Cnotes 2014-15 College Football Previews of Conferences

[CNOTES]

Oregon now paying for injury insurance for Marcus Mariota, others

August 16, 2014 12:05 pm ET


Earlier this week, CBSSports.com's Jeremy Fowler reported that unlike a handful of other FBS schools -- including Florida State and Jameis Winston -- Oregon was not paying for Marcus Mariota's injury protection insurance, or three other Ducks' similar policies.

Oregon announced Friday that that has changed.

"The families of quarterback Marcus Mariota, center Hroniss Grasu, cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu and defensive end Arik Armstead purchased policies this past offseason under the NCAA's 'exceptional student-athlete disability insurance' rule," the Ducks football program said in a statement. "The athletic department will reimburse them for out-of-pocket expenses related to the policies, after Texas A&M and Florida State took the previously unprecedented step of doing so for football players earlier this year."

The Ducks explained the prior lack of such reimbursements by saying they "had been operating with the understanding that paying insurance premiums would violate NCAA rules, based on previous inquiries" -- and that after seeing Florida State and Texas A&M take that step, they asked for permission from the Pac-12 and received it.

The premiums will be paid through the school's NCAA-governed Student Assistance Fund. Oregon senior associate athletic director Craig Pintens previously told CBSSports.com that spending the money to cover the football players' and others' insurance premiums would deplete the Fund beyond the point where it could assist student-athletes with other issues, such as emergency dental work or trips for funerals.

The Ducks' announcement, frankly, sounded as if the school wasn't necessarily thrilled to have been singled out as the latecomers to the reimbursement party.

"While the new interpretation raises complicated questions such as how many athletes per year can have premiums covered by the school, and what an appropriate value for such policies should be, UO officials wanted to provide relief for the four families who bought policies this year," it read.

 

[cloverleaf]

Maybe Oregon should provide the parents of these players a new van to travel to and from home games this season if the player is rated exceptional, maybe a nice RV (30 footer minimum). Airline tickets to away games would also be great for parents...fully insured a must.

Where does this crap ever end? Jez, what about the better band members who might blow to hard and suffer a serious injury...gone is a big time opportunity in music. Don't they need the school to pay for their insurance against injury? Why the hell not?

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

College football is only 11 days away; here is the AP top 6.......

6) Auburn-- Curious to see if Marshall improved as a passer.

5) Ohio State-- Have four new starters on OL, but have a senior QB

4) Oklahoma-- Last eight years, are 30-17 vs spread as home favorite.

3) Oregon-- Already lost their left tackle for season.

2) Alabama-- Haven't decided on a starting QB yet.

1) Florida State-- Heavy is the head that wears the crown.

**********

 

[CNOTES]

2014 Big 12 Predictions

August 17, 2014


Bovada has Oklahoma installed as the -150 favorite to win the Big 12, the only power league that doesn't currently have a championship game. The Sooners have the sixth-shortest odds (12/1) to win the national title.

OU finished 2013 in impressive fashion, winning four in a row both straight up and against the spread, including a pair of victories as a double-digit underdog. Bob Stoops' team prevailed in the Bedlam matchup over Oklahoma State in Stillwater before trouncing Alabama by a 45-31 count as a 15-point 'dog.

Oklahoma returns five starters on offense and nine on defense. With his spectacular performance in New Orleans, third-year sophomore quarterback Trevor Knight is entrenched as the clear-cut starter. He was up-and-down last season, making five starts while splitting snaps with Blake Bell. Knight had a 9/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and also rushed for 445 yards and two scores. He averaged 6.6 yards per carry.

OU's defense gave up 22.1 points per game last year and lost just two starters and six lettermen from this unit. However, there's the possibility that leading tackler Frank Shannon could be suspended for the season. After he was the subject of an alleged sexual assault incident, Shannon was suspended by the school for the entire 2014 campaign. But since charges haven't been filed, Shannon is still practicing with the team while the suspension is being appealed.

OU gets Baylor, Kansas State, Tennessee and Oklahoma State in Norman. The Sooners get an open date ahead of a road game at TCU, but they must play at Texas Tech in a potential letdown scenario the week after hosting Baylor in a revenge spot.

If Shannon gets reinstated, I believe OU has a great shot at getting to the College Football Playoff, especially if Knight looks like the signal caller that outplayed A.J. McCarron at the Sugar Bowl. Gamblers can take Oklahoma as "yes" to make the semifinal playoffs for a +130 payout at Sportsbook.ag ("no" is -160).

The Shannon situation isn't the only one to monitor. Missouri transfer Dorial Green-Beckham, a rising junior wide receiver who was the nation's No. 1 recruit in the 2012 prep class, is trying to get eligible for 2014. The school has filed an appeal to give him immediate eligibility based on an obscure rule. Apparently the appeal has hope since charges weren't filed against DGB for the incident, albeit his third at Mizzou, that didn't result in criminal charges.

Baylor has +275 odds to win the Big 12 title (risk $100 to win $275), 30/1 odds to win the national championship. Despite getting interest from Texas, Art Briles returns for the seventh year of his tenure. The offensive guru has built the Bears into a national power, leading the school to four straight bowl games and a pair of double-digit win campaigns.

Baylor finally moves into its new on-campus stadium after playing at 5-6 miles away from campus for decades. On Sunday, August 31, the Bears will host SMU at their new stadium. They should own their September opponents and cruise into Austin on October 4 with a 4-0 record.

Baylor returns six starters on offense and four on defense. Bryce Petty is a leading Heisman candidate after a banner junior campaign in which he garnered Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year honors. Petty posted an incredible 32/3 TD-INT ratio while also rushing for 14 TDs.

