Opening Line Report - Week 4
September 19, 2016
While Tennessee has yet to live up to lofty expectations through the first three weeks of the college football season and hasn’t beaten Florida in their last 11 meetings, oddsmakers have installed the Volunteers as solid favorites for their Week 4 clash against the Gators.
On Sunday, the Wynn opened Tennessee -8, Las Vegas’ first number on the game, and the line was bet down to -7 by Monday morning. William Hill and the Westgate both opened Tennessee -6.5.
Both teams are dealing with significant injuries, particularly on defense for Tennessee, while Gators quarterback Luke Del Rio has been ruled 'out' for Saturday.
The Vols are 3-0 straight up but just 1-2 against the spread, having failed to cover in closer-than-anticipated games against FBS Appalachian State (20-13 in OT) and Ohio from the MAC (28-13). In Week 2 against Virginia Tech at Bristol Motor Speedway, Tennessee had to come back after spotting the Hokies two early touchdowns.
“They’re obviously playing awful football,” said Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons.
But Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading at William Hill U.S., expects a better effort from Butch Jones’ men against the Gators.
“Tennessee was probably overpriced to start the year and they’ve underperformed to what people thought they would do,” Bogdanovich said. “But this is the real week. The earlier weeks were practices. This is prime time.”
With Purdue transfer Austin Applebee getting the start in place of Del Rio, South Point sports book director Chris Andrews isn’t sure there’s been a big enough adjustment to the betting line.
Andrews opined, “Tennessee is probably the right side in this game, mostly because of the quarterback situation in Florida. I thought it would be 6 with Del Rio. To me, this isn’t enough of an adjustment.”
Let’s buzz through some of the other key games on the Week 4 college football card:
Clemson (-9) at Georgia Tech, Thursday, Sept. 22
Clemson opened -11 at the Wynn, but action on Georgia Tech pushed the line down to -9 on Monday. These underdog bettors probably noticed the Tigers have lost in their last five visits to Georgia Tech.
While Clemson, after an historic season last year, hasn’t come firing out of the gate, Andrews sees improvement on the horizon and doesn’t agree with the early move on the 'dog.
“I liked the opening number, to be honest with you,” Andrew said. “Clemson has not been playing their best ball yet, but I think they’re on the verge of playing a good one.”
USC at Utah (-2), Friday, Sept. 23
Folks are down on USC. Two losses in the first three weeks of the season will do that. Those losses, though, came against Alabama at a neutral site and at Stanford. Are the Trojans now underrated because of their 1-2 record?
Possibly, said Bogdanovich, but a trip to Utah isn’t necessarily the way to get a season back on track.
“They’re still pretty young, and there were times during both of those (losses) they actually looked pretty good,” Bogdanovich said. “They may be a little underrated, but this is a brutal place to play, and considering two of their first three games were absolutely brutal, it wouldn’t surprise me if they lost this one, too.”
Andrews believes USC’s issues go beyond a tough early schedule.
“I really dislike the coaching for Southern Cal. I don’t think (Clay) Helton is the answer,” he said. “I think it was a very poor choice on their part. They’ve been extremely inconsistent. I’d say the opposite about Utah – they’re a very well-coached team and don’t have nearly the talent level (of USC), but they give you an honest effort every time out.”
Penn State at Michigan (-18.5), Saturday, Sept. 24
This betting line on this Big 10 battle saw a significant early move, as the Wynn opened Michigan -15.5 on Sunday and was bet up to -18.5 by Monday morning.
While the Wolverines are a team the public loves to bet on, it is sharp money that moves the line so early in the week. Still, this public sentiment may have indirectly prompted the 3-point swing.
“It could have been some wiseguys jumping in front of the squares,” Bogdanovich explained. “Sometimes that has to happen. If a sharp wants to play a favorite, sometimes he knows he better get on it early, or else he’s going to be laying a worse number come the weekend.”
At a number this big, Andrews said, “there might be a little value on Penn State. Their defense is pretty good, their quarterback Trace McSorley is not bad. If anything, Michigan may be a little overrated. The wiseguys came in against them with Colorado (last week), and I think that was definitely the right side” (Michigan won 45-28, failing to cover as an 18-point favorite).
Wisconsin at Michigan State (-6), Saturday, Sept. 24
Early Bettors went line shopping on this Big 10 clash, as Michigan State -5 hung at CG Technology was bet up to -6, while William Hill moved from -6.5 to -6, and the Westgate from -6 to -5.5.
The Badgers struggled at home against Georgia State last week, but got a bit of an offensive jolt when they subbed redshirt freshman QB Alex Hornibrook in for Bart Houston. Hornibrook is expected to start vs. Sparty on Saturday.
Michigan State, meanwhile, was uber-impressive in its win as seven-point underdogs at Notre Dame. Salmons, though, cautions the Spartans have thrived in the underdog role. When they’re favored, it’s been a different story.
