Top 20 QB Changes
July 15, 2014
The college football season is right around the corner and if you glance at the future odds to win this year’s College Football Playoff, you’ll see that the majority of contenders have one key factor in common, experience at the quarterback position.
A perfect example of this is Florida State, who is the oddsmakers top betting choice. The Seminoles will have Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston under center for another season. Winston also proves the notion that experience doesn’t matter since he was a newbie to the college game last season.
This fall, I’ve highlighted 20 schools that will be facing key quarterback changes and we very well could see one of the fresh faces win a title.
1) Alabama -- Jacob Coker replaces A.J. McCarron. Coker transferred to 'Bama after sitting behind E.J. Manuel and Jameis Winston at FSU. He has great size and moves well in the pocket, but he's only seen playing time in mop-up duty. Coker didn't arrive in Tuscaloosa until May, so he hasn't had much time to create chemistry with his teammates. But Coker doesn't have to be great. He's got an arsenal of weapons and just needs to limit his mistakes.
2) Georgia - Hutson Mason replaces Aaron Murray. Mason made a pair of starts after Murray tore his ACL late last season. The fifth-year senior sparked the Bulldogs to a comeback win at Ga. Tech after they trailed by 13 points at intermission. Mason looked sharp in the spring and has the confidence of Mark Richt and his staff. He'll get lots of help from a pair of elite RBs in Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall.
3) Notre Dame - Everett Golson replaces Tommy Rees. Brian Kelly's team went from the BCS Championship Game to the Pinstripe Bowl in its season without Golson, who was suspended for the 2013 campaign. As a starter in 2012, Golson went 10-1. The Irish will most likely get better QB play this season.
4) Clemson - Cole Stoudt or Deshaun Watson will replace Tajh Boyd. Stoudt, a senior, will probably get pushed by true freshman Watson for the job formerly held by Boyd, who shattered the school's record books with 11,904 career passing yards. OC Chad Morris will find a way to score points, but the Tigers aren't going to average 40-plus points per game like they have the last two years.
5) Arizona - Jesse Scroggins, Jerrard Randall or Connor Brewer will replace BJ Denker. A trio of transfers will compete for the job vacated by Denker, who produced 29 touchdowns last season. Scroggins (USC) appears to be the front-runner following an excellent spring, but he'll get pushed by Randall (juco via LSU) and Brewer (Texas).
6) LSU - Brandon Harris or Anthony Jennings will replace Zach Mettenberger. Harris and Jennings are athletic guys in the Jordan Jefferson mold. Both lack experience, though we should note that Jennings threw a game-winning TD pass at crunch time vs. Arkansas last season. Look for Les Miles to return to a heavy dose of the running game combined with tough defense in 2014. Incoming freshman RB Leonard Fournette should make life easier for the QBs.
7) South Carolina - Dylan Thompson replaces Connor Shaw. Shaw never lost a home game and had an incredible 24/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2013. He also ran for countless first downs with his legs. That said, Thompson has been in the fire before, lighting up Clemson for 310 yards and three TD passes without an interception on the road two seasons ago. He also threw the game-winning TD pass to beat Michigan to cap the 2012 campaign. Thompson, a fifth-year senior, finally has the job to himself, but will he be able to perform with the type of consistency that Shaw provided?
8) Texas A&M - Kenny Hill or Kyle Allen will replace Johnny Manziel. Most recruitniks considered Allen the best pro-style passer coming out of high school and the true freshman was in College Station for spring drills. As a true freshman last season, Hill saw limited playing time. Whoever wins the job will get his first career start at South Carolina on Aug. 28.
9) Fresno State - Brandon Connette replaces Derek Carr. Connette is a transfer from Duke who is a much different player than Carr, who had 50 TD passes in 2013 and is the Bulldogs' all-time leading passer. Connette has the size of a fullback and rushed for 14 TDs for the Blue Devils last year. He also had a 13/6 TD-INT ratio.
10) Virginia Tech - Michael Brewer replaces Logan Thomas. Brewer, a transfer from Texas Tech, didn't arrive in Blacksburg until May. Nevertheless, he appears to be the guy ahead of Mark Leal and trio of incoming freshmen. Thomas had an up-and-down career, but his play was inconsistent in 2012 and 2013. The Hokies return nine offensive starters so if they can get adequate QB play, they'll probably be fighting for a spot in the ACC title game with North Carolina.
11) Louisville - Will Gardner replaces Teddy Bridgewater. Gardner has huge shoes to fill, but he'll be learning from a fabulous QB tutor in new head coach Bobby Petrino, who had a 41-9 record in his previous four-year tenure at U of L. Gardner also has an elite WR (DaVante Parker) and a pair of excellent RBs (Dominique Brown and Michael Dyer).
12) Washington - Cyler Miles replaces Keith Price. Miles threw a pair of TD passes in relief of Price at UCLA last season. The following week, he helped the Huskies to a 69-27 win at Oregon St. The third-year sophomore has been reinstated by new coach Chris Petersen after serving a suspension during spring practice. Miles could be poised for a breakout campaign on a team that I feel is a true sleeper in the Pac-12.
13) Missouri - Maty Mauk replaces James Franklin. Mauk shined as a redshirt freshman, going 4-1 in five starts after Franklin got injured in a win at Georgia. He had an 11/2 TD-INT ratio, but his 51.1 completion percentage has to improve. Mauk won't have as many weapons at his disposal with three standout receivers no longer on the roster. But Mauk can make plays with his legs and has a pair of outstanding RBs in Russell Hansbrough and Marcus Murphy.
14) Miami - Kevin Olsen or Ryan Williams will replace Stephen Morris. With Williams dealing with an injury that's expected to keep him out until at least early October, the redshirt freshman Olsen will get the first crack at the job. Olsen, one of the nation's top signal callers in the 2013 class, will have to grow up fast with September road games at Louisville and at Nebraska. The presence of star RB Duke Johnson will help his cause.
15) North Carolina State - Jacoby Brissett replaces Pete Thomas and Brandon Mitchell. As a true freshman at Florida in 2011, Brissett took his first career snaps at top-ranked LSU in Death Valley when John Brantley and Jeff Driskel were injured. The results weren't pretty, but Brissett should have never been in that position. He lost the battle for the starting QB job to Driskel in 2012, and then decided to transfer to Raleigh. After sitting out the 2013 campaign, he appears to be the man for Dave Doeren. Brissett has good size and a big arm, but his accuracy and decision-making were major issues in Gainesville. He's had time to work on those problems, so we'll see where he's at in September.
16) Boston College - Tyler Murphy replaces Chase Rettig. Steve Addazio had a nice debut campaign at Boston College, riding workhorse RB Andre Williams to seven wins and BC's first bowl game since 2010. While on Urban Meyer's staff at Florida, Addazio recruited the northeast and was instrumental in the Gators' signing of Murphy. He never touched the field at UF until Driskel went down in Week 3 last year. Murphy led UF to wins over Tennessee, Kentucky and Arkansas before suffering a shoulder injury in a loss at LSU. He tried to play through the pain in losses to Missouri, Georgia and Vandy, but then the Gators shut him down for the season. With Driskel back in the mix, Murphy transferred to BC for a chance to start in 2014.
17) Pittsburgh - Chad Voytik replaces Tom Savage. The Panthers got excellent QB play from Savage, who had a 21/9 TD-INT ratio last season. Voytik only saw mop-up duty as a freshman, but he had a stellar prep career that drew interest from schools all across the country. He'll have all of his top rushers back and one of the ACC's best WRs in Tyler Boyd.
18) SMU - Neal Burcham replaces Garrett Gilbert. Burcham started a pair of games late last season after Gilbert was injured. His play was shaky, but he should be improved as a true sophomore. June Jones is never hesitant to play young QBs, so Burcham could get pushed by true frosh Darrell Colbert.
19) Cincinnati - Gunner Kiel replaces Brendon Kay. Kiel was the No. 1 ranked QB in the class of 2012 and was committed to LSU, only to change his mind on Signing Day. He eventually landed at Notre Dame, but things didn't work out in South Bend. Now he's poised to be Cincy's starter, but he could get pushed by Munchie Legaux (if he's healthy) and juco transfer Jarred Evans.
20) Central Florida - Justin Holman replaces Blake Bortles. Holman has huge shoes to fill after Bortles led UCF to a 12-1 season. He completed 9-of-14 throws at garbage time last season. Holman will have the Golden Knight's top three wideouts from 2013 to work with.
July 15, 2014
The college football season is right around the corner and if you glance at the future odds to win this year’s College Football Playoff, you’ll see that the majority of contenders have one key factor in common, experience at the quarterback position.
A perfect example of this is Florida State, who is the oddsmakers top betting choice. The Seminoles will have Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston under center for another season. Winston also proves the notion that experience doesn’t matter since he was a newbie to the college game last season.
This fall, I’ve highlighted 20 schools that will be facing key quarterback changes and we very well could see one of the fresh faces win a title.
1) Alabama -- Jacob Coker replaces A.J. McCarron. Coker transferred to 'Bama after sitting behind E.J. Manuel and Jameis Winston at FSU. He has great size and moves well in the pocket, but he's only seen playing time in mop-up duty. Coker didn't arrive in Tuscaloosa until May, so he hasn't had much time to create chemistry with his teammates. But Coker doesn't have to be great. He's got an arsenal of weapons and just needs to limit his mistakes.
2) Georgia - Hutson Mason replaces Aaron Murray. Mason made a pair of starts after Murray tore his ACL late last season. The fifth-year senior sparked the Bulldogs to a comeback win at Ga. Tech after they trailed by 13 points at intermission. Mason looked sharp in the spring and has the confidence of Mark Richt and his staff. He'll get lots of help from a pair of elite RBs in Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall.
3) Notre Dame - Everett Golson replaces Tommy Rees. Brian Kelly's team went from the BCS Championship Game to the Pinstripe Bowl in its season without Golson, who was suspended for the 2013 campaign. As a starter in 2012, Golson went 10-1. The Irish will most likely get better QB play this season.
4) Clemson - Cole Stoudt or Deshaun Watson will replace Tajh Boyd. Stoudt, a senior, will probably get pushed by true freshman Watson for the job formerly held by Boyd, who shattered the school's record books with 11,904 career passing yards. OC Chad Morris will find a way to score points, but the Tigers aren't going to average 40-plus points per game like they have the last two years.
5) Arizona - Jesse Scroggins, Jerrard Randall or Connor Brewer will replace BJ Denker. A trio of transfers will compete for the job vacated by Denker, who produced 29 touchdowns last season. Scroggins (USC) appears to be the front-runner following an excellent spring, but he'll get pushed by Randall (juco via LSU) and Brewer (Texas).
6) LSU - Brandon Harris or Anthony Jennings will replace Zach Mettenberger. Harris and Jennings are athletic guys in the Jordan Jefferson mold. Both lack experience, though we should note that Jennings threw a game-winning TD pass at crunch time vs. Arkansas last season. Look for Les Miles to return to a heavy dose of the running game combined with tough defense in 2014. Incoming freshman RB Leonard Fournette should make life easier for the QBs.
7) South Carolina - Dylan Thompson replaces Connor Shaw. Shaw never lost a home game and had an incredible 24/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2013. He also ran for countless first downs with his legs. That said, Thompson has been in the fire before, lighting up Clemson for 310 yards and three TD passes without an interception on the road two seasons ago. He also threw the game-winning TD pass to beat Michigan to cap the 2012 campaign. Thompson, a fifth-year senior, finally has the job to himself, but will he be able to perform with the type of consistency that Shaw provided?
8) Texas A&M - Kenny Hill or Kyle Allen will replace Johnny Manziel. Most recruitniks considered Allen the best pro-style passer coming out of high school and the true freshman was in College Station for spring drills. As a true freshman last season, Hill saw limited playing time. Whoever wins the job will get his first career start at South Carolina on Aug. 28.
9) Fresno State - Brandon Connette replaces Derek Carr. Connette is a transfer from Duke who is a much different player than Carr, who had 50 TD passes in 2013 and is the Bulldogs' all-time leading passer. Connette has the size of a fullback and rushed for 14 TDs for the Blue Devils last year. He also had a 13/6 TD-INT ratio.
10) Virginia Tech - Michael Brewer replaces Logan Thomas. Brewer, a transfer from Texas Tech, didn't arrive in Blacksburg until May. Nevertheless, he appears to be the guy ahead of Mark Leal and trio of incoming freshmen. Thomas had an up-and-down career, but his play was inconsistent in 2012 and 2013. The Hokies return nine offensive starters so if they can get adequate QB play, they'll probably be fighting for a spot in the ACC title game with North Carolina.
11) Louisville - Will Gardner replaces Teddy Bridgewater. Gardner has huge shoes to fill, but he'll be learning from a fabulous QB tutor in new head coach Bobby Petrino, who had a 41-9 record in his previous four-year tenure at U of L. Gardner also has an elite WR (DaVante Parker) and a pair of excellent RBs (Dominique Brown and Michael Dyer).
12) Washington - Cyler Miles replaces Keith Price. Miles threw a pair of TD passes in relief of Price at UCLA last season. The following week, he helped the Huskies to a 69-27 win at Oregon St. The third-year sophomore has been reinstated by new coach Chris Petersen after serving a suspension during spring practice. Miles could be poised for a breakout campaign on a team that I feel is a true sleeper in the Pac-12.
13) Missouri - Maty Mauk replaces James Franklin. Mauk shined as a redshirt freshman, going 4-1 in five starts after Franklin got injured in a win at Georgia. He had an 11/2 TD-INT ratio, but his 51.1 completion percentage has to improve. Mauk won't have as many weapons at his disposal with three standout receivers no longer on the roster. But Mauk can make plays with his legs and has a pair of outstanding RBs in Russell Hansbrough and Marcus Murphy.
14) Miami - Kevin Olsen or Ryan Williams will replace Stephen Morris. With Williams dealing with an injury that's expected to keep him out until at least early October, the redshirt freshman Olsen will get the first crack at the job. Olsen, one of the nation's top signal callers in the 2013 class, will have to grow up fast with September road games at Louisville and at Nebraska. The presence of star RB Duke Johnson will help his cause.
15) North Carolina State - Jacoby Brissett replaces Pete Thomas and Brandon Mitchell. As a true freshman at Florida in 2011, Brissett took his first career snaps at top-ranked LSU in Death Valley when John Brantley and Jeff Driskel were injured. The results weren't pretty, but Brissett should have never been in that position. He lost the battle for the starting QB job to Driskel in 2012, and then decided to transfer to Raleigh. After sitting out the 2013 campaign, he appears to be the man for Dave Doeren. Brissett has good size and a big arm, but his accuracy and decision-making were major issues in Gainesville. He's had time to work on those problems, so we'll see where he's at in September.
16) Boston College - Tyler Murphy replaces Chase Rettig. Steve Addazio had a nice debut campaign at Boston College, riding workhorse RB Andre Williams to seven wins and BC's first bowl game since 2010. While on Urban Meyer's staff at Florida, Addazio recruited the northeast and was instrumental in the Gators' signing of Murphy. He never touched the field at UF until Driskel went down in Week 3 last year. Murphy led UF to wins over Tennessee, Kentucky and Arkansas before suffering a shoulder injury in a loss at LSU. He tried to play through the pain in losses to Missouri, Georgia and Vandy, but then the Gators shut him down for the season. With Driskel back in the mix, Murphy transferred to BC for a chance to start in 2014.
17) Pittsburgh - Chad Voytik replaces Tom Savage. The Panthers got excellent QB play from Savage, who had a 21/9 TD-INT ratio last season. Voytik only saw mop-up duty as a freshman, but he had a stellar prep career that drew interest from schools all across the country. He'll have all of his top rushers back and one of the ACC's best WRs in Tyler Boyd.
18) SMU - Neal Burcham replaces Garrett Gilbert. Burcham started a pair of games late last season after Gilbert was injured. His play was shaky, but he should be improved as a true sophomore. June Jones is never hesitant to play young QBs, so Burcham could get pushed by true frosh Darrell Colbert.
19) Cincinnati - Gunner Kiel replaces Brendon Kay. Kiel was the No. 1 ranked QB in the class of 2012 and was committed to LSU, only to change his mind on Signing Day. He eventually landed at Notre Dame, but things didn't work out in South Bend. Now he's poised to be Cincy's starter, but he could get pushed by Munchie Legaux (if he's healthy) and juco transfer Jarred Evans.
20) Central Florida - Justin Holman replaces Blake Bortles. Holman has huge shoes to fill after Bortles led UCF to a 12-1 season. He completed 9-of-14 throws at garbage time last season. Holman will have the Golden Knight's top three wideouts from 2013 to work with.
Armadillo: Friday's six-pack
Some college football coaches who have the best ATS records at home (numbers are from Marc Lawrence playbook):
-- Bobby Hauck, UNLV 17-6, .739
-- Art Briles, Baylor, 23-10, .697
-- Jerry Kill, Minnesota 12-6, .667
-- Bill Snyder, Kansas State 77-41, .653
-- David Bailiff, Rice .615
-- Steve Spurrier, South Carolina 33-21, .611
Some college football coaches who have the best ATS records at home (numbers are from Marc Lawrence playbook):
-- Bobby Hauck, UNLV 17-6, .739
-- Art Briles, Baylor, 23-10, .697
-- Jerry Kill, Minnesota 12-6, .667
-- Bill Snyder, Kansas State 77-41, .653
-- David Bailiff, Rice .615
-- Steve Spurrier, South Carolina 33-21, .611
Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack
Odds to win the college football national championship.......
4-1-- Florida State-- They've still got a pretty good QB.
6-1-- Oregon-Alabama-Oklahoma
7-1-- Ohio State-- Not much competition in their league.
9-1-- Auburn-- QB Marshall better stay off the weed.
10-1-- UCLA- Veteran QB, NFL head coach; my choice to win it all.
15-1-- LSU-- Like most of SEC, have a new QB this year.
**********
Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: College football trends to ponder......
13) South Carolina covered its last five games with rival Clemson.
12) New Mexico covered its last 11 games with San Diego State.
11) Arizona State covered its last eight games with Washington Huskies.
10) Western Michigan covered its last six weeknight games.
9) Arizona covered seven of its last nine games with USC, but they're 0-5 vs spread in game following a SU upset win.
8) Kentucky covered twice in its last 12 visits to Tennessee.
7) Pitt Panthers covered last six games as a double digit favorite.
6) Boston College is 0-11 vs spread in last 11 games as road favorites of 4+ points.
5) UCLA covered once in its last eight visits to California.
4) Navy covered 10 of its last 13 games with rival Air Force.
3) Wisconsin covered its last eight games with Purdue.
2) UConn covered 18 of its last 22 tries as a home underdog.
1) Michigan State covered its last six games with Michigan, but Ohio State covered its last four visits to East Lansing.
Odds to win the college football national championship.......
4-1-- Florida State-- They've still got a pretty good QB.
6-1-- Oregon-Alabama-Oklahoma
7-1-- Ohio State-- Not much competition in their league.
9-1-- Auburn-- QB Marshall better stay off the weed.
10-1-- UCLA- Veteran QB, NFL head coach; my choice to win it all.
15-1-- LSU-- Like most of SEC, have a new QB this year.
**********
Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: College football trends to ponder......
13) South Carolina covered its last five games with rival Clemson.
12) New Mexico covered its last 11 games with San Diego State.
11) Arizona State covered its last eight games with Washington Huskies.
10) Western Michigan covered its last six weeknight games.
9) Arizona covered seven of its last nine games with USC, but they're 0-5 vs spread in game following a SU upset win.
8) Kentucky covered twice in its last 12 visits to Tennessee.
7) Pitt Panthers covered last six games as a double digit favorite.
6) Boston College is 0-11 vs spread in last 11 games as road favorites of 4+ points.
5) UCLA covered once in its last eight visits to California.
4) Navy covered 10 of its last 13 games with rival Air Force.
3) Wisconsin covered its last eight games with Purdue.
2) UConn covered 18 of its last 22 tries as a home underdog.
1) Michigan State covered its last six games with Michigan, but Ohio State covered its last four visits to East Lansing.