Petty has a slew of talented WRs and an All-American candidate in RB Shock Linwood, who rushed for 881 yards and eight TDs while averaging 6.9 YPC in 2013. WR Antwan Godley is looking to improve on a banner season in which he hauled in 71 receptions for 1,339 yards and 13 TDs.

The Bears' defense was salty last year, giving up only 23.5 PPG after allowing 37.2 PPG in 2012. Seven starters are gone from that unit, but playmakers like LB Bryce Hager (second-team All Big 12), DE Shawn Oakman (10.5 tackles for loss) and DE Jamal Palmer (five sacks, seven QB hurries) are back.

Texas has turned to former Louisville coach Charlie Strong after four consecutive disappointing seasons to end the Mack Brown Era. Strong may need some work on the public-relation skills required with The Longhorn Network, but he's more than qualified to lead this storied program back into national-title contention on a regular basis. It probably won't be this year, however.

Strong should've been given a head-coaching gig much earlier in his career, but he's got one of the country's most coveted jobs now. He has spent most of the summer weeding out the bad apples on his roster, sending more than a half-dozen players packing from the program or into indefinite suspensions.

The key for this squad could be the health of QB David Ash, who has a history of concussions and made only three starts in 2013. Ash has 21 career starts under his belt, throwing seven TD passes compared to only two interceptions in his limited playing time last year.

After going 8-5, Texas brings back six starters on offense and eight on defense. DE Cedric Reed is one of the Big 12's best pass rushers, racking up 10 sacks and 16 QB hurries last year. Strong excels on this side of the ball and we can all expect this unit to be vastly improved.

Texas has +750 odds to win the league and is an 85/1 longshot to win the national title. The Longhorns' win total is seven but it is heavily shaded to the 'over' at a chalky -165 price ('under' +135).

Kansas State has 10/1 odds to win the Big 12 and is a 100/1 longshot to win the national title. The Wildcats have a win total of 7.5 ('over' -140, 'under' +110). They return six starters on offense and five on defense from a team that compile an 8-5 record both SU and ATS.

Senior QB Jake Waters had a solid season in his first as a starter after transferring in from junior college. Waters completed 61.2 percent of his throws for 2,469 passing yards, with an 18/9 TD-INT ratio. He also had six rushing scores.

Waters has his favorite WR back in Tyler Lockett, who had 81 catches for 1,262 yards and 11 TDs. The offense must replace leading rusher John Hubert and as of August 16, a starter at RB had yet to be named.

The K-State defense allowed only 22.9 PPG in 2013. This unit will be led by senior DE Ryan Mueller, who was a second-team All-American selection after registering 11.5 sacks and making seven tackles for a loss.

Oklahoma State appears to be approaching a transition year, especially when you consider the loss of eight of the defense's top nine tacklers. Mike Gundy's squad has 10/1 odds to win the conference and 200/1 odds to win the national title. The Cowboys have a win total of 7.5 ('under' -140, 'over' +110).

With Clint Chelf transferring, JW Walsh is now the man at QB. Walsh has made eight career starts, throwing 22 TD passes compared to only eight interceptions. He has a veteran RB in Desmond Roland and is hoping to get explosive plays from juco transfer Tyreek Hill and redshirt freshman Ra'Shaad Samples.

Oklahoma State has won at least nine games in five of the last six seasons and has enjoyed three double-digit win years in the last four. The Cowboys went 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS in 2013. They bring back just eight total starters, four on each side of the ball. Gundy's squad is looking to replace 32 lost lettermen.

Oklahoma State will face the defending national champs in the season opener in Arlington. The Pokies should be favored in their next five games, but their last four games will be extremely difficult. They play at K-State, at home against Texas, at Baylor and then at Oklahoma.

TCU is coming off an abysmal 4-8 season (both SU and ATS) in which it missed the posteason for the first time since 2004. The Horned Frogs bring back eight starters on offense and defense, but they suffered a massive blow when 2012 Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Devonte Fields was dismissed from the program in the wake of an off-the-field incident.

Gary Patterson's team owns 14/1 odds (Bovada) to win the Big 12 and is 175/1 to win the national title at Sportsbook.ag. The Horned Frogs have a win total of eight ('over' +140, 'under' -170).

Texas A&M transfer Matt Joeckel and junior Trevone Boykin are battling it out for the starting QB job. Boykin has started 16 games at QB in two seasons when the departed Casey Pachall was out of the lineup. He has a 22/17 TD-INT ratio and ran for seven TDs last year. When Pachall was on the field, Boykin played wide receiver. In fact, he had 26 receptions for 204 years in only five games at the position.

TCU returns five of its six top pass catchers and leading rusher B.J. Catalon, who averaged 5.3 YPC and ran for six TDs in 2013.

Even without Fields, Patterson will probably have his best defense since 2010. Granted, this unit has faced much tougher competition in the Big 12, but TCU's defenses over the last three seasons have looked nothing like the units that surrendered only 12.0, 12.8 and 11.3 PPG from 2008-2010.

Sam Carter and Chris Hackett, both of whom garnered second-team All Big 12 honors last year, are two of the nation's premier safeties.

Texas Tech won its first seven games of the Kliff Kingsbury era, rising to No. 10 in the national rankings. But the Red Raiders lost five straight to close the regular season after getting into the meat of their schedule. They salvaged the year with a 37-23 win over Arizona State as 14-point underdogs.

Texas Tech returns nine starters on offense but only four on 'D.' If it can beat Arkansas at home in Week 3, Texas Tech will almost certainly go into Big 12 play with a 3-0 record and an open date leading into its league opener at Oklahoma State

The Red Raiders have 20/1 odds to win the conference, 500/1 odds to win the national title. They have a win total of 6.5 ('over' -175, 'under' +140).