“For whatever reason, they really play well in the role of an underdog against teams that are somewhat their equal,” Salmons said. “But they’ve just been awful laying points” (MSU is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games as chalk).
Salmons and Andrews both have high praise for Spartans coach Mark DAntonio.
“He’s right up there with Saban and Meyer,” said Andrews. “Those guys gets the Nos. 1 and 2 recruiting classes virtually every year, and he’s getting two- and three-star athletes and producing these kinds of teams consistently. This guy is one of the great coaches in college football.”
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (-6), Arlington, Tex., Saturday, Sept. 24
Favorite bettors evidently loved the opening number on this game, Texas A&M -3, pushing the line up the ladder to -6.
The Razorbacks and Aggies have played overtime games against each other in back-to-back seasons, and while A&M won both of those games, the closeness of the contests makes those points enticing.
“A&M is really good, there’s no doubt they’re playing really good ball,” said Andrews. “But I kind of like Arkansas with the points. I think it’s a pretty good outfit, and I think it’s going to be a really tight game.”
Andrews said with the game at AT&T Stadium, Texas A&M gets some, but not full, home-field advantage in terms of the point spread.
Georgia at Ole Miss (-7), Saturday, Sept. 24
While Ole Miss was bet up from -6 to -7 in the first 24 hours of wagering, Bogdanovich sees this game coming at a bad time for the Rebels.
“Georgia got outplayed in Missouri (last week) and got away with one,” Bogdanovich said. “But is there worse possible spot in the world for Ole Miss? They left everything in the field (in a 48-43 loss to Alabama), and that’s the biggest game they’ll play all year. They could have won it – had a big lead, let it slip away – and Alabama is super physical. So not only are you now physically exhausted, you’re mentally exhausted, too. I don’t know how Ole Miss gets up for this one.”
LSU (-3.5) at Auburn, Saturday, Sept. 24
While each week seems to lend more evidence to the notion that Auburn has devolved to a middling college football team, LSU hasn’t been setting the world on fire either, falling well short of national title-type expectations placed upon them ahead of the season.
Two of the bookmakers we spoke to offered differing opinions about LSU, which last week opened a 20-0 lead at Mississippi State but had to hold on for the 23-20 win.
“They got up and sometimes you just go to sleep, and that’s what happened in that game,” Bogdanovich said. “LSU will only get better. They’re pretty young, and when they’re focused, they’re pretty good. I think it’s a pretty good spot for LSU.”
What say you, Chris?
“LSU is just not that good,” Andrews said. “They let a big lead slip away last week. They lost to Wisconsin who maybe isn’t that good. I kind of like Auburn with the points. We know they’re not that good, but I think we’re still kind of kidding ourselves about LSU. Especially when you get them away from Baton Rouge, they’re not going to be that strong.”
Stanford (-3) at UCLA, Saturday, Sept. 24
The -2.5 the Wynn hung on Stanford was too good to pass up, as bettors laid the short price with a Cardinals teams that has dominated the Bruins in modern times. Stanford has beaten UCLA eight times in row, covering the spread in seven of those games, and in none of those matchups have bookmakers asked Stanford to lay a smaller number than they’re laying this week.
Early line moves
Here are games that moved at least 2 points in the favorites’ direction in the first 24 hours of wagering a the Wynn.
East Carolina vs. Virginia Tech
Opening line: Va Tech -9.5
After 24 hours: Va Tech -12
Penn State at Michigan
Opening line: Michigan -15.5
After 24 hours: Michigan -18.5
Wake Forest at Indiana
Opening line: Indiana -5.5
After 24 hours: Indiana -7.5
BYU at West Virginia
Opening line: WVU -3.5
After 24 hours: WVU -6.5
Georgia Southern at Western Michigan
Opening line: WMU -4
After 24 hours: WMU -7
Louisville at Marshall
Opening line: Louisville -22.5
After 24 hours: Marshall -25.5
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M
Opening line: Texas A&M -3
After 24 hours: Texas A&M -6
UT-San Antonio at Old Dominion
Opening line: ODU -1.5
After 24 hours: ODU -4
Here are games that moved at least 2 points in the underdog’s direction in the first 24 hours of wagering the Wynn.
Clemson at Georgia Tech
Opening line: Clemson -11
After 24 hours: Clemson -9
TCU at SMU
Opening line: TCU -24
After 24 hours: TCU -22
Syracuse at UConn
Opening line: UConn -6
After 24 hours: UConn -4
Mississippi State at UMass
Opening line: Miss State -25
After 24 hours: Miss State -22.5
Charlotte at Temple
Opening line: Temple -29.5
After 24 hours: Temple 27.5
Florida at Tennessee
Opening line: Tennessee -8
After 24 hours: Tennessee -6
September 19, 2016
While Tennessee has yet to live up to lofty expectations through the first three weeks of the college football season and hasn’t beaten Florida in their last 11 meetings, oddsmakers have installed the Volunteers as solid favorites for their Week 4 clash against the Gators.
