Cnotes 2014-15 Bowl Betting Results - Trends -Stats- Best Bets Bowl Season Thread !

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Miami Beach Bowl 12/22
Memphis is in first bowl since 2008; Tigers were 12-48 last five years, are 9-3 this year; surprising coach Fuente has not been scooped up by bigger school. Tigers won last six games after 3-3 start that included loss at Ole Miss (24-3), UCLA (42-35)- they're 4-4 as favorites, 2-2 in games with single digit spread. BYU lost its QB for year, finished 8-4, winning last four games, mostly against stiffs. Cougars are 2-2 as underdogs, 3-2 in games with single digit spread. Favorites covered 10 of last 11 bowls involving C-USA teams. C-USA teams are 4-3 as non-conference faves. BYU won four of its last five bowl games, losing LY to Washington.




NCAAF

Monday, December 22

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: BYU vs. Memphis
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BYU Cougars vs. Memphis Tigers (-1.5, 56.5)

Game to be played at Marlins Park, Miami, FL

1. BYU’s explosive offense will get a stiff test from Memphis' defense, which ranks fifth nationally with an average of 17.1 points allowed. The Tigers did not surrender more than 20 points in any of their victories and ripped through the final six contests yielding 13.3 – all wins. The Cougars put up at least 42 points in each of their final three games.

2. Memphis and BYU had a trio of common opponents as the Cougars secured wins over Middle Tennessee, Connecticut and Houston. The Tigers were edged 28-24 by Houston on Oct. 11 but closed the regular season by ripping UConn 41-10 and eased past Middle Tennessee back in September. Memphis turned over the ball five times in the loss to Houston but suffered its only other two setbacks on the road against nationally ranked teams UCLA and Ole Miss.

3. Tigers quarterback Paxton Lynch set a school record with 28 touchdowns (18 passing, 10 rushing) and did not throw an interception during the six-game winning streak that closed the regular season. The Cougars endured a four-game slide and waved goodbye to their hopes of a New Year’s Six bowl when Christian Stewart took over under center for injured starter Taysom Hill and lost his first four starts. Stewart picked up his play in four wins closing the season, recording 14 TD passes and one interception in that span.

TV: 2 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The majority of books opened this game as a Pick, but that has moved to Memphis -1.5. The total opened at 57.5 with that dropping to 56.5.

INJURY REPORT: Cougars - WR Colby Pearson (Out, collarbone), RB Jamaal Williams (Out, knee).

ABOUT BYU (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS, 8-4 O/U): The Cougars are participating in their 10th straight bowl game and are coming in hot after Stewart’s 433-yard, five-TD performance in a win at California. BYU started the season with a dominant rushing attack led by Hill, whose dual-threat abilities resulted in 975 passing yards and 460 on the ground in his first four games, but had to rebuild around a more traditional pocket passer in Stewart. The Cougars also picked things up on the other side of the ball, limiting their last four opponents to an average of 16.3 points after surrendering 40.8 during the mid-season skid.

ABOUT MEMPHIS (9-3 SU, 7-4-1 ATS, 7-5 O/U): The Tigers’ hot finish left them on top of the AAC and sent the team to its first bowl since 2008. “It’s a big deal,” senior cornerback Bobby McCain told reporters. “It’s big for the city, it’s big for the team and the family of brothers that we have here. To have a 10-win season is something that’s never been done before. Now we just have to go 1-0 one more time and end it with a bang.” McCain is part of a secondary that recorded 14 interceptions during the regular season and held opposing passers to an average of 218 yards.

TRENDS:

* Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.
* Tigers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games on grass.
* Under is 6-2 in Cougars last eight bowl games.
* Under is 6-2 in Tigers last eight non-conference games.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 51 percent of bettors are on BYU.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAF

Monday, December 22


Total on the move in Miami Beach Bowl

The BYU Cougars and Memphis Tigers go head-to-head in the Miami Beach Bowl Monday, and the total has been adjusted earlier Sunday.

Most online shops had a total of 55.5 on the board heading into Sunday, but that has moved up and now most books are offering 56, while a couple have 56.5.

The total opened at 57.5 and was bet down earlier in the week, hitting 54.5 or 55 depending on the book.

 

[CNOTES]

Miami Beach Bowl Preview


December 21, 2014




Matchup: Brigham Young Cougars vs. Memphis Tigers
Venue: Marlins Park, Miami, Florida
Date: Monday, Dec. 22, 2014
Time/TV: 2:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Line: Memphis -1.5, Total 56


Memphis (9-3 straight up, 7-4-1 against the spread) has enjoyed its best season in more than a decade and returns to the postseason for the first time since 2008 when it takes on Brigham Young on Monday afternoon at Marlins Park in the Miami Beach Bowl.


As of early Sunday night, most books had the Tigers favored by two with a total of 56 for 'over/under' wagers. Memphis is -130 on the money line, while bettors can take the Cougars to win outright for a +110 return (risk $100 to win $110).


BYU (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS) is going bowling for a 10th consecutive year in the 10th season of Bronco Mendenhall's tenure. In the nine previous bowl games, Mendenhall has led BYU to a 6-3 record both SU and ATS.


The Cougars closed the regular season on a four-game winning streak, including a 42-35 win at California as a three-point road underdog in the finale. Senior quarterback Christian Stewart torched the Bears for 433 passing yards and five touchdowns. Jordan Leslie had five receptions for 155 yards and two TDs, while Mitchell Juergens hauled in seven catches for 107 yards and a pair of scores.


Stewart took over as Mendenhall's starting QB after star QB Taysom Hill went down with a season-ending injury in Week 6. Stewart struggled initially, throwing three interceptions in relief of Hill in a 35-20 loss to Utah St. Then the Cougars lost in Stewart's first three starts.


Since then, however, Stewart has been nothing short of sensational, posting a 14/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the four-game winning streak. For the season, Stewart has a 22/6 TD-INT ratio and four rushing scores.


Hill isn't the only star BYU lost to a season-ending injury. RB Jamaal Williams, who ran for 1,233 yards and seven TDs in 2013, went down for the year in a Nov. 1 win over Middle Tennessee by a 27-7 count. Williams never really got going this year, missing the season opener due to a suspension and most of two games with an ankle injury. In six games, he rushed for 515 yards and four TDs.


Other BYU injuries include senior starting safety Craig Bills, who won't play vs. Memphis due to a neck injury. WR Colby Pearson is also 'out' with a collarbone injury sustained in mid-November. Pearson had 16 catches for 270 yards and three TDs this season.


Memphis rolls into South Florida sporting a six-game winning streak. The Tigers won by double-digit margins in five of those six victories.


In his third season at the helm, it was clear early that Justin Fuente has his team poised for a breakout campaign. Memphis gave UCLA all it wanted and then some in Week 2, falling just short of an upset in a 42-35 loss as a 22-point underdog. Three weeks later, the Tigers gave Ole Miss fits before dropping a 24-3 decision that was much closer than the final score indicated.


Memphis caught the eye of the rest of the AAC when it went into Cincinnati on Oct. 4 and smashed the Bearcats by a 41-14 count as a three-point underdog. Sam Craft ran for 170 yards and one TD on 38 carries, while QB Paxton Lynch threw for 311 yards and two TDs without an interception. Lynch also rushed for 45 yards and a pair of scores.


For the year, Lynch completed 64.0 percent of his passes for 2,725 yards with an 18/6 TD-INT ratio. He also had 10 rushing TDs. During the six-game winning streak, Lynch has nine TD passes without an interception.


Brandon Hayes paced the team with 902 rushing yards and five TDs, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Keiwone Malone had 39 receptions for a team-high 480 yards and two TDs.


Memphis is fifth in the nation in scoring defense, allowing only 17.1 points per game. The Tigers have given up just 13.3 PPG in their last six outings.


BYU has been an underdog four times this year, going 2-2 both SU and ATS with outright wins at Cal and at Texas (41-7). Meanwhile, Memphis has been a single-digit favorite three times, posting a 1-2 spread record.


The 'over' is on a 7-2 run for BYU to improve to 8-4 overall on the season.


The 'over' has gone 7-5 overall for Memphis, cashing in five of its last seven contests.


Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

 

[CNOTES]

Bowl Breakdown - Part 2


December 21, 2014




1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5 · 6 Below is a quick look at the seven bowl games of the postseason scheduled from Wednesday Dec. 23 through Friday Dec. 26.

Boca Raton Bowl - Marshall vs. Northern Illinois
Tuesday, Dec. 23, 6:00 p.m. ET
Boca Raton Bowl Betting Line: Marshall -10

The Thundering Herd were one win shy of playing in a New Year's Six bowl, and it will be interesting to see how motivated they are going to be to play in this game. This isn't nearly as good of a Northern Illinois team as we are used to seeing, but it is a team which won a much underrated MAC this year.

Poinsettia Bowl - Navy vs. San Diego State
Tuesday, Dec. 23, 9:30 p.m. ET
Poinsettia Bowl Betting Line: San Diego State -2

Donnel Pumphrey is the star of the show for the Aztecs, and it will be interesting to see whether he or Keenan Reynolds does more for his team on the ground. The Aztecs clearly have the better of the two defenses in this game, and they have home field advantage on their side as well.

Bahamas Bowl - Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky
Wednesday, Dec. 24, 12:00 p.m. ET
Bahamas Bowl Betting Line: Western Kentucky -3

The Hilltoppers were awesome to watch this year, as they flew up and down the field and really had the ability to stop no one on the other side of the ball. Brandon Doughty is one of the better statistical quarterbacks in th nation, and he could shine in this one. Central Michigan's 7-5 record is a complete farce outside of its win on the road against Northern Illinois.


Hawaii Bowl - Fresno State vs. Rice
Wednesday, Dec. 24, 8:00 p.m. ET
Hawaii Bowl Betting Line: Rice -1.5

Fresno State has no defense whatsoever, and this could be a huge problem in this game against a Rice offense which really has the ability to light it up. The last time we saw the Owls, they had 76 points dropped on them by Louisiana Tech. Driphus Jackson will have to have the game of his life for Rice in this one.

Heart of Dallas Bowl - Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech
Friday, Dec. 26, 1:00 p.m. ET
Heart of Dallas Bowl Betting Line: Louisiana Tech -6

Illinois feels like a weird team in a bowl game this year. The Illini went 6-6, but they only just squeaked into a bowl game because of the weaknesses of the rest of the Big Ten. La Tech was just short of the MAC title, but this might be an even better game for it to try to prove itself against one of the power conference teams in the nation.

Quick Lane Bowl - Rutgers vs. North Carolina
Friday, Dec. 26, 4:30 p.m. ET
Quick Lane Bowl Betting Line: North Carolina -3

Expect to see a lot of offense in this one, as these two defenses both struggled quite a bit this year. Marquise Williams and Gary Nova don't look anything like one another, but they both hold the keys to their teams' success in this game at Ford Field.

St. Petersburg Bowl - NC State vs. UCF
Friday, Dec. 26, 8:00 p.m. ET
St. Petersburg Bowl Betting Line: UCF -2

The Knights are taking a big step backwards from last year's game against Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl, but this is still a big game for them after getting a share of the AAC crown this year. NC State ended up being a rather average team in the ACC, and it doesn't really have any signature wins which suggest to us that it can win this game.

 

[CNOTES]

Betting Recap - Week 16


December 22, 2014




Overall Notes


NFL WEEK 16 RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 5-10
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 8-7
Against the Spread 8-7
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 5-9-1


NFL OVERALL RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 155-78-1
Against the Spread 112-118-2
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 132-101-1
Against the Spread 115-115-4
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 109-124-4


Biggest Favorite to Cash


Green Bay (-11) wasn’t spectacular but it got the job done in its 20-3 road win against Tampa Bay.


Biggest Underdog to Cash


Washington (+7.5) upset Philadelphia 27-24 on Saturday at home. The Redskins were listed as high plus-260 (Bet $100 to win $260) on the money-line.


Home/Away


Through 15 games, the home team went 8-7 both straight up and against the spread.

Win Total Tickets


Three teams jumped ‘over’ the win total expectations set by oddsmakers in Week 16.


Green Bay (11-4) – Over 10
Miami (8-7) Over 7.5
San Diego (9-6) – Over 8


RESULTS


Road Trap


The last two weeks, NFL road favorites went 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS.


On Sunday, the home underdogs rebounded with a 4-2 record versus the number.


Two of the ‘dogs, Texans and Raiders, captured outright wins.


