Cnotes 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[CNOTES]

NFL
Short Sheet


Week 6


Thurs – Oct. 13


Denver at San Diego, 8:25 PM ET
Denver: 8-1 ATS in road games in games played on a grass field
San Diego: 8-19 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses




Sun – Oct. 14


Cincinnati at New England, 1:00 PM ET
Cincinnati: 19-34 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half
New England: 6-0 ATS in home games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game

Baltimore at NY Giants, 1:00 PM ET
Baltimore: 43-26 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
New York: 12-26 ATS after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game

Carolina at New Orleans, 1:00 PM ET
Carolina: 33-16 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games
New Orleans: 7-20 ATS off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less

Pittsburgh at Miami, 1:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh: 37-19 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game
Miami: 1-9 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game


Jacksonville at Chicago, 1:00 PM ET
Jacksonville: 10-2 OVER in road games in games played on a grass field
Chicago: 6-16 ATS in home games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game


San Francisco at Buffalo, 1:00 PM ET
San Francisco: 1-7 ATS after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game
Buffalo: 6-1 ATS after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game

LA Rams at Detroit, 1:00 PM ET
Los Angeles: 15-44 ATS after allowing 150 or less passing yards in their last game
Detroit: 14-4 ATS after being outgained by 100 or more total yds 2 consecutive games

Cleveland at Tennessee, 1:00 PM ET
Cleveland: 19-7 UNDER after 5 or more consecutive losses
Tennessee: 3-13 ATS in home games


Philadelphia at Washington, 1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia: 12-2 OVER after 1 or more consecutive losses
Washington: 28-48 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49


Kansas City at Oakland, 4:05 PM ET
Kansas City: 10-2 ATS in road games off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more
Oakland: 8-19 ATS in home games after a win by 6 or less points


Atlanta at Seattle, 4:25 PM ET
Atlanta: 9-2 ATS as an underdog
Seattle: 8-19 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest

Dallas at Green Bay, 4:25 PM ET
Dallas: 6-17 ATS after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games
Green Bay: 14-2 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games

Indianapolis at Houston, 8:30 PM ET
Indianapolis: 16-4 ATS in road games after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games
Houston: 6-0 OVER in October games




Mon – Oct. 17


NY Jets at Arizona, 8:30 PM ET
New York: 32-17 UNDER after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game
Arizona: 1-11 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 6




Thursday's game
Broncos (4-1) @ Chargers (1-4)— Denver coach Kubiak (migraines) is out for this game, which is bigger problem than usual since he calls plays; QB Siemian is expected back after missing a game. Broncos won nine of last ten series games, winning last five in row, all by 7+ points- they’ve won their last five visits here. San Diego is 1-4 despite scoring 30.4 pts/game; all four of their losses are by 4 or less points or in OT. Chargers turned ball over 10 times in last three games; five of last six TDs they allowed were on drives of less than 50 yards. Denver is 5-1-1 in last seven games as a road favorite; last 8+ years, San Diego is 5-9 as a home dog. Over is 4-1 in Charger games, 3-2 in Denver games. Chargers are allowing 20.6 second half pts/game.




-----------------------------




NFL
Dunkel


Week 6


Thursday, October 13


Denver @ San Diego


Game 103-104
October 13, 2016 @ 8:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Denver
134.731
San Diego
133.375
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 1 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 3 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(+3 1/2); Over




-----------------------------------------

NFL Week 6 lines that make you go hmmm...


Colin Kaepernick takes over under center for the 49ers but will that matter when San Fran comes to Buffalo in Week 6?


Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmmm…” in Week 6:


Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+3, 45)


The first twist of Week 6 comes on Thursday night. Denver is at San Diego where the Chargers have been downright brutal to their faithful. Throw out Denver’s last game as it didn’t have its starting quarterback ready to go. But what I see here is a pretty stereotypical, mass following trend of going Over on a marquee game.


In typical fashion, the tip-off was the initial move lower than the opening 46. I’ve see this a million times. This is a sure bet that money will fly on the Over as soon as Nevada parlay cards are printed and carved into stone. Every week, I suggest to the Nevada sportsbooks to pump up the favorites and totals on Thursday, Sunday and Monday night games.


But this 45 looks suspect. With all due respect for Denver’s defense, San Diego’s lowest total output this season has been 48 points. The other scores landed 65, 69, 52, and 60. Before last game, the Broncos were scoring at an even 30 points per game. The Chargers will be in full crisis mode on national TV and should provide some fireworks. Denver will keep pace. This looks to go Over so take this as early as you can because this is only going one way come kickoff.


Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-6, 46)


This is another game that I think oddsmakers were a little light with the total. Before last game, Atlanta’s game scores hit 55, 63, 77 and 81. Now, that’s a trend I like to see especially when the opposition is starting to crank on offense as well.


Both quarterbacks are in sync, especially Ryan who has thrown 12 TDs and only two interceptions to date. His 121.6 rating is hard to overlook. We know Seattle can go toe-to-toe with anyone and these two teams suggest a high-powered, open-game strategy. Eight of Atlanta’s 11 different receivers are averaging in double-digit yards per catch.


I would have had this total around 50 but if the sportsbook gods believe this is lower, I think they’re playing with fire. If you like it, take the Over early in a game that should be a fun one to watch.


San Francisco at Buffalo Bills (-8, 44)


Speaking of trends that I like to see, you can only read the San Francisco-Buffalo one way. San Francisco is going through its predicted meltdown and we get a quarterback change before the upcoming game in Orchard Park, with Colin Kaepernick starting over Blaine Gabbert. As a longtime resident of the Buffalo area, I know the winds can play havoc on the passing game and this is where I see the margin come into play.


Buffalo has been winning with the run game and as long as QB Taylor doesn’t lose the game, the team is gelling nicely into a well-balanced offensive threat. Their defense will be stronger with the return of DT Marcell Dareus and the momentum of three straight wins spilling over to a home field spells nothing but dominance against a troubling San Francisco team.


San Francisco will be forced to play long ball when it gets behind and this is where Buffalo’s defense and special teams will shine. If the Niners change quarterbacks during the game, this may cause even more stagnation. Especially if any non-football related matters come into play.


Frankly speaking, ride the team that’s doing well, equipped with the momentum and one that will be looking at a game they consider a “must-win”. San Francisco will have its day but the red flags are flying all around this team for now. Nothing points to a San Francisco turnaround this Sunday.


New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5, 47)


Both the Jets and Cardinals are vastly underperforming. Arizona just doesn’t look ready to go and, coupled with the fact that Carson Palmer won’t be at 100 percent if playing at all, the Cardinals are unable to get out of their own way just yet.


We all know the Jets are not as bad as their record suggests but a deeper look may reveal that their 1-4 start may be justified. New York has lost to Pittsburgh, Seattle, Cincinnati and Kansas City: not exactly your cellar dwellers of the league. Arizona beat San Francisco and Tampa Bay, not exactly the league’s elite. Getting +7.5 with a semi-quality team that has to be thinking “must-win” at this point seems like a steal. Bettors like to see motivated teams on the slate going into battle with their money.


The Jets have capable players and should get a better game out of QB Fitzpatrick. The track will be fast in Arizona and we’re expecting the Jets offense to click and keep pace with whatever Arizona has to offer - especially if Drew Stanton is the signal caller for the Cardinals. If you like the Jets, get the hook while you can and have a sweat on Monday night.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL TRENDS


Money Line


8:30 pm 10/17/2016
(277) NY JETS @(278) ARIZONA
Play AGAINST ARIZONA using the money line in Home games against AFC East division opponents.
The record is 3 Wins and 9 Losses since 1992 (-14.9 units)
BET NOW!


4:25 pm 10/16/2016
(271) ATLANTA @(272) SEATTLE
Play ON ATLANTA using the money line in All games as an underdog.
The record is 9 Wins and 2 Losses for the last two seasons (+10.15 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 10/16/2016
(257) PITTSBURGH @(258) MIAMI
Play ON PITTSBURGH using the money line in All games in weeks 5 through 9.
The record is 77 Wins and 30 Losses since 1992 (+41.85 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 10/16/2016
(251) CINCINNATI @(252) NEW ENGLAND
Play AGAINST CINCINNATI using the money line in All games against AFC East division opponents.
The record is 15 Wins and 35 Losses since 1992 (-30.75 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 10/16/2016
(251) CINCINNATI @(252) NEW ENGLAND
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using the money line in All games in games played on turf.
The record is 28 Wins and 4 Losses for the last three seasons (+21.8 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 10/16/2016
(255) CAROLINA @(256) NEW ORLEANS
Play ON NEW ORLEANS using the money line in Home games when playing against a team with a losing record.
The record is 36 Wins and 35 Losses since 1992 (-56.25 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 10/16/2016
(255) CAROLINA @(256) NEW ORLEANS
Play ON CAROLINA using the money line in Road games when playing against a team with a losing record.
The record is 8 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+10.6 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 10/16/2016
(265) CLEVELAND @(266) TENNESSEE
Play AGAINST CLEVELAND using the money line in All games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 2 Wins and 14 Losses for the last two seasons (-13.9 units)
BET NOW!


8:25 pm 10/13/2016
(103) DENVER @(104) SAN DIEGO
Play ON DENVER using the money line in All games in games where the money line is +130 to -150.
The record is 9 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+8.8 units)
BET NOW!


8:25 pm 10/13/2016
(103) DENVER @(104) SAN DIEGO
Play ON DENVER using the money line in Road games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.9 units)
BET NOW!


-------------------------------------

NFL TRENDS


Half Time



1:00 pm 10/16/2016
(263) LA RAMS @(264) DETROIT
Play ON LA RAMS in the first half in All games as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 19 Wins and 5 Losses for the last three seasons (+13.5 units)
BET NOW!


8:25 pm 10/13/2016
(103) DENVER @(104) SAN DIEGO
Play ON DENVER in the first half in Road games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+8.9 units)
BET NOW!


----------------------------


NFL TRENDS


ATS




8:30 pm 10/17/2016
(277) NY JETS @(278) ARIZONA
Play AGAINST ARIZONA against the spread in All games as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points.
The record is 1 Wins and 11 Losses since 1992 (-11.1 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 10/16/2016
(257) PITTSBURGH @(258) MIAMI
Play AGAINST MIAMI against the spread in All games against conference opponents.
The record is 3 Wins and 13 Losses for the last two seasons (-11.3 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 10/16/2016
(265) CLEVELAND @(266) TENNESSEE
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games against conference opponents.
The record is 2 Wins and 12 Losses for the last two seasons (-11.2 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 10/16/2016
(265) CLEVELAND @(266) TENNESSEE
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games against conference opponents.
The record is 4 Wins and 21 Losses for the last three seasons (-19.1 units)
BET NOW!


--------------------------------


NFL TRENDS


Over




1:00 pm 10/16/2016
(263) LA RAMS @(264) DETROIT
Play OVER DETROIT on the total in Home games against conference opponents.
The record is 7 Overs and 0 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 10/16/2016
(261) SAN FRANCISCO @(262) BUFFALO
Play OVER BUFFALO on the total in All games against NFC West division opponents.
The record is 23 Overs and 7 Unders since 1992 (+15.3 units)
BET NOW!