Sun Belt college football betting preview: Little league holds big value
The Sun Belt looks like a four-team race for the title, but that means there’s big betting value outside of those contenders in college football’s tiniest conference.
UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (2013: 9-4 SU, 5-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +110
Season win total: 9
Why bet the Ragin’ Cajuns: UL Lafayette is the best team on paper in the Sun Belt coming into the 2014 season. The Ragin’ Cajuns return 17 starters, including quarterback Terrance Broadway, who put up big numbers last season. The offense will be potent once again after averaging 33.8 points per game in 2013. Their defense improved last season and they will move forward once again.
Why not bet the Ragin’ Cajuns: Despite returning 17 starters, UL Lafayette's best playmaker - Darryl Surgent - graduated. Surgent was a solid receiver and an exceptional return man, giving the Ragin’ Cajuns consistent good field position. Losing one skill guy shouldn’t be an issue, but Surgent was a difference maker and ULL will miss his presence.
Season win total pick: Over 9
South Alabama Jaguars (2013: 6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +320
Season win total: 8
Why bet the Jaguars: South Alabama was much better than its 6-6 record last year. The Jaguars were a competitive bunch with five of their six losses coming by seven points or less. With 15 returning starters, South Alabama should have good fortune and win the close games. The Jaguars improved on both sides of the ball in 2013, so this team is on the upswing.
Why not bet the Jaguars: South Alabama’s schedule is brutal down the stretch as three of its last five games are on the road. Trips to Louisiana and Arkansas State in conference play, and a game at South Carolina will be difficult, especially if the Jaguars are fatigued or beset with injuries.
Season win total pick: Over 8
UL Monroe Warhawks (2013: 6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +450
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Warhawks: UL Monroe plays the quirky 3-3-5 defensive scheme and with nine starters back, the stop unit will be much improved. The Warhawks didn’t get a bowl invite last season despite winning six games, so they will play with a chip on their shoulder, especially since they return 15 starters in 2014.
Why not bet the Warhawks: The loss of quarterback Kolton Browning to graduation leaves UL Monroe with a big hole to fill in 2014. The schedule doesn’t help either as the Warhawks play three road games at SEC opponents and close the season by playing four of their last five games on the road.
Season win total pick: Under 7
Arkansas State Red Wolves (2013: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +450
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Red Wolves: Arkansas State has been a consistent team over the last three seasons. It is 28-11 over its last 39 games, so ASU has developed a winning tradition in Jonesboro. The Red Wolves will have a strong defense that should keep them competitive.
Why not bet the Red Wolves: The Red Wolves return just four starters on offense and they will be playing for their fifth new coach in five years. Blake Anderson moves from offensive coordinator to head coach - a position he’s never held before. At some point, the coaching turnover has to catch up to Arkansas State and 2014 might be the year.
Season win total pick: Under 7
Troy Trojans (2013: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1,200
Season win total: 6
Why bet the Trojans: Troy’s offense projects to be explosive this season and as long as it gets consistent play from the quarterback position, the Trojans will be competitive. Their conference schedule is very kind and Troy should be able to take advantage of that, making its a sleeper in the Sun Belt.
Why not bet the Trojans: The Trojans defense has a lot to prove this year after four straight seasons of allowing more than 30 points per game. Troy’s team success hinges on the stop unit. Replacing QB Corey Robinson is also a major hurdle to overcome. He graduated as the Sun Belt’s all-time career leading passer.
Season win total pick: Over 6
Texas State Bobcats (2013: 6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1,500
Season win total: 6
Why bet the Bobcats: The Bobcats offense has a very strong rushing attack that can eat clock while paying ball control. They return eight starters, including a ton of experience along the offensive line. Sophomore QB Tyler Jones got plenty of experience last season and natural improvement should occur in his second season.
Why not bet the Bobcats: The Texas State defense returns only four starters and the coaching situation has set it back. Coordinator John Thompson has coached at big-name schools, but he was hired just one week before spring practice. He will implement a 4-2-5 scheme but with inexperienced players, the Bobcats will struggle to stop opponents in 2014.
Season win total pick: Under 6
Georgia Southern Eagles (2013: 7-4 SU, 1-0 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +5,500
Season win total: 5
Why bet the Eagles: Georgia Southern has finished the last four years with a winning record. The Eagles won at Florida last season and with 15 returning starters, their transition from FCS to FBS may be a bit easier than normal. Their talent fits in well with Sun Belt opponents.
Why not bet the Eagles: There’s a lot of change going on with Georgia Southern in 2014. Willie Fritz is the new head coach and he’s looking to open up the Eagles’ run-based offense. Depth is also an issue for Georgia Southern as it only has 63 scholarship players (FCS rules) compared to the 85 allowed for FBS teams. The Eagles also play seven of their 12 games on the road this season.
Season win total pick: Under 5
Idaho Vandals (2013: 1-11 SU, 3-9 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +10,000
Season win total: 3
Why bet the Vandals: Idaho is taking a step down in class by joining the Sun Belt. The Vandals can only improve off their one-win season and the return of 17 starters is definitely a plus. The lesser competition will give Idaho a major boost and it will be a much improved team in 2014.
Why not bet the Vandals: The Vandals finished dead last in the FBS in scoring defense last season, giving up 46.8 points per game. Things don’t get easier for Idaho as it is now in a conference known for explosive offenses. The Vandals’ offense also needs to step way up as they averaged just 18.2 points per game last year and only 15.8 ppg in 2012.
Season win total pick: Over 3
New Mexico State Aggies (2013: 2-10 SU, 4-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +10,000
Season win total: 3
Why bet the Aggies: New Mexico State will benefit from playing in the Sun Belt conference. Its schedule was brutal in head coach Doug Martin’s first season. But this year, the Aggies have manageable games that are winnable. The offense will surprise teams and the ability to score points will make New Mexico State better in 2014.
Why not bet the Aggies: Statistically, New Mexico State had the worst defense in the country in 2013. It allowed 44.6 points and 550 yards per game. It returns just five starters to that unit and must learn the new schemes under new defensive coordinator Larry Coyer.
Season win total pick: Over 3
Appalachian State Mountaineers (2013: 4-8 SU, 1-0 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +20,000
Season win total: 3
Why bet the Mountaineers: Appalachian State suffered its first losing season since 1993 after going just 4-8 in 2013. Winning programs tend to bounce back strong off a subpar season, so the Mountaineers will be hungry coming into 2014. With 15 returning starters, including nine on offense, Appalachian State will improve this season.
Why not bet the Mountaineers: The team is moving up from FCS to FBS and it is a young and inexperienced team. Head coach Scott Satterfield is in just his second season and he has little experience as well. Facing better competition every week will prove to be too much for the Mountaineers in their first season in FBS.
Season win total pick: Under 3
Georgia State Panthers (2013: 0-12 SU, 8-4 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +25,000
Season win total: 2
Why bet the Panthers: After going 0-12 in 2013, there’s nowhere to go but up for Georgia State. Despite going winless, the Panthers lost five games by 10 points or less so they were somewhat competitive and it showed in their ATS record.
Why not bet the Panthers: Georgia State hopes its second year in FBS play will be better. But with only nine returning starters, expectations are extremely low. The Panthers have a weak offense and a terrible defense and anything more than two wins would be considered a successful season in Atlanta.
Season win total pick: Under 2
The Sun Belt looks like a four-team race for the title, but that means there’s big betting value outside of those contenders in college football’s tiniest conference.
UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (2013: 9-4 SU, 5-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +110
Season win total: 9
Why bet the Ragin’ Cajuns: UL Lafayette is the best team on paper in the Sun Belt coming into the 2014 season. The Ragin’ Cajuns return 17 starters, including quarterback Terrance Broadway, who put up big numbers last season. The offense will be potent once again after averaging 33.8 points per game in 2013. Their defense improved last season and they will move forward once again.
Why not bet the Ragin’ Cajuns: Despite returning 17 starters, UL Lafayette's best playmaker - Darryl Surgent - graduated. Surgent was a solid receiver and an exceptional return man, giving the Ragin’ Cajuns consistent good field position. Losing one skill guy shouldn’t be an issue, but Surgent was a difference maker and ULL will miss his presence.
Season win total pick: Over 9
South Alabama Jaguars (2013: 6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +320
Season win total: 8
Why bet the Jaguars: South Alabama was much better than its 6-6 record last year. The Jaguars were a competitive bunch with five of their six losses coming by seven points or less. With 15 returning starters, South Alabama should have good fortune and win the close games. The Jaguars improved on both sides of the ball in 2013, so this team is on the upswing.
Why not bet the Jaguars: South Alabama’s schedule is brutal down the stretch as three of its last five games are on the road. Trips to Louisiana and Arkansas State in conference play, and a game at South Carolina will be difficult, especially if the Jaguars are fatigued or beset with injuries.
Season win total pick: Over 8
UL Monroe Warhawks (2013: 6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +450
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Warhawks: UL Monroe plays the quirky 3-3-5 defensive scheme and with nine starters back, the stop unit will be much improved. The Warhawks didn’t get a bowl invite last season despite winning six games, so they will play with a chip on their shoulder, especially since they return 15 starters in 2014.
Why not bet the Warhawks: The loss of quarterback Kolton Browning to graduation leaves UL Monroe with a big hole to fill in 2014. The schedule doesn’t help either as the Warhawks play three road games at SEC opponents and close the season by playing four of their last five games on the road.
Season win total pick: Under 7
Arkansas State Red Wolves (2013: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +450
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Red Wolves: Arkansas State has been a consistent team over the last three seasons. It is 28-11 over its last 39 games, so ASU has developed a winning tradition in Jonesboro. The Red Wolves will have a strong defense that should keep them competitive.
Why not bet the Red Wolves: The Red Wolves return just four starters on offense and they will be playing for their fifth new coach in five years. Blake Anderson moves from offensive coordinator to head coach - a position he’s never held before. At some point, the coaching turnover has to catch up to Arkansas State and 2014 might be the year.
Season win total pick: Under 7
Troy Trojans (2013: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1,200
Season win total: 6
Why bet the Trojans: Troy’s offense projects to be explosive this season and as long as it gets consistent play from the quarterback position, the Trojans will be competitive. Their conference schedule is very kind and Troy should be able to take advantage of that, making its a sleeper in the Sun Belt.
Why not bet the Trojans: The Trojans defense has a lot to prove this year after four straight seasons of allowing more than 30 points per game. Troy’s team success hinges on the stop unit. Replacing QB Corey Robinson is also a major hurdle to overcome. He graduated as the Sun Belt’s all-time career leading passer.
Season win total pick: Over 6
Texas State Bobcats (2013: 6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1,500
Season win total: 6
Why bet the Bobcats: The Bobcats offense has a very strong rushing attack that can eat clock while paying ball control. They return eight starters, including a ton of experience along the offensive line. Sophomore QB Tyler Jones got plenty of experience last season and natural improvement should occur in his second season.
Why not bet the Bobcats: The Texas State defense returns only four starters and the coaching situation has set it back. Coordinator John Thompson has coached at big-name schools, but he was hired just one week before spring practice. He will implement a 4-2-5 scheme but with inexperienced players, the Bobcats will struggle to stop opponents in 2014.
Season win total pick: Under 6
Georgia Southern Eagles (2013: 7-4 SU, 1-0 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +5,500
Season win total: 5
Why bet the Eagles: Georgia Southern has finished the last four years with a winning record. The Eagles won at Florida last season and with 15 returning starters, their transition from FCS to FBS may be a bit easier than normal. Their talent fits in well with Sun Belt opponents.
Why not bet the Eagles: There’s a lot of change going on with Georgia Southern in 2014. Willie Fritz is the new head coach and he’s looking to open up the Eagles’ run-based offense. Depth is also an issue for Georgia Southern as it only has 63 scholarship players (FCS rules) compared to the 85 allowed for FBS teams. The Eagles also play seven of their 12 games on the road this season.
Season win total pick: Under 5
Idaho Vandals (2013: 1-11 SU, 3-9 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +10,000
Season win total: 3
Why bet the Vandals: Idaho is taking a step down in class by joining the Sun Belt. The Vandals can only improve off their one-win season and the return of 17 starters is definitely a plus. The lesser competition will give Idaho a major boost and it will be a much improved team in 2014.
Why not bet the Vandals: The Vandals finished dead last in the FBS in scoring defense last season, giving up 46.8 points per game. Things don’t get easier for Idaho as it is now in a conference known for explosive offenses. The Vandals’ offense also needs to step way up as they averaged just 18.2 points per game last year and only 15.8 ppg in 2012.
Season win total pick: Over 3
New Mexico State Aggies (2013: 2-10 SU, 4-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +10,000
Season win total: 3
Why bet the Aggies: New Mexico State will benefit from playing in the Sun Belt conference. Its schedule was brutal in head coach Doug Martin’s first season. But this year, the Aggies have manageable games that are winnable. The offense will surprise teams and the ability to score points will make New Mexico State better in 2014.
Why not bet the Aggies: Statistically, New Mexico State had the worst defense in the country in 2013. It allowed 44.6 points and 550 yards per game. It returns just five starters to that unit and must learn the new schemes under new defensive coordinator Larry Coyer.
Season win total pick: Over 3
Appalachian State Mountaineers (2013: 4-8 SU, 1-0 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +20,000
Season win total: 3
Why bet the Mountaineers: Appalachian State suffered its first losing season since 1993 after going just 4-8 in 2013. Winning programs tend to bounce back strong off a subpar season, so the Mountaineers will be hungry coming into 2014. With 15 returning starters, including nine on offense, Appalachian State will improve this season.
Why not bet the Mountaineers: The team is moving up from FCS to FBS and it is a young and inexperienced team. Head coach Scott Satterfield is in just his second season and he has little experience as well. Facing better competition every week will prove to be too much for the Mountaineers in their first season in FBS.
Season win total pick: Under 3
Georgia State Panthers (2013: 0-12 SU, 8-4 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +25,000
Season win total: 2
Why bet the Panthers: After going 0-12 in 2013, there’s nowhere to go but up for Georgia State. Despite going winless, the Panthers lost five games by 10 points or less so they were somewhat competitive and it showed in their ATS record.
Why not bet the Panthers: Georgia State hopes its second year in FBS play will be better. But with only nine returning starters, expectations are extremely low. The Panthers have a weak offense and a terrible defense and anything more than two wins would be considered a successful season in Atlanta.
Season win total pick: Under 2
Four dark-horse NCAAF bets to make the BCS Final Four
College football will undergo an exciting change this year with the first ever four-team playoff to crown its national champion.
Everybody has their opinion on which four teams will be left standing after the season is over. We all know the favorites, so let's take a look at some of the dark-horse teams that could find their way into college football's final four:
Stanford Cardinal (+400 to make BCS playoff)
Oregon and UCLA have gotten a lot of love this preseason which leaves the Cardinal as the odd men out in the Pac-12. Under head coach David Shaw, the Cardinal have won double-digit games and have gone to a BCS bowl game all three years.
They lost three games in 2013 but only by an average of 4.3 points. One play in each game could have been the difference between a win and a loss. It's also important to note that Stanford is 5-0 in the last two years against the two favorites in the Pac-12, Oregon and UCLA.
Wisconsin Badgers (+3,300 to win national title)
Like Stanford, Wisconsin has two other teams favored ahead of it in its conference, Ohio State and Michigan State. In head coach Gary Anderson's debut season, the Badgers lost three regular season games, but the loss to Arizona State can be discarded due to the fluke referee mishap and the other two were close 7-point losses.
What you get from teams like Wisconsin and Stanford are solid play on both sides of the football and more than often they don't make mistakes, which keeps them in every single game. The Badgers do have a tough opener against LSU but they also don't play Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State or Ohio State.
South Carolina Gamecocks (+2,500 to win national title)
Most books have odds for four different SEC teams to make the national semifinal (Alabama, Auburn, Georgia and LSU) but Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks are nowhere to be found. Yes, they have to replace the best player on their offense - and arguably the heart and soul of their team - in Connor Shaw, and the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft in Jadeveon Clowney. But they still have one of the most experienced teams in the SEC.
South Carolina still has one of the best running backs in the nation, Mike Davis, and a consistently good and underrated defense. The Gamecocks get Georgia in Columbia, which is big, and despite drawing a tough cross-divisional slate with Auburn and Texas A&M, their strength of schedule could be enough to get them to the playoff - even with a blemish - if they win big down the stretch.
Marshall Thundering Herd (+10,000 to win national title *field)
Ah, the wild card. This team has the talent and the schedule to run the table, priced as a huge -600 favorite to win the C-USA title. But, they will need some help in order to get to the playoff.
Marshall needs to take care of business in conference play - in a decisive manner with no sexy non-conference opponents - and hope that the landscape looks similar to 2007 when the regular season ended with a multitude of two-loss teams near the top of the polls.
College football will undergo an exciting change this year with the first ever four-team playoff to crown its national champion.
Everybody has their opinion on which four teams will be left standing after the season is over. We all know the favorites, so let's take a look at some of the dark-horse teams that could find their way into college football's final four:
Stanford Cardinal (+400 to make BCS playoff)
Oregon and UCLA have gotten a lot of love this preseason which leaves the Cardinal as the odd men out in the Pac-12. Under head coach David Shaw, the Cardinal have won double-digit games and have gone to a BCS bowl game all three years.
They lost three games in 2013 but only by an average of 4.3 points. One play in each game could have been the difference between a win and a loss. It's also important to note that Stanford is 5-0 in the last two years against the two favorites in the Pac-12, Oregon and UCLA.
Wisconsin Badgers (+3,300 to win national title)
Like Stanford, Wisconsin has two other teams favored ahead of it in its conference, Ohio State and Michigan State. In head coach Gary Anderson's debut season, the Badgers lost three regular season games, but the loss to Arizona State can be discarded due to the fluke referee mishap and the other two were close 7-point losses.
What you get from teams like Wisconsin and Stanford are solid play on both sides of the football and more than often they don't make mistakes, which keeps them in every single game. The Badgers do have a tough opener against LSU but they also don't play Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State or Ohio State.
South Carolina Gamecocks (+2,500 to win national title)
Most books have odds for four different SEC teams to make the national semifinal (Alabama, Auburn, Georgia and LSU) but Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks are nowhere to be found. Yes, they have to replace the best player on their offense - and arguably the heart and soul of their team - in Connor Shaw, and the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft in Jadeveon Clowney. But they still have one of the most experienced teams in the SEC.
South Carolina still has one of the best running backs in the nation, Mike Davis, and a consistently good and underrated defense. The Gamecocks get Georgia in Columbia, which is big, and despite drawing a tough cross-divisional slate with Auburn and Texas A&M, their strength of schedule could be enough to get them to the playoff - even with a blemish - if they win big down the stretch.
Marshall Thundering Herd (+10,000 to win national title *field)
Ah, the wild card. This team has the talent and the schedule to run the table, priced as a huge -600 favorite to win the C-USA title. But, they will need some help in order to get to the playoff.
Marshall needs to take care of business in conference play - in a decisive manner with no sexy non-conference opponents - and hope that the landscape looks similar to 2007 when the regular season ended with a multitude of two-loss teams near the top of the polls.
Pressing Mississippi State
July 22, 2014
For nearly a decade, LSU and Alabama have clearly been the superior programs in the SEC West. Now obviously, the previous statement didn't apply to Auburn last season and in 2010 with Cam Newton. But other than those years, the rest of the division has been looking up at 'Bama and LSU.
In 2014, however, I think the West is wide open. In fact, with the exception of Arkansas, there are six schools that have the potential to get to Atlanta.
I mainly say this because 'Bama and LSU don't know what they are going to get out of the quarterback position. I doubt there are many that would argue that the Crimson Tide has the most talent in the nation on offense at 10 positions.
But if a defensive coordinator can make things murky for that 11th and most vital player under center, an offense can only accomplish so much. Jacob Coker appears to be the likely starter at QB for 'Bama, even though Nick Saban wouldn't go that far at SEC Media Days last week.
Coker has excellent size and skills, and there's no shame in riding the pine behind E.J. Manuel and Jameis Winston. There are lots of reasons to think he'll be a quality SEC quarterback, but Coker hasn't jumped in the fire against live bullets yet. His only playing time at FSU came in mop-up duty.