On Sunday, the Wynn opened Tennessee -8, Las Vegas’ first number on the game, and the line was bet down to -7 by Monday morning. William Hill and the Westgate both opened Tennessee -6.5.
Both teams are dealing with significant injuries, particularly on defense for Tennessee, while Gators quarterback Luke Del Rio has been ruled 'out' for Saturday.
The Vols are 3-0 straight up but just 1-2 against the spread, having failed to cover in closer-than-anticipated games against FBS Appalachian State (20-13 in OT) and Ohio from the MAC (28-13). In Week 2 against Virginia Tech at Bristol Motor Speedway, Tennessee had to come back after spotting the Hokies two early touchdowns.
“They’re obviously playing awful football,” said Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons.
But Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading at William Hill U.S., expects a better effort from Butch Jones’ men against the Gators.
“Tennessee was probably overpriced to start the year and they’ve underperformed to what people thought they would do,” Bogdanovich said. “But this is the real week. The earlier weeks were practices. This is prime time.”
With Purdue transfer Austin Applebee getting the start in place of Del Rio, South Point sports book director Chris Andrews isn’t sure there’s been a big enough adjustment to the betting line.
Andrews opined, “Tennessee is probably the right side in this game, mostly because of the quarterback situation in Florida. I thought it would be 6 with Del Rio. To me, this isn’t enough of an adjustment.”
Let’s buzz through some of the other key games on the Week 4 college football card:
Clemson (-9) at Georgia Tech, Thursday, Sept. 22
Clemson opened -11 at the Wynn, but action on Georgia Tech pushed the line down to -9 on Monday. These underdog bettors probably noticed the Tigers have lost in their last five visits to Georgia Tech.
While Clemson, after an historic season last year, hasn’t come firing out of the gate, Andrews sees improvement on the horizon and doesn’t agree with the early move on the 'dog.
“I liked the opening number, to be honest with you,” Andrew said. “Clemson has not been playing their best ball yet, but I think they’re on the verge of playing a good one.”
USC at Utah (-2), Friday, Sept. 23
Folks are down on USC. Two losses in the first three weeks of the season will do that. Those losses, though, came against Alabama at a neutral site and at Stanford. Are the Trojans now underrated because of their 1-2 record?
Possibly, said Bogdanovich, but a trip to Utah isn’t necessarily the way to get a season back on track.
“They’re still pretty young, and there were times during both of those (losses) they actually looked pretty good,” Bogdanovich said. “They may be a little underrated, but this is a brutal place to play, and considering two of their first three games were absolutely brutal, it wouldn’t surprise me if they lost this one, too.”
Andrews believes USC’s issues go beyond a tough early schedule.
“I really dislike the coaching for Southern Cal. I don’t think (Clay) Helton is the answer,” he said. “I think it was a very poor choice on their part. They’ve been extremely inconsistent. I’d say the opposite about Utah – they’re a very well-coached team and don’t have nearly the talent level (of USC), but they give you an honest effort every time out.”
Penn State at Michigan (-18.5), Saturday, Sept. 24
This betting line on this Big 10 battle saw a significant early move, as the Wynn opened Michigan -15.5 on Sunday and was bet up to -18.5 by Monday morning.
While the Wolverines are a team the public loves to bet on, it is sharp money that moves the line so early in the week. Still, this public sentiment may have indirectly prompted the 3-point swing.
“It could have been some wiseguys jumping in front of the squares,” Bogdanovich explained. “Sometimes that has to happen. If a sharp wants to play a favorite, sometimes he knows he better get on it early, or else he’s going to be laying a worse number come the weekend.”
At a number this big, Andrews said, “there might be a little value on Penn State. Their defense is pretty good, their quarterback Trace McSorley is not bad. If anything, Michigan may be a little overrated. The wiseguys came in against them with Colorado (last week), and I think that was definitely the right side” (Michigan won 45-28, failing to cover as an 18-point favorite).
Wisconsin at Michigan State (-6), Saturday, Sept. 24
Early Bettors went line shopping on this Big 10 clash, as Michigan State -5 hung at CG Technology was bet up to -6, while William Hill moved from -6.5 to -6, and the Westgate from -6 to -5.5.
The Badgers struggled at home against Georgia State last week, but got a bit of an offensive jolt when they subbed redshirt freshman QB Alex Hornibrook in for Bart Houston. Hornibrook is expected to start vs. Sparty on Saturday.
Michigan State, meanwhile, was uber-impressive in its win as seven-point underdogs at Notre Dame. Salmons, though, cautions the Spartans have thrived in the underdog role. When they’re favored, it’s been a different story.