-----------------------------------


NFL TRENDS


Under




4:25 pm 10/16/2016
(271) ATLANTA @(272) SEATTLE
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the total in All games in weeks 5 through 9.
The record is 0 Overs and 10 Unders for the last three seasons (+10 units)
BET NOW!


4:25 pm 10/16/2016
(271) ATLANTA @(272) SEATTLE
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the total in Road games when playing with 6 or less days rest.
The record is 2 Overs and 13 Unders for the last three seasons (+10.8 units)
BET NOW!


------------------------

NFL TRENDS


Teasers




1:00 pm 10/16/2016
(253) BALTIMORE @(254) NY GIANTS
Play ON BALTIMORE using a teaser in All games as a road underdog of 3 or less in a 6 point teaser.
The record is 39 Wins and 3 Losses since 1992 (+35.7 units)
BET NOW!

 

[CNOTES]

NFL POWER LINES


NFL Power Line ratings are calculated using both teams' ratings and home field advantage. The Top Power Lines tool offers a way to view and compare current Power Lines in one simple report, as well as the Power Line Edge, where the Power Line differs significantly from the current betting line.


8:25 pm 10/13/2016
(103) DENVER @(104) SAN DIEGO
Play Line: DENVER -3
BTB PowerLine: DENVER -7
Edge On: DENVER 4


1:00 pm 10/16/2016
(261) SAN FRANCISCO @(262) BUFFALO
Play Line: BUFFALO -8
BTB PowerLine: BUFFALO -14
Edge On: BUFFALO 6


1:00 pm 10/16/2016
(257) PITTSBURGH @(258) MIAMI
Play Line: PITTSBURGH -7.5
BTB PowerLine: PITTSBURGH -12
Edge On: PITTSBURGH 4.5


1:00 pm 10/16/2016
(259) JACKSONVILLE @(260) CHICAGO
Play Line: CHICAGO -3
BTB PowerLine: CHICAGO -5
Edge On: CHICAGO 2


1:00 pm 10/16/2016
(255) CAROLINA @(256) NEW ORLEANS
Play Line: CAROLINA -3
BTB PowerLine: CAROLINA -7
Edge On: CAROLINA 4


1:00 pm 10/16/2016
(251) CINCINNATI @(252) NEW ENGLAND
Play Line: CINCINNATI 9
BTB PowerLine: CINCINNATI +5
Edge On: CINCINNATI 4


1:00 pm 10/16/2016
(265) CLEVELAND @(266) TENNESSEE
Play Line: CLEVELAND 7
BTB PowerLine: CLEVELAND +3
Edge On: CLEVELAND 4


1:00 pm 10/16/2016
(253) BALTIMORE @(254) NY GIANTS
Play Line: BALTIMORE 3
BTB PowerLine: BALTIMORE +0
Edge On: BALTIMORE 3


4:05 pm 10/16/2016
(269) KANSAS CITY @(270) OAKLAND
Play Line: KANSAS CITY 1
BTB PowerLine: KANSAS CITY -5
Edge On: KANSAS CITY 6


8:30 pm 10/16/2016
(275) INDIANAPOLIS @(276) HOUSTON
Play Line: HOUSTON -3
BTB PowerLine: HOUSTON -8
Edge On: HOUSTON 5

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel


Week 6


Sunday, October 16


Indianapolis @ Houston


Game 275-276
October 16, 2016 @ 8:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
131.450
Houston
132.255
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 3 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+3 1/2); Under


Dallas @ Green Bay


Game 273-274
October 16, 2016 @ 4:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
131.525
Green Bay
140.035
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 7 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 4
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-4); Under


Atlanta @ Seattle


Game 271-272
October 16, 2016 @ 4:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
134.332
Seattle
144.869
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 10 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 6
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-6); Over


Kansas City @ Oakland


Game 269-270
October 16, 2016 @ 4:05 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
134.096
Oakland
130.551
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 3 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 1
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+1); Over


Philadelphia @ Washington


Game 267-268
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
133.830
Washington
135.847
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 2 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+2 1/2); Over


Cleveland @ Tennessee


Game 265-266
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
124.054
Tennessee
128.037
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 4
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 7 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+7 1/2); Over


Los Angeles @ Detroit


Game 263-264
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Los Angeles
128.273
Detroit
135.040
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 7
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-3); Under


San Francisco @ Buffalo


Game 261-262
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
132.085
Buffalo
137.169
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 5
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 8
44
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+8); Over


Jacksonville @ Chicago


Game 259-260
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
127.368
Chicago
125.412
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 2 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+2 1/2); Under


Pittsburgh @ Miami


Game 257-258
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
136.266
Miami
130.824
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 5 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 8
48
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+8); Under


Carolina @ New Orleans


Game 255-256
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
135.371
New Orleans
128.371
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 6 1/2
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
No Total
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-3); N/A


Baltimore @ NY Giants


Game 253-254
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
127.054
NY Giants
131.502
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 4 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(-3); Over


Cincinnati @ New England


Game 251-252
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
132.255
New England
138.701
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 6 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 9
47
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+9); Over




Monday, October 17


NY Jets @ Arizona


Game 277-278
October 17, 2016 @ 8:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
131.038
Arizona
136.955
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 6
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 9
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+9); Over

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 6


Sunday's games


Bengals (2-3) @ Patriots (4-1)— Brady returned LW with 406 passing yards, three TDs in an easy win; 13-7-3 in last 23 games as a home favorite. Cincinnati got spanked in Dallas LW, giving up 180 rushing yards in game that was 28-0 in 4th quarter; Bengals are just 20-66 on 3rd down; they’re 13-6-3 in last 22 games as a road underdog, 0-1 this year. Patriots won five of last six series games, with last four wins by 14+ points; Bengals lost last six visits to Foxboro- their last win here was in 1980. AFC East teams are 7-7 vs spread outside their division, 0-2 as home favorites. NFC North teams are 7-9 vs spread in non-division tilts, 1-3 as an underdog. Under is 4-1 in New England games this season, 3-1 in Bengals’ last four games.


Ravens (3-2) @ Giants (2-3)— Both teams struggling; Baltimore fired OC Trestman Monday, after scoring 8 TDs with 8 turnovers in first five games, all of which were decided by 6 or less points- they’re 11-45 on 3rd down in last three games. Former Lions HC Mornhinweg takes over as OC. Ravens are 2-0 on road, winning by 5 at Cleveland, 2 at Jacksonville. Giants lost last three games, scoring two TDs on 22 drives in last two games; they’re 1-1 at home, with two games decided by total of 5 points. Ravens won four of last five series games, with three of four wins by 19+ points. Under is 4-1 in Giant games, 3-2 in Baltimore games. Ravens are 6-1 in last seven games as a road dog; they’re underdog for first time this year. Giants are 2-5 in last seven games as a home favorite.

Panthers (1-4) @ Saints (1-3)— Carolina traveling on short week after ugly loss Monday, where they were -4 in turnovers, still only lost on last play of game. Panthers allowed 34.5 pts/game in losing first two road games; they’re 5-11 in last 16 games as a road favorite, 0-2 this year. Saints lost six of last eight games with Carolina, who won three of last four visits here. Road underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in NO games this year; over last 7+ years, Saints are 3-1 as home underdogs. Favorites are 6-0-1 vs spread in Saints’ last eight post-bye games, with NO losing 24-23/24-6 in last two post-bye tilts, after winning five in row. New Orleans is 7-11-3 in last 21 games where spread was 3 or less points; Carolina is 6-2 in last eight such games.

Steelers (4-1) @ Dolphins (1-4)— Will probably be more Steeler fans than Miami fans here; in last two games, Dolphins have run only 84 plays for 422 yards, their opponents 139 plays for 761 yards. Miami is -9 in turnovers (2-11) in its last four games. All four Steeler wins are by 8+ points; Pitt has 10 TDs on 21 drives in last two games- over last 8+ years, they’re 12-21-1 as a road favorite. Home side lost last three series games; Steelers won last three visits here and five of last six overall in series- last tine they lost here was 1998. Three of last four Miami games went over total, under is 3-1 in last four Steeler games. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 7-9 vs spread in non-divisional games. Dolphins are 2-3 in last five games as a road underdog.


Jaguars (1-3) @ Bears (1-4)— Jaguars had rough bye week after hurricane pounded their town last week; they’ve covered five of last six post-bye games. Jax is 6-11-1 in last 18 games as a road underdog, 0-1 this year- they beat Colts in London in last game- three of their four games this year went over total. Jags are 9-17 in last 26 games where spread was 3 or less points. Chicago racked up 532 yards in 29-23 loss at Indy LW, but scored only one TD in three trips to red zone- they scored 17 or less points in four of five games. Hoyer threw for 397 yards LW, 9.2 yards/attempt; Bears are 8-22-3 in last 23 games where spread was 3 or less. NFC North teams are 7-6 vs spread outside the division, 2-2 as home favorite. AFC South teams are 7-8, 2-3 as road underdogs.


49ers (1-4) @ Bills (3-2)— Kaepernick gets first start of year at QB for 49ers after their 4th loss in row LW; he gives them more mobility, little more of a deep passing threat, but is less accurate on short passes. Niners allowed 83 points in losing both its road games- they’re 3-10 in last 13 games as a road underdog, 0-2 this year. Buffalo won its last three games after an 0-2 start; they’re +9 in turnovers for year, +8 in last three games. Bills scored 30+ points in three of last four games, running ball for 178.3 yds/game in three games since they changed OCs- they’ve scored a defensive TD in three of last four games. Buffalo is 3-2 as home favorite under Ryan, 0-1 this year. 49ers won last two series games 10-3/45-3; they’ve split four visits here.


Rams (3-2) @ Lions (2-3)— Underdogs are 5-0 vs spread this year in Detroit games, 4-1 in LA’s games. Lions are 4-3 in last seven series games, but lost 21-14 in St Louis LY, when they didn’t have a play in game longer than 18 yards. Rams lost five of last seven visits to Motor City; they won last two road games by total of 9 points- this is their first game on artificial turf this season. LA is 7-6-1 in last 14 games as a road underdog. Detroit’s five games have all been decided by 7 or less points, their two home games were both decided by a single point; Lions are 8-3-2 as home favorites under Caldwell, 0-1 this year. Injury to Rams’ best CB Johnson (ankle) could be a big problem for their defense, which has allowed 28+ points in three of five games.


Browns (0-5) @ Titans (2-3)— Cleveland is 0-5 with three losses by 11+ points (2-3 vs spread). Browns are 4-7 in last 11 games as a road underdog. Kessler figures to start again here, with McCown as backup. Tennessee allowed only six offensive TDs in five games, but they’ve given up a punt return TD in each of last two games and offense has also allowed two. Titans are 2-7-2 in last 11 games as a home favorite, 0-1 this year; they’ve run ball for 180 yards/game last three weeks. Browns are 5-2 in last seven games with Titans; they beat Tennessee 28-14 LY, with punt return TD and +3 turnover margin- they won field position by 14 yards. AFC North teams are 7-9 vs spread in non-division games, 1-3 as an underdog. AFC South home favorites are 4-2 in non-divisional games. Three of last four Cleveland games went over total.


