Cnotes 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[CNOTES]

Cards QB Palmer likely 'out' Thursday
October 5, 2016


One of the true negatives of Thursday night games is seeing key players, often stars, unable to participate because of the short turnaround.


That looks like the case this week for the Arizona Cardinals, whose quarterback, Carson Palmer, has been in the NFL's concussion protocol.


And with the Cardinals at 1-3, just like their opponent, San Francisco, this is no time to be short-handed. Particularly at that position.


Cardinals coach Bruce Arians has been somewhat optimistic about Palmer's availability. He even checked with Palmer's wife for an evaluation.


''Well, you're not going to get the real truth from a football player,'' Arians says. ''He's always going to tell you he's ready and he's OK. I was counting on her to tell me what it was really like.''


Not that Shaelyn Palmer is a doctor. So it easily could be Drew Stanton behind center.


The 49ers have dropped three straight since an opening victory, but they will have their regular signal caller in Blaine Gabbert. Though Gabbert hardly has been a sensation for San Francisco.


''Short week or not, you can't skip any part of your normal preparation,'' Gabbert said. ''If anything, you have to do more, especially from the physical aspect to get your body feeling the way it should by Sunday, which happens to be Thursday this week. And then from a mental aspect ... it's just everything is sped up.''


The disappointing Cardinals (No. 20 Arizona, AP Pro32) are 4-point favorites over the host Niners (No. 31, AP Pro32).


CARDINALS, 24-16


KNOCKOUT LEAGUE TIP


The Bengals came through for us last week, and we will remain in the Buckeye state this time. No, we're not taking the Browns. Tom Brady and the PATRIOTS are an obvious choice.


No. 3 New England (minus 10) at No. 32 Cleveland

What's the over/under on how many TDs Brady throws - in the first half?


BEST BET: PATRIOTS, 48-13


No. 29 Tennessee (plus 4) at No. 26 Miami


Dolphins are well rested. That might be only thing they have going right now.


UPSET SPECIAL: TITANS, 22-20


No. 13 Houston (plus 4 1-2) at No. 2 Minnesota


Another chance for Texans to prove themselves against quality competition? Nope.


VIKINGS, 20-13


No. 21 New York Jets (plus 10) at No. 6 Pittsburgh


Right now, Steelers can manhandle anybody.


STEELERS, 30-17


No. 19 Washington (plus 5) at No. 10 Baltimore


Redskins have won two straight without being very impressive.


RAVENS, 21-20


No. 30 Chicago (plus 6) at No. 28 Indianapolis


Colts' experiment of no bye after London game works. Barely.


COLTS, 27-23


No. 4 Philadelphia (minus 3) at No. 27 Detroit


This one scares us. Are Eagles ready to be 4-0? Don't think so.

LIONS, 28-27


No. 8 Atlanta (plus 6) at No. 1 Denver


This one doesn't scare us, but Broncos' defense does.


BRONCOS, 24-13


No. 11 Cincinnati (pick-em) at No. 12 Dallas


Finally, Dak Prescott faces a good defense. Not a good thing for Dallas.


BENGALS, 28-14


No. 25 San Diego (plus 3) at No. 9 Oakland


Chargers are mastering close defeats. Here's another.


RAIDERS, 35-31


No. 17 (tie) Buffalo (plus 2 1-2) at No. 14 Los Angeles


Both teams have made a nice turnaround. Rams grab NFC West lead.


RAMS, 23-21


No. 17 (tie) New York Giants (plus 6 1-2) at No. 7 Green Bay


Until Giants get healthy in secondary, they are doomed against top QBs.


PACKERS, 30-20


No. 24 Tampa Bay (OFF) at No. 16 Carolina


No line because of Cam Newton's uncertain status. Panthers win with or without him.


PANTHERS, 23-21


---


This Week: Against spread (8-7). Straight up8-7)


Season Totals: Against spread (28-32-2). Straight up: (36-26)


Best Bet: 1-3 against spread, 2-2 straight up.


Upset special: 2-2 against spread, 2-2 straight up.

 

[CNOTES]

Underdogs to Watch - Week 5
October 5, 2016


Week 4 wasn't as good for underdogs as Week 3 was, but last week's feature had isolated the Saints (+165 on ML) and Giants (+185 on ML) and thanks to a tremendous fourth quarter comeback, New Orleans was able to get us to the window.


The Saints weren't the only one on the list of sizeable underdogs to win outright as Buffalo and LA got there as well, making the final result 3-for-7 for these underdogs on the ML.


That's not too bad considering all of them were listed at +165 or higher to win outright, and a $100 bet on all seven of those teams came out -$60 in the end. That's why it's critical to be selective with these underdogs when considering ML wagers and this week we've got six more to break down.


Sportsbook.ag Week 5 Underdogs that Qualify


Houston (+7); ML (+230)
Cleveland (+11); ML (+500)
New York Jets (+7); ML (+265)
Chicago (+4.5); ML (+185)
Atlanta (+6); ML (+200)
New York Giants (+7.5); ML (+275)


Readers of this weekly piece shouldn't be surprised to see Cleveland on this list once again as they'll be on here the majority of the year. The Browns are at home and welcome Tom Brady to town as the Patriots get their future Hall-of-Famer back at QB. Not much more than that needs to be said as to why a Browns ML bet is not an option again this week. The rest of the teams on that list do offer some intriguing matchups though, so let's go through them.


Chicago could definitely be considered as they are in Indianapolis to take on the struggling Colts who for some reason did not get a bye week after going to London. The Colts are 1-3 and coach Chuck Pagano's seat is getting hotter by the day. Yet, the Bears still aren't very good overall and we could see a sense of urgency from Indy this week that we've yet to see in 2016. Chicago's win last week took some of the value out of this potential play and I'm not sure you can trust the Bears on the road this week in a non-conference game.


Houston (+230) and Atlanta (+200) have the toughest tests in Week 5 as they are both on the road to take on undefeated Minnesota and Denver respectively. Both of those teams have tremendous defenses and will garner much respect from bettors. I'm not sure either road dog here warrants a strong ML play here, but Atlanta does have the best offense in the league right now and it will be interesting to see if they can keep those numbers up against the Broncos. If they can, the Falcons could go into Mile High and give Denver their first loss in 11+ months and are definitely the better option to consider.


That leaves us with the two New York teams as road underdogs and I do believe that at least one of them gets the job done.


The Jets (+265) are in Pittsburgh to take on a Steelers team that completely dismantled KC on SNF and looked awesome doing it. Pittsburgh has already received a lot of love from bettors this week in part because of that dominant showing, but also because the Jets offense appears to be a complete mess right now with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing nine interceptions the last two weeks. Nobody wants anything to do with the Jets right now from a betting perspective and quite often those are the teams that can be the most dangerous. Things can only go up for Fitzpatrick and that offense, and New York's defense is more than capable of keeping the Steelers attack in check. Had the Jets not looked so bad the last two weeks we would have likely seen this line a little lower, so there is value in the number right now if you believe the Jets can bounce back in this spot.


The Giants (+275) are on the road in Green Bay on SNF as they get a prime time game for the second week in a row. They didn't do much offensively either last week in their loss to Minnesota, and now face a Packers team coming off the bye.


But I wouldn't be so quick to right off the Giants yet and all their squabbles about Odell Beckham being a distraction etc, because this team can score in bunches when they are able to get it rolling and Green Bay's defense hasn't exactly been spectacular this season. QB Eli Manning needs to be more decisive with his decision making and you know he'll love to play his best in the matchup vs. Aaron Rodgers. Going against a team off a bye week is a little concerning, but often times the bye week this early in the year for squads doesn't have the same positive effect that it does later in the year when the grind has really gotten to guys.

 

[CNOTES]

TNF - Cardinals at 49ers
October 6, 2016



Arizona (-3.5, 42) at San Francisco, 8:25 pm ET, CBS/NFLN


News that Carson Palmer didn’t make the trip to Santa Clara hasn't affected this number at all, which tells you that the public perception that the Cardinals must win this game prevails over anything else. Despite an unstable situation at quarterback and injuries in the secondary, books are banking on the public riding the road favorite and haven't moved off of 3.5.

Chris Johnson was placed on IR earlier in the week, but the ground game is in good hands with the versatile David Johnson likely to be featured heavily to take pressure off Drew Stanton. He's quickly emerged as one of the NFL's top receiving threats out of the backfield and is an explosive, elusive playmaker whose success in this game should determine whether Arizona is successful in getting back to .500.


The 49ers will be playing their first game without top LB NaVorro Bowman, who ruptured his left Achilles tendon in the third quarter of the 24-17 loss to Dallas and is done for the season.


The Cardinals have won three of four in this series, winning last year’s meetings by a combined score of 66-20.

Arizona Cardinals
Season win total: 10 (Over -170, Under -150)
Odds to win NFC West: 7/5 to 7/2
Odds to win NFC: 5/1 to 8/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 10/1 to 16/1

San Francisco 49ers
Season win total: 5.5 (Over +110, Under -130)
Odds to win NFC West: 30/1 to 100/1
Odds to win NFC: 30/1 to 1000/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 60/1 to 2000/1

LINE MOVEMENT

While both teams are 1-3 and playing for the right to stay out of the NFC West basement, the latest update put out by the WestgateLV SuperBook in adjusting its conference and Super Bowl futures tells you just how differently these teams are regarded. The Cardinals simply haven't lost much steam despite their unexpected poor start because they should rebound here and start getting their act together. Ideally. The Niners just lost their top defensive player and have failed to cover in three in a row, so apparently the books don't see a Blaine Gabbert-led resurgence.


DREW BELIEVER


Stanton will make his first start since Dec. 2014. Arizona is 12-5 in games in which he’s appeared in, but he looked dreadful with a chance to impact Sunday’s 17-13 loss to the Rams, throwing two interceptions while finishing 4-for-11. In his defense, L.A. knew he was passing most downs, came after him relentlessly and had guys in their secondary make plays, but Stanton’s performance certainly didn’t help anyone associated with the Cards at ease coming into this one. The fact this will be his ninth start with the Cards and 12th as an NFL quarterback is reassuring, if only because backup Zac Dysert has never thrown a regular-season pass.


NO NAVORRO, NO PROBLEM?


Bowman led the NFL with 154 tackles in 2016 and will be difficult to replace, although Aaron Lynch returning from a four-game suspension cushions the blow. Although there's no replacing Bowman's presence, the Niners due have a capable backup in Nick Bellore, who has made an impact on special teams. In the short-term, it might have more impact on San Francisco that rookie DE DeForest Buckner (foot) is out, since he's become an impact player immediately. NT Glenn Dorsey is questionable with a knee injury, but should play. The same goes for DE Aric Armstead (shoulder). Key safety Jimmie Ward won’t play, so a defense that has been the team’s strength has major concerns.