Green Bay – Win/Cover
New England – Win/No-Cover
Baltimore - Loss
Detroit – Win/No-Cover
Buffalo – Loss
Seattle - Win/Cover
Denver – Pending at Cincinnati on MNF


Point-Spreads Matter


New England (-9.5) trailed the N.Y. Jets 10-7 at halftime and rallied for a 17-16 road victory. This outcome was déjà vu for some bettors as the Patriots defeated the Jets 27-25 but failed to cover the number.

Detroit (-10) stopped Chicago 20-14 and actually had a shot to at least push but they settled for a field goal late when leading 17-14. Some bettors may’ve scored a middle on this game as the Lions opened as 4 ½-point favorites. The line jumped up after the Bears announced they were starting Jimmy Clausen at quarterback instead of Jay Cutler.


Carolina (-6) was another team that could’ve been middle. Earlier in the week, the Panthers were installed as one-point home ‘dogs. The books weren’t aware QB Cam Newton would play and once he did, Carolina was bumped up. The Panthers won 17-13 and failed to cover.


Miami (-4.5) captured a wild 37-35 shootout victory over Minnesota with a safety late in the fourth quarter. The Dolphins actually led this game 28-20 but allowed the Vikings to tie the game with key penalties


NFC South Showdown


Atlanta’s 30-14 victory over New Orleans 30-14 as six-point underdogs sets up a preliminary playoff game against Carolina (6-9-1) next Sunday from the Georgia Dome. The winner will claim the NFC South and be the No. 4 seed in the NFC playoffs.


Not so Super


Prior to this season, the Saints were 16-4 SU and 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 games played at the Mercedes Benz Superdome. This season, New Orleans started 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) before ending the season with five consecutive losses.


Playoff Notes


Below is a quick look at the possible seeds for the 2014-15 playoffs.


AFC


1) New England/Denver
2) New England/Denver
3) Indianapolis/AFC North (Pittsburgh-Cincinnati)
4) Indianapolis/AFC North (Pittsburgh-Cincinnati)
5) AFC North (Pittsburgh-Cincinnati)
6) San Diego, Baltimore, Houston or Kansas City


NFC


1) NFC West (Seattle/Arizona) or NFC North (Detroit/Green Bay)
2) NFC West (Seattle/Arizona) or NFC North (Detroit/Green Bay)
3) Dallas Cowboys
4) NFC South (Atlanta-Carolina)
5) NFC West (Seattle/Arizona) or NFC North (Detroit/Green Bay)
6) NFC West (Seattle/Arizona) or NFC North (Detroit/Green Bay)




Totals


Sunday’s early action saw the ‘under’ go 7-1 in the first-half and the results stayed true for the game outcomes too (7-1).


Overall, the 'under' owns a 9-5-1 mark in Week 16.


The lone occurred in the Miami-Minnesota matchup as the Dolphins nipped the Vikings 37-35. The two teams combined for 41 of their 72 points in the final quarter.


Detroit saw the ‘under’ improve to 7-0 in its road games this season. Next Sunday, the Lions visit the Packers.


The Steelers finally saw an ‘under’ ticket cash at Heinz Field. The ‘over’ was 6-0 in the first six regular season games played at this venue. Next Sunday, Pittsburgh hosts Cincinnati.


Tampa Bay saw another ‘under’ ticket connect (6-1) at home. The Buccaneers were held to three points in their loss to the Packers and haven’t scored more than 17 at home this season.

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Bowls


December 22, 2014


TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23


Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. MARSHALL (Boca Raton Bowl)...
NIU covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 this season but is 2-5 vs. spread last seven bowls. Huskies also 9-4 last 13 as dog, but note poor MAC bowls marks lately (including 0-5 LY). Herd no covers last three this season but has covered last three bowls.
Slight to NIU, based on team trends.

NAVY vs. SAN DIEGO STATE (Poinsettia Bowl)...
Mids 19-9 as dog since 2009, though were only 5-7 vs. spread this season. Niumatalolo 2-3 vs. line in bowls (lost 2010 Poinsettia to Brady Hoke's SDSU). Aztecs 1-2 vs. line in bowls for Rocky Long since 2011. Note SDSU "under" 11-1 this season and Navy "under" 9-4 last 13 since late 2013.
"Under," based on "totals" trends.




WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 24


Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY (Bahamas Bowl)...
Note MAC teams 0-5 vs. line in bowls LY and 8-19 since 2008. Chips 2-6 vs. spread last two seasons vs. non-MAC foes. WKU covered last three in 2014 and was 4-1-1 vs. line last six this season. Teams met in 2011 Little Caesars Bowl (CMU won 24-21).
Slight to WKU, based on team trends.

FRESNO STATE vs. RICE (Sheraton Hawaii Bowl)...
Fresno has been rocked in its last two bowls with Tim DeRuyter. Bulldogs 2-7 vs. line last nine vs. non-MW foes. Rice 8-4 vs. spread this season 22-11 last 33 overall vs. number, and Owls have covered 4 of last 5 after SU loss.
Rice, based on team trends.




FRIDAY, DECEMBER 26


Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

ILLINOIS vs. LA TECH (Zaxby's Dallas Bowl)...
Skip Holtz redemption this season, 10-3 vs. line with la tech, also 7-1 vs. spread away from Ruston. Also a redeeming season for IU's Tim Beckman, though Illini only 5-7 vs. line, and 3-6 vs. points last nine away from home. Illinois 4-11 vs. spread away from Champaign-Urbana for Beckman since 2012.
La Tech, based on team trends.

RUTGERS vs. NORTH CAROLINA (Quick Lane Detroit Bowl)...
Rutgers 5-3 as dog this season, 15-8 last 23 receiving points since 2011. Though a loser in finale vs. NC State, Tar Heels closed fast again in 2014, covering 5 of last 7 after covering 7 of last 8 a year ago. UNC also 6-3 vs. spread last nine away from Chapel Hill for Fedora.
Slight to UNC, based on team trends.

NC STATE vs. UCF (Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl)...
O'Leary has won and covered last three bowls (two of those as a dog). Knights closed fast this season, covering last four and 8 of last 10. Pack covered 4 of 5 away from Raleigh this season.
Slight to UCF, based on team trends.




SATURDAY, DECEMBER 27


Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

VIRGINIA TECH vs. CINCINNATI (Military Bowl)...
Beamer's 22nd straight bowl for VPI, he's 9-11-1 vs. spread the previous 21 bowls since '93 season. But Hokies only 5-7 vs. line TY and 17-34-1 vs. number since late 2010. Tuberville 7-0 SU, 6-0-1 vs. line down stretch with Bearcats this season. Teams met in 2009 Orange Bowl (Beamer a 20-7 winner over Brian Kelly's Cincy).
Cincy, based on recent trends.

DUKE vs. ARIZONA STATE (Sun Bowl)...
Duke third straight bowl for first time. Todd Graham 4-1 SU and vs. lien in bowls, but ASU only 5-7 vs. line away from Tempe past two seasons. Blue Devils 18-7-1 vs. line since 2013, and 7-3 as dog over that span. David Cutcliffe also 5-1 vs. line in bowls with Ole Miss & Duke.
Duke, based on team trends.

MIAMI-FLA vs. SOUTH CAROLINA (Duck Commander Independence Bowl)...
Canes 1-5 vs. line last six bowls, and Miami no covers last three this season. Canes also 2-8 vs. number last 10 away from home, and 6-14 overall last 20 vs. spread since early 2013. Spurrier has won his last three bowls and is 9-5-1 vs. points last 15 vs. non-SEC foes and 15-8 last 23 as dog since 2009.
South Carolina, based on team trends.

PENN STATE vs. BOSTON COLLEGE (Yankee Pinstripe Bowl)...
Penn State only 2-6 vs. spread down the stretch in 2014. Also 1-4 vs. spread away from home and 2-9 vs. number last 11 away from Happy Valley. BC covered 7 of last 10 this season and is 14-8 vs. number last 22 on board.
BC, based on team trends.

NEBRASKA vs. SOUTHERN CAL (Holiday Bowl)...
Interestingly, this is SC's first-ever appearance in the Holiday Bowl. Sarkisian 3-1 SU and vs. line in bowls with U-Dub. But Trojans only 2-4 vs. line away from home TY. Huskers 5-2 as dog since last season and 5-4 vs. line last nine bowls.
Slight to Nebraska, based on team trends.

 

[CNOTES]

Boca Raton Bowl


December 23, 2014




NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES (11-2) vs. MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD (12-1)


Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium - Boca Raton, FL
Kickoff: Tuesday, 6:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Marshall -10, Total: 67


Marshall looks to extend its bowl game winning streak to four when it takes on Northern Illinois in the inaugural Boca Raton Bowl on Tuesday night.


The Huskies had a huge year as they finished the season with seven consecutive SU wins (4-3 ATS) and they capped it all off with a big 51-17 victory as 5-point favorites over Bowling Green in the MAC Championship game. Overall they had three victories when they were considered the underdog (Northwestern, Ohio and Western Michigan), as they defeated opponents by an average of 12.7 PPG during the winning streak. NIU was one of the better programs with ball security, as it turned the ball over a mere 13 times on the year. This will mark the seventh consecutive season that the school reaches a bowl game, but it has lost its previous two bowls (both SU and ATS) with defeats by an average of 14.0 PPG.


The Thundering Herd nearly had a perfect season, as they started out the year with 11 straight wins SU (7-3-1 ATS) where they defeated their opponents by 28.5 PPG. Marshall did not have a tough schedule though, as it was favored in every one of its contests and was able to come away with a C-USA title after narrowly defeating 8.5-point underdog Louisiana Tech in the championship game by a score of 26-23. They Herd have been tremendous in their past three trips to a bowl game, which came in 2009, 2011 and 2013, as they won each time (SU and ATS), including a 31-20 victory in the Eagle Bank Bowl as 2.5-point favorites against Maryland last season.


These teams have met just twice since 1992 (1999 and 2001) with the Thundering Herd winning each time (both SU and ATS). Trends show that Northern Illinois is 6-0 ATS after a win by 21 or more points in the past two seasons, while Marshall is a solid 8-2 ATS (80%) in games played on a neutral field since 1992.


The injury report has no significant omissions from the Huskies side of the ball, while HB Devon Johnson (shoulder) is expected to play in this one for the Thundering Herd.


The Huskies’ rushing game is their calling card, as they rank 14th in the nation with 252.9 YPG on the ground and add a mere 189.5 YPG through the air as they score 32.2 PPG.


QB Drew Hare (2,097 pass yards, 17 TD, 2 INT) was solid when called upon as a passer this year, and hit on 59.9% of his passes for 7.0 YPA with his second pick coming in the final game of the season. He adds a nice element with his legs also, with 850 yards (5.9 YPC) and eight rushing touchdowns.


HB Cameron Stingily (895 rush yards, 13 TD) gained 5.1 YPC on the season and was a scoring machine down the stretch as he got into the end zone 11 times over the final seven contests. He had four performances of 100+ rushing yards, including and 116 yards (7.7 YPC) and 2 TD in the MAC Championship game.


WR Da’Ron Brown (1,002 rec yards, 6 TD) was phenomenal in what is a rush-heavy offense, as he hit triple-digits in receiving yards three times and averaged 15.7 yards per catch. Brown had at least five receptions in 7-of-13 games, but had just one touchdown over the past six.


The defense for this program allowed an average of 23.6 PPG (36th in nation) as it allowed 158.5 YPG on the ground. DB Marlon Moore (93 tackles, 1 INT) and DL Jason Meehan (7 sacks, 48 tackles) do a great job of leading this side of the ball and will need to step it up in this tough matchup.


Marshall was one of the most explosive offenses in the nation this season while ranking amongst the top-20 in both passing (287.8 YPG, 18th in FBS) and rushing (275.6 YPG, 7th in nation) as it scored 45.1 PPG (5th in FBS).


QB Rakeem Cato (3,622 pass yards, 37 TD, 13 INT) had some incredible performances this season while averaging 279 YPG through the air and 8.8 YPA. He’s a big threat in the rushing game as well, rumbling for 457 yards (5.4 YPC) and 6 TD, including one game where he surpassed 100 yards on the ground.


HB Devon Johnson (1,636 rush yards, 16 TD) averaged an amazing 8.6 YPC, as he eclipsed the 100-yard mark in nine of his 12 games. He had four multi-TD performances on the year too, but could not get into the end zone in any of the final three games as he was dealing with injuries.


WR Tommy Shuler (953 rec yards, 8 TD) was the primary target for Cato, as he totaled 27 catches over the final three contests of the season where he averaged 116 YPG. The Herd have plenty of other red-zone threats besides Shuler on the team, as eight different players caught multiple TD passes over the course of the year.


