Cnotes 2014-15 College Football Previews of Conferences

[CNOTES]

MAC college football betting preview: Coaching changes, QB swaps headline Mid-American

In the calendar years of 2011 and 2012, the MAC went a combined 7-4 SU and 6-5 ATS in bowl games. It has since lost seven straight bowls (0-7 ATS), including five last season.

Bowling Green is the clear favorite to win the conference this time around while also giving the MAC its best chance for a bowl win. But there are plenty of other postseason contenders.

Akron Zips (2013: 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +2,500
Season win total: 4.5

Why bet the Zips: The Zips won only six games combined in the four years prior to last season, when they suddenly improved enough for a five-win campaign. Quarterback Kyle Pohl and running back Jawon Chisholm are an experienced duo. The defensive will be inexperienced, but it’s hard to bet against veteran coordinator Chuck Amato.

Why not bet the Zips: Akron has stumbled through eight consecutive losing seasons. Both of last year’s starting cornerbacks are gone and only one starter on the defensive line returns. Three starting offensive linemen have departed, which could be problematic in front of a QB who has been error-prone in the past.

Season win total pick: Over 4.5.


Ball State Cardinals (2013: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1,500
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Cardinals: Ball State has improved its season win total in every one of the four years with head coach Pete Lembo at the helm. The running game will be featured more prominently in 2014 and that’s a good thing. Jahwan Edwards is the school’s all-time leader in touchdown runs and needs just 697 yards to set Ball State’s rushing record.

Why not bet the Cardinals: Four-year starting quarterback Keith Wenning is gone. So too are three of the Cardinals’ top four receivers. Willie Snead (106 catches, 1,516 yards, 15 TDs) left for the NFL after his junior campaign. Only one starter on the defensive line is returning.

Season win total pick: Under 8.5


Bowling Green Falcons (2013: 10-4 SU, 10-4 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +125
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Falcons: Dino Babers is in as head coach after being at the helm of the leading offense in the FCS last season (Eastern Illinois averaged 589.5 YPG and 48.2 PPG). Junior quarterback Matt Johnson (3,467 passing yards, 25 touchdowns in 2013) should be one of the beneficiaries. Bowling Green’s defense led the MAC in fewest points allowed last season.

Why not bet the Falcons: The drawback of a first conference championship in 21 years is losing a head coach. Dave Clawson departed for Wake Forest. Three of the four starters in the secondary must be replaced. The interior of the defensive line is also a slight question mark.

Season win total pick: Over 9.5


Buffalo Bulls (2013: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +2,500
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Bulls: Although they lost a few key offensive players, the Bulls return eight starters on that side of the ball, including QB Joe Licata. The offensive line, which brings back all five of its starters, could be the best in the conference. A soft early-season schedule could foster confidence.

Why not bet the Bulls: Buffalo must try to replace MAC Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack and the school’s all-time leading rusher, Branden Oliver. Even beyond Mack, the front seven is depleted. Under head coach Jeff Quinn, the Bulls are 4-27 SU and 8-22-1 ATS against opponents with winning percentages greater than .250.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5.


Central Michigan Chippewas (2013: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +3,000
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Chippewas: The Chippewas open with a weak schedule that includes real opportunities for major-conference wins (vs. Purdue and Kansas). Quarterback Cody Kater is back after missing most of 2013 with a broken collarbone. Wide receiver Titus Davis opted against the NFL. A total of 18 starters return.

Why not bet the Chippewas: Under head coach Dan Enos, the Chippewas are 2-14 SU and 4-12 ATS against winning MAC opponents. In 2013, four of their five conference wins came against teams that were either 0-8 or 1-7 in the MAC. A potential quarterback controversy could become a problem.

Season win total pick: Over 5.5.


Eastern Michigan Eagles (2013: 2-10 SU, 2-10 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +10,000
Season win total: 2.5

Why bet the Eagles: Chris Creighton boasts an overall record of 139-46 as a head coach, albeit with no experience at the FBS level. Running back Bronson Hill is back after recording the first 1,000-yard season for Eastern Michigan in a decade. The team’s four leading pass-catchers are all returning.

Why not bet the Eagles: A new coaching regime is in, which could be a good thing in the long run but will signal a transition period right now. The Eagles gave up an average of 510.8 yards and 45.2 points per game in 2013. They have recorded only one winning season since 1990 (6-5 in 1995).

Season win total pick: Under 2.5


Kent State Golden Flashes (2013: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1,500
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Golden Flashes: Quarterback Colin Reardon has a year of starting experience under his belt and he will still have 2013 leading pass-catcher Chris Humphrey and leading rusher Trayion Durham at his disposal. The Golden Flashes boast a solid duo at linebacker in Matt Dellinger and DeVante’ Strickland.

Why not bet the Golden Flashes: Kent State went 11-3 in 2012 under Darrell Hazell but compiled a 4-8 mark in Paul Haynes’ first year at the helm. The Golden Flashes are one of only two MAC teams, along with UMass, without an FCS opponent on the schedule. On defense, the line will need almost a complete overhaul.

Season win total pick: Under 5.5


Massachusetts Minutemen (2013: 1-11 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +10,000
Season win total: 1.5

Why bet the Minutemen: Mark Whipple is back on board as head coach, 11 years after his first stint with the Minutemen, during which he won 49 games in six seasons. He will have options at quarterback with sophomore A.J. Doyle and also Blake Frohnapfel, who transferred from Marshall. The Minutemen are leaving the MAC in 2015 so they will be inspired to go out with some sort of bang.

Why not bet the Minutemen: Massachusetts is coming off back-to-back 1-11 campaigns in which the one win came against a team that went winless in the MAC. The defensive line is in shambles and there’s no depth to speak of aside from maybe at quarterback.

Season win total pick: Under 1.5.


Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (2013: 0-12 SU, 3-9 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +7,500
Season win total: 1.5

Why bet the Redhawks: The good news is that it can’t get any worse. But will it get better? Former Notre Dame offensive coordinator Chuck Martin is in as head coach. Fifteen starters return, which is not necessarily a great thing but at least the Redhawks will have some experience.

Why not bet the Redhawks: Miami (Ohio) has posted three losing seasons in a row, including a bagel last year. Don Treadwell is out, so the Redhawks will have to adjust to a new coaching staff. The 2013 team was dead last in the nation in red-zone offense, second worst in third-down conversions, and third worst in sacks allowed.

Season win total pick: Under 1.5.


Northern Illinois Huskies (2013: 12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +250
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Huskies: Northern Illinois is loaded at running back with Cameron Stingily and Akeem Daniels. The Huskies also boast a talented receiver duo in Da’Ron Brown and Tommylee Lewis. They are 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games.

Why not bet the Huskies: Quarterback Jordan Lynch, who finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting, is gone. The defensive line and secondary also have to be rebuilt. A relatively young team will get a trial by fire with early road dates at Northwestern, UNLV, and Arkansas.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5.


Ohio Bobcats (2013: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +2,500
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Bobcats: The Bobcats have been consistent winners under former Nebraska head coach Frank Solich, with five consecutive bowl trips. They return seven starters on defense and will be extremely deep in their front seven.

Why not bet the Bobcats: Ohio will need an overhaul on offense following the departure of a star quarterback, two top rushers, five of the top six receivers, and three offensive linemen. Quarterback Tyler Tettleton and RB Beau Blankenship were the team’s undisputed leaders the past few years but are now gone.

Season win total pick: Under 5.5


Toledo Rockets (2013: 7-5 SU, 7-4-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +250
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Rockets: Sixteen starters - including six all-MAC performers - are returning. The Rockets should be dominant in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Kicker Jeremiah Detmer, a Lou Groza Award finalist last season, has converted 36 of 37 field goal attempts over the past two years.

Why not bet the Rockets: Experience will not necessarily mean success on the defensive side of the ball. Toledo allowed more than 420 yards per game last season. Former quarterback Terrance Owens is one of the few starters that have to be replaced.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5


Western Michigan Broncos (2013: 1-11 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +4,000
Season win total: 3.5

Why bet the Broncos: Head coach P.J. Fleck has a year under his belt and probably won’t be as overconfident as he was heading into the 2013 campaign. He brought in a stellar recruiting class more heralded than a handful of Big Ten teams. All-MAC senior cornerback Donald Celiscar headlines an experienced and likely outstanding secondary.

Why not bet the Broncos: Western Michigan won only one game last season and it came via a 31-30 decision after Massachusetts botched a two-point conversion attempt. Freshmen are expected to compete for just about every single starting position on the offensive side of the ball.

Season win total pick: Under 3.5

 

[Willye]

Nice info

 

[CNOTES]

Top Big Ten QB's

July 30, 2014

1. Braxton Miller - Ohio State
Miller was the class of the Big Ten last year, finishing with 2,094 pass yards (63.5%), 24 pass TD, and only 7 INT. He also rushed for 1,068 yards (6.2 YPC) and 12 TD. He would've been a top Heisman candidate if he hadn't missed the better part of two games early in the season with an injury. There is still quite a bit of unfinished business for the senior at OSU. Despite gaudy numbers and two undefeated regular seasons in a row, he has yet to lead the Buckeyes to a Big Ten title or a bowl win. Another year under Urban Meyer should prove beneficial for the dual-threat quarterback, as will having his top three receivers back from 2013. Ohio State will open the season as one of the favorites to advance to the new College Football Playoff, and Miller will be one of the top Heisman hopefuls. Expect a big season.
Stock: Hold

2. Christian Hackenberg - Penn State
Surprised he's No. 2 on this list? Don't be. Hackenberg put together one of the best freshman performances in the nation last season, throwing for 2,955 yards (58.9%) and 20 TD's in the Nittany Lions' 12 games. His 246.3 passing YPG ranks him second in terms of returning quarterbacks in the Big Ten. He closed out the season on a high-note, with 339 yards (70%) with 4 TD and 0 INT in a win at Wisconsin - a notable victory considering very few road teams come away with a victory in Madison. PSU is going through a coaching change from Bill O'Brien to James Franklin. Franklin has worked wonders with overachieving quarterbacks in his years at Vanderbilt, and we expect that to translate well in State College. We expect that Hackenberg will only get better with a year's worth of experience and to improve on his stellar 2013 numbers.
Stock: Buy

3. Connor Cook - Michigan State
Arguably no quarterback in the nation silenced his critics more than Cook in 2013. Cook split time with Andrew Maxwell through the first four weeks of the season and stated publicly that he was upset that he didn't get snaps in crunch time during the 17-13 loss to Notre Dame. He got his wish and took sole possession of the starting gig from Week 5 on and he never looked back. Cook finished with 22 TD and only 6 INT, leading Michigan State to a Big Ten championship and Rose Bowl win, earning MVP honors in both games. The Spartans' receiving corps has a few question marks heading into the season and it never has been a team strength, but Cook made due last season and we don't expect any fall-off from last season's remarkable production.
Stock: Buy

4. C.J. Brown - Maryland
Brown is back for yet another season at Maryland as a sixth-year senior after receiving a medical waiver last spring in the wake on an injury that cause him to miss 2012. Brown started hot, throwing for 210+ yards in each of the first four games with 7 TD and just 1 INT. An early injury against Florida State in the fifth game caused him to miss two full games and better parts of two others and he was never the same player after that, finishing with just 6 TD and 6 INT over the final seven games. In his defense, he lost his two top receivers, Stefon Diggs and Deon Long, to injury in the same game on October 19th. Brown will need to improve his accuracy a bit, but with Diggs and Long returning, giving the Terps their top five pass-catchers back from 2013, this passing attack could be one of the top units in the Big Ten.
Stock: Buy

5. Nate Sudfeld - Indiana
With Tre Roberson transferring to Illinois State this summer, Nate Sudfeld will be the main main at Indiana. Sudfeld is more of a pocket-passer, amassing 21 TD and just 9 INT last year while averaging 210 pass yards per game in 2013. These two split time under center in 2013 with great results, Sudfeld airing it out and Roberson leading the way with his feet. The Hoosiers offense ranked 10th in total yards, 17th in pass yards, and 16th in scoring. Now if only that defense would show up once in a while.
Stock: Hold

6. Trevor Siemian - Northwestern
While battling injuries and sharing time with Kain Colter last season, Siemian got uneven results. He finished with 2,143 yards (59.7%) with 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions. This season, he's the only quarterback remaining on the Northwestern roster to have actually completed a pass. He doesn’t have much of a dual-threat ability as he rushed for just 33 yards last season and that could present a problem for the Wildcats as they would bring in Kain Colter to add that dimension to the offense in season’s past. But with three of his top four receiving threats from 2013 returning, we expect Northwestern becomes more of a passing team in 2014. Off the field, he has voiced his opposition to the players’ union at Northwestern, which is interesting as he is a leader in the locker room and that could become an issue with other players that support it. But for now, we expect a strong season from Siemian.
Stock: Buy

7: Devin Gardner - Michigan
Gardner didn’t get a lot of help from his running backs or offensive line last year, leading to some uneven performances. Still, he is capable of putting up huge numbers as evidenced in games against Notre Dame (294 yards, 4 TD), Indiana (503 yards, 2 TD), and Ohio State (451, 4 TD). Now his two best linemen from 2013 are gone and the unit remains a bit of a question mark. During spring, he was still recovering from a broken foot suffered against OSU that caused him to miss the bowl game and that allowed backup Shane Morris to garner more attention as a possible replacement. Despite losing five of the last six games in 2013, Gardner has the most experience on the roster and has the dual-threat ability that should keep him #1 on the depth chart. But if things start to go south in Ann Arbor, don’t be surprised if coach Hoke starts giving Morris more looks.
Stock: Hold

8. Joel Stave - Wisconsin
With RB Gordon and four of five returning offensive linemen back from 2013, whoever wins the starting QB spot in Madison is in a good position to succeed. The leader on the depth chart right now is Joel Stave. Stave had a decent 2013 campaign and would figure to be higher on this list, but we're not convinced that he will absolutely be the starter for the Badgers this fall. Speaking to team insiders, coach Anderson favors backup QB Tanner McEvoy's dual-threat ability over Stave's pocket-passing style. We're also concerned that whoever takes the QB job in Madison won't have a ton of options in the receiving corps now that WR Jared Abbrederis has departed. Stave might not be on this list by season's end.
Stock: Sell

9. Jake Rudock - Iowa
Rudock returns for his redshirt sophomore season after a solid 2013 campaign in which he threw for 2,383 yards (59%) with 18 TD and 13 INT. He is not likely to make any "wow" plays but is the prototypical Iowa quarterback. The numbers will never wow you with Rudock, but he can develop into a quality game-manager. He'll need to get better in the "big" games as he completed less than 54% with just 6 TD and 7 INT in Iowa's five losses last season. If Iowa wants to make the jump into the top-tier of the Big Ten, it starts with a better season from Jake Rudock.
Stock: Hold

10. Wes Lunt - Illinois
Lunt is still a bit of an unknown. He transferred from Oklahoma State after the 2012 season and had to sit out last fall due to NCAA transfer rules. Lunt threw for 1,108 yards (61.8%) with 6 TD and 7 INT in limited duty as a freshman at OK State and now looks to take over an offense in complete overhaul. He's not guaranteed the starting spot but he has just as much, if not more, experience than his two competitors, Aaron Bailey and Reilly O'Toole (combined 21 pass attempts last season) despite sitting out an entire season. He has favorable size (6'5" 210 lbs) and a live arm and could turn a few heads. We'll have to see a bit more of him before he rises on this list, but for now we like his potential.
Stock: Buy

 

[CNOTES]

Week 1 Clashes

July 30, 2014

The start of the college football season is less than a month away and the opening weekend features a number of big games between the five major conferences. Here is a look at some of the big major conference matchups to start the season, some of which could have major consequences for the season.

With the new playoff system in place, there may be less pressure on the top teams to deliver a perfect season, but the inter-conference clashes may be more critical as the selection committee will need to evaluate the conference strengths side-by-side and at least one of the big five conferences will be left out. Here is a look at the opening weekend games between major conference foes that could directly or indirectly have an impact for the committee in December.

Rutgers vs. Washington State (Seattle): Absolutely no one is projecting either of these teams to be in the national title picture or even the Top 25, but this will be the first of five Big Ten vs. Pac-12 matchups of the season. While the Michigan State/Oregon game in Week 2 will be the game with serious implications, if one conference delivers a decisive 4-1 or 5-0 edge in the conference matchups, it could help to sway the committee if a one-loss Pac-12 champion is pitted up a against a one-loss Big Ten champion for the last playoff spot, actually a very realistic scenario. This Thursday night game is in Seattle, which has been far from a home-away-from-home for Washington State, as they have been blown out the past three seasons in the Emerald City games. Both of these teams went 6-7 last season after bowl defeats and both teams have coaches in their third seasons.

The similarities end there as Rutgers has been known for a stout rush defense, but an erratic offense while Washington State rarely runs the ball and plays track-meet style games. Rutgers is considered additional dead weight by many Big Ten supporters, but a significant non-conference win away from home would certainly provide a boost to the overall strength of the conference now with Rutgers and Maryland joining this season. It would be a big blow to the Pac-12 and this could be the swing game in the Big Ten/Pac-12 series with likely fairly substantial favoritism projecting a split in the remaining four games between the conferences.