RECENT MEETINGS (Arizona 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS last five; UNDER 3-2)


11/29/15 Arizona 19-13 at San Francisco (AZ -7.5, 45)
9/27/15 Arizona 47-7 vs. San Francisco (AZ -7, 45.5)
12/28/14 San Francisco 20-17 vs. Arizona (SF -6, 38)
9/21/14 Arizona 23-14 vs. San Francisco (SF -3, 41)
12/29/13 San Francisco 23-20 at Arizona (AZ -3, 41)


PROPS

Of the props available below at Sportsbook.ag, I'm most partial to going over on Danny Amendola receptions and Lamar Miller rushing yards. Fading Watt tackles on the premise that the Patriots will look to run plays away from him is a solid move too.


Blaine Gabbert pass attempts 40: (+300 over)
Gabbert interceptions 1.5: (+200 over)
Gabbert passing yards 250: (+175 over)
Carlos Hyde rushing yards 100: (+300 over)
Hyde rushing attempts 22: (+225 over)
David Johnson rushing yards 125: (+275 over)
David Johnson rushing attempts 23: (+225 over)
Drew Stanton passing yards 300: (+275 over)
Larry Fitzgerald receiving yards 100: (+175 over)
Fitzgerald receptions 8 or more: (+130)
First-half points: Cardinals 12.5, 49ers 9.5 (-115 o/u)
Total points: Cardinals 23, 49ers 19 (-120/-115 over, -110/-115 under)
Longest TD 40.5 yds: (-115 o/u)


CARDINALS AS A ROAD FAVORITE


Arizona is 0-1 in this situation after losing at Buffalo 11 days ago, faltering 33-18 as a 4.5-point chalk. They were 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) in this role last season, losing only at Pittsburgh.


49ERS AS A HOME DOG


After opening the season with an upset of L.A at home, the Niners lost in this role against Dallas last week. San Francisco was 4-4 SU (5-3 ATS) as a home dog in '15, pulling off upsets against the Vikings, Ravens, Packers and Rams.

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED


The WestgateLV Superbook sent out its advance lines for next week on Wednesday and has the 49ers as a 7-point road underdog as they fly cross-country to Buffalo. The Cardinals host the Jets on Monday night and are listed as a 6.5-point favorite with the expectation that Palmer will clear concussion protocol by then.

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack


Six more NFL trends to ponder, with Week 5 coming up……..


— Baltimore is 2-12-2 in last 16 games as a favorite.


— Bengals are 30-18-5 in last 43 games against NFC teams.


— Dolphins are 2-9 vs spread in their last 11 games.


— Carolina is 11-3 in last 14 games as a divisional home favorite.


— Steelers covered seven of their last nine games.


— Falcons covered eight of last nine as an underdog.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Thursday, October 6


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night NFL Betting Preview: Cardinals at 49ers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Larry Fitzgerald will have to step up big time, if the Cardinals want to avoid a 1-4 start.


Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (+3.5, 42)


The Arizona Cardinals have been plagued by turnovers of late and the trendy preseason Super Bowl pick temporarily are faced with turning over the keys to backup quarterback Drew Stanton on Thursday when they visit the San Francisco 49ers. Veteran Carson Palmer did not travel with the team to California due to a concussion, leaving Stanton to be left looking to conjure the magic that saw him pull a 5-3 mark out of his hat during a stint in 2014.


Stanton struggled mightily in taking over for the concussed Palmer on Sunday, completing just 4-of-11 passes in a 17-13 setback to Los Angeles and his two interceptions upped Arizona's turnover total to nine during its two-game skid. "I'll say this, I never envisioned this type of start," Cardinals general manager Steve Keim told Arizona Sports 98.7 FM. "I don't know that anybody -- fans or anybody in the organization -- would have envisioned this." The 49ers had no such issue with the Rams with a 28-0 season-opening shellacking, but the defense of Chip Kelly's club summarily has been shredded to the tune of 458.3 yards and 35.7 points per contest during its three-game losing streak. To add injury to insult, four-time NFL All-Pro linebacker NaVorro Bowman sustained a torn left Achilles in Sunday's 24-17 setback to Dallas and will miss the rest of the season.


TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.


LINE HISTORY: The Cardinals opened this game as 2.5-point road faves and were bet as high as -4, but then the news came out Palmer would miss the game, the line dropped back to Cardinals -3.5. The total has also dropped with Stanton taking the snaps for Palmer, going from 43.5 to 43, to the current number of 42. Check out the complete line history here.


POWER RANKINGS: Cardinals (-1) - 49ers (+6) + home field (-3) = 49ers +4


INJURY REPORT:


Cardinals - QB C. Palmer (Out Thursday, concussion), T D. Humphries (probable Thursday, ankle), TE D. Fells (questionable Thursday, shoulder), DT E. Stinson (questionable Thursday, toe), CB J. Bethel (questionable Thursday, foot), DT J. Mauro (questionable, chest), DT F. Rucker (questionable Thursday, knee), DT R. Nkemdiche (questionable Thursday, ankle).


49ers - TE V. McDonald (probable Thursday, hip), DL A. Armstead (probable Thursday, shoulder), CB M. Cromartie (probable Thursday, ankle), G Z. Beadles (questionable Thursday, ankle), CB C. Davis (questionable Thursday, quadricep), WR J. Kerley (questionable Thursday, ankle), DL G. dorsey (questionable Thursday, knee), DB J. Ward (questionable Thursday, quadricep), Dl D. Buckner (doubtful Thursday, foot). LB N. Bowman (out for season, Achilles).


WEATHER REPORT: It is shaping up to be a beautiful night for football in Santa Clara. The forecast is calling for clear skies with temperatures in the high 60's for the game. There is also going to be a six to 11 mile per hour wind gusting towards the southern endzone.


WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians has dropped back-to-back games on only two occasions in his NFL career with Arizona and as a result finds his team languishing in a tie for last place in he NFC West division along with the 49ers. The key to this contest is the concussion protocol in which QB Carson Palmer is under. With him they don’t figure to drop three straight games. Without him they’ve got a headache - pun intended. The dataabse tells us Frisco is 1-5 ATS on Thursdays, but 'Zona is 0-8 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back division games."


WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Initial money came in on Arizona, driving the spread up to -4.5, but that's starting to look more and more like a ploy play. We're back down to -3, and my guess is that this could end up closing lower than that. Currently, the money favors Arizona 60-40 while the bets are 75-25 on the road squad."


ABOUT THE CARDINALS (1-3, 1-3 ATS, 1-3 O/U): David Johnson (64 carries, 300 yards, three TDs) leads the NFL with 510 yards from scrimmage and has recorded 100 or more total yards in all four contests this season and eight of his last nine games. Johnson amassed 124 from scrimmage (83 rushing, 41 receiving) versus the Rams, but the workload was decidedly different in last year's season series with San Francisco (15 carries, 46 yards). The 24-year-old will be spelled by Andre Ellington, as veteran Chris Johnson (groin) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday. Tyvon Branch was also shuffled to IR, with fellow safety Tyrann Mathieu temporarily being moved into the slot while D.J. Swearinger plays in nickel packages.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (1-3, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U): San Francisco collected eight takeaways in its first three games to provide a helping hand for the NFL's 28th-ranked offense, which scored a league-best 45 points off the turnovers after mustering an NFL-worst 25 for the entire 2015 season. The 49ers failed to force a turnover versus the Cowboys on Sunday and Blaine Gabbert's fourth interception of the season ended his team's bid for an upset. Carlos Hyde (73 carries, 299 yards, NFC-best five TDs) is averaging 4.9 yards per rush over his last two games, but was limited to just 51 yards in a 47-7 loss at Arizona on Sept. 27.



TRENDS:


* Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last six Thursday games.
* Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last four versus NFC West opponents.
* Under is 8-1 in 49ers last nine Thursday games.

CONSENSUS: So far the public is still backing the Cardinals, even without Carson Palmer, with 62 percent of wagers laying the points with the road faves. Meanwhile the total is seeing a much more even split, with 52 percent of wagers on the Over.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel


Week 5


Thursday, October 6


Arizona @ San Francisco


Game 303-304
October 6, 2016 @ 8:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
136.060
San Francisco
128.979
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 7
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 3
42
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-3); Over

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday, October 9


NY Giants @ Green Bay


Game 473-474
October 9, 2016 @ 8:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
128.868
Green Bay
138.668
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 10
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 7
48
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-7); Under


Cincinnati @ Dallas


Game 471-472
October 9, 2016 @ 4:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
135.147
Dallas
131.633
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 3 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
Pick
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
Under


San Diego @ Oakland


Game 469-470
October 9, 2016 @ 4:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
131.621
Oakland
129.105
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 2 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 4
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(+4); Over


Buffalo @ Los Angeles


Game 467-468
October 9, 2016 @ 4:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
140.568
Los Angeles
135.974
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 4 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Los Angeles
by 2 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+2 1/2); Under


Atlanta @ Denver


Game 465-466
October 9, 2016 @ 4:05 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
136.529
Denver
143.971
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 7 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 5 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-5 1/2); Over


Chicago @ Indianapolis


Game 463-464
October 9, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
130.970
Indianapolis
128.847
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 5
48
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+5); Under


Philadelphia @ Detroit


Game 461-462
October 9, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
137.570
Detroit
129.317
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 8
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 3
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-3); Under


Washington @ Baltimore


Game 459-460
October 9, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Washington
129.909
Baltimore
130.975
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 1
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 4
45
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+4); Under


NY Jets @ Pittsburgh


Game 457-458
October 9, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
129.231
Pittsburgh
143.074
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 14
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 7
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-7); Under


New England @ Cleveland


Game 455-456
October 9, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
New England
134.171
Cleveland
125.584
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 8 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 11 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+11 1/2); Under


Tennessee @ Miami


Game 453-454
October 9, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
124.512
Miami
130.348
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 6
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 3 1/2
34 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-3 1/2); Over


Houston @ Minnesota


Game 451-452
October 9, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Houston
130.689
Minnesota
143.085
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 12
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 6
40
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-6); Under




Monday, October 10


Tampa Bay @ Carolina


Game 475-476
October 10, 2016 @ 8:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
128.408
Carolina
130.819
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 2 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 6
42
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+6); Over

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 5




Sunday's games


Titans (1-3) @ Dolphins (1-3)— Tennessee fired its special teams coach Monday after LW’s debacle in Houston. Titans are 10-18 as road underdogs last 4+ years, 1-1 this year- they have not allowed an offensive TD in second half of last three games, outscoring foes 23-10- they lost 38-10 at home to Miami LY, are 2-4 in last six series games, 1-3 here, with last visit in 2012. Over last decade, Dolphins are dismal 11-27 as home favorite, 0-1 this year- this is first of four strait home games for Fish (next road game, Nov 13). Miami is -7 in turnovers in its last three games. AFC East teams are 5-5 vs spread in non-divisional games, 0-1 as a favorite. AFC South teams are 5-7, 2-4 as underdogs.