They were solid on the defensive side of things as well while giving up a mere 20.8 PPG to their opponents (22nd in FBS), as they did particularly well against the pass (194.7 YPG, 25th in nation). LBs Neville Hewitt (114 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Jermaine Holmes (96 tackles, 1 sack) along with DL Arnold Blackmon (8 sacks, 38 tackles) have done a great job giving their opposition trouble all season, and it should be no different come Tuesday.

 

[CNOTES]

Tuesday's Bowl Tips


December 23, 2014




**Marshall vs. Northern Illinois**


-- Conference USA and the Mid-America Conference clash Tuesday on the campus of Florida Atlantic University in the inaugural Boca Raton Bowl. The game features Marshall and Northern Illinois, two teams which combined for 23 wins and just three losses during the regular season.


-- Marshall, unbeaten for a majority of the season, opened as a 10.5-point favorite, with the line dropping slighly to 10 at most shops as of Tuesday morning. The total for 'over/under' opened between 64 and 64.5, but has risen as high as 67.5.


-- Marshall (12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS) opened the season with 11 straight victories before a 67-66 setback against Western Kentucky on Nov. 28. The team also opened the year by covering eight of their past 10 games, but they enter the Boca Bowl having failed to cover their past three. Rakeem Cato and the Thundering Herd faced just three bowl teams during the regular season, going 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS. However, they were able to win last time out in the Conference USA championship game, taking care of Louisiana Tech by a 26-23 count. Cato threw for 308 yards, and he has four straight games with 284 or more passing yards.


-- Cato isn't the only offensive star on the Herd. Marshall ranked fifth in scoring (45.1 points per game) thanks to their quarterback, as well as WR Tommy Shuler, TE Eric Frohnapfel and RB Devon Johnson. Shuler posted 74 catches this season, while Frohnapfel checked in with 35 grabs. The star wideout has averaged nine catches for 116 yards over the past three games, so Northern Illinois will certainly be trying to key on him.


-- Northern Illinois (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS) was impressive down the stretch, winning seven consecutive games to wrap up the regular seaosn, and they covered their final three games and four of the final five. NIU crushed Bowling Green in the MAC Championship game Dec. 5 by a 51-17 count. That's the same Falcons squad which represented the MAC well with a victory over South Alabama in the Raycom Media Camellia Bowl Saturday. In five games against bowl teams, NIU went 3-2 SU/2-3 ATS, but they also won road games at Northwestern and UNLV. During their seven-game win streak they have won by an average of 12.7 PPG.


-- The Huskies were impressive running the football this season, ranking 14th in the nation. Behemoth RB Cameron Stingily led the team with 895 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns, doing a majority of his damage down the stretch. QB Drew Hare had big shoes to fill for the departed Jordan Lynch, but he did admirably. He rushed for 850 yards and eight touchdowns to finish second on the team. Stingily was particularly impressive in the MAC title game, rolling up 116 rushing yards with two scores, while Hare tossed a pair of scores while running in another. The running game isn't the only place to find stars, as WR Da'Ron Brown broke free for 64 receptions, 1,002 yards and six trips to the end zone.


-- NIU has dropped two straight bowl games, including a 31-10 setback to Florida State in the 2012 Orange Bowl. In fact, the Huskies are 2-5 in their past seven bowl games overall. Meanwhile, Marshall rolls in with a three-game bowl winning streak, and they have won eight of their past nine bowl appearances, including 1-0 in bowl games in the Sunshine State.

-- The Thundering Herd have covered eight of their past 11 games against a team with a winning record, and they're 5-1 ATS in their past six non-conference tilts. And for what it's worth, the Herd has posted a 4-0-1 ATS mark in their past five appearances on Tuesdays.


-- The Huskies are just 1-3-1 ATS in their past five games at a neutral site, although that lone cover came in the MAC title game against Bowling Green. The Huskies are also just 2-5 ATS in their past seven bowl games, and 3-8 ATS in their past 11 battles on grass. And, against Conference USA foes, the Huskies have managed to cover just once in their past five outings.


-- The 'under' has been the dominant trend for the Herd lately, cashing in five of their past six games in the month of December, as well as each of their past four neutral-site battles and each of their past four bowl appearances. In three games against bowl teams this season, the under cashed twice for the Herd. Overall this season the under is just 6-7 for Marshall, but 3-1 in the past four.


-- The 'under' has connected in five of the past six for NIU, and is an impressive 11-4 in their past 15 neutral-site games. The under is also 6-1 in their past seven bowl games, and 6-1 in their past seven games on a grass surface. The under is 3-2 in five games for NIU against bowl teams this season.


-- Kickoff is scheduled for 6:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.


**Navy vs. San Diego State**


-- The nightcap Tuesday has Navy squaring off with San Diego State in the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl. The Aztecs will be right at home playing on their home field, but the Midshipmen have appeared in the bowl game four times since its inception in 2005, and that includes a 35-14 loss to San Diego State back in 2010.


-- It will be interesting seeing if Navy's triple-option attack can solve the San Diego State defense which was tops in the Mountain West Conference by allowing just 20.1 points per game For Navy, they will be trying to deal the Aztecs their first loss of the season at Qualcomm Stadium after San Diego State posted a 6-0 record there this season.


-- While the Aztecs were 6-0 at Qualcomm Stadium this season, they were just 3-2-1 ATS. San Diego State's margin of victory at home this season was 19.8 points per game. Even more impressive might be the fact that the under cashed in each of those six victories.


-- San Diego State faced four bowl teams during the regular season, going just 1-3 SU. However, they were 3-1 ATS during those games with the under going 3-1.


-- For the Aztecs, it all starts with Donnell Pumphrey, who was tabbed as a Mountain West First-Team Performer. He posted 1,755 rushing yards with 19 touchdowns. On the other side of the football, SDSU has a sturdy rushing defense, allowing just 145.6 yards per game.


-- On defense for Navy, CBs Noah Copeland and Chris Swain. The duo do not figure to be terribly busy against the run-heavy Aztecs. However, LBs Jordan Drake and Daniel Gonzales totaled 158 stops, and they will be plenty busy trying to track down Pumphrey. Watch out for DE Will Anthony, too, as he racked up eight tackles for loss this season.


-- Navy's Reynolds posted 1,082 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns during the regular season, and he threw for 749 yards and five scores. One of those passing scores, and one of his running touchdowns, came in their rivalry game 10 days ago against Army. The Middies will certainly not have to worry about any layoff after having just played Dec. 13. Reynolds (ankle) is listed on the injury report, but he is probable and isn't expected to be in any doubt for the game.


-- The Aztecs have Mountain West Conference second-team CBs Damontae Kazee and J.J. Whitaker looking to force mistakes if and when Navy does actually pass. LB Calvin Munson will be very busy trying to corral Reynolds. Munson made 78 stops this season, with 10.5 going for losses. He also forced two fumbles while sacking the quarterback four times and picking off four passes. He is a jack-of-all-trades.


-- Navy has faced six bowl teams this season, and the Midshipmen went just 1-5 SU/ATS during those six contests while the under cashed in four of those six outings.


-- The Midshipmen have covered 18 of their past 23 games against Mountain West opponents, while covering seven of their past 10 games against teams with a winning overall mark. However, Navy is just 2-5 ATS in their past seven non-conference games, and 2-5 in their past seven neutral-site affairs, including a non-cover against Army, and another non-cover in their regular season opener against Ohio State.


-- For the Aztecs, they're 6-2-1 ATS in their past nine games on grass. They have also covered three in a row overall. As far as the total, the 'under' has been the dominant play for San Diego State. The under was a perfect 9-0 to start the season, and was an impressive 11-1 in 12 games this season. The under is 6-0 in their past six games against independents, and 4-1 in their past five against teams with a winning record. And in the past 21 games on a grass surface, San Diego has seen the under cover 16 times.


-- Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

 

[CNOTES]

2014-15 Bowl Betting Results


December 22, 2014


BOWL CONFERENCE STANDINGS


Conference Straight Up (SU) Against the Spread (ATS)


ACC - -


American (AAC) 1-0 1-0


Big 10 - -


Big 12 - -


CUSA 0-1 0-1


Independent 0-1 0-1


Mid-American 1-1 1-1


Mountain West 2-2 2-2


Pac-12 1-0 1-0


SEC - -


Sun Belt 1-1 1-1




OVERALL GAME RESULTS


Wager SU Win SU Loss ATS Win ATS Loss


Favorite 3 3 3 3


Underdog 3 3 3 3


Over Under
3 3




2014-15 BOWL SCHEDULE - RESULTS


Date Bowl Matchup Line, Total Score ATS/Total


Saturday, Dec. 20 New Orleans Bowl Nevada vs Louisiana-Lafayette 1.5, 62.5 16-3 Underdog-Under


Saturday, Dec. 20 New Mexico Bowl Utah State vs Texas-El Paso 10, 45.5 21-6 Favorite-Under


Saturday, Dec. 20 Las Vegas Bowl Utah vs Colorado State 3, 57 45-10 Favorite-Under


Saturday, Dec. 20 Idaho Potato Bowl Western Michigan vs Air Force 2.5, 59 38-24 Underdog-Over


Saturday, Dec. 20 Camellia Bowl South Alabama vs Bowling Green 3.5, 55 33-28 Underdog-Over


Monday, Dec. 22 Miami Beach Bowl Brigham Young vs Memphis 1.5, 56 55-48 Favorite-Over


Tuesday, Dec. 23 Boca Raton Bowl Marshall vs Northern Illinois - - -


Tuesday, Dec. 23 Poinsettia Bowl Navy vs San Diego State - - -


Wednesday, Dec. 24 Bahamas Bowl Central Michigan vs Western Kentucky - - -


Wednesday, Dec. 24 Hawai'i Bowl Fresno State vs Rice - - -


Friday, Dec. 26 Heart of Dallas Bowl Illinois vs Louisiana Tech - - -


Friday, Dec. 26 Quick Lane Bowl Rutgers vs North Carolina - - -


Friday, Dec. 26 St. Petersburg Bowl North Carolina State vs UCF - - -


Saturday, Dec. 27 Military Bowl Cincinnati vs Virginia Tech - - -


Saturday, Dec. 27 Sun Bowl Duke vs Arizona State - - -


Saturday, Dec. 27 Independence Bowl Miami-Fla. vs South Carolina - - -


Saturday, Dec. 27 Pinstripe Bowl Boston College vs Penn State - - -


Saturday, Dec. 27 Holiday Bowl Nebraska vs Southern California - - -


Monday, Dec. 29 Liberty Bowl Texas A&M vs West Virginia - - -


Monday, Dec. 29 Russell Athletic Bowl Oklahoma vs Clemson - - -


Monday, Dec. 29 Texas Bowl Arkansas vs Texas - - -


Tuesday, Dec. 30 Music City Bowl Notre Dame vs Louisiana State - - -


Tuesday, Dec. 30 Belk Bowl Georgia vs Louisville - - -


Tuesday, Dec. 30 Foster Farms Bowl Maryland vs Stanford - - -


Wednesday, Dec. 31 Peach Bowl Mississippi vs Texas Christian - - -


Wednesday, Dec. 31 Fiesta Bowl Boise State vs Arizona - - -


Wednesday, Dec. 31 Orange Bowl Mississippi State vs Georgia Tech - - -


Thursday, Jan. 1 Outback Bowl Auburn vs Wisconsin - - -


Thursday, Jan. 1 Cotton Bowl Michigan State vs Baylor - - -


Thursday, Jan. 1 Citrus Bowl Missouri vs Minnesota - - -


Thursday, Jan. 1 Rose Bowl - National Semifinal Oregon vs Florida State - - -


Thursday, Jan. 1 Sugar Bowl - National Semifinal Alabama vs Ohio State - - -


Friday, Jan. 2 Armed Forces Bowl Houston vs Pittsburgh - - -


Friday, Jan. 2 Taxslayer Bowl Iowa vs Tennessee - - -


Friday, Jan. 2 Alamo Bowl Kansas State vs UCLA - - -


Friday, Jan. 2 Cactus Bowl Washington vs Oklahoma State - - -


Saturday, Jan. 3 Birmingham Bowl East Carolina vs Florida - - -


Sunday, Jan. 4 Godaddy Bowl Toledo vs Arkansas State - - -


Monday, Jan. 12 National Championship Game TBD vs TBD - - -
**Winner listed in Red

 

[CNOTES]

My Bowl Record:


college bowl game record


*****......................................1 - 3


double play...............................1 - 0


triple play.................................3 - 0


blow out or upset.......................1 - 0


bowl game of the year................0 - 0




Rated Picks and Opinons


Date WLT Pct Net Units Record


12/22/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail


12/20/14 6-*4-*0 60.00% +*800 Detail


12/13/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail


Totals: 9-5-0 64.28% +1850

 

[cashflow50]

sorry to ask Cnotes, but how the heck do we find your plays?