Eagles (3-1) @ Redskins (3-2)— Philly allowed three TDs on eight drives in its post-bye loss LW. after allowing two TDs on 30 drives during its 3-0 start. Washington won/covered last three games after an 0-2 start, outscoring foes 37-9 in second half; Redskins are 3-8 vs spread in last 11 games as a home favorite. Skins won last three series games; Eagles lost three of last four visits here. Three of last four series games were decided by exactly three points. Philly lost 24-23 in Detroit LW after an early bye; they’re 18-10 in last 28 games as a road underdog, 1-0 this year. Eagles outscored their opponents 70-13 in second half of games. Washington is 10-13 in last 23 games where spread was 3 or less points; Eagles are 2-6 in last eight such games. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in divisional games.

Chiefs (2-2) @ Raiders (4-1)— Reid is 11-4 vs spread in last 15 post-bye games, 2-1 with KC. Chiefs won five of last six games with Oakland, with 4 of 5 wins by 14+ points; they’re 3-2 in last five visits here, but Chiefs are already 0-2 on road this year, scoring two TDs on 25 drives in losses at Houston (19-12), Pittsburgh (43-14). KC has been outscored 66-23 in first half this season. Raiders are 4-1 with three wins by 3 or less points, which breeds confidence; Oakland also allowed 27+ points in four of five games (over 4-1). Oakland is 6-15 in last 21 games with spread of 3 or less points, but 2-0 this year; Chiefs are 13-7 under Reid in such games. An average of 34.6 points/game have been scored, just in second half of Raider games this year.


Falcons (4-1) @ Seahawks (3-1)— 70% chance of rain here, as red-hot Falcons play out west for second week in row. Atlanta won/covered its last four games, all as an underdog- they’ve scored 18 TDs on 60 drives this year, scoring 32.7 pts/game in its three road wins. Falcons covered seven of last eight tries as a road underdog (3-0 this year). Seattle is 4-2 vs spread in last six post-bye games; they’re 26-14 in last 40 games as a home favorite, 1-1 this year. Bye week gave Wilson extra week for his legs to heal; Seahawks have had soft schedule so far, allowing 13.5 pts/game. Rams are probably best team they’ve played, so Falcons are step up in competition. NFC South road underdogs are 4-1 vs spread this year in non-divisional games.


Cowboys (4-1) @ Packers (3-1)— Dallas won/covered its last four games, running ball for 157.7 yds/game the last three weeks- they’ve scored 25.5 pts/game in road wins at Washington/SF. Rookie QB Prescott is playing well beyond his years. Cowboys are 19-12 as road dogs under Garrett, 1-0 this year. Packers are 3-1 but have scored only one second half TD this season- unusual. Pack ran ball for 135 yds/game the last two games; they’re 10-6-2 in last 18 games as a home favorite, 0-1-1 this year- both their home wins this season are by two points. Green Bay won last five series games; three of five wins were by 10+ points. Cowboys lost last three visits here; their last win at Lambeau was in 2008. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 4-2.


Colts (2-3) @ Texans (3-2)— Indy is 23-5 vs Houston, winning six of last seven meetings; Colts are 9-4 here, winning last three visits by 3-5-7 points. Texans out gained Indy by 121-115 yards in LY’s meetings, but lost field position by 11/6 yards. Home side won/covered all five Houston games this year; Texans won their home games by 9-7-7 points, allowing four TDs on 36 drives, but Houston has only six offensive TDs in five games. Indy allowed 30+ points in all three of its losses; they’ve scored 13+ points in second half of every game. Four of Colts’ five games went over the total. In their wins, Indy averaged 7.5, 8.1, 6.8 yds/pass attempt; in losses, 3.8/4.0. Houston held three of its five opponents under 6.0 ypa. Texans are -5 in turnovers last three weeks.




Monday's game


Jets (1-4) @ Cardinals (2-3)— Palmer (concussion) is expected back at QB here; Redbirds had three extra days to prep- they played on Thursday LW. Arizona scored 40-33 points in its two wins, 21 or less in its losses; they’re +7 in turnovers in wins, -8 in losses. Jets allowed 23+ points in all five games this year; they lost their last three games, outscored 37-7 in second half; they’ve allowed 7.8+ yds/pass attempt in four of five games, exception being game at Kansas City when Jets turned ball over eight times and KC didn’t have to try too hard on offense. Gang Green won last six series games; four of six were in New Jersey. Jets won last two visits here; their last loss at the Cardinals was in St Louis in 1971. NFC teams are 14-8 SU against AFC teams so far this season.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Thursday, October 13


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Broncos at Chargers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Phillip Rivers (NFL fourth-best 1,469 yards) is at the controls of the league's second-ranked offense (30.4 points) and recorded his second four-touchdown performance of the season on Sunday.


Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+3, 45.5)


Thursday's nationally televised contest pitting the reigning Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos against the San Diego Chargers would hold even more water had the latter followed up the first 58 minutes of their games by avoiding being doused over the final two. After seeing three leads evaporate after the two-minute warning, the snake-bitten Chargers look to snap a 10-game skid versus AFC West rivals on Thursday when they host the Broncos.


"You can't make this stuff up," quarterback Philip Rivers said after San Diego was felled by a botch hold on a game-tying attempted field goal in a 34-31 setback to Oakland on Sunday. "You think, 'Is there any other way we can find a way to do this?' " The path to right the ship will be tough versus Denver, which has won nine of the last 10 encounters between the clubs and is seething after absorbing its first loss of the season with a 23-16 setback to Atlanta. Quarterback Trevor Siemian (shoulder) is expected to be at the helm Thursday after sitting out versus the Falcons, but special teams coordinator Joe DeCamillis will serve as interim coach with Gary Kubiak being diagnosed with a complex migraine condition.


TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.


LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened the betting week for this Thursday night contest as 2.5-point road favorites but were bet up to 3-point faves on Monday afternoon - which is where they sit now. The total opened at 45.5 and hasn't moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.


POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-2.5) - Chargers (+3) + home field (-3) = Broncos -2.5


INJURY REPORT:


Broncos - S J. Simmons (Prob Thurs, wrist), T D. Stephenson (Prob Thurs, calf), TE V. Green (Prob Thurs, calf), QB T. Siemian (Prob Thurs, shoulder), CB K. Webster (Ques Thurs, hamstring), LB D. Ware (Late Oct, elbow), DE V. Walker (I-R, knee), C S. Brenner (I-R, concussion).


Chargers - P D. Kaser (Prob Thurs, hip), G O. Franklin (Ques Thurs, knee), LB D. Perryman (Ques Thurs, shoulder), T J. Barksdale (Ques Thurs, foot), T K. Dunlap (Ques Thurs, undisclosed), G C. Hairston (Ques Thurs, groin), RB D. McCluster (Ques Thurs, hamstring), CB C. Mager (Ques Thurs, shoulder), CB B. Flowers (Out Thurs, concussion), CB J. Verrett (Out For Season, knee), S J. Addae (Late Oct, collarbone), LB N. Czubnar (I-R, knee), LB M. Te'o (I-R, achilles), RB D. Woodhead (I-R, knee), WR K. Allen (I-R, knee), WR J. Herndon (I-R, knee), DT Z. Carlis (I-R, knee), T T. Johnstone (I-R, undisclosed), RB B. Oliver (I-R, achilles), G D. Clark (I-R, knee), C C. Watt (Elig Week 7, knee), LB T. Marcordes (I-R, undisclosed), TE J. Cumberland (I-R, achilles), DT C. Wray (I-R, foot), NT S. Lissemore (I-R, shoulder), WR S. Johnson (I-R, knee).


WEATHER REPORT: This may come as a huge surprise...but it's expected to be sunny with a zero percent chance of precipitation on Thursday evening in San Diego. Temperatures will be in the mid-70's with humidity values hovering around 75 percent.


ABOUT THE BRONCOS (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, 3-2 O/U): Although the quarterback situation has been answered for Thursday, Denver still has many questions regarding its running game after it failed to exploit the Falcons' 30th-ranked defense. C.J. Anderson has been unable to top 50 yards rushing in any of the last three games and mustered just three carries longer than four yards last week heading into a clash with the league's eighth-best rushing defense (83.4 yards per contest). Demaryius Thomas has found the end zone in each of his last three games overall and had a touchdown reception in each of his last three meetings with San Diego.


ABOUT THE CHARGERS (1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 O/U): Rivers (NFL fourth-best 1,469 yards) is at the controls of the league's second-ranked offense (30.4 points) and recorded his second four-touchdown performance of the season on Sunday, but four turnovers proved too much to overcome. Former first-round selection Melvin Gordon has struggled to find the handle on the ball, fumbling for the second time in as many weeks on Sunday and eighth time in 19 career games. "(Gordon) can't put the ball on the ground," coach Mike McCoy said via the San Diego Union-Tribune. "(His) fumbles won't affect his usage now. He's our back, and he's going to get going." The 23-year-old Gordon had trouble getting going in his previous encounter with Denver, fumbling twice while being held to 55 yards in a 17-3 setback on Dec. 6.


TRENDS:


* Broncos are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Thursday games.
* Chargers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
* Chargers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games.
* Over is 6-0 in Broncos last 6 games in Week 6.
* Under is 8-1 in Chargers last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in San Diego.


CONSENSUS: The public is backing the Broncos with 64 percent of the picks on the road favorites. Over is leading the way in totals wagers with 57 percent of the selections.

 

[CNOTES]

WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 52-70-4 42.62% -12500

O/U Picks 50-78-4 39.06% -17900


Triple Plays:..... 2 - 5 - 1




THURSDAY, OCTOBER 13


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


DEN at SD 08:25 PM


DEN -3.0


U 44.0

 

[CNOTES]

Newton cleared to play for Panthers
October 15, 2016


CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) Cam Newton has been cleared from the NFL's concussion program and can play Sunday when Carolina visits New Orleans.


The team said Saturday in a short statement that Newton had passed the league's concussion protocol. Previously, Panthers coach Ron Rivera said the quarterback and 2015 league MVP was expected to start against the Saints ''barring a setback.''


Newton participated fully in practice Friday, but still had to meet with an independent doctor before being cleared to play.


Newton hasn't spoken to reporters since suffering a concussion on Oct. 2 against the Falcons.


The Panthers are 1-4 and have lost three straight games.


-----------------------------


Redskins TE Reed ruled out Sunday
October 15, 2016


ASHBURN, Va. (AP) The Washington Redskins will be without tight end Jordan Reed for their NFC East showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday.


The team announced Saturday that Reed was downgraded from questionable to out because of a concussion. Reed reported symptoms Tuesday, was diagnosed with the sixth documented concussion of his pro and college career, and did not practice this week.


Reed is Washington's top offensive target with 33 catches for 316 yards and two touchdowns in five games this season. Vernon Davis and Niles Paul figure to see more action with Reed out against Philadelphia.