Coker also missed spring practice and didn't arrive in Tuscaloosa until the first week of May. Has he had enough time to gel with his teammates and learn the offense? Only time will tell.
Anthony Jennings helped LSU pull out a win over Arkansas in last year's regular-season finale. With Zach Mettenberger injured, Jennings made his first career start in a 21-14 win over Iowa at the Outback Bowl. He'll battle with Brandon Harris for the starting job in Baton Rouge.
Jennings and Harris are both athletic guys in the mold of Jordan Jefferson, meaning you can expect Les Miles to get back to living and dying with a ground attack and a stout defense. In other words, last year was an aberration in terms of LSU's style of play.
Auburn certainly feels as if it is as talented as its in-state rival, but Gus Malzahn's team has to play in Tuscaloosa and has a much tougher schedule than the Crimson Tide. As for Texas A&M, it has to vastly improve on defense and, like LSU and 'Bama, the QB position is a question mark.
Where I'm going with all of this is that if there's a year for Ole Miss or Mississippi State to break through, this could be it. There's a lot to like about both squads that hail from the Magnolia State.
I'll hit on the Rebels at some point in the next week or two, but I want to spend the rest of this column talking about Dan Mullen's team. That's because I'm extremely bullish on backing Mississippi St. to go 'over' 7.5 wins (at even money via LVH SuperBook).
When breaking down a season win total (that's based on the 12 regular-season games only), the schedule is the most important part of the handicap. Unlike last year when Mississippi St. lost a tough non-conference game to Oklahoma St. 21-3 in Houston, the Bulldogs have four lay-ups in non-con play. We can mark down four wins vs. So. Miss, vs. UAB, at South Alabama and vs. UT-Martin.
Mullen couldn't ask for a better draw in terms of the two games against SEC East foes. Mississippi St. hosts Vanderbilt and plays at Kentucky off an open date. Those aren't two given victories, but the Bulldogs will almost certainly be favored in both matchups.
Another 'chalk' spot for MSU will come in the form of a Nov. 1 home game vs. Arkansas. My thinking is that I've already mentioned seven wins, leaving us to find just one more in five remaining games. The best spot to get that 'W' will be at home vs. Texas A&M on Oct. 4.
When the Bulldogs went to College Station last season, they produced 556 yards of total offense but couldn't stop Johnny Pigskin in a 51-41 loss. When the Aggies come to Starkville this year, they will be playing their sixth game in six weeks and their third in a row away from College Station (A&M plays at SMU and vs. Arkansas in Arlington the two previous weeks). On the flip side, MSU will have two weeks to prepare for the Aggies thanks to an open date.
MSU's four other games include three road assignments (at LSU, at Alabama and at Ole Miss) and a home game against Auburn. Those are most likely four underdog situations, but the game in Oxford and the home game against AU are certainly winnable contests.
Remember, Mississippi St. had a 20-17 advantage at Auburn last year in the final two minutes. The Tigers had to mount a drive of 80-plus yards and get a last-second touchdown pass to pull out the win.
Now let's talk personnel. Mississippi St. brings back eight starters on each side of the ball from a team that went 7-6 straight up and 8-5 against the spread. We noted the narrow loss at Auburn and the Bulldogs had more yards in defeats at Texas A&M and at South Carolina.
And we haven't even hit on the injuries and off-the-field turmoil quarterback Dak Prescott was dealing with. Prescott spent the entire season concerned about the failing health of his mother, who finally succumbed to a long battle with cancer on Nov. 4. If Prescott hadn't been injured in a 20-7 home loss to Alabama, who knows how that game goes?
In the setback against the Tide, MSU could only muster 199 yards of total offense. The Bulldogs' defense was tenacious on that night, setting up the offense with several short fields they couldn't capitalize on.
Prescott returns for his junior campaign brimming with confidence. He's healthy and ready to build upon an impressive sophomore season. Prescott rushed for 917 yards and 13 TDs, while also throwing for 1,940 yards and 10 scores. Six of his top seven pass catchers are back, including one of the SEC's best wideouts in Jameon Lewish, who had 64 receptions for 923 yards and five TDs in 2013.
The defense is led by rising junior linebacker Bernardrick McKinney, who has made 173 tackles in two seasons. In Mel Kiper's most recent 2015 mock draft, McKinney is listed as a first-round pick. The Bulldogs also have a rising superstar in sophomore defensive tackle Chris Jones, who had three sacks and 10 QB hurries while playing as a reserve last year.
Despite giving up 59 points to LSU and 51 to Texas A&M, Mississippi St. only allowed 23.0 points per game last year. With Mettenberger and Manziel gone, I see MSU playing better defense in 2014. And with Prescott poised for a breakout season, I have no doubt that the Bulldogs are going to be more prolific offensively. They'll average more than last year's 27.7 PPG output and will also put up at least eight wins. Jump on this 'over' right now.
July 22, 2014
For nearly a decade, LSU and Alabama have clearly been the superior programs in the SEC West. Now obviously, the previous statement didn't apply to Auburn last season and in 2010 with Cam Newton. But other than those years, the rest of the division has been looking up at 'Bama and LSU.
In 2014, however, I think the West is wide open. In fact, with the exception of Arkansas, there are six schools that have the potential to get to Atlanta.
I mainly say this because 'Bama and LSU don't know what they are going to get out of the quarterback position. I doubt there are many that would argue that the Crimson Tide has the most talent in the nation on offense at 10 positions.
But if a defensive coordinator can make things murky for that 11th and most vital player under center, an offense can only accomplish so much. Jacob Coker appears to be the likely starter at QB for 'Bama, even though Nick Saban wouldn't go that far at SEC Media Days last week.
Coker has excellent size and skills, and there's no shame in riding the pine behind E.J. Manuel and Jameis Winston. There are lots of reasons to think he'll be a quality SEC quarterback, but Coker hasn't jumped in the fire against live bullets yet. His only playing time at FSU came in mop-up duty.
Coker also missed spring practice and didn't arrive in Tuscaloosa until the first week of May. Has he had enough time to gel with his teammates and learn the offense? Only time will tell.
Anthony Jennings helped LSU pull out a win over Arkansas in last year's regular-season finale. With Zach Mettenberger injured, Jennings made his first career start in a 21-14 win over Iowa at the Outback Bowl. He'll battle with Brandon Harris for the starting job in Baton Rouge.
Jennings and Harris are both athletic guys in the mold of Jordan Jefferson, meaning you can expect Les Miles to get back to living and dying with a ground attack and a stout defense. In other words, last year was an aberration in terms of LSU's style of play.
Auburn certainly feels as if it is as talented as its in-state rival, but Gus Malzahn's team has to play in Tuscaloosa and has a much tougher schedule than the Crimson Tide. As for Texas A&M, it has to vastly improve on defense and, like LSU and 'Bama, the QB position is a question mark.
Where I'm going with all of this is that if there's a year for Ole Miss or Mississippi State to break through, this could be it. There's a lot to like about both squads that hail from the Magnolia State.
I'll hit on the Rebels at some point in the next week or two, but I want to spend the rest of this column talking about Dan Mullen's team. That's because I'm extremely bullish on backing Mississippi St. to go 'over' 7.5 wins (at even money via LVH SuperBook).
When breaking down a season win total (that's based on the 12 regular-season games only), the schedule is the most important part of the handicap. Unlike last year when Mississippi St. lost a tough non-conference game to Oklahoma St. 21-3 in Houston, the Bulldogs have four lay-ups in non-con play. We can mark down four wins vs. So. Miss, vs. UAB, at South Alabama and vs. UT-Martin.
Mullen couldn't ask for a better draw in terms of the two games against SEC East foes. Mississippi St. hosts Vanderbilt and plays at Kentucky off an open date. Those aren't two given victories, but the Bulldogs will almost certainly be favored in both matchups.
Another 'chalk' spot for MSU will come in the form of a Nov. 1 home game vs. Arkansas. My thinking is that I've already mentioned seven wins, leaving us to find just one more in five remaining games. The best spot to get that 'W' will be at home vs. Texas A&M on Oct. 4.
When the Bulldogs went to College Station last season, they produced 556 yards of total offense but couldn't stop Johnny Pigskin in a 51-41 loss. When the Aggies come to Starkville this year, they will be playing their sixth game in six weeks and their third in a row away from College Station (A&M plays at SMU and vs. Arkansas in Arlington the two previous weeks). On the flip side, MSU will have two weeks to prepare for the Aggies thanks to an open date.
MSU's four other games include three road assignments (at LSU, at Alabama and at Ole Miss) and a home game against Auburn. Those are most likely four underdog situations, but the game in Oxford and the home game against AU are certainly winnable contests.
Remember, Mississippi St. had a 20-17 advantage at Auburn last year in the final two minutes. The Tigers had to mount a drive of 80-plus yards and get a last-second touchdown pass to pull out the win.
Now let's talk personnel. Mississippi St. brings back eight starters on each side of the ball from a team that went 7-6 straight up and 8-5 against the spread. We noted the narrow loss at Auburn and the Bulldogs had more yards in defeats at Texas A&M and at South Carolina.
And we haven't even hit on the injuries and off-the-field turmoil quarterback Dak Prescott was dealing with. Prescott spent the entire season concerned about the failing health of his mother, who finally succumbed to a long battle with cancer on Nov. 4. If Prescott hadn't been injured in a 20-7 home loss to Alabama, who knows how that game goes?
In the setback against the Tide, MSU could only muster 199 yards of total offense. The Bulldogs' defense was tenacious on that night, setting up the offense with several short fields they couldn't capitalize on.
Prescott returns for his junior campaign brimming with confidence. He's healthy and ready to build upon an impressive sophomore season. Prescott rushed for 917 yards and 13 TDs, while also throwing for 1,940 yards and 10 scores. Six of his top seven pass catchers are back, including one of the SEC's best wideouts in Jameon Lewish, who had 64 receptions for 923 yards and five TDs in 2013.
The defense is led by rising junior linebacker Bernardrick McKinney, who has made 173 tackles in two seasons. In Mel Kiper's most recent 2015 mock draft, McKinney is listed as a first-round pick. The Bulldogs also have a rising superstar in sophomore defensive tackle Chris Jones, who had three sacks and 10 QB hurries while playing as a reserve last year.
Despite giving up 59 points to LSU and 51 to Texas A&M, Mississippi St. only allowed 23.0 points per game last year. With Mettenberger and Manziel gone, I see MSU playing better defense in 2014. And with Prescott poised for a breakout season, I have no doubt that the Bulldogs are going to be more prolific offensively. They'll average more than last year's 27.7 PPG output and will also put up at least eight wins. Jump on this 'over' right now.
2014 MWC Preview
July 21, 2014
2014 Mountain West Football Preview
We’re Back, Again
For the sixth consecutive year, the Mountain West sent at least five teams into postseason bowl games in 2013. The MWC has earned 62 bowl bids since 1999 and holds a 35-27 (.565) all-time record in those contests. However, the Mountain West finished with a 3-3 mark in postseason play in 2013, marking the third year in a row the league failed to post a winning bowl record (6-10 last three seasons).
Fresno State (11-2), Utah State (9-5), Boise State (8-5), San Diego State (8-5), Colorado State (8-6), UNLV (7-6) and San Jose State (6-6) all reached bowl eligibility, marking the ninth year in a row, and tenth overall, the MWC has boasted at least five bowl-eligible teams.
In fact, its .596 win percentage (28-19) in bowl games since 2004 is second only to the SEC’s .659 glossy (54-28) mark.
Newbies
The Mountain West has welcomed 22 new head coaches over the last 15 seasons, nine of which played in a bowl game in their rookie year.
Former BYU head coach Gary Crowton posted the most wins and highest win-percentage among the group with 12 victories and an .860 win percentage in his inaugural year in 2001. Utah State’s Matt Wells became the first to conclude his inaugural season by leading his team to the Mountain West Championship Game and a bowl appearance.
Two new head coaches debut this season: Bryan Harsin with Boise State and Craig Bohl with Wyoming.
We Won’t Back Down
The 2014 non-conference slate features 25 games against teams that earned bowl berths last season.
Six non-conference opponents finished ranked in last year’s final USA Today/Coaches’ and Associated Press Top 25 polls.
Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.
Mountain Division
AIR FORCE (Offense - *7/2 Defense - 9/2)
TEAM THEME: A MAJOR FLYOVER
Talk about a difficult job. After winning 34 games in his first four seasons, and taking the program to six straight bowl games, Troy Calhoun is suddenly up against it. Between no redshirts, a successful Navy program siphoning off considerable talent, and government budget cuts, Calhoun has witnessed three years of regression. Ravaged by injuries, the Flyboys were forced to play a slew of backups last season, including four different QB’s. As a result, Air Force lost 10 games for the first time in the program’s history. Ron Vanderlinden, former Maryland head coach and LB coach at Penn State the last 13 years, arrives to shore up 2013’s dreadful defense.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Falcons were the worst team in the nation in Turnovers Gained (9) last season.
BOISE STATE (Offense - 5/2 Defense - 8/1)
TEAM THEME: A COMFORTABLE PAIR OF SHOES
An 8-5 record is perfectly acceptable at most schools, but not at Boise State. The school won 112 games during the double-oughts (2000-09), an unprecedented mark for any school since 1900. Now for the first time in eight years, the Broncos will head onto the blue turf led by someone other than Chris Petersen, who went 84-8 as HC from 2006-12. Fortunately, it's a familiar face, that of Bryan Harsin – who played his entire college career and then coached on the Bronco staff from 2001-10 (Boise went 61-5 during his tenure as OC from 2006-10). His staff is young with all sorts of ties to BSU. Petersen left some big shoes to fill. Harsin breaks in a new pair this year.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The last 5-loss season for the Broncos was in 1998. They have averaged an 11-2 season since.
COLORADO STATE (Offense - *5/1 Defense - 6/1)
TEAM THEME: ROCKY MOUNTAIN HIGH
Jim McElwain, a Nick Saban disciple, welcomes back the top returning passer in the Mountain West, Garrett Grayson, who threw for 3,696 yards and 23 TD’s last season. Three of Grayson’s top four receivers are back as well, but someone will need to fill the shoes of Kapri Bibbs, who left early for the NFL draft, and the loss of four senior OL. Fortunately, the Rams will be playing two-thirds of their games in the state of Colorado. McIlwain will try to build on last year’s successful campaign that concluded with an incredible 48-45 win over Washington State, a game in which they were down by 15 points with 3 minutes to play in the New Mexico Bowl.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: CSU was the only team in the nation to end the 2013 season with a 3,000 yard passer (Grayson) and a 1,500 yard rusher (Bibbs).
NEW MEXICO (Offense - *6/3 Defense - 6/1)
TEAM THEME: THE NEXT STEP
The Lobos enter the 3rd year of a rebuilding plan masterminded by HC Bob Davie. Progress has been slow but the improvement is evident. “It’s time for us to take the next step and start to play the game the way it’s supposed to be played,” says Davie. The footprint on the team is its overland game, one that ranked No. 4 (308.8) overall last year. QB Cole Gautsche, who rushed for 872 yards last season, keys the offense. The problem is the Lobos owned the worst Passing Efficiency Defense in the nation in 2013. After enduring sanctions, New Mexico has a full 85-man roster for the first time since 2008, albeit only two 5th-year seniors on the squad.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Lobos have been outscored 7.1 PPG under Davie. They had been outscored 26.0 PPG the prior three seasons.
UTAH STATE (Offense - *4/1 Defense - 5/1)
TEAM THEME: CHUCKIE’S BACK
En route to winning back-to back-bowl games for the first time in school history last year, 1st-year HC Matt Wells was named MWC Coach of the Year. The Aggie defense did not appear to fall off much when Gary Andersen left for Wisconsin last year. After earning the top spot in the land in red zone defense in 2012, USU finished No. 6 last season. The big news this year, though, is the anticipated return of star QB Chuckie Keeton, a 3-year starter who missed the final seven games with a broken leg and knee injury last year. His backup, Darell Garretson, went 6-1 as a true freshman last year, including five straight wins to start his career.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Aggies are 25-8 in their last 33 games, with the eight losses coming by a combined 48 points.
WYOMING (Offense - 7/2 Defense - 9/3)
TEAM THEME: A COWBOY COUP D’ETAT
To quote Bill Connelly of SB Nation, “Wyoming pulled off a coup by landing Craig Bohl as its new head coach.” The former HC at North Dakota State led his team to three consecutive FCS championships the last three years, going 42-3 in the process – including a season-opening shocker at Kansas State last year. A former DC at Nebraska (his alma mater), Bohl needs to desperately remold a defense that surrendered nearly 50 PPG in its final six games last season. Losing QB Brett Smith in an early out to the NFL hurts but returning the Cowboys’ leading rusher and wide receiver is certainly a huge plus. September road trips to Michigan State and Oregon are not.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Cowboys were the worst-ranked team in the nation in Time Of Possession last season.
West Division
FRESNO STATE (Offense - 5/3 Defense - 8/1)
TEAM THEME: CARR TROUBLES
With the Derek Carr era now in the rear-view mirror, 2014 could be a very tough year for Tim DeRuyter in Fresno. The Bulldogs open with an ambitious schedule before the meat of the Mountain West slate kicks in. The defense remains nearly intact but the loss of Carr’s gaudy passing numbers (over 5,000 yards and 50 TD’s), and the three graduated receivers who combined for 33 TD catches, cannot be easily replaced. After a 10-0 start last season, Fresno saw a BCS bowl slip through its fingers, then suffered a throttling by USC in the Las Vegas Bowl. All things considered, the Bulldogs will be hard pressed to win a third straight MWC title.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Six of the eight returning starters on defense played in all 13 contests last season.
HAWAII (Offense - 7/4 Defense - 6/2)
TEAM THEME: YAP-A-LAKALAKA
Norm Chow heads into his third season as HC on the island of Oahu coming off a dismal 1-11 record. But the Rainbow Warriors weren't as bad as their record might indicate. In fact, we might even say they were the best 1-11 squad to come down the pike in a long time. You just couldn’t tell it in the win column. Consider: In Norm Chow’s first year at the helm with Hawaii in 2013, their 9 losses were by 31.1 PPG. Last year’s 11 defeats were by 13.0 PPG. With RB’s Joey Iosefa, Diocemy Saint Juste, and bruiser Steven Lakalaka – plus star DL Beau Yap – leading the charges, this team is certainly not lacking in name power.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Chow is 0-15 SU vs. greater-than .333 opponents, but 6-1 ATS vs. non-conferences foes.
NEVADA (Offense - *7/3 Defense - 10/4)
TEAM THEME: AULT HEIMER’S DISEASE
It’s not surprising that the Wolfpack regressed big time following the second retirement of Chris Ault. The inventor of the pistol offense reached a zenith in 2010 (Colin Kaepernick’s senior year) when Nevada went 13-1. But in their first season under Brian Polian last year, the Pack went 0-8 against teams with a winning record. Polian’s team got ‘rappykacked’ by UCLA and Florida State early in the year on the road, and finished with an 0-6 road mark. They’ll once again turn to SR QB Cody Fajardo, who threw for 2,633 yards and rushed for 762 more last year. His .678 career completion percentage ranks third nationally and is tops in Nevada school history.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Wolf Pack was the only one of 42 FBS teams last season to finish with a positive TO margin and a losing record.
SAN DIEGO STATE (Offense - *6/3 Defense - 4/2)
TEAM THEME: SUNNY IN SAN DIEGO
For a football team that won 35 games between 2001-09, 34 wins over the last four years is especially notable. And after appearing in four bowls from 1969-2009, the Aztecs’ four bowls the past four seasons is downright inspiring. More impressively, they kept their bowl streak alive despite ranking dead last nationally in red zone defense – and fielding the 118th-ranked red zone offense. HC Rocky Long’s reliance on former head coach Bob Toledo (OC) and ex-NFL QB Brian Sipe (QB coach) speaks for itself. Quarterback Quinn Kaehler completed 232 of 389 passes for 19 TD's and 3,007 yards in 2013 and looks to have a breakout season this year.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Aztecs were the only team in the nation to participate in four overtime games last season.