UCLA at Virginia: The bigger non-conference game for UCLA will be with Texas in Arlington in two weeks, but many see the Bruins as a serious threat in the Pac-12, not just to return to the Pac-12 title game for the third time in four seasons, but to even play into the national conversation. UCLA has a very challenging schedule, but this is a loaded team with nearly the complete starting roster back from last season’s 10-3 team. UCLA crushed Virginia Tech from the ACC in the Sun Bowl last season with a 42-12 win and Virginia is not expected to be a great threat in 2014 coming off an ugly 2013 season in which the Cavaliers went 2-10. This is a veteran Virginia team with a lot of experience and the cross-country travel and early start time on the east coast could provide some advantages for the host. Virginia lost 59-10 at home last season against Oregon in a matchup vs. one of the Pac-12’s elite teams.

In fairness, UCLA fared no better against the Ducks with a 42-12 loss in Eugene last season and the statistics for Virginia and UCLA were nearly identical in that difficult matchup. With Florida State carrying the hopes of the ACC and sitting with a great shot to go undefeated again, this is not an overly meaningful game for the conference. A UCLA loss would be a big blow to the Pac-12, but as the opening spread will suggest, that would be a substantial upset.

California at Northwestern: These teams opened up the 2013 season in Berekley with Northwestern winning 44-30. It was a much closer game than the two touchdown margin suggests as the game was tied in the fourth quarter before Northwestern pulled away. California actually had more yards in the game and this will be a big game for both teams. Northwestern is coming off a disappointing season filled with close losses, so starting the season with positive momentum will be critical. California won just one game last season, but this was a competitive team that averaged over 450 yards per game on offense.

This is really a game that Big Ten cannot afford to lose at it would be very damaging for comparison arguments by season’s end, as Northwestern figures to be one of the better teams in the Big Ten West, and actually a legitimate contender. California with a brutal schedule is not expected to compete well after going 0-9 in the Pac-12 last season. Even if California is greatly improved, it is a program that won’t likely get consistent enough results to find the postseason considering how tough the Pac-12 North looks and with a non-conference game with BYU still ahead as well.

Alabama vs. West Virginia (Atlanta): It is not likely to be a great opening weekend for the Big XII, projected by some to be the conference most likely to be left out of the national playoff if they fail to produce an undefeated team as they won’t benefit from a conference championship game. The Big XII plays a nine-game conference schedule which has taken a toll in recent years as every recent championship contender has suffered a late season loss. West Virginia has an impossible opening task, but a respectable showing in a loss could go a long way to help the perception of the Big XII. Alabama has delivered dominant early season wins over Big Ten and ACC teams in recent seasons and that helped to push one-loss SEC teams to the top of the pile in the BCS pecking order in previous seasons.

Alabama is a national title contender, but this is a team with few returning starters and big shoes to fill with many 2014 NFL draft picks departing the roster. After a stunning 4-8 season in 2013, West Virginia has some pressure to rebound this season in the fourth season for Dana Holgorsen. The 70-33 Orange Bowl win after the 2011 season only carries so much weight two disappointing seasons later in what has been a difficult adjustment to the Big XII. It would be a stunning upset if West Virginia won, but Alabama has been upset in its last two games, losing as double-digit favorites to both Auburn and Oklahoma to close last season.

Clemson at Georgia: Now for the games with serious implications in the opening weekend. Last season, Clemson’s win over Georgia helped the Tigers secure an Orange Bowl spot despite getting blasted by Florida State and South Carolina later in the season. It was a great opening weekend game with Clemson winning 38-35, holding on despite allowing 545 yards to the Bulldogs. While everyone expects Florida State to win the ACC title again, Clemson could make a case for one of the six major bowl spots even in a runner-up position in the ACC Atlantic, as they did last season. Should Clemson take out Georgia, it would also boost the standing of the ACC if the champion of the conference wound up with a loss and was not a sure-thing for one of the four national playoff spots.

The implications of the opener are huge for Georgia, but less so for the SEC. The conference has done enough to be sure that they will have one of the four national playoff spots in any scenario and probably can make a case for two spots in several other scenarios. In the six major bowls, there are no longer limits on teams from each conference, so Georgia could have a favorable path to a major bowl for the first time since the 2007 Sugar Bowl if they win this game, even if they are not able to capture the SEC East title. Both teams have a lot of talent back on defense, but have unproven quarterbacks and this could be another exciting opening game with big stakes.

Florida State vs. Oklahoma State (Arlington): The Big XII will get the first chance to end the undefeated run for Florida State, but this year’s Cowboys squad looks much less equipped to deliver a big win than several of the teams the past few seasons in Stillwater. This opener in Arlington will provide a more favorable venue for Oklahoma State, but while Florida State is loaded with experience, the Cowboys are in a bit of a rebuilding year with only eight starters back in action. Oklahoma State passed a big test to open last season with a 21-3 win over Mississippi State, but this will be a much tougher task. If Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston gets suspended that could open up the opportunity for Oklahoma State, but ultimately this is likely going to be too touch of a test for the Big XII to earn many ‘points’ in comparison arguments against the ACC.

A Florida State loss would be a national game-changer and while a respectable showing from Oklahoma State will help the Big XII, it does not appear to be a year where the Cowboys will be carrying the flag for the conference. Florida State will face a schedule with more weight this season so the Seminoles could actually lose this game and still wind up in the national playoff if they win out and take the ACC title as it would be hard to leave out the defending national champion as a one-loss conference champion even if it becomes a down year for the ACC.

Wisconsin vs. LSU (Houston): Neither LSU or Wisconsin looks like a serious national title contender, but both are among the fringe contenders where it would not be shocking for either team to make the national playoff. This will likely serve as an elimination game in that regard as while the loser could still get there if they run the table the rest of the way with a conference championship, they might not have enough to get to a major bowl with two losses. The winner, meanwhile, will likely immediately emerge as a Top 10 team with a real shot to stay in the national mix all season. LSU is very young this season, but talent-rich as usual, coming off a 10-3 season. The 2013 Tigers were the worst defensive team that Les Miles has produced in many seasons and the key matchup in this game will be the LSU defense against the Wisconsin rushing attack. Neither team appears poised to make big plays in the air in this opener with depleted receiving corps on both sides and unclear quarterback situations, but both defenses could have some vulnerability.

Wisconsin failed in the Capital One Bowl last season against South Carolina of the SEC for a fourth consecutive bowl loss and this is a program in dire need of a marquee win outside of the conference. After impressive defensive numbers last season, Wisconsin will have to replace a great deal of key players and it may be the LSU running game that has a big day despite the focus on Heisman candidate Melvin Gordon for Wisconsin. This game would go a huge way for the Big Ten especially after many notable Big Ten vs. SEC defeats in recent seasons and while it would be a damaging loss for LSU, the SEC has plenty of teams in line to emerge in contention for the playoff picture.

 

[CNOTES]

Big Ten Report - Preseason

August 1, 2014


We're less than 30 days away from Week 1 of the college football season and it's never too early to take a look at our favorite conference: the Big Ten.

Let's take a look at areas of concern and potential storylines heading into the fall for all 14 schools.

Illinois: Improve its rush defense

Opponents pounded Illinois’ defense for 254.3 rushing yards per game last season, ranking last in the Big Ten and 120th out of 125 teams. It didn't exactly translate to success for the Illini, as they allowed 35.4 points per game and went 4-8 overall. The offense was pretty respectable, ranking 46th in yards per game and 61st in points per game. If they can fix its defensive leaks, Illinois may turn a few heads in the Big Ten this season.

Indiana: Find a defensive identity

Indiana ranked 116th in points allowed last season at a whopping 38.8 per game with seven opponents exceeding 40 points. The Hoosiers allowed 7.4 yards per play and over 520 yards per game. They need a defense to pair with that strong offense - 10th in yards per game and 16th in points per game - as they proved they could be competitive with a solid defense, finishing 4-0-1 ATS in the five games that it allowed fewer than 40 points.

Iowa: Breaking into the elite

The Hawkeyes lost just four games during the regular season to teams with a combined record of 44-6 (Northern Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin). They were just 1-3 ATS in those four games while going 7-1 ATS against the lesser competetion. They then lost their bowl game to LSU by seven points (10-3). If Iowa hopes to break into the top half of the Big Ten, it has to start beating the elite teams.

Michigan: Figuring out an offensive identity

Replacing the talent that Michigan's offense lost won't be easy. The Wolverines lost their top receiver (Jeremy Gallon), and two top offensive linemen (Taylor Lewan and Michael Schofield). Coach Brady Hoke also insists that Devin Gardner, the incumbent starter ataQuarterback, is in a competetion with sophomore Shane Morris. Whether he likes it or not, Hoke is entering a make-or-break year with the team and this offense can't continue to be just average (87th in yards and 46th in points in 2013) if he wants to remain at the helm.

Michigan State: Dealing with a target on its backs

Michigan State capped off a stellar season with a Big Ten championship and a Rose Bowl win. The Spartans always had a stout defense but it was the offense that really emerged as the season went on. After scoring just 13 points in the season's only loss to Notre Dame in September, Sparty averaged 29.6 points per game over the final 10 games and finished 8-2 ATS over that span. They lost a lot of star power on a defense that finished 2nd in yards allowed and 3rd in points allowed. They'll have to deal with every opponents' best effort week in and week out as everyone wants a shot at the defending Big Ten champs.

Minnesota: Building off of a strong season

Minnesota was sitting at 8-2 and ranked 25th in late November. They then lost to Wisconsin by 13, Michigan State by 11, and Syracuse by 4. Still they finished 8-5 & 9-4 ATS (all five of their losses were to bowl teams). QB Philip Nelson was dismissed, giving sophomore Mitch Leidner (3 TD, 1 INT, 407 rush yards in 2013) full reigns of the position. They'll need to develop a stronger receiving corps for Leidner considering the leading receiver had just 25 receptions last season.

Nebraska: Replacing offensive stars

The Huskers played much of last season without incumbent starter Taylor Martinez at quarterback. Martinez played just four games before being injured and Tommy Armstrong Jr and Ron Kellogg III filling in for him. Armstrong is number one on the depth chart right now but is far from cemented as the starter. Whoever is running the offense will have to deal without their leading RB (Abdullah: 1,690 yards and 9 TD) and WR (Enunwa: 51 rec, 753 yards, 12 TD) from 2013. Head coach Bo Pelini is on thin ice and should the Huskers start to falter early on, everything could unravel.

Northwestern: Bouncing back from a disastrous 2013

The Wildcats were 4-0 and ranked 15th while ESPN's Gameday was on campus for the showdown with 3rd ranked Ohio State. Northwestern lost that game and the subsequent six to finish with a losing record. The Wildcats repeatedly failed to live up to expectations week in and week out, finishing just 3-8 against the spread. Top offensive weapon Kain Colter is gone, but QB Trevor Siemian returns along with a healthy Venric Mark at RB for a team looking to rebound.

Ohio State: Starting a new streak

After winning 24 straight regular season games, the Buckeyes dropped the Big Ten title game to Michigan State and the subsequent bowl game against Clemson. Late in season, it appeared that the weight of the streak was weighing heavy on the team. They started the season with a plus-31.2 points per game scoring differential (6-2-1 ATS) but finished with just a plus-9.8 differential over the last five (0-5 ATS). They lost a lot of talent on defense but have recruited well enough to fill holes - plus having Heisman Trophy candidate QB Braxton Miller makes things much easier on offense.

Penn State: James Franklin picking up where Bill O'Brien left off

Expectations are high for Franklin, who inherits a team that finished 15-9 SU and 14-10 ATS in two seasons under Bill O'Brien. The Lions still have two years remaining on their postseason ban, but the fiery Franklin won't let that be an excuse to underachieve. He has some strong pieces to work with, most notably QB Christian Hackenberg, who had some learning curves as a true freshman but finished with 20 TD and 10 INT.

Purdue: Find a playmaker, any playmaker

The Boilers were one of the worst teams in the nation last season. They finished 1-11 SU & 3-8-1 ATS. They averaged just 282 yards per game and 13 points per game (both ranked 121st). Defensively they weren't any better ranking 105th in yards allowed and 113th in points allowed. QB Danny Etling showed flashes during his freshman campaign with 10 TD and 7 INT. Their leading rusher had just 464 yards and 1 TD. They need to show improvement under Darrell Hazell or he will likely be out by year's end.

Wisconsin: Develop a passing attack

The Badgers will always be a run-oriented offense. Melvin Gordon and James White gained over 3,000 combined rushing yards last season with 25 combined touchdowns. However, if the Badgers want to make their way into the "elite," they'll have to get better at QB. Incumbent QB Joel Stave completed 62% with 22 TD and 13 INT; decent numbers, but he really put no scare into opposing defenses. There's a three-way competition going on and whoever wins will have to deal with a very raw receiving corps sans Jared Abbrederis (78 rec, 1,081 yards in 2013), plus RB White has left for the NFL.

Maryland & Rutgers: Assimilating to the new conference

Maryland dropped six of its final nine games after a 4-0 start last season. Injuries derailed them but there's reason for optimism. Notably QB CJ Brown and WR's Stefon Diggs and Deon Long returning to full-form. The Terps have a brutal schedule to deal with this year; starting Oct. 4 the Terps have consecutive games against Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan State, and Michigan.

Rutgers finished 6-7 last year despite playing a very tame schedule. They lost big to Central Florida, Cincinnati, and Houston while also dropping games against Connecticut, Notre Dame, Louisville, and Fresno State. Their 2014 Big Ten schedule is a bit more forgiving than Maryland, but it'll still be a major step up from what they faced last season in the AAC.

 

[CNOTES]

Games to Watch - Big Ten

August 1, 2014


Top QBs to Watch · Preseason Report

Week 1 - Saturday, Aug. 30

Northwestern (-12.5) vs. California
These two met in week one of 2013. Northwestern won by 14 as a -5.5 point favorite at Cal in a game full of fireworks. Both combined for 1,057 total yards and 74 points. The Wildcats used two interception returns for TD in the 2nd half to pull away from the Bears. Northwestern is just 10-21 ATS in its last 31 games as a favorite of 9.5 points or more.

Ohio State (-17.5) vs. Navy from Baltimore, Maryland
OSU is 2-0 the last two meetings with Navy (the last meeting was in '09). The Bucks were a double-digit favorite in both meetings but failed to cover in both, winning by just four & three points, respectively. Ohio State is 0-3 SU & ATS in its last three neutral site games. Navy is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 games as an underdog of two touchdowns or more.

Penn State (+1) vs. Central Florida from Dublin, Ireland
Penn State was a 4.5 point favorite when these two met in week one last year. UCF built a 28-10 lead in the 2nd half and a PSU rally fell short as the Knights pulled off the upset, 34-31. UCF lost its top passer & rusher on offense (both drafted by the Jaguars), but returns nine starters on a defense that ranked 29th nationally last year.

Wisconsin (+5) vs. LSU from Houston, Texas
The Badgers have won 16 straight season openers and has won 31 of the last 33 regular season non-conference games. They are also 31-10-1 ATS in its last 42 games as an underdog of seven points or more. Of their 14 losses since the beginning of 2011, UW only one of those has been by more than seven points. LSU has opened four of the last five seasons at a neutral site and they are 3-0 ATS, winning by an average of 10 PPG against three ranked teams.

Week 2 - Saturday, Sept. 6

Michigan State (+13) at Oregon
The Spartans lost by 34 points in their last trip to Eugene back in 1998. MSU is just 1-4 SU in its last five non-conference 'true' regular season road games. MSU hasn't been a double digit underdog since 2009 and is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 occasions. Oregon hasn't fared all that well at home as a heavy favorite, going 6-12-1 ATS in the last 19 games as a home favorite of 10 points or more

Michigan (+3) at Notre Dame
Michigan is 6-2 SU & ATS in the last eight meetings with the Golden Domers, but both of the losses were in South Bend. The Wolverines are just 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS the last two years against ranked opponents - the one SU win was at home against Notre Dame last year.

Ohio State (-18) vs. Virginia Tech
This is the first meeting ever between the two schools. Ohio State is 49-9 vs. the last 58 non-conference opponents, but just 5-4 the last nine against non-conference BCS teams during the regular season. The Hokies have been a 14+ point underdog just once since 2004 and is 17-9 ATS all-time in that situation. Ohio State is just 5-10 ATS in the last 15 games as a 14+ point favorite.

Week 3 - Saturday, Sept. 13

Nebraska (-4) at Fresno State
The Huskers hosted Fresno State in 2011, winning by just 13 points as a 28-point favorite. This will be Fresno's home opener after opening the season at USC and at Utah. The Bulldogs lost QB Carr (50 TD LY) and WR's Adams and Burse (combined 231 receptions, 2,744 rec yards, and 30 TD LY) from its explosive offense. Nebraska is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road openers and this game is the week before the Huskers host the Miami Hurricanes - so it could be a letdown situation.

Iowa (-9.5) vs. Iowa State
The last three games in this rivalry have been decided by six points or fewer. Last year Iowa led 27-7 with seven minutes remaining. ISU went on two long scoring drives to pull within six with 2:26 to play before an onside recovery by Iowa ended the comeback. Iowa State has dropped seven of the last 11 vs. the Hawkeyes, but is an impressive 12-4 ATS over the last 16 matchups.

