duke has allowed teams to avoid fourth down just seven times in 50 third-down attempts - a 14-percent success rate that ranks No. 1 in the nation. The Blue Devils were at their stingy best in their conference opener last week, holding North Carolina to a 3-for-16 success rate on third down in a 27-17 win over the Tar Heels.


Suffice to say that Miami has its work cut out for it.


NCAA football bettors looking at these teams very differently in Week 5: Live From Las Vegas
After some upset results in Week 4, college football bettors aren't so sure about these power programs and Las Vegas books are taking that shift into account when posting the NCAA football odds. We look at the biggest and best bets on the board with Jeff Stoneback, director of trading for MGM Resorts.


Georgia Bulldogs at Tennessee Volunteers (+7, 47)


Georgia's red-zone rampage vs. Tennessee's wretched RZ rate


Two teams headed in opposite directions meet this weekend at Neyland Stadium as the Georgia Bulldogs look to remain perfect against the Tennessee Volunteers.


Georgia posted one of the most impressive victories in all of Division I last weekend, dominating on both ends of the football in a 31-3 drubbing of then-No. 17 Mississippi State. Tennessee suffered a stunning 17-13 loss to UMass - and could be in for a long afternoon if it can't figure out a way to keep Georgia out of the red zone.


Only 17 Division I teams have converted every one of their red-zone visits into points so far this season - and the Bulldogs are one of them, having gone a perfect 13-for-13 through their first four games. Ten of those trips have resulted in touchdowns, including seven on the ground.


Of course, having RB Nick Chubb in the fold has helped, as Chubb's six rushing scores are tied for the most in the SEC. Georgia has the seventh-most red-zone visits of any team still perfect so far.


Look for that success to continue this weekend against a Volunteers team that has struggled to keep teams off the scoreboard once they get inside the Tennessee 20-yard line. The Volunteers rank outside the top 100 nationally in red-zone defense (90.9 percent), allowing 10 scores on 11 opponents visits - including seven touchdowns.


If the Bulldogs can get into the Tennessee red zone with regularity, look for Chubb and the rest of the Georgia offense to feast.


Clemson Tigers at Virginia Tech Hokies (+5.5, 51.5)


Clemson's turnover troubles vs. Virginia Tech's dynamic defense


You would be hard-pressed to find a defensive category in which the Clemson Tigers don't rank among the Division I leaders as they enter this week's highly touted matchup with Virginia Tech.


Clemson is allowing fewer than 10 points per game through its first four contests, has surrendered just four touchdowns, and limiting foes to 134.5 passing yards per game. But there's one area where the Tigers have struggled - and it's one where the Hokies own a sizeable edge.


Clemson owns a minus-2 turnover differential and ranks 110th in the nation in takeaways at 0.8 per game.


The Hokies have had no such issues with turnovers, combining a sensational offense (40.0 points per game, 27th in Division I) with an active defense that has forced three fumbles and four interceptions over the first four weeks of the season.


Only Duke, Syracuse and Pittsburgh have forced more turnovers among ACC teams, and combined with great ball security on the offensive end, Virginia Tech boasts a plus-5 turnover margin to date. If the Hokies can win the turnover battle Saturday, they could stun the visitors.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Long Sheet


Thursday, September 28


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TEXAS (1 - 2) at IOWA ST (2 - 1) - 9/28/2017, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
IOWA ST is 1-1 against the spread versus TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
IOWA ST is 1-1 straight up against TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Friday, September 29


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MIAMI (2 - 0) at DUKE (4 - 0) - 9/29/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-0 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 2-0 straight up against DUKE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEBRASKA (2 - 2) at ILLINOIS (2 - 1) - 9/29/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ILLINOIS is 123-161 ATS (-54.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 123-161 ATS (-54.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 61-89 ATS (-36.9 Units) in home games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 61-89 ATS (-36.9 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 81-123 ATS (-54.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ILLINOIS is 2-0 against the spread versus NEBRASKA over the last 3 seasons
ILLINOIS is 1-1 straight up against NEBRASKA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BYU (1 - 3) at UTAH ST (2 - 2) - 9/29/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BYU is 2-0 against the spread versus UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
BYU is 2-0 straight up against UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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USC (4 - 0) at WASHINGTON ST (4 - 0) - 9/29/2017, 10:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Saturday, September 30