Sophomore Davis Webb will be the starting QB. As a freshman, Webb threw for 2,718 yards in just six starts. He had a 20/9 TD-INT ratio. He loses his two favorite targets, but Texas Tech still has five players who had 28 or more catches back.

Like Will Muschamp at Florida, Mike London at Virginia, Kyle Flood at Rutgers and quite a few others, West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen goes into the 2014 campaign on a serious hot seat in Morgantown. The Mountaineers have lost 14 of their 20 games with nine of those defeats coming by double-digit margins. Four of the six victories came over William & Mary, Georgia State, Iowa State and Kansas. They finished last year 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS.

Just like Holgorsen said at Big 12 Media Days, "the days of dominating the Big East are long gone."

WVU brings back six starters on offense and seven on defense. Clint Trickett will start at QB and he has his top three WRs returning. Holgorsen is an offensive guru and will find a way for WVU to score enough points to win some games, but let's remember that the Mountaineers lost three games in 2013 when they scored 42, 40 and 44 points.

Tony Gibson is the new defensive coordinator and he faces a Herculean task in turning this unit around. In its first two seasons in the Big 12, WVU has given up 38.1 and 33.3 PPG in '12 and '13, respectively. Those numbers have got to get better for WVU to go bowling and for Holgorsen to keep his job.

The schedule doesn't help the coach's cause. WVU opens up against Alabama at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta and also has to play at Maryland in non-conference play. The Mountaineers will be favored at home against Towson and Kansas, but they might be underdogs in every other contest. Possible victories are home games vs. TCU and Kansas State, in addition to at Iowa State It's a big "if" to imply WVU wins those five games but if it does, it can go bowling by stealing another. The most likely spots are at Maryland, at Texas Tech and at Oklahoma State, but I don't see the Mountaineers winning any of those games.

Iowa State lost five one-possession games in 2013. Paul Rhoads' team lost nine of its first 10 games, but it felt decent after beating Kansas 34-0 at home and besting WVU 52-44 in triple overtime to conclude the year.

ISU returns 10 starters on offense and five on defense. In non-conference action, the Cyclones host North Dakota State and Toledo and go on the road to face arch-rival Iowa.

Kansas has won only four of 24 games on Charlie Weis' watch. Two of those victories came over FCS schools (South Dakota State and South Dakota), with the others coming over Louisiana Tech and WVU. Weis needs to produce some victories, probably at least five, in order to see a fourth season in Lawrence.

After going 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS, KU returns eight starters on offense and nine on defense. The biggest addition for the Jayhawks is WR Nick Harwell, a transfer from Miami (OH.) who had more than 3,000 receiving yards in three season in the MAC.

With Jake Heaps transferring to Miami, sophomore Montell Cozart takes over as the starting signal caller. He made three starts as true freshman, rushing for 214 yards and throwing for 227.

The defense is led by LB Ben Heeney, who led KU in tackles while earning first-team All Big 12 honors last year. Heeney had 9.5 tackles for loss and three interceptions. DEs Michael Reynolds and Ben Goodman are playmakers who combined for 9.5 sacks and eight tackles for loss in '13.

**Fearless Predictions**

2014 Win-Loss Projections

School Record Win Total (5Dimes) Bowl Projection

Oklahoma 12-0 10.5 College Football Playoff #2 vs. #3

Baylor 11-1 9.5 Cotton Bowl vs. Oregon

TCU 8-4 8 Alamo Bowl vs. Washington

Texas 7-5 7 Texas Bowl vs. Texas A&M

Oklahoma State 7-5 7.5 Buffalo Wild Wings vs. Arizona

Kansas State 7-5 7.5 Liberty Bowl vs. Missouri


Texas Tech 6-6 6.5 Russell Athletic vs. ACC

Iowa State 4-8 3.5 'over' -165 --

West Virginia 4-8 4.5 'under' -125 --

Kansas 2-10 3 'over' -140 --


**Games to Watch**

1. Baylor at Oklahoma - Baylor has an open date and then a home game against Kansas in the two weeks leading into this game that'll decide the Big 12 and likely lead to a spot in the College Football Playoff. OU also has an open date and then a road date with Iowa State coming into this revenge showdown. The Sooners led 5-3 at Baylor midway through the second quarter in Waco last year, but the Bears scored 28 unanswered points en route to a 41-12 triumph.

2. Baylor at Texas - This will be Baylor's first true test and Charlie Strong will have a great defensive plan for Bryce Petty and company. This is also a look-ahead scenario for the Longhorns, who will have their Red River Rivalry date with Oklahoma the following week.

3. Oklahoma vs. Texas - Another revenge situation for the Sooners, who got blasted 36-20 by Texas last year. This will be a fourth difficult game for the Longhorns in their first six. They might be looking at a 2-4 record with a loss, though 3-3 is more likely as I have them edging BYU in Week 2.

4. Oklahoma at TCU - OU will have two weeks to prep for the Horned Frogs following an off week. TCU has a good chance to be 3-0 with a healthy roster. I make the healthy remark because Patterson's squad has two open dates in September. This could be a real tester for the Sooners.

5. Oklahoma State at Oklahoma - One of those "you never know" games. The Bedlam matchup has seen its share of shockers. In his first season in Stillwater in 2001, Les Miles led a 3-7 Oklahoma State team into Norman. With a great shot at repeating as Big 12 and national champs, the Sooners lost a 16-13 decision. The Cowboys, who have a young team that should be better come November, have dropped back-to-back heartbreakers to OU.