 

[CNOTES]

Cashflow....my daily plays are under a thread called best bets of the day usually in the college hoops thread.....

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Hawai'i Bowl, 12/24
Rice started season 0-3 with a loss to Old Dominion, lost its last game to La Tech 76-31; in between they won seven of eight games- they're 7-2 vs spread in last nine. Why is 6-7 Fresno State in a bowl? Bulldogs lost last five bowls, giving up average of 40.6 ppg, with last three losses by 23+ points- couple years ago, they lost this game 43-10 to SMU, but that was June Jones' homecoming. Rice is 6-5 in bowl games, splitting last four- Owls' last five bowls were all decided by 19+ points. Fresno is 4-1 this year in games with single digit spread; Rice is 6-2. Underdog covered this game four of last five years, with four of five staying under total.

Bahamas Bowl, 12/24
Western Kentucky's only bowl appearance was a 24-21 loss to Central Michigan in 2012 Motor City Bowl, as 6-point faves. Hilltoppers were 3-5 after a 59-10 loss at La Tech; they've won four in row since, handing Marshall its only loss 67-66- they scored 34+ points in four of their five losses- this figures to be high scoring. Chippewas are 3-2 as underdogs this year; they won five of last seven games, are 3-4 in bowls, with last four all decided by exactly 3 points; they won last two, 44-41ot/24-21. WKU is 3-6 vs spread this year in games with single digit spread; Chips are 3-3 in such games. This is first-ever Bahamas Bowl.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Wednesday, December 24

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bahamas Bowl betting preview: Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-3.5, 68)

Game to be played at Thomas A. Robinson Stadium, Nassau, Bahamas

The inaugural Bahamas Bowl in Nassau pitting Central Michigan against Western Kentucky is the first FBS bowl game outside of either the United States or Canada since the 1937 Bacardi Bowl in Havana, Cuba. Ironically, each team’s last trip to a bowl game came when they faced each other in the 2012 Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, where the Chippewas held off the Hilltoppers 24-21. The coincidences do not end there, as both schools were bowl-eligible last year but did not play in the postseason.

After serving one season under current Louisville coach Bobby Petrino at Western Kentucky, Jeff Brohm has turned the Hilltoppers into an offensive juggernaut in his first season at the helm. Western Kentucky ranks sixth in the country in scoring and total offense, helping the school notch its first-ever win over a ranked opponent in its last game – a 67-66 overtime triumph over then-undefeated No. 20 Marshall. The Hilltoppers closed the season with four straight victories, averaging 49.8 points and 530.8 yards during the winning streak.

The Chippewas counter with the top total defense, rush defense and pass defense in the Mid-American Conference, although that unit has been somewhat inconsistent. In handing eventual conference champion Northern Illinois its first home loss in 29 games and only setback inside the MAC on Oct. 11, Central Michigan held the league’s top rushing offense 142 yards below its season average. Two weeks earlier, Toledo’s 19th-ranked offense gutted the Chippewas for 543 yards and 42 points – both season highs against Central Michigan.

TV: Noon ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Western Kentucky opened as 3-point favorites, have been bet as high as -4 and now sit at -3.5. The total has risen two points, going from 66 to 68.

INJURY REPORT: Central Michigan - WR Eric Cooper (questionable Wednesday, suspension). Western Kentucky - LB Joel Iyiegbuniwe (questionable Wednesday, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: There will be a strong wind gusting towards the northern end zone at 18 miles per hour. It will also be overcast with a 10 percent chance of rain and temperatures in the low 80's for the game.

ABOUT CENTRAL MICHIGAN (7-5, 5-7 ATS, 5-7 O/U): The Chippewas own the 16th-ranked total defense in FBS and were particularly good during their 5-2 finish to the regular season, giving up no more than 129 rushing yards in any game and surrendering more than 233 passing once over that stretch. "No doubt it's been the best defense, it's been the best defense we have had by far," fourth-year coach Dan Enos told the school’s website. Central Michigan does not lack for offensive playmakers, however, as leading receiver Titus Davis is the only player in FBS history with eight or more touchdown receptions in four seasons.

ABOUT WESTERN KENTUCKY (7-5, 6-6 ATS, 8-3-1 O/U): The Hilltoppers shattered 42 team and individual offensive records, many of which fell thanks to quarterback Brandon Doughty, who leads all FBS quarterbacks with 4,344 passing yards and 44 touchdowns. Doughty picked apart Marshall for 491 yards and a conference-record eight TDs, which allowed him to move into a four-way tie for 16th place in FBS history for the most passing scores in a single season. Western Kentucky also boasts a solid ground game led by Leon Allen, who ran for 650 of his 1,490 yards over the last three games – including a school-record 345-yard effort in a Nov. 15 win versus Army.

TRENDS:

* Central Michigan is 1-5 ATS in its last six games on grass.
* Western Kentucky is 1-4 ATS versus a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-1 in Central Michigan's last five games following a SU loss.
* Over is 5-1-1 in Western Kentucky's last seven games following a SU win.

CONSENSUS: Sixty-seven percent of wagers are backing the favored Hilltoppers at -3.5.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Wednesday, December 24

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hawai'i Bowl betting preview: Fresno State vs. Rice
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Rice Owls (-2.5, 59.5)

Game to be played at Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, Hawai'i

With a sub-.500 record and a bitter taste in its mouth from two years ago, Fresno State returns to the Hawaii Bowl when it faces Rice in Honolulu. The Bulldogs hope to enjoy their Christmas Eve a bit more than they did when they were demolished by SMU 43-10 in their first Hawaii Bowl appearance. "We are thrilled to be playing in the Hawaii Bowl against Rice," coach Tim DeRuyter said in a statement after the bowl matchups were announced. "Having been to the Hawaii Bowl just two years ago, our staff and players know that we are in for a fantastic week."

Both teams are coming off a disappointing performance their last time out, particularly the Owls. Rice enjoyed its best defensive effort of the season in a 31-13 triumph over UTEP before getting obliterated by Louisiana Tech 76-31 in its regular-season finale. The Owls surrendered 677 yards - 408 through the air - and were outgained 269-34 on the ground while allowing five TDs of at least 30 yards.

Fresno State fell behind 28-0 against Boise State in the Mountain West championship game before two late TDs made the final score a bit more respectable. The Bulldogs dominated the Broncos from a statistical standpoint but were doomed by three interceptions by Brian Burrell and a blocked field goal while the game still was close. "This is a gutty team with tremendous resolve," DeRuyter said after the 28-14 defeat. "We were down big in this game, but our kids didn't quit. I think we represent the Valley well and we plan on going out and winning a bowl game."

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Rice opened as 1.5-point underdogs, but have been bet all the way to 2.5-point favorites. The total opened at 59 and has been bet up slightly to 59.5.

INJURY REPORT: Fresno State - RB Kurt Scoby (questionable Wednesday, concussion), RB Dontel James (questionable Wednesday, leg), DL Maurice Poyadue (out indefinitely, suspension), LB Michael Lazarus (out indefinitely, suspension), WR Myles Carr (out indefinitely, suspension), LB Xavier Ulutu (out indefinitely, suspension). Rice - WR Derek Brown (questionable Wednesday, undisclosed), DL Stuart Mouchantaf (questionable Wednesday, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: There are thunderstorms expected in the forecast and a 75 percent chance of rain. There will also be a 12 mile per hour wind gusting across the field from east to west. Temperatures will be in the mid 70's.

ABOUT FRESNO STATE (6-7, 7-6 ATS, 7-6 O/U): The Bulldogs, the only team to earn a bowl berth with a sub-.500 record this season, are playing in the postseason for the 14th time in 16 years, although they have dropped five straight bowl games dating to the 2007 Humanitarian Bowl. Fresno State won the Mountain West's Western Division thanks in large part to its two best offensive players. Marteze Waller has rushed for 1,292 yards and 11 touchdowns, although he was held to 23 yards by Boise State, while Josh Harper led the Bulldogs with 86 catches for 1,072 yards.

ABOUT RICE (7-5, 8-4 ATS, 7-5 O/U): The Owls are heading to a bowl game for a third straight season for the first time in program history, although last year's 44-7 loss to Mississippi State in the Liberty Bowl was a one-sided affair. "I know they are very proud to be the first team to earn a third straight bowl berth and they have the longest active bowl streak in Conference USA, but they are not going to be satisfied with a bid," said coach David Bailiff, whose team is 7-0 when holding its opponent to 23 points or fewer. Junior quarterback Driphus Jackson set career highs against Louisiana Tech for completions (25), attempts (40), yards (337), touchdowns (four) and interceptions (three).

TRENDS:

* Fresno State is 0-5 ATS in its last five Bowl games.
* Rice is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games versus a team with a losing record.
* Over is 5-0-1 in Fresno State's last six non-conference games.
* Under is 5-1 in Rice's last six neutral site games.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are fairly split, with 54 percent of wagers backing Rice at -2.5.

 

[CNOTES]

Bahamas Bowl


December 24, 2014




CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS (7-5) vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS (7-5)


Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium - Nassau, Bahamas
Kickoff: Wednesday, Noon ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Western Kentucky -4, Total: 68.5


Western Kentucky attempts to win its first bowl game since 1963 when it squares off with Central Michigan on Wednesday afternoon.


The Chippewas had a rough start to the 2014 season with SU losses in three of their first five games (1-4 ATS) but were able to get things back on track against conference foes. They were 5-3 SU against MAC teams and won three of their final four contests despite committing 10 turnovers in that timeframe. CMU has been impressive in recent bowl visits while winning its past two contests back in 2009 and 2012 by an average of just 3.0 PPG.


Western Kentucky also had a very murky start to the year, as it was 3-5 (both SU and ATS) heading into the final month of the season before reeling off four straight wins to reach just its second bowl game since 1963. The Hilltoppers offense caught fire in those four games with 49.8 PPG, as they were 3-1 ATS and defeated their opponents by an average of 18.8 PPG. Their final win of the season was easily their most impressive, as they grabbed a victory against undefeated, 23.5-point favorite Marshall by a score of 67-66 in a game where the two programs combined for 1,446 yards of total offense.


This Christmas Eve contest is a rematch of the 2012 Little Caesars Bowl where Central Michigan went in as a 6-point underdog and managed a three-point victory (24-21). It was a clean game, as neither team committed a turnover, while the Chippewas outgained the Hilltoppers 393-327.


Trends show that Central Michigan is a perfect 8-0 ATS in non-home games after playing two straight conference games in the past three seasons, while Western Kentucky has gone 16-4 ATS (80%) after two or more consecutive ATS wins since 1992.


The only injury of note to keep an eye on for this game is to HB Thomas Rawls (leg) of the Chippewas who was hurt in his last contest, and is 'out' for Wednesday.


Central Michigan didn’t really excel in any part of its offensive game with 222.0 passing YPG and 158.7 rushing YPG, as it scored only 25.2 PPG. QB Cooper Rush (2,664 pass yards, 20 TD, 12 INT) threw at least one interception in each of his past six games, but was able to compile 239 passing YPG, as he twice threw for three touchdowns in that time. Over the course of the year, he successfully completed 64% of his passes for 7.9 YPA and surpassed 30 attempts five different times.


Losing a key part to the ground game will hurt CMU. HB Thomas Rawls (1,103 rush yards, 10 TD) struggled with injuries all season long, missing three games and carrying the ball only three times in two other instances. In his other seven performances, he averaged 154.7 YPG (5.3 YPC) and eclipsed 220 yards twice.


WR Titus Davis (843 rec yards, 9 TD) was the leading receiver for this team, as he managed 15.6 yards per catch and gained 100 yards in five of his nine games played.


While they weren’t too great on the offensive side of things, the Chippewas defense was solid in limiting opponents to 23.2 PPG (32nd in nation) behind just 119.8 rushing YPG (18th in FBS). Expect LB Justin Cherocci (107 tackles, 4 sacks) to be heavily involved in each play as the leader of this side of the ball for Central Michigan.


Western Kentucky won its games with one of the best passing offenses in the nation, as it gained 365.0 YPG through the air (3rd in FBS) while adding 160.3 rushing YPG and scoring 44.0 PPG (6th in nation).