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CHARLOTTE (0 - 4) at FLA INTERNATIONAL (2 - 1) - 9/30/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 1-0 against the spread versus FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 2-0 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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RICE (1 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (1 - 3) - 9/30/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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S FLORIDA (4 - 0) at E CAROLINA (0 - 3) - 9/30/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S FLORIDA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 38-58 ATS (-25.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
S FLORIDA is 2-0 against the spread versus E CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
S FLORIDA is 2-0 straight up against E CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SYRACUSE (2 - 2) at NC STATE (3 - 1) - 9/30/2017, 12:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SYRACUSE is 18-34 ATS (-19.4 Units) as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NC STATE is 1-1 against the spread versus SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
NC STATE is 2-0 straight up against SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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E MICHIGAN (2 - 1) at KENTUCKY (3 - 1) - 9/30/2017, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E MICHIGAN is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
E MICHIGAN is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALL ST (2 - 2) at W MICHIGAN (2 - 2) - 9/30/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALL ST is 72-49 ATS (+18.1 Units) in road games since 1992.
BALL ST is 72-49 ATS (+18.1 Units) in road lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
W MICHIGAN is 2-0 against the spread versus BALL ST over the last 3 seasons
W MICHIGAN is 2-0 straight up against BALL ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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C MICHIGAN (2 - 2) at BOSTON COLLEGE (1 - 3) - 9/30/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AKRON (1 - 3) at BOWLING GREEN (0 - 4) - 9/30/2017, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AKRON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOWLING GREEN is 2-0 against the spread versus AKRON over the last 3 seasons
BOWLING GREEN is 2-0 straight up against AKRON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OHIO U (3 - 1) at MASSACHUSETTS (0 - 5) - 9/30/2017, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (2 - 2) at KENT ST (1 - 3) - 9/30/2017, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KENT ST is 1-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
KENT ST is 1-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (2 - 1) at TEMPLE (2 - 2) - 9/30/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEMPLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MARSHALL (2 - 1) at CINCINNATI (2 - 2) - 9/30/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARSHALL is 41-67 ATS (-32.7 Units) in road games since 1992.
MARSHALL is 41-67 ATS (-32.7 Units) in road lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BAYLOR (0 - 4) at KANSAS ST (2 - 1) - 9/30/2017, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BAYLOR is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS ST is 87-60 ATS (+21.0 Units) in home games since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 87-60 ATS (+21.0 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 118-83 ATS (+26.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 147-110 ATS (+26.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 87-60 ATS (+21.0 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 68-40 ATS (+24.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS ST is 2-0 against the spread versus BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS ST is 1-1 straight up against BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MARYLAND (2 - 1) at MINNESOTA (3 - 0) - 9/30/2017, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OHIO ST (3 - 1) at RUTGERS (1 - 3) - 9/30/2017, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 178-136 ATS (+28.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 178-136 ATS (+28.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 55-34 ATS (+17.6 Units) as a road favorite since 1992.
OHIO ST is 72-46 ATS (+21.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 72-46 ATS (+21.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 115-86 ATS (+20.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
OHIO ST is 161-122 ATS (+26.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
OHIO ST is 66-41 ATS (+20.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OHIO ST is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games in September games since 1992.
RUTGERS is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO ST is 2-0 against the spread versus RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST is 2-0 straight up against RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IOWA (3 - 1) at MICHIGAN ST (2 - 1) - 9/30/2017, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN ST is 0-0 against the spread versus IOWA over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN ST is 1-0 straight up against IOWA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLORIDA ST (0 - 2) at WAKE FOREST (4 - 0) - 9/30/2017, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WAKE FOREST is 2-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA ST is 2-0 straight up against WAKE FOREST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NORTHWESTERN (2 - 1) at WISCONSIN (3 - 0) - 9/30/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WISCONSIN is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
WISCONSIN is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
NORTHWESTERN is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WISCONSIN is 1-1 against the spread versus NORTHWESTERN over the last 3 seasons
WISCONSIN is 1-1 straight up against NORTHWESTERN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANA (2 - 1) at PENN ST (4 - 0) - 9/30/2017, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) as a road underdog of 14.5 to 17 points since 1992.
PENN ST is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.
PENN ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
PENN ST is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
PENN ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PENN ST is 2-0 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
PENN ST is 2-0 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NAVY (3 - 0) at TULSA (1 - 3) - 9/30/2017, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NAVY is 162-120 ATS (+30.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 162-120 ATS (+30.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 78-39 ATS (+35.1 Units) in road games since 1992.
NAVY is 78-39 ATS (+35.1 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NAVY is 147-109 ATS (+27.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NAVY is 103-69 ATS (+27.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NAVY is 53-32 ATS (+17.8 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NAVY is 37-16 ATS (+19.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NAVY is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TULSA is 1-1 against the spread versus NAVY over the last 3 seasons
NAVY is 2-0 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CONNECTICUT (1 - 1) at SMU (3 - 1) - 9/30/2017, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in road games after playing a conference game since 1992.
CONNECTICUT is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS ST (1 - 3) at WYOMING (2 - 2) - 9/30/2017, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COLORADO (3 - 1) at UCLA (2 - 2) - 9/30/2017, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 40-71 ATS (-38.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
UCLA is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UCLA is 1-1 against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
UCLA is 1-1 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CALIFORNIA (3 - 1) at OREGON (3 - 1) - 9/30/2017, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON is 63-40 ATS (+19.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
OREGON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OREGON is 1-1 against the spread versus CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
OREGON is 1-1 straight up against CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (4 - 0) at OREGON ST (1 - 3) - 9/30/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON ST is 110-80 ATS (+22.0 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
OREGON ST is 65-43 ATS (+17.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OREGON ST is 1-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 2-0 straight up against OREGON ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COASTAL CAROLINA (1 - 2) at LA MONROE (1 - 2) - 9/30/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA MONROE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