**Players to Watch**

1. Bryce Petty (Baylor QB) -- He's going to put up incredible numbers and be in the Heisman conversation. Can Petty orchestrate a road win over OU in Norman on Nov. 8?

2. Trevor Knight (Oklahoma QB) - Like most freshman QBs, Knight was up and down in 2013. But he was confident, composed and on the money in the Sugar Bowl win over Alabama.

3. Cedric Reed (Texas DE) -- In Strong's scheme, Reed should have another monster season. And he had 10 sacks, nine tackles for loss and 16 QB hurries in 2013.

4. Tyler Lockett (Kansas State WR) - He earned first-team All Big 12 and second-team All-American honors last season by catching 81 balls for 1,262 yards and 11 TDs. The Wildcats need him to produce even more in 2014.

5. Tyreek Hill (Oklahoma St. WR/RB) - The track star has blazing speed and can play multiple positions. Don't be surprised if he makes big plays galore rushing, receiving and on special teams.

6. Shock Linwood (Baylor RB) - With Lache Seastrunk and Glasco Martin gone, Linwood will get more touches and, accordingly, produce more yards and TDs.

7. Dorial Green-Beckham (Oklahoma WR) - If he's declared eligible, watch out! OU is currently appealing for the Missouri transfer to be granted immediate eligibility.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Since 2006, Oklahoma owns a 30-17-1 spread record as a home favorite.

-- Baylor WR Clay Fuller suffered a broken clavicle making a diving catch at an Aug. 8 practice. He is expected to miss 6-8 weeks with a hopeful return at Texas on Oct. 4. Fuller had 32 receptions for 512 yards and three TDs in 2013.

-- WVU is 4-10 ATS as a home favorite during Holgorsen's tenure.

-- TCU's prize recruit in the 2014 class, RB Shaun Nixon, was lost for the season this past week due to a knee injury.

-- Since 2011, TCU has limped to 5-12-1 spread record at home.

 

[CNOTES]

2014 ACC Predictions

August 21, 2014


**Skinny**

Following 12 years of mediocrity for Florida State standards, the storied program returned to prominence in 2013 and won its first national title since 1999. The Seminoles played from behind all night in the BCS Championship Game, only to rally and beat Auburn 34-31 thanks to a late touchdown pass from Jameis Winston.

Winston is one of seven offensive starters, along with six starters on defense, returning from a team that went 14-0 straight up and 11-2-1 against the spread. As a redshirt freshman, Winston won the Heisman by throwing for 4,057 yards with a 40/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Winston will have a pair of All-American candidates to throw to in WR Rashad Greene and TE Nick O'Leary. Greene had 76 receptions for 1,128 yards and nine TDs, while O'Leary caught 33 balls for 557 yards and seven TDs.

FSU's defense lost its coordinator and five of its top six tacklers. Nevertheless, new DC Charles Kelly has plenty of talent on hand. The leaders of this unit will include DE Mario Edwards, CB PJ Williams and LB Terrance Smith.

FSU is an enormous -340 'chalk' to win a third consecutive ACC Championship. Jimbo Fisher's team is also the favorite to repeat as national champs with a +360 price tag (risk $100 to win $360). The Seminoles have a season win total of 11.5 ('under' -120, 'over' -110).

FSU's schedule sets up nicely for it to get to the first College Football Playoff. The season opener at Jerry World in Arlington comes against an Oklahoma St. squad that lost a ton of talent from last season's 10-win team. Then the 'Noles get their toughest games (vs. Clemson, vs. Notre Dame and vs. Florida) at home in Tallahassee.

If there's a spot that could present a lot of danger, it might be an Oct. 30 date at Louisville. For more than a decade, FSU has been notorious for finding a way to lose in Thursday night road assignments. In fact, the 'Noles last trip to Papa John's Stadium resulted in a 2002 loss on a Thursday night.

Clemson is going to have its best defense of the Dabo Swinney Era. Senior DE Vic Beasley garnered first-team All-American honors as a junior, producing 13 sacks, 10 tackles for loss and 12 QB hurries.

Brent Venables, in his third year since coming over from Oklahoma, has worked wonders on this side of the ball. The Tigers allowed just 24.8 and 22.2 points per game in 2012 and '13, respectively. Remember, he inherited a unit that gave up 70 points to Geno Smith and West Va. in the Orange Bowl before his arrival.

Swinney has one of the best combinations of coordinators in the nation, but OC Chad Morris won't have Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins at his disposal any longer. Boyd and Watkins are off to the NFL after shattering the school record books and leading Clemson to three straight double-digit win seasons.

Senior QB Cole Stoudt takes over at center, but he could get pushed by true freshman Deshaun Watson at some point during the season. Watson, the prize jewel of the team's 2014 recruiting haul, was considered by most as the second-best dual-threat QB coming out of high school. Stoudt hasn't seen much significant playing time, but he has an 8/1 career TD-INT ratio. He completed 47-of-59 throws (79.7%) for 415 yards and five TDs without an interception last year. Stoudt will definitely get the starting nod in Week 1 at Georgia.

Clemson will play three of its four toughest games in September. After opening in Athens, where UGA will seeking to avenge a heartbreaking loss in Death Valley last year, Clemson will get an open date ahead of its trip to FSU on Sept. 20. Then the Tigers get North Carolina at home the next week. They close the regular season at home against South Carolina, which has won five in a row over its in-state rival by double-digit margins.

Clemson has the third-shortest odds to win the ACC (+850, risk $100 to win $850) and 80/1 odds to win the national title. The Tigers have a win total of 8.5 ('under' -135, 'over' -105).