Patriots (3-1) @ Browns (0-4)— Brady is back at QB here after his suspension; Patriots are 6-2 vs team Belichick used to coach (36-44 in five years, 1991-95), 2-2 here, with last visit in ’10. New England is 4-12 as road favorites last 3+ years; they nipped Arizona 23-21 (+6) in only road game so far this year, with Garoppolo at QB. Browns are 0-4 this year, starting three QBs; they’re 2-2 vs spread, with last three games going over total. Cleveland lost 25-20 (+6.5, led 20-0) in only home game so far, vs Ravens- they trailed only one of four games at halftime, but have been outscored 73-17 in second half of games. Patriots are 1-1 as a favorite this year. AFC North teams are 6-6 vs spread, 1-2 as underdogs.


Jets (1-3) @ Steelers (3-1)— New York turned ball over 11 times (-9) in last two games; they’ve been outscored 51-30 in second half of games, with one TD on 21 drives since 37-31 win at Buffalo. Jets are 15-19-3 in last 37 games as a road underdog, 1-1 this year. Steelers won 24-16/43-14 in home games this year; they’re 14-6 vs spread in last 20 games as home favorite, 2-0 this year. Pitt hasn’t played game this year decided by less than 8 points; they’re 19-5 in last 24 games vs Jets; nine of last 11 series totals were 37 or less. Jets lost last nine visits to Steel City, losing last one 27-10 in ’12. AFC East teams are 5-5 vs spread in non-divisional games, 4-5 as an underdog.


Texans (3-1) @ Vikings (4-0)— Minnesota is on 17-2 spread run, 4-0 this year, after Monday’s win over Giants; Vikings won 17-14/24-10 in two home games this year- they’re 10-2 as a home favorite under Zimmer, 7-0 in last seven tries. Texans’ offense was rolling early LW, with O’Brien calling plays, until TE Fiedorowicz (knee) was injured. Houston lost 27-0 in Foxboro in its only road game; they’re 5-6-1 as road dogs under O’Brien. Minnesota won all three series games, by 6-7-17 points, in three series games; Texans lost 28-21 in their only visit here, 8 years ago. AFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread outside its division, 2-4 as underdogs, 1-3 on road. NFC North teams are 5-5 its spread n non-divisional games, 1-2 as home favorites.

Redskins (2-2) @ Ravens (3-1)— Short road trip for Washington squad that scored 60 points in winning last two games after 0-2 start; they’ve got six takeaways (+4) in last two games, winning despite being outgunned by 54-79 yards. Redskins are 3-2 vs Ravens, winning last meeting 31-28 in OT four years ago; Skins lost 24-10 in last visit here, in ’08. Washington won only road game 29-27 (+4.5) at Giants two weeks ago. Four Raven games this year were decided by total of 14 points; last two were decided by total of 3 points. Baltimore NFC East teams are 6-3 vs spread in non-division games, 2-2 as underdogs, 2-1 on road. AFC North teams are 6-6 vs spread outside its division, 3-2 as home favorites.


Eagles (3-0) @ Lions (1-3)— Philly sprinted out to 3-0 start behind rookie QB Wentz, but then had bye; will it kill their momentum? Eagles have yet to turn ball over (+6), winning 29-14 in only road game, at Chicago. Philly is 15-2 in last 17 post-bye games (2-2 in last four); going back to 1990, they’re 13-3 vs spread as favorite in post-bye games (most of that was under Reid). Eagles are 7-2 in last nine games vs Detroit, but lost 45-14 to Lions LY (TY was 430-227, Lions). Iggles are 2-1-1 in last four visits here. Detroit lost its last three games, by 1-7-3 points; underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in their games this year- they lost 16-15 to Titans in only home game. Since 2011, Lions are 1-7-1 vs spread as a home underdog.

Bears (1-3) @ Colts (1-3)— Both teams are struggling badly; Indy is first team not to have bye after London game- they requested it that way. Colts have 12 TDs on 41 drives, but needed 63-yards in last 1:20 to nip San Diego for its only win- three of their four games went over. Indy had three takeaways in their win, a total of one in their three losses- they’re 3-5 in last eight games as home favorites. Bears got first win LW, at home over Lions, holding Detroit without offensive TD. Chicago won six of last eight series games, winning last three visits here, by 4-14-16 points; Bears lost 23-14/31-17 on road this year; they’re 6-4-1 in last 11 games as a road dog. NFC North teams are 5-5 vs spread outside its division, 3-2 as road dogs. AFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread, 3-2 as home favorites.


Falcons (3-1) @ Broncos (4-0)— Atlanta has NFL’s top offense, gaining over 7 yards/play, scoring 38 pts/game- they scored 93 points in last two games, but also allow 31 pts/game. Falcons are 6-1 in last seven games as a road underdog. Broncos won/covered all four games, winning last three by 12+ points; they’re 2-4-1 as home favorites under Kubiak, 1-0 this year. Bengals are only one of four Denver foes to average 5+ yards/pass vs Denver- they threw for 5.4 yds/pass. Atlanta has thrown for 7+ yards/pass in every game. Denver won seven of last nine series games, winning three of last four here; Falcons’ last visit here was in 2004. AFC West teams are 9-5 vs spread outside the division, 3-2 as home favorites. NFC South teams are 4-6, but 3-1 as road underdogs. Over is 4-0 in Atlanta games, 3-1 in Denver games this season.


Bills (2-2) @ Rams (3-1)— Buffalo won its last two games; they’ve turned ball over only twice this year (+6), but scored only two offensive TDs on 18 drives in splitting two road games. Bills are 8-5-1 in last 14 games as a road dog- they caught break LW, playing Patriots when NE’s only QB was playing with injured thumb. Rams won last three games (two on road) with +6 turnover ratio; they’ve only led one game at half this year and that was 6-3 over Seattle. Underdogs covered all four LA games this season. Bills won five of last seven series games; they were 2-0 in St Louis, lost last two games here vs Rams. NFC West teams are 3-5 vs spread outside the division, 1-2 as home favorites. AFC East teams are 5-5, 2-3 as road underdogs.

Chargers (1-3) @ Raiders (3-1)— San Diego led all four of its games in 4th quarter, led all four games by double digits, but lost three of the four. Chargers allowed 14 TDs on 45 drives, are allowing 19.5 second half points/game. Average total in San Diego games this year: 57.3. Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in Raider games this year; all four Oakland games were decided by 7 or less points- they lost 35-28 at Atlanta in only home game. Oakland swept Chargers 37-29/23-20 LY, after losing five of previous six series games; San Diego is 3-2 in its last five visits here. NFL-wide, home favorites are 4-9 vs spread this year in divisional games. Over is 3-1 in both teams’ games this year. San Diego 19-9-1 in last 30 games as a road dog (1-1 this year). Since 2008, Oakland is 6-14 as a home favorite.


Bengals (2-2) @ Cowboys (3-1)— Dallas won/covered its last three games; they’ve only turned ball over twice in four games (+3) despite having a rookie QB. Cowboys ran ball for 393 yards in last two games- since 2010, they’re 9-28 as a home favorite. Bengals had three extra days to prep after beating Miami LW; they’ve run for less than 80 yards in three of four games this year. Dallas is 7-4 in series, winning 31-22/20-19 in last two meetings; Bengals are 1-5 in Dallas, with only win in ’88, last visit in ’08. AFC North teams are 6-6 vs spread in non-division games, 1-2 as road underdogs. NFC East teams are 6-3 vs spread, 3-1 as home favorites outside their division. Have to wonder if Bengals losing coordinators Gruden-Jackson-Zimmer over last few years has drained brain power in their coaching staff?


Giants (2-2) @ Packers (3-1)— Last 7+ years, Green Bay is 31-20-1 as a home favorite, 0-1 this year; Packers are 9-1 vs spread in last ten post-bye games, 7-2 in last nine when favored. Pack was held to 4.4 yards/pass in only loss, at Minnesota. Giants are on short week after loss in Minnesota Monday; NY has only one takeaway, is -8 in turnovers and was just 2-12 on third down vs Vikings. Giants are 5-7-1 in last 13 games as a road underdog. Big Blue smarting after consecutive losses; they’ve won last three games with Packers- they’re 3-1 in last four visits here, with last one 2011 playoff game. NFC East teams are 6-3 vs spread outside the division, 1-1 as road dogs. NFC North teams are 5-5 vs spread, 1-2 as home favorites. Last two weeks, Giants allowed 8.2/7.3 yards/pass attempt; they’ll need to do better than that here.


Monday's game


Buccaneers (1-3) @ Panthers (1-3)— Unclear yet if Newton will start here; if not, backup QB Anderson is 20-25 as an NFL starter, just 2-0 since 2010. Carolina turned ball over nine times (-5) in last three games; they’ve led three of four games at the half, but are 1-3. Tampa Bay allowed 34.7 pts/game in losing last three games; they’re -9 in turnovers, were outscored 46-19 in second half last three weeks. Carolina is 13-5-2 in last 20 games as a home favorite. Tampa Bay is 10-8 in last 18 games as road dog. Carolina won last six series games, four by 14+ points; Panthers swept Bucs 37-23/38-10 LY, with 8 takeaways (+5) in two games and two defensive TDs, with five scoring drives less than 50 yards. Bucs lost last three visits here by 21-2-28 points. Tampa Bay has lost field position in all four games, three by 7+ points; their special teams need improvement and they need to protect the ball better.

 

[CNOTES]

WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 45-64-3 41.28% -12700


O/U Picks 49-65-4 42.98% -11250




THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


ARI at SF 08:25 PM


SF +3.5


U 43.0

 

[CNOTES]

AP Source: Broncos rookie Paxton Lynch to start Sunday
October 8, 2016


DENVER (AP) Broncos rookie Paxton Lynch will make his first NFL start Sunday when Denver hosts the Atlanta Falcons, a person with knowledge of coach Gary Kubiak's decision told The Associated Press on Saturday.


The person, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the team didn't make the choice public, said Trevor Siemian's sprained left shoulder isn't 100 percent and the hope is that the extra time will allow Siemian to start Thursday night in San Diego.


Siemian sprained his AC joint in his non-throwing shoulder just before halftime of Denver's 27-7 win at Tampa Bay last weekend and Lynch completed 14 of 24 passes for 170 yards and a TD in relief.


Kubiak reiterated Monday that Siemian was still his starter but would only play this weekend if his health allowed. On Friday, Kubiak said the short turnaround before the Chargers game would have no bearing on who he decides to start against Atlanta.


The Falcons (3-1) bring the NFL's top-rated offense but the league's 30th-ranked defense into Denver on Sunday, where the Broncos (4-0) are seeking their 10th consecutive victory.


Lynch got all the snaps with the starters with Siemian sitting out Wednesday's practice, and he continued to get the bulk of the reps even as Siemian returned Thursday and gradually increased his workload.


Unlike last year, when the Broncos had to make major changes in their game plan depending on whether Peyton Manning or Brock Osweiler was starting, the coaches only have to thin the playbook a little bit with Lynch, the 26th overall pick out of Memphis in the April draft.


''It definitely feels good knowing that I've played in a game if I were to start or play in this game,'' Lynch said Wednesday. ''It feels good to get some game reps under your belt so you're not just thrown out there.''