S CAROLINA (3 - 1) at TEXAS A&M (3 - 1) - 9/30/2017, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S CAROLINA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 since 1992.
TEXAS A&M is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS A&M is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS A&M is 61-90 ATS (-38.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
TEXAS A&M is 46-69 ATS (-29.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
S CAROLINA is 2-0 against the spread versus TEXAS A&M over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS A&M is 2-0 straight up against S CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROY (3 - 1) at LSU (3 - 1) - 9/30/2017, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW MEXICO ST (2 - 2) at ARKANSAS (1 - 2) - 9/30/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO ST is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992.
NEW MEXICO ST is 89-118 ATS (-40.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NEW MEXICO ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN JOSE ST (1 - 4) at UNLV (1 - 2) - 9/30/2017, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in September games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 54-34 ATS (+16.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
UNLV is 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
UNLV is 83-120 ATS (-49.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
UNLV is 30-49 ATS (-23.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE ST is 2-0 against the spread versus UNLV over the last 3 seasons
SAN JOSE ST is 2-0 straight up against UNLV over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UTEP (0 - 4) at ARMY (2 - 2) - 9/30/2017, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTEP is 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.
UTEP is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARMY is 1-0 against the spread versus UTEP over the last 3 seasons
ARMY is 1-0 straight up against UTEP over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VANDERBILT (3 - 1) at FLORIDA (2 - 1) - 9/30/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
VANDERBILT is 2-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 2-0 straight up against VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GEORGIA (4 - 0) at TENNESSEE (3 - 1) - 9/30/2017, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA is 63-41 ATS (+17.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 1-1 against the spread versus GEORGIA over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 2-0 straight up against GEORGIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NORTH TEXAS (2 - 2) at SOUTHERN MISS (2 - 1) - 9/30/2017, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SOUTHERN MISS is 1-1 against the spread versus NORTH TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
SOUTHERN MISS is 1-1 straight up against NORTH TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

S ALABAMA (1 - 3) at LOUISIANA TECH (2 - 2) - 9/30/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S ALABAMA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
S ALABAMA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
S ALABAMA is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
LOUISIANA TECH is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
S ALABAMA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI OHIO (2 - 2) at NOTRE DAME (3 - 1) - 9/30/2017, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI OHIO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
NOTRE DAME is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIDDLE TENN ST (2 - 2) at FLA ATLANTIC (1 - 3) - 9/30/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLA ATLANTIC is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 14-31 ATS (-20.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIDDLE TENN ST is 2-0 against the spread versus FLA ATLANTIC over the last 3 seasons
MIDDLE TENN ST is 2-0 straight up against FLA ATLANTIC over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MISSISSIPPI ST (3 - 1) at AUBURN (3 - 1) - 9/30/2017, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
AUBURN is 1-1 against the spread versus MISSISSIPPI ST over the last 3 seasons
AUBURN is 1-1 straight up against MISSISSIPPI ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

N CAROLINA (1 - 3) at GEORGIA TECH (2 - 1) - 9/30/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA TECH is 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
N CAROLINA is 2-0 against the spread versus GEORGIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
N CAROLINA is 2-0 straight up against GEORGIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEMSON (4 - 0) at VIRGINIA TECH (4 - 0) - 9/30/2017, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA TECH is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEMSON over the last 3 seasons
CLEMSON is 1-0 straight up against VIRGINIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AIR FORCE (1 - 2) at NEW MEXICO (2 - 2) - 9/30/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 28-55 ATS (-32.5 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO is 2-0 against the spread versus AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
NEW MEXICO is 2-0 straight up against AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OLE MISS (2 - 1) at ALABAMA (4 - 0) - 9/30/2017, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
ALABAMA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
ALABAMA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
ALABAMA is 55-79 ATS (-31.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OLE MISS is 2-0 against the spread versus ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
ALABAMA is 1-1 straight up against OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OKLAHOMA ST (3 - 1) at TEXAS TECH (3 - 0) - 9/30/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS TECH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS TECH is 81-52 ATS (+23.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 81-52 ATS (+23.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 78-50 ATS (+23.0 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS TECH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS TECH is 68-46 ATS (+17.4 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
OKLAHOMA ST is 85-56 ATS (+23.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS TECH is 1-1 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA ST is 2-0 straight up against TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA ST (2 - 2) at STANFORD (2 - 2) - 9/30/2017, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEVADA (0 - 4) at FRESNO ST (1 - 2) - 9/30/2017, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FRESNO ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
FRESNO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus NEVADA over the last 3 seasons
NEVADA is 2-0 straight up against FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

N ILLINOIS (2 - 1) at SAN DIEGO ST (4 - 0) - 9/30/2017, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO ST is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
N ILLINOIS is 53-34 ATS (+15.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 70-41 ATS (+24.9 Units) in road games since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 70-41 ATS (+24.9 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 95-68 ATS (+20.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-0 straight up against N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COLORADO ST (2 - 2) at HAWAII (2 - 2) - 9/30/2017, 11:59 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
HAWAII is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
HAWAII is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
HAWAII is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
HAWAII is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
HAWAII is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
HAWAII is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MEMPHIS (3 - 0) at UCF (2 - 0) - 9/30/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 75-103 ATS (-38.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
MEMPHIS is 15-34 ATS (-22.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Week 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Thursday, September 28


8:00 PM
TEXAS vs. IOWA STATE
Texas is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing Iowa State
Texas is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Iowa State is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Texas
Iowa State is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing Texas




Friday, September 29

7:00 PM
MIAMI vs. DUKE
Miami is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing Duke
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing on the road against Duke
Duke is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Duke is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

8:00 PM
BYU vs. UTAH STATE
BYU is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
BYU is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Utah State
Utah State is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games when playing BYU
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Utah State's last 10 games when playing BYU

8:00 PM
NEBRASKA vs. ILLINOIS
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Nebraska's last 15 games
Nebraska is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Illinois's last 19 games at home
Illinois is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games at home

10:30 PM
SOUTHERN CAL vs. WASHINGTON STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Southern Cal's last 5 games on the road
Southern Cal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington State's last 6 games when playing Southern Cal
Washington State is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing Southern Cal




Saturday, September 30

12:00 PM
SOUTH FLORIDA vs. EAST CAROLINA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of South Florida's last 5 games when playing East Carolina
South Florida is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing East Carolina
East Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
East Carolina is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