QB Brandon Doughty (4,344 pass yards, 44 TD, 10 INT) continues to carry this program, and he had five games with at least four touchdown passes this season. He is also coming off his best performance of the year against Marshall as he threw eight touchdowns (and 2 INT) while gaining 491 yards on 34-of-50 passing (68%) in an overtime thriller.


HB Leon Allen (1,490 rush yards, 12 TD) was a workhorse, as he ran the ball 21.6 times per game while averaging 5.8 YPC. This includes 237 yards (7.2 YPC) and one touchdown against Marshall on Nov. 28. Overall he had six games where he eclipsed 100 yards on the ground and had one contest where he rumbled for an amazing 345 yards (10.5 YPC) while getting into the end zone three times against Army.


WR Taywon Taylor (739 rec yards, 7 TD) led the team in yards, as he gained a solid 16.8 yards per catch, while WR Jared Dangerfield (738 rec yards, 10 TD) was the volume receiver with a team-high 64 receptions, and had five scores over the final three games of the year.


Unfortunately, the Hilltoppers defense was not up to the task this season in allowing opponents put up 501.8 YPG of total offense (6th-worst in FBS) and 39.3 PPG (also 6th-worst in nation). LB Nick Holt (103 tackles, 7 sacks) and DB Brandon Leston (57 tackles, 4 INT, 1 sack) were a couple of the bright spots on this defense, and will really need to pick it up in order for this team to win.

 

[CNOTES]

Wednesday's Bowl Tips


December 24, 2014




**Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky**


-- Conference USA and the Mid-American Conference clash Wednesday for the second straight day in a tropical paradise. Tuesday, it was C-USA's Marshall dispatching MAC Champion Northern Illinois by a 52-23 count in the Boca Raton Bowl. Now, all attention turns to Thomas A. Robinson Stadium in Nassau for Wednesday's Popeye's Bahamas Bowl featuring Central Michigan and Western Kentucky. It is the first bowl game to be played outside of the United States or Canada since 1937, when the Bacardi Bowl was played in Havana, Cuba.


-- Central Michigan (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) enters their bowl game winners of three games in the past four, and five of the past seven after opening 2-3 SU. The Chippewas have been so-so against the number lately, going 2-2 ATS in the past four. In three games against bowl teams, the Chips went 1-2 SU/ATS. The Chips enter the game as a 3.5-point underdog, and the total sits at 68 as of Wednesday early morning.


-- Western Kentucky (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) has had a tale of two seasons. They opened just 2-4 SU/ATS, and failed to cover six times in their first nine outings. However, they have pieced together a four-game winning streak, and they have covered each of the past three outings. That includes their memorable 67-66 overtime thriller against previously unbeaten Marshall in WKU's regular season finale Nov. 28 in Huntington.


-- One thing the Hilltoppers could be relied upon this season was video-game-like performances. In addition to the 67-66 game with Marshall, they scored 34 or more points in 11 of their 12 games, and went for 45 or more points on six different occasions.


-- As much as their offense shined, the Western Kentucky defense was a problem spot. The 'Toppers gave up 24 or more points in 11 of their 12 games, and more than 42 points seven different times. Needless to say, the 'over' was a frequent play for bettors when it came to WKU. The 'over' was an impressive 8-3-1, including 4-1-1 away from Bowling Green. In their 12 games, the average total points checked in at a whopping 83.2 points per game combined between WKU and their opponents.


-- The 'over' also cashed in the final two regular season games for the Chippewas, but was just 2-4 in their six games away from Mount Pleasant.


-- When Central Michigan has the ball, WR Titus Davis will be the player Western Kentucky needs to worry about most. He rolled up a team-best 843 yards on 56 receptions, and he hauled in nine touchdowns. He is the only player in FBS history to post eight or more touchdowns in four collegiate seasons. RB Thomas Rawls averaged 5.3 yards per carry, running for 1,103 yards and finding the end zone 10 times. However, he missed time down the stretch, and it was freshman RB Devon Spalding scalding opposing defenses for 301 rushing yards and four touchdowns in a two-game stretch from Nov. 1-15. He is an explosive up-and-comer to watch when Rawls is getting a breather. And while his name sounds like a runner, QB Cooper Rush completed 63.8 percent of his passes, tossing 20 touchdowns while amassing 2,664 yards and a 142.7 passer rating in 2014.


-- For WKU, QB Brandon Doughty hoisted the ball up a mind-boggling 510 times, completing 344 passes for 4,344 yards, 44 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions. Florida-born WRs Jared Dangerfield and Willie McNeal combined for 17 touchdown receptions, and leading receiver Taywan Taylor was good for 739 yards with seven scores. Dangerfield should totally get respect, as he posted five touchdowns in his first three games, including eight grabs for 117 yards and two scores in their monumental win against Marshall Nov. 28.


-- The defense of Central Michigan was outstanding, but this will be their toughest assignment, by far, of the 2014 season. CMU ranked 16th in total defense in FBS, and they did not give up more than 129 rushing yards in any game while giving up 233 yards or fewer passing in their final seven outings.


-- For what it's worth, CMU is 4-0-1 ATS in their past five appearances on Wednesdays. They're also 3-1-1 ATS in their past five bowl games. However, the Chips are 5-15-1 ATS in their past 21 non-conference tilts, and 1-5 ATS in their past six games played on a grass surface. The 'over' is 4-0 in their past four games on grass, but the under is 5-2 in their past seven neutral-site contests. The 'under' is 13-6 in their past 19 games overall.


-- Western Kentucky is 14-3 ATS in their past 17 games on a grass surface, but just 1-4 ATS in their past five games against a club with a winning overall record. The over is 4-1 in Western Kentucky's past five non-conference battles, and 9-3-1 in their past 13 games overall. The over is also 3-1-1 in their past five against a team with an overall winning mark.


-- These teams last met Dec. 26, 2012 in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl, with CMU coming out on top 24-21.


-- Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.


**Fresno State vs. Rice**


-- The Christmas Eve evening game features the Mountain West's Fresno State Bulldogs meeting the Rice Owls in the Hawai'i Bowl. This game features the only team to get invited to a bowl with a sub-.500 record.


-- Fresno State (6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS) has been very shaky this season, but they did enough to earn bowl eligibility. The Bulldogs were roughed up in their first three games, going 0-3 SU/ATS in a stretch at Southern California, at Utah and home against Nebraska. However, they rattled off wins and covers in their next three games from Sept. 20-Oct. 3 before another three-game losing streak from Oct. 10-Nov. 1. At 3-6, it appeared any postseason aspirations would be dashed. They then knocked off San Jose State, Nevada and Hawaii in a three-game stretch to move to 6-6 to qualify for the Mountain West Championship Game. They entered as a 22.5-point underdog, covering in a 28-14 loss at Boise State, their second loss of the season against the Broncos.


-- In seven games against six bowl teams, the Bulldogs were 2-5 SU and 4-3 ATS. They enter this game as a 2.5-point underdog against Rice.


-- Rice (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS) struggled to start the season, and they struggled down the stretch, while looking near unbeatable in the middle. The Owls were 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS in the first three games before a six-game winning streak from Sept. 27-Nov. 8, when Rice was also 6-0 ATS. However, they got a dose of reality in a 41-14 stomping at the hands of Marshall in Huntington Nov. 15. They were also topped 76-31 in their regular season finale at Louisiana Tech, so they have been champing at the bit for the past four weeks to get redemption.


-- The Bulldogs are back in Hawaii after a two-year absence. They were treated rudely by Southern Methodist in the 2012 version of this game, falling 43-10. In fact, Fresno State has come away empty-handed in five consecutive bowl games dating back to the 2007 Humitarian Bowl.


-- The Owls are making their third consecutive postseason appearance, and they're looking to make a better showing than last year's 44-7 blowout loss against Mississippi State. It is the first time in school history that Rice is in a bowl game for a third straight year.


-- Rice went 7-0 this season when holding the opposition under 23 points, and they're 0-5 when the opponent scores 24 or more.


-- Rice has a rather balanced attack, led by QB Driphus Jackson. He threw for 2,524 yards with 21 touchdowns and just eight interceptions, while also amassing 360 yards and a score. He did a great job filling the shoes of the departed Taylor McHargue, who was a huge piece of Rice's success over the past two seasons. Sophomore RB Jowan Davis rolled up a team-best 910 yards with six rushing scores, and he hit the century mark on three separate occasions. WR Mario Hull posted seven touchdown grabs, with two in the finale at Louisiana Tech. He had four trips to the end zone in his final three games, coming on strong down the stretch. Senior WR Jordan Taylor led the way with 781 yards with six scores, including 136 yards and a score at La. Tech. He is a dangerous player who posted 15.9 yards per snare on 49 catches.


-- When Fresno has the ball, it's all about RB Marteze Waller. He posted an impressive 1,292 rushing yards (6.2 yards per carry) with 11 forays into the end zone. RB Josh Quezada was also a nice change-of-pace back, posting two 100-yard games in the final four outings and he scored twice in the final two games, including a score against Boise State in the MWC title game. WR Josh Harper led the team with 1,072 yards and seven scores, and he has 20 touchdowns over the past two years. He has 65 or more receiving yards in each of the past four games, including three scores.


-- Fresno State has covered seven of their past 10 games, although they are 1-4 ATS in their past five non-conference games. They're also 1-4 ATS in their past five games against Conference USA teams, and they're 0-5 ATS in their past five bowl games. They're also 0-5 ATS in their past five neutral-site battles.


-- Rice is 7-2 ATS in their past nine games overall, and 10-3 ATS in their past 13 non-conference battles. In addition, they are an impressive 10-1 ATS in their past 11 games against a team with a losing record. They're also 4-0 ATS in their past four against a Mountain West opponent.


-- The 'over' is 5-0-1 in Fresno State's past six non-conference tilts, and 4-1-1 in their past six bowl games. The over is also 4-1-1 in their past six neutral-site contests. For Rice, the 'under' is 5-1 in their past six neutral-site battles, and the 'over' is 5-2 in their past seven against a team with a losing record. In the past four meetings between these teams the over has cashed in each of the four games.


-- These teams last met Nov. 6, 2004 with Fresno State thumping Rice 52-21.


-- Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

 

[CNOTES]

Big Ten Bowl Report - Part 1


Big Ten Bowl Games scheduled between Dec. 26 and Dec. 30


Illinois (+6, 61.5) vs. Louisiana Tech
Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl
Friday, Dec. 26 – 1:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX


After starting 1-5 in B1G play, the Illini won their final two games of the season to become bowl eligible, both upsets (win over Penn State as a five-point underdog and win over Northwestern as a 7.5-point underdog). They’re tabbed as a six-point underdog here in their first bowl appearance since 2011. Illinois faces a tough decision at quarterback for this game. Wes Lunt led the team with 14 TD passes and just 3 INT, but he was injured midway through the season and when he returned, he wasn’t as effective as he was pre-injury. Reilly O’Toole, more of a dual-threat, led the team to wins against Minnesota, Penn State, and Northwestern. Coaches haven’t indicated which player will start this game, but it’s a safe assumption that both will see the field. It’s a big task for whoever starts under center, because Illinois didn’t get a great contribution from the running attack all season long and they’ll be going against a defense that ranked 16th nationally against the run (117.9 rush YPG allowed by LA Tech). Leading rusher Josh Ferguson only had one game where he exceeded 95 rushing yards as the team ranked 114th in rush YPG nationally.


Defensively the Illini weren’t great this season. Nine of 12 opponents scored 30+ points and they finished the season ranked 108th in scoring defense and 115th in yards per game allowed. Statistically LA Tech isn’t an offensive juggernaut (65th in yards per game), but the Bulldogs did average 45 PPG over the last five games – including a 76-point outburst in a win over Rice on November 29th. The offense is led by QB Cody Sokol, who tossed for 3,189 yards, 29 TD, and 13 INT in 2014. They also got a great contribution from RB Kenneth Dixon, who rushed for 1,236 yards (5.2 YPC) and 21 TD. Louisiana Tech has been one of the best teams to wager on this season, finishing with a 10-3 record against the spread. Their 76-31 win over Rice placed them in the Conference USA Championship game, where they nearly pulled off the upset win (L 23-26 to Marshall).


Louisiana Tech suspended six players before the Marshall game, including five starters, and it's unlikely they'll play in this bowl. Over the last four years, LA Tech is 3-6 SU and 8-1 ATS in games against Power Five conference teams, including a 52-24 win over Illinois in 2012. They covered games against Oklahoma and Auburn this season as a heavy underdog. LA Tech has covered both of its bowl appearances since 2008 while Illinois is 2-1 SU & ATS in three bowl appearances since 2007.