Louisville went 41-9 in Bobby Petrino's previous tenure at the school. After a disastrous 13-game tenure with the Atlanta Falcons, followed by a nice run at Arkansas that ended in turmoil, chaos and humiliation for him and his family, Petrino is back at U of L with a new lease on life and his career.

Following a year off to work on his marriage and an eight-win campaign at Western Ky., Petrino takes over for Charlie Strong as the Cardinals enter the ACC. They'll do so without three first-round picks from the recent NFL Draft, including three-year starting QB Teddy Bridgewater.

Louisville went 12-1 in 2013 with its only loss coming when it allowed a double-digit advantage to get away in a 38-35 home loss to Central Florida. The Cardinals return seven starters on offense but only four on defense.

Petrino hired Todd Grantham as his new DC after he spent four years at UGA in the same position. Grantham, who got a guaranteed five-year contract worth nearly $1 million per, is a feisty character who nearly came to blows with former Vandy coach James Franklin three years ago. According to an SI report earlier this week, Petrino and Grantham have been feuding frequently. (The more things change, the more BP stays the same, although he may have an equal jackass in Grantham.)

U of L has a nice tandem of RBs with Dominique Brown (825 rushing yards, eight TDs and a 5.1 YPC average in 2013) and Michael Dyer, the former star at Auburn who won MVP honors in the BCS Championship Game win over Oregon in January of 2011). Also, four of the top five pass catchers are back, including DaVante Parker, who had 12 TD receptions and earned first-team All-AAC honors.

The question mark is at QB, but reports out of Louisville indicate that third-year sophomore Will Gardner has looked sharp at camp. He's got good size (6'5"), nice talent around him and an outstanding QB tutor in Petrino. Another positive going for Gardner is that if U of L can win its opener over Miami, he can develop during a soft six-game stretch that follows. The Cardinals will probably be favored in their first six games and could be 6-0 going into an Oct. 11 showdown at Clemson.

U of L has 18/1 odds to win the ACC, 300/1 to win the national title. The Cards have a win total of eight ('over' -125, 'under' +105).

Syracuse went 7-6 SU and 8-5 ATS in its debut season in the ACC. The Orange finished in style with a 21-17 win over Minnesota as a 4.5-point underdog in the Texas Bowl.

Scott Shafer's squad returns eight starters on offense and seven on defense. Junior QB Terrel Hunt had a 6-4 record in his 10 starts, rushing for 500 yards and seven TDs. Hunt threw for 1,638 yards with a 10/8 TD-INT ratio.

North Carolina St. limped to a 3-9 SU record and a 3-8-1 ATS mark in Dave Doeren's first year at the helm. The Wolfpack bring back seven starters on each side of the ball, but the biggest thing going for it is new QB Jacoby Brissett.

The Florida transfer was thrown to the wolves as a true freshman, taking his first collegiate snaps at top-ranked LSU as a surprise starter when the two QBs ahead of him were injured. Brissett, who has good size and a strong arm, got beaten out by Jeff Driskel and transferred after his sophomore campaign at UF. He sat out 2013 and will have two years of eligibility.

N.C. St. has a win total of 5.5 ('over' -165, 'under' -135). If the Pack can prevail at South Fla. in Week 3, the rest of the non-conference slate leaves open the door to a potential 4-0 start going into a Sept. 27 home game vs. FSU.

Boston College enjoyed a surprisingly successful first season under Steve Addazio, who won more games than Frank Spaziani in the two previous years combined. Addazio rode the workhorse legs of RB Andre Williams to a 7-6 record both SU and ATS. Williams is off to the pros after rushing for 2,177 yards and 18 TDs (6.1 YPC average) to become the school's all-time leading rusher.

BC brings back only three starters on offense and six on defense. The Eagles have to replace four-year starting QB Chase Rettig, who had a 17/8 TD-INT ratio in 2013. Like N.C. St., BC will turn to a Florida transfer to become its starter under center.

That will be senior Tyler Murphy, who was recruited to UF by Addazio when he was on Urban Meyer's staff. Murphy never touched the field until Driskel broke his leg in Week 3 last season. Murphy took over and promptly led the Gators to wins over Tennessee, Kentucky and Arkansas. However, he sustained a shoulder injury in a 17-6 loss at LSU.

Murphy played through the pain for three more weeks, but he wasn't the same and was eventually shut down for the season after a disastrous performance against Vanderbilt. Murphy will play with an inexperience group of WRs that's leading pass catcher had only nine receptions last year.

Wake Forest is beginning a complete rebuilding project with new head coach Dave Clawson, who replaces Jim Grobe after his tenure took a turn for the worse once the Riley Skinner Era ended. Clawson inherits a 4-8 squad that returns five starters on each side of the ball.

The Demon Deacons must replace four-year starter Tanner Price, who finished second in school history (behind only Skinner) in passing yards. Clawson declared his new starter early in camp, electing to go with true freshman John Wolford. If Clawson can get Wake to its first bowl game since 2011, he should be in the running for ACC Coach of the Year honors.

The ACC Coastal Division is wide open. North Carolina owns the second-shortest odds (8/1) to dethrone FSU as conference champs. Larry Fedora's team has 100/1 odds to win the national title and has a win total of 8.5 ('under' -160, 'over' +130).

UNC lost five of its first six games in 2013, only to win six of its last seven behind the stellar play of QB Marquise Williams. The only defeat during this stretch was a 27-25 heartbreaker at Duke in the regular-season finale. The Tar Heels blasted Cincinnati 39-17 at the Belk Bowl, hooking up their backers as 2.5-point 'chalk.'