---------------------------------------


Rams cut Sensabaugh 4 games into 3-yr deal
October 8, 2016


THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. (AP) The Los Angeles Rams cut cornerback Coty Sensabaugh on Saturday, just four games into his three-year contract.


The Rams (3-1) also promoted defensive lineman Morgan Fox from the practice squad.


Sensabaugh joined the Rams in March with a free-agent deal potentially worth nearly $15 million, rising to $19 million if he met incentives. He is making $4.5 million in guarantees this season.


Sensabaugh started the Rams' first two games, but he lost playing time to Troy Hill, who started the last two. E.J. Gaines, a 2014 starting cornerback for the Rams, also returned from injury last week.


The Rams used Lamarcus Joyner in the nickel defensive back role often filled by Sensabaugh with the Tennessee Titans, where he spent his first four NFL seasons.


Los Angeles signed Sensabaugh after losing Janoris Jenkins to a lucrative free-agent deal with the New York Giants. Gaines missed all of last season with a foot injury, but he appears to be slipping back into a major role opposite fellow starting cornerback Trumaine Johnson.


Los Angeles hosts the Buffalo Bills (2-2) on Sunday.


The Rams could need Fox, an undrafted free agent from Colorado State-Pueblo who impressed the team in the preseason. Defensive linemen Robert Quinn, William Hayes and Michael Brockers all missed practices this week with injuries, leaving them questionable for Sunday.

 

[CNOTES]

Panthers QB Cam Newton out for MNF
October 8, 2016


CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) Concussed quarterback Cam Newton and three other Carolina Panthers starters have been have been ruled out for Monday night's game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers .


The league's MVP hasn't practiced since taking a helmet-to-helmet hit in Sunday's 48-33 loss to the Atlanta Falcons.


Derek Anderson will start for Carolina in Newton's place.


Panthers coach Ron Rivera described Newton as ''antsy,'' adding that ''he can't help himself.''


This is only the third game Newton has missed since joining the Panthers as the No. 1 pick in 2011.


''We're going to do what we do, play who we play,'' Rivera said after Saturday's practice. ''We've done this before. It's that next-man-up mentality.''


Anderson is 2-0 as Newton's replacement since joining the Panthers in 2011, with both wins coming against Tampa Bay in 2014. Anderson threw two TD passes and had two turnovers in relief of Newton last week against the Falcons.


''You know D.A. is going to get it out quick, quicker probably than Cam,'' wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin said this week. ''We're going to have to be fast on our routes.''


''I think he takes what he can get when he plays,'' Rivera said of Anderson. ''Unlike Cam, who is going to stand tall in there and maybe skip an opportunity and work something downfield, Derek is going to be quick to pull the trigger and make a quick decision and go forward.''


It's unclear when Newton will return.


The Panthers visit the New Orleans Saints on Oct. 16 and then have a bye the following week, so it is conceivable the team could hold him out through the bye week to make sure he's recovered.


Newton took four helmet-to-helmet hits in Carolina's loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 1. However, he played through those hits and stayed in the game.


But last week, Newton took a legal helmet-to-helmet blow from Falcons linebacker Deion Jones in the fourth quarter. He hasn't spoken to the media since because he's been in the league's concussion protocol.


Carolina will also be without three other starters on Monday - running back Jonathan Stewart (hamstring), left tackle Michael Oher (concussion) and cornerback James Bradberry (toe). Defensive tackle Vernon Butler (ankle), the team's first-round draft pick, is also out.


Rivera said he feels reasonably confident Stewart will be back next week. In the meantime, Cameron Artis-Payne and Fozzy Whittaker will share carries.


With Bradberry out and Bene Benwikere having been abruptly waived earlier in the week, Rivera said the Panthers will start Robert McClain and rookie Daryl Worley at cornerback.


Outside linebacker Thomas Davis (hamstring), defensive end Charles Johnson (quad), fullback Mike Tolbert (hamstring) and wide receivers Ted Ginn Jr. (foot) and Devin Funches are listed as questionable. All three practiced and are expected to play against the Buccaneers (1-3).

 

[CNOTES]

Panthers QB Newton, 3 others starters out vs. Tampa Bay
October 8, 2016


CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has been ruled out for Monday night's game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a concussion.


The league's MVP hasn't practiced since taking a helmet-to-helmet hit in Sunday's 48-33 loss to the Atlanta Falcons.


Derek Anderson will start for Carolina in Newton's place.


It's unclear when Newton will return. The Panthers visit the New Orleans Saints on Oct. 16 and then have a bye the following week.


Carolina will also be without three other starters on Monday - running back Jonathan Stewart (hamstring), left tackle Michael Oher (concussion) and cornerback James Bradberry (toe). Defensive tackle Vernon Butler (ankle), the team's first-round draft pick, is also out.


Outside linebacker Thomas Davis (hamstring), defensive end Charles Johnson (quad) and fullback Mike Tolbert (hamstring) are listed as questionable.

 

[CNOTES]

Here comes Brady, as if Browns don't have enough problems
October 8, 2016


Even with the Falcons at Denver, the perfect Vikings hosting Houston and the unbeaten Eagles returning from their bye to face Detroit, the spotlight is on Cleveland in Week 5. And no, the 0-4 Browns aren't the attraction. Tom Brady is.


Back from his ''Deflategate'' four-game suspension, Brady isn't talking much. Anyone who has watched him win four Super Bowls and two league MVP honors knows how much of an edge he will bring to Sunday's game.


That might be even sharper after New England was blanked at home by Buffalo following three victories.


Of course, if you seek any wisdom from Foxborough, that's a dead end. The Browns provided more insight on the quarterback they will face than any of the Patriots managed about Brady.


''I think he is going to come back and just be ready to go. He is a true professional,'' Browns cornerback Joe Haden says.


''Whenever he is out on the field, he studies professionally, he knows where he wants to go with the ball and he is confident in his players. Him and his coach, they have been together for so long so they just know each other like the back of their hands. I think that he is going to come back in midseason form.''


If the Browns already are in midseason form, they could be a threat to equal Detroit's 0-16 season of 2008.


The action began Thursday night with visiting Arizona's 33-21 victory over San Francisco. Drew Stanton threw two touchdown passes to Larry Fitzgerald in his first start in two years, David Johnson ran for two scores and the Cardinals (2-3) capitalized on mistakes by San Francisco (1-4).


Stanton played in place of Carson Palmer, the Arizona starter sidelined by a concussion.


Off this week are Jacksonville (1-3), New Orleans (1-3), Kansas City (2-2) and Seattle (3-1).


Atlanta (3-1) at Denver (4-0)


Clearly the best matchup this week, the Falcons come off a blowout win over Carolina, which the Broncos barely edged in the season opener. Of course, Denver manhandled the Panthers in the Super Bowl, and its defense is just as good, if not better.


That presents a hefty challenge for the Falcons , whose offense is ranked atop the league, led by Matt Ryan throwing to Julio Jones. Atlanta has scored 152 points, 38 more than anyone else.


So this is a classic powerful offense vs. dominant defense matchup.


''We don't want to be the team on the other side of a 500-yard game by Matt Ryan, so it just motivates us to prepare even harder,'' Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib says. ''It fires us up to go compete against the best. Julio and Matt Ryan are the best right now in the league, so it fires us up to go compete against them.''


Jones returns the compliments when asked about Denver's secondary, even as he prepares to try to victimize the Broncos.


''Just their whole defense is a great defense, probably one of the best defenses we're going to face this year,'' Jones says. ''It's not more about them, it's more about us. We've got to go there and do what we do. They have great athletes, and definitely in the secondary and their front seven is very, very good. It comes down to us and our execution.''


Houston (3-1) at Minnesota (4-0)


Wow, do the Vikings look good. And whoa, for a first-place team, do the Texans look mediocre.


If it wasn't for Denver's outrageous defense, the football world would be in awe of Minnesota's. Not since 1988 have the Vikings allowed fewer points (50) through four games than this season. They also lead the NFL with a plus-10 turnover margin; their only giveaway was a lost fumble by safety Andrew Sendejo during his own fumble return.


Houston has beaten Chicago, Kansas City and Tennessee in unimpressive fashion, and didn't show up for its toughest opponent, a 27-0 loss at the Patriots. The Texans' best player, DE J.J. Watt (back) is gone for the season.


Philadelphia (3-0) at Detroit (1-3)


There's plenty of eagerness, and a bit of trepidation, in Philly as the Eagles get back on the field. Their fans are thrilled by the quick start behind rookie quarterback Carson Wentz but also wonder if it is for real.


Beating Detroit doesn't prove a lot, but losing to the Lions, even on the road, could be a sign the first three weeks were something of a mirage in Philadelphia.


''Really in my opinion our season starts now,'' coach Doug Pederson says. ''What we've done already is great and we're in a good position, but we need to buckle down and prepare as if this is Week 1.''


Why has Detroit dropped three in a row? Try ranking second with 370 yards in penalties and third with 39 penalties in total. Plus, the Lions have only one pick and have not recovered a fumble.


Cincinnati (2-2) at Dallas (3-1)


Finally, Cowboys rookie QB Dak Prescott faces a solid defense. If he passes this test, Dallas might be onto something at quarterback while Tony Romo heals. Prescott has thrown a rookie-record 131 passes without an interception to start his career, tied with Hall of Famer Warren Moon for second overall behind Brady (162).


This one could be decided on the ground. Cincinnati hasn't allowed a rushing TD this season, while the Cowboys have NFL-leading eight. Dallas rookie Ezekiel Elliott leads the league in rushing with 412 yards.


Then again, the Bengals have one of the sport's most dangerous receivers, A.J. Green, who has two games this season with 10 catches.


New York Jets (1-3) at Pittsburgh (3-1)


One of the worst matchups possible for the reeling Jets: New York trails the overall series 19-5 and is 1-9 in Pittsburgh.


If the Jets don't tidy up, they could get rocked at Heinz Field. Their 13 turnovers are the most in the NFL and Ryan Fitzpatrick's 10 interceptions lead the league. He's also 0-4 against the Steelers.


Ben Roethlisberger's 11 TD passes are tied for the NFL high with Atlanta's Ryan, and he is 31-10 in October. His top target, 2015 All-Pro Antonio Brown, has four TD receptions, also tied for the league lead. Running back Le'Veon Bell rolled up 178 yards of total offense in his 2016 debut last Sunday night after serving a three-game suspension.


Washington (2-2) at Baltimore (3-1)


Despite having stadiums a half-hour apart on I-95, these franchises have met only five times in real games. Washington's last win in Baltimore was in 1955 against the Colts.


Ravens coach John Harbaugh can pass Brian Billick for most regular-season wins in franchise history with 81. He'll rely on a defense ranked atop the league that has allowed only eight plays of at least 20 yards, fewest in the NFL. With RB Terrance West coming off his best game, Baltimore gets to test the NFL's second-worst rushing defense, which has yielded eight TDs on the ground and 133 yards rushing per game.