Rutgers (+3, 66) vs. North Carolina
Quick Lane Bowl
Friday, Dec. 26 – 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Ford Field, Detroit, MI


The destination isn’t quite as desirable as other bowl games, so motivation could play a factor for both sides here. Most media experts didn’t expect much from Rutgers before the season and a 7-5 finish and a trip to a bowl game is a bit of a success in itself, but the Scarlet Knights aren’t exactly “hot” coming into this game. They’ve dropped four of the last six, losing to Ohio State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Michigan State by a combined score of 44-180. They were able to close it out on a positive note, winning at Maryland 41-38. QB Gary Nova disappeared far too often in big games and was maddeningly inconsistent. In Rutgers’ five losses, Nova combined for 1 TD pass and 10 INT (19 TD and 2 INT in seven Rutgers victories). He doesn’t have much of a running attack to lean on, especially after starting RB Paul James went down with a knee injury in September. As a team, the Scarlet Knights rank 89th in rush YPG and the leading rusher, Desmon Peoples, has 447 yards (3.9 YPC) and 3 TD.


Luckily for the Scarlet Knights, North Carolina doesn’t boast a great defense. The Tar Heels rank 118th in yards per game allowed, 108th against the pass, 117th against the run, and 119th in scoring D. Eight of 12 opponents scored 35+ points, and three scored 50+ points. North Carolina looked like one of the nation’s worst team’s midway through the season as it struggled to a 2-4 record that included losses of 29 points to East Carolina, 25 points to Clemson, and 17 points to Virginia Tech. The Tar Heels righted the ship in the 2nd half of the season, finishing 4-2 with quality wins over Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, and Duke. It ended with a dud in a 28-point loss to NC State, but a 6-6 campaign is more than most expected after the porous start that this team got off to. QB Marquise Williams is the player to watch here. He led the team in passing (2,875 yards), rushing (732 yards), and total touchdowns (32). Williams could lead this UNC offense to a big day against this Rutgers defense that has allowed 37+ points in five of the last six games.


The Scarlet Knights have dropped back-to-back bowl games, losing to Virginia Tech in 2012 and Notre Dame in 2013. North Carolina won the Belk Bowl last year and this will be their fifth bowl appearance in the last five years (were ineligible in 2012 despite an 8-4 finish). These two opponents have met four times since 2006. North Carolina is 3-1 SU in those four meetings, but Rutgers covered as the 9.5-point underdog in the last meeting in 2011.


Penn State (+2.5, 40) vs. Boston College
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 27 - 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY


If you like hard-hitting defenses, buckle your chin straps for this one. Two top-15 defenses meet in Yankee Stadium in a game where motivation is high for both sides. PSU is playing its first bowl game in three years after the NCAA lifted its postseason ban earlier this year. BC is searching for its first bowl win since 2007, aiming to end a four-game bowl losing skid. Penn State jumped out to a 4-0 start to 2014 that included quality wins over Central Florida and Rutgers. Things quickly went downhill as the Nittany Lions managed just two wins over the final eight games. QB Christian Hackenberg had just four touchdown passes and 10 INT’s over those eight games while completing less than 50% over that span. All of the blame can’t be on Hackenberg, however, as the PSU offensive line was one of the worst in the nation. PSU allowed a B1G-high 42 sacks while only averaging 103.6 rush YPG (120th nationally). Despite being so inept on offense, the defense was able to keep them in a number of games (four of their six losses were by seven points or fewer). The Nittany Lions rank 2nd in yards per game allowed, 10th against the pass, 1st against the rush, and 8th in scoring defense.


That defense will be put to the test against a Boston College offense that runs the ball very well. The Golden Eagles rank 15th in rush YPG, led by QB Tyler Murphy. Murphy set an ACC record for rushing yards by a quarterback with 1,079 and scored 10 rushing touchdowns. He wasn’t terribly effective through the air, finishing with 11 pass TD, 10 INT, and 56.9% completions. He also has solid contributors around him as RB’s Jon Hillman and Myles Willis combined for 1,152 rush yards and 14 TD.


These two used to meet every year, but since Penn State became a member of the B1G, they’ve met only twice (2003 & 2004). Boston College won both of those meetings. The Golden Eagles are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in the last four bowl games, including a 19-42 loss to Arizona in the AdvoCare V100 Bowl last year. Penn State is 0-2 SU & ATS in their last two Bowl games (last win came in 2009 - 19-17 vs. LSU in the Capital One Bowl) and this will be their first bowl appearance since 2011.


Nebraska (+6.5, 62) vs. USC
National University Holiday Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 27 - 8:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA


The Huskers, like Iowa, had a chance to win the B1G West with a couple of wins late in the season. Instead, they dropped back-to-back games to Wisconsin and Minnesota to fall out of the running. Nine wins wasn’t enough to save coach Bo Pelini, who was canned after the season. Interim coach Barney Cotton will serve as the head coach in the Holiday Bowl when Nebraska takes on USC. Nebraska will lean on its rushing attack behind stud RB Ameer Abdullah. Abdullah finished 2014 with 1,523 yards and 18 TD (also had 208 receiving yards and 3 receiving TD). Abdullah had a knee sprain that limited down the stretch (68.5 rush YPG over the final four weeks), but he expects to be fully healthy for this matchup on December 27th. If Abdullah can’t get going, then Nebraska will be in trouble because QB Armstrong hasn’t shown the ability to lead this offense through the air. Armstrong completed just 51.7% of his passes with 19 TD and 11 INT this year and disappeared in Nebraska’s biggest games – 38-of-80 passing for 186 pass YPG with 2 TD and 3 INT against ranked opponents this year.


USC hasn’t faced an offense as focused on running the football as Nebraska will be, mostly going against pass-first offenses in the Pac-12. However, of the five opponents that had the most rushing yards against USC this season, three of them came away with victories (UCLA, Utah, and Boston College). USC finished in fourth place in a crowded Pac-12 South where five teams finished 8-4 or better, and the Trojans were just a few plays away from a possible 11-1 finish (three losses by six points or fewer). USC has a terrific trio of offensive playmakers led by QB Cody Kessler, who finished with 36 TD passes and just 4 INT on 70.7% completions. Kessler’s favorite target, Nelson Agholor, caught 97 passes for 1,223 yards and 11 scores while RB Javorius Allen had a breakout campaign of 1,337 rush yards (5.3 YPC) and 9 rush TD. The Trojans scored 30+ points in eight of 12 games and ranked 27th nationally in points per game.


USC appears to have the coaching advantage here as Steve Sarkisian will appear in his first bowl game as head coach of the Trojans. His last bowl win came here in the Holiday Bowl in 2010, when he coached Washington to a victory over Nebraska, 19-7. The Huskers are 1-3 SU & ATS in their last four bowl games, the lone victory coming last year in the Gator Bowl against Georgia. USC will be playing its third consecutive bowl game and first against a B1G opponent since the 2008 Rose Bowl (Penn State). They won last year’s Las Vegas Bowl against Fresno State, 45-20, making them 4-1 SU & ATS in the last four bowl appearances.


Maryland (+14, 48) vs. Stanford
Foster Farms Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 30 - 10:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA


Here we have another B1G team that didn’t exactly end the season with a bang. After starting 4-1 this year, the Terps limped to a 3-4 finish that included losses of 28 points (Ohio State), 45 points (Maryland), 22 points (Michigan State), and 3 points to “rival” Rutgers to end the season. Offensively this team lacked explosiveness all season long. QB CJ Brown finished with just 13 TD and 9 INT while completing 53.2% while also leading the team in rushing with a measly 569 yards (3.8 YPC) and 7 rush TD. Leading WR Stefon Diggs missed the final three games of the season with a lacerated kidney, but reports indicate that he will be ready for this game against Stanford.


Maryland will need all the help it can get on offense against this Cardinal defense that ranked 5th in yards allowed, 7th against the pass, 11th against the rush, and 2nd in scoring defense despite playing some of the most explosive Pac-12 offenses week-to-week. Only two opponents exceeded 20 points against Stanford this season (Oregon & Arizona State) as Stanford held the likes of USC, Notre Dame, Washington State, Cal, and UCLA to just 14.8 PPG. With that defensive prowess, it’s a bit of a surprise that Stanford finished 7-5. The main problem, obviously, was an inept offense. Much like Maryland, the Cardinal struggled to find explosive plays. QB Hogan finished with just 17 TD and 8 INT on the season while the leading rusher, RB Remound Wright, finished with just 552 yards (4.3 YPC) and 8 TD. They were able to find their stride a bit, notching 418 yards and 38 points against Cal and 436 yards and 31 points against UCLA over the final two weeks.


Looks like the oddsmakers expect Stanford’s offense to continue to roll here against a Terrapin defense that ranks 97th in YPG allowed and 83rd in PPG allowed; favoring the Cardinals by 14 points – making Maryland the largest underdog of the bowl season. Maryland has not fared well against other top defenses this season, scoring just 7 points against Wisconsin (4th in total defense) and 15 points against MSU (6th in total defense). Maryland is 4-2 ATS in their last six as a double-digit underdog.


This is just the third bowl appearance since 2008 for the Terps. They lost to Marshall as a 2-point underdog in the Military Bowl last year, 20-31. Stanford is 16-8 ATS in their last 24 as a double-digit underdog, including a 4-1 ATS mark this year. Motivation for the Cardinals is a discussion, considering Stanford has been to four straight BCS Bowls. They lost to Michigan State by four points in the Rose Bowl last year.

 

[CNOTES]

Big Ten Bowl Report - Part 2


December 24, 2014




Big Ten Bowl Games scheduled between Jan. 1 and Jan. 2


Wisconsin (+6, 62) vs. Auburn
Outback Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 1 - 12:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL


It’s difficult to determine the motivation level for each side here in the Outback Bowl. Wisconsin is off of one of the worst losses in program history, and it came on one of the biggest stages – a 59-0 loss in the B1G Championship – and it lost head coach Gary Anderson after that game (former head coach and current AD Barry Alvarez will coach the team in the bowl game). Auburn, on the other hand, had hopes of making a trip to the playoffs after losing the National Championship last year. Instead, the Tigers suffered losses in three of its last four games of the season and didn’t even get a chance to defend its SEC Title. Regardless of motivation, we will see two of the best rush-offenses in the nation go head-to-head. Auburn, led by RB Artis-Payne and QB Marshall, ranked 12th nationally in rush YPG. Artis-Payne and Marshall combined for 2,267 rush yards and 22 rush TD. Marshall, while always a rushing threat, proved his worth as a passer this season as well, finishing with 2,315 pass yards (60.1%) with 18 TD and 7 INT. WR’s D’haquille Williams and Sammie Coates proved to be two of the better deep-play threats in the country, combining to catch 75 passes for 1,447 yards (19.3 YPC) and 9 TD.


Few teams had success slowing this Auburn offense this year, but Wisconsin’s 4th-ranked defense will have a shot on January 1st. The Badgers ranked 5th against the pass, 17th against the rush, and 14th in PPG allowed. Aside from the Ohio State Buckeyes in the B1G Championship, no offense could move the ball with consistency against Wisconsin. For Wisconsin, their offense revolves around RB Melvin Gordon. Gordon amassed an astonishing 2,336 rush yards and 29 total touchdowns this year. Running behind one of the best offensive lines in football, Gordon was too much for most defenses, even when those defenses gameplan was built around stopping the run. One thing that has hampered this offense is the inconsistent play of QB Joel Stave. Stave finished the regular season with 8 TD and 7 INT with just 53.6% completions, culminated by a terrible performance against Ohio State (17-of-43 passing for 187 yards, 0 TD, and 3 INT). Auburn has been vulnerable to the run this season. In their last six games against FBS opponents, the Tigers have allowed 197.5 rush YPG with 13 rush TD over that span (allowed 39 PPG to those six opponents). It’s a solid bet that Auburn will do its best to limit Gordon and this rushing attack to force Stave into some bad decisions.


Wisconsin has dropped four straight bowl games, including three straight Rose Bowls and last year’s Capital One Bowl to South Carolina (last win was in 2009 in the Champ Sports Bowl). Auburn is 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 bowl appearances. One of the losses was last year in the BCS Championship game to Florida State and the other was the 2006 Capital One Bowl to Wisconsin.