Fedora has eight starters back on offense and seven on defense. Williams will try to build on his breakout campaign that saw him rush for a team-high 536 yards and six TDs. He threw for 1,698 yards with a 15/6 TD-INT ratio in nine games (six starts). Williams has four of his top five WRs returning along with top RB T.J. Logan, who averaged 5.7 YPC last year.

Va. Tech posted double-digit wins in its first eight seasons in the ACC. However, the Hokies are only 15-11 over the last two years. Even worse for our purposes, they have limped to an abysmal 12-27-1 spread record in their last 40 games.

Va. Tech returns nine starters on offense and five on defense. The Hokies have 10/1 odds to win the ACC, 200/1 odds to win the national title. Their win total is eight ('over' -135, 'under' +105).

Va. Tech is hoping to get a spark at QB from Texas Tech transfer Michael Brewer, who has a nice set of skill players around him. Trey Edmunds rushed for 675 yards and 10 TDs as a redshirt freshman last season, while the Hokies have a trio of WRs (Willie Byrn, Demitri Knowles and Joshua Stanford), who combined to make 136 catches for nearly 2,000 yards.

Bud Foster's secondary is one of the country's best. Kendall Fuller was the ACC's Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2013 when he had six interceptions and 11 passes broken up. Luther Maddy is a dynamic pass rusher who tallied 6.5 sacks and 16 QB hurries.

Miami is still looking for its first Coastal title under Al Golden, who is going into his fourth season. The Hurricanes won their first seven games last year, only to then drop three in a row by 18 points or more. Injuries took their toll late in the season, especially the loss of star RB Duke Johnson, and they got smashed 36-9 by Louisville in the postseason.

UM has 20/1 odds to win the ACC, 200/1 odds to win the national championship. The 'Canes have a win total of 7.5 shaded to the 'over' at a -130 price.

Journeyman QB Jake Heaps, who has previous stops at BYU and Kansas and was one of the nation's top prep QBs several years ago, appears poised to get the first crack at the QB job -- at least in the opener at Louisville. That's because Ryan Williams remains injured (with hope of returning in October) and redshirt freshman Kevin Olsen is facing a one-game suspension.

The good news is that Johnson is back and healthy. He had 920 rushing yards for six TDs with a 6.1 YPC average before going down to a season-ending injury . The 'Canes fell apart without the first-team All-ACC performer, who is also a threat on special teams.

WR Phillip Dorsett was also bitten by the injury bag in 2013, but he's back healthy and ready to go. On the flip side, standout safety Rayshwan Jenkins has already been lost to a season-ending injury. Denzel Perryman will be the leader on defense after making a team-high 108 tackles.

Duke has been hit hard by a pair of injuries in the last week. First, MLB Kelby Brown suffered a season-ending ACL tear, the third of his career. This time it was to his left knee after twice injuring the right knee. Brown was a first-team All-ACC selection in 2013 when he made 114 tackles (10 for loss), recorded one sack, produced two interceptions and registered eight QB hurries.

Another All-ACC performer, third-team TE Braxton Deaver, also tore his ACL and is out for the year. Deaver was second on the team in receptions (46) and receiving yards (600) and had four TD catches.

Due to those losses, Duke brings back seven starters on offense and five on defense. David Cutcliffe took his program to a second straight bowl game and the school's first appearance in the ACC Championship Game. The Blue Devils finished 10-4 SU and 10-3-1 ATS and two of their losses were heartbreakers, a 58-55 home loss to Pitt and a 52-48 setback to Texas A&M at the Chick-fil-A Bowl.

Anthony Boone returns for his second full season as the starting QB. He had a 13/13 TD-INT ratio and five rushing TDs in 2013. His main playmaker Jamison Crowder is a two-time All-ACC selection who is off an 11-TD campaign. Crowder had eight TD receptions, two TDs on punt returns and a rushing score. He had 108 receptions for 1,360 yards.

Duke has 55/1 odds to win the ACC, 1,000/1 odds to win the national title and a win total of 8.5 ('under' -185).

Pittsburgh has gone to back-to-back bowl games in the first two seasons on Paul Chryst's watch, yet it is just .500 (13-13 SU) since he took over. The Panthers are off a 7-6 campaign that included a 30-27 win over Bowling Green as 6.5-point underdogs at the Little Caesar's Bowl.

Pitt brings back eight starters on offense and five on defense. Tom Savage (21/9 TD-INT) is gone, however, so Chad Voytik will have big shoes to replace. He will benefit from the return of the team's top RBs, though, and All-American candidate Tyler Boyd. As a freshman last season, Boyd garnered first-team Freshman All-American honors and was a second-team All-ACC selection. He hauled in 85 receptions for 1,174 yards and seven TDs.

The Panthers have 45/1 odds to win the ACC, 1,000/1 odds to win the national championship. They have a win total of 7.5 ('under' -150).

Paul Johnson enters his seventh season at Ga. Tech and it could be a crucial one. The Yellow Jackets won 20 games in his first two years, but they are only three games over .500 since then. Johnson has taken Ga. Tech to six consecutive bowl games, but they are 1-5 in those postseason appearances. I think Johnson is an outstanding coach, but Ga. Tech has a history of getting rid of coaches (think Chan Gailey) that don't show progress and consistently lose to Georgia.

Ga. Tech went 7-6 SU and 6-6-1 ATS in 2013, losing a 25-17 decision to Ole Miss at the Music City Bowl. The Yellow Jackets return six starters on offense and four on defense. Third-year sophomore QB Justin Thomas will inherit the QB job from the departed Vad Lee.

Ga. Tech has 30/1 odds to win the ACC and a win total of 6.5 ('over' -130).