SAN JOSE STATE (Offense - 5/2 Defense - 8/4)
TEAM THEME: WITHOUT FALE(S)
After taking the program from 1-12 to 11-2 in three years, Mike McIntyre left San Jose and handed the keys to Rod Caragher, who slipped to 5-7 last season. Safe to say the injury bug bit the Spartans hard in 2013 when their leading rusher, wide receiver and linebacker played in a combined three games all year! Caragher faces a stiffer test in 2014 – namely life without star QB David Fales. The good news is Tyler Winston, the MWC Freshman of the Year, is back after snaring 58 receptions for 858 yards last season. In addition, RB Jarrod Lawson was the team’s leading rusher (788 yards) as a freshman in 2013. A deep front seven will anchor the defense.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Former Syracuse head coach and Michigan and Texas Defensive Coordinator Greg Robinson takes over as DC for the Spartans in 2014.
UNLV (Offense - 7/4 Defense - 6/2)
TEAM THEME: NOT MAKING THE GRADE
With the team’s average APR score (925) falling 5 points short of minimum NCAA requirements, the Rebs were given sanctions: no postseason competition, replace four hours of practice time with four hours of academics weekly and have five days of football-related activities a week instead of six. Not what the program needed after finally crawling out from under a 6-32 rock by reaching the Heart Of Dallas Bowl last season. Biggest losses on the field this year include QB Caleb Herring (2,718 yards with 24 TD’s and 5 INT’s), and RB Tim Cornett (1,284 rushing yards with 15 TD’s). HC Bobby Hauck’s mission will be to somehow keep this squad glued together.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The offensive line returns 136 career starts among six players with starting experience.
July 21, 2014
2014 Mountain West Football Preview
We’re Back, Again
For the sixth consecutive year, the Mountain West sent at least five teams into postseason bowl games in 2013. The MWC has earned 62 bowl bids since 1999 and holds a 35-27 (.565) all-time record in those contests. However, the Mountain West finished with a 3-3 mark in postseason play in 2013, marking the third year in a row the league failed to post a winning bowl record (6-10 last three seasons).
Fresno State (11-2), Utah State (9-5), Boise State (8-5), San Diego State (8-5), Colorado State (8-6), UNLV (7-6) and San Jose State (6-6) all reached bowl eligibility, marking the ninth year in a row, and tenth overall, the MWC has boasted at least five bowl-eligible teams.
In fact, its .596 win percentage (28-19) in bowl games since 2004 is second only to the SEC’s .659 glossy (54-28) mark.
Newbies
The Mountain West has welcomed 22 new head coaches over the last 15 seasons, nine of which played in a bowl game in their rookie year.
Former BYU head coach Gary Crowton posted the most wins and highest win-percentage among the group with 12 victories and an .860 win percentage in his inaugural year in 2001. Utah State’s Matt Wells became the first to conclude his inaugural season by leading his team to the Mountain West Championship Game and a bowl appearance.
Two new head coaches debut this season: Bryan Harsin with Boise State and Craig Bohl with Wyoming.
We Won’t Back Down
The 2014 non-conference slate features 25 games against teams that earned bowl berths last season.
Six non-conference opponents finished ranked in last year’s final USA Today/Coaches’ and Associated Press Top 25 polls.
Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.
Mountain Division
AIR FORCE (Offense - *7/2 Defense - 9/2)
TEAM THEME: A MAJOR FLYOVER
Talk about a difficult job. After winning 34 games in his first four seasons, and taking the program to six straight bowl games, Troy Calhoun is suddenly up against it. Between no redshirts, a successful Navy program siphoning off considerable talent, and government budget cuts, Calhoun has witnessed three years of regression. Ravaged by injuries, the Flyboys were forced to play a slew of backups last season, including four different QB’s. As a result, Air Force lost 10 games for the first time in the program’s history. Ron Vanderlinden, former Maryland head coach and LB coach at Penn State the last 13 years, arrives to shore up 2013’s dreadful defense.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Falcons were the worst team in the nation in Turnovers Gained (9) last season.
BOISE STATE (Offense - 5/2 Defense - 8/1)
TEAM THEME: A COMFORTABLE PAIR OF SHOES
An 8-5 record is perfectly acceptable at most schools, but not at Boise State. The school won 112 games during the double-oughts (2000-09), an unprecedented mark for any school since 1900. Now for the first time in eight years, the Broncos will head onto the blue turf led by someone other than Chris Petersen, who went 84-8 as HC from 2006-12. Fortunately, it's a familiar face, that of Bryan Harsin – who played his entire college career and then coached on the Bronco staff from 2001-10 (Boise went 61-5 during his tenure as OC from 2006-10). His staff is young with all sorts of ties to BSU. Petersen left some big shoes to fill. Harsin breaks in a new pair this year.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The last 5-loss season for the Broncos was in 1998. They have averaged an 11-2 season since.
COLORADO STATE (Offense - *5/1 Defense - 6/1)
TEAM THEME: ROCKY MOUNTAIN HIGH
Jim McElwain, a Nick Saban disciple, welcomes back the top returning passer in the Mountain West, Garrett Grayson, who threw for 3,696 yards and 23 TD’s last season. Three of Grayson’s top four receivers are back as well, but someone will need to fill the shoes of Kapri Bibbs, who left early for the NFL draft, and the loss of four senior OL. Fortunately, the Rams will be playing two-thirds of their games in the state of Colorado. McIlwain will try to build on last year’s successful campaign that concluded with an incredible 48-45 win over Washington State, a game in which they were down by 15 points with 3 minutes to play in the New Mexico Bowl.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: CSU was the only team in the nation to end the 2013 season with a 3,000 yard passer (Grayson) and a 1,500 yard rusher (Bibbs).
NEW MEXICO (Offense - *6/3 Defense - 6/1)
TEAM THEME: THE NEXT STEP
The Lobos enter the 3rd year of a rebuilding plan masterminded by HC Bob Davie. Progress has been slow but the improvement is evident. “It’s time for us to take the next step and start to play the game the way it’s supposed to be played,” says Davie. The footprint on the team is its overland game, one that ranked No. 4 (308.8) overall last year. QB Cole Gautsche, who rushed for 872 yards last season, keys the offense. The problem is the Lobos owned the worst Passing Efficiency Defense in the nation in 2013. After enduring sanctions, New Mexico has a full 85-man roster for the first time since 2008, albeit only two 5th-year seniors on the squad.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Lobos have been outscored 7.1 PPG under Davie. They had been outscored 26.0 PPG the prior three seasons.
UTAH STATE (Offense - *4/1 Defense - 5/1)
TEAM THEME: CHUCKIE’S BACK
En route to winning back-to back-bowl games for the first time in school history last year, 1st-year HC Matt Wells was named MWC Coach of the Year. The Aggie defense did not appear to fall off much when Gary Andersen left for Wisconsin last year. After earning the top spot in the land in red zone defense in 2012, USU finished No. 6 last season. The big news this year, though, is the anticipated return of star QB Chuckie Keeton, a 3-year starter who missed the final seven games with a broken leg and knee injury last year. His backup, Darell Garretson, went 6-1 as a true freshman last year, including five straight wins to start his career.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Aggies are 25-8 in their last 33 games, with the eight losses coming by a combined 48 points.
WYOMING (Offense - 7/2 Defense - 9/3)
TEAM THEME: A COWBOY COUP D’ETAT
To quote Bill Connelly of SB Nation, “Wyoming pulled off a coup by landing Craig Bohl as its new head coach.” The former HC at North Dakota State led his team to three consecutive FCS championships the last three years, going 42-3 in the process – including a season-opening shocker at Kansas State last year. A former DC at Nebraska (his alma mater), Bohl needs to desperately remold a defense that surrendered nearly 50 PPG in its final six games last season. Losing QB Brett Smith in an early out to the NFL hurts but returning the Cowboys’ leading rusher and wide receiver is certainly a huge plus. September road trips to Michigan State and Oregon are not.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Cowboys were the worst-ranked team in the nation in Time Of Possession last season.
West Division
FRESNO STATE (Offense - 5/3 Defense - 8/1)
TEAM THEME: CARR TROUBLES
With the Derek Carr era now in the rear-view mirror, 2014 could be a very tough year for Tim DeRuyter in Fresno. The Bulldogs open with an ambitious schedule before the meat of the Mountain West slate kicks in. The defense remains nearly intact but the loss of Carr’s gaudy passing numbers (over 5,000 yards and 50 TD’s), and the three graduated receivers who combined for 33 TD catches, cannot be easily replaced. After a 10-0 start last season, Fresno saw a BCS bowl slip through its fingers, then suffered a throttling by USC in the Las Vegas Bowl. All things considered, the Bulldogs will be hard pressed to win a third straight MWC title.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Six of the eight returning starters on defense played in all 13 contests last season.
HAWAII (Offense - 7/4 Defense - 6/2)
TEAM THEME: YAP-A-LAKALAKA
Norm Chow heads into his third season as HC on the island of Oahu coming off a dismal 1-11 record. But the Rainbow Warriors weren't as bad as their record might indicate. In fact, we might even say they were the best 1-11 squad to come down the pike in a long time. You just couldn’t tell it in the win column. Consider: In Norm Chow’s first year at the helm with Hawaii in 2013, their 9 losses were by 31.1 PPG. Last year’s 11 defeats were by 13.0 PPG. With RB’s Joey Iosefa, Diocemy Saint Juste, and bruiser Steven Lakalaka – plus star DL Beau Yap – leading the charges, this team is certainly not lacking in name power.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Chow is 0-15 SU vs. greater-than .333 opponents, but 6-1 ATS vs. non-conferences foes.
NEVADA (Offense - *7/3 Defense - 10/4)
TEAM THEME: AULT HEIMER’S DISEASE
It’s not surprising that the Wolfpack regressed big time following the second retirement of Chris Ault. The inventor of the pistol offense reached a zenith in 2010 (Colin Kaepernick’s senior year) when Nevada went 13-1. But in their first season under Brian Polian last year, the Pack went 0-8 against teams with a winning record. Polian’s team got ‘rappykacked’ by UCLA and Florida State early in the year on the road, and finished with an 0-6 road mark. They’ll once again turn to SR QB Cody Fajardo, who threw for 2,633 yards and rushed for 762 more last year. His .678 career completion percentage ranks third nationally and is tops in Nevada school history.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Wolf Pack was the only one of 42 FBS teams last season to finish with a positive TO margin and a losing record.
SAN DIEGO STATE (Offense - *6/3 Defense - 4/2)
TEAM THEME: SUNNY IN SAN DIEGO
For a football team that won 35 games between 2001-09, 34 wins over the last four years is especially notable. And after appearing in four bowls from 1969-2009, the Aztecs’ four bowls the past four seasons is downright inspiring. More impressively, they kept their bowl streak alive despite ranking dead last nationally in red zone defense – and fielding the 118th-ranked red zone offense. HC Rocky Long’s reliance on former head coach Bob Toledo (OC) and ex-NFL QB Brian Sipe (QB coach) speaks for itself. Quarterback Quinn Kaehler completed 232 of 389 passes for 19 TD's and 3,007 yards in 2013 and looks to have a breakout season this year.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Aztecs were the only team in the nation to participate in four overtime games last season.
SAN JOSE STATE (Offense - 5/2 Defense - 8/4)
TEAM THEME: WITHOUT FALE(S)
After taking the program from 1-12 to 11-2 in three years, Mike McIntyre left San Jose and handed the keys to Rod Caragher, who slipped to 5-7 last season. Safe to say the injury bug bit the Spartans hard in 2013 when their leading rusher, wide receiver and linebacker played in a combined three games all year! Caragher faces a stiffer test in 2014 – namely life without star QB David Fales. The good news is Tyler Winston, the MWC Freshman of the Year, is back after snaring 58 receptions for 858 yards last season. In addition, RB Jarrod Lawson was the team’s leading rusher (788 yards) as a freshman in 2013. A deep front seven will anchor the defense.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Former Syracuse head coach and Michigan and Texas Defensive Coordinator Greg Robinson takes over as DC for the Spartans in 2014.
UNLV (Offense - 7/4 Defense - 6/2)
TEAM THEME: NOT MAKING THE GRADE
With the team’s average APR score (925) falling 5 points short of minimum NCAA requirements, the Rebs were given sanctions: no postseason competition, replace four hours of practice time with four hours of academics weekly and have five days of football-related activities a week instead of six. Not what the program needed after finally crawling out from under a 6-32 rock by reaching the Heart Of Dallas Bowl last season. Biggest losses on the field this year include QB Caleb Herring (2,718 yards with 24 TD’s and 5 INT’s), and RB Tim Cornett (1,284 rushing yards with 15 TD’s). HC Bobby Hauck’s mission will be to somehow keep this squad glued together.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The offensive line returns 136 career starts among six players with starting experience.
FSU, Miami picked to win ACC divisions
July 21, 2014
GREENSBORO, N.C. (AP) - Florida State was an obvious choice as a favorite in one of the Atlantic Coast Conference's divisions.
In the other one, the pecking order was nowhere near that clear.
Miami was the pick to win the ACC's cluttered Coastal Division despite receiving fewer first-place votes than two other teams.
''I think it's wide open. I think that's why everybody got votes,'' North Carolina coach Larry Fedora said. ''Anybody could win it.''
The league announced its predicted order of finish following a vote of 112 media members at its preseason media days.
The Seminoles were picked as the overall league champions by 104 media members and received 109 first-place votes in their division to put them far ahead of Clemson, which had three.
''I feel very similar to this team as far as how it's went from an attitude standpoint, to a work standpoint to getting the results and what you needed to this stage and where it's at,'' Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher said. ''So from that standpoint, I do feel very confident.''
It's hard to say who is the true favorite to face Florida State in the ACC championship game in December in Charlotte.
Four Coastal teams were separated by 44 points: Miami had 614 points to 597 for Duke, 571 for Virginia Tech and 570 for North Carolina.
Both the Blue Devils (33) and Tar Heels (27) received more first-place votes than the Hurricanes (26) - the Coastal favorites for the second straight year.
''I don't really get into all that. I'm trying to teach the team the opposite,'' Miami coach Al Golden said. ''We've got to teach this team to ignore the noise, to stay focused on the process and just turn this season into one-game missions. ... We're not really talking about Coastal championships and all that. We're talking about taking care of our business today.''
For Duke - which won an unlikely Coastal title last year - at least the Blue Devils weren't in the cellar.
In what had been an annual rite of July, the Blue Devils were the last-place pick in either their division or overall every year from 2000-2013 except one.
This is by far the highest Duke has been picked since the league split into divisions in 2005. The Blue Devils were picked third overall in 1983, when the ACC had eight teams.
''There's got to be a sense of accomplishment,'' Duke coach David Cutcliffe said. ''The thing that you want them to understand is that if you like the way this tastes, you're going to have to get better. You don't stay the same. You have to have those tangible things that we do better for us to have a successful 2014 team.''
Newcomer Louisville was picked third in the Atlantic, followed by Syracuse, North Carolina State, Boston College and Wake Forest.
''Were we picked to win it? Were we unanimous first? The bull's-eye is on us,'' new Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson deadpanned.
''I live in the real world, but (the low expectations are) a challenge,'' he added. ''It's not a huge margin for error this year. I get it. But it's still our challenge as coaches to put our guys in positions to be successful.''
Miami, Duke, Virginia Tech and North Carolina combined to receive all but three first-place votes in the Coastal. Fifth-place pick Georgia Tech had one, Pittsburgh had two and last-place selection Virginia had none.
Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston of Florida State was the overwhelming pick for preseason player of the year with 99 votes.
Clemson defensive end Vic Beasley, who had six votes, was the only player besides Winston to receive multiple votes for the individual award.
July 21, 2014
GREENSBORO, N.C. (AP) - Florida State was an obvious choice as a favorite in one of the Atlantic Coast Conference's divisions.
In the other one, the pecking order was nowhere near that clear.
Miami was the pick to win the ACC's cluttered Coastal Division despite receiving fewer first-place votes than two other teams.
''I think it's wide open. I think that's why everybody got votes,'' North Carolina coach Larry Fedora said. ''Anybody could win it.''
The league announced its predicted order of finish following a vote of 112 media members at its preseason media days.
The Seminoles were picked as the overall league champions by 104 media members and received 109 first-place votes in their division to put them far ahead of Clemson, which had three.
''I feel very similar to this team as far as how it's went from an attitude standpoint, to a work standpoint to getting the results and what you needed to this stage and where it's at,'' Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher said. ''So from that standpoint, I do feel very confident.''
It's hard to say who is the true favorite to face Florida State in the ACC championship game in December in Charlotte.
Four Coastal teams were separated by 44 points: Miami had 614 points to 597 for Duke, 571 for Virginia Tech and 570 for North Carolina.
Both the Blue Devils (33) and Tar Heels (27) received more first-place votes than the Hurricanes (26) - the Coastal favorites for the second straight year.
''I don't really get into all that. I'm trying to teach the team the opposite,'' Miami coach Al Golden said. ''We've got to teach this team to ignore the noise, to stay focused on the process and just turn this season into one-game missions. ... We're not really talking about Coastal championships and all that. We're talking about taking care of our business today.''
For Duke - which won an unlikely Coastal title last year - at least the Blue Devils weren't in the cellar.
In what had been an annual rite of July, the Blue Devils were the last-place pick in either their division or overall every year from 2000-2013 except one.
This is by far the highest Duke has been picked since the league split into divisions in 2005. The Blue Devils were picked third overall in 1983, when the ACC had eight teams.
''There's got to be a sense of accomplishment,'' Duke coach David Cutcliffe said. ''The thing that you want them to understand is that if you like the way this tastes, you're going to have to get better. You don't stay the same. You have to have those tangible things that we do better for us to have a successful 2014 team.''
Newcomer Louisville was picked third in the Atlantic, followed by Syracuse, North Carolina State, Boston College and Wake Forest.
''Were we picked to win it? Were we unanimous first? The bull's-eye is on us,'' new Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson deadpanned.
''I live in the real world, but (the low expectations are) a challenge,'' he added. ''It's not a huge margin for error this year. I get it. But it's still our challenge as coaches to put our guys in positions to be successful.''
Miami, Duke, Virginia Tech and North Carolina combined to receive all but three first-place votes in the Coastal. Fifth-place pick Georgia Tech had one, Pittsburgh had two and last-place selection Virginia had none.
Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston of Florida State was the overwhelming pick for preseason player of the year with 99 votes.
Clemson defensive end Vic Beasley, who had six votes, was the only player besides Winston to receive multiple votes for the individual award.
Pac-12 college football betting preview: Ducks doomed by defense again?
The Pac-12 is a conference loaded with serious college football playoff contenders, Heisman Trophy front runners, and big-name head coaches.
Oregon is the obvious favorite, but Stanford, UCLA, and USC should be hot on the Ducks’ trail if they falter. Six teams look like bowl locks as many as 10 may end up being eligible.
Arizona Wildcats (2013: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +2500
Season win total: 6.5
Why bet the Wildcats: Rich Rodriguez has guided the Wildcats to two straight 8-5 campaigns and is now dealing primarily with his players who are familiar with his system. Wide receiver Austin Hill will be back from a knee injury and the defense was vastly improved in RichRod’s second season.
Why not bet the Wildcats: Arizona was wildly inconsistent last season, with a 26-point drubbing of Oregon in between a home loss to Washington State and a 37-point setback at Arizona State. Quarterback B.J. Benker graduated. Included on the Wildcats’ schedule are games at Oregon and at UCLA.
Season win total pick: Over 6.5
Arizona State Sun Devils (2013: 10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +600
Season win total: 7.5
Why bet the Sun Devils: Arizona State surprised its way to the best record in the Pac-12 last season. Three-year starter Taylor Kelly returns at quarterback. The Sun Devils also return receivers Jaelen Strong and D.J. Foster and they get to play UCLA, Stanford, and Notre Dame at home.