12:00 PM
NORTHWESTERN vs. WISCONSIN
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Northwestern's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northwestern's last 5 games when playing Wisconsin
Wisconsin is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Northwestern
Wisconsin is 2-2-2 ATS in its last 6 games

12:00 PM
VANDERBILT vs. FLORIDA
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Vanderbilt's last 12 games when playing Florida
Vanderbilt is 1-21 SU in its last 22 games when playing Florida
Florida is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Vanderbilt
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Florida's last 15 games at home

12:00 PM
RICE vs. PITTSBURGH
Rice is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Rice is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games at home
Pittsburgh is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

12:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. TEMPLE
Houston is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
Houston is 18-5-1 ATS in its last 24 games on the road
Temple is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Temple is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games

12:00 PM
NORTH CAROLINA vs. GEORGIA TECH
North Carolina is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
North Carolina is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games when playing Georgia Tech
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Georgia Tech's last 8 games when playing at home against North Carolina
Georgia Tech is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against North Carolina

12:00 PM
MARYLAND vs. MINNESOTA
Maryland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Maryland's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games

12:00 PM
NEW MEXICO STATE vs. ARKANSAS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Mexico State's last 7 games
New Mexico State is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Arkansas is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Arkansas is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home

12:20 PM
SYRACUSE vs. NORTH CAROLINA STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Syracuse's last 11 games
Syracuse is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
North Carolina State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
North Carolina State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. BOSTON COLLEGE
Central Michigan is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Central Michigan is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Boston College is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston College's last 7 games

3:30 PM
BUFFALO vs. KENT STATE
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kent State's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Kent State is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo

3:30 PM
NAVY vs. TULSA
Navy is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
Navy is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Tulsa's last 23 games at home
Tulsa is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

3:30 PM
INDIANA vs. PENN STATE
Indiana is 1-17 SU in its last 18 games when playing Penn State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Penn State's last 6 games when playing at home against Indiana
Penn State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana

3:30 PM
GEORGIA vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Georgia's last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Georgia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 9 games when playing at home against Georgia
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

3:30 PM
OHIO vs. MASSACHUSETTS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Ohio's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ohio's last 5 games
Massachusetts is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Massachusetts's last 6 games at home

3:30 PM
TEXAS EL PASO vs. ARMY
Texas El Paso is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Texas El Paso is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Army's last 10 games
Army is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

3:30 PM
BAYLOR vs. KANSAS STATE
Baylor is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Kansas State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baylor's last 6 games
Kansas State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baylor
Kansas State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

3:30 PM
FLORIDA STATE vs. WAKE FOREST
Florida State is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Wake Forest
Florida State is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Wake Forest
Wake Forest is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Wake Forest is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Florida State

3:30 PM
MURRAY STATE vs. LOUISVILLE
Murray State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Murray State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Louisville is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Louisville is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

TBA
MEMPHIS vs. GEORGIA STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 7 games on the road
Memphis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Georgia State's last 12 games at home
Georgia State is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games at home

4:00 PM
ARIZONA STATE vs. STANFORD
Arizona State is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Arizona State is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
Stanford is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Stanford's last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona State

4:00 PM
TEXAS STATE vs. WYOMING
Texas State is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games
Texas State is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Wyoming is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
Wyoming is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

4:00 PM
CONNECTICUT vs. SOUTHERN METHODIST
Connecticut is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Connecticut is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Southern Methodist's last 5 games
Southern Methodist is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games at home

4:00 PM
IOWA vs. MICHIGAN STATE
Iowa is 17-6-1 ATS in its last 24 games on the road
Iowa is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Michigan State's last 5 games when playing at home against Iowa
Michigan State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Iowa

4:00 PM
EASTERN MICHIGAN vs. KENTUCKY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Eastern Michigan's last 5 games
Eastern Michigan is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Kentucky is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Kentucky is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home

5:00 PM
MIAMI (OHIO) vs. NOTRE DAME
Miami (Ohio) is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Miami (Ohio) is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Notre Dame's last 6 games at home
Notre Dame is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home

6:00 PM
MISSISSIPPI STATE vs. AUBURN
Mississippi State is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Auburn
Mississippi State is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing Auburn
Auburn is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Auburn is 6-14-2 ATS in its last 22 games at home

6:00 PM
AKRON vs. BOWLING GREEN
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Akron's last 5 games when playing Bowling Green
Akron is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Bowling Green
Bowling Green is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Akron
Bowling Green is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games at home

6:30 PM
MAINE vs. CENTRAL FLORIDA
Maine is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Maine is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Central Florida's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Central Florida's last 10 games

7:00 PM
AIR FORCE vs. NEW MEXICO
Air Force is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Mexico
Air Force is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing New Mexico
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Mexico's last 5 games when playing Air Force
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Mexico's last 7 games when playing at home against Air Force

7:00 PM
NORTH TEXAS vs. SOUTHERN MISS
North Texas is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
North Texas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Southern Miss's last 5 games when playing North Texas
Southern Miss is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

7:00 PM
MARSHALL vs. CINCINNATI
Marshall is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Marshall's last 11 games
Cincinnati is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games
Cincinnati is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games

7:00 PM
CHARLOTTE vs. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Charlotte's last 6 games on the road
Charlotte is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Florida International is 6-11-2 ATS in its last 19 games
Florida International is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home

7:00 PM
SOUTH ALABAMA vs. LOUISIANA TECH
South Alabama is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
South Alabama is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Louisiana Tech's last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Louisiana Tech's last 5 games at home

7:00 PM
MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Middle Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Middle Tennessee is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Florida Atlantic is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Middle Tennessee
Florida Atlantic is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Middle Tennessee