Buffalo (2-2) at Los Angeles (3-1)

Both teams are feeling very good about themselves.


Buffalo comes off a shutout at Foxborough, the first time the Patriots have been blanked in Gillette Stadium. The Bills have won twice since Greg Roman was canned as offensive coordinator and replaced by Anthony Lynn, and they get back DT Marcell Dareus from a four-game suspension for his second violation of the league's substance abuse policy.


Not only have the Rams won three in a row after an awful opener, they are winning despite ranking dead last in total offense. There's nothing wrong with the defense, led by Aaron Donald, and if RB Todd Gurley, last year's top offensive rookie, can get going, Los Angeles might have a contender in its first season back in the NFL.


Tampa Bay (1-3) at Carolina (1-3), Monday night


It would be tempting to bury the loser of this prime-time affair, especially in light of Atlanta's hot start. And it would be easier to do so with the Buccaneers, who can't avoid turnovers (nine) and are allowing 32 points an outing.


Carolina starts backup QB Derek Anderson with Cam Newton out with a concussion. What the Panthers really seem to need is rapid development in the secondary; the decision to let Josh Norman leave in free agency has been biting the conference champions.


Anderson isn't mobile like Newton, and Carolina's line has allowed 13 sacks.


San Diego (1-3) at Oakland (3-1)


If you want a definition of self-destruction, simply look at the Chargers' lack of a finishing touch. They have given up 51 points in the first three quarters combined and 51 points in fourth quarter. San Diego led all four games at the two-minute warning but lost three.


Oakland has won three in a row despite a sieve of a defense. The previous time Oakland was 4-1 was 2002, the season when the Raiders won the AFC title. Placekicker Sebastian Janikowski needs five points to become the 13th player with 1,700 in his career.


Tennessee (1-3) at Miami (1-3)


Both teams have been keeping one eye on Hurricane Matthew while preparing. In a scheduling oddity, the Titans will play a team coming off a longer layoff after playing on a Thursday night for the second straight week; they lost to Houston last Sunday.


Don't look for much offense here with Tennessee at the bottom of the NFL in scoring with 62 points and Miami unable to run the ball, averaging 61 yards per game. The Dolphins rank last in third-down conversions (27 percent) and tied for 31st with 65 first downs.

New York Giants (2-2) at Green Bay (2-1)


The Pack is back - from a bye. Seeing the Giants would seem to be a good way to return considering how inept New York's injury-depleted secondary has been. Aaron Rodgers must be eager as all get-out to get on the field, but he should remember that the Giants have won two huge games there in the playoffs in 2008 and 2012.


Green Bay is holding opponents to a league-stingiest 1.8 yards rushing per play. The Giants rank 19th running the ball.


The Packers have been vulnerable through the air, though. In their past two outings, they allowed career-best days to Lions WR Marvin Jones (six catches, 205 yards, two TDs) and Vikings WR Stefon Diggs (nine catches, 182 yards, one TD).


Chicago (1-3) at Indianapolis (1-3)


Not too far a drive for Bears fans to make. Why they would want to make it, we don't know.


Actually, the Bears got off the schneid with their win over Detroit last weekend, and in their only trips to Lucas Oil Stadium, they won the building's debut game in 2008, and then knocked off the Colts in Andrew Luck's first game in 2012.


Indy running back Frank Gore needs 20 yards rushing to pass Jim Brown - yes Jim Brown - for No. 9 on NFL's career list. Adam Vinatieri has made 33 consecutive field goals, three short of his own career best in Indy.

 

[CNOTES]

Gridiron Angles - Week 5
October 8, 2016



NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:


-- The Vikings are 10-0 ATS since Nov 02, 2014 as a favorite after they allowed fewer points than expected last game.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:


-- The Cowboys are 0-10 ATS since Sep 19, 2010 at home off a game as a favorite where they had at least 32 minutes time of possession.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:


-- The Falcons are 0-8 O/U since Nov 01, 2015 after a game where Julio Jones had at least seven receptions.


NFL ATS SYSTEM:


-- Teams which made 5+ field goals last game are 42-54-2 ATS. Active against Cincinnati.


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:


-- The Texans are 0-10 O/U since Oct 11, 2009 as a dog of more than three points after they committed at least two turnovers last game.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:


-- The Chargers are 10-0-1 O/U since Nov 12, 2006 on the road off a game as a favorite where they had less than 28 minutes time of possession.


NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:


-- The Redskins are 10-0 ATS as a dog vs a team that has forced an average of at least 5.9 punts per game season-to-date.

 

[CNOTES]

SuperContest Picks - Week 5
October 8, 2016


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.


Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.


The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.


This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.


Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.


Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4


Week 5


1) Cincinnati -1 (841)
2) Philadelphia -3 (568)
3) Minnesota -6.5 (508)
4) Pittsburgh -7 (494)
5) N.Y. Giants +7.5 (476)


SUPERCONTEST WEEK 5 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Arizona (-3.5) 130 San Francisco (+3.5) 78
Houston (+6.5) 273 Minnesota (-6.5) 508
Tennessee (+3.5) 332 Miami (-3.5) 131
New England (-10.5) 368 Cleveland (+10.5) 282
N.Y. Jets (+7) 221 Pittsburgh (-7) 494
Washington (+4) 397 Baltimore (-4) 240
Philadelphia (-3) 568 Detroit (+3) 443
Chicago (+4.5) 331 Indianapolis (-4.5) 203
Atlanta (+5.5) 314 Denver (-5.5) 383
Buffalo (+2) 430 Los Angeles (-2) 325
San Diego (+3.5) 441 Oakland (-3.5) 334
Cincinnati (-1) 841 Dallas (+1) 215
N.Y. Giants (+7.5) 476 Green Bay (-7.5) 143
Tampa Bay (+6.5) 224 Carolina (-6.5) 95


WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%
3 0-5 3-12 20%
4 1-4 4-16 20%

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Week 5 Essentials
October 7, 2016


We enter Week 5 with just three undefeated teams and a single winless one, so every team has to feel they’re close to clicking and really taking off since few have really gained separation. Although teams like the Raiders and Rams have a shot at a surprising 4-1 start, most eyes will be on high-profile expected playoff contenders like the Panthers, Colts and Jets all trying to emulate the Cardinals in avoiding opening 1-4. Seattle, Kansas City, Jacksonville and New Orleans are on bye. Here’s what else you need to know before wagering on Week 5:


Sunday, Oct. 9


Houston at Minnesota: The Texans prevailed in their first game since likely losing J.J. Watt for the season, scoring a season-high 27 points. Will Fuller played hero with a game-winning punt return, Brock Osweiler threw for two touchdowns for the first time since the season-opener and they came out of the win over Tennessee with a two-game edge on everyone in the AFC South. They’ll enter the new US Bank Stadium, where Minnesota’s defense has shined in high-profile night games against the Packers and Giants, looking to prove they can move the ball on the road since their only showing thus far was that 27-0 Thursday night debacle at New England. The Vikings have surrendered 50 points (12.5) over their four wins, ranking second in scoring defense while registering 15 sacks and 11 takeaways. Coming off a short week won’t affect much since they stayed home sleeping in their beds, so this will be a nice test in a potential letdown spot. The Texans have never beaten Minnesota, coming in 0-3, suffering the last loss in 2012.


Tennessee at Miami: All three of the Titans losses have been one-possession games where they felt they gave away chances and created opportunities for opponents. Special teams coordinator Bobby April paid with his job, but Tennessee’s struggles have been a combination of all units falling short. They’re a fairly young group still lacking true leaders, so it will be interesting to see whether they can rebound on the road in South Florida against another team out to avoid a 1-4 start. The Dolphins had a couple of extra days since they opened Week 4 with a Thursday night loss in Cincinnati where they showed little offensive chemistry. RB Arian Foster (groin) back at practice on Wednesday and hope he’ll suit up for his home debut. Since they’ve played three of the NFL’s better teams on the road at Seattle, New England and Cincy, Miami is likely right where it is supposed to be record-wise, but begins a stretch of four consecutive home games that it must make good use of to have any chance at a winning season. These teams are both in the bottom-five in turnover differential, so it would be fitting if that stat winds up determining a winner here. Miami won in Nashville last year 38-10, sacking Marcus Mariota six times and intercepting him twice. The Dolphins are hoping Hurricane Matthew cooperates enough that this game goes on as scheduled.


New England at Cleveland: Tom Brady’s suspension is over, so we’ll get to see him take a meaningful snap for the first time since the Broncos picked off his two-point conversion attempt in January’s AFC Championship game. That play followed Rob Gronkowski’s last touchdown in an NFL game, since the tight end missed the entire preseason and has just one reception so far, struggling with a hamstring issue. Coming off being shut out for the first time since 2006, the Patriots should rebound against a Browns defense that ranks next-to-last in the AFC in points allowed (28.8). New England also gets DE Rob Ninkovich back from suspension to face a Cleveland offense that will again be led by rookie QB Cody Kessler, who will make his third straight start since Josh McCown (shoulder) remains sidelined. The Browns are 1-14 SU (3-11-1 ATS) in their last 15 games and lost their final contest of the 2015 regular season as a double-digit home underdog to Pittsburgh, failing to cover +13 in a 28-12 setback. New England has won five of the last six in this series.


N.Y. Jets at Pittsburgh: After throwing three more interceptions, Ryan Fitzpatrick has now thrown a league-high 10 and New York is at the bottom in giveaways (13) and turnover margin (-10). It’s not entirely Fitzpatrick’s fault, but most of it does fall on his shoulders, which means he could be on a short leash despite Todd Bowles’ continued confidence in his quarterback. Geno Smith hasn’t taken a snap in a regular-season game since his only appearance last year in a 34-20 loss at Oakland on Nov. 1. Pittsburgh has won its last six home games, suffering its last loss on that same Nov. 1 date, Week 8 of the 2015 season. Le’Veon Bell accounted for 178 yards in his return from a three-game suspension but will have to deal with a Jets run defense that ranks second in the NFL in yards allowed per game (70.3) and per carry (3.1). Antonio Brown comes off a two-touchdown night in Sunday’s 43-14 rout of Kansas City and is likely salivating at squaring off against Pittsburgh native Darrelle Revis, who has allowed 81 percent of passes in his direction to be completed and had been tormented by the deep ball even before his latest hamstring tweak, which has him questionable for this one. RB Matt Forte (leg) should play, but the prognosis isn’t as positive for WR Eric Decker (rotator cuff), who is listed as doubtful. The Jets are 1-9 in Pittsburgh and 5-19 all-time against the Steelers, but did win the most recent meeting (20-13, Nov. 2014).

Washington at Baltimore: These teams essentially share a market and have to compete for attention while also being forced to read about one another all the time, so this won’t be your typical interconference matchup. There have only been five meetings since the Ravens were established 20 years ago and all but one of the games have been decided by seven or fewer points. Washington won the 2012 meeting in OT to pull to within 3-2 in the series, but will be playing in Baltimore for just the second time. The Ravens come off their first loss of the season and have been involved in games solely decided by a single possession. The over has prevailed in all four ‘Skins games thus far and the team’s rush defense and points-per-game average ranks among the league’s bottom-five. Baltimore let go of veteran Justin Forsett this week, but look to have turned the page behind Terrance West and Buck Allen.