Why not bet the Sun Devils: Although the offensive line is somewhat depleted, the main concern -by a mile - is defense. Nine of 11 starters are gone, including third-round draft pick Will Sutton (defensive tackle) and outside linebacker Carl Bradford. Arizona State’s defense already was not very good.
Season win total pick: Under 7.5
California Golden Bears (2013: 1-11 SU, 2-10 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +10000
Season win total: 2.5
Why bet the Golden Bears: Head coach Sonny Dykes is widely regarded as an offensive genius. He simply did not have the horses at his disposal in 2013, his first year at the helm. Quarterback Jared Goff is a highly-touted freshman who will have little pressure on him after last season’s debacle at California.
Why not bet the Golden Bears: Still, Goff is a freshman and may not make a smooth transition to the college ranks without much help around him. The Golden Bears also have a new defensive coordinator, so this is obviously a transition period. Six of their opponents finished the 2013 season in the AP top 25.
Season win total pick: Under 2.5
Colorado Buffaloes (2013: 4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +10000
Season win total: 4.5
Why bet the Buffaloes: Colorado improved in just about every statistical category under new head coach Mike MacIntyre in 2013, including wins (from one to four). Quarterback Sefo Liufau showed promise as a freshman and now has a year under his belt. Fellow sophomore Addison Gillam made 119 tackles at linebacker last season.
Why not bet the Buffaloes: Wide receiver Paul Richardson (83 catches, 1343 yards, 10 TDs) left early and was selected in the second round of the NFL Draft. The Buffaloes are still young and lacking depth. They are likely a year away from bowl contention, which will come when MacIntyre really has his own players in place.
Season win total pick: Under 4.5
Oregon Ducks (2013: 11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +115
Season win total: 10.5
Why bet the Ducks: Somewhat unexpectedly, quarterback Marcus Mariota is back for another season. A legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate, Mariota will once again be supported by a loaded backfield. The Ducks now have a year of experience under head coach Mark Helfrich and they get to play both Michigan State and Stanford at home.
Why not bet the Ducks: As usual, it’s the defense that’s a question mark. For the first time in 15 years, the unit is being led by a new voice following the retirement of coordinator Nick Aliotti. Stanford ran all over Oregon in 2013 and a whole host of key contributors have departed what will be a depleted defensive line.
Season win total pick: Over 10.5
Oregon State Beavers (2013: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +3300
Season win total: 6.5
Why bet the Beavers: Like Oregon, Oregon State has a signal-caller who opted to forgo the NFL Draft. Sean Mannion is back for his senior year after breaking the Pac-12 single-season record with 4,662 passing yards. The Beavers’ defense returns seven starters. They play four of their last five games at home, including versus Oregon.
Why not bet the Beavers: Oregon State will be working with a new offensive coordinator (Danny Langsdorf left for a role with the New York Giants) and must deal with the loss of receiver Brandin Cooks (first-round pick of the New Orleans Saints). Defensive end Scott Crichton also left early and only one starter on the d-line returns.
Season win total pick: Under 6.5
Stanford Cardinal (2013: 11-3 SU, 7-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +500
Season win total: 9.5
Why bet the Cardinal: The Cardinal have won back-to-back Pac-12 championships and head coach David Shaw - 25-4 lifetime in conference games - is back on board. Quarterback Kevin Hogan and all of his aerial weapons are also returning. The defensive line will be stocked full of seniors.
Why not bet the Cardinal: Running backs Tyler Gaffney and Anthony Wilkerson graduated and a whole host of stalwarts on Stanford’s heralded offensive line are also gone. Shaw may be back, but the Cardinal saw their coordinators and various staff members raided by other programs. The schedule is brutal, with road dates at Notre Dame, Oregon, and UCLA.
Season win total pick: Under 9.5
UCLA Bruins (2013: 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +400
Season win total: 9.5
Why bet the Bruins: UCLA beat just about everyone it was supposed to last year, aside from a home loss to Arizona State, and is coming off a 42-12 drubbing of Virginia Tech in the Sun Bowl. Do-it-all quarterback Brett Hundley is back for his junior campaign. The Bruins entertain Oregon, USC, and Stanford all at home.
Why not bet the Bruins: Departures from last season’s squad include wide receiver Shaq Evans and linebacker Anthony Barr. Even beyond Barr, the Bruins were further depleted at linebacker and along the defensive line due to graduation. Defensive coordinator Lou Spanos also left for the NFL’s Tennessee Titans.
Season win total pick: Over 9.5
USC Trojans (2013: 10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +500
Season win total: 8.5
Why bet the Trojans: Lane Kiffin is out. It’s hard to say that is not a good thing. Steve Sarksian is in. The jury is still out, of course, but he at least has ties to USC (coach from 2005-2008) and did well there in the past. Quarterback Cody Kessler is back in an attempt to soften the blow of receiver Marqise Lee’s departure to the NFL.
Why not bet the Trojans: Sarksian is going to run things differently, starting with a much more up-tempo offense. A veteran offensive line would facilitate such a transition, but instead the head coach will be forced to almost complete rebuild up front. The Trojans lost three of their four best pass rushers from the 2013 squad.
Season win total pick: Over 8.5
Utah Utes (2013: 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +6600
Season win total: 4.5
Why bet the Utes: Utah should be in good shape at both running back and receiver. Bubba Poole will once again anchor the backfield and Devontae Booker was explosive in spring practice. Dres Anderson was the Pac-12’s leading receiver last season. The Utes will host both USC and Oregon.
Why not bet the Utes: Quarterback could be a position of strength, but right now it is a question mark. Travis Wilson was plagued by physical problems in 2013. The defense has also been depleted by injuries and star pass rusher Trevor Reilly (8.5 sacks last year) graduated.
Season win total pick: Over 4.5
Washington Huskies (2013: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1400
Season win total: 9.5
Why bet the Huskies: Chris Petersen is one of the most well-respected coaches in the business after an extremely successful stint at Boise State. He takes over for Sarksian. Both the offensive and defensive lines remain largely intact. The Huskies play Stanford and UCLA at home, not to mention borderline guaranteed wins against visiting Georgia State and Illinois.
Why not bet the Huskies: Quarterback Keith Price is gone and it’s not clear who’s going to be taking over for Washington. The defense has major question marks in the secondary. Petersen may be a proven coach, but is some kind of transition period necessary before his program really takes off?
Season win total pick: Under 9.5
Washington State Cougars (2013: 6-7 SU, 9-4 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +2500
Season win total: 5.5
Why bet the Cougars: The Cougars won nine total games in the four years prior to Mike Leach’s arrival. In just two seasons under the offensive mastermind, they have already matched that number. Leach has the program on the rise and it could continue with experience at two of the positions Leach loves most: QB (senior Connor Halliday) and wide receiver.
Why not bet the Cougars: Washington State was one of the most one-dimensional teams last season, averaging only 53.4 rushing yards per game. Improvement will not come easy with three of five offensive linemen having departed. Star safety Deone Bucannon is also gone.
Season win total pick: Over 5.5
The Pac-12 is a conference loaded with serious college football playoff contenders, Heisman Trophy front runners, and big-name head coaches.
Oregon is the obvious favorite, but Stanford, UCLA, and USC should be hot on the Ducks’ trail if they falter. Six teams look like bowl locks as many as 10 may end up being eligible.
Arizona Wildcats (2013: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +2500
Season win total: 6.5
Why bet the Wildcats: Rich Rodriguez has guided the Wildcats to two straight 8-5 campaigns and is now dealing primarily with his players who are familiar with his system. Wide receiver Austin Hill will be back from a knee injury and the defense was vastly improved in RichRod’s second season.
Why not bet the Wildcats: Arizona was wildly inconsistent last season, with a 26-point drubbing of Oregon in between a home loss to Washington State and a 37-point setback at Arizona State. Quarterback B.J. Benker graduated. Included on the Wildcats’ schedule are games at Oregon and at UCLA.
Season win total pick: Over 6.5
Arizona State Sun Devils (2013: 10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +600
Season win total: 7.5
Why bet the Sun Devils: Arizona State surprised its way to the best record in the Pac-12 last season. Three-year starter Taylor Kelly returns at quarterback. The Sun Devils also return receivers Jaelen Strong and D.J. Foster and they get to play UCLA, Stanford, and Notre Dame at home.
Why not bet the Sun Devils: Although the offensive line is somewhat depleted, the main concern -by a mile - is defense. Nine of 11 starters are gone, including third-round draft pick Will Sutton (defensive tackle) and outside linebacker Carl Bradford. Arizona State’s defense already was not very good.
Season win total pick: Under 7.5
California Golden Bears (2013: 1-11 SU, 2-10 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +10000
Season win total: 2.5
Why bet the Golden Bears: Head coach Sonny Dykes is widely regarded as an offensive genius. He simply did not have the horses at his disposal in 2013, his first year at the helm. Quarterback Jared Goff is a highly-touted freshman who will have little pressure on him after last season’s debacle at California.
Why not bet the Golden Bears: Still, Goff is a freshman and may not make a smooth transition to the college ranks without much help around him. The Golden Bears also have a new defensive coordinator, so this is obviously a transition period. Six of their opponents finished the 2013 season in the AP top 25.
Season win total pick: Under 2.5
Colorado Buffaloes (2013: 4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +10000
Season win total: 4.5
Why bet the Buffaloes: Colorado improved in just about every statistical category under new head coach Mike MacIntyre in 2013, including wins (from one to four). Quarterback Sefo Liufau showed promise as a freshman and now has a year under his belt. Fellow sophomore Addison Gillam made 119 tackles at linebacker last season.
Why not bet the Buffaloes: Wide receiver Paul Richardson (83 catches, 1343 yards, 10 TDs) left early and was selected in the second round of the NFL Draft. The Buffaloes are still young and lacking depth. They are likely a year away from bowl contention, which will come when MacIntyre really has his own players in place.
Season win total pick: Under 4.5
Oregon Ducks (2013: 11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +115
Season win total: 10.5
Why bet the Ducks: Somewhat unexpectedly, quarterback Marcus Mariota is back for another season. A legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate, Mariota will once again be supported by a loaded backfield. The Ducks now have a year of experience under head coach Mark Helfrich and they get to play both Michigan State and Stanford at home.
Why not bet the Ducks: As usual, it’s the defense that’s a question mark. For the first time in 15 years, the unit is being led by a new voice following the retirement of coordinator Nick Aliotti. Stanford ran all over Oregon in 2013 and a whole host of key contributors have departed what will be a depleted defensive line.
Season win total pick: Over 10.5
Oregon State Beavers (2013: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +3300
Season win total: 6.5
Why bet the Beavers: Like Oregon, Oregon State has a signal-caller who opted to forgo the NFL Draft. Sean Mannion is back for his senior year after breaking the Pac-12 single-season record with 4,662 passing yards. The Beavers’ defense returns seven starters. They play four of their last five games at home, including versus Oregon.
Why not bet the Beavers: Oregon State will be working with a new offensive coordinator (Danny Langsdorf left for a role with the New York Giants) and must deal with the loss of receiver Brandin Cooks (first-round pick of the New Orleans Saints). Defensive end Scott Crichton also left early and only one starter on the d-line returns.
Season win total pick: Under 6.5
Stanford Cardinal (2013: 11-3 SU, 7-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +500
Season win total: 9.5
Why bet the Cardinal: The Cardinal have won back-to-back Pac-12 championships and head coach David Shaw - 25-4 lifetime in conference games - is back on board. Quarterback Kevin Hogan and all of his aerial weapons are also returning. The defensive line will be stocked full of seniors.
Why not bet the Cardinal: Running backs Tyler Gaffney and Anthony Wilkerson graduated and a whole host of stalwarts on Stanford’s heralded offensive line are also gone. Shaw may be back, but the Cardinal saw their coordinators and various staff members raided by other programs. The schedule is brutal, with road dates at Notre Dame, Oregon, and UCLA.
Season win total pick: Under 9.5
UCLA Bruins (2013: 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +400
Season win total: 9.5
Why bet the Bruins: UCLA beat just about everyone it was supposed to last year, aside from a home loss to Arizona State, and is coming off a 42-12 drubbing of Virginia Tech in the Sun Bowl. Do-it-all quarterback Brett Hundley is back for his junior campaign. The Bruins entertain Oregon, USC, and Stanford all at home.
Why not bet the Bruins: Departures from last season’s squad include wide receiver Shaq Evans and linebacker Anthony Barr. Even beyond Barr, the Bruins were further depleted at linebacker and along the defensive line due to graduation. Defensive coordinator Lou Spanos also left for the NFL’s Tennessee Titans.
Season win total pick: Over 9.5
USC Trojans (2013: 10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +500
Season win total: 8.5
Why bet the Trojans: Lane Kiffin is out. It’s hard to say that is not a good thing. Steve Sarksian is in. The jury is still out, of course, but he at least has ties to USC (coach from 2005-2008) and did well there in the past. Quarterback Cody Kessler is back in an attempt to soften the blow of receiver Marqise Lee’s departure to the NFL.
Why not bet the Trojans: Sarksian is going to run things differently, starting with a much more up-tempo offense. A veteran offensive line would facilitate such a transition, but instead the head coach will be forced to almost complete rebuild up front. The Trojans lost three of their four best pass rushers from the 2013 squad.
Season win total pick: Over 8.5
Utah Utes (2013: 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +6600
Season win total: 4.5
Why bet the Utes: Utah should be in good shape at both running back and receiver. Bubba Poole will once again anchor the backfield and Devontae Booker was explosive in spring practice. Dres Anderson was the Pac-12’s leading receiver last season. The Utes will host both USC and Oregon.
Why not bet the Utes: Quarterback could be a position of strength, but right now it is a question mark. Travis Wilson was plagued by physical problems in 2013. The defense has also been depleted by injuries and star pass rusher Trevor Reilly (8.5 sacks last year) graduated.
Season win total pick: Over 4.5
Washington Huskies (2013: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1400
Season win total: 9.5
Why bet the Huskies: Chris Petersen is one of the most well-respected coaches in the business after an extremely successful stint at Boise State. He takes over for Sarksian. Both the offensive and defensive lines remain largely intact. The Huskies play Stanford and UCLA at home, not to mention borderline guaranteed wins against visiting Georgia State and Illinois.
Why not bet the Huskies: Quarterback Keith Price is gone and it’s not clear who’s going to be taking over for Washington. The defense has major question marks in the secondary. Petersen may be a proven coach, but is some kind of transition period necessary before his program really takes off?
Season win total pick: Under 9.5
Washington State Cougars (2013: 6-7 SU, 9-4 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +2500
Season win total: 5.5
Why bet the Cougars: The Cougars won nine total games in the four years prior to Mike Leach’s arrival. In just two seasons under the offensive mastermind, they have already matched that number. Leach has the program on the rise and it could continue with experience at two of the positions Leach loves most: QB (senior Connor Halliday) and wide receiver.
Why not bet the Cougars: Washington State was one of the most one-dimensional teams last season, averaging only 53.4 rushing yards per game. Improvement will not come easy with three of five offensive linemen having departed. Star safety Deone Bucannon is also gone.
Season win total pick: Over 5.5
Big Ten college football betting preview: Value in middle of conference
The Big Ten may be a new-look conference with 14 teams now in the fold, but the end result should be a similar one with a few absolutely awful teams and a few that could contend for the national championship.
Urban Meyer and Ohio State are hoping to seize what Michigan State took from them last season: a conference title.
Illinois Fighting Illini (2013: 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +10,000
Season win total: 4.5
Why bet the Fighting Illini: Tim Beckman is heading into his third year as head coach, which has generally been a good one for the top dog at Illinois. Big things are expected of Oklahoma State transfer Wes Lunt at quarterback. Lunt will have Josh Ferguson (779 rushing yards) back in the backfield.
Why not bet the Fighting Illini: The Illini lost three key receivers, so they are not riddled with veterans who can help Lunt ease into his new role. On the defensive side of the ball, Illinois recorded a total of 15 sacks last season. The unit returns eight starters, but that might not be a good thing.
Season win total pick: Under 4.5
Indiana Hoosiers (2013: 5-7 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +10,000
Season win total: 5.5
Why bet the Hoosiers: Head coach Kevin Wilson is likely to do away with a two-quarterback system, so Nate Sudfeld will be able to get into more of rhythm. Regardless, the Hoosiers’ offense will be led by running back Tevin Coleman. With a star back and what should be Indiana’s best offensive line in years, Sudfeld will be in position to succeed.
Why not bet the Hoosiers: The Hoosiers are consistently a juggernaut on offense and nothing short of a disaster on defense. They allowed more than 38 points and 500 yards per game last season. A new defensive coordinator is obviously a wise move, but a transition to a 3-4 scheme may take some time. Indiana has only six home games after having eight in 2013.
Season win total pick: Under 5.5
Iowa Hawkeyes (2013: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1,400
Season win total: 8.5
Why bet the Hawkeyes: Iowa is on the rise after a four-win improvement to 8-5 last season. The team returns quarterback Jake Rudock, leading rusher Mark Weisman, leading receiver Kevonte Martin-Manley, and stud left tackle Brandon Scherff. The Hawkeyes do not have Ohio State, Michigan, or Michigan State on the 2014 schedule.
Why not bet the Hawkeyes: Six starters from the 2013 squad are gone, including all three linebackers and all-conference cornerback B.J. Lowery. The departure of NFL third-round draft pick C.J. Fiedorowicz leaves a void at tight end.
Season win total pick: Over 8.5
Maryland Terrapins (2013: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +10,000
Season win total: 7.5
Why bet the Terrapins: Maryland has improved from two wins to four wins to seven wins in three years under head coach Randy Edsall. His program will be inspired to get off to a fast start in a new conference and send a message to the Big Ten. Seven starters, including QB C.J. Brown, are back on offense and a whopping nine return on defense.
Why not bet the Terrapins: The ACC was bad last season outside of national champion Florida State, which may explain Maryland’s win total but also could leave the team unprepared for the spike in both competition and ruggedness in the Big Ten. The offensive line is somewhat depleted and the schedule includes dates with Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Michigan.
Season win total pick: Under 7.5
Michigan Wolverines (2013: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +900
Season win total: 7.5
Why bet the Wolverines: Head coach Brady Hoke managed to hire offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier away from Alabama. Nussmeier will have Devin Gardner back in action for the quarterback’s last hurrah in Ann Arbor. On defense, the Wolverines return all three starting linebackers and welcome prized cornerback recruit Jabrill Peppers.
Why not bet the Wolverines: This is the youngest team in Hoke’s four-year tenure at Michigan and the program seems to be stuck in neutral following an 11-win campaign in its first season under Hoke. The Wolverines allowed a nation-worst 114 tackles for loss last year and star offensive tackle Taylor Lewan has left for the NFL.
Season win total pick: Over 7.5
Michigan State Spartans (2013: 13-1 SU, 9-4-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +400
Season win total: 9.5
Why bet the Spartans: Michigan State is coming off a dream season in which it won the Big Ten title and the Rose Bowl. Quarterback Connor Cook (MVP of both the conference champion and the bowl game) is back, as is running back Jeremy Langford. The Spartans also boast one of the best duos of defensive ends in the nation.
Why not bet the Spartans: Six starters have departed last year’s defensive unit and just one starting linebacker returns. It’s hard to see the Spartans finishing second and third in the nation in total and scoring defense, respectively, yet again. The schedule includes Ohio State, Michigan, and road trips to Oregon and Penn State.
Season win total pick: Over 9.5
Minnesota Golden Gophers (2013: 8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +5,000
Season win total: 6.5
Why bet the Golden Gophers: Minnesota has improved from three wins to six wins to eight wins in three years under head coach Jerry Kill. He is building his program with defense (25th in the nation in scoring defense last season), just like he did at Southern Illinois and Northern Illinois. Much of the offense returns, including leading rusher David Cobb.
Why not bet the Golden Gophers: Philip Nelson transferred and quarterback Mitch Leidner has minimal starting experience. Wide receiver is likely to be a problem following the departure of Derrick Engel. Kill’s health issues are also a concern. Minnesota has to play Michigan and Ohio State from the Big Ten East.