“For whatever reason, they really play well in the role of an underdog against teams that are somewhat their equal,” Salmons said. “But they’ve just been awful laying points” (MSU is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games as chalk).
Salmons and Andrews both have high praise for Spartans coach Mark DAntonio.
“He’s right up there with Saban and Meyer,” said Andrews. “Those guys gets the Nos. 1 and 2 recruiting classes virtually every year, and he’s getting two- and three-star athletes and producing these kinds of teams consistently. This guy is one of the great coaches in college football.”
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (-6), Arlington, Tex., Saturday, Sept. 24
Favorite bettors evidently loved the opening number on this game, Texas A&M -3, pushing the line up the ladder to -6.
The Razorbacks and Aggies have played overtime games against each other in back-to-back seasons, and while A&M won both of those games, the closeness of the contests makes those points enticing.
“A&M is really good, there’s no doubt they’re playing really good ball,” said Andrews. “But I kind of like Arkansas with the points. I think it’s a pretty good outfit, and I think it’s going to be a really tight game.”
Andrews said with the game at AT&T Stadium, Texas A&M gets some, but not full, home-field advantage in terms of the point spread.
Georgia at Ole Miss (-7), Saturday, Sept. 24
While Ole Miss was bet up from -6 to -7 in the first 24 hours of wagering, Bogdanovich sees this game coming at a bad time for the Rebels.
“Georgia got outplayed in Missouri (last week) and got away with one,” Bogdanovich said. “But is there worse possible spot in the world for Ole Miss? They left everything in the field (in a 48-43 loss to Alabama), and that’s the biggest game they’ll play all year. They could have won it – had a big lead, let it slip away – and Alabama is super physical. So not only are you now physically exhausted, you’re mentally exhausted, too. I don’t know how Ole Miss gets up for this one.”
LSU (-3.5) at Auburn, Saturday, Sept. 24
While each week seems to lend more evidence to the notion that Auburn has devolved to a middling college football team, LSU hasn’t been setting the world on fire either, falling well short of national title-type expectations placed upon them ahead of the season.
Two of the bookmakers we spoke to offered differing opinions about LSU, which last week opened a 20-0 lead at Mississippi State but had to hold on for the 23-20 win.
“They got up and sometimes you just go to sleep, and that’s what happened in that game,” Bogdanovich said. “LSU will only get better. They’re pretty young, and when they’re focused, they’re pretty good. I think it’s a pretty good spot for LSU.”
What say you, Chris?
“LSU is just not that good,” Andrews said. “They let a big lead slip away last week. They lost to Wisconsin who maybe isn’t that good. I kind of like Auburn with the points. We know they’re not that good, but I think we’re still kind of kidding ourselves about LSU. Especially when you get them away from Baton Rouge, they’re not going to be that strong.”
Stanford (-3) at UCLA, Saturday, Sept. 24
The -2.5 the Wynn hung on Stanford was too good to pass up, as bettors laid the short price with a Cardinals teams that has dominated the Bruins in modern times. Stanford has beaten UCLA eight times in row, covering the spread in seven of those games, and in none of those matchups have bookmakers asked Stanford to lay a smaller number than they’re laying this week.
Early line moves
Here are games that moved at least 2 points in the favorites’ direction in the first 24 hours of wagering a the Wynn.
East Carolina vs. Virginia Tech
Opening line: Va Tech -9.5
After 24 hours: Va Tech -12
Penn State at Michigan
Opening line: Michigan -15.5
After 24 hours: Michigan -18.5
Wake Forest at Indiana
Opening line: Indiana -5.5
After 24 hours: Indiana -7.5
BYU at West Virginia
Opening line: WVU -3.5
After 24 hours: WVU -6.5
Georgia Southern at Western Michigan
Opening line: WMU -4
After 24 hours: WMU -7
Louisville at Marshall
Opening line: Louisville -22.5
After 24 hours: Marshall -25.5
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M
Opening line: Texas A&M -3
After 24 hours: Texas A&M -6
UT-San Antonio at Old Dominion
Opening line: ODU -1.5
After 24 hours: ODU -4
Here are games that moved at least 2 points in the underdog’s direction in the first 24 hours of wagering the Wynn.
Clemson at Georgia Tech
Opening line: Clemson -11
After 24 hours: Clemson -9
TCU at SMU
Opening line: TCU -24
After 24 hours: TCU -22
Syracuse at UConn
Opening line: UConn -6
After 24 hours: UConn -4
Mississippi State at UMass
Opening line: Miss State -25
After 24 hours: Miss State -22.5
Charlotte at Temple
Opening line: Temple -29.5
After 24 hours: Temple 27.5
Florida at Tennessee
Opening line: Tennessee -8
After 24 hours: Tennessee -6