Virginia has a head coach on a blazing hot seat. During Mike London's four-year tenure, UVA has posted records of 4-8, 8-5, 4-8 and 2-10. The Cavaliers won two of their first three games in 2013 (over BYU and VMI at home) but ended the season on a nine-game losing streak. Eight of those nine defeats came in double-digit fashion, including a 48-27 home loss to Ball St. and 59-10 home loss to Clemson.

Virginia brings back eight starters on offense and nine on defense. London probably needs to go bowling to see a fifth year in Charlottesville.

Fearless Predictions

2014 Win-Loss Projections

School Record Win Total (5Dimes) Bowl Projection

Atlantic Division

Florida State 13-0 11.5 #1 vs. #4 Alabama in College Football Playoff

Clemson 8-4 8.5 Belk Bowl vs. Auburn

Louisville 8-4 8 Sun Bowl vs. Pac-12

Syracuse 5-7 6.5 -

N.C. State 5-7 5.5 -

Boston College 4-8 4.5 -

Wake Forest 3-9 4.5 -


Coastal Division Division

North Carolina 9-4 8.5 Russell Athletic vs. Big 12

Virgina Tech 8-4 8 Independence vs. LSU

Pittsburgh 8-4 7.5 St. Petersburg vs. American

Georgia Tech 8-4 6.5 Military Bowl vs. American

Duke 8-4 8.5 Music City vs. Tennessee

Miami 7-5 7.5 Pinstripe vs. Big Ten

Virginia 3-9 3.5 -


**Games to Watch**

1. Clemson at FSU - Both teams get an open date to prepare for this crucial showdown that will likely decide the Atlantic. The 'Noles embarrassed Clemson in a 51-14 blowout last year.

2. FSU at Louisville - This is FSU's most dangerous game outside of Tallahassee. U of L's new starting QB Will Gardner will have plenty of experience and 11 days to prepare for this Oct. 30 matchup. Can DC Todd Grantham come up with a scheme to contain Jameis Winston and FSU's high-octane offense?

3. Va. Tech at North Carolina - This Oct. 4 tussle could go a long way toward determining the Coastal loop. The Hokies will be playing their sixth game in six weeks, while UNC will be returning home following a pair of tough road games at East Carolina and at Clemson.

4. North Carolina at Miami - The 'Canes will have a few extra days to prepare because they play at Va. Tech the previous Thursday. If this is an a noon Eastern game, heat could play a factor because South Florida often has mid-September-like temperatures on Nov. 1. The Tar Heels will be playing their seventh game in seven weeks and their third road contest in a four-week span.

5. Florida at FSU - I haven't been including non-conference games in this section, but I'll make an exception here. After going nearly two decades without a win in Tallahassee, Florida has won at Doak Campbell in four of its last five trips up I-75 (until you smell it) and down I-10 (until you step in it). There's a good chance that FSU will be undefeated, and there's a slight chance that its (lack of) schedule strength could leave it in trouble for a College Football Playoff bid if there are handful of contenders with unbeaten records or with one loss. There are many "ifs" in play here but if Jeff Driskel has a big year, if UF stays healthy and if Florida's defense turns into one of the nation's top units, this will be the most physical game the 'Noles play all year. I think Will Muschamp's job will be secure at this point but if it isn't and is on the line, you know the Gators will bring an incredible amount of intensity to this one.

**Players to Watch**

1. Jameis Winston (FSU QB) - If he stays healthy and out of trouble and is the same player we saw last year, it's hard to envision the Seminoles not making the College Football Playoff, especially with their hardest games coming at home. This kid handled the scrutiny well last season. Can he do it again?

2. Vic Beasley (Clemson QB) -- If Clemson is going to pull a stunner in Tallahassee to shake up the conference, it will need a monster performance from Beasley against FSU. And I'm not talking about one sack and several pressures on Winston. I'm talking about drawing the opposing offensive tackle into several false starts, sacking and forcing Winston to fumble twice and basically just dominating the football game (think Florida's Alex Brown making five sacks against Tennessee's Tee Martin in a 23-21 Gator win in 1999).

3. Duke Johnson (Miami RB) - The Coastal is wide open and a dynamic playmaker like Johnson could be the difference in who wins this division. If he's healthy and UM develops an adequate passing attack to prevent defenses from focusing on him too much, Johnson could be in the Heisman conversation. The 'Canes will go as far as Johnson takes them.

4. Marquise Williams (North Carolina QB) - This dual-threat QB enjoyed a breakout 2013 and should be even better in 2014. Williams will need to thrive on the road with five difficult games at East Carolina, at Clemson, at Notre Dame, at Miami and at Duke.

5. Jamison Crowder (Duke WR) - With Duke losing its stud tight end, QB Anthony Boone will lean on Crowder even more. The Blue Devils will need explosive players from their dynamic wideout and a few TDs on special-teams would also help. He's certainly capable as he's proved throughout his stellar career for the Blue Devils.

 

[CNOTES]

Team to Watch - Louisville

August 22, 2014


Here we go again! The rollercoaster ride that is Bobby Petrino has returned for an encore at Louisville (SUR 12-1, PSR 6-7), completing a roundabout (or maybe we should say "Roustabout" instead, honoring one of our favorite Elvis movies when he tried to romance Sue Ane Langdon and rode a motorcycle, a well-publicized Petrino behavior trait and mode of transport in recent years) seven-year odyssey around various locales in the South.