Season win total pick: Under 6.5
Nebraska Cornhuskers (2013: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +550
Season win total: 7.5
Why bet the Cornhuskers: Quarterback Tommy Armstrong has a year of experience under his belt and he has two of the top skill players in the conference at his disposal in running back Ameer Abdullah and receiver Kenny Bell. Defensive end Randy Gregory led the Big Ten in sacks last season.
Why not bet the Cornhuskers: Bo Pelini has been solid in six seasons, but he has not taken Nebraska to serious national prominence or even legitimate conference contention. The pressure is on in major way right now. Only three starters return on defense. A tough schedule includes games at Michigan State, Iowa, and Wisconsin.
Season win total pick: Over 7.5
Northwestern Wildcats (2013: 5-7 SU, 3-9 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +4,000
Season win total: 6.5
Why bet the Wildcats: Northwestern went just 5-7 last season, but it lost two games in overtime and dropped two more by three points each. Seven starters return on defense and the offense once again features QB Trevor Siemian and RB Venric Mark. The Big Ten schedule lacks both Michigan State and Ohio State.
Why not bet the Wildcats: The Wildcats are coming off a bowl-less season after making it to the postseason in five consecutive years. An offensive line that was bad in 2013 doesn’t project to be much better. Injuries to the defense already mounted during the spring.
Season win total pick: Over 6.5
Ohio State Buckeyes (2013: 12-2 SU, 6-7-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: -110
Season win total: 10.5
Why bet the Buckeyes: Quarterback Braxton Miller is back and has speedsters all around him on offense. Urban Meyer has brought in another outstanding recruiting class that should be able to contribute immediately. Ohio State’s defensive line should be scary. The schedule is a friendly one aside from a road trip to Michigan State.
Why not bet the Buckeyes: Ohio State wrapped up its 2013 campaign on a two-game losing streak. Running back Carlos Hyde is gone. So are four starters on the offensive line. Linebacker Ryan Shazier has also headed to the NFL.
Season win total pick: Over 10.5
Penn State Nittany Lions (2013: 7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: N/A
Season win total: 8.5
Why bet the Nittany Lions: New head coach James Franklin was a proven winner at Vanderbilt. He inherits a rising star at quarterback in sophomore Christian Hackenberg. The road schedule is friendly and PSU gets to play both Ohio State and Michigan State at home.
Why not bet the Nittany Lions: Penn State is still under NCAA sanctions, so depth is a problem and the team is not eligible for the postseason. Franklin has a tough job ahead of him for those two reasons. The Nittany Lions also have only one healthy returning starter on the offensive line.
Season win total pick: Under 8.5
Purdue Boilermakers (2013: 1-11 SU, 3-8-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +25,000
Season win total: 3.5
Why bet the Boilermakers: Purdue has an experienced defense, led by Ryan Russell, Sean Robinson, and Joe Gilliam in the front seven. Track star Raheem Mostert is a home-run threat on offense. The schedule is a good one, with Michigan and Ohio State nowhere to be found and five home games to start.
Why not bet the Boilermakers: The Boilermakers were a horrendous 1-11 in their first year under head coach Darrell Hazell. Purdue’s best player in 2013 was punter Cody Webster. The offensive line remains a huge concern.
Season win total pick: Under 3.5
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2013: 6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +20,000
Season win total: 4.5
Why bet the Scarlet Knights: Former Maryland head coach Ralph Friedgen is in as offensive coordinator - a post at which he excelled with Georgia Tech. Rutgers returns all five starters on the offensive line. The running back duo of Paul James and Justin Goodwin is also back.
Why not bet the Scarlet Knights: The Scarlet Knights will be making a tough transition from the American Athletic Conference to the Big Ten. There is already a quarterback controversy with Gary Nova and Chris Laviano. Rutgers’ defense was historically bad last season (it also has a new coordinator on that side of the ball) and the schedule is the toughest in school history.
Season win total pick: Under 4.5
Wisconsin Badgers (2013: 9-4 SU, 9-3-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +450
Season win total: 9.5
Why bet the Badgers: With four starters on the offensive line returning and Melvin Gordon at running back, Wisconsin should boast one of the best ground games in the nation. The schedule is phenomenal. The Badgers’ toughest road game is at Iowa and they won’t face either Ohio State or Michigan State.
Why not bet the Badgers: Head coach Gary Andersen’s first season ended with a sour two-game losing streak. Personnel changes abound, with only a total of eight starters returning. Tanner McEvoy and Joel Stave are relative question marks at quarterback and the front seven on defense is 100 percent new.
Season win total pick: Over 9.5
The Big Ten may be a new-look conference with 14 teams now in the fold, but the end result should be a similar one with a few absolutely awful teams and a few that could contend for the national championship.
Urban Meyer and Ohio State are hoping to seize what Michigan State took from them last season: a conference title.
Illinois Fighting Illini (2013: 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +10,000
Season win total: 4.5
Why bet the Fighting Illini: Tim Beckman is heading into his third year as head coach, which has generally been a good one for the top dog at Illinois. Big things are expected of Oklahoma State transfer Wes Lunt at quarterback. Lunt will have Josh Ferguson (779 rushing yards) back in the backfield.
Why not bet the Fighting Illini: The Illini lost three key receivers, so they are not riddled with veterans who can help Lunt ease into his new role. On the defensive side of the ball, Illinois recorded a total of 15 sacks last season. The unit returns eight starters, but that might not be a good thing.
Season win total pick: Under 4.5
Indiana Hoosiers (2013: 5-7 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +10,000
Season win total: 5.5
Why bet the Hoosiers: Head coach Kevin Wilson is likely to do away with a two-quarterback system, so Nate Sudfeld will be able to get into more of rhythm. Regardless, the Hoosiers’ offense will be led by running back Tevin Coleman. With a star back and what should be Indiana’s best offensive line in years, Sudfeld will be in position to succeed.
Why not bet the Hoosiers: The Hoosiers are consistently a juggernaut on offense and nothing short of a disaster on defense. They allowed more than 38 points and 500 yards per game last season. A new defensive coordinator is obviously a wise move, but a transition to a 3-4 scheme may take some time. Indiana has only six home games after having eight in 2013.
Season win total pick: Under 5.5
Iowa Hawkeyes (2013: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1,400
Season win total: 8.5
Why bet the Hawkeyes: Iowa is on the rise after a four-win improvement to 8-5 last season. The team returns quarterback Jake Rudock, leading rusher Mark Weisman, leading receiver Kevonte Martin-Manley, and stud left tackle Brandon Scherff. The Hawkeyes do not have Ohio State, Michigan, or Michigan State on the 2014 schedule.
Why not bet the Hawkeyes: Six starters from the 2013 squad are gone, including all three linebackers and all-conference cornerback B.J. Lowery. The departure of NFL third-round draft pick C.J. Fiedorowicz leaves a void at tight end.
Season win total pick: Over 8.5
Maryland Terrapins (2013: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +10,000
Season win total: 7.5
Why bet the Terrapins: Maryland has improved from two wins to four wins to seven wins in three years under head coach Randy Edsall. His program will be inspired to get off to a fast start in a new conference and send a message to the Big Ten. Seven starters, including QB C.J. Brown, are back on offense and a whopping nine return on defense.
Why not bet the Terrapins: The ACC was bad last season outside of national champion Florida State, which may explain Maryland’s win total but also could leave the team unprepared for the spike in both competition and ruggedness in the Big Ten. The offensive line is somewhat depleted and the schedule includes dates with Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Michigan.
Season win total pick: Under 7.5
Michigan Wolverines (2013: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +900
Season win total: 7.5
Why bet the Wolverines: Head coach Brady Hoke managed to hire offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier away from Alabama. Nussmeier will have Devin Gardner back in action for the quarterback’s last hurrah in Ann Arbor. On defense, the Wolverines return all three starting linebackers and welcome prized cornerback recruit Jabrill Peppers.
Why not bet the Wolverines: This is the youngest team in Hoke’s four-year tenure at Michigan and the program seems to be stuck in neutral following an 11-win campaign in its first season under Hoke. The Wolverines allowed a nation-worst 114 tackles for loss last year and star offensive tackle Taylor Lewan has left for the NFL.
Season win total pick: Over 7.5
Michigan State Spartans (2013: 13-1 SU, 9-4-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +400
Season win total: 9.5
Why bet the Spartans: Michigan State is coming off a dream season in which it won the Big Ten title and the Rose Bowl. Quarterback Connor Cook (MVP of both the conference champion and the bowl game) is back, as is running back Jeremy Langford. The Spartans also boast one of the best duos of defensive ends in the nation.
Why not bet the Spartans: Six starters have departed last year’s defensive unit and just one starting linebacker returns. It’s hard to see the Spartans finishing second and third in the nation in total and scoring defense, respectively, yet again. The schedule includes Ohio State, Michigan, and road trips to Oregon and Penn State.
Season win total pick: Over 9.5
Minnesota Golden Gophers (2013: 8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +5,000
Season win total: 6.5
Why bet the Golden Gophers: Minnesota has improved from three wins to six wins to eight wins in three years under head coach Jerry Kill. He is building his program with defense (25th in the nation in scoring defense last season), just like he did at Southern Illinois and Northern Illinois. Much of the offense returns, including leading rusher David Cobb.
Why not bet the Golden Gophers: Philip Nelson transferred and quarterback Mitch Leidner has minimal starting experience. Wide receiver is likely to be a problem following the departure of Derrick Engel. Kill’s health issues are also a concern. Minnesota has to play Michigan and Ohio State from the Big Ten East.
Season win total pick: Under 6.5
Nebraska Cornhuskers (2013: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +550
Season win total: 7.5
Why bet the Cornhuskers: Quarterback Tommy Armstrong has a year of experience under his belt and he has two of the top skill players in the conference at his disposal in running back Ameer Abdullah and receiver Kenny Bell. Defensive end Randy Gregory led the Big Ten in sacks last season.
Why not bet the Cornhuskers: Bo Pelini has been solid in six seasons, but he has not taken Nebraska to serious national prominence or even legitimate conference contention. The pressure is on in major way right now. Only three starters return on defense. A tough schedule includes games at Michigan State, Iowa, and Wisconsin.
Season win total pick: Over 7.5
Northwestern Wildcats (2013: 5-7 SU, 3-9 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +4,000
Season win total: 6.5
Why bet the Wildcats: Northwestern went just 5-7 last season, but it lost two games in overtime and dropped two more by three points each. Seven starters return on defense and the offense once again features QB Trevor Siemian and RB Venric Mark. The Big Ten schedule lacks both Michigan State and Ohio State.
Why not bet the Wildcats: The Wildcats are coming off a bowl-less season after making it to the postseason in five consecutive years. An offensive line that was bad in 2013 doesn’t project to be much better. Injuries to the defense already mounted during the spring.
Season win total pick: Over 6.5
Ohio State Buckeyes (2013: 12-2 SU, 6-7-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: -110
Season win total: 10.5
Why bet the Buckeyes: Quarterback Braxton Miller is back and has speedsters all around him on offense. Urban Meyer has brought in another outstanding recruiting class that should be able to contribute immediately. Ohio State’s defensive line should be scary. The schedule is a friendly one aside from a road trip to Michigan State.
Why not bet the Buckeyes: Ohio State wrapped up its 2013 campaign on a two-game losing streak. Running back Carlos Hyde is gone. So are four starters on the offensive line. Linebacker Ryan Shazier has also headed to the NFL.
Season win total pick: Over 10.5
Penn State Nittany Lions (2013: 7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: N/A
Season win total: 8.5
Why bet the Nittany Lions: New head coach James Franklin was a proven winner at Vanderbilt. He inherits a rising star at quarterback in sophomore Christian Hackenberg. The road schedule is friendly and PSU gets to play both Ohio State and Michigan State at home.
Why not bet the Nittany Lions: Penn State is still under NCAA sanctions, so depth is a problem and the team is not eligible for the postseason. Franklin has a tough job ahead of him for those two reasons. The Nittany Lions also have only one healthy returning starter on the offensive line.
Season win total pick: Under 8.5
Purdue Boilermakers (2013: 1-11 SU, 3-8-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +25,000
Season win total: 3.5
Why bet the Boilermakers: Purdue has an experienced defense, led by Ryan Russell, Sean Robinson, and Joe Gilliam in the front seven. Track star Raheem Mostert is a home-run threat on offense. The schedule is a good one, with Michigan and Ohio State nowhere to be found and five home games to start.
Why not bet the Boilermakers: The Boilermakers were a horrendous 1-11 in their first year under head coach Darrell Hazell. Purdue’s best player in 2013 was punter Cody Webster. The offensive line remains a huge concern.
Season win total pick: Under 3.5
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2013: 6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +20,000
Season win total: 4.5
Why bet the Scarlet Knights: Former Maryland head coach Ralph Friedgen is in as offensive coordinator - a post at which he excelled with Georgia Tech. Rutgers returns all five starters on the offensive line. The running back duo of Paul James and Justin Goodwin is also back.
Why not bet the Scarlet Knights: The Scarlet Knights will be making a tough transition from the American Athletic Conference to the Big Ten. There is already a quarterback controversy with Gary Nova and Chris Laviano. Rutgers’ defense was historically bad last season (it also has a new coordinator on that side of the ball) and the schedule is the toughest in school history.
Season win total pick: Under 4.5
Wisconsin Badgers (2013: 9-4 SU, 9-3-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +450
Season win total: 9.5
Why bet the Badgers: With four starters on the offensive line returning and Melvin Gordon at running back, Wisconsin should boast one of the best ground games in the nation. The schedule is phenomenal. The Badgers’ toughest road game is at Iowa and they won’t face either Ohio State or Michigan State.
Why not bet the Badgers: Head coach Gary Andersen’s first season ended with a sour two-game losing streak. Personnel changes abound, with only a total of eight starters returning. Tanner McEvoy and Joel Stave are relative question marks at quarterback and the front seven on defense is 100 percent new.
Season win total pick: Over 9.5
Fade Alert - Ohio State
July 25, 2014
Since head coach Urban Meyer became head coach of Ohio State in 2012, the Buckeyes have posted a 24-2 record and that includes back-to-back 12-0 marks in the regular season.
Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.ag have posted a win total of 10 ½ (-120) for the 2014 regular season. While a lot of experts believe Meyer and company should dominate the Big Ten this season, I’m not one of them.
I believe UNDER 10 ½ is a great play and I also believe this Buckeyes squad is incredibly overrated.
Before going over all 12 of the Buckeyes' games this upcoming season, I would like to make some general observations about the team.
Defensively, Ohio State will field their worst secondary in 20-25 years on opening day against Navy. OSU returns only one starter (Doran Grant) in the defensive backfield. The other three DBs are greenhorns and will get torched all year.
Another glaring weak point for Ohio State is their offensive line. Again, I believe the Buckeyes will feature their worst offensive line in 20 seasons. Taylor Decker is the only returning full-time starter. He is moving from RT to LT in order to give Miller time to work his magic. Teams will pour through OSU's blockers and force Miller to make mistakes. The Buckeyes lost three great linemen to graduation in Andrew Norwell, Corey Lindsey and All-American tackle Jack Mewhort. The drop-off in protection will be profound.
Ohio State will also feel the loss of four more great players, in particular Ryan Shazier, Bradley Roby, Carlos Hyde, and Corey "Philly" Brown. All four were winners, plus Drew Basil was a steady placekicker and he also departs.
Again, it’s hard to ignore the 24-2 record the last two seasons but we can’t forget that the Buckeyes ended last year’s season with a two-game skid.
Some novice bettors might’ve forgotten that Miller was injured last season and fortunately Ohio State had a stable backup in senior Kenny Guiton. He’s gone and there isn’t much experienced behind Braxton this fall. If Miller were to be injured early in the season and unable to return, OSU could finish 7-5 or 6-6.
Let's look at Ohio State's 12 opponents.
Game 1 vs. Navy (at Baltimore): Quarterback Keenan Reynolds will burn the young OSU secondary. Reynolds is fast and shifty on his feet and accurate when passing for short gains. The Midshipmen return 15 starters and this is essentially a home game for them. Navy's secondary features four returnees with starting experience. Their offensive line is also a seasoned strength. Ohio State opened as a 19-point favorite and I believe Navy is the play. Ohio State will probably wear down the Midshipmen late but they won't win by 20. If Keenan Reynolds is hot and Navy can get to Miller two or three times, an enormous upset could definitely happen.
Game 2 vs. Virginia Tech: The Hokies bring back 14 starters. They will feature an unknown at QB. I would grade their offensive line with a B+ but the strength of this roster is the secondary. They have two 1st round draft picks in the defensive backfield. VT will treat this game as if it were the National Championship. Ohio State will probably be an 11 to 13-point home favorite at kickoff. I have no opinion on the point-spread because VT could fold early. Or, Frank Beamer may call a sterling game and the Hokies may get a few lucky bounces and leave Columbus in victorious fashion.
Game 3 vs. Kent State: Kent State has a terrible QB and no chance of winning this game. Ohio State will be favored by five TDs, maybe a little more. Ohio State has not lost to an in-state foe in a century. Kent State will mount no offense while allowing Miller to rack up TDs. Ohio State should be 3-0 or 2-1 after this contest.
Game 4 vs. Cincinnati: Ohio State will benefit from a bye week in the lead up to Cincinnati. The Buckeyes will be heavily favored and with good reason. UC always has a shot to win games with a gambler like head coach Tommy Tuberville calling the shots. Cincinnati also has the #1 QB prospect from three years ago in Gunner Kiel, who originally signed with Notre Dame. Look for OSU to go to 3-1 or 4-0 after this contest. UC's lack of blocking power will allow Ohio State to stop them quickly and force plenty of 3-and-outs.
Game 5 at Maryland: I believe this is the key spot on the Buckeyes' schedule. Most pundits don’t have much faith in Maryland this season. I do. The Terrapins have a diamond in the rough in QB CJ Brown. In between injuries, he has shown moments of brilliance. Maryland also has three outstanding six-foot-plus WRs, all NFL prospects. Ohio State will not move the ball steadily against Maryland. The Terps have nine starters back on defense. Ohio State will go off as a slight road favorite here. Look for Maryland to beat OSU soundly by avoiding OSU's front four with quick slant passes. Randy Edsall will best Meyer here. Ohio State falls to 4-1 or 3-2.
Game 6 vs. Rutgers (Homecoming): Both teams will be coming off bye weeks. Rutgers returns 16 starters but they will be outclassed in Columbus on Homecoming. Nova, the unpredictable Rutgers QB, will not evade OSU front seven. Rutgers' front seven is very light for a Big Ten school. They will get pushed around all day. Take Ohio State here. The Buckeyes may be laying 23 at home but they'll cover. Ohio State moves to 5-1 or 4-2.
Game 7 at Penn State: This game will be played on Oct. 25 in Happy Valley. This could be an extremely tough spot for OSU and bad weather is always possible. A hostile crowd is guaranteed as OSU has excelled at PSU in its last three trips there. Ohio State scored 63 against PSU last year and this will motivate Penn State. Look for new head coach James Franklin to get his first signature win as PSU's boss in this contest. PSU gunslinger Christian Hackenberg will burn OSU's secondary. Ohio State goes to 5-2 or 4-3.
Game 8 vs. Illinois: Ohio State will put up a huge number against Illinois. The Buckeyes may not cover, but they will win this game easily. Last year Ohio State scored 60 but still didn't cover. (They won 60-35 as 34 point favorites). Ohio State goes to 6-2 or 5-3.
Game 9 at Michigan State: I believe Michigan State is going to beat Oregon on Sept. 6. This could very well make the Spartans front-runners for the college football playoff. A win over Ohio State will stamp the Spartans' ticket to the four-team playoff. Look for QB Connor Cook to outplay Braxton Miller and for the Spartans to beat Ohio State as soundly as they beat them in the Big Ten Championship Game last year. Ohio State goes to 6-3 or 5-4.
Game 10 at Minnesota: Urban Meyer will not allow his team to fold. They are four touchdowns better than Minnesota and will win this contest by roughly that margin. OSU goes to 7-3 or 6-4.
Game 11 vs. Indiana: Ohio State destroys Indiana on a yearly basis. This year's contest may be very high scoring. OSU will win by 15-20. The Sudfeld/Roberson duo at QB for Indiana will put up points but not enough to beat OSU. Ohio State moves to 8-3 or 7-4.