Michigan State (+3, 72) vs. Baylor
Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 1 - 12:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX


The 2014 Cotton Bowl is one of the top matchups of the non-playoff version as both Michigan State and Baylor have resume’s worthy of one of the nation’s top teams, but found themselves on the outside looking in on selection day. The Spartans took care of everyone on their schedule save for Oregon and Ohio State, the No. 2 and No. 4 teams in the rankings, respectively. The loss to Ohio State on November 8th knocked them out of contention for a B1G title, but the Spartans continued playing hard and won their final three games of the season by a combined score of 116-28. The offense is led by QB Connor Cook, who had a fantastic season with 2,900 pass yards, 22 TD, and 6 INT. All B1G WR Tony Lippett caught 60 passes for 1,124 yards and 11 touchdowns while RB Jeremy Langford continued to be one of the most reliable ‘backs in the nation, finishing with 1,360 rush yards and 19 TD (nine consecutive games with 100+ rush yards). This offense, specifically QB Cook, should see success moving the football against a suspect Baylor defense. The Bears ranked 104th against the pass this season, surrendering 260 pass YPG with 22 pass TD allowed. Against Texas Tech on November 29th, Baylor allowed 609 pass yards and 6 pass TD in a narrow 48-46 victory.


Baylor was able to hide a lot of its defensive issues with a stout offense. The Bears ranked 1st nationally in yards per game, 5th in passing, 23rd in rushing, and 1st in points per game. QB Bryce Petty should be at full strength for this matchup after tossing for 26 TD, 6 INT, and 3,305 yards (62.1% completions). He’s flanked by RB Shock Linwood, who rushed for 1,226 yards and 16 scores this year as well as a host of capable pass-catchers. Three different receivers finished with 50+ receptions and four finished with 6+ TD receptions. Baylor’s offense is a tough matchup for any team, but Michigan State is as well-equipped as any team to slow them down. Sparty’s defense ranked 6th nationally in yards allowed this season, 6th against the rush and 27th against the pass. Eight of 12 opponents were held to 14 points or fewer as the Spartans also ranked 13th in points per game allowed.


The Spartans have won three straight bowl games, winning outright as the underdog in each of those three games – including the Rose Bowl last season. Baylor is 2-1 SU & ATS in its last three bowl games after its loss to UCF in the Fiesta Bowl last year. Art Briles’ offense has averaged 52.7 PPG in its last three bowl games, but the defense has surrendered 45 PPG in those games as well.


Minnesota (+5.5, 48) vs. Missouri
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 1 - 1:00 p.m. ET (ABC)
Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando, FL


Minnesota followed up last year’s successful 8-5 campaign with an 8-4 record here in 2014. Still it feels like a bit of a letdown considering the Gophers started 6-1 before limping to a 2-3 finished that included an upset loss to Illinois. A loss to rival Wisconsin in the season’s final game sent the Badgers to Indianapolis and the Gophers home, although after we saw what happened to Wisconsin against Ohio State, maybe it was good that the Gophers didn’t participate in that game. Minnesota will be playing a New Year’s Day bowl game for the first time since the 1962 Rose Bowl, so there will be no shortage of motivation for the Gophers here. Minnesota is led by a rushing attack led by bruising RB David Cobb, who broke the school record for rushing yards in a season with 1,548 and 13 rush TD, and QB Mitch Leidner, who tallied 462 rush yards and 10 TD. Minnesota will try to establish its rushing attack to try and neutralize Missouri’s strong pass-rush, which ranked 6th nationally with 40 sacks this season. Also because Leidner isn’t much of a threat in the passing game. He finished with 1,540 passing yards on 49% completions with 10 TD and 8 INT.


Missouri represented the SEC East in the conference championship game for the 2nd consecutive year after a 10-2 finish in the regular season, and for the 2nd consecutive year, they lost in blowout fashion – this time in a 13-42 loss to Alabama. Credit the Tigers for another 10-win campaign, but there aren’t many notable wins on the resume. Six of their seven conference wins were by 10 points or fewer and their “best” win was against a disappointing 7-5 Texas A&M team. That was the lone victory of the season against a team that finished better than .500. Maty Mauk pilots this offense, and he finished with a solid 23-TD, 11-INT campaign. Mauk gets a lot of help from a great receiving corps, led by WR Bud Sasser, who tallied 70 receptions for 935 yards and 10 TD. The backfield consists of Russell Hansbrough and Marcus Murphy sharing carries, as they both combined for 1,737 rush yards and 13 rush TD. Minnesota’s ‘D’ has been susceptible to strong rushing attacks this year; the Gophers allowed 232 rush YPG (5.7 YPC) over the last three weeks against Ohio State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. Missouri will try to replicate that success here. Minnesota was 5-1 ATS as an underdog this year and covered four straight to end the season as a ‘dog.


The Gophers have dropped six straight bowl games including back-to-back years against Texas Tech (2012) and Syracuse (2013) and are 2-4 ATS in those games. Missouri lost to fellow B1G member, Indiana, at home on September 20th. The Tigers have won two straight bowl games, including a 10-point win over No. 13 Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl last year.


Ohio State (+9.5, 58.5) vs. Alabama
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 1 - 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA


With its 59-0 dominating win over Wisconsin in the B1G Championship, the Buckeyes convinced the playoff committee that they were worthy of a spot in the final four. The offense has been absolutely unstoppable for much of the season as OSU has averaged 48.5 PPG in 11 games since scoring a season-low 21 points in the lone loss to Virginia Tech on September 6th. Many expected this offense to take a step back when QB J.T. Barrett broke his ankle in the regular season finale against Michigan, but third-string QB Cardale Jones stepped in for the B1G Championship and didn’t miss a beat, tossing for 257 yards, 3 TD, and 0 INT in his first career start against a good Wisconsin defense. It helps Jones’ cause that he’s surrounded by one of the most talented rosters in the nation. RB Elliott is a burner in the backfield as he averaged 6.5 YPC on 1,402 rushing yards with 12 TD and there’s a bevy of talented receivers to throw to. WR Devin Smith is the big-play target as he caught 30 balls for 799 yards and 11 TD for an average of 26.6 yards per reception.


With all that said, Ohio State will face its toughest test of the season against an Alabama defense that is riddled with future NFL-ers. Defensively Alabama ranks 11st in total yards allowed, 2nd against the run, and 4th in points per game allowed. Auburn was the only team that exceeded 23 points against this Tide defense and seven of 13 opponents were held to 14 points or fewer. Alabama’s offense has been just as good as its defense. QB Blake Sims had a breakout campaign in which he tossed for 3,236 yards (64.7%) with 25 TD and just 7 INT. The “Thunder & Lightning” RB combo of Henry & Yeldon combined for 1,827 rush yards and 20 TD. The biggest threat on this offense – and that’s saying something – is WR Amari Cooper, whose 115 catches, 1,656 receiving yards, and 14 touchdowns earned him a trip to New York as a finalist for the Heisman trophy. OSU does a good job of getting after the quarterback (40 sacks to lead the B1G), thus limiting big-play potential and increasing turnover potential (21 INT’s led the B1G). OSU’s defense hasn’t been tested a whole lot this season, but a similar matchup would be its showdown with Michigan State. The Spartans gained 536 total yards, including 178 rushing yards (5.2 YPC) and 358 passing yards. Overall the Buckeyes rank 15th in yards per game allowed, 17th against the pass, and 23rd in points allowed.


Alabama head coach Nick Saban is one of four coaches in the nation to have beaten OSU coach Urban Meyer more than once. Saban went 2-1 SU & ATS against Meyer’s Florida Gators from 2008-2010. The last meeting, in 2010, was a convincing win for the Tide that sent Alabama to the BCS Championship. Alabama is 4-1 SU & ATS in its last five bowl games, but lost last year’s Sugar Bowl against Oklahoma as a 15-point favorite. Ohio State has dropped its last two bowl games, including last year’s Orange Bowl against Clemson as a 2-point favorite.


Iowa (+3.5, 51) vs. Tennessee
TaxSlayer Bowl
Friday, Jan. 2 - 3:20 p.m ET (ESPN)
Everbank Field, Jacksonville, FL


Iowa lost back-to-back heartbreakers at home to close out the season. First, with the B1G West title still within reach, the Hawkeyes fell by two points to Wisconsin. Then they hosted Nebraska in the new end-of-season rivalry game and lost by three points in overtime despite holding a 17-point lead late in the 3rd quarter. Motivation, or lack thereof, will be a factor here as the Hawkeyes were a trendy underdog pick to win the division and a fourth place finish seems like a major letdown. We’re not even sure how “good” Iowa is this year. Their wins came against teams with a combined 29-43 record – none with a record above .500. Offensively this team is limited. Jake Rudock finished with a solid 16 pass TD and just 5 INT, which is a major accomplishment considering his lack of receiving weapons. Leading rusher Mark Weisman had 14 rush TD, but had only 802 yards on 3.9 yards per carry.


This offense won’t have many easy yards against a Tennessee defensive unit that improved greatly as the year progressed. The Vols finished 35th in YPG allowed, 29th against the pass, and 40th in PPG allowed. Tennessee isn’t nearly as bad as the 6-6 record indicates. They played a brutal schedule where only two of 11 FBS opponents didn’t qualify for a bowl. Their six losses came against teams with a combined 54-19 record and three of the losses – three-point loss to Georgia, one-point loss to Florida, and eight-point loss to Missouri – could’ve easily gone in Tennessee’s favor. The offense was inconsistent as the Vols had to replace five starters on the offensive line from last year and integrate QB Joshua Dobbs midway through the season after Justin Worley’s injury. Dobbs showed flashes of brilliance but also made too many mistakes. He finished with 8 TD passes and 5 INT and proved he’s a dual threat with 393 rush yards and 6 rush TD. Freshman RB Jalen Hurd led the team in rushing with 777 yards on 4.5 YPC with 3 TD, but the Vols have little rushing threat to speak of, and rushing yards won’t come easy against this Hawkeyes defense that ranks 19th in YPG allowed.


Iowa has now dropped back-to-back bowl games after losing last year’s Outback Bowl to LSU, 14-21, but the Hawks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 bowl appearances. This will be Tennessee’s first bowl appearance since 2010, so most players will be playing in their first ever postseason game.

 

[CNOTES]

Bowl Breakdown - Part 2



Bahamas Bowl - Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky
Wednesday, Dec. 24, 12:00 p.m. ET
Bahamas Bowl Betting Line: Western Kentucky -3

The Hilltoppers were awesome to watch this year, as they flew up and down the field and really had the ability to stop no one on the other side of the ball. Brandon Doughty is one of the better statistical quarterbacks in th nation, and he could shine in this one. Central Michigan's 7-5 record is a complete farce outside of its win on the road against Northern Illinois.

Hawaii Bowl - Fresno State vs. Rice
Wednesday, Dec. 24, 8:00 p.m. ET
Hawaii Bowl Betting Line: Rice -1.5

Fresno State has no defense whatsoever, and this could be a huge problem in this game against a Rice offense which really has the ability to light it up. The last time we saw the Owls, they had 76 points dropped on them by Louisiana Tech. Driphus Jackson will have to have the game of his life for Rice in this one.

Heart of Dallas Bowl - Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech
Friday, Dec. 26, 1:00 p.m. ET
Heart of Dallas Bowl Betting Line: Louisiana Tech -6

Illinois feels like a weird team in a bowl game this year. The Illini went 6-6, but they only just squeaked into a bowl game because of the weaknesses of the rest of the Big Ten. La Tech was just short of the MAC title, but this might be an even better game for it to try to prove itself against one of the power conference teams in the nation.

Quick Lane Bowl - Rutgers vs. North Carolina
Friday, Dec. 26, 4:30 p.m. ET
Quick Lane Bowl Betting Line: North Carolina -3

Expect to see a lot of offense in this one, as these two defenses both struggled quite a bit this year. Marquise Williams and Gary Nova don't look anything like one another, but they both hold the keys to their teams' success in this game at Ford Field.

St. Petersburg Bowl - NC State vs. UCF
Friday, Dec. 26, 8:00 p.m. ET
St. Petersburg Bowl Betting Line: UCF -2

The Knights are taking a big step backwards from last year's game against Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl, but this is still a big game for them after getting a share of the AAC crown this year. NC State ended up being a rather average team in the ACC, and it doesn't really have any signature wins which suggest to us that it can win this game.

 

[CNOTES]

Friday's Top Action


December 24, 2014




Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-5)


Heart of Dallas Bowl
Cotton Bowl Stadium - Dallas, TX
Kickoff: Friday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Louisiana Tech -6, Total: 58


After winning two straight games to reach six victories, Illinois tries to extend the win surge at the Heart of Dallas Bowl against Louisiana Tech on Friday.


The Illini really struggled in the first 10 games of the year, as they went 3-7 ATS and managed just four SU wins. They put things together at the right time though, with victories as the underdog against both Penn State and Northwestern, and winning by an average of 8.0 PPG. Part of their success was being able to secure the football, as they did not turn over the pigskin in any of the final three contests. They last made a bowl in back-to-back seasons (2010 and 2011) while winning each time (SU and ATS) by an average of 15.0 PPG.