The Redskins said linebacker Su'a Cravens has also been downgraded to out with a concussion. Cornerbacks Bashaud Breeland (ankle) and Dashaun Phillips (hamstring) are questionable.


----------------------------


Lions RB Riddick ruled out Sunday
October 14, 2016


ALLEN PARK, Mich. (AP) Detroit Lions running back Theo Riddick has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Los Angeles Rams because of an ankle injury.


Riddick joins tight end Eric Ebron (ankle, knee), linebacker DeAndre Levy (knee, quadriceps) and defensive tackle Haloti Ngata (shoulder), all of whom have been ruled out as well.


Ameer Abdullah is on injured reserve with a foot injury, and the Lions signed running back Justin Forsett this week to help their depleted backfield.


Defensive end Ziggy Ansah (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday.


---------------------------


Jets' Revis back at practice, might play
October 14, 2016


FLORHAM PARK, N.J. (AP) Darrelle Revis gave his hamstring a workout and came away feeling pretty good about his chances of playing Monday night at Arizona.


The New York Jets cornerback returned to practice Friday for the first time since injuring a hamstring two weeks ago. Revis was a limited participant after doing just individual drills Thursday .


''One thing I do know is when I run, and I run at my top speed, my full speed, my hamstring is not grabbing,'' he said. ''That's two thumbs up in my book.''


Revis was hurt early in the fourth quarter against Seattle on Oct. 2.


''I know one thing as a DB: Anything with your legs, any injuries, that's very tough,'' he said. ''So you definitely want to be on point in that area, and I am. I feel fine and hopefully Monday I get to go.''


Revis missed the Jets' game at Pittsburgh last Sunday and was replaced in the lineup by both Marcus Williams and Darryl Roberts.


Coach Todd Bowles was still not certain whether Revis will play, and the cornerback said it's the coach's decision. But he was optimistic about his chances.


''I felt great, just to get out there and do what I do best,'' he said. ''It's a feeling-type of deal. The trainers wanted to go off of how I felt and what I thought about it, and I felt good. I had a couple plays where I was supposed to go in. And then a couple of reps turned into a bunch more reps. So, that's a good thing.''


Meanwhile, linebacker David Harris remains hopeful, but appears less likely to play because of a hamstring injury after not practicing at all so far this week.


Harris, hurt last Sunday at Pittsburgh, hasn't missed a game since the 2008 season - a streak of 121 consecutive regular-season games.


''I'm feeling OK, I guess,'' Harris said. ''I've been in the trainer's room all week, working on my hamstring and just trying to get in the best shape possible. We'll see.''


Bowles said the chances of Harris are ''slim'' if he doesn't practice, but added that the veteran linebacker ''still has a few days to get better.''


The Jets are holding what Bowles called ''a walk-through, jog-through'' practice on Saturday before heading to Arizona. The team will then have another walk-through session on Sunday. Harris will join the Jets on their flight to Arizona, and could be a game-time decision.


''I'm optimistic,'' said Harris, who wouldn't go into the specifics of his injury. ''I've been putting a lot of hours in the training room and with the training staff, and just doing everything possible to get back on the field. That extra day of rest will come in handy.''


Harris takes pride in his reputation for being a durable player despite playing an extremely physical position.


''It means a lot to me,'' he said. ''I just try to be there for my teammates. I don't like missing time with these guys.''


Bowles said the Jets could use a rotation, based on packages, of Erin Henderson, Bruce Carter and first-rounder Darron Lee at inside linebacker if Harris can't go.


''It's a huge hit for our defense,'' Revis said of the possibility of Harris not playing. ''The next guy's got to step up.''


Center Nick Mangold (knee) and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins (ankle) were limited after being injured against Seattle. Left tackle Ryan Clady (left shoulder) and tight end Braedon Bowman (knee) were also limited.


After being limited Thursday, defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson (ankle) and right guard Brian Winters (concussion) were both full participants.


---------------------------


Bears LB McPhee returns for practices
October 14, 2016


LAKE FOREST, Ill. (AP) Pernell McPhee was back at practice for the first time this season, and is hoping to play again for the Chicago Bears soon.


The linebacker was placed on the physically unable to perform list when training camp started and did not participate in offseason work after the surgery to his left knee.


The Bears have 21 days to consider whether to put McPhee on the 53-man active roster. He will not play Sunday against Jacksonville.


''I feel great, man,'' he said Friday. ''I'm out there practicing, running around with my teammates, so that's the best feeling in the world.''


McPhee, who had five sacks in his first seven games last year after coming over as a free agent from Baltimore, worked through knee issues for much of 2015 and then had surgery. Neither McPhee nor the Bears are saying the exact nature of the injury or surgery. The team found McPhee wasn't ready to practice in training camp, and he has been rehabbing since.


''You've got to go ask the doctors that,'' McPhee said about why it took so long. ''I had a successful surgery and it's healed now and I've got the opportunity to play football and that's the only thing that matters.''


McPhee likened his recovery to a car repair.


''So throughout the process, I just had to oil up everything else around so I know I was 100 percent when I come back,'' he said.


Bears coach John Fox said the surgery occurred 39 weeks ago and the team would be cautious about McPhee's return.


''We're going to have to be smart on how we manage his reps, both on the practice field in preparation, as well as in games,'' Fox said. ''I think we're just kind of starting that procedure now.''


McPhee worked with the scout team Friday.


''Obviously, he was excited,'' Fox said. ''It was good to see a smile on his face.''


McPhee signed a five-year, $40 million free agent contract with the Bears before the 2015 season after starting his career with the Baltimore Ravens. He had five sacks in his first seven games, but began experiencing knee pain and tried to play through it.


McPhee finished with only one more sack in 14 games.


Fox anticipates it will be an emotional boost for his 1-4 team just to have McPhee practicing.


''Friday's typically a little more of a light workout, but I'd say I think there was some enthusiasm there and some freshness there, for sure,'' Fox said.


Wide receiver Marquess Wilson is also on the PUP list due to an offseason foot injury, but the Bears chose not to begin considering him for the roster.


NOTES: Quarterback Jay Cutler (thumb), running back Jeremy Langford (ankle) and nose tackle Eddie Goldman (ankle) are doubtful for Sunday's game with Jacksonville. They did not practice this week. Cornerback Diondre Hall (ankle) has been ruled out. ... Tackle Bobby Massie is questionable after missing Friday's practice due to an ankle injury.

 

[CNOTES]

Browns place Bitonio on IR, QB McCown out
October 14, 2016


CLEVELAND (AP) The Browns are dropping like, well, the Browns.


Decimated by injuries since the season opener, Cleveland placed starting left guard Joel Bitonio on injured reserve Friday. They also ruled out quarterback Josh McCown for this week's game at Tennessee as he continues to recover from a broken left collarbone.


Bitonio's loss is another blow to the winless Browns (0-5), who have already started three quarterbacks, played five this season, and had no luck.


Rookie quarterback Cody Kessler will start against the Titans, one week after he sustained an injury to his chest and ribs in a loss to New England. McCown returned to practice for the first time since getting hurt on Sept. 18, but the 37-year-old isn't ready to play. With McCown still sidelined, rookie Kevin Hogan, promoted from the practice squad earlier this week, will back up Kessler.


Browns coach Hue Jackson said McCown needs more time to heal.


''He is getting there,'' Jackson said Friday. ''He is doing some things really well, but we are going to err on the side of caution with our guys before we stick them out there. I want to make sure they are really healed up and ready to go. Just talking to our medical staff, it is the best thing to do for another week.''


Already banged up, the Browns could be without top cornerback Joe Haden on Sunday. Haden has a new groin injury - he missed one game earlier this season - and has been limited in practice. Jackson said Haden got hurt ''just running'' in practice.


Hogan will be listed as Cleveland's No. 2 quarterback, but wide receiver Terrelle Pryor, the former Ohio State and Oakland QB, could line up behind center as he did in Week 3 when he took 14 snaps against Miami.


If Hogan has to play, Jackson said he has confidence in the former Stanford standout drafted in the fifth round by Kansas City before being waived and claimed by Cleveland.


''Obviously, he has practiced and been in meetings,'' Jackson said. ''He has always been in meetings and real engaged, but I think he understands obviously there is potential he could go out there and play. That is a different dynamic for a player when you think through it all, and for me, as well. Last week, that was not the case. He was in street clothes. This week he will be dressed up, and he will be out there just in case things don't go as well.''


Things haven't gone well for the Browns since the first kickoff to 2016.


Quarterback Robert Griffin III broke a bone in his left shoulder in the opener; McCown got hurt the following week along with starting center Cam Erving, who sustained a bruised lung and is still out. His replacement, Austin Reiter, tore knee ligaments, and kicker Patrick Murray sustained a season-ending knee injury in practice. Quarterback Charlie Whitehurst injured his left knee late in last week's game and was waived.


If that wasn't enough, wide receiver Josh Gordon checked into rehab days before his league drug suspension was to end.


The latest setback is to Bitonio, who sustained a mid-foot sprain on the final play of the first half Sunday when the Browns threw a long desperation pass into the end zone.


''It was freak,'' Bitonio said. ''Foot got tangled up a little bit and I didn't even go to the ground, just felt like, `Oh, that hurt a little bit.' Then after the game, I went in and they checked it out and did some more tests and stuff, and we realized it was a little worse.''


With Bitonio out, the Browns will again be forced to shuffle an offensive line already struggling to protect the quarterback.

 

[CNOTES]

Dolphins' Tunsil questionable against Pitt
October 14, 2016


DAVIE, Fla. (AP) Miami Dolphins guard Laremy Tunsil is back practicing fully but listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Pittsburgh.


Tunsil missed last week's loss to Tennessee because he sprained his right ankle during a pregame shower.


Tackle Branden Albert, who missed the game due to a virus, has recovered and is expected to play against the Steelers.


Among those questionable are safeties Reshad Jones (groin) and Isa Abdul-Quddus (knee), running back Arian Foster (hamstring) and linebacker Jelani Jenkins (groin). Ruled out as expected are cornerback Xavien Howard (knee) and tight end Jordan Cameron (concussion).


-------------------------


Bills DT Dareus doubtful with hamstring
October 14, 2016


ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. (AP) Buffalo Bills defensive tackle Marcell Dareus is doubtful for Sunday's game against the San Francisco 49ers.


Dareus has yet to play for the Bills this season. He missed the first four games with a suspension after violating the league's substance abuse policy, and injured his hamstring after returning to the practice field last week.


The third overall pick in the 2011 draft, Dareus has been one of Buffalo's best players over the previous five seasons. He has 253 tackles and 30 1-2 sacks in his career.


Nine Bills are questionable, including LB Zach Brown (ankle), LT Cordy Glenn (ankle), S Aaron Williams (ankle), TE Charles Clay (knee) and Dareus' likely replacement, DT Corbin Bryant (ankle).


Brown has been a major addition for the Bills this season and leads the NFL in tackles with 60.


-------------------------------


Dalton getting sacked at alarming rate
October 14, 2016


CINCINNATI (AP) The Bengals passed it off as an opening-game aberration when Andy Dalton was sacked a career-high seven times in a win over the Jets. It turned out to be the start of a trend.