7:00 PM
BALL STATE vs. WESTERN MICHIGAN
Ball State is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ball State's last 6 games on the road
Western Michigan is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Ball State
Western Michigan is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Ball State

7:00 PM
COASTAL CAROLINA vs. LOUISIANA-MONROE
Coastal Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Coastal Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Louisiana-Monroe's last 10 games at home
Louisiana-Monroe is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

7:00 PM
MEMPHIS vs. CENTRAL FLORIDA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 7 games on the road
Memphis is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Central Florida's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Central Florida's last 10 games

7:00 PM
TROY vs. LSU
Troy is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Troy is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
LSU is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LSU is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

7:30 PM
OHIO STATE vs. RUTGERS
Ohio State is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Ohio State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Rutgers is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home
Rutgers is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games

7:30 PM
SOUTH CAROLINA vs. TEXAS A&M
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of South Carolina's last 8 games on the road
South Carolina is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Texas A&M is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Texas A&M is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home

8:00 PM
CLEMSON vs. VIRGINIA TECH
Clemson is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Virginia Tech
Clemson is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Virginia Tech
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Virginia Tech's last 5 games when playing at home against Clemson
Virginia Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

8:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. OREGON STATE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games when playing Oregon State
Washington is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Oregon State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oregon State's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oregon State's last 8 games when playing Washington

8:00 PM
OKLAHOMA STATE vs. TEXAS TECH
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma State's last 5 games when playing Texas Tech
Oklahoma State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Texas Tech
Texas Tech is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Texas Tech is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Oklahoma State

9:00 PM
MISSISSIPPI vs. ALABAMA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Mississippi's last 9 games when playing Alabama
Mississippi is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing Alabama
Alabama is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Mississippi
Alabama is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing Mississippi

10:00 PM
NEVADA vs. FRESNO STATE
Nevada is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Nevada is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games
Fresno State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Nevada
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Fresno State's last 5 games when playing at home against Nevada

10:30 PM
SAN JOSE STATE vs. UNLV
San Jose State is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
San Jose State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
UNLV is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Jose State
UNLV is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Jose State

10:30 PM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. SAN DIEGO STATE
Northern Illinois is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Northern Illinois is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Diego State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of San Diego State's last 21 games at home

10:30 PM
COLORADO vs. UCLA
Colorado is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing UCLA
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Colorado's last 15 games on the road
UCLA is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
UCLA is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Colorado

10:30 PM
CALIFORNIA vs. OREGON
California is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Oregon
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of California's last 5 games when playing on the road against Oregon
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oregon's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oregon's last 6 games

12:00 AM
COLORADO STATE vs. HAWAII
Colorado State is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado State's last 5 games on the road
Hawaii is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Hawaii is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Colorado State

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 4


Thursday’s game
Texas is 11-2 in its last 13 games with Iowa State, but covered only one of last four meetings; Longhorns are 5-1 in last six visits to Ames, losing 24-0 in last trip here, in ’15. Longhorns lost last game in OT at USC two weeks ago; they gave up a combined 950 yards in losses to USC, Maryland- they crushed San Jose St 56-0 in between. Cyclones are 5-1 as a home underdog under Campbell; they covered only home game, this year, losing 44-41 at home to rival Iowa (+3.5) two weeks ago. Iowa State scored 41 points in splitting its two I-A games this season.


Friday’s games
Duke is 4-0 with wins over Northwestern/UNC; Blue Devils are allowing 65.7 rushing yards/game; last 4+ years, they’re 5-1 as a home underdog. First road game for Miami team that had two weeks off (hurricane) before whacking Toledo 52-30 LW; Rockets threw for 344 yards against the ‘canes, Miami is 10-3 in last 13 games as a road favorite, 4-1 under coach Richt. Duke is 1-11 in its last 12 games with Miami, losing last three by 12-3-19 points. Underdogs are 6-5 vs spread in last 11 series games, 3-3 in games played here.


Natives are restless in Lincoln after Nebraska’s 2-2 start, which includes home loss to Northern Illinois. Cornhuskers lost only road game 42-35 at Oregon (trailed 42-14 at half); they’re 5-7 in last 12 games as a road favorite, 2-3 under Riley. Nebraska is 3-1 vs Illinois in Big 14 play; home side won all four games, covered three of them. Illini are 2-6 in last eight games as a home underdog, 1-4 under Smith; they’re 2-1 this season, winning couple of home games before getting drilled 47-23 at USF last week. Illinois is 3-8 in last 11 games as single digit dog.


BYU lost its last three games by combined score of 86-19; now they step down in class to take on Utah State club they’ve beaten 13 of last 15 meetings, covering three of last four- they’re 1-3 vs spread in last four series games as a single digit favorite. Cougars won 51-28/31-14 in last two visits to Logan. Utah State split its first four games, three of which were on road; they allowed 234-291 rushing yards in its losses, at Wisconsin/Wake Forest. Aggies are 1-4 as a home underdog under Wells. Mountain West non-conference underdogs are 13-10 vs spread, 2-2 at home.


Washington State doesn’t get on national TV a lot; this is a big deal for them, just another day on the beach for USC, which scored 37 pts/game in its 4-0 start, winning first road game 30-20 at Cal LW. Teams didn’t play last two years; Trojans won last five visits to Pullman (4-1 vs spread) but did lost at home to Wazzu in 2013. Coogs are 4-0 this year but have’t been on road yet; they were down 31-10 with 9:00 to play vs Boise State, somehow won that game. Wazzu is 5-7 as a home underdog under Leach. USC is 4-2 in last six games as a road favorite.