Philadelphia at Detroit: The Eagles come off a bye week, so all the good vibes and momentum they’ve acquired in becoming the league’s surprise team carried over into October. They’ll hit the road for just the second time this season, but come off dominating a Steelers squad that they just watched annihilate Andy Reid’s Chiefs last Sunday night, so doubt won’t be something they’re packing on this trip. Philly’s defense is strong enough to do the heavy lifting and Carson Wentz looks proficient enough as a rookie to keep the offense from being a liability. Eagles tackle Lane Johnson’s suspension has kicked in, so they’re catching a break with it looking likely that top pass-rusher Ezekiel Ansah (ankle) will miss another game. The Lions were hoping to have standout LB Deandre Levy (quad) back, but ruled him and TE Eric Ebron (ankle) out on Friday. Philadelphia is 7-2 in its last nine against Detroit, but has lost two of the last three meetings after a 45-14 setback at Ford Field last season.


Chicago at Indianapolis: The Bears have seen Brian Hoyer deliver a win and a pair of 300-yard passing games since taking over for the injured Jay Cutler, who is doubtful again here due to a thumb injury. They’re hopeful to hang around despite already suffering so many personnel losses on offense, having proven they can still move the ball enough to win with Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal and Zach Miller as primary targets against a defense that has surrendered 31.3 points per game. Indy will get DE Arthur Jones from suspension and has a healthier group in place, but it got no bye upon returning from its loss to the Jaguars in London, so we’ll see if the team’s legs will hold up all four quarters. Chicago has actually dominated the last two games in this series by a 70-34.


Atlanta at Denver: The Falcons take their three-game winning streak into Denver for a true test of where they are on both sides of the ball. Although they’ve got a two-game edge on the rest of the NFC South and averaging 38.0 points per game, they’ve played some of the worst defensive teams in the league thus far and are about to take aim at one of the best. The asterisk of course, is what they accomplished last week by pouring in 48 to rout Carolina, but the Panthers secondary has been a major disappointment. Matt Ryan has been tremendous and leads all quarterbacks in passing yards, touchdown passes, QB rating and yards per attempt. Aqib Talib has a long history against Julio Jones from his days with the Bucs, so that should be an tremendous matchup. The Broncos are still unsure whether Trevor Siemian will be able to make it back from a shoulder injury, increasing the likelihood that first-round pick Paxton Lynch will make his first career start. Demariyus Thomas, who caught Lynch’s first TD pass last week in Tampa, is still dealing with a hip issue, so Denver could have trouble keeping pace if its defense doesn’t rise to the challenge. The Broncos have won seven of nine over Atlanta dating back to 1985, but lost the last matchup in 2012 in addition to the last meeting at Mile High back in 2004.


Buffalo at Los Angeles: The Rams opened the season by getting blanked 28-0 by the 49ers, but have utilized a perfect run since and are actually now favored to take a lead in the NFC West over idle Seattle. To do so, they must handle business at home against Buffalo, who probably could’ve flown cross-country on the cloud they were on after blanking New England at Foxboro last week. The Bills will need their defense to rise up again since L.A. has scored fewer points than 29 of the other 31 teams but has persevered thanks to its defense’s ability to win up front and make plays in the back. It’s no surprise that this has surpassed Texans/Vikings the game with the lowest total since this will likely be a game dictated by the ground attack and won by whoever makes the fewest mistakes.


San Diego at Oakland: This AFC West clash joins the Monday-nighter as the only divisional games this week, and coming off a brutal letdown of a home loss, looms as a must-win for the visitors. The Chargers literally fumbled a game away against New Orleans and have suffered through more heartbreak due to season-ending injuries and grueling self-induced meltdowns than anyone. CB Jason Verrett was the latest key Charger lost for the season, which should help Derek Carr and the Raiders passing game identify mismatches given all their weapons. Oakland RB Latavius Murray may not be able to play after injuring his foot, which would give rookie Jalen Richard a chance to excel. The Raiders swept the season series from San Diego in 2015 for the first time since 2010.


Cincinnati at Dallas: All eyes here will be on the availability of star WR Dez Bryant (knee), who looks like he may miss his second straight game. My contention is that it will be far more vital to this game’s outcome if RB Jeremy Hill will play for the Bengals. Hill, who leads the team with three TDs and 221 rushing yards but was limited in practice Thursday, is struggling with a chest injury. This game should be decided in the trenches and on the ground, so not having a bruising back like Hill around to allow Giovani Bernard and Rex Burkhead to remain in their roles is going to be essential. Burkhead himself is dealing with a hamstring issue. The Cowboys will be down standout young guard La’el Collins, but should see LT Tyron Smith return from a back injury that kept him out last week. Rookie QB Dak Prescott proved he can win a game without Bryant on the road, although it helped the Cowboy cause that the 49ers lost multiple key defensive players in last week’s win. Dallas has won three of four against Cincy this century, including a 20-19 win in the last meeting in 2012 on a Dan Bailey last-second field goal. The Bengals are playing for the first time at Jerry World and haven’t won in the DFW area since 1988.


N.Y. Giants at Green Bay: Even though the offensive performance New York put on display Monday against mighty Minnesota was a dud, Odell Beckham, Jr.’s theatrics and the fallout from his latest meltdown won’t do anything to hurt ratings in this prime-time affair. Love him or hate him, he’s a magnet for controversy and is set to visit Lambeau Field, where Aaron Rodgers will undoubtedly put pressure on New York’s offense to match his production. If Beckham continues to feel slighted and the Giants struggle, the situation could become combustible. The Packers are looking to strike the match while coming off an early bye week, likely getting key defensive players Clay Matthews, Letroy Guion, Morgan Burnett and Datone Jones back after they missed the win over Detroit. The Giants are hopeful Rashad Jennings can return from a thumb injury after missing Monday’s loss as they attempt to win their fourth straight in this series. These teams have a rich history since New York ended the Brett Favre era with an OT win in the 2007 NFC Championship game. Rodgers beat Eli Manning in their first two head-to-head meetings, but hasn’t won since 2011 and was absent for the most recent encounter in ’13, which means the probable Hall-of-Fame QBs are 2-2 against one another.


Monday, Oct. 10


Tampa Bay at Carolina: Although he has an extra day to make it through concussion protocol, Cam Newton hadn’t practiced through Thursday. Derek Anderson is preparing to make his first start since Dec. 14, 2014 after throwing a pair of TD passes and two picks last week in Atlanta. He last opened under center after Newton’s car accident scare, ironically, against Tampa Bay. Although he’s been on the roster since 2011 and would be playing his 19th game with the Panthers, this would only be his third start. He’s 2-0, beating the Bucs twice in ’14. Having veteran RB Jonathan Stewart back would aid matters for whoever the quarterback is, but he’s just working his way back from a hamstring injury and may still be a week away. Tampa Bay RB Doug Martin is also expected to miss his third straight game with a hammy, so the diminutive Jacquizz Rodgers will be the likely starter. Key defensive lineman Gerald McCoy (calf) and Noah Spence (shoulder) are doubtful for Tampa Bay, so the winner of this key Monday night game may wind up being the team that’s able to adapt best. Both NFC South squads are legitimately banged up, but since the NFL grind has no compassion, one will slip to 1-4 and take up residence in last place. Jameis Winston is 0-2 against Carolina, which has won eight of 10 in this series.

 

[CNOTES]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 5
October 7, 2016


The betting public in Las Vegas is showing just how excited they are about Tom Brady making his regular season debut Sunday, or maybe they're just showing how much they hate the winless Browns. Either way, New England laying -10.5 at Cleveland has been a popular wager during Week 5 action through Friday.

William Hill's 108 sports book across Nevada reported they have the most money bet on the Brady return-game among all 12 Sunday games and 90 percent of that cash has been laying the points with the Patriots. They've also got one of the most one-sided ticket counts of the week at 89 percent. The only team with larger ticket ratio than New England's is Philadelphia at a 91 percent clip for its road game at Detroit.

Needless to say, but I will anyway, most sports books will be rooting hard for the popular Patriots-Eagles two-team parlay not to come through. If those two sides hit, they'll be key to the majority looking to cash three, four and five team parlays. They are the root two-teamer to a disastrous weekend for the books. Last week those two sides were Denver and Dallas and bettors cleaned up.

Let's take a look at all the movement from the week with the help of the South Point's veteran sports book director Chris Andrews, who has one of the most unique mix of wagers at his property between sharps and Joe Public. And he's also found his book some Cleveland money.

The Vikings have been impressive and public likes them too now after not believing so much the first four weeks -- all Vikings wins and covers. Minnesota tickets are being wagering at a 4.5-to-1 clip over the Texans and money large enough to matter has bet the Vikings from -6 up to a high of -7 on Friday. The total has stayed at 40 all week.

In a battle of woeful 1-3 teams, not many seem to have an opinion on the Dolphins being 3.5-point home favorites over the Titans. It hasn't moved all week, despite Andrews taking a wager on Tennessee from a sharp. The Titans are seeing a few more tickets written on them. The total has also been stagnant at 43.

It's easy to understand why the public hates the Browns, who have yet to win and have covered only once despite looking competitive in their last three. Tom Brady is back and that's all that matters. It's been a steady -10.5 with the exception Boyd Gaming and the Golden Nugget currently at -11 hoping that some large money shows on the Browns to lessen the risk. "We were at 11 and and took a good size bet from a wise guy," Andrews said. "The public is all over the Patriots, but if the game kicked off now, we'd need the Patriots a little bit." The total has dropped from 47 down to 46.5.

The South Point opened the Steelers as 7.5-point home favorites over the Jets and settled at -7 Monday night before going back to -7.5 on Friday. "We had wise-guy money on the Jets early on, but since going back to 7.5, we haven't seen anything," Andrews said. "Revis and Decker are both expected to miss so maybe the game is no longer attractive to them." The total dropped from 48.5 to 48 on Wednesday.

Baltimore was steady at -4 for its home game against Washington until Friday when Andrews moved them to -3.5. "Sharps took the +4, but it's an otherwise dead game as far as interest goes," he said. The total has gone from from 46.5 down to 46. The Redskins have gone Over in all four of their games.

"We've got lots of Eagles money from small money to large money," Andrews said. "Wise guys laid -2.5 and -3 with them and the public has been playing parlays throughout the week on them. The 3-0 Eagles are now 3.5-point road favorites at Detroit and the total is 46.

The Colts are 4.5-point home favorites against the Bears with a total at 47.5. "There's nothing there," Andrews said while scanning his bookmaking screen. "What little play there is is evenly split with a shade high on the Colts."