Game 12 vs. Michigan: Ohio State was favored by 16 in Ann Arbor last year and won by one point on the last play of the game. This Michigan club is better and they enter this game with revenge on its minds. Ohio State may be deflated by not having a shot at the playoff. They could be beaten at home. This game is a toss-up, leaving Ohio State either 9-3, 8-4, or 7-5 for the regular season.
My prediction is that Ohio State will win eight games, nine perhaps, at best, and that’s only if Braxton Miller doesn’t get hurt.
The only problem with this winning ticket is that you have to wait five months to cash it.
July 25, 2014
Since head coach Urban Meyer became head coach of Ohio State in 2012, the Buckeyes have posted a 24-2 record and that includes back-to-back 12-0 marks in the regular season.
Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.ag have posted a win total of 10 ½ (-120) for the 2014 regular season. While a lot of experts believe Meyer and company should dominate the Big Ten this season, I’m not one of them.
I believe UNDER 10 ½ is a great play and I also believe this Buckeyes squad is incredibly overrated.
Before going over all 12 of the Buckeyes' games this upcoming season, I would like to make some general observations about the team.
Defensively, Ohio State will field their worst secondary in 20-25 years on opening day against Navy. OSU returns only one starter (Doran Grant) in the defensive backfield. The other three DBs are greenhorns and will get torched all year.
Another glaring weak point for Ohio State is their offensive line. Again, I believe the Buckeyes will feature their worst offensive line in 20 seasons. Taylor Decker is the only returning full-time starter. He is moving from RT to LT in order to give Miller time to work his magic. Teams will pour through OSU's blockers and force Miller to make mistakes. The Buckeyes lost three great linemen to graduation in Andrew Norwell, Corey Lindsey and All-American tackle Jack Mewhort. The drop-off in protection will be profound.
Ohio State will also feel the loss of four more great players, in particular Ryan Shazier, Bradley Roby, Carlos Hyde, and Corey "Philly" Brown. All four were winners, plus Drew Basil was a steady placekicker and he also departs.
Again, it’s hard to ignore the 24-2 record the last two seasons but we can’t forget that the Buckeyes ended last year’s season with a two-game skid.
Some novice bettors might’ve forgotten that Miller was injured last season and fortunately Ohio State had a stable backup in senior Kenny Guiton. He’s gone and there isn’t much experienced behind Braxton this fall. If Miller were to be injured early in the season and unable to return, OSU could finish 7-5 or 6-6.
Let's look at Ohio State's 12 opponents.
Game 1 vs. Navy (at Baltimore): Quarterback Keenan Reynolds will burn the young OSU secondary. Reynolds is fast and shifty on his feet and accurate when passing for short gains. The Midshipmen return 15 starters and this is essentially a home game for them. Navy's secondary features four returnees with starting experience. Their offensive line is also a seasoned strength. Ohio State opened as a 19-point favorite and I believe Navy is the play. Ohio State will probably wear down the Midshipmen late but they won't win by 20. If Keenan Reynolds is hot and Navy can get to Miller two or three times, an enormous upset could definitely happen.
Game 2 vs. Virginia Tech: The Hokies bring back 14 starters. They will feature an unknown at QB. I would grade their offensive line with a B+ but the strength of this roster is the secondary. They have two 1st round draft picks in the defensive backfield. VT will treat this game as if it were the National Championship. Ohio State will probably be an 11 to 13-point home favorite at kickoff. I have no opinion on the point-spread because VT could fold early. Or, Frank Beamer may call a sterling game and the Hokies may get a few lucky bounces and leave Columbus in victorious fashion.
Game 3 vs. Kent State: Kent State has a terrible QB and no chance of winning this game. Ohio State will be favored by five TDs, maybe a little more. Ohio State has not lost to an in-state foe in a century. Kent State will mount no offense while allowing Miller to rack up TDs. Ohio State should be 3-0 or 2-1 after this contest.
Game 4 vs. Cincinnati: Ohio State will benefit from a bye week in the lead up to Cincinnati. The Buckeyes will be heavily favored and with good reason. UC always has a shot to win games with a gambler like head coach Tommy Tuberville calling the shots. Cincinnati also has the #1 QB prospect from three years ago in Gunner Kiel, who originally signed with Notre Dame. Look for OSU to go to 3-1 or 4-0 after this contest. UC's lack of blocking power will allow Ohio State to stop them quickly and force plenty of 3-and-outs.
Game 5 at Maryland: I believe this is the key spot on the Buckeyes' schedule. Most pundits don’t have much faith in Maryland this season. I do. The Terrapins have a diamond in the rough in QB CJ Brown. In between injuries, he has shown moments of brilliance. Maryland also has three outstanding six-foot-plus WRs, all NFL prospects. Ohio State will not move the ball steadily against Maryland. The Terps have nine starters back on defense. Ohio State will go off as a slight road favorite here. Look for Maryland to beat OSU soundly by avoiding OSU's front four with quick slant passes. Randy Edsall will best Meyer here. Ohio State falls to 4-1 or 3-2.
Game 6 vs. Rutgers (Homecoming): Both teams will be coming off bye weeks. Rutgers returns 16 starters but they will be outclassed in Columbus on Homecoming. Nova, the unpredictable Rutgers QB, will not evade OSU front seven. Rutgers' front seven is very light for a Big Ten school. They will get pushed around all day. Take Ohio State here. The Buckeyes may be laying 23 at home but they'll cover. Ohio State moves to 5-1 or 4-2.
Game 7 at Penn State: This game will be played on Oct. 25 in Happy Valley. This could be an extremely tough spot for OSU and bad weather is always possible. A hostile crowd is guaranteed as OSU has excelled at PSU in its last three trips there. Ohio State scored 63 against PSU last year and this will motivate Penn State. Look for new head coach James Franklin to get his first signature win as PSU's boss in this contest. PSU gunslinger Christian Hackenberg will burn OSU's secondary. Ohio State goes to 5-2 or 4-3.
Game 8 vs. Illinois: Ohio State will put up a huge number against Illinois. The Buckeyes may not cover, but they will win this game easily. Last year Ohio State scored 60 but still didn't cover. (They won 60-35 as 34 point favorites). Ohio State goes to 6-2 or 5-3.
Game 9 at Michigan State: I believe Michigan State is going to beat Oregon on Sept. 6. This could very well make the Spartans front-runners for the college football playoff. A win over Ohio State will stamp the Spartans' ticket to the four-team playoff. Look for QB Connor Cook to outplay Braxton Miller and for the Spartans to beat Ohio State as soundly as they beat them in the Big Ten Championship Game last year. Ohio State goes to 6-3 or 5-4.
Game 10 at Minnesota: Urban Meyer will not allow his team to fold. They are four touchdowns better than Minnesota and will win this contest by roughly that margin. OSU goes to 7-3 or 6-4.
Game 11 vs. Indiana: Ohio State destroys Indiana on a yearly basis. This year's contest may be very high scoring. OSU will win by 15-20. The Sudfeld/Roberson duo at QB for Indiana will put up points but not enough to beat OSU. Ohio State moves to 8-3 or 7-4.
Game 12 vs. Michigan: Ohio State was favored by 16 in Ann Arbor last year and won by one point on the last play of the game. This Michigan club is better and they enter this game with revenge on its minds. Ohio State may be deflated by not having a shot at the playoff. They could be beaten at home. This game is a toss-up, leaving Ohio State either 9-3, 8-4, or 7-5 for the regular season.
My prediction is that Ohio State will win eight games, nine perhaps, at best, and that’s only if Braxton Miller doesn’t get hurt.
The only problem with this winning ticket is that you have to wait five months to cash it.
C-USA college football betting preview: Marshall mighty, but not smart money
Conference USA undergoes a facelift with three programs bailing for bigger and better things in the AAC and two new teams joining the ranks in 2014.
At the top of the C-USA sits Marshall, which is not only a big favorite to win the conference crown but also a sleeper Cinderella to sneak into the new four-team national title playoff system.
Marshall Thundering Herd (2013: 10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: -200
Season win total: 10.5
Why bet the Thundering Herd: Marshall is the clear-cut favorite in C-USA East this season, and the favorites to win the overall conference championship. The Thundering Herd return 14 starters, including quarterback Rakeem Cato. They play an extremely easy schedule and there’s a real possibility they go undefeated in 2014.
Why not bet the Thundering Herd: It’s no secret that Marshall will be very good this season, and you’ll have to pay a tax to bet it. The Thundering Herd may be double-digit favorites in every game and there will likely be a spot or two to fade Marshall as the pointspreads get inflated.
Season win total pick: Over 10.5
UTSA Roadrunners (2013: 7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +300
Season win total: 8.5
Why bet the Roadrunners: UTSA returns one of the most experienced teams in the country with 20 starters coming back. The Roadrunners have won 15 games over the last two seasons and they are set to breakout in 2014. Head coach Larry Coker won a national championship at Miami and has a great shot of getting the Roadrunners to the C-USA title game.
Why not bet the Roadrunners: Despite 20 returning starters, UTSA does not return its quarterback. Eric Soza was a three-year starter and his loss leaves a major hole to fill. The Roadrunners need to find a suitable replacement, but that’s not a given with inexperienced players battling for the all important QB spot.
Season win total pick: Over 8.5
North Texas Mean Green (2013: 9-4 SU, 10-3 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +500
Season win total: 8
Why bet the Mean Green: North Texas has a solid foundation with this being head coach Dan McCarney’s fourth year on the job. The Mean Green possess a strong offensive line and their ability to run the ball and control the clock may be enough to keep them competitive.
Why not bet the Mean Green: The team had a breakout season in 2013 when it went 9-4 and won the Heart of Dallas Bowl. But North Texas will be hard-pressed to repeat last year’s success as it returns just nine starters while playing a tough schedule with five of its final eight games on the road.
Season win total pick: Under 8
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2013: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +750
Season win total: 7.5
Why bet the Blue Raiders: Middle Tennessee has been a solid team over the last two years, winning eight games each season. It wouldn’t be a stretch for it to repeat that success in 2014, especially since it will have one of the best defenses in the conference.
Why not bet the Blue Raiders: Offense. MTU returns just five starters on offense and the quarterback situation is up for grabs. Head coach Rick Stockstill said he won’t name a starter until the Friday before the season opener and that doesn’t show much confidence in the players battling for the job.
Season win total pick: Under 7.5
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2013: 8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1,000
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Hilltoppers: Western Kentucky’s offense projects to be explosive this season with eight starters returning, including QB Brandon Doughty. The new head coach is Jeff Brohm, who was the offensive coordinator last year, so the transition should be a bit smoother than normal.
Why not bet the Hilltoppers: The team is in flux right now with their third new head coach in three years and moving from the Sun Belt to C-USA. The defense also figures to regress sharply with just four starters returning. Western Kentucky lost conference players of the year on both offense and defense to graduation. That leaves the Hilltoppers without their best players on both sides of the ball.
Season win total pick: Under 7
Rice Owls (2013: 10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1,500
Season win total: 6.5
Why bet the Owls: Rice won the C-USA title last season, so it comes into 2014 with a lot of momentum. The Owls return only 12 starters but they have an experienced roster overall. Rice’s best attribute is its running game and its ability to possess the ball and control the clock make the Owls very competitive in this conference.
Why not bet the Owls: It’s hard to envision Rice repeating the 10-win season of 2013. Rice’s defense also tends to get overwhelmed by strong offenses and that will be the case once again this season. The Owls also must keep QB Driphus Jackson healthy because if he goes down, the season is likely doomed.
Season win total pick: Over 6.5
Florida Atlantic Owls (2013: 6-6 SU, 9-3 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +2,500
Season win total: 5.5
Why bet the Owls: The team showed a tremendous amount of resiliency after its head coach and defensive coordinator quit midseason. Florida Atlantic won its last four games, so that was positive momentum heading into the offseason. Only 11 starters return, but the Owls could surprise in 2014.
Why not bet the Owls: Florida Atlantic has major question marks along its offensive and defensive lines coming into this season. The Owls lost a total of six starters on those two units, so the line of scrimmage is a big area of concern. The schedule is also tough with their strongest opponents all coming on the road.
Season win total pick: Over 5.5
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2013: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +2,500
Season win total: 5.5
Why bet the Bulldogs: Louisiana Tech should improve in its second year under head coach Skip Holtz. The Bulldogs also have a new defensive coordinator, Manny Diaz, who did good things at Texas and Mississippi State. The stop unit projects to be very good this year and that makes Louisiana Tech a sleeper in C-USA.
Why not bet the Bulldogs: Last season, Louisiana Tech relied too heavily on running back Kenneth Dixon. The quarterbacks were terrible in 2013 and the Bulldogs must get better production from that unit. The early schedule is brutal with four of their first five games on the road, including non-conference trips to Oklahoma and Auburn.
Season win total pick: Over 5.5
Old Dominion Monarchs (2013: 8-4 SU, 3-3 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +7,500
Season win total: 5
Why bet the Monarchs: Old Dominion is making the jump from FCS to FBS this season. The Monarchs return 17 starters from their eight-win team of 2013, so a successful transition isn’t out of the question, especially since they possess a potent offense that has averaged 36.7 points per game or more over the last three seasons.
Why not bet the Monarchs: With the move up in divisions, Old Dominion will face stronger opponents week in and week out. And that’s not a good thing for a poor defense. Over the last two seasons, Old Dominion has allowed an average of 32.3 points and 436 yards of offense per game.
Season win total pick: Over 5
UTEP Miners (2013: 2-10 SU, 2-10 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +15,000
Season win total: 4
Why bet the Miners: UTEP returns 15 starters in 2014 and the Miners will be in the second year of head coach Sean Kugler’s system. The team is built to be a physical running team and if the change in style takes another step forward, UTEP could be a litter better this season.
Why not bet the Miners: There’s still a lot of work ahead of UTEP, especially its implemented 4-2-5 defensive scheme. The defensive line is a key element for that type of defense, but the Miners will have three new starters along the line. The schedule will be difficult to navigate and while UTEP is better than last year, it may not be reflected in the win/loss column.
Season win total pick: Under 4
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (2013: 1-11 SU, 3-9 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +20,000
Season win total: 3
Why bet the Golden Eagles: There’s nowhere to go but up for Southern Miss in 2014 and big improvement is expected. The Golden Eagles return 16 starters and they will be in the second year of head coach Todd Monken’s system. Injuries decimated this team last season but if they stay healthy, they could pull a big upset or two.
Why not bet the Golden Eagles: Southern Miss is an ugly 1-23 SU over the last two years. The offense has been pitiful while only averaging 18.4 points per game and the defense has been a sieve, allowing 39.9 points per game during the long losing slump. The Golden Eagles are also minus-35 in turnover differential the last two years. It’s tough to back a losing team like Southern Miss until it shows improvement on the field.
Season win total pick: Over 3
UAB Blazers (2013: 2-10 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +25,000
Season win total: 2.5
Why bet the Blazers: Sometimes a new voice and a different perspective can change the fortune of a team, and that’s what UAB hopes will happen. The Blazers return 15 starters from a team that was competitive at times last season. UAB has underachieved in recent years, so maybe this is the year it can turn things around.
Why not bet the Blazers: UAB has won three games or less in each of the last three seasons. With new head coach Bill Clark short on experience (Jackson State last year), expectations are extremely low for the Blazers once again. Unless the defense shows significant improvement, UAB will repeat what it’s done over the last three years.
Season win total pick: Under 2.5
Florida International Golden Panthers (2013: 1-11 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +30,000
Season win total: 2
Why bet the Golden Panthers: Florida International was embarrassingly bad in head coach Ron Turner’s first season. However, with 17 returning starters, the Panthers have the experience to improve in 2014. The early schedule is favorable with their first four games at home, including a pair of FCS opponents to begin the season.
Why not bet the Golden Panthers: They lost by an average of 27 points per game last season, so they were hardly competitive. Florida International’s offense averaged a ridiculously low 9.8 points per game in 2013 and they were shutout three times.
Season win total pick: Over 2
Conference USA undergoes a facelift with three programs bailing for bigger and better things in the AAC and two new teams joining the ranks in 2014.
At the top of the C-USA sits Marshall, which is not only a big favorite to win the conference crown but also a sleeper Cinderella to sneak into the new four-team national title playoff system.
Marshall Thundering Herd (2013: 10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: -200
Season win total: 10.5
Why bet the Thundering Herd: Marshall is the clear-cut favorite in C-USA East this season, and the favorites to win the overall conference championship. The Thundering Herd return 14 starters, including quarterback Rakeem Cato. They play an extremely easy schedule and there’s a real possibility they go undefeated in 2014.
Why not bet the Thundering Herd: It’s no secret that Marshall will be very good this season, and you’ll have to pay a tax to bet it. The Thundering Herd may be double-digit favorites in every game and there will likely be a spot or two to fade Marshall as the pointspreads get inflated.
Season win total pick: Over 10.5
UTSA Roadrunners (2013: 7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +300
Season win total: 8.5
Why bet the Roadrunners: UTSA returns one of the most experienced teams in the country with 20 starters coming back. The Roadrunners have won 15 games over the last two seasons and they are set to breakout in 2014. Head coach Larry Coker won a national championship at Miami and has a great shot of getting the Roadrunners to the C-USA title game.
Why not bet the Roadrunners: Despite 20 returning starters, UTSA does not return its quarterback. Eric Soza was a three-year starter and his loss leaves a major hole to fill. The Roadrunners need to find a suitable replacement, but that’s not a given with inexperienced players battling for the all important QB spot.
Season win total pick: Over 8.5
North Texas Mean Green (2013: 9-4 SU, 10-3 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +500
Season win total: 8
Why bet the Mean Green: North Texas has a solid foundation with this being head coach Dan McCarney’s fourth year on the job. The Mean Green possess a strong offensive line and their ability to run the ball and control the clock may be enough to keep them competitive.
Why not bet the Mean Green: The team had a breakout season in 2013 when it went 9-4 and won the Heart of Dallas Bowl. But North Texas will be hard-pressed to repeat last year’s success as it returns just nine starters while playing a tough schedule with five of its final eight games on the road.
Season win total pick: Under 8
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2013: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +750
Season win total: 7.5
Why bet the Blue Raiders: Middle Tennessee has been a solid team over the last two years, winning eight games each season. It wouldn’t be a stretch for it to repeat that success in 2014, especially since it will have one of the best defenses in the conference.
Why not bet the Blue Raiders: Offense. MTU returns just five starters on offense and the quarterback situation is up for grabs. Head coach Rick Stockstill said he won’t name a starter until the Friday before the season opener and that doesn’t show much confidence in the players battling for the job.
Season win total pick: Under 7.5
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2013: 8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1,000
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Hilltoppers: Western Kentucky’s offense projects to be explosive this season with eight starters returning, including QB Brandon Doughty. The new head coach is Jeff Brohm, who was the offensive coordinator last year, so the transition should be a bit smoother than normal.
Why not bet the Hilltoppers: The team is in flux right now with their third new head coach in three years and moving from the Sun Belt to C-USA. The defense also figures to regress sharply with just four starters returning. Western Kentucky lost conference players of the year on both offense and defense to graduation. That leaves the Hilltoppers without their best players on both sides of the ball.
Season win total pick: Under 7
Rice Owls (2013: 10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1,500
Season win total: 6.5
Why bet the Owls: Rice won the C-USA title last season, so it comes into 2014 with a lot of momentum. The Owls return only 12 starters but they have an experienced roster overall. Rice’s best attribute is its running game and its ability to possess the ball and control the clock make the Owls very competitive in this conference.
Why not bet the Owls: It’s hard to envision Rice repeating the 10-win season of 2013. Rice’s defense also tends to get overwhelmed by strong offenses and that will be the case once again this season. The Owls also must keep QB Driphus Jackson healthy because if he goes down, the season is likely doomed.