Dalton has been sacked 17 times in five games, tied for second most in the NFL. Indianapolis has allowed 20 sacks.


Dalton has been sacked once every 12 pass attempts this season, which would be the worst rate of his career if it holds for a season. He was sacked a career-high 46 times in his second season of 2012. His best showing was 2014, when he went nearly 24 attempts between sacks.


Dalton was at 20 sacks last season before breaking his right thumb against Pittsburgh in the 13th game. He's three sacks away from matching that total.


What's surprising is that the line is virtually intact from last season and has been generally healthy. The only switch is Cedric Ogbuehi, a first-round draft pick in 2015, taking over at right tackle for Andre Smith, who went to Minnesota. Even when he's not getting sacked, Dalton has been under steady pressure.


''I've got to get the ball out of my hands quicker,'' said Dalton, who leads the AFC with 1,503 yards passing. ''There are a lot of things that we could do to fix it up. There's an importance on it, and we know that.''


The Cowboys got consistent pressure on Dalton last Sunday without blitzing much during a 28-14 win, which was surprising given the depth of experience on the offensive line. The Bengals fell to 2-3 for the first time in six years, and the sacks are one of the most glaring issues.


''You've seen teams win Super Bowls with makeshift offensive lines and figure out ways to get it done,'' left tackle Andrew Whitworth said. ''The reality is it's not just us, but we're a big component of it.''


The Cowboys scored touchdowns on their first three drives and went after Dalton in the second half, knowing he'd have to throw after Cincinnati fell behind 28-0. Dalton was sacked three times in the second half.


''Inevitably, if you are down 20-something points and throwing it every play, people are going to beat the offensive line up because they are giving up sacks in the fourth quarter,'' Whitworth said. ''And all of a sudden it's their fault they lost the game. That's not the truth.''


Ogbuehi had a particularly tough time Sunday against the Cowboys' pass rush.


''It's his first year actually playing and starting,'' Whitworth said. ''He's going to have ups and downs.''


The Bengals have a tough challenge against the Patriots (4-1) in New England, where Cincinnati hasn't won since 1986. When the Bengals played there in 2014, they got drubbed 43-17 as the Patriots held the Bengals to 0 for 7 on third-down conversions.


''I can remember all the way back to my second or third year when we played them,'' Whitworth said. ''We prepared for them to be one thing the entire week and the first snap they were, the next 68 snaps they weren't. I was just in shock. Never really seen that before. They have a great ability to do that.''

NOTES: Everyone except TE Tyler Eifert fully practiced Friday and is expected to play Sunday. Eifert didn't practice all week and has been ruled out for his sixth game. He's recovering from offseason ankle surgery and a back injury suffered this month while practicing. ... The last time the Bengals fell to 2-4 was 2010, when they finished 4-12. They drafted Dalton and receiver A.J. Green the following year and started a run of five straight playoff appearances and first-round losses.

 

[CNOTES]

Former NFL player Dennis Byrd killed in car accident
October 15, 2016


Dennis Byrd was an inspiration for far more than anything he ever accomplished on a football field.


He was able to walk again.


And with each step he took toward recovery from paralysis while guided by his always-present faith, Byrd defied doctors' grim predictions and became a symbol of perseverance and hope.


On Saturday, the former NFL defensive lineman whose career was ended by a neck injury, was killed in a car accident. He was 50.


The Oklahoma Highway Patrol said Byrd died in a two-vehicle collision on Oklahoma 88 north of Claremore.


The Tulsa World first reported Byrd's death. He starred at Mustang High School outside Oklahoma City and then at the University of Tulsa before playing for the New York Jets.


''We extend our sincere condolences to Dennis' wife, Angela, their children and the entire Byrd family,'' said Dr. Derrick Gragg, Tulsa's athletic director. ''Dennis exemplified true determination, tremendous heart and humility throughout his life. He had a tremendous playing career at TU and professionally with the New York Jets. He overcame great personal adversity after a life-altering injury on the football field.


''We know that Dennis touched numerous lives and will be missed by many.''


The Oologah-Talala Emergency Medical Services said the crash happened about 11 a.m. between Oologah and Claremore. It said a 17-year-old Claremore youth driving a 2000 Ford Explorer northbound on Oklahoma 88 veered into the oncoming lane, striking the 2004 Hummer H2 that Byrd was driving.


Byrd, who had returned to his home in Talala in recent years, was pronounced dead at the scene, and the 17-year-old driver and a 12-year-old passenger in Byrd's vehicle were taken in critical condition to Saint Francis Hospital in Tulsa.


The 6-foot-5, 270-pound Byrd was a second-round draft pick of the Jets in 1989 and quickly became a fan favorite for his intensity on the field as much as his humble, soft-spoken approach off it.


He was considered one of the NFL's promising young defensive ends during his first three seasons, racking up 27 sacks - a mark that only two players in franchise history surpassed: Mark Gastineau with 33 1/2 from 1979-81 and John Abraham with 27 1/2 from 2000-02.


Byrd had one sack midway through his fourth season when his life was changed during a game on Nov. 29, 1992, against Kansas City.


He broke his neck after slamming headfirst into the chest of teammate Scott Mersereau as Chiefs quarterback David Krieg stepped forward to avoid a sack. The impact broke the C-5 vertebra in Byrd's neck, leaving him briefly paralyzed, although doctors were uncertain if Byrd would ever be able to walk again.


After a vigorous rehabilitation over the next several months, Byrd returned to the Meadowlands for the Jets' opening game the following season and walked - gingerly but unaided - to midfield as an honorary captain.


He never fully recovered from the injury, walking with some difficulty and going through continuous rehabilitation during the years since. But Byrd, a devout Christian, wrote a book in 1993 called ''Rise and Walk: The Trial and Triumph of Dennis Byrd,'' which detailed how he relied on his faith and family to push through his injury to recover and serve an inspiration to others who went through similar situations.


Byrd's story was later made into a made-for-TV movie, with actor-director Peter Berg playing him.


During the 2010 season, Byrd sent then-Jets coach Rex Ryan the No. 90 jersey that had been torn from his torso on the field after the collision as an inspirational gift.


As a guest of the team, Byrd delivered a moving speech to the Jets at their hotel the night before a 28-21 playoff victory over the New England Patriots - during which the Jets had hung Byrd's jersey in their locker room.


Running back LaDainian Tomlinson and safety James Ihedigbo also carried out a green and white No. 90 jersey to midfield for the coin toss before the game. Many Jets players credited Byrd's speech for helping motivate them to the victory.


''Hearing about his story for the first time really makes you understand how fortunate we are and how fragile your career is,'' then-quarterback Mark Sanchez said at the time. ''These moments you have on the plane, hanging around in the locker room, having fun with guys, going to eat, playing on the field, it's pretty special. It can end at any moment. That was just a good reminder for us of how fortunate we are.''


No Jets player has worn No. 90 since Byrd, and on Oct. 28, 2012, the team honored him at halftime of its game against Miami by making him the fifth player in franchise history to have his number retired.


Mersereau introduced Byrd to the crowd, saying the most touching moment of his life came when he visited Byrd in the hospital and his teammate - unable to walk at that time - told him: ''Angie and I have been worried about you.''


Flanked by wife Angela and their four children, along with several of his former teammates, Byrd fought back tears while he was given a standing ovation by the fans at MetLife Stadium.


''I learned to be a man in Oklahoma,'' Byrd said, ''and I grew to be a man in New York.''


Every year, a Jets player is selected by his teammates to receive the Dennis Byrd Most Inspirational Player award.


''I really have loved coaching football and working with kids, talking about the lessons I've learned as an athlete and the journey as someone with a disability,'' Byrd said in 2012. ''Football has always been, for me, a cornerpost of strength and a way to accomplish things in life, whether it's on the field or just in maintaining a quality of life. All those lessons - dedication, perseverance, teamwork - they all dovetail nicely into living a blessed life.''

 

[CNOTES]

Panthers, Saints desperate as they renew divisional rivalry
October 15, 2016


NEW ORLEANS (AP) This is what it has come to for the defending NFC champion Carolina Panthers.


Either they beat the Saints in the Superdome on Sunday, or they fall into last place in the NFC South by themselves with 10 games to go.


''You don't expect to start this way,'' Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly said. ''It's a situation we are in now and it's all about how you're going to respond from it.''


On its face, the matchup of the Saints (1-3) and Panthers (1-4) has the look of a game between two struggling teams who very well might be going nowhere this season.


On the other hand, it could make for a desperate, high-stakes affair, given both teams are trying to salvage their season and believe it is still early enough to do so.


''We're not looking at them as a 1-4 team. We're looking at them as the returning NFC champions. We know that and just like when I was on a Super Bowl team, the next year, you get the best of every team,'' said Saints fullback John Kuhn, who played in the Super Bowl with Green Bay.


''This is two really good football teams going at each other. Throw the records out. Anybody watching this game is not going to be unsatisfied.


''We've only played a quarter of the season,'' Kuhn added. ''You've seen it in years past, especially with this division - anything can happen. We've got a lot of football left in front of us. So do they. It starts this week. We both understand what's going on.''


And it's not as if either team has been on the wrong end of many lopsided scores. Both teams have each lost games by three points and one point. Those games came down to the final possession and a play here or there could have tipped the balance.


The Panthers also played without star quarterback Cam Newton last Monday night against Tampa Bay and only lost on a last-second field goal.


Newton, who had been held out because of a concussion, will play this week as the Panthers try to keep pace with the ever-prolific offense designed by Saints coach Sean Payton and executed by QB Drew Brees.


''We know the team we're playing is a championship-level team that has lost some tough, close games,'' Payton said. ''We're going to have to be at our best.''


Here are some other story lines to watch as the Panthers invade the Superdome:


NEWTON'S NUMBERS: The Saints might be just what a struggling Newton needs. Newton, whose quarterback rating of 80.2 ranks 32nd in the league, often has played well against New Orleans, whose defense has been rated among the NFL's worst in three of the past four seasons and is again ranked 31st so far this season. Newton threw for 331 yards and five touchdowns last season at the Superdome and has 10 touchdowns and one interception in the past three games against New Orleans.


HOPEFUL HISTORY: The Saints can look at their own franchise history for examples of why they still might emerge as playoff contenders - if they can win this week. Under the current NFL playoff system, the Saints have twice made the playoffs after starting a season 1-3 - once in 1990 and once in 2000.


''We're trying to be an ascending team - a team that is trying to get better each and every week,'' Brees said. ''I feel like we have gotten better. We have learned and grown.''


WHERE'S THE RUSH?: Panthers starting defensive ends Kony Ealy and Charles Johnson have yet to register a sack this season through five games. Ealy said a major reason for that is opposing quarterbacks are getting the ball out quicker, giving the team's front four less time to get to the quarterback.


''Obviously quarterbacks are doing it for a reason, offensive coordinators are game-planning that way for a reason,'' Ealy said. ''They know what our front can do. It would be crazy for them to just be lax back there and know we are going to pressure with four or sometimes five guys. We see it as a sign of respect.''