"We had great play on the Falcons which kind of surprises me," Andrews said of the Falcons who play at 4-0 Denver this week. "Sharps took +6 and even +5.5, and we're even getting the parlay action believing in Atlanta. We need Denver right now." Books love being in position to need good teams when the masses are betting the other way. It's rare, though. The total is sitting at 47.

"The public is split on the Rams, but wise-guys like Buffalo." They took +3 on Monday and took +2.5 on Friday. The total has dropped from 40 to 39.

We've got a classic old AFL match-up with the Raiders as 3.5-point home favorites over San Diego, which Andrews says he's "seen decent play both ways -- it's a good number."

"It's been all Bengals so far with the wise-guys and the public is on them as well." Andrews opened Dallas as 1-point home favorites, but the Bengals are now -1.5. The total hasn't moved off of 45.5. The Bengals have covered nine of their last 10 road games.

"The public likes the Pack and wise guys like the Giants," said Andrews. "This will be a big game for us not just because it's the final game on Sunday, but also because of all the teaser and parlay risk we'll have on Green Bay." Sharps took +7.5 and the South Point is sitting at -7 and 48.

BLUE LIGHT SPECIAL TO BOOKMARK


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook is offering a great special to reward bettors for getting their plays in early. Every Thursday from 3-11 p.m. PT, bettors can lay -105 juice, as opposed to the standard -110, on all pro and college football sides.


It may not sound like a big deal for the bettor saving $1 while laying $21 to win $20, but for the bettor that saves $500 on a bet to win $10,000, it's huge. The info doesn't help you out this week, but file it away as something to take advantage of next week and every week after through football season.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Week 5
October 8, 2016


The ‘over’ went 8-7 last weekend with seven teams scoring 30-plus points. Atlanta and Pittsburgh once again showed their explosive ability as they posted 48 and 43 points respectively. Through four weeks, the ‘over’ holds a slight edge at 33-29-1.


Quick Observations


-- Tampa Bay scored 31 in Week 1 and followed that effort with seven points in Week 2. Coincidentally, the Buccaneers posted 32 in Week 3 and were held to seven again last Sunday to Denver.


-- The Bills shutout the Patriots 16-0 last Sunday, the third blanking of the season and that’s rare considering we only had two all of last season. In the first two bagels of 2016, it should be noted that the winning team lost its next game while the loser rebounded. Buffalo visits Los Angeles and New England travels to Cleveland in Week 5.


Off the Bye


The NFL breaks started last week as the Packers and Eagles got an early rest and four teams will be off in Week 5. Handicapping off the bye is never easy but I tend to lean towards coaches that have a decent tenure with their current squads.




Green Bay – Sticking with the above, head coach Mike McCarthy has led Green Bay to an 8-2 record off the bye since he arrived in 2006. The Packers have seen the ‘under’ go 7-3 during this span and only three of those games were played at Lambeau Field. In those three wins and easy covers, the Pack only allowed 23 points.


Philadelphia – Similar to McCarthy, Andy Reid was a great coach after the bye but he’s long gone in Philly and so is Chip Kelly, who was let go last year. That leaves us with the rookie Doug Pederson and it will be interesting to see if the unbeaten Eagles lose any momentum this Sunday when they visit Detroit.


Halftime Tendencies


The Vikings, Broncos and Titans have all seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 in the second-half this season, which is attributed to great defensive efforts. The production from Denver and Minnesota isn’t surprising, but Tennessee has only surrendered 35 points in the final 30 minutes of its first four games and that number shrinks to just 14 if you take away three defensive and special team scores.


Knowing Atlanta has watched the ‘over’ start 4-0, it shouldn’t be surprising to know that it’s 7-1 to the ‘over’ in all of its halftime wagers.


The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the second-half for both the Raiders and Redskins. Those results have been attributed to poor defensive numbers, with Washington (413 YPG) and Oakland (460 YPG) ranked 29th and 32nd in total defense.


AFC meets NFC


The ‘under’ was a great investment last season in non-conference games as it went 41-21-2 (66%). The pendulum has slowly swung the other way in the 2016 campaign with the ‘over’ starting 11-7 (61%) in the first four weeks.


There are six non-conference games set for Sunday and these are tough handicaps because these clubs haven’t met since 2012 due to the alternating schedules in the NFL.


Houston at Minnesota: Hard to make an argument for the ‘over’ (40 ½) in this game. They both enter with identical 3-1 ‘under’ records and neither team likes to play fast. The Minnesota defense has been lights out against quality QBs and it’s hard to imagine Brock Osweiler doing much better on the road. First team to 20 might be the winner here.


Washington at Baltimore: This “Beltway Series” total could be argued either way because Washington’s defense isn’t very good (413 YPG 28 PPG) and Baltimore (256 YPG, 18 PPG) boasts one of the better groups in the league. The Redskins have seen the ‘over’ go 4-0 yet this is the lowest total (45) they’ve seen posted this season and that alone makes me hesitant to lean high.


Chicago at Indianapolis: Seems like a high total (48) knowing the Bears are the only team in the NFL to be held under 20 in each of their first four games. However, the Colts have allowed 30-plus points in three of their first four. Hoyer has actually played well (69%, 4 TDs, 0 INTs) for the Bears but John Fox has the team playing super slow to protect its beat-up defense.

Atlanta at Denver: When offense meets defense, the latter usually comes out on top. Will that be the case on Sunday? Atlanta’s numbers are off the charts offensively but its defense is very suspect and unfortunately for them, Denver’s defense is great. Dating back to 2015, the Broncos have allowed 13.4 PPG in seven matchups against NFC foes.


Buffalo at Los Angeles: This is the lowest total on the board (39) and hard to disagree with the number. Both clubs have each played in a couple shootouts, but I would consider those outcomes anomalies and still lean to the low side in this spot. We’ve had two totals close in the thirties this season and the ‘under’ cashed easily in both games.


Cincinnati at Dallas: Despite playing a rookie at QB, the Dallas offense (395 YPG) is ranked second on total yards and 10th in points (25.2 PPG). The Bengals defense is a major test and the return of linebacker Vontaze Burfict last week helped the team only allow one touchdown. Cincinnati’s offense has 18 scores, unfortunately 12 of them are field goals. Not having tight end Tyler Eifert healthy has certainly hurt the Bengals in the red zone.

Divisional Matchups


Arizona and San Francisco played Thursday and it looked like an ‘under’ winner with the scored knotted 7-7 at half but the pair combined for 40 in the second and the ‘over’ (42 ½) connected.

San Diego at Oakland: This will be the only divisional matchup on Sunday and it’s also happens to have the highest total for Week 5. The ‘under’ has gone 4-2 the last six encounters but that run could likely end at the Coliseum this Sunday. The Chargers (30.2 PPG) and Raiders (27 PPG) have both put up eye-opening offensive numbers this season and neither is stout defensively. The trend that makes me lean ‘over’ in this spot is Oakland’s defensive tendencies off a win. Dating back to last season, the team is allowing 30.5 PPG after a victory and they just beat Baltimore 28-27 last Sunday on the road.


Tampa Bay at Carolina: (See Below)


Under the Lights


Including this past Thursday’s matchup between the Cardinals and 49ers, total bettors have seen the ‘over’ go 7-6-1 in primetime games this season.


N.Y. Giants at Green Bay: Tough scheduling spot for the Giants, who are playing consecutive road games in primetime spots. New York’s offense (18.2 PPG) hasn’t found any rhythm under new coach Ben McAdoo, which is surprising since they put up 26.2 PPG last season with him as the offensive coordinator. Even though QB Eli Manning hasn’t been sharp, the Giants have averaged 34.3 PPG in their last four versus G-Bay and he’s tossed 10 touchdowns during this span. Green Bay’s offense (25 PPG) hasn’t been exactly stellar this season either but they showed their muscle versus Detroit (34-27) in Week 3. Make a note of the strong bye trends (see above) for the Packers in this matchup.

Tampa Bay at Carolina: After QB Cam Newton was ruled ‘out on Saturday, oddsmakers sent out an opener of 44 ½. With a healthy Newton last season, the Panthers blasted the Buccaneers twice (37-23, 38-10) and the ‘over’ cashed in each game. Prior to those games, the ‘under’ was on a 3-0 run. Make a note that all three NFC South divisional matchups this season have gone ‘over’ the number, directly attributed to Atlanta’s total record.


Fearless Predictions


We had our first losing week of the season albeit 20 cents ($20). Through four weeks, the bankroll ($260) remains in the black and that’s the goal. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: New York-Green Bay 47 ½


Best Under: New England-Cleveland 47


Best Team Total: Over 26 ½ Indianapolis

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 38 ½ New York-Green Bay
Over 39 Chicago-Indianapolis
Under 54 Cincinnati-Dallas

 

[CNOTES]

Pick Six - Week 5
October 7, 2016


Week 4 Record: 1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS


Overall Record: 12-12 SU, 10-14 ATS


Review: U-G-L-Y. That’s what Week 4 turned out to be with the underdog Jets, 49ers, and Buccaneers all losing at home. Atlanta was the lone winner with its shootout victory over Carolina, as we turn the page to Week 5.


Texans at Vikings (-6 ½, 40) – 1:00 PM EST


Houston
Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1


Houston continues to win at home, improving to 3-0 at NRG Stadium after holding off Tennessee last week, 27-20 as four-point favorites. Rookie Will Fuller’s 67-yard punt return for a touchdown broke a 20-20 third quarter tie, while the Texans have yet to allow a touchdown in the second half at home this season. However, Houston has yet to win on the road as the Texans were blanked at New England in Week 3 by a 27-0 count. The Texans posted a 3-4 ATS mark as a road underdog last season, while grabbing an upset as 10-point underdogs at Cincinnati last November.


Minnesota
Record: 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS, 3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1


In spite of losing their starting quarterback and running back, the Vikings keep clicking and remain one of the league’s two unbeaten teams. The Vikings tripped up the Giants on Monday night, 24-10 as 3 ½-point home favorites as Minnesota has allowed only 50 points in four games. Since losing at San Francisco in the 2015 season opener, the Vikings have compiled a remarkable 18-2 ATS record in the past 20 contests, including an 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS mark at home.


Best Bet: Houston +6 ½


Patriots (-10 ½, 47) at Browns – 1:00 PM EST


New England
Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 4/1


The Patriots survived the first four weeks without Tom Brady, as the star quarterback returns following his suspension for Deflategate. Brady and the offense try to get on track after suffering a 16-0 shutout to the Bills in Week 3 as a 3 ½-point favorite, as New England was limited to below 300 yards offensively. The defense lifted New England during Brady’s ban by allowing 21 points or less in three of those contests, resulting in a 3-1 mark to the UNDER. The Patriots have struggled the last two seasons as a road favorite, compiling a 3-10 ATS record, including a 1-6 ATS run the past seven in this situation.