Purdue (+21) vs. Notre Dame from Indianapolis, Indiana
This will be just the 2nd neutral site game between these two in 86 meetings. The Boilers have dropped six straight and are just 3-11 SU in the last 14 meetings with Notre Dame. Purdue has been an underdog of 21 points or more seven times since the start of 2010 and is 0-7 SU & 2-5 ATS in those games. Notre Dame is just 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 as a 21+ point favorite.

Week 4 - Saturday, Sept. 20

Nebraska (-3) vs. Miami
The series is tied 5-5 with the last meeting coming in 2001. The Huskers are 49-4 hosting their last 53 non-conference opponents. Miami is just 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference road games as an underdog.

 

[CNOTES]

Press Pittsburgh

August 1, 2014

Under 10 ½ Ohio State · Under 4 ½ West Virginia

My handicapping approach to college football “Win Total” predictions has often had me leaning to UNDER tickets because so many things can happen to a team over a three-month span. However, I believe I’ve found a great OVER selections and this is a very strong play for me.

Pittsburgh OVER 7 ½ (+115)

As of last July, this price can be found at 5Dimes.eu and if you look at when the prices were released in mid-June at the major offshore sportsbook, you can see that they opened the price at OVER 7 ½ (+155), which means I’m not the only individual buying the Panthers this fall.

Paul Chryst is building momentum in Western Pennsylvania and he’s already known as an excellent coach and recruiter. A lot of pundits aren’t buying Pittsburgh and the writers recently picked the school to finish in sixth place of the Coastal Division.

This is ridiculous!

It’s fair to say that the majority of college football teams revolve around their quarterback. If you have a talented player behind center, you’re ahead of the game. I am quite confident that Chad Voytik is going to excel at quarterback for Pittsburgh this season.

Talent wise, he’s undersized at six-foot-one but it’s fair to say that he has a 3rd or 4th round NFL draft pick arm. He is also very bright and is being mentored Chryst, who is an amazing quarterback coach. Before joining Pittsburgh, he was with Wisconsin and had played a big part in developing now Super Bowl champion Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks. It’s not fair to compare Voytik to Wilson but they will both receive the same tutelage.

Another addition for Voytik is Pittsburgh’s mammoth and undervalued offensive line. This group gives them a chance to beat any team on their schedule. Pitt's offensive linemen average 6'5" and 315 pounds. I expect running back James Connor to put up huge rushing numbers while Voytik hits his downfield targets, primarily wide receiver Tyler Boyd.

Defensively, Pitt is will also be better than expected despite losing All-American tackle Aaron Donald on the defensive line. The Panthers will not allow easy scores, their secondary will be tough. Pitts and Howard, the CBs, are seasoned and talented. Pitts also adds value to the Panthers' special teams unit with his kick returning skills. Pitt also looks to be strong at both kicking positions, despite both players being young.

If you’re looking for a deep longshot to surprise the college football world, I believe Pittsburgh is a great look. Talent usually prevails but an easy schedule, overrated conferences foes, and a potential gem at QB should have the folks in Pittsburgh believing.

For this piece, OVER 7 ½ (+115) is too good to pass up.

Still not buying the Panthers? Let’s break down their regular season schedule.

Game 1 vs. Delaware: The Blue Hens have a good FCS program and occasionally crank out an NFL draft picks (Rich Gannon, Joe Flacco). Pittsburgh will be favored by more than three scores in this spot and I think the Panthers will explode on opening day a beat Delaware in grand fashion. Pitt easily goes to 1-0.

Game 2 at Boston College: Pitt will cruise to another easy win. BC has only eight returning starters and an unimpressive crop of newcomers. BC loses a 2,000 yard rusher as well. Look for Pitt to overpower BC from start to finish. This is a nationally televised game and Pitt will make a statement. Pitt goes to 2-0.

Game 3 at Florida International: FIU stepped up in class when it joined CUSA. FIU is stepping up even higher by scheduling Pitt. FIU was 1-11 last year and their coach, Ron Turner, has been a loser at every stop on his coaching tour. Paul Chryst will outcoach him and Pitt will clobber FIU. Here is a spot where Pitt's offensive line and James Conner will run wild. Pitt goes to 3-0 and I’d back them to cover any number as a road favorite too.

Game 4 vs. Iowa: Many publications are expecting Iowa to be a force in the Big Ten. I disagree. They have an awful back seven on defense and Pitt will score a bundle against them. Pitt will open huge holes for Conner while setting up Boyd for homeruns. Pitt's defense will keep the Hawkeyes in check. Pitt goes to 4-0.

Game 5 vs. Akron: Akron has improved under Terry Bowden, going 5-7 last year. The Zips are too small on defense to stay in this game for 60 minutes. Chryst will give Bowden a steady diet of Conner up the middle. The Zips' defenders are 50-70 pounds lighter per man than the Panthers' offensive players. Pitt will grind Akron like sausage. Pitt goes to 5-0.

Game 6 at Virginia: This could be Pitt's first loss. UVA was only 2-10 last year but they return 17 starters and plenty of talent. Pitt is better but the Cavaliers are certainly going to take this one seriously. UVA will enter this contest at 2-3. A win would get them to .500 halfway through the season and bring a minor bowl into play. Pitt goes to either 6-0 or 5-1.

Game 7 vs. Virginia Tech: After a bye week following the UVA contest, Pitt hosts Virginia Tech in a Thursday night matchup. Honestly, this game is a toss-up. VT lacks talent on offense but they have two shut-down NFL CBs. Frank Beamer and Chryst are both great coaches. Pitt may overpower Virginia Tech with their line and Conner but it won’t be easy against a VT squad coached by defensive coordinator Bud Foster, who is a genius. Pitt goes to 7-0 or 5-2.

Game 8 vs. Georgia Tech: Pitt will be motivated by revenge in this game as they lost 21-10 in Atlanta last year. Pitt will also benefit from rest due to playing on Thursday the previous week. GT will not have that luxury as they will be coming off a trip to UNC. Look for Pitt to win by daylight. Plus a late October day in Pittsburgh may feel very cold to the young men from Atlanta, making their day even longer. Pitt goes to 8-0 or 6-2.

Game 9 vs. Duke: Last year’s game was a shootout in Durham as Pitt won 58-55. This year's contest should be more ground oriented. Duke will be playing on the road and it could be in cold weather too. If that’s the case, this will slow them down as will the Panthers' defensive backfield. Pitt will run wild all day. Pitt goes to 9-0 or 7-2.

Game 10 at North Carolina: As of late July, UNC was listed as a 110/1 betting choice to win this year’s College Football Playoff. Pitt is 500/1. If Pitt shows up, and I expect them to, the Panthers could suddenly become last year's Auburn. UNC has one of the five best WR corps in the nation. Pitt's secondary can contain them as UNC does not have proven signal caller. Tar Heels QB Marquise Williams may scramble here and there but Voytik will be surgical and Pitt will pound away with Conner. Pitt wins and goes to 10-0 or 8-2. If the Panthers can avoid a loss to the squads from Virginia, they could be jockeying for a spot in the four-team playoff in mid-November, especially if they are 10-0.

Game 11 vs. Syracuse: Pitt gets a big edge at home against Syracuse. The Orangemen will play on a sloppy field in freezing weather instead of their cozy dome. SU does bring back 15 starters but Pitt will beat them. Pitt defeated Syracuse 17-16 last season at the Carrier Dome. I expect another close game but Pitt will beat Syracuse again. Pitt goes to either 11-0 or 9-2.

Game 12 at Miami, Florida: Things can certainly change over three months but as of writing this piece, Miami has no quarterback and no kicking game. Their entire season revolves around running back Duke Johnson, who is the best player in the ACC. While he’s great, he’s still not enough to beat Pitt. The Panthers have not won in Miami in slightly over 50 years, so the due factor is definitely overdue. It can still get muggy in South Florida in November so look for Pitt to potentially struggle with the heat. If Pittsburgh doesn’t have an inordinate amount of injuries at key positions, it will beat Miami. The Panthers go to 12-0 or 10-2.

 

[CNOTES]

SEC college football betting preview: Alabama still the team to beat, not to bet

Could Alabama’s death grip on the SEC be slipping? The Crimson Tide are still the favorites to top the country’s toughest conference in 2014 but teams like LSU, South Carolina, Auburn, Georgia and Ole Miss all have it out for Alabama.

Alabama Crimson Tide (2013: 11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +120
Season win total: 10.5

Why bet the Crimson Tide: Alabama will be a motivated team after failing to get to the National Championship Game last season. The Crimson Tide has the most talented team in the country and they’ll be ready to play from the get-go after losing the Sugar Bowl to finish a disappointing 2013 season.

Why not bet the Crimson Tide: They only return 12 starters and they must replace quarterback A.J. McCarron who was a three-year starter. Alabama also hired loose cannon Lane Kiffin as offensive coordinator, so it may get interesting if the offense struggles early on. Alabama comes with a big reputation, so its pointspreads are always inflated a couple of points.

Season win total pick: Over 10.5


LSU Tigers (2013: 10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +300
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Tigers: LSU has a strong team every year and 2014 will be no different. The Tigers have an easy path early on this season and they could very well be undefeated when they host Alabama in November. Their offensive line is one of the best in the country and they’ll pave the way for one of the top rushing attacks in the nation.

Why not bet the Tigers: Despite the abundance of talent still on hand, LSU lost six players early to the NFL draft. The Tigers also have to replace a QB, running back, and two wide receivers that put up the best combined numbers in SEC history last season.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5


South Carolina Gamecocks (2013: 11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +300
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Gamecocks: South Carolina has gone 11-2 in each of the last three years, so it’s been an ultra-consistent team. The Gamecocks return 14 starters and a quarterback (Dylan Thompson) that has plenty of playing experience.

Why not bet the Gamecocks: The defense has to prove itself this season after losing Jadeveon Clowney and Kelcy Quarles. South Carolina’s secondary is a major concern and they will likely lean on true freshmen to man the back seven. The Gamecocks early schedule is tough and the results will likely dictate South Carolina’s direction in 2014.

Season win total pick: Over 9.5


Auburn Tigers (2013: 12-2 SU, 12-2 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +500
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Tigers: Head coach Gus Malzahn is one of the best and most innovative coaches in all of college football. His ability to game plan and keep opposing defenses confused is masterful. The Tigers offense returns eight starters from last season, when they averaged 39.5 points per game and played for the national championship.

Why not bet the Tigers: Auburn’s run in 2013 was a big surprise and it will be hard pressed to catch any team off guard this season. The Tigers won six games by eight points or less last season and will be tough to win all the close games this year. Auburn’s road schedule is brutal and it’s likely to regress in 2014.

Season win total pick: Under 9.5


Georgia Bulldogs (2013: 8-5 SU, 3-9-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +800
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Bulldogs: Georgia was besieged with injuries in 2013 and it simply did not have a fair season. The Bulldogs’ defense will be tremendous and they will be an overall improved team in 2014. Despite losing quarterback Aaron Murray, Georgia will be led by sophomore Hutson Matson, who gained valuable experience when playing as a true freshman last year.

Why not bet the Bulldogs: The team has a lot of promise, but keep in mind their best players are all coming back from injuries. It’s no given that they will all be healthy and if the injuries reoccur, a repeat of 2013 could be in store. Georgia is a popular sleeper team in the SEC this season, so it will be playing with the pressure of high expectations.

Season win total pick: Over 9.5


Mississippi Rebels (2013: 8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1,400
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Rebels: Mississippi will be a very good team this season. It returns a loaded team that includes 15 starters. Head coach Hugh Freeze is in his third season in Oxford and his teams improve as the years go on. The Rebels have exceptional talent on both sides of the ball and they are a true dark-horse contender in the SEC in 2014.

Why not bet the Rebels: The biggest concern coming into 2014 for Mississippi is their offensive line. The Rebels lost three starters from that unit and it will be of utmost importance for them to find capable replacements. Their games in October are challenging and that month could prove detrimental to the Rebels' success.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5


Florida Gators (2013: 4-8 SU, 3-8-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1,500
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Gators: Florida had a dismal 2013 but signs are pointing up for the Gators in 2014. Injuries played a major role in their losing season, but a reversal of health figures to grace the Gators. Half of Florida’s losses last year came by six points or less, so it was competitive despite playing with an undermanned team.

Why not bet the Gators: The offense needs to improve by leaps and bounds after averaging an embarrassing low 18.8 points per game in 2013. Florida has ranked in the bottom 20 nationally in total offense over the last three seasons under head coach Will Muschamp’s direction.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5


Tennessee Volunteers (2013: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1,600
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Volunteers: Tennessee suffered through a miserable 5-7 season in head coach Butch Jones’ first year on the job. Expectations are extremely low in Knoxville, so the Volunteers may be able to surprise some teams this year. Tennessee plays hard for Jones, so it will give an honest effort in every game.

Why not bet the Volunteers: They are the only team in the country that lost all of their starters along the offensive and defensive lines. Tennessee also needs a quarterback to step in and lead the offense. This will be another rebuilding season for the Volunteers and they’ll be on the border of the six-win mark in 2014.

Season win total pick: Under 5.5


Missouri Tigers (2013: 12-2 SU, 11-3 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +2,500
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Tigers: Missouri had a breakout season in 2013 and they’ll look to carry over that momentum into 2014. The Tigers get a major break in the schedule this year as they do not have to face three of the better teams in the SEC - Alabama, LSU, and Auburn. Quarterback Maty Mauk gained valuable playing experience last year, so the QB transition should be smooth.

Why not bet the Tigers: The team returns only eight starters and off their best season in years, it’s unlikely they can repeat that success. Missouri’s defense will have the spotlight on it but after losing some key pieces, it’s a stretch to think they can match last year’s numbers when they allowed only 23.1 points per game.

Season win total pick: Under 9.5


Mississippi State Bulldogs (2013: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +2,800
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Bulldogs: Mississippi State has had a winning record in four consecutive years and with 16 returning starters, 2014 should be another successful campaign. The Bulldogs play a favorable schedule and their defense will be a stout unit.

Why not bet the Bulldogs: The Bulldogs regressed on offense last season, so they’ll need to bounce back strong if they want to contend in 2014. Mississippi State also needs significant improvement from its special teams - a unit that has cost it games in the past.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5


Texas A&M Aggies (2013: 9-4 SU, 4-9 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +2,800
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Aggies: Texas A&M should possess a potent offense once again in 2014. Head coach Kevin Sumlin runs terrific schemes and the Aggies have plenty of skill players on hand. In two years in College Station, Sumlin’s offense has averaged 44 points per game.

Why not bet the Aggies: Quarterback Johnny Manziel is gone along with big playmaker Mike Evans. Texas A&M’s defense does return nine starters, but that unit allowed an ugly 32.2 points per game last season. They also play six road games this season compared to playing just four away games last year.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5


Arkansas Razorbacks (2013: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +7,500
Season win total: 4.5

Why bet the Razorbacks: Arkansas holds value this season after going 3-9 in 2013. The Razorbacks will be much improved in the second year under head coach Bret Bielema. With 14 returning starters and two bye weeks on a tough schedule, Arkansas will pull an upset or two this season.

Why not bet the Razorbacks: Arkansas will play a very tough schedule this season. The Razorbacks defense is also a work in progress. They will be under their fourth different defensive coordinator (Robb Smith) over the last two and a half years. Arkansas allowed over 30 points per game in each of the last two seasons, so defensive improvement is a must in 2014.

Season win total pick: Over 4.5


Kentucky Wildcats (2013: 2-10 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +10,000
Season win total: 3.5

Why bet the Wildcats: Coming off back-to-back 2-10 seasons, Kentucky should be a much better team in 2014, especially with the return of 15 starters. The Wildcats will be in their second year under head coach Mark Stoops and will have a solid defense that will keep them competitive in 2014.

Why not bet the Wildcats: Kentucky’s new Air-Raid offense was grounded last season. And that unit will be under pressure to produce this season. The Wildcats need a starting quarterback to emerge and the job may land on freshman Drew Barker, who will find it difficult to navigate the rugged SEC East in his first collegiate season.

Season win total pick: Over 3.5


Vanderbilt Commodores (2013: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +25,000
Season win total: 6.5

Why bet the Commodores: Vanderbilt has gotten used to winning over the last two seasons. The Commodores have won 18 games but their wins have gone virtually unnoticed. Vanderbilt always holds pointspread value in the SEC and that makes them dangerous when catching big points.

Why not bet the Commodores: Head coach James Franklin left for Penn State and his departure will have a major impact on Vanderbilt’s future. The Commodores only return 10 starters and they lost five all-conference players. Vanderbilt will likely regress significantly in 2014.