GETTING DEFENSIVE: Although the Saints rank second-to-last in the NFL defensively, there have been signs of hope for the struggling unit. New Orleans ranks 13th in the NFL in red zone defense and tied for seventh in the league in limiting TDs on opposing offenses' goal-to-go scenarios. Also, New Orleans' much-maligned defense came up with a pair of fumble recoveries and an interception in the fourth quarter of their comeback win in their game at San Diego on Oct. 2. Now they're rested after a bye last week.


STEWART'S RETURN: The Panthers are hoping to get Jonathan Stewart back on the field after the team's starting running back missed the past three games with a hamstring injury. When healthy, Stewart is difficult to bring down and can be among the best running backs in the league. If Stewart can't go, the Panthers will turn to Cameron Artis-Payne, who ran for two TDs in a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night.

 

[CNOTES]

After big win over Denver, Falcons face next test in Seattle
October 15, 2016


Following the most impressive win of the early NFL season, the Atlanta Falcons aren't exactly being rewarded.


One week after going into Denver and handling the defending league champion Broncos 23-16, the Falcons stayed out west and headed to Seattle. Coming back with a road victory over the Seahawks (3-1 and coming off a bye) would stamp Atlanta (4-1) as a Super Bowl favorite.


Whoa! Whoa! Whoa!


Atlanta started 6-1 last season and finished 8-8. While this team looks more balanced, more polished and more dangerous than the 2015 version, it still has plenty to prove. On the scoreboard, and in the standings.


''I think that we are mentally tougher, a more resilient group for sure,'' Matt Ryan says.


''You learn from that. Obviously, we started fast last year and things didn't go our way in the second half of the season. I think what you learn is that the difference between wins and losses is a handful of plays and you've got to be on the right end of them. We've done a really good job of being opportunistic early in the season.''


No kidding. Ryan leads the NFL with a 121.6 passer rating, and Julio Jones has averaged a phenomenal 21.5 yards a catch. This is a matchup of the Falcons' No. 1-ranked offense against the Seahawks' top-ranked defense. Very juicy indeed.


''You get caught up in the peaks and the valleys just like Pete (Carroll) always says,'' star cornerback Richard Sherman notes, ''treat everything like a championship opportunity. You always treat it like you're playing the No. 1 offense. You start treating it like the No. 32 offense, and if the No. 32 offense, they (might) go put up 500 yards on you because they're still pros, they're still getting paid to do this. So we don't get caught up in any of that.''


But Sherman did acknowledge that facing Jones and Ryan would be ''fun.''


The action began Thursday night with San Diego's 21-13 home victory over Denver.


Philip Rivers threw for 178 yards and a touchdown, passing Hall of Famer Dan Fouts to become San Diego's career passing leader.


The victory may have saved embattled coach Mike McCoy's job. The Chargers (2-4) were coming off a mistake-filled loss at Oakland.


The Super Bowl champion Broncos (4-2) were coached by special teams coordinator Joe DeCamillis after Gary Kubiak was ordered by doctors to sit out because of a migraine condition that mimics strokes.


Off this week are Minnesota, at 5-0 the NFL's only unbeaten team, and Tampa Bay (2-3).


Dallas (4-1) at Green Bay (3-2)


There remain enough doubters about the Cowboys that this is another prove-it game. The way Dak Prescott is throwing it (155 passes without a pick) and Ezekiel Elliott is running it (league-high 546 yards), Dallas is proving you can win behind rookies .


''There are certainly a lot of areas where we have to get better,'' coach Jason Garrett says, ''but we're doing a good job coming off the ball, getting into blocks and finding places for runners to run. The runners are running well.''


Still, the Packers hold opponents to 42.8 yards rushing per game. If the Cowboys, 4-11 at the Packers, come close to their 155.2 yards per game on the ground, it will be impressive. And possibly decisive.

San Francisco (1-4) at Buffalo (3-2)


With Colin Kaepernick now the starter, he's going to attract attention for more than his refusal to stand during the national anthem. It took a four-game slide with Blaine Gabbert showing little at quarterback for coach Chip Kelly to make the change.


''We need to move the football offensively and that's why we made the decision to do what we were doing,'' Kelly says. ''So, hopefully we can get a little more consistency on the offensive side of the ball and that's what I think we need.


''Critical things in third down I think have been the things that we've really tried to emphasize and work on as we get moving forward here. That's what we're hoping for and that's why we made the move.''


Buffalo is hoping to keep streaking after going 3-0 since elevating Anthony Lynn to offensive coordinator and firing Greg Roman.


Cincinnati 2-3) at New England (4-1)


Tom Brady's first regular-season game in Foxborough after serving his four-game ''Deflategate'' suspension. Listen for wild cheers of support - and some nasty chants about Roger Goodell - and look for Brady to fill the air with regulation footballs. Many of those are likely to land in the hands of Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and a new favorite, TE Martellus Bennett, who had three TD catches last week.


The Bengals were humiliated in Dallas, and they haven't won in New England in 30 years. Brady is 5-1 against them with 12 TDs and a 101.2 passer rating.


Kansas City (2-2) at Oakland (4-1)


One of the NFL's great rivalries resumes - this is game 115, KC leads 60-52-2 - with the Chiefs needing to maintain their dominance in the AFC West. They've won three straight vs. Oakland and six straight within the division. Alex Smith loves seeing the Raiders on the other side of the line of scrimmage: He's 7-1 with 18 TDs, three interceptions and a 106.1 passer rating in this matchup.


These are the new Raiders, though, formidable and, at last, a threat to make the playoffs, a place they last visited 14 years ago. They rank fourth in total offense, a necessity considering they are last in defense.


Philadelphia (3-1) at Washington (3-2)


Another long-term rivalry (Washington leads 84-73-5), and this one should say a lot about the NFC East race.


Philly stumbled at Detroit after losing its momentum from a 3-0 start by having an early bye. Rookie quarterback Carson Wentz has been terrific, but it's the Eagles' defensive performance that has been just as crucial. They haven't allowed a touchdown in the second half and just six points overall.


Washington dropped its first two games, but Kirk Cousins throwing to DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed has sparked the attack.


Pittsburgh (4-1) at Miami (1-4)


For the first time, twins Maurkice (Steelers) and Mike Pouncey (Dolphins) are opponents. Their showings on the offensive line will be critical, especially for Miami, which has been awful with the ball, struggles to protect Ryan Tannehill, and is a minus-7 in turnover margin; only the Jets are worse.


Just what Ben Roethlisberger needs is another dangerous receiver.


Well, he's got one: Sammie Coates is averaging an NFL-best 22.1 yards per catch, with at least one reception of 40 yards or more in each game. Big Ben leads the league with 15 touchdown passes, the most through five games in Steelers history, and WR Antonio Brown is tops with 37 catches.


Baltimore (3-2) at New York Giants (2-3)


Unlike their AFC North brethren, the Ravens have stalled on offense, leading to the firing this week of coordinator Marc Trestman.


Barring falling into an early hole, look for plenty of balance with the ball from Baltimore, with Terrance West toting the ball.


Odell Beckham Jr. finally got into the end zone last week at Green Bay, but that didn't do much for New York, which has dropped three in a row.


Even more worrisome: New York is minus-7 in turnover differential, with only three takeaways. All that money spent on the defense has yielded minimal returns thus far.


Los Angeles (3-2) at Detroit (2-3)


The Lions might have benefited from a missed call by officials in their comeback win against the Eagles. They expect DE Ezekiel Ansah (ankle) back after missing three-plus games, and cornerback Darius Slay comes off a strong performance in which he had a clinching interception.


To get to .500, Detroit will need to figure out Todd Gurley. The 2015 Offensive Rookie of the Year went for 140 yards on 16 carries and had two TDs in last year's win over the Lions in St. Louis. Gurley has yet to break out this season, though, with only a 2.7-yard average. But he has rushed for three scores.


Indianapolis (2-3) at Houston (3-2)


Given the other matchups this Sunday, it's a shame the flex schedule hasn't begun yet.


Still, this is for first place in a division, albeit the mediocre AFC South.


The Colts are 23-5 against Houston, and Andrew Luck has won 14 of his past 15 starts within the division. He might need a big game because Indy is not likely to shut down receivers DeAndre Hopkins, Jaelen Strong and rookie Will Fuller.


New York Jets (1-4) at Arizona (2-3), Monday night


The Jets' crucible of five 2015 playoff teams in six weeks ends here. It hasn't been pretty, and with Carson Palmer expected back from his concussion, the Cardinals will be a difficult opponent.


But Arizona also has lost both starting guards, Mike Iupati and Evan Mathis, and New York has a good defensive line.


Jets coach Todd Bowles is close with Cardinals coach Bruce Arians, having played for Arians at Temple (1982-85) and serving as his defensive coordinator with Arizona in 2013-14.


Jacksonville (1-3) at Chicago (1-4)

Back from London after their first win and then a bye, the Jaguars believe they could make some inroads in the AFC South. Getting by Chicago is a must.


But they are 4-21 on the road in coach Gus Bradley's four seasons, including 0-6 against NFC teams.


The Bears have gotten good enough play from backup QB Brian Hoyer - three straight 300-yard games, six TDs, no picks - that Jay Cutler might not get back his job once fully healthy. Helping Hoyer has been RB Jordan Howard, who's second among NFL rookies with 296 yards rushing.


Carolina (1-4) at New Orleans (1-3)

How the mighty have fallen. Carolina's chances of winning a fourth consecutive NFC South are fading after losing their first two division matchups. A third one could be devastating, and they go against the prolific Drew Brees with an underachieving secondary and defense on the whole.


But at least they will have 2015 league MVP Cam Newton back at quarterback after he missed the loss to Tampa Bay with a concussion.


As always, New Orleans' chances ride on Brees' arm. He seems more comfortable every week with his current group of targets: Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead, Coby Fleener and rookie Michael Thomas.


Cleveland (0-5) at Tennessee (2-3)


Down Nashville way, they're singing optimistic songs about the Titans in the AFC South. Don't laugh too hard: a win and a Colts victory creates a three-way tie at the top.


The Titans can run the ball, with DeMarco Murray second in the NFL with 461 yards rushing and 633 yards from scrimmage. Murray leads everyone with 33 first downs.


Cleveland is gutsy, but so banged-up. The Browns believe this is a good opportunity to get off the schneid, but they'll need to figure out how to close out a victory if they get in position.

 

[CNOTES]

SuperContest Picks - Week 6
October 15, 2016


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.


Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.


The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.


This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.


Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.


Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5


Week 6


1) Kansas City PK (704)
2) Seattle -6.5 (450)
3) Green Bay -4.5 (448)
4) Houston -3 (424)
5) Philadelphia -2.5 (410)


SUPERCONTEST WEEK 6 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections


Denver (+3) 145 San Diego (-3) 123
Cincinnati (+8.5) 312 New England (-8.5) 343
Baltimore (+3) 245 N.Y. Giants (-3) 355
Carolina (-3) 143 New Orleans (+3) 387
Pittsburgh (-7.5) 398 Miami (+7.5) 345
Jacksonville (+2.5) 348 Chicago (-2.5) 163
San Francisco (+7.5) 234 Buffalo (-7.5) 296
Los Angeles (+3.5) 384 Detroit (-3.5) 161
Cleveland (+7) 225 Tennessee (-7) 196
Philadelphia (-2.5) 410 Washington (+2.5) 365
Kansas City (PK) 704 Oakland (PK) 330
Atlanta (+6.5) 404 Seattle (-6.5) 450
Dallas (+4.5) 329 Green Bay (-4.5) 448
Indianapolis (+3) 179 Houston (-3) 424
N.Y. Jets (+7.5) 239 Arizona (-7.5) 130


WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%
3 0-5 3-12 20%
4 1-4 4-16 20%
5 3-2 6-14 30%

 

[CNOTES]

Pick Six - Week 6
October 15, 2016


Week 5 Record: 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS


Overall Record: 14-16 SU, 12-18 ATS


Review: Following a 1-5 Week 4, things improved a little bit, but still an underachieving 2-4 mark with the Bills and Redskins the only winners.


Bengals at Patriots (-9, 47 ½) – 1:00 PM EST


Cincinnati
Record: 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1


The Bengals were wiped out early at Dallas last Sunday in a 28-14 defeat as 2 ½-point road favorites. Cincinnati fell behind, 28-0 before scoring a pair of late touchdowns, as the two victories by the Bengals have come against the Jets and Dolphins, who are a combined 2-8. The offense has been disappointing in Cincinnati, as the Bengals have been held to 17 points or less in their three losses, while scoring just one touchdown against Miami. The Bengals are playing with major revenge after getting blasted at Gillette Stadium as 2 ½-point road favorites in 2014 by a 43-17 count.


New England
Record: 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, 4-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 7/2


The Patriots were blanked by the Bills in the final game of Tom Brady’s suspension in Week 4. New England rebounded in a huge way in Brady’s debut last Sunday at Cleveland as the three-time Super Bowl champion threw for 406 yards and three touchdowns in a 33-13 rout as 10-point favorites. The Patriots’ defense has been terrific the last three weeks by allowing a total of 29 points and cashing three straight UNDERS. New England has won 26 of its past 28 home games with Brady under center since 2013, as the Patriots own an 18-8-2 ATS mark in this span.


Best Bet: New England -9


Ravens at Giants (-3 ½, 44 ½) – 1:00 PM EST


Baltimore
Record: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1


The Ravens jumped out to a 3-0 record before stumbling at home the last two weeks with losses to the Raiders and Redskins by a combined seven points. Baltimore changed things up from an offensive perspective by firing coordinator Marc Trestman and replacing him with Marty Mornhinweg as the Ravens have scored 19 points or fewer in three games. In last week’s 16-10 setback to Washington, the Ravens found the end zone less than five minutes into the game, but managed only three points in the final 55 minutes. Baltimore is listed as an underdog for the first time this season, as it posted a 5-3 ATS mark when receiving points in 2015.


New York
Record: 2-3 SU, 1-3-1 ATS, 4-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1


The Giants squeezed past the Cowboys and Saints in their first two games, but New York hasn’t found the win column recently by dropping three in a row. Granted, New York had to face Minnesota and Green Bay on the road in primetime in the last two weeks, but the Giants put up a combined 26 points in those defeats. The Giants have lost three straight home games to AFC opponents since 2014, including setbacks as an underdog to the Patriots and Jets last season. New York has lost two of the past three meetings with Baltimore since getting routed by the Ravens in Super Bowl XXXV in 2001.


Best Bet: Baltimore +3 ½


Eagles (-3, 44 ½) at Redskins – 1:00 PM EST


Philadelphia
Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1


Rookie Carson Wentz suffered his first NFL loss following a 3-0 start in Philadelphia’s 24-23 defeat at Detroit last Sunday as 3 ½-point favorites. The Eagles erased a 21-7 deficit to take a 23-21 lead in the fourth quarter, but Detroit took control in the final two minutes with the go-ahead field goal. Wentz was intercepted for the first time this season on a desperation toss on Philadelphia’s final possession, as the Eagles play their first divisional opponent on Sunday. Last season, the Eagles were swept by the Redskins, including a 23-20 defeat in D.C. as three-point favorites last October.

Washington
Record: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1


The Redskins have rebounded from an 0-2 start to win three consecutive games, including road victories in this span over the Giants and Ravens. Washington has been outrushed in all five games this season, but put together its best defensive effort of 2016 by limiting Baltimore to 306 yards in a 16-10 triumph last Sunday. The Redskins have won seven of its last eight contests since last November when listed in the underdog role with the lone loss coming to Pittsburgh in Week 1 of this season.


Best Bet: Philadelphia -3


Chiefs (-1 ½, 46 ½) at Raiders – 4:05 PM EST


Kansas City
Record: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1


The Chiefs are fresh off the bye week after getting pounded in Week 4 at Pittsburgh, 43-14 to drop to 0-2 away from Arrowhead Stadium. Each of the last two seasons, Kansas City has returned from the bye to face an AFC West rival on the road and the Chiefs came out victorious each time. In 2015, the Chiefs dominated the Broncos as 3 ½-point underdogs, 29-13, while picking off Denver five times in the rout. Kansas City has seen success recently against Oakland by winning five of the past six matchups, including three consecutive victories at the Coliseum.


Oakland
Record: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1


The Raiders continue to roll atop the AFC West after picking up its third straight win last Sunday in a 34-31 triumph over the Chargers. Oakland failed to cover as 3 ½-point favorites, but Derek Carr put up over 300 yards passing for the second time (319), while improving his touchdown to interception ratio to 11/2 on the season. The Raiders dropped to 1-2 ATS as a favorite, but with the money flipping towards the Chiefs, Oakland is now a slight under. In Jack Del Rio’s tenure as head coach, the Raiders have compiled a solid 9-4 ATS mark in the underdog role, but all four losses have come at home.


Best Bet: Oakland +1 ½


Falcons at Seahawks (-6 ½, 44 ½) – 4:25 PM EST


Atlanta
Record: 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, 4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1


Past the undefeated Vikings, the Falcons are the hottest team in the NFC by winning four consecutive games since losing the opener to Tampa Bay. In the past four weeks, Atlanta has been listed as an underdog four times and has won each time, including three times away from the Georgia Dome. Last week, the Falcons dominated the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos, 23-16 as 3 ½-point ‘dogs as Atlanta built a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter. Since the start of last season, the Falcons have put together an incredible 9-2 SU/ATS record in the underdog role, including a 6-2 SU/ATS mark on the highway.


Seattle
Record: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 7/1


The Seahawks are back from their bye week following back-to-back wins over the 49ers and Jets. Seattle’s three victories have come against teams that have combined for a 3-12 record, as the Seahawks own a 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS record at CenturyLink Field. The defense continues to excel in Seattle, allowing 18 points or less in all four games, but the Seahawks have hit the OVER in five of their previous eight home contests. Seattle has lost four of the past five meetings with Atlanta since 2007, as the Falcons are making their first trip to the Pacific Northwest since a 30-28 victory in 2011.


Best Bet: Seattle -6 ½


Cowboys at Packers (-4 ½, 47 ½) – 4:25 PM EST


Dallas
Record: 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, 3-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 18/1

Since dropping a one-point decision to the Giants in the season opener, the Cowboys have roared back to pull off four straight wins under rookie quarterback Dak Prescott. The fourth-round pick from Mississippi State has not thrown an interception in five games, while completing 69% of his passes in place of the injured Tony Romo. The Cowboys dominated the Bengals as a short home underdog last week, 28-14, led by another rookie, Ezekiel Elliott. The former Ohio State standout rushed for over 100 yards for the third consecutive game (134), while finding the end zone twice. The UNDER has hit in eight of the past 10 road games for Dallas since the start of last season, including in a 28-7 defeat at Lambeau Field last December.


Green Bay
Record: 3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 5/1


The Packers are in the midst of four consecutive games at Lambeau Field, as Green Bay is coming off home victories over Detroit and New York. In last Sunday night’s 23-16 win over the Giants, the Packers’ defense held New York out of the end zone for the first 57 minutes, while limiting New York to 221 yards. Green Bay has won 16 of its past 19 home games since 2014, as the Packers have covered 11 times in this span. The Packers have owned the Cowboys recently by winning five straight meetings since 2009, including four victories in a row at Lambeau Field.


Best Bet: Green Bay -4 ½

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Week 6
October 15, 2016


The back-and-forth total results in the 2016 season continued last week as bettors saw the totals go 7-7 and a lot of those ‘over’ winners were helped with early points as seven games saw 27 or more points scored in the first-half. Through five weeks, the ‘over’ holds a slight edge at 40-36-1.


Tendencies to Watch


With the first quarter of the season in the books, we’re starting to see a handful of clubs define themselves as either an ‘over’ or ‘under’ team. When it comes to betting sides, many handicappers and bettors put a major emphasis on the Yards per Play for each team. For totals, I prefer to use total yards per game for both the offensive and defensive units.


Looking below, we can see that the majority of the six best ‘over’ clubs this season have moved the ball offensively and they’ve also allowed a ton of yards. The one outlier is Jacksonville, who has solid defensive numbers but the offense has created short tracks for opponents with turnovers.

2016 TOTAL TENDENCIES - OVER
Team OFF YPG (Rank) DEF YPG (Rank) Total Record (O/U)
Atlanta 457.4 (1) 388.8 (26) 4-1
Indianapolis 358.6 (13) 410.6 (30) 4-1
Oakland 391.6 (4) 452.6 (32) 4-1
Washington 366.0 (10) 392.0 (27) 4-1
Jacksonville 320.8 (26) 304.5 (7) 3-1
New Orleans 386.0 (6) 422.8 (31) 3-1


The Patriots and Giants are the only teams that have seen the ‘under’ connect at an 80 percent (4-1) clip this season. With Tom Brady back at quarterback, New England’s going to see its share ‘over’ winners start to cash.


2016 TOTAL TENDENCIES - UNDER
Team OFF YPG (Rank) DEF YPG (Rank) Total Record (O/U)
New England 377.2 (7) 345.0 (13) 1-4
N.Y. Giants 350.0 (18) 358.2 (17) 1-4


I’ve included four teams below that have had mixed total results through the first month and I believe we’ll start to see the pendulum swing the other way for a couple of them. Pittsburgh’s combination of great offense and average defense usually translates into ‘over’ tickets but the Steelers have leaned ‘under’ so far due to high numbers and four games being decided by double digits.


Tennessee is 3-2 to the ‘over’ but that could easily be a 5-0 ‘under’ mark if the scoreboard didn’t count defensive and special team scores. It does, but be aware the that Titans defense is legit and the team has only allowed 38 points in the second-half this season (21 points D/ST).


2016 TOTAL TENDENCIES - TEAMS TO WATCH
Team OFF YPG (Rank) DEF YPG (Rank) Total Record (O/U)
Pittsburgh 386.8 (5) 379.0 (25) 2-3
Tennessee 358.0 (14) 320.6 (10) 3-2
Green Bay 321.8 (25) 317.8 (9) 2-2
Seattle 357.5 (15) 264.0 (1) 2-2
Off the Bye


Four teams will be playing with rest this week and below are recent total notes for each club after the bye week.