Cleveland
Record: 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS, 3-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 5000/1


The Browns haven’t received many breaks this season, but are creeping closer towards picking up that elusive first victory. One week after falling in overtime at Miami, Cleveland erased an early 14-0 deficit at Washington to take a 20-17 fourth quarter lead. However, the Redskins scored the final two touchdowns as the Browns failed to cash as 7 ½-point underdogs in a 31-20 defeat. Cleveland returns to FirstEnergy Stadium for its second home game this season after blowing a 20-0 advantage in a 25-20 defeat to Baltimore in Week 2 as four-point ‘dogs. Last season, the Browns posted a 1-3 ATS mark as a double-digit underdog, as Cleveland faces New England for the first time since a 27-26 loss at Gillette Stadium as 9 ½-point ‘dogs in 2013.


Best Bet: Cleveland +10 ½


Redskins at Ravens (-4, 45) – 1:00 PM EST


Washington
Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 4-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1


The battle of the Beltway takes place for the first time since 2012 when the Redskins knocked off the Ravens in overtime, 31-28. Washington has erased an 0-2 start by picking up consecutive victories over the Giants and Browns to reach the .500 mark. Quarterback Kirk Cousins topped the 300-yard mark in each of Washington’s two losses, but has thrown five touchdowns and been intercepted just once in the last two wins. Since the beginning of 2015, the Redskins have produced a solid 10-6 ATS record as an underdog, but Washington owns an 0-4 SU/ATS mark as a road ‘dog under Jay Gruden against AFC opponents.


Baltimore
Record: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1


The Ravens suffered their first loss of the season last Sunday in a 28-27 setback to the Raiders as 3 ½-point favorites. Baltimore overcame a 14-3 deficit to take a 27-21 lead in the final minutes, but the Raiders came out on top thanks to Michael Crabtree’s third touchdown catch of the day. The Ravens have not been a productive home favorite since 2015 by compiling a 2-7-1 ATS mark in the past 10 games at M&T Bank Stadium when laying points. Joe Flacco has won six of his last seven home games against NFC foes since 2012, but Baltimore is 2-2-1 ATS in this situation as a favorite.


Best Bet: Washington +4


Falcons at Broncos (-6, 47) – 4:05 PM EST


Atlanta
Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 4-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1


Following an opening week loss to Tampa Bay, the Falcons have roared back with three consecutive victories to take over first place in the NFC South. Atlanta won only one divisional game last season, but the Falcons have doubled that total in the last 13 days with victories over the Saints and Panthers. Atlanta dropped 45 points on New Orleans in Week 3, but put up 48 points in a 48-33 triumph over the defending NFC champions last week. Matt Ryan torched Carolina’s defense for 503 yards and four touchdowns, including 300 of those yards to wide receiver Julio Jones. The Falcons continue to cash as an underdog under Dan Quinn by owning a fantastic 8-2 SU/ATS record when receiving points since 2015.


Denver
Record: 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS, 3-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1


The defending Super Bowl champions haven’t skipped a beat this season by winning their first four games. Since rallying past Carolina in Week 1, the Broncos have won each of their past three contests by double-digits each, including a 27-7 blowout of Tampa Bay last Sunday. Quarterback Trevor Siemian left last week’s victory with a shoulder injury, but the former Northwestern standout is expected to start on Sunday. The Broncos have struggled as a home favorite since last October, posting a 1-5-1 ATS mark in the last seven in this role with the lone win coming against the Colts in Week 2.

Best Bet: Denver -6


Bills at Rams (-2, 39 ½) – 4:25 PM EST


Buffalo
Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1


The Bills have rebounded from an 0-2 start to pick up victories the last two weeks against the Cardinals and Patriots in the underdog role. Buffalo pitched a 16-0 shutout of New England in Week 4 as the Bills’ offense put up 378 yards, including 246 yards through the air from Tyrod Taylor. The defense has held three of its four opponents to 18 points or less, while both road games have finished UNDER the total. Buffalo has covered in three of five opportunities as a road underdog of three points or less since last season, but the Bills have lost each of their past two road games against NFC opponents.


Los Angeles
Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1


The biggest September turnaround took place in Southern California as the Rams rebounded from an ugly shutout loss at San Francisco to win three straight games. The Rams own an impressive 2-0 division record following victories over the Seahawks and Cardinals, two playoff teams from last season. Los Angeles has been outgained in all four games this season, but own a +8 turnover margin during its three-game winning streak. Under Jeff Fisher, the Rams have compiled an 8-11 ATS mark in the role of a favorite, while being favored at the Coliseum for the first time since their move to Los Angeles.


Best Bet: Buffalo +2


Bengals (-1, 45) at Cowboys – 4:25 PM EST


Cincinnati
Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1


The Bengals avoided a 1-3 start by beating the Dolphins last Thursday night, 22-7 to reach the .500 mark. Cincinnati scored six times, but found the end zone only once as A.J. Green hauled in 10 receptions for 173 yards and the Bengals’ only touchdown. The offense has been productive from a yardage standpoint, but in two games they have been limited to one touchdown. Since the start of last season, Cincinnati has been nearly automatic away from Paul Brown Stadium by cashing in nine of the past 10 road games.


Dallas
Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1


The Cowboys have rebounded nicely since a one-point loss in the season opener to the Giants by winning three consecutive games. Dallas hasn’t faced great quarterbacks in the last two weeks (Brian Hoyer and Blaine Gabbert), but the Cowboys managed to pull off victories in the favorite role against Chicago and San Francisco. The Cowboys hope to get wide receiver Dez Bryant back on the field after missing last week’s game with a knee injury. Dallas is facing its first AFC foe this season, as the Cowboys dropped three of four interconference games last season, but all three losses were without quarterback Tony Romo.

Best Bet: Cincinnati -1

 

[CNOTES]

SNF - Giants at Packers
October 7, 2016


Odell Beckham says he isn't having fun anymore and that goes double for Giants bettors as they've failed to cover the spread in their last three. They'll try to shake the funk as 7-point underdogs at Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers, a venue the New York Giants have had some of their most historical wins.


The Packers come off a bye, which has been a good situation for them in the past, but despite their 2-1 straight up and against the spread record, it's hard not to scratch the head wondering what's going with their offense.


They're ranked No. 29 in the NFL averaging only 293.7 yards-per-game -- just 193.3 of that from the passing game. It's only three games, but it's still cause for concern.But what are statistics worth? Because the Giants have the No. 6 ranked offense statistically (382.3 ypg) and they don't look all that spectacular.


LINE MOVEMENT


Back In May when CG Technology sports books in Las Vegas posted point-spreads on ever regular season game, the opened the Packers -8 for this one. On Sunday night the Westgate SuperBook opened the Packers -7 and on Thursday, Giants money pushed it briefly to -6.5, but soon settled on -7 (EVEN) where it's been since Friday afternoon. Most books around town are split with 7-flat and -7 (EV). The total has dropped from 48.5 to 47.5.

TOTAL STORY


Three of the Giants four games have stayed 'under' the total with an average score of 18-to-21. Two of the Packers games have gone 'over' as they've averaged a 25-22 score.


BETTER GIANTS DEFENSE?


The Giants had the worst defense in the NFL last season, statistically -- even worse than the Saints if you can believe that, but they rank No. 11 this season. After allowing 420 yards per game last season, through four games this year they've allowed only 346 YPG. However, they don't have any interceptions and have recovered only one fumble. Only Detroit's defense has been as equally un-opportunistic. The Giants also have only four sacks on the season which is tied with Atlanta for the NFL's worst attack.

TURNOVER RATIO


The Giants have a minus-8 turnover ratio while the Packers are at zero. The only team with a worse ratio than the Giants is the Jets at minus-11. The best team is the Vikings (+10) who added to that total last week against the Giants.


LAST WEEK


The Giants had plenty of supporters at the bet window on Monday Night Football for their game at Minnesota. The spread fell from Vikings -5 to -3.5 by kickoff. But it was clear after a few series that if holding a Giants ticket that you were on the wrong side. The Vikings held the ball for over 35 minutes and turned a 14-3 halftime lead into a 24-10 win. The Giants converted only 2-of-12 (16%) third down conversions.


The Packers know first-hand about how tough a road game at Minnesota can be as they lost 17-14 to the Vikings in Week 2. Before their Week 4 bye, they beat the Lions, 34-27, barely covering the final spread of -6. At one point in the game they were up 31-3. The Packers had been -7.5 and -7 for most of the week so the books had a big middle paying out early sharp plays at +7.5, handing back cash at a +7 push, and then paying out lots of public game-day parlays on the Packers at -6.


WHAT TEAM IS BEING BET MOST?


William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada had 60 percent of all tickets written on the spread taking the Packers while 61 percent of all cash taken has been on the Giants. Expect more Packer backers on game day throwing them in their parlays. Plus-seven still seems like an attractive number for the wise guys, but most of the public remembers what they saw last on Monday night and will either stay away, try the total or take the Packers.


RECENT MEETINGS


The Giants have covered the last four meetings, the last coming in a Giants 27-13 home win in 2013 as 3.5-point favorites. The last time the two teams played in Lambeau Field was after the 2011 regular season in the divisional playoffs with the Giants winning 37-20 as eight-point underdogs. The Giants would go to win the Super Bowl. In that same season, the Packers won 38-35 as 7-point road favorites at New York. Five of past seven meetings have gone 'over' including the NFC Championship game in 2008,a 23-20 Giants win at Lambeau which the Giants would parlay into a Super Bowl win two weeks later.


TRENDS


-- Giants 0-6-1 ATS last seven road games facing team with winning home record.
-- Giants 1-5 ATS last six games coming off a loss.


-- Packers 10-3 ATS last 13 games following bye week.
-- Packers 'under' 9-1 last 10 games following a win.
-- Packers 'under' 7-1 last eight home games.


DIVISION ODDS


The Packers remain 5/7 favorites to win the NFC North, but charging hard on their heels is the Vikings at 11/10 odds. Minnesota was a 5/2 choice before the season started. The Bears and Lions are both at 35/1 odds.


The Giants came into the season as the 11/5 second choice to win the NFC East, but are now third at 7/2 odds. Philadelphia is the 17/10 favorite followed by Dallas at 9/5. At the bottom is Washington at 5/1.


SUPER BOWL ODDS


Green Bay opened in February at 10/1 (Bet $100 to win $1,000) to win the Super Bowl, tied for the lowest number by an NFC team with the Cardinals. They are now at 6/1 odds. Only the Patriots at 4/1 odds have lower odds. The Giants are still sitting at 40/1, the same number many bettors had when they won their last Super Bowl.


WESTGATE GIANTS/PACKERS PROPS


-- Total completions by Eli Manning: 24.5
-- Total TD passes by Eli Manning: 1.5
-- Total receiving yards by Odell Beckham: 88.5
-- Total passing yards by Aaron Rodgers:265.5
-- Will Jordy Nelson score a TD? YES -140/NO +120
-- Total QB sacks by both teams: 2.5
-- Total points by Giants: 20.5
-- Total points by Packers: 28


NEXT WEEK


The Westgate posts their early lines for the following week on Tuesday's and set Week 6 with the Giants -3 (EV) at home against the Ravens and the Packers 6.5-point home favorites over the Cowboys.


Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 12 years.