Season win total pick: Under 6.5

 

[CNOTES]

Top Big Ten RB's

August 4, 2014

Top Big Ten QB's

1. Melvin Gordon - Wisconsin
In just two years, Gordon has built up quite the reputation despite never being "the guy" for the Badgers. As a freshman third string RB, Gordon tallied 621 rush yards on just 62 carries (10.0 YPC). As a sophomore splitting time with James White last year, Gordon ranked 2nd in the Big Ten with 1,609 yards (7.8 YPC) and 12 TD. He bypassed the NFL and a potential high draft slot to return for his redshirt junior year in Madison. He has the perfect combination of size and speed and is a true home run threat every time he touches the ball (led the nation in runs of 60+ yards and 70+ yards). He'll be working behind a classic, veteran UW offensive line and we expect huge numbers from Gordon this season.
Stock: Buy

2. Ameer Abdullah - Nebraska
Abdullah elected to bypass the NFL draft for one final season at Nebraska, where he led the Big Ten with 1,690 yards (6.0 YPC) on 281 carries as a junior in 2013. Perhaps more impressive is the fact that he was able to do this without consistent play at quarterback and opposing defenses would focus on stopping the run to little or no avail. Abdullah was also adept at receiving out of the backfield, catching 26 passes for 232 yards and 2 touchdowns. The one thing working against Abdullah this fall is that backup Imani Cross, a bowling ball at running back, will likely steal goal line carries away (10 rush TD in 2013). Still, QB play expects to be better in Lincoln this year and that's a good sign for Abdullah.
Stock: Hold

3. Jeremy Langford - Michigan State
In 2013, there weren't a lot of people who expected Langford to match the production that Le'Veon Bell had in 2012. Langford did just that with 1,422 yards (4.9 YPC) and 19 total touchdowns. Langford got off to a slow start, averaging just 62.2 yards per game over the first five weeks, never once exceeding 100 yards on the ground. He took off after that, however, with 123.4 YPG over the final nine, exceeding 100 yards rushing in eight of the nine games. Fourteen of Langford's 18 rushing touchdowns came in those nine games. With MSU fresh off of a Rose Bowl win and most of the offense back intact, expect 5th year senior Langford to pick up right where he left off.
Stock: Buy

4. Tevin Coleman - Indiana
Coleman really emerged as a sophomore last season after seeing minimal duty as a freshman. He provides big-play ability as evidenced by his 7.3 yards per carry on 131 attempts in 2013. His final tally was 958 rush yards and 12 touchdowns despite missing the final three games of the season with an injury. He scored a touchdown every game he was active and was also a threat coming out of the backfield with 19 receptions for 193 yards. Indiana's offense relies heavily on the pass and that allows opposing defenses to overlook the talented Coleman. As of right now, there's no one challenging to unseat him on the depth chart and we expect Coleman to have another big season for the Hoosiers.
Stock: Buy

5. Corey Clement - Wisconsin
Too high for a backup running back with 67 carries to his name? We don't think so. Clement was the third-stringer behind James White and Melvin Gordon last year, seeing mostly mop-up duty in Wisconsin's blowout wins. He still managed 547 yards on a ridiculous 8.2 YPC average with 7 TD. With James White and his 1,444 rushing yards from 2013 gone, the 5-11, 210-pound Clement figures to step up, and there's never a shortage of carries to go around in the Badgers' backfield. After all, Gordon and White both rushed 200+ times last year, combining for over 3,000 yards. With White gone,expect Clement to receive his share or carries and yards opposite Gordon. He's a special talent.
Stock: Buy

6. Ezekial Elliott - Ohio State
The state of the Buckeyes' backfield is still a bit unsettled. Gone are Carlos Hyde and Jordan Hall (combined 2,057 yards, 23 TD), leaving a group of unproven RB's for coach Urban Meyer to sift through. Meyer loves running the football on offense and we expect rising sophomore Ezekial Elliott to get a lot of looks. The speedy Elliott rushed for 262 yards and 2 TD with a remarkable 8.7 YPC in minimal duty last season. He has all the intangibles you look for in a star RB and has the size (6'0", 218 lbs) to make him durable in the rugged Big Ten. QB Braxton Miller gets a lot of attention from opposing defenses for both his arm and legs, but soon it will be Elliott whom opponents will put their focus on.
Stock: Buy

7. Josh Ferguson - Illinois
The dynamic Ferguson was one of the lone bright spots on an Illinois offense last season. Ferguson tallied 779 rush yards (5.5 YPC) and seven touchdowns in 2013. He also was able to add 50 receptions for 535 receiving yards and four touchdowns, making him a threat both in the running attack and passing attack. In fact, there were games in which he didn't achieve much in terms of rushing yards, but was able to leave his mark on the game through the air. With the arrival of new QB Wes Lunt, expectations are that Ferguson will see more holes in the running game while also making an impact as a receiver. He has seen his stats improve every year with more chances and we expect another strong year from the Illini running back.
Stock: Buy

8. Venric Mark - Northwestern
Mark entered 2013 as one of the Big Ten's top backs with mile-high expectations after becoming NU's first 1,000-yard rusher since 2006 in 2012 (1,366 rush yards and 12 TD). Injuries ruined his season and Mark finished with just 97 rush yards on 31 carries, playing in just three total games. Much of Northwestern's struggles in 2013 could be attributed to the fact that they were without Mark, their top offensive threat, for the majority of the season. Mark missed Spring practice after surgery and his frame (5'8", 175 lbs) makes us worry that he won't be able to remain healthy for an entire season. He will also have to fight off RB Treyvon Green, who rushed for 736 yards (5.4 YPC) and 8 TD in Mark's absence last year. Durability concerns put him at No. 8 on our list. Stock: Sell

9. David Cobb - Minnesota
Cobb had a solid sophomore campaign last year, rushing for 1,202 yards and seven touchdowns. He would figure to be higher on this list if the RB position wasn't so crowded in Minnesota. Cobb is the starter for now, and a good one at that, but behind him are proven veterans Donnell Kirkwood and Rodrick Williams Jr., as well has highly touted redshirt freshman Berkley Edwards and decorated recruit Jeff Jones. Cobb will get the majority of the carries early, but we expect Minnesota to turn to a running back by committee approach as the season rolls on. We wouldn't be surprised to see one the RB job seized by one of his backups by season's end.
Stock: Sell

10. Zach Zwinak - Penn State, Sr.
Zwinak tallied 1,000 rush yards as a sophomore in 2012 and nearly reached that total again with 989 rush yards in 2013. Respectable numbers for an upper-classmen that has split carries with fellow RB Bill Belton. At 6'1" and 240, he's the thunder to Belton's lightning - a bruising back that has averaged 4.8 YPC over the past two seasons. Zwinak saved his best for last in 2013, closing out the season with four consecutive games of 115+ yards on the ground. He'll still have to battle with Belton, along with rising sophomore Akeel Lynch (who rushed for 358 yards on just 60 carries last year). We're not absolutely sure what the RB rotation will be like under coach James Franklin and on top of all that, the offensive line depth at PSU is extremely thin - a couple of main reasons why he is this low on the list.
Stock: Hold

 

[CNOTES]

2014 SEC Predictions

August 7, 2014


Skinny

Only three of the SEC's 14 teams have a quarterback that started eight games or more last season. Three schools (Alabama, Texas A&M and Georgia) are arguably replacing the best signal callers in the history of their respective programs. With this in mind, the league appears to be as wide open as it has been in many years.

Alabama has the most stacked roster, in addition to an easier schedule compared to most other SEC squads, but it has a new offensive coordinator (Lame Chafin') and a new starting QB (likely Jacob Coker) who wasn't at spring practice.

Coker doesn't have to be great because he's surrounded by talent galore, including studs like RB T.J. Yeldon, RB Derrick Henry, WR Amari Cooper and others. The transfer from FSU has only seen playing time in mop-up duty, so we'll see how he fares against live bullets.

According to Phil Steele's schedule rankings, 'Bama has the SEC's easiest schedule, one that ranks No. 61 in the country. Eleven SEC schools fall into the Top 35 of Steele's difficulty rankings.

LSU's QB battle will be between Brandon Harris and Anthony Jennings, who got his first career start in a 21-14 Outback Bowl win over Iowa. Jennings threw the game-winning TD pass off the bench to beat Arkansas in a nail-biter, but Harris had a monster spring game performance and could be the man.

Look for Les Miles's team to get back to defense and running the football, unlike last season when the Tigers aired it out with Zach Mettenberger and didn't perform defensively like most of DC John Chavis's previous units at both LSU and Tennessee.

As always, LSU has plenty of depth at the running back position. Terrence Magee, Kenny Hilliard and true freshman Leonard Fournette will split the carries. Fournette was the nation's top prep back in the 2014 class.

Auburn might be better than last year, but the schedule is a killer. Steele ranks it as the nation's fifth toughest. Gus Malzahn's team has five daunting road assignments at Kansas St., at Mississippi St., at Ole Miss, at Georgia and at Alabama. If AU can win four of those games, that would be an incredible accomplishment.

The start of training camp came will bad news. Third-year sophomore offensive guard Alex Kozan will miss the entire 2014 campaign to undergo back surgery. Kozan started all 14 games in 2013 and garnered first-team Freshman All-American honors.

Nick Marshall won't start the opener at home vs. Arkansas due to a summer arrest for marijuana possession. But Marshall will play against the Hogs and should be in store for another banner year. Other than the third play of the BCS title game when he under-threw a pass that would've been an easy touchdown in an eventual loss to FSU, Marshall was outstanding in his first year as a starting QB.

The transfer from Georgia had a 14/6 TD-INT ratio and rushed for 1,068 yards and 12 TDs. AU loses RB Tre Mason but the backfield will be fine with Corey Grant (six rushing scores, 9.8 yards per carry in 2013) and Cameron Artis-Payne (six TDs, 6.8 YPC). Marshall has all of his top WRs back, including All-SEC candidate Sammie Coates.

I have Ole Miss at No. 9 in my initial Power Rankings and with some good fortune, Hugh Freeze's team could find itself in the mix for a potential trip to the SEC Championship Game, which would be a first for the school. The Rebels have never played at the Ga. Dome but will make their debut in their season opener on Thursday (8/28) against Boise St.

Ole Miss won't be facing as stout a squad as the one Chris Petersen brought to Atlanta where Kellen Moore led the Broncos to a blowout win over Georgia in 2011, and that's a good thing for the Rebels, who won't have All-American candidate Robert Nkemdiche, who will be serving a one-game suspension.

There's so much to like about this team starting with Freeze, who has brought a certain moxy to the program that has been projected from the recruiting trail to the field. Seriously, when on earth have any of us ever heard of Ole Miss plucking one of the nation's top WR prospects out of Chicago? That's what happened in 2013 with Laquon Treadwell, who is poised for a huge season after hauling in 72 receptions as a true freshman.

Bo Wallace returns for his third season as the starting QB. He threw for 3,346 yards in 2013 with an 18/8 TD-INT ratio. Wallace also rushed for six scores and he has a pair of talented junior RBs in I'Tavius Mathers and Jaylen Walton, who combined to rush for more than 1,000 yards and nine TDs after starter Jeff Scott was injured last year.

But the defense is the most impressive unit on this squad. They held their last seven opponents to 24 points or fewer last year. Safeties Cody Prewitt and Tony Conner are two of the nation's best, while Robert Nkemdiche is one of the country's premier pass rushers. Ole Miss also has a pair of LBs that are All-SEC candidates in Serderius Bryant and Denzel Nkemdiche.

The Rebels draw Vandy (in Nashville) and Tennessee (Oxford) from out of the SEC East, and they finally get 'Bama at home after playing competitive games, albeit with misleading final scores, at Bryant-Denny Stadium in back-to-back seasons.

Mississippi St. is another team that should be vastly improved and capable of making some noise in the West. The Bulldogs return eight starters on each side of the ball, and their defense allowed only 23.0 points per game in 2013 despite giving up 59 to LSU and 51 to Texas A&M.

Junior QB Dak Prescott is the real deal and the key for the Bulldogs, who should collect four easy victories in non-conference play. Dan Mullen's team will be a home favorite in SEC games versus Arkansas and Vandy, and it gets an open date ahead of an Oct. 25 game at Kentucky.

Although Prescott missed playing time due to multiple injuries and was coping with the death of his mother in late October, he rushed for 829 yards and 13 TDs. He also had 10 TD passes. Prescott has all of his top WRs back in the mix.

Texas A&M has an excellent offensive line and talented RBs, but the QB position is a major question mark. Kyle Allen and Kenny Hill are fighting for the starting job. Regardless of how the offense produces, it won't matter much if the Aggies don't vastly improve on defense.

Texas A&M allowed 32.2 PPG last season, losing home games against Alabama and Auburn when its offense scored 42 and 41 points, respectively. Nine starters were supposed to be returning, but three of those players have been dismissed from the program over the summer. The biggest loss is LB Darian Claiborne, who as a freshman was third on the team in tackles (89) and had 5.5 tackles for loss.

Arkansas appears to be the only SEC West team with zero hope of making it to Atlanta. The Hogs go into 2014 on a nine-game losing streak, but Bret Bielema knew he was undertaking a massive rebuilding project. I have no doubt that Bielema was a quality hire and will get the Razorbacks back into contention, but it's not going to be this season.

The Hogs have a terrific combo of RBs in Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams, and they'll work behind an outstanding offensive line. Therefore, Arkansas is going to be able to run the ball effectively, but it obviously needs improvement out of the passing game. Brandon Allen played with an injured shoulder for most of the last season, so we'll see how looks now that he's healthy.

The defense has an elite pass rusher in DE Trey Flowers, but this unit has a lot of holes. Robb Smith is the fourth DC the Hogs have had in four years. He'll need improvement from the cornerbacks, who gave up entirely too many big plays in 2013.

In the SEC East, I think we're going to have a three-team race between South Carolina, Georgia and Florida. These three schools feel good about their QB situations even though they didn't have major impacts last year.

UF's Driskel went down with a broken leg that ended his season in the first quarter of Week 3. After UGA's Aaron Murray tore his ACL, Hutson Mason got his first two career starts and engineered a comeback win at arch-rival Ga. Tech in the regular-season finale. Dylan Thompson was fantastic in 2012, lighting up Clemson in one of his two starts and throwing the game-winning scoring strike to beat Michigan at the Outback Bowl. But in a start at Mizzou last year and in extended duty at UCF, Thompson was inconsistent.

Mason's job will be made easier by two of the nation's top RBs in Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall. He also has a veteran group of WRs, although we should note that the status of Malcolm Mitchell is in question after he injured his knee a few days ago.

Georgia has a new DC in Jeremy Pruitt, who came over from FSU where he was DC after working on Saban's staff at Alabama. Pruitt has an extremely talented set of LBs, including All-American candidates Ramik Wilson and Leonard Floyd.

South Carolina lost Connor Shaw, Jadeveon Clowney, Kelcy Quarles and a pair of solid cornerbacks, but Steve Spurrier's program reloads at this point in his tenure. There are no more rebuilding years in Columbia. The Gamecocks had never won 11 games in a season prior to the HBC's arrival, but now they've won 11 in three consecutive seasons.

South Carolina returns eight starters on offense and six on defense. Spurrier will have his best offensive line during his 10-year tenure and he's got on e of the nation's best RBs in Mike Davis, who rushed for 1,183 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 5.8 YPC in 2013. Thompson has plenty of solid targets, including WR Shaq Roland, WR Damiere Byrd and a pair of huge tight ends in Rory Anderson and Jerell Adams. From the SEC West, South Carolina draws Texas A&M at home and has to travel to Auburn. The 'Cocks get UGA, Missouri and Tennessee at home, but they have to play at Florida and at Clemson.

Will Muschamp's hot seat is boiling but you'd never know it by his behavior at SEC Media Days. The fourth-year head coach was completely comfortable and confident that his team is poised to flip the script from last year's 4-8 nightmare, including an unfathomable loss to Ga. Southern.

The 2013 Gators endured a rash of injuries like nothing ever seen before in school history. The only QB with experience (Driskel) went down in Week 3, the best defensive player (Dominique Easley) tore his ACL after only four games, both starting OTs were lost for the year and the season-ending injuries eventually went north of a dozen.

UF has two of the nation's best defensive players in CB Vernon Hargreaves and DE Dante Fowler. Muschamp is one of the best defensive minds in the coaching business, and it's a given that this unit is going to be salty.

Muschamp hired Duke OC Kurt Roper, who has installed an up-tempo spread offense that utilizes the shotgun and is better suited to Driskel's skills. The o-line should be solid and RBs Kelvin Taylor and Matt Jones appear poised to have big seasons. The biggest question mark is a WR group that has been beyond disappointing in recent years.

Missouri lost a ton of talent from last year's SEC East champs. The Tigers return just four starters on each side of the ball. They have a pair of dynamic RBs in Russell Hansbrough (6.0 YPC) and Marcus Murphy (6.5 YPC), and rising sophomore QB Maty Mauk went 4-1 and was impressive in five starts after James Franklin was injured.

Mauk can make plays with his legs, but he needs to be more accurate and improve on his 51.1 completion percentage. And he won't have the brilliant set of wideouts he worked with last season. The defense lost studs galore, but it still has one of the league's best pass rushers in Markus Golden.

Tennessee has recruited extremely well under Butch Jones, but this team appears to be at least another year away. The Volunteers have one of the country's best LBs in A.J. Johson and a solid secondary. However, they are weak up front on both sides of the ball.

Nearly the entire offensive line must be replaced. Justin Worley has proven he's not an elite QB in this conference, but (if he wins the job) he does have a pair of developing playmakers in 'Pig' Howard (assuming he's reinstated as expected) and Marquez North. But UT's daunting schedule will most likely leave it needing at win at Vandy in the regular-season finale in order to avoid being left out of the postseason for a fourth straight year.