Season win total pick: Over 6.5
Florida Atlantic Owls (2013: 6-6 SU, 9-3 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +2,500
Season win total: 5.5
Why bet the Owls: The team showed a tremendous amount of resiliency after its head coach and defensive coordinator quit midseason. Florida Atlantic won its last four games, so that was positive momentum heading into the offseason. Only 11 starters return, but the Owls could surprise in 2014.
Why not bet the Owls: Florida Atlantic has major question marks along its offensive and defensive lines coming into this season. The Owls lost a total of six starters on those two units, so the line of scrimmage is a big area of concern. The schedule is also tough with their strongest opponents all coming on the road.
Season win total pick: Over 5.5
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2013: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +2,500
Season win total: 5.5
Why bet the Bulldogs: Louisiana Tech should improve in its second year under head coach Skip Holtz. The Bulldogs also have a new defensive coordinator, Manny Diaz, who did good things at Texas and Mississippi State. The stop unit projects to be very good this year and that makes Louisiana Tech a sleeper in C-USA.
Why not bet the Bulldogs: Last season, Louisiana Tech relied too heavily on running back Kenneth Dixon. The quarterbacks were terrible in 2013 and the Bulldogs must get better production from that unit. The early schedule is brutal with four of their first five games on the road, including non-conference trips to Oklahoma and Auburn.
Season win total pick: Over 5.5
Old Dominion Monarchs (2013: 8-4 SU, 3-3 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +7,500
Season win total: 5
Why bet the Monarchs: Old Dominion is making the jump from FCS to FBS this season. The Monarchs return 17 starters from their eight-win team of 2013, so a successful transition isn’t out of the question, especially since they possess a potent offense that has averaged 36.7 points per game or more over the last three seasons.
Why not bet the Monarchs: With the move up in divisions, Old Dominion will face stronger opponents week in and week out. And that’s not a good thing for a poor defense. Over the last two seasons, Old Dominion has allowed an average of 32.3 points and 436 yards of offense per game.
Season win total pick: Over 5
UTEP Miners (2013: 2-10 SU, 2-10 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +15,000
Season win total: 4
Why bet the Miners: UTEP returns 15 starters in 2014 and the Miners will be in the second year of head coach Sean Kugler’s system. The team is built to be a physical running team and if the change in style takes another step forward, UTEP could be a litter better this season.
Why not bet the Miners: There’s still a lot of work ahead of UTEP, especially its implemented 4-2-5 defensive scheme. The defensive line is a key element for that type of defense, but the Miners will have three new starters along the line. The schedule will be difficult to navigate and while UTEP is better than last year, it may not be reflected in the win/loss column.
Season win total pick: Under 4
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (2013: 1-11 SU, 3-9 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +20,000
Season win total: 3
Why bet the Golden Eagles: There’s nowhere to go but up for Southern Miss in 2014 and big improvement is expected. The Golden Eagles return 16 starters and they will be in the second year of head coach Todd Monken’s system. Injuries decimated this team last season but if they stay healthy, they could pull a big upset or two.
Why not bet the Golden Eagles: Southern Miss is an ugly 1-23 SU over the last two years. The offense has been pitiful while only averaging 18.4 points per game and the defense has been a sieve, allowing 39.9 points per game during the long losing slump. The Golden Eagles are also minus-35 in turnover differential the last two years. It’s tough to back a losing team like Southern Miss until it shows improvement on the field.
Season win total pick: Over 3
UAB Blazers (2013: 2-10 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +25,000
Season win total: 2.5
Why bet the Blazers: Sometimes a new voice and a different perspective can change the fortune of a team, and that’s what UAB hopes will happen. The Blazers return 15 starters from a team that was competitive at times last season. UAB has underachieved in recent years, so maybe this is the year it can turn things around.
Why not bet the Blazers: UAB has won three games or less in each of the last three seasons. With new head coach Bill Clark short on experience (Jackson State last year), expectations are extremely low for the Blazers once again. Unless the defense shows significant improvement, UAB will repeat what it’s done over the last three years.
Season win total pick: Under 2.5
Florida International Golden Panthers (2013: 1-11 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +30,000
Season win total: 2
Why bet the Golden Panthers: Florida International was embarrassingly bad in head coach Ron Turner’s first season. However, with 17 returning starters, the Panthers have the experience to improve in 2014. The early schedule is favorable with their first four games at home, including a pair of FCS opponents to begin the season.
Why not bet the Golden Panthers: They lost by an average of 27 points per game last season, so they were hardly competitive. Florida International’s offense averaged a ridiculously low 9.8 points per game in 2013 and they were shutout three times.
Season win total pick: Over 2
WNBA
Dunkel
Indiana at Los Angeles
The Sparks play host to an Indiana team that is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games in Los Angeles. LA is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-5). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.
MONDAY, JULY 28
Game 601-602: Indiana at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 107.703; Los Angeles 117.698
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 10; 144
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 5; 150
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-5); Under
WNBA
Monday, July 28
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10:30 PM
INDIANA vs. LOS ANGELES
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indiana's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Los Angeles's last 8 games
Los Angeles is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
WNBA
Long Sheet
Monday, July 28
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDIANA (12 - 13) at LOS ANGELES (11 - 14) - 7/28/2014, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 103-137 ATS (-47.7 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
INDIANA is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
LOS ANGELES is 25-37 ATS (-15.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in a home game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 this season.
LOS ANGELES is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games in July games over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games against Eastern conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 15-26 ATS (-13.6 Units) after scoring 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 5-0 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 5-0 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Dunkel
Indiana at Los Angeles
The Sparks play host to an Indiana team that is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games in Los Angeles. LA is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-5). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.
MONDAY, JULY 28
Game 601-602: Indiana at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 107.703; Los Angeles 117.698
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 10; 144
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 5; 150
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-5); Under
WNBA
Monday, July 28
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10:30 PM
INDIANA vs. LOS ANGELES
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indiana's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Los Angeles's last 8 games
Los Angeles is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
WNBA
Long Sheet
Monday, July 28
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDIANA (12 - 13) at LOS ANGELES (11 - 14) - 7/28/2014, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 103-137 ATS (-47.7 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
INDIANA is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
LOS ANGELES is 25-37 ATS (-15.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in a home game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 this season.
LOS ANGELES is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games in July games over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games against Eastern conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 15-26 ATS (-13.6 Units) after scoring 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 5-0 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 5-0 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Preview: Fever (12-13) at Sparks (11-14)
Date: July 28, 2014 10:30 PM EDT
With their two All-Stars struggling, the Indiana Fever relied on their bench in an impressive road victory.
However, they'll likely need Tamika Catchings and Briann January to bounce back from disappointing performances Monday night in order to end the club's six-game losing streak against the Los Angeles Sparks.
The Fever (12-13) continued their strong road play with a 75-68 win at San Antonio on Saturday, improving to 7-5 on the road with their fourth win in five games away from home. Coach Lin Dunn leaned heavily on her reserves, who supplied 22 of the club's 24 fourth-quarter points. Lynetta Kizer scored a team-high 16 off the bench.
Advertisement
"We got a lot of help from our bench," Dunn said. "We wanted to try to stay as fresh as we could against them since they were on a back-to-back and keep the tempo up, keep pushing the ball. I thought it paid off for us the last five minutes."
Catchings and January were a combined 0 for 14 from the floor with one point. The All-Star duo combines to average 26.3 points.
"Coach said that we're only going to go as far as the bench takes us, and that's something that we want to keep doing," Kizer said. "Just keep working hard and having faith in each other."
Indiana's defense has also been strong of late, holding its last three opponents to an average of 64.0 points.
The Sparks (11-14) are a league-worst 3-9 at home, and have lost five straight at Staples Center since a 65-57 win over Seattle on June 24.
Candace Parker scored a season-high 34 points in an 86-78 win at Indiana on July 15, but Los Angeles followed with three straight losses - all at home - prior to Saturday's 77-69 win at Seattle.
Nneka Ogwumike scored 16 of her 22 points in the second half, while Parker tallied 13 of her 19 after halftime. The win pushed the Sparks' advantage over the Storm for the Western Conference's final playoff spot to three games and trimmed their deficit behind third-place San Antonio to a half-game.
It was also general manager Penny Toler's first win as coach since taking over after Carol Ross was fired on July 20.
"Changes happen in seasons and in teams all the time," Ogwumike said. "I think we've done a really great job of maintaining our composure so we can keep going out there and doing what we do best."
Los Angeles shot 49.2 percent and committed only 10 turnovers after shooting 39.8 percent and averaging 13.7 turnovers during its three-game slide.
Catchings scored 25 points in the first meeting on 8-for-16 shooting while January sat out due to a knee injury.
The Fever haven't defeated the Sparks since a 98-63 victory on July 31, 2011.
-------------------------------------------------------
WNB HEAD TO HEAD
Jul 15, 2014 Score ATS Results
LOS « 86 Cover: 5.5
IND 78 Over: 164
Tools: Recaps
Aug 16, 2013 Score ATS Results
IND 70 Over: 156
LOS « 86 Cover: 9
Tools: Recaps
Aug 8, 2013 Score ATS Results
LOS « 74 Cover: 12.5
IND 64 Under: 138
Tools: Recaps
Date: July 28, 2014 10:30 PM EDT
With their two All-Stars struggling, the Indiana Fever relied on their bench in an impressive road victory.
However, they'll likely need Tamika Catchings and Briann January to bounce back from disappointing performances Monday night in order to end the club's six-game losing streak against the Los Angeles Sparks.
The Fever (12-13) continued their strong road play with a 75-68 win at San Antonio on Saturday, improving to 7-5 on the road with their fourth win in five games away from home. Coach Lin Dunn leaned heavily on her reserves, who supplied 22 of the club's 24 fourth-quarter points. Lynetta Kizer scored a team-high 16 off the bench.
Advertisement
"We got a lot of help from our bench," Dunn said. "We wanted to try to stay as fresh as we could against them since they were on a back-to-back and keep the tempo up, keep pushing the ball. I thought it paid off for us the last five minutes."
Catchings and January were a combined 0 for 14 from the floor with one point. The All-Star duo combines to average 26.3 points.
"Coach said that we're only going to go as far as the bench takes us, and that's something that we want to keep doing," Kizer said. "Just keep working hard and having faith in each other."
Indiana's defense has also been strong of late, holding its last three opponents to an average of 64.0 points.
The Sparks (11-14) are a league-worst 3-9 at home, and have lost five straight at Staples Center since a 65-57 win over Seattle on June 24.
Candace Parker scored a season-high 34 points in an 86-78 win at Indiana on July 15, but Los Angeles followed with three straight losses - all at home - prior to Saturday's 77-69 win at Seattle.
Nneka Ogwumike scored 16 of her 22 points in the second half, while Parker tallied 13 of her 19 after halftime. The win pushed the Sparks' advantage over the Storm for the Western Conference's final playoff spot to three games and trimmed their deficit behind third-place San Antonio to a half-game.
It was also general manager Penny Toler's first win as coach since taking over after Carol Ross was fired on July 20.
"Changes happen in seasons and in teams all the time," Ogwumike said. "I think we've done a really great job of maintaining our composure so we can keep going out there and doing what we do best."
Los Angeles shot 49.2 percent and committed only 10 turnovers after shooting 39.8 percent and averaging 13.7 turnovers during its three-game slide.
Catchings scored 25 points in the first meeting on 8-for-16 shooting while January sat out due to a knee injury.
The Fever haven't defeated the Sparks since a 98-63 victory on July 31, 2011.
-------------------------------------------------------
WNB HEAD TO HEAD
Jul 15, 2014 Score ATS Results
LOS « 86 Cover: 5.5
IND 78 Over: 164
Tools: Recaps
Aug 16, 2013 Score ATS Results
IND 70 Over: 156
LOS « 86 Cover: 9
Tools: Recaps
Aug 8, 2013 Score ATS Results
LOS « 74 Cover: 12.5
IND 64 Under: 138
Tools: Recaps
WNBA Betting Recap - 7/21-7/27
July 27, 2014
League Betting Notes (from Monday, July 14 through Sunday, July 20)
-- Favorites went 11-6 straight up
-- Favorites/underdogs went 8-8-1 against the spread (ATS)
-- Home teams posted a 9-8 SU record
-- Road teams posted a 10-6-1 ATS record
-- The 'under' went 10-7
Team Betting Notes
-- Minnesota (20-6) has turned up the intensity, as they try to keep Phoenix (21-3) within hailing distance. The Lynx won all three games in the past week, and went 2-1 ATS during the span. They've won seven games in a row, and they're 6-1 ATS during the span. Next up is a date with Phoenix Thursday night at home.
-- Speaking of the Mercury, they have torn off 15 straight victories, and they have covered 10 straight games. They'll try not to look ahead to Thursday's giant tilt against the Lynx, trying to take care of business first against Los Angeles (11-14) Tuesday night in the Valley of the Sun.
-- Washington (13-13) has suddenly caught fire, winning four straight games, and they're 3-0-1 ATS during the impressive stretch.
-- Tulsa (9-17) picked up a rare win by taking care of equally disappointing Chicago (10-15). The Shock have stumbled in the win column overall, but they are 3-0-1 ATS in the past four.
-- The Sky had their meager two-game winning streak snapped in Tulsa, and they are now just 5-14 SU over the past 19 games with a 6-13 ATS mark during the stretch. That's disappointing considering they started out 5-1 SU/ATS.
-- San Antonio (12-14) have struggled lately, particularly against the numbe. The Stars are just 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS over the past six games. They'll take on the Sky Tuesday, so something's gotta give.
July 27, 2014
League Betting Notes (from Monday, July 14 through Sunday, July 20)
-- Favorites went 11-6 straight up
-- Favorites/underdogs went 8-8-1 against the spread (ATS)
-- Home teams posted a 9-8 SU record
-- Road teams posted a 10-6-1 ATS record
-- The 'under' went 10-7
Team Betting Notes
-- Minnesota (20-6) has turned up the intensity, as they try to keep Phoenix (21-3) within hailing distance. The Lynx won all three games in the past week, and went 2-1 ATS during the span. They've won seven games in a row, and they're 6-1 ATS during the span. Next up is a date with Phoenix Thursday night at home.
-- Speaking of the Mercury, they have torn off 15 straight victories, and they have covered 10 straight games. They'll try not to look ahead to Thursday's giant tilt against the Lynx, trying to take care of business first against Los Angeles (11-14) Tuesday night in the Valley of the Sun.
-- Washington (13-13) has suddenly caught fire, winning four straight games, and they're 3-0-1 ATS during the impressive stretch.
-- Tulsa (9-17) picked up a rare win by taking care of equally disappointing Chicago (10-15). The Shock have stumbled in the win column overall, but they are 3-0-1 ATS in the past four.
-- The Sky had their meager two-game winning streak snapped in Tulsa, and they are now just 5-14 SU over the past 19 games with a 6-13 ATS mark during the stretch. That's disappointing considering they started out 5-1 SU/ATS.
-- San Antonio (12-14) have struggled lately, particularly against the numbe. The Stars are just 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS over the past six games. They'll take on the Sky Tuesday, so something's gotta give.
Find NCAAF betting value in these injury-plagued teams on the mend
Sometimes last season’s stats and records can be skewed, especially when it comes to teams that suffered through a rash of injuries.
With oddsmakers discounting those programs based on 2013’s output,and key players getting healthy, these teams can quietly provide extra betting value in the early goings of the 2014 college football schedule.
We look at four now-healthy teams giving their backers a boost with the returning of key talents:
Florida Gators (4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)
In 2013, the Gators were the poster child for injuries. They lost 17 players to season-ending injuries. Former five-star recruit, QB Jeff Driskel returns to redeem himself under new offensive coordinator Kurt Roper.
Also on offense, the Gators get back three potential offensive line starters (DJ Humphries, Tyler Moore and Chaz Green) and WR Andre Debose (led Gators in receiving TDs in 2011). Despite the injuries, the defense was still among the best in the SEC and will only get better with the return of LB Antonio Morrison.
Maryland Terrapins (7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Since Randy Edsall took over, he hasn't been able to play with a full deck. Despite the injuries, Maryland has improved every year under Edsall. On offense, getting star wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Deon Long back will give Big Ten defenses fits.
On defense, corner Jeremiah Johnson returns from missing all but two games. The linebacker corps should also be healthier as they had to dig down into the third string at times last season. The Terps’ stop unit should tighten up after allowing 25.3 points per game last year.
California Golden Bears (1-11 SU, 2-10 ATS)
After going 9-3 at Louisiana Tech, Sonny Dykes 1-11 debut was the stuff of nightmares. In addition to losing over 50 starts to injury, the Golden Bears were also extremely young.
The defense gave up the most plays for over 20 yards in the FBS last season and one of the reasons was injuries. Defensive end Brennan Scarlett, safety Avery Sebastian and cornerback Stefan McClure all return from injury, hoping to erase the 45.9 points per game allowed by Cal in 2013.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (1-11 SU, 3-9 ATS)
Southern Miss has won just one game in the last two years, going 6-18 ATS in that span. In Todd Monken's debut season in 2013, the Eagles were ravaged by injuries, mustering an average of only 17.1 points while giving up almost 42 points per game.
The defense should be the strength of this team in 2014 and it will be spurred by the returns of NT Rakeem Nunez-Roches and LB Alan Howze.
Sometimes last season’s stats and records can be skewed, especially when it comes to teams that suffered through a rash of injuries.
With oddsmakers discounting those programs based on 2013’s output,and key players getting healthy, these teams can quietly provide extra betting value in the early goings of the 2014 college football schedule.
We look at four now-healthy teams giving their backers a boost with the returning of key talents:
Florida Gators (4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)
In 2013, the Gators were the poster child for injuries. They lost 17 players to season-ending injuries. Former five-star recruit, QB Jeff Driskel returns to redeem himself under new offensive coordinator Kurt Roper.
Also on offense, the Gators get back three potential offensive line starters (DJ Humphries, Tyler Moore and Chaz Green) and WR Andre Debose (led Gators in receiving TDs in 2011). Despite the injuries, the defense was still among the best in the SEC and will only get better with the return of LB Antonio Morrison.
Maryland Terrapins (7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Since Randy Edsall took over, he hasn't been able to play with a full deck. Despite the injuries, Maryland has improved every year under Edsall. On offense, getting star wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Deon Long back will give Big Ten defenses fits.
On defense, corner Jeremiah Johnson returns from missing all but two games. The linebacker corps should also be healthier as they had to dig down into the third string at times last season. The Terps’ stop unit should tighten up after allowing 25.3 points per game last year.
California Golden Bears (1-11 SU, 2-10 ATS)
After going 9-3 at Louisiana Tech, Sonny Dykes 1-11 debut was the stuff of nightmares. In addition to losing over 50 starts to injury, the Golden Bears were also extremely young.
The defense gave up the most plays for over 20 yards in the FBS last season and one of the reasons was injuries. Defensive end Brennan Scarlett, safety Avery Sebastian and cornerback Stefan McClure all return from injury, hoping to erase the 45.9 points per game allowed by Cal in 2013.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (1-11 SU, 3-9 ATS)
Southern Miss has won just one game in the last two years, going 6-18 ATS in that span. In Todd Monken's debut season in 2013, the Eagles were ravaged by injuries, mustering an average of only 17.1 points while giving up almost 42 points per game.
The defense should be the strength of this team in 2014 and it will be spurred by the returns of NT Rakeem Nunez-Roches and LB Alan Howze.
Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack
Over/under win totals for some college football teams........
11-- Florida State, Alabama, Oregon, Oklahoma, Ohio State
10-- South Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Baylor, Boise State, UCLA
9-- Auburn, LSU, Stanford, USC, Georgia, Clemson, Iowa
8-- Arizona State, Duke, Louisville, Miami, Michigan, Notre Dame
7-- North Carolina, Texas A&M
6-- Nevada.........4-- UNLV
Over/under win totals for some college football teams........
11-- Florida State, Alabama, Oregon, Oklahoma, Ohio State
10-- South Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Baylor, Boise State, UCLA
9-- Auburn, LSU, Stanford, USC, Georgia, Clemson, Iowa
8-- Arizona State, Duke, Louisville, Miami, Michigan, Notre Dame
7-- North Carolina, Texas A&M
6-- Nevada.........4-- UNLV