The Bulldogs did well enough to earn a spot opposite Marshall in the C-USA championship game after being 7-1 SU in conference action, and finished a strong 10-3 ATS overall. They nearly earned an upset win against the Thundering Herd on Dec. 6 as 8.5-point underdogs in a 26-23 loss while forcing four turnovers, but could not get past the double-digit win program. Much of Louisiana Tech's solid play stemmed from its ability to create turnovers, as it racked up the most takeaways in FBS with 40.


The Bulldogs' last postseason appearance came in 2011 at the Poinsettia Bowl as 9.5-point underdogs against TCU when they wound up on the wrong side of a tight contest, losing 31-24. These teams did meet recently in 2012 and played an ugly 52-24 game with Louisiana Tech coming away the victor as the 3-point road underdog. There were nine total turnovers between the two clubs, as Illinois fumbled five times while adding an interception.


Some trends to keep an eye on for Friday include that the Fighting Illini are 7-5 ATS (58%) after a game where they committed one or less turnovers in the past three seasons, while being a poor 21-42 ATS (33%) after a game where they forced 3+ turnovers since 1992. There are no significant injuries to either school in this one that could affect the outcome of the game.


Illinois had a solid passing attack this season (243.2 YPG), but failed to do much of anything with its ground game (117.1 YPG, 15th-worst in FBS) and scored a mere 26.6 PPG. QB Reilly O’Toole (1,049 pass yards, 9 TD, 7 INT) started for this team in each of the final two wins while averaging 152 YPG with 4 TD and 1 INT. He also made a big difference with his ability to run the ball as he had 147 rushing yards on 21 attempts (7.0 YPC) in the Nov. 29 win over Northwestern on the road.


HB Josh Ferguson (685 rush yards, 8 TD) has averaged 4.9 YPC on the year, and he is coming off a solid performance (95 rush yards, 2 TD) against Northwestern to cap off the 2014 regular season. He was a big part of the receiving game as well with 44 catches for 373 yards (8.5 avg) and 2 TD. The toughest matchup on this offensive unit is WR Mike Dudek (965 rec yards, 6 TD) who had three scores in the final three games and managed two games over 100 yards on the year.


LB Mason Monheim (108 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack, 1 TD) and DB Zane Petty (104 tackles) have done their best to solidify this defense, but it has just not worked, as the unit is surrendering 33.9 PPG (19th-worst in nation) and 464.3 YPG of offense (14th-worst in FBS).


Louisiana Tech’s offense looked solid for a majority of the season, finishing with 37.5 PPG (13th in FBS) behind 242.6 passing YPG and 151.1 rushing YPG. QB Cody Sokol (3,189 pass yards, 29 TD, 13 INT) has been great in his senior year with three games over 300 passing yards in the final six games while performing poorly in the C-USA championship game against Marshall. In that contest he was a mere 7-for-20 (35%) for only 72 yards and tossed an interception.


HB Kenneth Dixon (1,236 rush yards, 21 TD) averaged 133 YPG over the past three games while getting into the end zone 10 times in the final four contests. Dixon was able to get some big plays in the passing game as well this season, totaling 306 yards on 26 catches (11.8 avg) and five touchdowns.


WR Trent Taylor (814 rec yards, 9 TD) was the clear No. 1 receiver in this offense and scored seven of his nine touchdowns over the final five games. He also had two performances with 110+ receiving yards.


The defense for the Bulldogs did well this season in giving up 25.2 PPG to their opponents, as they were tremendous against the run (117.9 YPG, 15th in FBS). DBs Xavier Woods (62 tackles, 5 INT, 1 TD) and Adairius Barnes (44 tackles, 5 INT, 4 TFL) were able to create plenty of turnovers, and will once again be spotlighted as they look to make some big plays.


Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-5) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6)


Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field - Detroit, MI
Kickoff: Friday, 4:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: North Carolina -3, Total: 67


North Carolina tries to finish its season with a winning record when it collides with Rutgers on Friday in Detroit for the Quick Lane Bowl.


These two teams have built up nice momentum with Rutgers erasing a 25-point deficit to win at Maryland in its regular-season finale, and North Carolina finishing 4-2 (SU and ATS) in the second half of the season. The Scarlet Knights don't have a 500-yard rusher on their roster, but junior WR Leonte Carroo has given opponents fits all year with 10 TD grabs and a hefty 19.7 yards per catch. The Tar Heels got a strong season out of dual-threat QB Marquise Williams, but he threw only 3 TD passes in his final four games.


Both defenses have struggled, especially on the road where Rutgers allows 40.5 PPG and 496 total YPG, while UNC surrenders 44.0 PPG on 525 total YPG. While the Knights are 31-15 ATS in away non-conference games since 1992, the Tar Heels are 16-6 ATS in this same timeframe in non-home games off a conference home loss.


While Rutgers will be without DB Kiy Hester (personal) and top RB Desmon Peoples (undisclosed) is doubtful, North Carolina may not have questionable DB Ryan Mangum (undisclosed), but RB Elijah Hood (undisclosed) has been upgraded to probable for Friday.


Rutgers scores only 25.6 PPG on 379 total YPG this season, but has been better in non-home games (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) with 26.2 PPG on 391.5 total YPG. Defensively is where the school really struggles though, allowing 30.9 PPG on 440 total YPG (6.5 yards per play). The Knights gain 148 rushing YPG (4.0 YPC) and 231 passing YPG (8.2 YPA), but they allow 213 rushing YPG (5.6 YPC) and 228 passing YPG (7.7 YPA).


Senior QB Gary Nova (2,667 pass yards, 8.7 YPA, 20 TD, 12 INT) is coming off a monster game at Maryland on Nov. 29 when he threw for 347 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions. That was quite a turnaround from the 3 TD and 5 INT that he amassed in his previous five games combined.


His main target is WR Leonte Carroo (53 rec, 1,043 yards, 10 TD), who has six 100-yard receiving efforts and three multi-touchdown performances this season. He caught six passes for 104 yards and two scores in the last game at Maryland. Sophomore WR Janarion Grant (25 rec, 312 yards, 0 TD) also had a big day against the Terrapins with eight receptions for 105 yards.


With top RB Desmon Peoples (447 rush yards, 3.9 YPC, 3 TD) unlikely to play, the bulk of the rushing workload will reside with freshman RB Robert Martin (334 rush yards, 4.9 YPC, 5 TD) who has rushed for 208 yards (5.2 YPC) and 4 TD in his past three games. The Knights need to be more careful with the football on Friday, as they have at least one turnover in 11 of 12 games this season, including five giveaways in the past two contests. The defense has only three multi-takeaway efforts in the past 10 games.


North Carolina's offense has scored a hefty 34.3 PPG (33rd in nation), thanks in large part to an air attack gaining 279.3 YPG (24th in FBS) and much smaller part to the ground game with 146.2 rushing YPG on 3.8 YPC. The defense has really hurt this program though, as it allows 38.9 PPG overall (119th in nation) on 496 total YPG (6.4 yards per play). The Heels have been hurt in both facets, as they surrender 232 rushing YPG (5.0 YPC) and 263 passing YPG (8.5 YPA).


Junior QB Marquise Williams (2,870 pass yards, 7.3 YPA, 20 TD, 9 INT) is coming off his worst game of the season in the 35-7 defeat versus NC State (11-of-22, 97 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT), but has thrown for more than 275 yards in five of his past nine games, while tossing multiple TD passes seven times during the 2014 season. Williams is also the team's leading rusher with 737 yards (4.1 YPC) and 12 TD on the ground.


The team will try to get RB T.J. Logan (472 rush yards, 4.5 YPC, 3 TD) back on track after he gained a mere 11 yards on six touches in the last game, which was a far cry from his 271 total yards and 2 TD in his previous two contests. UNC has a host of talented receivers with four players surpassing 400 yards through the air. Sophomore WRs Ryan Switzer (55 rec, 703 yards, 4 TD) and Mack Hollins (34 rec, 611 yards, 18.0 avg, 8 TD) are the top targets for Williams, but the duo combined for just 36 yards on six catches in the Nov. 29 loss. North Carolina has committed multiple turnovers in 6-of-12 games this year, but has also forced multiple turnovers five times during the 2014 season.


North Carolina State Wolfpack (7-5) vs. Central Florida Knights (9-3)


St. Petersburg Bowl
Tropicana Field - St. Petersburg, FL
Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: UCF -2, Total: 49


Two schools looking to extend their win streaks meet in Friday's St. Petersburg Bowl when NC State faces American Athletic Conference co-champion Central Florida.


Both schools closed out the regular season on a high with wins as 6.5-point underdogs. NC State won three of its final four games (SU and ATS) by playing turnover-free football in all three victories. The school has also won two of its past three bowl games.


UCF finished with four straight wins (SU and ATS), capped off by a pair of road victories at South Florida and East Carolina thanks to a final-play Hail Mary. This school is riding a three-game bowl win streak, including a 52-42 upset of 17-point favorite Baylor in the Jan. 1 Fiesta Bowl.


Wolfpack QB Jacoby Brissett threw 22 TD and only 5 INT this season, and also rushed for 498 yards, but it's not easy piling up yards versus a Knights team allowing a mere 17.9 PPG this season, good for ninth-best in the nation. Both teams won three road games this season, and both won big at South Florida, with NC State prevailing 49-17, and UCF winning 16-0.


The Wolfpack are 22-10 ATS in non-home games after a bye week since 1992, while the Knights are 10-0 ATS in the past two seasons after playing their previous game on the road.


The only significant injury for either team is Central Florida G Joey Grant, who is listed as doubtful with a shoulder injury.


NC State has a very balanced offense with 206 rushing YPG (37th in nation) on 5.4 YPC and 196 passing YPG, leading to 29.8 PPG. The offense has also done well in its five road games (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) by chewing up the clock for 32:54 in time of possession and outgaining these hosts by 56 yards per game.


QB Jacoby Brissett (2,344 pass yards, 6.8 YPA, 22 TD, 5 INT) has not only thrown the ball exceptionally well, but has chewed up 498 rushing yards (4.5 YPC) and three scores for the season. This includes his 167 yards on just 14 carries (11.9 YPC) in the upset at North Carolina on Nov. 29.


The team's main ball carrier is junior Shadrach Thornton (811 rush yards, 5.5 YPC, 9 TD) who closed out the regular season with back-to-back games of 110+ rushing yards and one touchdown. When Brissett does drop back to pass, he'll first look for WR Bo Hines (42 rec, 537 yards, 1 TD), who is the only wideout on NC State with at least 350 receiving yards. Sophomore TE David Grinnage (25 rec, 331 yards, 5 TD) is the main red-zone threat with his 6-foot-5, 269-pound frame.


On defense, the Wolfpack allow a pedestrian 27.0 PPG (68th in nation), while giving up only 197 passing YPG and 176 rushing YPG. Although they were unable to stop Georgia Tech's triple option that hung 479 rushing yards on NC State on Nov. 8, since that date, the Wolfpack have held their two opponents to 88 rushing yards on 63 carries (1.4 YPC). They have also done a great job of forcing turnovers with eight takeaways in the past four games.


Central Florida's offense scores only 28.2 PPG (including 21.3 PPG away from home) and gains 362.8 total YPG. This is split into a breakdown of 132 rushing YPG (3.2 YPC) and 231 passing YPG. It has been the defense that has carried this club, allowing only 17.9 PPG on 282.8 total YPG (4.3 yards per play).


Sophomore QB Justin Holman (2,661 pass yards, 7.9 YPA, 20 TD, 13 INT) has stepped in admirably this year for the departed Blake Bortles, throwing at least one touchdown pass in all 12 games this season. Holman has been helped greatly by the presence of RB William Stanback (659 rush yards, 3.7 YPC, 10 TD), who after a two-game absence, made his triumphant return on Dec. 4 in East Carolina with 101 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) to help the Knights pull off the stunning victory as 6.5-point underdogs.


Central Florida also has another star in junior WR Breshad Perriman (906 rec yards, 9 TD), who is a beast to bring down with his 6-foot-3 frame and averages 22.1 yards per reception. Perriman was on the receiving end of Holman's 51-yard TD pass on the final play of the Dec. 4 win at ECU. That 32-30 win gave the Knights a share of the conference title with Memphis. Turnovers have been a problem for the Knights this year, as they have at least one giveaway in nine straight games, totaling 23 miscues in this stretch. But the UCF defense has been the equalizer with eight games of at least two takeaways.