Can Vanderbilt continue its rise without James Franklin? You can make a valid argument that no coach in America could've accomplished what Franklin did in Music City in just three years. But he's off to Penn St., replaced by Stanford defensive coordinator Derek Mason.

The Commodores bring back six starters on offense but just four on defense. A fourth straight bowl bid will be determined by what happens in games at Kentucky and vs. Tennessee, but it's highly unlikely Vandy can match the nine wins it has produced in back-to-back seasons.

Like Jones at UT, Kentucky's Mark Stoops is doing a great job on the recruiting trail. Nevertheless, the Wildcats are still one or two years away from competing for a spot in the postseason.

Fearless Predictions

2014 Win-Loss Projections

School Record Win Total (5Dimes) Bowl Projection

West Division

Alabama 11-2 10.5 #4 vs. #1 FSU in National Semifinals

Auburn 9-3 9 Belk Bowl vs. ACC

LSU 9-3 9 Independence vs. ACC

Ole Miss 9-3 8.5 Capital One Bowl vs. Big Ten/ACC

Mississippi State 9-3 7.5 Birmingham vs. American

Texas A&M 8-4 7 Texas Bowl vs. Big 12

Arkansas 3-9 4.5 -


East Division

South Carolina 10-3 9.5 Orange Bowl vs. TBD

Florida 9-3 7.5 Outback Bowl vs. Big Ten

Georgia 9-3 9.5 Peach Bowl vs. Big Ten runner-up

Missouri 8-4 7.5 Liberty vs. Big 12

Tennessee 6-6 5.5 Music City vs. ACC

Vanderbilt 5-7 5.5 -

Kentucky 4-8 3.5 -


Games to Watch

1-Auburn at Alabama - (Nov. 29) We saw the greatest edition of the storied Iron Bowl rivalry last year with the kick-six on the final play of the previously tied game. People can debate where it should rank in terms of college football's all-time greatest games, but there's no doubt it had the best finish (forget Cal-Stanford and the band and countless others). This year's game in Tuscaloosa could decide the SEC West again and the winner could be in line for a bid to the first Final Four.

2-Georgia at South Carolina - (Sep. 13) South Carolina saw a three-game winning streak over UGA stopped in Athens last season. The Bulldogs get two weeks to prep for the Gamecocks, who face Texas A&M and East Carolina at home beforehand. The winner will be in the driver's seat in the SEC East.

3-Alabama at Ole Miss - (Oct. 4) The Rebels have an excellent chance to go into this game with a 4-0 record, which would make this the biggest game in Oxford since Eli's playing days. They will have to play extremely well, but Freeze's bunch has the talent to pull this upset at home.

4-Auburn at Mississippi St. - (Oct. 11) AU will be playing its fourth game in four weeks and could fall into a slight letdown scenario after taking on LSU at home the prior weekend. The Bulldogs have a solid shot at being 4-1 going into this contest with an open date and then three games as favorites looming. In other words, MSU will be gunning for Auburn, a team that had to go more than 80 yards in less than two minutes to capture a last-second victory over the Bulldogs on The Plains last year.

5-Florida vs. Georgia - (Nov. 1) Georgia owned Florida in the 1980s. When Spurrier took over at UF in 1990, he went 11-1 against UGA. Even The Zooker went 2-1 versus the Dawgs. The Gators' domination would go on until 2011 when UGA won the first of three in a row. Muschamp went 0-4 vs. UF as a player at UGA, and now he's 0-3 vs. UGA as head coach at UF. This game will likely have SEC East ramifications and might be a must-win for Muschamp to make it to a fifth season in Gainesville.

Players to Watch

1-Leonard Fournette (LSU RB) -- If this true freshman is as advertised, then LSU's rushing attack is going to be dynamite. And the Bayou Bengals are going to need a strong ground game because they are very inexperienced at the QB position. Fournette was ranked the No. 1 RB in the 2014 prep class.

2-Dak Prescott (Mississippi St. QB) -- Prescott dealt with personal tragedy and several injuries last season, yet nearly led the Bulldogs to an upset at Auburn in his second career start. He was the catalyst in the team's three-game winning streak to close 2013. If he had been healthy in a home game against Alabama, MSU might have taken the Tide down.

3-Jeff Driskel (UF QB), Dylan Thompson (S-Car QB) and Hutson Mason (UGA QB) -- All three are capable players that have had their moments. As noted above, whoever plays the best in 2014 most likely gets his team to Atlanta.

4-Derrick Henry (Alabama RB) - How nasty did this guy look in the Sugar Bowl loss to Alabama? He has it all -- size, speed, power and then some. We all know T.J. Yeldon is legit, but I expect Henry to become the featured back in the Tide's offense this year.

5-Robert Nkemdiche (Ole Miss DE) - If Ole Miss is going to make its debut at the SEC Championship Game, Nkemdiche needs to be a first-team All-American. He also needs to make game-changing plays (like sacks and forced fumbles vs. 'Bama and vs. Auburn) and he's more than capable of doing so.

6-Mike Davis (S-Car RB) and Todd Gurley (UGA RB) -- If both can stay healthy, their respective teams are going to be in great shape.

7-Maty Mauk (Missouri QB) -- He won't have the weapons at his disposal that he enjoyed last year. But if he has a monster season, perhaps Mizzou can be a fourth candidate out of the SEC East to possibly win the division.

 

[CNOTES]

Team to Watch - UNC

August 7, 2014

Power vacuums are nothing new in the ACC; we recall one such instance not long ago, in the middle of the last decade, when simultaneous downturns by Florida State and Clemson in the Atlantic half of the loop, and Miami stumbling in the Coastal, provided an opening for Jim Grobe's Wake Forest, which famously broke through for an unexpected league crown in 2006.

Similarly, the Coastal half collectively collapsed around Duke last season, allowing the Blue Devils to sneak in and steal the division. And while traditional powers Virginia Tech and Miami try to regroup this fall, there is room on the rail for another Duke-like entity to emerge in the Coastal.

Only this time, we suspect it will be North Carolina (2013 SUR 7-6, ATS 8-5).

There are several reasons to be interested in the Tar Heels, though before going much further, we are keeping a close watch on off-field developments regarding accusations of past academic fraud within the athletic department. Most of that focus is one the basketball side, as the NCAA has re-opened an investigation of UNC's suspect Department of African-American Studies, and evidence of shenanigans that involved numerous athletes, including several high-profile sorts such as current whistle-blower and ex-hoopster Rashad McCants.

If the subject matter sounds familiar, it should. Since 2011, the university has conducted several reviews related to the academics scandal and provided the NCAA with updates. North Carolina announced in 2012 that it had found problems with 54 classes in the Department of African and Afro-American Studies (AFAM) taught from summer 2007 to summer 2011, including grade changes, forged faculty signatures on grade rolls and limited or no class time. UNC forwarded the results of that investigation to the NCAA, which ruled the university did not break any rules related to the AFAM scandal.

But, in February, the university hired former federal prosecutor Kenneth Wainstein to conduct an independent investigation and instructed him to share relevant information directly with the NCAA. Former faculty member Julius Nyang'oro is on trial for felony criminal fraud as a result of the scandal, though the judge in his case is considering dropping the charges because he has been cooperating with the Wainstein investigation. The McCants revelations, recently aired on ESPN's Outside the Lines, have added another dimension to the controversy.

Whether the football program gets caught in the crossfire (and not the Pat Buchanan/Bill Press style) remains to be seen. Remember, the UNC gridders were already fingered by the NCAA a few years ago. To refresh memories, in March of 2012, the Tar Heel football program was hit with heavy NCAA sanctions, including a bowl ban for 2012, scholarship reductions (15 over three years), vacated victories, and three years probation. All after other issues of academic fraud, impermissible agent interactions, and ineligible players had cost football coach Butch Davis and AD Dick Baddour their jobs.

Late in 2011, a new AD, Bubba Cunningham, was hired from Tulsa in hopes of cleaning up the mess. Meanwhile, after the football program waded through 2011 with an interim coach, d.c. Everett Withers, the Heels brought in the highly-respected Larry Fedora, who had led Southern Miss to some new heights in Hattiesburg, including a 12-2 mark in his final season of 2011 with the Golden Eagles.

Assuming the new NCAA investigation doesn't cause extra distractions, it's the presence of Fedora that makes us believe the Heels are the team to beat in the Coastal this season, especially after the postseason ban was lifted a year ago.

The 2014 Heels match the profile of a program and team on the ascent. For one, it is always natural to point to teams that finished strong the previous season and wonder if they can sustain that momentum into a new campaign. With a 6-1 stretch to close 2013, capped by a 39-17 thrashing of Cincinnati in the Belk Bowl, UNC fits this bill perfectly. Furthermore, Fedora's credentials, though well-established before his hiring in Chapel Hill, have become even more burnished after the USM program collapsed upon his departure, losing 23 straight games at one point and already on its second head coach since Fedora's departure.

A healthy dose of fourteen starters returns to the Tar Heel fold, split evenly among the offensive and defensive platoons (seven each). But before making reservations for the ACC title game at Charlotte, there are a couple of nagging questions. UNC still has a quarterback battle to solve, and it has some issues on both of its lines.

That there are some QB questions might come as a surprise, since jr. Marquise Williams flashed so much upside down the stretch in 2013 in relief of injured Bryn Renner. In just over half of the season, Williams' numbers impressed greatly, including a combined 2,234 yards passing and rushing, along with 21 total touchdowns, to anchor a UNC turnaround from a 1-5 start to the season, to a bowl. But Fedora was adamant this spring that the QB job was up for grabs, and Williams will enter fall camp very much in a battle for his spot with ballyhooed RS frosh Mitch Trubisky, one of the nation's top dual-threat signal callers from the Class of 2013.

ACC sources, however, suggest it is more likely that Fedora is spoiled for choice, and there is a chance that both are more than capable of detonating the fast-paced Fedora spread that scored 33 ppg last season. Williams also adds a dynamic run dimension to the mix. At the worst, most regional insiders believe UNC has two QBs it can use effectively. Since when has depth behind center been a negative?

Fedora also has plenty of depth at RB, where returning starter T.J. Logan (533 YR and 5.7 ypc in 2013) leads a quartet full of speed and power, and now adds the top recruit in North Carolina, Elijah Hood, a blistering 220-pounder who rambled for 3690 YR in his senior season at Charlotte Catholic. The receiving corps will have to proceed without the unique dimension of TE Eric Ebron (Lions 1st-round pick), but there are established targets still in the fold, including rangy 6'4 wideouts Quinshad Davis (10 TDs in 2013) and Bug Howard.

The questions offensively, as a year ago, lie up front, where last year's forward wall was plagued by inconsistency, and its top two performers, including LT James Hurst (in the Ravens camp this summer), must be replaced. Still, three starters return, and the "O" did score 45 ppg in the last five games a year ago. There are other pluses, including a crackling return game that was responsible for a staggering seven KR/PR TDs in 2013 (five punt return TDs alone by soph Ryan Switzer, also a deep-threat WR, and two KR TDs by RB Logan).

We have little doubt the Fedora offense is capable of leading the Heels to the top of the Coastal. Defensively, however, we're not quite so sure, although the platoon did seem to finally get the hang of d.c. Vic Koenning's aggressive and unorthodox 3-3-5 alignments as last season progressed. The Heels would allow only 22.4 ppg in ACC play last season, down more than 10 points from the year before.

Koenning's preference is to bring blitzes from all over the field, although it helps to get some push from the line, and to that end the replacement of impact DE Kareem Martin (Cardinals 3rd-round pick), and his 11 1/2 sacks from last season, will be crucial. Senior "Bandit" Norkeithus Otis (7 1/2 sacks LY), however, is the the sort of playmaker Koenning can deploy effectively.

In hopes of getting his best athletes on the field, Koenning made handful of position switches in spring. Speedy sr. Darius Lipford has shifted from "Bandit" to MLB, while sr. Tim Scott moved to safety to open up a CB spot for emerging soph Brian Walker. A key development will be the progress of sr. WLB Travis Hughes, whose enormous potential has gone mostly unfulfilled after being a highly-decorated recruit a few years ago.

The Heels catch one break with their schedule, avoiding Florida State, and will be able to ramp up to their meat of the slate that really begins with the September 27 trip to Clemson. But there is not a game that looks unwinnable. If that charge down the stretch last season (when the Heels won 6 of their last 7 SU and covered 7 of their last 8) was no mirage, the momentum could carry UNC a long way this fall. We know the Heels have the coach to get them to the ACC title game.

 

[CNOTES]

These second-year NCAAF head coaches could cash in big for bettors

There were 30 new head coaches at the FBS level in 2013, putting many programs through growing pains. But now that these coaches enter Year 2 with their respective schools, bettors should expect bigger and better things.

Here are some second-year head coaches primed for an improvement – and possibly big ATS profits - in 2014:

Mike MacIntyre, Colorado Buffaloes (4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS)

Coming off four wins in two years, Mike MacIntyre started off his tenure with a 4-8 record and posted a steady 7-5 ATS mark.

Colorado’s win total is listed at four and it's possible that the Buffaloes could get to four wins in their first five games, playing beatable foes Colorado State, UMass, Hawaii and Cal before October.

Mark Stoops, Kentucky Wildcats (2-10 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Mark Stoops went just 2-10 in 2013 (4-8 ATS) but he’s slowly closing the talent gap with the rest of the SEC East, and will still get plenty of points from the oddsmakers this year.

Kentucky’s win total is a modest 3.5 wins and UK should hit three with its non-conference schedule featuring winnable games versus UTM, Ohio and Louisiana-Monroe. The SEC schedule is brutal, as always, but the Wildcats have Vanderbilt and Mississippi State at home and could steal one on the road against Missouri or Tennessee.

Dave Doeren, North Carolina State Wolfpack (3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Dave Doeren had a tough first year going 3-9 overall and 4-8 ATS. A lot went wrong for the Pack to go winless in the ACC and they will see a turnaround this season, especially if new quarterback Jacoby Brissett hits the ground running.

Books have NC State’s win total at 5.5 wins and the schedule dictates that it should start off 4-0 barring an upset. After playing FSU and then Clemson, they have six conference games that are winnable.

Gary Anderson, Wisconsin Badgers (9-4 SU, 9-3-1 ATS)

After going 9-4 in Gary Anderson's debut season, oddsmakers set the Badgers’ 2014 season win total at 9.5. One of the reasons for that is the schedule. Yes, Wisconsin starts out against LSU, but if you look down the calendar you’ll find names like Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and Penn State are missing.

Another interesting note for the Badgers is that they don't play a single team that beat them in 2013, which is extremely odd for a program that lost four games last season. If they get past LSU, this could very well be a team that ends up in the inaugural College Football Playoff, bring happy bettors along for the ride. With their toughest conference road game being Iowa, the Badgers should be thinking Big Ten Championship Game all the way.

 

[CNOTES]

Fade Alert - Ohio

August 10, 2014


The Mid-American Conference has earned its stripes as a quality conference in college football. We’ve seen some great schools produce on the gridiron in the MAC and we’ve also had a handful of teams that have been automatic fades at the betting counter.

Ohio University has been a very consistent winner, earning a bowl trip each of the last five years. This season, instead of appearing in the "Beef ‘O' Brady's Bowl" or the "Idaho Potato Bowl", I’m predicting that the Bobcats will appear in the infamous toilet bowl.

Ohio UNDER 6 ½ (-175)

At 5Dimes.eu, the Bobcats have a win total of 6 ½ and the money is shaded to the ‘under’ (-175), which says something right off the bat. I don’t have any issues laying the extra juice because there is no way that Ohio wins seven games in the regular season.

I have been a huge Frank Solich backer for many years but I believe the head coach has lost it. During last season's late three-game losing streak in November, Solich looked like Humphrey Bogart in "The Caine Mutiny".

His assistants would run when he looked at them and the team fell into disarray. The late season free-fall was abated only by a visit by lowly Massachusetts, who Ohio easily hammered 58-23. In the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl a few weeks later in December, East Carolina pounded the Bobcats 37-20 on the ground.

This season, I expect the Bobcats to lack scoring punch. They have zero talent at the offensive skill positions. Losing veteran quarterback Tyler Tettleton will be tough to replace, plus Ohio also needs to find a replacement for running back Beau Blankenship too.

From a schedule perspective, Ohio didn’t get any gifts this season.

The Bobcats play away from home in their first three contests (Kent State, Kentucky, Marshall). If Solich can't escape Kent with a win, he will return to Athens 0-3, rolling his ball bearings in his hand like Captain Quegg from the aforementioned “The Caine Mutiny.”

At 0-3, his seat may get hot in Athens.

Fortunately for Ohio it stays home for the next two games and most would believe the school could rebound with wins over Idaho and Eastern Illinois.

Soon after, Game 6 is at Central Michigan and this is dangerous. The Chippewas bring back 11 starters on offense and they will blow the Bobcats off the field. CMU has a big-time NFL WR in Titus Davis and he will excel against the Bobcats raw secondary.

Delving into the first six games further, the best case scenario for Ohio is 2-4 but I believe a 1-5 mark is very possible and 0-6 would not be surprising, especially if Idaho and Eastern Illinois bring their “A” game to Athens. Make a note that EIU is a quality squad and plays great football albeit at the lower level (1-AA).

The final six games get a little more interesting but based on my thoughts below, you can see why I’m still buying the ‘under’ 6 ½ for Ohio this regular season.