 

[CNOTES]

Big 12 Report - Week 5
September 27, 2017



2017 BIG 12 STANDINGS


Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under


Baylor 0-4 0-1 1-3 2-2


Iowa State 2-1 0-0 3-0 2-1


Kansas 1-3 0-1 1-3 4-0


Kansas State 2-1 0-0 2-1 2-1


Oklahoma 4-0 1-0 3-1 3-1


Oklahoma State 3-1 0-1 3-1 3-1


Texas 1-2 0-0 2-1 1-2


Texas Christian 4-0 1-0 2-2 2-2


Texas Tech 3-0 0-0 3-0 1-2


West Virginia 3-1 1-0 2-2 3-0-1



Texas at Iowa State (Thu. - ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)
The Longhorns and Cyclones kick off the fifth weekend of college football in Ames in the standalone FBS game on Thursday night. Texas lost last time out at Southern California back on Sept. 16, but they still have to feel good about themselves after almost winning at the L.A. Coliseum against a Top 5 team. They ended up falling 27-24 in overtime, but it was a confidence builder. Iowa State hasn't been lacking in confidence, especially on offense. They're averageing 41.3 PPG through three games, scoring 42 in their opener with Northern Iowa, 41 in their rivalry game loss to Iowa and 41 in a win against Akron on Sept. 16. The defense has allowed 27.3 PPG, so there is room for improvement there.

The Cyclones have posted a perfect 3-0 ATS mark through three outings, with the 'over' cashing in their first two. The Longhorns have cashed each of their psat two outings with the 'under' hitting in each performance. Texas has been a bit hard to figure, as they were topped 51-41 against Maryland in their opener at home, they blasted San Jose State 56-0 in a game that wasn't much of a test, and then the aforementioned USC game. Which Longhorns team will show up? Iowa State is 7-1 ATS over their past eight home games, while Texas is 4-1 ATS in their past five against winning teams. The home team has cashed in four of the past five in this series.

Baylor at Kansas State (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)
So close, but no cigar for Baylor last weekend against Oklahoma. The Bears couldn't avoid an 0-4 SU start, but they were able to finally pick up their first cover of the season in a near monumental upset. At the very least, if the Bears were lacking confidence after shocking losses to FCS Liberty and Texas-San Antonio, as well as a not as shocking loss at Duke, they certainly have a little mojo back after taking the Sooners to the brink. K-State is champing at the bit after a 14-7 loss two weeks ago at Vanderbilt, a stunning lack of offense after posting a pair of 55-point performances against FCS Central Arkansas and Charlotte. Of course, those teams do not have a nasty defense like Vandy.


The Bears roll into Manhattan with a 1-7 ATS mark over their past eight games, and they're 3-8 ATS in their past 11 overall. Baylor is also 2-5 ATS in the past seven inside the Big 12. The Wildcats have rattled off covers in four of their past five overall, and they're 6-2 ATS over their past eight after failing to cover in their last outing. They also own an impressive 45-22-1 ATS across their past 68 league games. The underdog has hit in six of the past seven meetings, with the home team 5-1 ATS across the past six in this series. Baylor is 0-4 ATS in their past four tries at K-State, while going 2-6 ATS in the past eight meetings overall.


Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (FOX, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Oklahoma State looked like a potential playoff contender, and they still might be. But that's why rankings are meaningless in September, as they were housed by Texas Christian last week in Stillwater. OK State is looking to bounce back after a 44-31 setback, and it doesn't get easier on the road against a high-octane Texas Tech team. The Red Raiders have passed a couple of tests in a row, pushing aside Arizona State by a 52-45 score, and then they spoiled Houston's long home win streak with a 27-24 win on the road last week. The Red Raiders have opened the season with a 3-0 ATS mark. Oklahoma State is 6-1 ATS over their psat seven road games, 5-2 ATS in their past seven against winning teams and, perhaps more importantly, 4-0 ATS in their past four trips to Lubbock, and 9-3 ATS in the past 12 against TTU. The road team has cashed in four straight in the series, and the 'over' is 5-0 in the past five meetings.


Bye Weeks
Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Christian, West Virginia

 

[CNOTES]

UCLA's defense tries to correct shocking struggles
September 27, 2017


LOS ANGELES (AP) UCLA is searching for equilibrium between its defense and offense.


The Bruins have an offense as good as any in college football, ranking in the top 10 in points per game, yards per game and yards per play. They have a defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in points per game, yards per game and yards per play.


The offensive production isn't a surprise, not with the presence of quarterback Josh Rosen, but the defensive breakdowns are an absolutely shock to a program that has prided itself on its play on that side of the ball under head coach Jim Mora.


''Did I see it? No, I didn't see it coming like that,'' defensive coordinator Tom Bradley said.


Mora made his reputation as a defensive coach in the NFL. Bradley oversaw some of the best defenses in college football history at Penn State. The defensive line and secondary were regarded as the strongest and deepest positions on the team. Five-star defensive end Jaelan Phillips and five-star cornerback Darnay Holmes were the centerpieces of another strong recruiting class.


Yet, UCLA is allowing 43.3 points and 524.8 yards per game. The run defense is the worst in the FBS, allowing 307.5 yards per game, and still has to face a daunting gauntlet of top Pac-12 running backs, including Phillip Lindsay of Colorado on Saturday.


Players settling into new roles and injuries have played a part, but Bradley has attributed the majority of the problems to poor fundamentals.