Jacksonville at Chicago: The Jaguars have seen the ‘over’ go 3-1 their last four after the bye and the defense has allowed 26 PPG during this span.


New Orleans vs. Carolina: Last season, the Saints were drilled 24-6 at Houston after the bye and that result might be an anomaly. Prior to that outcome, New Orleans saw the ‘over’ go 8-1 in its previous nine with rest.

Kansas City at Oakland: Lots of folks aware of Andy Reid’s strong bye numbers (19-3 SU, 16-6 ATS. For total purposes, the Chiefs have seen the ‘under’ go 4-0 with two pushes in its last six games off the bye.


Seattle vs. Atlanta: The Seahawks have seen their totals go 3-3 after the bye since Pete Carroll took over and surprisingly their straight up record is 3-3 as well.


Divisional Battles


For the second straight week, the highest total on the board takes place in a divisional matchup.


Carolina at New Orleans: The ‘over’ has gone 7-3 in the last 10 meetings and if the high number (53 ½) has you a tad hesitant, make a note that the ‘over’ has gone 6-0 when these teams have seen a total in the fifties. As mentioned above, New Orleans is your perfect ‘over’ team due to a great offense and poor offense. You might be surprised to know that Carolina’s offense is ranked third in total yards (392 YPG) but it’s failed to register as much on the scoreboard (24.6 PPG).


Kansas City at Oakland: This AFC West matchup is receiving plenty of attention this week at the betting counter and the Andy Reid “bye trend” is being fully supported. As far as the total (46 ½) goes, these teams haven’t seen a number this high since 2005 when the Chiefs were a high-flying attack with Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson and Trent Green running the show. This Kansas City team is far removed from that juggernaut but they could improve this week against an Oakland defense (452.6 YPG) that is ranked last in yards and 25th in points (27.4). The ‘over’ has gone 4-1 in the last five encounters between the pair and the Chiefs have put up some crooked numbers during this span, averaging 32.8 PPG.


Indianapolis at Houston: (See Below)


Non-Conference Action

The AFC-NFC matchups saw their totals go 3-3 last week and the ‘over’ is now 14-10 (58%) this season.


Baltimore at N.Y. Giants: If you took away the names of the QBs (Flacco, Manning) involved in this game and purely looked at this year’s numbers, then I believe we would be looking at a much lower total than 44 ½ posted. The Ravens (18.8 PPG) and Giants (17.8 PPG) have been a mess offensively this season while their defensive units have both improved. Until either of the QBs can find their past form, I’d be hesitant to go high here.


Jacksonville at Chicago: This game opened 47 and has been knocked down to 45 ½ as of Saturday morning. Neither the Jaguars (21 PPG) or Bears (17 PPG) have shown the ability to put up points consistently and both defensive units are underrated.


San Francisco at Buffalo: In my third installment of “Total Talk” this season, I touched on an angle of West Coast teams traveling to the East Coast. The ‘over’ has now gone 5-0 in those games and this situation fits. I’m not high on Buffalo’s offense at all, but San Francisco has surrendered 140 points in its last four games since opening the season with a shutout.


N.Y. Jets at Arizona: (See Below)


Under the Lights


We’ve watched 17 primetime games this season and the ‘under’ has gone 9-7-1, which includes the result from the past Thursday between Denver and San Diego.


Indianapolis at Houston: The ‘under’ has gone 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in this series but make a note that the last three encounters at NRG Stadium have all gone ‘over’ the number. The Texans defense has been incredible at home this season (15.3 PPG) but Colts QB Andrew Luck has gone 5-1 versus Houston in his career while tossing 14 TDs to 3 INTs. Houston’s offense isn’t a juggernaut and it’s hard to imagine the unit being stopped by a Colts defense (29.6 PPG, 410 YPG) that hasn’t been able to slow anybody down.


N.Y. Jets at Arizona: This total seems a tad high (47) considering the offensive form for both clubs yet the oddsmakers respect Arizona’s offense at home, especially with QB Carson Palmer back under center. The question ‘over’ bettors need to ask is if they believe Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick can generate any offense. The Jets are averaging 11 PPG the last three weeks and Arizona’s defense (15.7 PPG) has been much better at home. These teams haven’t met since 2012 when the Jets beat the Cardinals 7-6 at home.


Fearless Predictions


We had some close calls last week but fortunately on the right side with three of the wagers and that kept us positive ($190). Five weeks in the books and the bankroll ($450) is nearing five digits of profit. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!


Best Over: Over 48 ½ Pittsburgh-Miami


Best Under: Under 43 ½ Cleveland-Tennessee


Best Team Total: Over 28 Carolina


Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 39 ½ Pittsburgh-Miami
Over 35 San Francisco-Buffalo
Under 56 ½ Dallas-Green Bay

 

[CNOTES]

Gridiron Angles - Week 6
October 15, 2016



NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:


-- The Eagles are 10-0 ATS since Sep 26, 2010 on the road after a road game where they allowed at least 24 points.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:


-- The Bears are 0-12-2 ATS since Dec 04, 2011 at home coming off a game where they scored more than expected.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:


-- The Colts are 0-7 OU since Dec 07, 2014 when Andrew Luck: threw for at least two touchdowns in a win last game.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:


-- The Eagles are 12-0 OU since Sep 29, 2013 coming off a loss where they allowed more points than expected.


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:


-- The Chiefs are 0-10-1 OU since Dec 19, 2010 coming off a road\ game where they failed to cover by at least seven points.


NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:


-- The Giants are 0-10 ATS at home when they are off a game as a dog and the line is within three of pick when facing a non-divisional opponent that has more wins on the season.

 

[CNOTES]

SNF - Colts at Texans
October 14, 2016




The Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans have both been major disappointments this season and we'll get to see what 2016 resume gets muddied more during Sunday Night Football where Houston is a three-point home favorite. Quarterback Andrew Luck has won his last six starts against the Texans, but he's been in a major funk the last two season regarding execution and also leads the NFL by being sacked 20 times this year while starting 2-3.


The Texans lead the AFC South a 3-2 record, but there are still grumblings about the performance of the team. There were high expectations placed on the Texans. Fans were talking Super Bowl, which is being played in Houston this season. New QB Brock Osweiler, who signed for $72 million in the off-season, has taken much of the ire from fans. He's won all three home games, but looked bad in road loses at New England and Minnesota -- who hasn't. He's completed 57 percent of his passes for six TDs and 7 interceptions.


Despite the Texans struggles offensively with just 310 yards per game, their defense has still been very good holding opponents to 300 YPG, despite superstar J.J. Watt being out for the year. The Colts defense gives up 29.6 points per game and 410 YPG.


WHAT THE LUCK IS GOING ON?


Before last season, the Colts were expected to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl and Andrew Luck was supposed to take a step forward in becoming an elite NFL QB on the A-list. But they sputtered out of the gate to a 1-5 start and then he was injured (kidney & abdominal) in a home win against Denver and it cut his season short. This season, they've improved to a 2-3 mark, but trailed in the fourth quarter of both wins, which were each at Indy. Their losses have been to Detroit (39-35), at Denver (34-20) and against the Jaguars (30-27) in London.


LINE MOVEMENT


CG Technology sports books in Las Vegas opened Houston -3.5 in its Sunday night openers and by Monday morning they were at - (-120). By Thursday, the line was down to 3-flat were its been since Friday evening. The total has been the real mover with sharp action involved.


"Our top two total plays have been the Jaguars-Bears 'under' (47) and the Colts-Texans 'over' (46.5); we're at 48 on that game now," CG risk management VP Jason Simbal said.


The money-line has been as high as Houston -165, but dog money at +145 has pushed it down to -150/+130.


When CG books opened lines on every game back in April, the Texans were -1.5 for this one.


PUBLIC OPINION


The best way to see what the public is feeling for a game is to understand what they're collectively jumping on with parlay wagers. William Hill's 108 sports books take one of the highest volume of parlay action in Nevada. On all wagers involving the Indy/Houston point-spread, the Texans have been wagered in 58 percent of all tickets printed and have 67 percent of all cash taken in.


PROPER NUMBER


In my personal ratings, I have the Texans a half-point better than the Colts on a neutral field and I'll give the Texans 3-points for a home field advantage on the basis of winning and covering all three home games thus far and the Colts failing to cover the number in four of their last five road games. Let's call the proper number Houston -3.5.


RECENT HISTORY


The Texans 16-10 win (Brandon Weeden at QB) at Indianapolis (Matt Hasselbeck at QB) in December ended a six-game win streak for the Colts. The Colts went 5-0-1 ATS in those games. Nine of the past 11 meetings in Houston have gone 'over' the total.


TRENDS


-- Indy is 17-6-1 ATS in its last 24 vs AFC South teams.
-- Indy is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.


-- Houston 6-0 ATS in its last six against AFC South teams.
-- Houston has gone Over total in its last nine games played in October.


SNF PROPS FROM WESTGATE (20 cent splits)


-- First score of game will be: TD -165
-- Total passing yards by Andrew Luck: 279.5
-- Total recieving yards by T.Y. Hilton: 77.9
-- Total completions by Brock Osweiler: 21.5
-- Will DeAndre Hopkins score a TD: YES -120
-- Total sacks by both teams: 5


EARLY WEEK 7 SPREADS


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posts early numbers for the next week every Tuesday and opened the Colts at Tennessee as a pick 'em. Let's give Tennessee a 2.5-point home edge, which is what the rating difference is between the two squads. Now let's take a look at recent spreads within the division. Houston was -4 at home (they get 3-points) against the Titans two weeks ago, the same week the Jaguars were getting +1 from the Colts on a neutral field. The Texans are +6.5 at Denver (MNF) next week -- the Colts were +6 there in Week 2.


ODDS TO WIN DIVISION


The Colts and Texans opened in May at the Westgate as 3/2 co-favorites (Bet $100 to win $150) to win the AFC South, but now Houston is alone at the top at 10/11 odds (Bet $100 to win $91). Indianapolis is now at 9/4 odds. The Titans have some respect at 5/1 and the Jaguars don't at 7/1. Jacksonville was considered 'the team to watch' as a riser from its awful class, and were given 7/2 odds to win at the beginning of the season.


SUPER BOWL ODDS


The Colts were 20/1 when odds were first posted in February, but you can get 60/1 now at the Westgate. The Texans were 40/1, before signing Osweiler, and they're still at 40/1.


Here's how they stack up against the top AFC teams:
Patriots (7/2)
Steelers (6/1)
Broncos (12/1)
Raiders (16/1 - Lots of risk)
Chiefs (30/1)
Ravens (50/1)

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Sunday, October 16




Terrible weather in Seattle today. 51% chance of rain showers and 20 mph winds. Seahawks -6.5 vs Falcons. Total is at 45 points.




67% chance of rain for Orchard Park with winds nearing 20 mph. Buffalo -8 vs 49ers with total at 44.5 points.




54% chance of rain in Oakland today. Raiders opened -2 and money on Chiefs pushed line to Raiders +1.5. Total at 46 points.