Game 7 vs. Bowling Green: This is a definite loss, and it could get ugly on homecoming for Ohio. Bowling Green is coming to town and they bring a future NFL starter at QB in Matt Johnson. The Falcons will rack up a big number and leave Ohio in the dust. Last year, the Falcons won 49-0 and nothing, except for the change in venue, leads me to believe that this contest will be any closer. Solich will be snapping at assistants and rolling his ball bearings compulsively one-handedly. The Bobcats drop to 2-5 or 3-4.

Game 8 vs. Akron: Terry Bowden will bring a rejuvenated Akron team to Athens. Akron plays Penn State, Marshall, and Pittsburgh during September so the Zips' record won’t be great and they could go off as slight underdogs here. That would be great because Akron is going to repay Solich for running up the score in last year's 43-3 win in the Rubber City. This will be another contest where the Bobcats' lack of offense allows an opponent to get loose and play "downhill" all game. Ohio University goes to 2-6 or 3-5.

Game 9 at Western Michigan: The Broncos should be improved but they are still a bottom class MAC squad. This is no gimme victory for the Bobcats. This game is at Western Michigan, the weather may be cold and windy, and as mentioned above Ohio University lacks a QB. Look for a close game between bad teams. I’d lean to Ohio winning a close game. They move to 3-6 or 4-5.

Game 10 vs. Buffalo: The Bulls has a winner behind center in Joe Licata. The loss of linebacker Khalil Mack will be felt all season for Buffalo’s defense but this is a spot where it won't matter. The Bulls will score 40 or more and beat Ohio as badly as they did last season (30-3). The Bobcats will drop to 3-7 or 4-6 and with NIU on deck, bettors will start to see this school pack it in.

Game 11 vs. Northern Illinois: The Huskies loses quarterback Jordan Lynch but little else. They will field a decent QB this fall and that is all they need to make it to the MAC Championship Game. The Huskies will have no trouble beating Ohio. The Bobcats will fall behind and their lack of QB play will make comebacks impossible this season. Ohio goes to 3-8 or 4-7.

Game 12 at Miami, Ohio: I believe the RedHakws are a beatable team for Solich and the Bobcats. However, I also believe that this Ohio team will have folded the tent by kickoff. Look for Miami to best the Bobcats as slight home underdogs on Senior Day. Ohio University finishes at 3-9 or 4-8.

 

[CNOTES]

2014 Sun Belt Preview

August 10, 2014

2014 Sun Belt Conference Football Preview

Trips To Win

Owners of three consecutive seasons with no less than nine victories - including three straight New Orleans Bowl wins in three years by Mark Hudspeth – Louisiana Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns has become the one constant in the ever-changing Sun Belt Conference.

A spicy attack, led by senior dual-threat quarterback Terrance Broadway, the league preseason offensive player of the year and a Davey O’Brien watch list candidate, finds Louisiana as the team to beat in 2014.

And with it a grand slam certainly looks to be in the offing.

Take A Look At Me Now

After losing Western Kentucky and gaining Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Idaho and New Mexico State, the new-look Sun Belt Conference

And this year the Sun Belt champion is eligible for a New Year’s Day bowl bid. In addition the conference has tie-ins with up to four bowls this season with the New Orleans, GoDaddy and Camellia bowls the other three. The league adds the Cure Bowl in 2015 and the Miami Beach and Bahamas bowls in 2016.

In addition, the ‘Fun in the Sun’ guys currently owns a winning bowl record in games played since 2007, going 10-7 SU (2-0 SUATS last year), including 5-0-1 ATS as dogs.

A recently signed contract with ESPN guarantees the Sun Belt new radiant exposure on the programming giant through the 2019 season.

R-E-S-P-E-C-T

The Sun Belt was among the top-mid-major conferences in 2013, going 8-1 against the Conference USA, the Mountain West and the MAC.

Major non-conference clashes this season include Louisiana at Ole Miss and at Boise State, Arkansas State at Tennessee and at Miami Florida, and South Alabama home versus Mississippi State and away at South Carolina.

Two particular disturbing stats, however: 1) Sun Belt teams are 14-137 in game against former BCS AQ (Automatic Qualifier) teams the last seven years, and 2) in total, six Sun Belt teams were either in the Football Championship Subdivision or participating as an independent within the past three seasons.

Show Me The Money

According to USA Today database of salaries for NCAA FBS head coaches, former Western Kentucky coach Bobby Petrino led the SBC in total pay last season at $855,000.

Bothe Petrino and the Hilltoppers have departed, moving Louisiana-Lafayette boss Mark Hudspeth to the top of the earning ladder.

Coach Hud’s pat as it stands now averages $1.075 million over six years, making the six-year total $6.45 million, not including supplements, incentives or retention annuities.

Here is the list of who earns what in the Sun Belt:

Mark Hudspeth, ULL, $950,000
Blake Anderson, Arkansas State, $700,000
Larry Blakeney, Troy, $480.000
Trent Miles, Georgia State, $450,000
Joey Jones, South Alabama, $435,000
Dennis Franchione, Texas State, $400,000
Paul Petrino, Idaho, $390,000
Doug Martin, New Mexico State, $363,000
Todd Berry, ULM, $306,000
Willie Fritz, Georgia Southern, $300,000
Scott Saterfield, Appalachian State, $225,000

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.

APPALACHIAN STATE (Offense - *9/5 Defense - 7/2)

TEAM THEME: MOUNTAIN CLIMBERS
The Mountaineers have a storied history in the FCS, becoming the first team to win national titles in three consecutive seasons (2005-07) since Division-1 Army in 1944-46. But the glory years at ASU under 24-year HC Jerry Moore are now history as Scott Satterfield stepped in last season to guide the transition to the FBS. Satterfield, a former walk-on QB at the school in the early 90’s, posted a 4-8 record in his inaugural campaign, the Mountaineers’ first losing season since 1993. This season opens with a trip to Ann Arbor, where Michigan will be ready for revenge from the monumental upset in 2007 that put Appalachian State on the cover of SI. Gulp. Nonetheless, ASU is picked to finish 7th in the loop this season. We wouldn’t disagree.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Mountaineers are not eligible for a bowl appearance until next season.

ARKANSAS STATE (Offense - 4/2 Defense - 8/1)

TEAM THEME: HERE WE GO AGAIN
Forget Oxford. Jonesboro has become the Cradle of Coaches after seeing five coaches in five years do a great job, then move on to a higher profile school for fame and fortune. Bryan Harsin is the latest HC to follow in the footsteps of Gus Malzahn and Hugh Freeze, and leave the Red Wolves high and dry after a 7-5 campaign to go back for the top job at his alma mater, Boise State. Blake Anderson steps in as HC No. 6 since 2008 after coming over from North Carolina, where he served as Larry Fedora’s OC. With a non-conference schedule that features Tennessee, Utah State and Miami (FL), we’re betting Anderson fails to make it 6-for-6.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Red Wolves are 20-3 SU and 17-6 ATS from Game Six out the last three years.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN Off – *8/3 Defense – 7/1)

TEAM THEME: PUTTIN’ ON THE FRITZ
The Eagles finished off the year strong in their final FCS season, winning their last three games to go 7-4. However, it was the win over Florida in the Swamp to close the year that put the cherry on top of the sundae. Willie Fritz takes over this season, coming from offensive powerhouse Sam Houston State. SHSU was the only FCS school to average over 40 points in each of the last two seasons with a rushing offense that ran for 5.7 yards per play and scored 79 TD's last season. It fits like a glove with the Eagles’ powerful overland game. Look for GSU to shine in its initial foray in the Sun Belt this season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Eagles rushed for 360 YPG last season, the highest in the nation among FCS or FBS teams.

GEORGIA STATE (Offense - *5/3 Defense - 5/1)

TEAM THEME: THAT WHICH IS MEASURED, IMPROVES
When the Panthers hired 'Coach Whisperer' Trent Miles to revitalize a downtrodden team, they knew the deal. The fledgling program had gone from 6-5, to 3-8, to 1-10 in three seasons… and it was time to enter the FBS waters to boot. Enter Miles who, after going 1-22 his first two years at Indiana State, led ISU to three winning seasons in a row before his hire at GSU. His first season with the Panthers mirrored his first year with the Sycamores, 0-12. If success is measured in increments by past performance, a 1-win effort this year would fit the profile. With the new Cure Bowl an eventual goal, it’s time to get the measuring stick out.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Georgia State was one of three Sun Belt teams since 2002 to go winless, joining Western Kentucky in 2009 and Florida International in 2006.

IDAHO (Offense - 8/4 Defense - 7/2)

TEAM THEME: JUCO VISION
After being outscored 46.8 to 18.2, and out yarded by 157 YPG, en route to a 1-11 mark in his first season with the Vandals, HC Paul Petrino went out and immediately signed 16 JUCO transfers for his 2014 recruiting class in hopes of making quick progress in a tough undertaking. The offensive line returns four starters and 100 career starts, while exciting WR Dezmon Epps (980 receiving yards last year) is back for his senior season. The bad news is the annual Idaho athletic budget ($4M) pales next to Alabama’s athletic resources ($123M), and is less than 60% of what Nick Saban earns. It’s the cost of doing business in Moscow as opposed to Tuscaloosa.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Minus two winning seasons under Rob Akey in 2009-10, Idaho has gone 22-108 since 2001.

LA-LAFAYETTE (Offense - *8/4 Defense - 8/2)

TEAM THEME: CHANGIN’ CAJUNS
Louisiana or La-Lafayette. Take your choice. Whatever, you call them, just don’t call them late for a bowl game, as Mark Hudspeth has recorded three straight 9-4 seasons and three straight New Orleans Bowl victories. FYI: ULL is one of only twelve FBS programs to own at least nine wins each of the past three seasons. QB Terrance Broadway, who suffered a broken wrist and missed the last two regular season games before returning for the bowl win over Tulane, is one of sixteen returning starters including running back Alonzo Harris, a Doak Walker watch list candidate. The athleticism, the experience and the depth will pay dividends on the field, and Hudspeth’s expertise on the sidelines may complete the picture. Should they hold up their end in Sun Belt play, a spot in the Cotton Bowl may not be so farfetched. Call them whatever you may. We call them dangerous.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Hudspeth is 7-0 ATS as a dog versus winning opponents.

LA-MONROE (Offense - 6/3 Defense - 9/3)

TEAM THEME: FOR PETE’S SAKE
Many have no idea what to expect from ULM in 2014 as a spring battle was being waged between several non-descript QB candidates to replace Kolton Browning. Then, in early May came the announcement that Pete Thomas was transferring to ULM from NC State. Thomas has basically washed out at two schools (Colorado State was the first) despite throwing for nearly 6,000 career yards. The flip side is 30 interceptions in 30 games versus just 22 TD passes. The defense suffered very few losses and should show much-needed improvement. Todd Berry, the former HC at Army, is instilling a new aggressive attitude in Monroe and it’s beginning to show.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: ULM was the nation’s 2nd-worst ranked team in red zone offense last season.

NEW MEXICO STATE (Offense - 7/4 Defense - 4/1)

TEAM THEME: WHERE THE SUN DOESN’T SHINE
The Aggies will play for the first time in the Sun Belt Conference in Doug Martin’s second season at the helm. Martin’s first season in Las Cruces did not go well as the Aggies lost their first seven games before finishing the campaign 2-3, with wins over Abilene Christian and a 1-11 Idaho program. Martin is considered a quarterback mentor, and he will need to summon all of his talents in finding a suitable replacement for Andrew McDonald, who threw for nearly 2,500 yards in his senior season. The defense has nowhere to go but up after allowing 44.6 PPG and 549.5 YPG – the worst of all FBS squads.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Aggies allowed seven foes season-high yardage last season.

SOUTH ALABAMA (Offense - 8/4 Defense - 6/1)

TEAM THEME: ON THE PROWL
HC Joey Jones, the former Alabama WR who played under the great Bear Bryant, enters his seventh season after a solid 6-6 campaign. Jones will have plenty of experience returning in 2014, including his entire defensive secondary and four offensive linemen who started last season, plus a 3-year starter in OL Melvyn Meggs, who sat out last year after an offseason injury. JJ also brings back two receivers that set a school record with 50 receptions last season: WR Shavarez Smith and TE Wes Saxton. Saxton’s 50 catches for 635 yards ranked him in the Top 5 among the nation’s tight ends. The Jaguars look to be bowling in 2014.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: After committing 18 turnovers in conference play in 2012, the Jaguars committed 6 turnovers in 7 conference games last season.

TEXAS STATE (Offense - *8/4 Defense - 4/0)

TEAM THEME: 9-1-1 MAKEOVER
The Bobcats begin their 4th year in Dennis Franchione’s second stint at the school, and their third season since moving up to FBS play. Texas State earned bowl eligibility in 2013, but thanks to a 2-5 Sun Belt record – and the loss of three straight games to end the season – the Bobcats stayed home for the holidays. However, this year’s schedule is conducive to landing a post-season spot, especially if dual-threat QB Tyler Jones can stay healthy after missing four games last season as a freshman. The defense must be rebuilt, especially the DL, which must start from scratch – causing Franchione to feverishly dial up the 9-1-1 JUCO hotline.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Franchione’s 203 career wins ranks him among the Top 5 of active FBS head coaches.

TROY (Offense - 6/3 Defense - 6/1)

TEAM THEME: BY THE BOOK
When a team loses a 4-year starting QB (Corey Robinson) who was one of only four quarterbacks in college history to finish with four seasons of 3,000 yards passing, it generally becomes panic-time. Not for HC Larry Blakeney, the 2nd-winningest active coach in career victories at his current school. Instead, he’ll simply retool behind a deep, experienced offensive line. The defensive line suffered serious attrition (due in part to the tragic death of DE Jadarius Garner in the offseason), but Blakeney signed four JUCO linemen in a pinch, and the secondary is deep. A 3-year bowl absence will end if the defense comes around. Book it.

 

[CNOTES]

2014 Pac-12 Predictions

August 12, 2014


Skinny

Oregon is the -130 favorite to win the Pac-12 at Sportsbook.ag. The Ducks, who are one of just three teams (South Carolina and Alabama being the others) to finish in the Top-10 of the national rankings three years in a row, didn't miss a beat without Chip Kelly in Mark Helfrich's first season as head coach.

For the fourth year in a row, Oregon went into November right in the thick of the national-title hunt. However, a second straight one-possession loss to Stanford got the Cardinal to the Pac-12 Championship Game ahead of the Ducks.

Oregon returns eight starters on offense and five on defense. Junior quarterback Marcus Mariota (6/1) has the second-shortest odds to win the Heisman Trophy behind only last year's winner, FSU's Jameis Winston (4/1). Mariota was nothing short of sensational in 2013, throwing for 3,665 yards with a 31/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also ran for 860 yards and nine TDs.

Mariota no longer has leading receiver Josh Huff or the versatile De'Anthony Thomas, but there are still plenty of weapons in Eugene. Byron Marshall and Thomas Tyner are explosive RBs who combined to rush for 1,749 and 23 TDs last year. Bralon Adddison returns after catching 61 balls for 890 yards and seven scores.

Oregon will get a huge challenge in a Week 2 non-conference showdown against Michigan St., which beat Stanford in last year's Rose Bowl. Sportsbook.ag has the Ducks installed as 14-point favorites in its Games of the Year section.

In other Games of the Year, Oregon is favored by 22.5 vs. Arizona, three at UCLA, 17 vs. Washington, 26.5 at California, 11.5 vs. Stanford and 15 at Oregon St. The Ducks, who have the third-shortest odds (+750, risk $100 to win $750) to win the national title, have a season win total of 10.5 that's shaded heavily to the 'over' (-200, 'under' yields +160 on the comeback).

Stanford is seeking its third consecutive conference title, but the odds aren't in its favor. The Cardinal has 12/1 odds, while UCLA and USC are at +275 and +475, respectively. David Shaw's program has won at least 11 games in four straight seasons, going 34-7 straight up and 24-15-2 against the spread in his three years since taking over for Jim Harbaugh.

Stanford returns five starters on offense and seven on defense. RB Tyler Gaffney is gone after rushing for 1,709 yards and 21 TDs in 2013, but there are high hopes for third-year sophomore Barry Sanders Jr. and junior Kelsey Young.

Junior QB Kevin Hogan has 19 career starts under his belt and has all of his top wideouts returning. Hogan completed 61 percent of his throws last season for 2,630 yards with a 20/10 TD-INT ratio. His favorite target is All-American candidate Ty Montgomery, who had 61 receptions for 958 yards and 10 TDs. Montgomery also had a pair of rushing scores and two TDs on special teams.

Like Auburn, which I noted in my SEC preview, Stanford has five daunting road assignments. The Cardinal face Washington, Notre Dame, Arizona St., Oregon and UCLA. The toughest home game will be against USC in Week 2.

If there's a team with the potential to overtake the Ducks and Cardinal in this division, it is Washington. The Huskies, who have 15/1 odds to win the Pac-12, have a season win total of nine ('under' -130, even money for the 'over').