''I think we're just going through some growing pains. I know we're struggling a little bit, too, but I really think we're going to get better,'' Bradley said. ''I think it comes down to once again a lot of our big plays are we're not so much out of position as we are missing tackles and things of that nature. But anytime you go through this it's one thing here, one thing there. It's just time for everybody to get on the same page and play the same way.''


UCLA reinstated tackling drills in practice this week in hopes of addressing some of those struggles. The work, primarily during position drills but also after practice as a handful of players drove their shoulders into tackling sleds to push them up and down the field, has two goals.


The first is to address the breakdowns in the open field that have been evident since Texas A&M built a 44-10 lead in the third quarter of the season opener, only for Rosen to rally the team for a 45-44 win. UCLA has allowed 28 explosive runs, which Bradley defines as carries of 10 or more yards, and 17 explosive passes of at least 15 yards.


The second is to address the spate of targeting penalties against UCLA. Safety Adarius Pickett became the third UCLA defender ejected for targeting in as many games on a helmet-to-helmet hit to Stanford tight end Drew Schultz.


The other issues hindering UCLA seem to be more mental than physical.


Defensive lineman Boss Tagaloa said the defense's effort waned in the second half as the Cardinal scored touchdowns on all five possessions.


Bradley said players have frequently been out of position because of a lack of faith that teammates will be in the right position.


''Don't ad-lib because you think he's not going to be there,'' Bradley said.


Getting back to basics has been Bradley's rallying cry this week, and Tagaloa believes the defense will do just that to pick up their end of the bargain with the suddenly dominant offense.


''Coming back after a game like last week, the last two weeks, I feel like we're more motivated just to work harder,'' Tagaloa said. ''We know what we have to do and I think we're going to get it done.''

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Dunkel


Week 5


Thursday, September 28

Texas @ Iowa State


Game 103-104
September 28, 2017 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Texas
99.006
Iowa State
89.584
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Texas
by 9 1/2
69
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Texas
by 4
62 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Texas
(-4); Over


NC Central @ Florida A&M


Game 301-302
September 28, 2017 @ 7:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
NC Central
58.266
Florida A&M
40.906
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NC Central
by 17 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NC Central
by 9
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NC Central
(-9); Under




Friday, September 29

Miami-FL @ Duke


Game 105-106
September 29, 2017 @ 7:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Miami-FL
104.327
Duke
95.146
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami-FL
by 9
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami-FL
by 6
55 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami-FL
(-6); Over


Nebraska @ Illinois


Game 107-108
September 29, 2017 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Nebraska
90.535
Illinois
77.464
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Nebraska
by 13
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Nebraska
by 6
46
Dunkel Pick:
Nebraska
(-6); Under


Brigham Young @ Utah State


Game 109-110
September 29, 2017 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Brigham Young
86.223
Utah State
81.683
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Brigham Young
by 4 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Brigham Young
by 1 1/2
46
Dunkel Pick:
Brigham Young
(-1 1/2); Under


USC @ Washington St


Game 111-112
September 29, 2017 @ 10:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
USC
108.283
Washington St
100.226
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
USC
by 8
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
USC
by 3 1/2
65 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
USC
(-3 1/2); Under


Dartmouth @ Penn


Game 303-304
September 29, 2017 @ 7:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Dartmouth
56.129
Penn
67.135
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Penn
by 11
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Penn
by 7
51
Dunkel Pick:
Penn
(-7); Under


Alcorn State @ Texas Southern


Game 305-306
September 29, 2017 @ 9:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Alcorn State
55.412
Texas Southern
33.717
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Alcorn State
by 21 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Alcorn State
by 19 1/2
53
Dunkel Pick:
Alcorn State
(-19 1/2); Under

 

[CNOTES]

Texas at Iowa State
September 26, 2017

The Big XII is in the spotlight Thursday night, following a top 10 program from the conference falling from the ranks of the undefeated last weekend. Both Texas and Iowa State have more modest goals in the rebuilding process after bowl absences the past two seasons. The victor this week will be in a much stronger position to reach the postseason through the remaining conference slate.


Matchup: Texas Longhorns at Iowa State Cyclones
Venue: At Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 28, 7:00 PM ET ESPN
Line: Texas -6½, Over/Under 63½
Last Meeting: 2016, at Texas (-14) 27, Iowa State 6


The contrast in national presence for Big XII rivals Texas and Iowa State couldn’t be more severe with Texas listed as second nationally in total revenue, just short of 200 million dollars while Iowa State pulled in (and spent) 78 million in the 2015-16 financial calendar. The results the past two seasons haven’t been too far apart however with back-to-back losing Big XII seasons and bowl game absences for both programs.


There is optimism on both campuses this season with regards to the 2017 football seasons with expectations of improvement and bowl bids very possible. Late in the 2015 season Iowa State won 24-0 in the last meeting hosting Texas but it wasn’t enough to save Paul Rhoads who was released after seven seasons in Ames, getting the team to three bowl games but ultimately unable to sustain a run of respectable play.


Ahead of last season Iowa State hired Matt Campbell after four successful seasons at Toledo, ironically a team that beat Iowa State in the 2015 regular season. Campbell is one of the younger coaches at the FBS level and he brought a lot of his staff from Toledo with him. Last season’s transition featured some struggles, starting with a loss to FCS Northern Iowa and an embarrassing 42-3 defeat vs. rival Iowa. Ultimately the Cyclones finished 3-9 to match the team’s 2015 record but there were respectable late season showings with two Big XII wins and several other narrow defeats vs. quality teams including close calls at home vs. ranked Baylor and Oklahoma teams.