The 'Ville that Petrino re-inherits from Charlie Strong will also now be operating out of a higher-priced neighborhood in the ACC and not Conference USA or the Big East, as in Petrino's first tour of duty. Though it should be noted that the Cards have fared pretty well when stepping up the past few seasons, romping past ACC rep Miami by a 36-9 count in last December's Russell Athletic Bowl, and beating SEC Florida in the Sugar Bowl the year before. And while the top of the ACC is treacherous, the likes of Virginia, Wake Forest, NC State, and Boston College (all new foes in 2014) hardly look any better than the middle-rung Big East and AAC sorts that Strong's Louisville routinely handled the past few years.

When last seen at Papa John's Stadium at the end of the 2006 season, Petrino had led the Cardinals to a 41-9 record he previous four seasons and a BCS berth in the 2007 Orange Bowl. But that was all before a dizzying trek to the Atlanta Falcons, Arkansas, and Western Kentucky, with Petrino leaving plenty of scorched earth and "good riddance" references from respective fan bases.

All of that, however, has made little difference to Louisville, which has indicated before that it doesn't mind employing coaches with some baggage (such as Rick Pitino), taking Al Davis' famous "Just win, baby" to heart. Whatever ethical shortcomings attached to Petrino and his earlier Card regime were apparently easy to overlook, too, because Bobby won, an end that seems to justify all means at Louisville. When Petrino successor Steve Kragthorpe tried to clean out some of Petrino's bad seeds left over in the program, the locals revolted, especially because the Cards regressed quickly in the W-L column upon Petrino's 2007 departure.

Petrino has also reconvened some old friends on staff, including Garrick McGee, Petrino's o.c. at Arkansas who had been head coach at UAB the past two seasons. Given the choice of continuing to coach in front of empty seats at Legion Field, or coordinating the offense of an expected ACC contender, McGee's choice was obvious.

Petrino returns to a program that also scaled some impressive the heights under predecessor Strong, who left for the Texas job after leading the Cards to the BCS in 2012 and winning another 12 games last season. Though there are some obvious lineup holes to fill from a year ago, we would discount those who believe the Cards might be due for a big drop-off. Rather, this looks like a situation in which an operator like Petrino can really flourish.

Moreover, the noted trash talking by recent Cards teams, which made some foes look as intimidated as Floyd Patterson once did when stepping into the ring vs. Sonny Liston, will also be embraced by Petrino.

Concern number one at Papa John's is not as much Petrino succeeding Strong but rather soph Will Gardner replacing Teddy Bridgewater (Vikings first-round pick) at QB. Unlike others, we are not conceding a significant drop-off at QB; consider that Petrino has rarely been caught short at the position, and Gardner allayed many of those fears in the spring game when completing 32 of 37 passes for 542 yards. Though spring games are notoriously deceiving and often low-key, 542 passing yards would be spectacular in any setting, be it a Strat-O-Matic game or on the sandlot. Observers were most impressed that Gardner had developed chemistry and timing with star WR DeVante Parker and the rest of the 'Ville's talented receiving corps by the end of spring drills.

Indeed, many believe Parker's decision to bypass the NFL Draft and return for his senior season had already mitigated some of the potential damage caused by Bridgewater's early exit. Parker's late-season surge in 2013 and dominant effort (9 catches for 142 yards) in the bowl romp past Miami provide a dimension for the offense that an offensive whiz such as Petrino can exploit.

Gardner will also be surrounded by every weapon an unproven QB needs--halfbacks, wide receivers, tight ends, and four returning linemen. Besides Parker (who also caught 12 TD passes last season), speedsters Eli Rogers (44 catches LY), Kai De La Cruz (18.1 yp reception in 2013), Robert Clark and Michaelee Harris are all established receiving threats. As well as sr. TE Christian Gardner, pegged as a breakout star this fall after shining in spring drills. Gardner's 28 catches last fall were also good for over 15 yards per catch, an extremely impressive average for a tight end.

If anything, Petrino might also believe in a power running game more so than predecessor Strong, and the RB pool is the deepest on the team. Dominique Brown led Card backs LY with 825 yards, but Auburn transfer Michael Dyer and early enrollee true frosh L.J. Scott were the best-looking runners in spring. As long as the 'Ville OL (with four returning starters) holds up, Petrino has his complement to the passing game.

Though only four starters return on the defensive side, it was the number-one rated stop unit in the country last season, allowing only 251 ypg. The new faces in the lineup, and the upgraded ACC schedule, figure to inflate those numbers, but Petrino's new D.C. Todd Grantham (imported from Mark Richt's Georgia staff) is not exactly going to be working with his hands tied behind his back.

If there is a potential trouble spot for the platoon, it could be in the secondary, especially at the safety spots after the departure of a pair of three-year starters, including the decorated Calvin Pryor (Jets first-round pick). A projected starter at SS, Jermaine Reve (who had moved from slot corner), damaged his knee in spring and appears iffy for the fall. Juco and ex-Washington Huskies transfer James Sample likely gets the next call at SS. Better injury news might come at the LB spots, where jr. Keith Brown missed all of 2013 plus spring work due to knee problems, but should be ready to go in the fall.

Grantham's challenge will be rebuilding the middle of the defense--both tackles, interior linebackers, and the aforementioned safeties. But if recent recruiting has been as upgraded as the past few seasons have suggested, Grantham has some building blocks to use.

Even moving into an upgraded league (ACC) and without the coach (Strong) who won 23 games over the past two seasons, underestimate the 'Ville at your own risk. Like him or not, Bobby Petrino has a proven record of winning and teams consistently putting 40 or more points on board. Remember, too, that Petrino's last three Arkansas teams posted a combined 17-7-1 record as chalk, much like his last three 'Ville teams earlier in the past decade posted a 24-11 mark as a favorite.

What we're really saying is to watch out for these guys.