I've considered Chris Petersen one of the nation's top-five coaches for several years, and now get to see what he can do at a school in a power conference. Petersen, who had an incredible 82-12 record during his eight-year tenure at Boise St., inherits a better-than-decent situation after new USC coach Steve Sarkisian did an excellent job of rebuilding the program after Ty Willingham's disastrous stretch at UW. Sarkisian took the Huskies to four consecutive bowl games after arriving in Seattle on the heels of a 0-12 campaign in 2008.

UW has to replace its two best players in QB Keith Price (three-year starter, second-leading passer in school history) and Bishop Sankey, who ran for 1,870 yards and 20 TDs last season. Cyler Miles was expected to be the starting QB, but he was suspended for spring practice and won't make the trip to Hawaii in Week 1. Miles was reportedly involved a post-Super Bowl assault.

Miles played in eight games, making one start, in 2013. He looked very sharp in relief of an injured Price during the third quarter of a loss at UCLA. Miles threw a pair of TDs and had UCLA backers like me worried about a backdoor cover until the Bruins pulled away in the final stanza. He rushed for 200 yards, averaging 8.7 yards per carry. Miles threw 61 passes and completed 37 for 418 yards, with a 4/2 TD-INT ratio.

Washington will most likely take a 4-0 record into a Sept. 27 home game against Stanford. In addition to Stanford, the Huskies get UCLA, Oregon St. and Arizona St. at home. They have to go on the road to face Oregon, Arizona and Washington St.

Oregon St. went 7-6 both SU and ATS last year. The Beavers have 65/1 odds to win the conference and their win total is 7.5 ('over' is even money, 'under' is -130). They return seven starters on both offense and defense.

Mike Riley's team has QB Sean Mannion back after an outstanding 2013 campaign. Mannion connected on 66.3 percent of his throws for 4,662 yards, with a 37/15 TD-INT ratio. However, the signal caller struggled mightily during a five-game losing streak to close the regular season. Manning started the year with a 29/3 TD-INT ratio, but those stats dropped to 8/12 in the last six contests. OSU did salvage the year by blasting Boise St. 38-24 at the Hawaii Bowl.

Mannion won't have All-American and first-round pick (by the Saints) Brandin Cooks anymore, but OSU has nearly all of its other WRs back in the fold. The defense returns its top six tacklers.

OSU gets Utah, Arizona St. and Oregon at home, but it will face tough road dates at USC, at Stanford and at Washington.

In his second season at the helm, Mike Leach took Washington St. to its first postseason game in a decade. Unfortunately the Cougars came up on the wrong side of a 48-45 decision to Colorado St. at the New Mexico Bowl. They finished 6-7 SU but hooked up their backers at a 9-4 ATS clip, including a 5-0 spread mark in road underdog situations.

Washington St. has a season win total of 5.5 ('over' -170, 'under' +130) and is a 22,500/1 longshot to win the Pac-12. The Cougars return eight starter on offense and six on defense.

QB Connor Halliday is back for his senior season and he has one of the nation's premier groups of WRs. Halliday threw for 4,597 yards in '13 with a 34/22 TD-INT ratio.

California endured a nightmare 2013 in Sonny Dykes's first season on campus. The Bears were an atrocious 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS, capturing their only win over Portland St. by a 37-30 count as 27.5-point favorites.

Cal was decimated by lop-sided defeats and 51 games were lost by starters to injuries. ThCae only bright spot from the year is that a bunch of young players got playing time. One of those was rising true sophomore QB Jared Goff, who threw for 3,508 yards with an 18/10 TD-INT ratio.

Goff is one of nine offensive starters returning. He has his top two WRs and leading rusher back as well. The defense return six starters, but five of them were their leading tacklers.

Cal has a pair of tough non-conference games, including a home date vs. BYU and road trip to Northwestern in Week 1. The Bears will face the Wildcats while their star RB Venric Mark is suspended.

In the Pac-12 South, UCLA is the team to beat. Jim Mora Jr.'s squad has won 19 games in his first two seasons, including a 10-3 SU record and a 9-4 ATS mark in 2013. The Bruins return nine starters on offense and eight on defense. They have a win total of 9.5 ('over' -130, 'under' even money).

Brett Hundley is a legit Heisman Trophy candidate in what will undoubtedly be his last year in college despite his status as a junior. Hundley, who has already burned his redshirt, could've gone pro already but Mora convinced him to stick around for one more season. Hundley had a 29/11 TD-INT ratio in 2012 and those numbers were 24/9 last year. He is extremely athletic and rushed for a team-high 748 yards and 11 TDs in '13.

RB Jordon James was off to a fast start before an ankle injury in early October basically ruined the rest of his season. He and Paul Perkins will split most of the rushing load, although we could certainly see more of LB Myles Jack on offense. With the RB group depleted by injuries last year, Mora started playing Jack both ways and he responded with authority. Jack rushed for 267 yards and seven TDs on only 38 totes, averaging 7.0 YPC.

Jack is an All-American candidate on defense, as is fellow LB Eric Kendricks, who had a team-high 106 stops last season. As a true freshman in '13, Jack had 75 tackles (six for loss), one sack, a pair of interceptions and 11 passes broken up.

UCLA opens the season at Virginia and will take on Texas in Arlington (where the Cowboys play) on Sept. 13. The Bruins get Oregon, Stanford, USC and Arizona at home. Their hardest road assignments come at Arizona St. and at Washington.

USC finished last season strong under interim head coach Ed Oregeron, who replaced Lane Kiffin following his dismissal in the wake of a 62-41 loss at Arizona St. The Trojans won six of their last seven games to finish 10-4, including a 45-20 win over Fresno St. at the Las Vegas Bowl.

Seven starters return for USC on each side of the ball. Sarkisian inherits junior QB Cody Kessler, who completed 65.4 percent of his passes for 2,968 yards, with a 20/7 TD-INT ratio. Kessler won't have the services of WR Marquise Lee any longer, but he has one of the country's top wideouts in Nelson Agholor, who snared 56 balls for 918 yards and six scores last season.

USC gave up only 21.2 PPG in '13 and the defense has its top three tacklers back. This unit has two All-American candidates in DT Leonard Williams (6 sacks LY) and safety Su'a Cravens, who had four interceptions while garnering first-team Freshman All-American honors. LB Hayes Pullard was a first-team All Pac-12 selection last year and senior Josh Shaw is one of the league's best cover corners.

Arizona and Arizona St. will probably be the next-best team in the South, but I believe both teams are clearly a notch below the Bruins and Trojans. The Wildcats lost big-time talent with the departures of RB Ka'Deem Carey and QB B.J. Denker. Meanwhile, the Sun Devils have only two defensive starters returning.

Rich Rodriguez has taken Arizona to back-to-back bowl games in his first two years on the job. UA trashed Boston College 42-19 in last year's AdvoCare V100 Bowl, easily hooking up its backers as a seven-point 'chalk.'

UA brings back seven starters on offense and six on defense. A trio of transfers and redshirt freshman Anu Solomon are competing for the starting QB job, but USC transfer Jesse Scroggins and Solomon appear to be the the top candidates.

Tra'Mayne Bondurant was expected to lead a secondary that's one of the Pac-12's best. The senior safety, who had 72 tackles, four interceptions, two sacks, five tackles for loss and five passes broken up, has been suspended and briefly left the team two weekends ago. He is back on the team now and trying to dig his way out of R-Rod's doghouse.

Arizona has a win total of 6.5 flat (-115 either way) and its odds to win the conference are 33/1. The Wildcats will be favored in their first four games and should go to Eugene on a Thursday night with a 4-0 record.

Arizona St. should have another prolific offense, returning six starters, including QB Taylor Kelly and two dynamic weapons in WR Jaelen Strong and RB D.J. Foster. The Sun Devils averaged 39.7 PPG in '13 thanks to Kelly's 28/12 TD-INT ratio. He completed 62.4 percent of his passes for 3,625 yards. Kelly makes plays with his legs too, rushing for 608 yards and nine TDs.

Strong was a first-team All Pac-12 selection with 75 catches for 1,122 yards and seven TDs. Foster had 63 receptions for 653 yards and four TDs. He rushed for 501 yards and six scores, averaging 5.4 YPC.

ASU has 18/1 odds to win the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Sun Devils have a win total of 7.5 flat. They get open dates before home games against UCLA and Stanford.

Utah has a win total of 4.5 shaded to the 'over' at a -185 price (+145 for the 'under'). It is a 55/1 longshot to win the conference title.

After going 8-5 in 2011, its first season in the Pac-12, Kyle Whittingham's team has gone 5-7 and missed out on the postseason in back-to-back years. The Utes return six starters on each side of the ball. They have five difficult road games at Michigan, at UCLA, at Oregon St., at Arizona St. and Stanford.

Colorado went 4-8 SU and 7-5 ATS in its first season under Mike MacIntyre. CU bring back eight starters on both offense and defense, but the team's best player, WR Paul Richardson, has move on to the NFL.

Rising sophomore QB Sefo Liufau got seven starts last year, throwing 12 TD passes compared to eight interceptions. If he and a defense that gave up 38.3 PPG last season improve, the Buffs will have a good shot in their three non-conference games (vs. Colorado St. in Denver, at UMass and vs. Hawaii), in addition to league games at Cal, vs. Oregon St. and vs. Utah.

**Fearless Predictions**

2014 Win-Loss Projections

School Record Win Total (5Dimes) Bowl Projection

South Division

UCLA 11-2 9.5 Fiesta Bowl vs. TBD

USC 9-3 8.5 Holiday Bowl vs. Big Ten

Arizona 8-4 6.5 Buffalo Wild Wings vs. Big 12

Arizona State 7-5 7.5 Las Vegas Bowl vs. Mtn. West

Utah 5-7 4.5 -

Colorado 3-9 - -


North Division

Oregon 10-3 10.5 Cotton Bowl vs. Big-12 runner-up

Washington 9-3 9 Alamo Bowl vs. Big 12

Stanford 8-4 8.5 Sun Bowl vs. ACC

Oregon State 8-4 7.5 Fight Hunger vs. Big 10

Washington State 6-6 5.5 At-Large Bowl

California 2-10 - -


**Games to Watch**

1. Oregon at UCLA - UCLA has lost five in a row to Oregon. In Eugene last season, the game was tied at halftime, but the Ducks dominated the last 30 minutes en route to an easy victory.

2. Stanford at UCLA - I always give the home team a slight advantage when a game is played on a short week. This will be a Friday game with Stanford losing a day of preparation to travel. The spot is better for the Cardinal, however, in that it will be coming off an open date, a home game vs. Utah and a cross-town road game at Cal in the three previous week. On the flip side, UCLA will be off a crucial division game against arch-rival USC.

3. Stanford at Oregon - Stanford will be playing its fourth road game in six weeks. Oregon will be in double-revenge mode after losing back-to-back contests to the Cardinal.

4. UCLA at Washington - This will be the seventh game in seven weeks for the Bruins and their third road game in four weeks. UW should cruise past CU in Boulder the previous weekend. A Huskies' win could help USC's chances and keep UW in its own division race.

5. Oregon at Oregon State - You never know what's going to happen in this rivalry game. The Beavers nearly pulled a major upset in a 36-35 loss as 23-point underdogs last season. This could be a big spoiler game for the Beavers in Corvallis.

**Players to Watch**

1-Brett Hundley (UCLA QB) - Does Hundley have the greatness it will take to get UCLA to the Final Four? I think he does.

2-Marcus Mariota (Oregon QB) - If he can duplicate his 2013 numbers, Mariota will be a top-five Heisman candidate and the Ducks will be Final Four candidates in November.

3-Ty Montgomery (Stanford WR) - With a lot of talent and experience gone from the o-line and the defense's front seven, Stanford's offense is going to need a lot of big plays. Montgomery can provide those.

4-Taylor Kelly and Jaelen Strong (Arizona St. QB & WR) - The Sun Devils are going to need to outscore a lot of foes. Kelly and Strong need to stay healthy and produce TDs galore.

5-Hau'oli Kikaha (Washington DE) -- He was second in the Pac-12 in sacks last year with 13. Kikaha is the leader of a Huskies' defensive line that might be the league's best.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Oregon OT Tyler Johnstone is out for the season with a torn ACL. The junior was a first-team Freshman All-America in 2012 and a second-team All Pac-12 selection last year.

-- Since 2009, Oregon St. owns a 17-5 spread record in 22 games as a road underdog. The Beavers have gone 7-0 ATS in such spots the last two years.

-- Oregon is 11-2-1 ATS in its last 14 games as a road favorite.

-- Washington St. has a 10-3 ATS record in its last 13 games as a double-digit underdog on Leach's watch.

-- UCLA starting OT Simon Goines is going to miss at least the team's first two games with an injury.

 

[CNOTES]

Team to Watch - Marshall

August 13, 2014

Call it Tulane 1998 redux.

We're talking about the prospects for the Marshall Thundering Herd (2013 - 10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS) becoming the first Conference USA team to run the table since the 1998 version of the Green Wave.

You remember that Tulane team, right?

Tommy Bowden was in his second year as head coach. Almost all of the key players from the Green Wave's 7-4 1997 team returned, the schedule didn't appear to be demanding, and no team had a clue how to stop offensive coordinator Rich Rodriguez's newfangled offense, known today as the spread. In quarterback Shaun King, Bowden and Rodriguez had the perfect triggerman for their electrified attack. By midseason, it was readily apparent that Bowden was going to be targeted by a higher-profile school; Clemson was already laying the groundwork to lure Bowden to Death Valley. But the Wave avoided any potential distractions and kept winning and winning, with no foe ever closer than six points.

By the time the season concluded, the only other undefeated team left standing was BCS champ Tennessee. But there was no real clamor for the Wave to appear in the title game, or even into the BCS (then it its first season of existence) for one of its other bowls, because the '98 schedule was so undemanding.

By the time it came to face BYU in the Liberty Bowl, Bowden was already gone to Clemson, and the Wave had planted the seeds for a return to mediocrity when bypassing Rodriguez as the successor, instead opting for Chris Scelfo. With King at the controls, Tulane had no trouble with BYU in the bowl, winning 41-27, but the comet-like Wave quickly disappeared from view in 1999, dropping to 3-8.

(Note: the Herd is not unfamiliar with unbeaten seasons either, having recorded a 13-0 mark in 1999 shortly after its transition from the old D-IAA ranks to the MAC. But for C-USA purposes, the comparisons to the unbeaten Tommy Bowden Green Wave edition seem more appropriate).

The parallels between Tulane 1998 and Marshall 2014 are apparent, and similar enough that valid comparisons are already being drawn. That Bowden Green Wave team represented C-USA's best chance to get involved in the 16-season run of the BCS, but unlike 1998, now there is a designated path for the league champ to qualify for a spot in the "New Year's Six" that is the de facto successor to the BCS. An invitation to the College Football Playoff remains very remote, but a spot is being reserved from among the highest-ranked C-USA, Mountain West, American, MAC, and Sun Belt rep for an invitation to the one of the "NY6" bowls. And, at this stage, the Herd would be the consensus pick among that group to receive the invite.

Of course, they have to play the season first, but all systems look go in Huntington for head coach Doc Holliday, a recruiter extraordinaire now entering his fifth season as coach. The breakthrough occurred last season when Marshall won 10 games for the first time since 2002, topping off the fun with a comfy 31-20 win over Maryland in the Military Bowl. While Holliday lost some important pieces from last year's puzzle, enough key elements remain to suggest running the table is not a far-fetched notion this fall.

The Herd put a hurtin' on plenty of foes last season, cracking the 50-point barrier on five different occasions, and senior triggerman Rakeem Cato is back for one more go in 2014. Cato completed 60% of his passes a year ago, good for a whopping 3916 yards and 39 TDs, with just nine picks. Over the past two seasons, Cato has tossed 76 TD passes and now has over 10,000 passing yards in his career. Cato is also an experienced detonator of offensive coordinator Bill Legg's hurry-up offense that has produced better than 500 yards per game the past two years (last season good for 12th in the country).

C-USA sources say that Cato, who has spent most of the past three years throwing short-to-intermediate passes, worked on his deep ball in the spring, and the chance to stretch enemy defenses even further is a frightening thought for Marshall foes. Slot receiver Tommy Shuler has been able to benefit from the short stuff and has caught at least 100 passes in each of the past two seasons. The Herd will have to replace big-play TE Gator Hoskins (Miami Dolphins camp), who caught 15 TD passes a year ago, though sr. Eric Frohnapfel suggested in spring that he could fit the bill. The possible breakthrough threat will be jr. WR Davonte Allen, a speedburner who has gained almost 18 yards per catch in limited work the past two seasons but hinted at much bigger things (and the deep threat Cato needs) in spring. Regional sources insist that if Allen becomes the legit deep threat that Marshall lacked last season, the Herd could even better last year's 42.1 ppg (ranking 7th nationally).

There are no worries regarding an offensive line that returns three starters, and replacing graduated top rusher Essray Taliaferro should be handled easily by committee, as coast-to-coast junior Steward Butler gained 8.8 ypc in 2013, and Kevin Grooms has gained over 1,200 YR the past two seasons. All each have lacked is the chance to carry the ball more often, which should not be a problem this fall for an infantry that gained almost 206 ypg a year ago.