This year’s team avenged the loss from last season to Northern Iowa in the opener, a quality FCS program and then took rival Iowa to overtime. Iowa State also handled Akron in its first road test to sit at 2-1 heading into a difficult Big XII schedule. Iowa State plays five road games in conference play and outside of a mid-October home game with Kansas, this is one of the more favorable home dates with TCU and Oklahoma State also visiting Ames as bowl hopes for the Cyclones might hinge on getting this Thursday night upset.


Iowa State used two quarterbacks substantially last season but this season but junior Jacob Park has held the position with strong numbers, throwing for over 900 yards in three games with eight touchdowns as the offense is starting to resemble the productive attacks Campbell led in the MAC. David Montgomery has been a bright spot in the backfield with 321 yards rushing on 5.7 yards per carry as the offense has featured decent balance, though certainly with a lean to towards preferring to throw.


The issues for Iowa State remain on defense with Campbell’s 2016 team showing no improvement over the marginal 2015 numbers and this year’s team is only marginally ahead of last season’s pace with the toughest games still to come. Iowa State has allowed 402 yards per game with particular vulnerability in the air, currently 112th nationally allowing nearly 300 passing yards per game.


Tom Herman was a high profile hire for Texas in the offseason with Texas failing to make a bowl game the past two seasons under Charlie Strong. Herman went 22-4 in two seasons at Houston after coaching under Urban Meyer at Ohio State for three years. Herman was actually the Iowa State offensive coordinator for the first three seasons under Paul Rhoads here at Iowa State from 2009-2011. In three games at Texas he is already halfway to the loss count he had in two seasons in Houston.


Texas expected instant results from Herman with a wealth of returning talent on the roster but the 1-2 start has featured encouraging performances since a surprising opening week loss to Maryland. Texas dominated San Jose State in a shutout win and then in the last game took a highly regarded USC team to double-overtime, even playing without quarterback Shane Buechele.


While that defeat earned some respect for Herman’s transition and bolstered his big game reputation, the reality is that Texas has little margin for error remaining on the season. After this game Texas will in succession face three of the top contenders in the conference with games against Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State to start October as a 2-5 record wouldn’t be unrealistic heading into the final five games of the season.


Buechele’s status isn’t clear for Thursday night. He returned to practice this week but is still limited. Freshman backup quarterback Sam Ehlinger has had mixed results with three touchdown passes but also two interceptions and a low completion rate. The running game has been marginal for the Longhorns in trying to replace 2,000-yard rusher D’Onta Foreman as Texas has gained 4.6 yards per rush with the best results coming from junior Chris Warren III. Sophomore wide receiver Collin Johnson has been the big play threat in the offense with 366 yards on only 16 catches. The kicking game has been an issue for Texas with only one made field goal in four attempts.


The numbers for the Texas defense are slightly better than for Iowa State, particularly against the pass and that is even with facing preseason Heisman Trophy favorite Sam Darnold who Texas intercepted twice in the last game, including getting a return touchdown. Texas has scored three interception return touchdowns plus a blocked field goal return touchdown this season and one big play could prove to be the difference in this type of game.

Last Season: A week after Texas had lost a tough 45-40 game with Oklahoma they looked like an upset risk hosting Iowa State riding a three-game losing streak. A tight first half broke open in the third quarter as Texas took turned a 3-6 deficit into a 24-6 edge, eventually winning 27-6 as a two-touchdown home favorite. The yardage results were even more lopsided with a 505-280 edge in one of the best performances of the season for the Texas defense. Two years ago Iowa State won 24-0 hosting Texas as a slight home underdog, the final win for Rhoads with the program.

Historical Trends:


-- Texas is 11-2 S/U but 6-7 ATS in this series since 1998, with Iowa State covering in three in a row until last season.


-- Texas is on a 16-11 ATS run as a road favorite since 2008 though 1-4 ATS in that role the past two seasons.


-- Iowa State is 7-1 ATS in the last eight instances as a home underdog though producing only two S/U upsets in that run.


-- Iowa State is 11-4 ATS overall at home the past two+ seasons, though 6-9 S/U.


-- In four seasons at Toledo, Campbell held a 19-5 S/U record at home, going 12-10-2 ATS.


-- Herman went 6-4 S/U and ATS in road games in his two seasons at Houston.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Long Sheet


Thursday, September 28


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TEXAS (1 - 2) at IOWA ST (2 - 1) - 9/28/2017, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
IOWA ST is 1-1 against the spread versus TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
IOWA ST is 1-1 straight up against TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NCAAF


Week 4


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Thursday, September 28


8:00 PM
TEXAS vs. IOWA STATE
Texas is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing Iowa State
Texas is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Iowa State is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Texas
Iowa State is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing Texas




---------------------------------


NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 4


Thursday’s game
Texas is 11-2 in its last 13 games with Iowa State, but covered only one of last four meetings; Longhorns are 5-1 in last six visits to Ames, losing 24-0 in last trip here, in ’15. Longhorns lost last game in OT at USC two weeks ago; they gave up a combined 950 yards in losses to USC, Maryland- they crushed San Jose St 56-0 in between. Cyclones are 5-1 as a home underdog under Campbell; they covered only home game, this year, losing 44-41 at home to rival Iowa (+3.5) two weeks ago. Iowa State scored 41 points in splitting its two I-A games this season.


--------------------------------


NCAAF
Dunkel


Week 5


Thursday, September 28


Texas @ Iowa State


Game 103-104
September 28, 2017 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Texas
99.006
Iowa State
89.584
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Texas
by 9 1/2
69
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Texas
by 4
62 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Texas
(-4); Over