We also mention the name of Chuck Heater, a onetime featured RB for Bo Schembechler's early '70s powerhouses at Michigan and eventually a coach of some repute. Bo would be proud his former student, who burnished his legacy when arriving in Huntington last season to fix what was one of the leakiest defenses in the country in 2012. Heater's upgrades were noteworthy, if not breathtaking, as the Herd ranked in the top quartile nationally of some important defensive stats while allowing a very respectable 22.9 ppg (32nd nationally), a number better than it looks considering the fast pace of Marshall's games, and almost cutting in half the whopping point allowance (43.1 ppg!) from 2012. Statistically, no "D" improved as much in the nation from the previous season.

Heater's 4-2-5 requires active linebackers, and the top three tacklers from last season all played at the position and return this fall, with Jermaine Holmes and Evan McKelvey likely to be on the field the most. A key adjustment to watch is jr. D.J. Hunter, who struggled at times as a strong safety last season and is moving to a strongside LB slot (where he was a Frosh A-A two years ago). Last year's nickel back, Conference USA co-Frosh of the Year Corey Tindale, is slated to start at a CB spot this fall. Impactful DT tackle James Rouse has also been granted a sixth year of eligibility and returns after earning All-C-USA honors last fall.

Further fueling the optimism is what looks like a forgiving schedule, with an opening game at Miami-Ohio against a RedHawks team that was 0-12 last season and lost 52-14 to the Herd. The only significant non-league challenge will likely be vs. Frank Solich's Ohio Bobcats, who scored a mild 34-31 upset in Athens last season; they make the relatively short trip to Huntington on September 13. Rice, Marshall's conqueror in the C-USA title game last December, also must visit Edwards Stadium on November 15.

As long as Cato doesn't get hurt, the Herd figures to be a substantial favorite in every game it plays until the bowls. And unlike Tulane 16 years ago, there is a path for Marshall to get a major bowl invitation.

Let the comparisons to the 1998 Green Wave begin.

 

[CNOTES]

September Situations

August 14, 2014

Here are five college matchups per week as potential play-on or against situations for the first month of the upcoming college football season. These are situations that could potentially be favorable based mainly on scheduling situations and the series history. Please keep in mind that these predictions are Against the Spread, made well in advance with an estimated pointspread in mind. Through the course of the season many factors could strengthen, weaken or even reverse the prediction. The predictions are split into five different categories based on different types of situations.

Weekend of August 30

Revenge Spot - Michigan over Appalachian State: Back in 2007, Appalachian State famously upset Michigan, 34-32 to open the season, but that was a team coming off back-to-back FCS championships. The program is not in as strong form currently despite making the leap to the FBS level. Michigan has covered in four of the last five openers and the Wolverines will not overlook the Mountaineers.

Road Trip - South Carolina over Texas A&M: The Gamecocks are accustomed to being in the opening weekend spotlight and this will be a tough first road game in the post-Johnny Manziel era for Texas A&M in the first meeting between these programs. The Aggies were 0-4 ATS on the road last season, allowing 133 points in four games and South Carolina has not lost its opener since 1999.

Historically Speaking - Florida State over Oklahoma State: The Seminoles may not yet be too overvalued in what could be a historic season with nearly everyone back from last year’s title team. OSU has a lot of holes to fill and this matchup may not live up to the billing. Florida State is on a 12-3-1 ATS run in neutral site games and they will not disappoint on the big stage.

Look-Ahead - Navy over Ohio State: The Buckeyes have a big game with Virginia Tech on deck and this opener in Baltimore could be a challenge given Navy’s relentless rushing attack. Navy has been a remarkable underdog, going 42-22-2 ATS since 2002 with even better numbers the higher the spread gets. Ohio State is 0-3 S/U and ATS in the three seasons in neutral site games.

Letdown - USC over Fresno State: After a remarkable 11-2 season, it could be a tough debut for Fresno State, replacing Derek Carr. The Bulldogs lost by 25 against USC in bowl action as just a +6 underdog in Las Vegas last December as these teams will play consecutive games. That might normally be a tough spot for the favorite, but with the dawn of the Sarkisian era focus should be high.

Weekend of September 6

Revenge Spot - Texas over BYU: Texas was considered a national title contender early last season until getting blasted at BYU in the second game of the season, allowing 679 yards in a 40-21 loss. Even with a new coaching staff and with UCLA next, this will be a huge game for the Longhorns who have plenty of talent to work with. This is also a second straight long road trip for BYU.

Road Trip - Massachusetts over Colorado: The Buffaloes have just two road wins the past six seasons, so one should be hesitant to lay points on the road here in technically a second straight away game with Colorado across the country. UMass has taken some beatings the past two years in the move to the FBS level, but the Minutemen have held their own ATS at home and this team has some experience.

Historically Speaking - Oklahoma over Tulsa: Tulsa beat Oklahoma in 1996, but there have been seven blowouts in the series since with only one missed cover for the Sooners despite some steep lines. Playing on the road should keep this spread from climbing too high and the Sooners are 9-3 ATS in non-conference games the last three seasons. Last year’s 51-20 margin could have been worse.

Look-Ahead - Arkansas State over Tennessee: This is one of the few soft spots in a very tough 2014 schedule for Tennessee and with Oklahoma on deck and this game following up a Sunday TV game, it may be a challenging early spot for a Vols team with limited experience. Arkansas State has a new coach for fourth straight season but the Red Wolves are 7-3 ATS as a road underdog in that span.

Letdown - Memphis over UCLA: The Tigers could be a big climber this season with a veteran team that was much more competitive than last season’s 3-9 record. Beating a Pac-12 contender is unlikely, but this game is sandwiched in between high profile games for the Bruins and playing with less focus a week after cross-country travel could leave the team a bit fatigued and vulnerable.

Weekend of September 13

Revenge Spot - Louisiana Tech over North Texas: The Mean Green were out-gained in a 28-13 win in Ruston last season, just the second win in eight games in this series for North Texas. After big games with bigger Texas schools to open the season, this will not be an ideal spot for the host especially on a short week and while this is a third straight road game for the Bulldogs the travel is not substantial.

Road Trip - Marshall over Ohio: Ohio has won the last three meetings in this series, but this will be a challenging spot with the Bobcats opening with three consecutive road games. Marshall has a great shot to go undefeated in 2014 and they may not face too hefty of a spread this early in the season. Turnovers were the difference last season for the Herd and they should pull away.

Historically Speaking - West Virginia over Maryland: The Terrapins won 37-0 in this matchup last season, but that snapped a seven-game win streak for the Mountaineers. Maryland could be very competitive this season, but they are on an 23-36 ATS run at home since 2004. Value could be with the Mountaineers if they lose badly in the opener vs. Alabama, which seems likely.

Look-Ahead - Bowling Green over Indiana: The Falcons are in a coaching transition, but the 2013 MAC champions should remain competitive. Last season, Bowling Green lost just four games with the lone ugly showing being a 42-10 loss in Bloomington. Getting to host a B1G team will provide great motivation and IU is 2-13 S/U on the road under Kevin Wilson. The Hoosiers also have Missouri next.

Letdown - East Carolina over Virginia Tech: The Hokies have lost several early season games in recent years and they barely slipped by ECU last season, winning 15-10. After a huge national game with Ohio State in Week 2, this will be a tough follow-up test and it will be a huge game for the Pirates who beat North Carolina last season on the road. A Week 2 loss to South Carolina could also bring value.

Weekend of September 20

Revenge Spot - North Carolina over East Carolina: The Tar Heels expect to be a serious contender in the ACC this season and after a 55-31 loss in Chapel Hill last season, the Pirates have their attention. After playing South Carolina and Virginia Tech the previous two weeks, East Carolina could be out of gas against a rested UNC squad playing in this revenge spot.

Road Trip - Michigan State over Eastern Michigan: The challenge at Eastern Michigan will be great for first year head coach Chris Creighton with this being the third consecutive road game for the Eagles and a daunting test in East Lansing. The Spartans have not been great in the heavy favorite role, but if they enter this game off a loss to Oregon, they may aim to pour it on to get back on track.

Historically Speaking - LSU over Mississippi State: The Tigers are 21-1 S/U and 18-4 ATS in this series since 1992. This will be a second straight road game for the Bulldogs and even when they play well against LSU, they seem to find ways to miss the cover. Last season, Mississippi State had 468 yards against LSU but still lost 59-26 at home.

Look-Ahead - Northern Illinois over Arkansas: This is a challenging scheduling spot for the Huskies, but they will embrace the opportunity to face a major conference foe. The Huskies have experience against a Bret Bielema offense facing Wisconsin in 2011 and this could be a tricky spot for the Razorbacks with this game in between bigger games with Texas Tech and Texas A&M.

Letdown - San Jose State over Minnesota: The Spartans out-gained Minnesota in a misleading 43-24 loss in Minneapolis last season and this could be a tough spot for the Gophers as a big game at TCU is the week before and the B1G opener with Michigan is on deck. Minnesota should start the season 2-0 before the TCU game which could be a rude awakening for a team that may have overachieved in ‘13.

Weekend of September 27

Revenge Spot - Missouri over South Carolina: The only regular season loss for Missouri came against South Carolina last season, losing 27-24 in a game where quarterback James Franklin was injured. South Carolina has a chance to be a very impressive 4-0 at this point in the season with early season home dates against Texas A&M and Georgia and value could be with the underdog.

Road Trip - Toledo over Central Michigan: This will be the third road game in four weeks for Central Michigan and the first MAC game after playing three straight major conference teams. A tired team could head to Toledo in a second straight road game and the Rockets have impressive numbers at home, going 10-2 S/U under Matt Campbell in two years.

Historically Speaking - N.C. State over Florida State: The Wolfpack have covered in 11 of the last 13 meetings with Florida State including four straight home meetings. N.C. State will surely be a home underdog in this matchup and Florida State will enter this game coming off a much bigger game with Clemson. N.C. State has a light early schedule and could build some confidence to keep close.

Look-Ahead - Iowa State over Baylor: The Cyclones lost 71-7 in Waco last season, so this will be a game the Bears can feel comfortable overlooking. Iowa State might be 1-2 or worse at this point in the season with tough games early, but they have two weeks to prepare for this game. Baylor should be 3-0 and a heavy favorite, but its attention could waver with a much bigger game with Texas next.

Letdown - UTEP over Kansas State: The Wildcats play Auburn the week before this game in a big Thursday night showdown and with the rest of the Big XII schedule following, this will be an overlooked game on the schedule. Kansas State has lost a game S/U as a heavy favorite each of the last two years and UTEP could be an improved team with some depth and experience after an ugly 2013 season.

 

[CNOTES]

Win Total Update

August 13, 2014

The 2014 pro baseball regular season is coming to a close as teams enter the final quarter of the 162-game season. Before the season began the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino SuperBook (LVH) posted win totals for all 30 teams.

Prior to the All-Star break in late June, we looked at the win totals and forecasted the pace for every team in the majors. To figure out a team’s pace, you take their win percentage and multiply by 162. (Ex. Baltimore Orioles are on pace to win 93 games (162 x .576) based on their record as of Aug. 13)

In the below table, we looked at the latest projections and you can see that certain teams have turned up the heat in the past six weeks while other clubs have melted away in the summer.

In late June, the Giants and Brewers were on a torrid pace to win close to 100 games. As of mid-August, San Francisco is projected to win 84 games while Milwaukee is on pace for 89 victories.

Other clubs that have struggled in the second-half are the Rockies and Rangers, who are both on pace to have more than 90 losses.

Even though San Diego and Tampa Bay won’t be playing in the playoffs this October, the two teams have been very competitive in the second-half.

The Padres were projected to go ‘under’ their win total of 78 ½ at the midway point and now they’re on pace to win 77 games, which gives some win total bettors a chance. Despite the Rays’ second-half surge, they’ll likely go ‘under’ their season win total (87 ½).

Contenders that have picked up the pace the past eight weeks include Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Oakland.

Listed below are the win totals from the LVH, plus projections for each team from the midway point (6/23/14) and as of Aug. 13, 2014.

National League Win Totals

Team Win Total All-Star Pace Current Pace Projected Result

Arizona 80 65 70

Atlanta 88 82 82

Chicago Cubs 68.5 68 70

Cincinnati 84 81 82

Colorado 75.5 73 63

L.A. Dodgers 93.5 88 92

Miami 69 79 80

Milwaukee 79.5 98 89

N.Y. Mets 73.5 74 77

Philadelphia 76.5 74 72

Pittsburgh 84.5 80 87

San Diego 78.5 68 77

San Francisco 85.5 97 84

St. Louis 91.5 87 85

Washington 88.5 85 89

Projected Result Key: Over Under Even


American League Win Totals

Team Win Total All-Star Pace Current Pace Projected

Baltimore 80 85 93

Boston 87.5 74 73

Chicago White Sox 76.5 74 77

Cleveland 80.5 79 81

Detroit 89.5 90 87

Houston 62.5 69 68

Kansas City 82 84 88

LA Angels 88 89 95

Minnesota 70.5 79 73

NY Yankees 86.5 85 84

Oakland 89.5 100 99

Seattle 80 85 87

Tampa Bay 87.5 65 79

Texas 87 75 64

Toronto 79.5 88 84

Projected Result Key: Over Under Even

 

[CNOTES]

Who's Not Hot - NL

August 14, 2014

The National League isn't nearly as polarizing as the American League is for baseball betting fans. However, there are still some clubs that are sucking money out of your wallets left and right that should be remembered before placing a bet on the diamond.

We'll showcase the three worst that the NL has to offer here at VegasInsider.com.

Colorado Rockies (46-73, -$2,667) – The Rockies had everything rolling at the beginning of the season, and there was even a point back in April when they had the best money mark in the game. However, they haven't been able to keep either shortstop Troy Tulowitzki or outfielder Carlos Gonzalez healthy this entire year, and they simply don't have all that much of a team aside from that.
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The most embarrassing moment of the year might have come when they gave up a steal of home plate last week because catcher Michael McKenry was literally just too lazy to pay attention to the runner on third base when he lobbed the ball back to the pitcher's mound. The upcoming Broncos season can't start soon enough for Denver sports fans.

Arizona Diamondbacks (51-67, -$1,490) – Worse for Colorado? That steal of home came against an Arizona team which has completely given up on the season as well. The Diamondbacks made a number of relatively minor moves at the trade deadline that did net them some prospects in exchange for men like Martin Prado and Brandon McCarthy who really weren't going to be a part of the team in the long-term future either. It wasn't a complete washout.

Arizona has at least competed in the second-half of the year, and on the road, the team is 26-28 and +$252. It's playing at Chase Field that has been so brutal for the Diamondbacks. They started off the year in horrid form at home, and that just hasn't gotten any better. Arizona is 25-39 and -$1,742 at Chase Field this year.

Atlanta Braves (60-59, -$1,013) – The argument could be made that manager Fredi Gonzalez should have his job on the line if the Braves don't make the playoffs this year. They really haven't had a team with a legit shot at winning the World Series since he took over. Sure, losing RHP Kris Medlen and RHP Brandon Beachy before the season started to Tommy John surgery didn't help the cause, but this isn't a .500 team.

This is a club which should be winning at least 88-90 games and winning, at minimum, a Wild Card slot. Instead, Atlanta finds itself five games back of the Washington Nationals for the top spot in the NL East and 2 ½ games back of the St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants for that last Wild Card spot. If Atlanta keeps faltering like this, both the Miami Marlins and the New York Mets could plausibly catch up, and if this team finishes fourth, there might not be any reprieve for Gonzalez, nor should there be.

 

[CNOTES]

College football playoff selection committee announces policy

The College Football Playoff selection committee announced that nine of its 13 members have been recused from voting for certain schools.

Mike Gould (Air Force); Jeff Long (Arkansas); Dan Radakovich (Clemson); Archie Manning (Mississippi); Tom Osborne (Nebraska); Pat Haden (USC); Condoleezza Rice (Stanford); Oliver Luck (West Virginia); and Barry Alvarez (Wisconsin) were recused.

Five of the members are current athletic directors, including Long (the committee chair), Radakovich, Haden, Luck and Alvarez. Rice is a professor at Stanford and Gould is the former superintendent of the Air Force Academy.

Committee member Tyrone Willingham was not on the recusal list, despite formerly coaching Washington, Notre Dame and Stanford. The committee's executive director, Bill Hancock, said Willingham was not on the list because he is not currently associated with either of the schools.

"If you look at the recusal policy, he's not compensated by any school," Hancock said. "He doesn't have any relatives who are compensated by a school, nor does he provide professional services to a school."

Recused committee members are only allowed to answer factual questions about their respective school affiliations, but are not allowed in the meeting room during any deliberations about that team's selection or seeding.

The selection committee will rank 25 teams throughout the season. They will select the four playoff teams, which includes placing them in the contract bowls (Rose, Orange and Sugar) and finishing with the Cotton, Fiesta and Peach bowls.

The Rose and Sugar bowls are this season's playoff semifinals.

The committee will determine the top 25 by going through seven rounds of ballots, not including a possible re-vote if at least three committee members believe another group of teams should be considered. Individual ballots, which will not be made public this season, will be compiled into a composite ranking.

"We looked at previous years, and there was spirited debate," Hancock said. "We really dived into some teams' resumes and compared them in a very extensive way."

Conference championships, strength of schedule, head-to-head competition, comparative outcomes of common opponents and key injuries are among the factors the committee will consider when deciding on the four playoff teams.

The committee's first playoff rankings will be announced on Oct. 28.