Cnotes 2014-15 Bowl Betting Results - Trends -Stats- Best Bets Bowl Season Thread !

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Godaddy.com Bowl, Mobile, 1/4
Seniors who red-shirted a year at Arkansas State had a different coach in all five years of college, in addition to two other interim coaches for bowl games. Red Wolves are in this bowl for 4th year in row, winning last two by 17-13/23-20 scores. Underdogs won/covered this bowl three of last four years, with last three staying under total. Over last six years, MAC bowl favorites are 2-5-1 vs spread; they're 1-10 SU in bowls last couple years. Toledo is 2-3 in last five bowls, allowing 38.7 ppg in last three; Rockets won four of last five games, are 1-3-1 vs spread in games with a single digit spread. ASU is 3-2 in games with single digit spread.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Sunday, January 4

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GoDaddy Bowl betting preview: Toledo vs. Arkansas State
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Toledo Rockets vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (+3.5, 68.5)

Arkansas State makes its fourth consecutive appearance in the GoDaddy Bowl when the Red Wolves face Toledo in Mobile, Ala. Toledo won seven of its final nine regular-season games, but the Rockets will be tested by a Red Wolves team that has compiled 35 victories over the past four seasons. Arkansas State is seeking its third straight GoDaddy Bowl victory after beating Ball State 23-20 last season.

Toledo is led by the running back tandem of Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson, who combined for more than 2,000 rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns. Hunt finished second in the nation in yards per carry at 7.9. The duo will likely receive a heavy workload against an Arkansas State squad that ranks 91st nationally in run defense at 191.9 yards per game.

Both teams struggled in non-conference play this season, with Toledo allowing a total of 107 points in back-to-back losses to Missouri and Cincinnati. The Rockets also fell 37-30 to an Iowa State team that finished 2-10. Arkansas State lost to Tennessee and Miami before recording an impressive 21-14 overtime win over Utah State on Sept. 20.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened Toledo -2.5 and the Rockets are now -3.5. The total opened at 67 and is up to 68.5.

INJURIES: Toledo - DB Jordan Haden (Out, abdominal). Arkansas State - DB Charleston Girley (Probable, wrist).

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow toward the south endzone at 10 mph.

ABOUT TOLEDO (8-4 SU, 4-7-1 ATS, 7-5 O/U): Hunt missed three games with an ankle injury but still rushed for 1,360 yards and 11 touchdowns for the Rockets, who average 34.4 points per game. Quarterback Logan Woodside, who threw for 19 scores with seven interceptions, finished the regular season on a high note with a career-high five touchdown passes in a 52-16 victory over Eastern Michigan. Linebacker Junior Sylvestre recorded a team-high 94 tackles and leads a unit that ranked 11th in the MAC in pass defense.

ABOUT ARKANSAS STATE (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS, 8-4 O/U): Dual-threat quarterback Fredi Knighten passed for 2,874 yards with 19 touchdowns and seven interceptions, and has also rushed for 775 yards and 11 scores. The dynamic junior accounted for 449 total yards and four touchdowns in a 68-35 victory over New Mexico State in the Red Wolves’ regular-season finale. Linebacker Qushaun Lee and cornerback Artez Brown each had four interceptions to lead the defense, which allowed an average of 39 points in its last three games

TRENDS:

* Rockets are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
* Red Wolves are 12-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 5-0 in Rockets last five non-conference games.
* Over is 7-0 in Red Wolves last seven games overall.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 55 percent of bettors are backing Toledo.

 

[CNOTES]

GoDaddy Bowl


January 3, 2015




Toledo Rockets (8-4) vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5)


GoDaddy.com Bowl
Ladd-Peebles Stadium - Mobile, AL
Kickoff: Sunday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Toledo -3.5, Total: 68


Arkansas State will once again close out its season in Mobile, AL when it faces Toledo in Sunday's GoDaddy.com Bowl.


This will be the Red Wolves' fourth straight trip to the GoDaddy.com Bowl, as they are 2-1 (SU and ATS) in Mobile. Arkansas State QB Fredi Knighten leads a high-powered offense that averaged 44.0 PPG and 518.7 YPG over its final seven regular-season games.


The Rockets finished their regular season on a high note, winning two straight and four of five SU, including a 27-20 win over MAC East champion Bowling Green. Their offense was held below 400 yards in a game just once this season.


Sophomore RB Kareem Hunt rushed for 100+ yards in all nine of his games, including 148 rushing yards and three touchdowns against SEC East champion Missouri.


Although the Red Wolves are a miserable 0-11 ATS after gaining 300+ rushing yards in their previous game since 1992, they are also 7-0 ATS on the road versus good offenses (5.9+ yards per play) over the past three years.


Each team has only one injury of concern, as Toledo DB Jordan Haden (abdominal) is expected to miss Sunday's game, while Arkansas State DB Charleston Girley (wrist) has been upgraded to probable.


Toledo is a top-notch rushing team with 247.3 YPG (17th in nation), but it also throws the ball adequately with 239.8 YPG (56th in FBS), leading to 34.4 PPG (30th in nation).


QB Logan Woodside (2,096 pass yards, 7.8 YPA, 19 TD, 7 INT) has been up and down this season, but he was phenomenal in the regular-season finale at Eastern Michigan when he completed 14-of-18 passes for 323 yards (17.9 YPA), 5 TD and 0 INT.


Only two Rockets players have at least 300 receiving yards this season, WRs Corey Jones (821 rec yards, 5 TD) and Alonzo Russell (721 rec yards, 8 TD). Jones has eclipsed 100 receiving yards in four of his past eight games, but Russell has topped 55 yards just once in the past seven contests, when he gained 93 yards on just two catches at EMU.


But this offense revolves around RB Kareem Hunt (1,360 rush yards, 7.9 YPC, 11 TD) who has caught only eight passes all season, but has rushed for an average of 151.1 yards per game. Hunt has carried the football 52 times in his past two contests and will likely get another monster workload to close out the season.


The Rockets have allowed 29.3 PPG this season (86th in FBS), due mostly to their horrible pass defense allowing 284 YPG on 7.6 YPA. But Toledo knows how to stuff the run, holding opponents to 120 rushing YPG on 3.6 YPC.


Arkansas State is also a strong rushing team with 229.0 YPG (24th in FBS), while also passing for a respectable 248.2 YPG (51st in nation), leading to 36.1 PPG (22nd in FBS).


RB Michael Gordon (1,064 rush yards, 7.1 YPC, 13 TD in 10 games) is the main ball carrier with five 100-yard rushing efforts in the past eight games.


But dual-threat QB Fredi Knighten (2,874 pass yards, 7.2 YPA, 19 TD, 7 INT) has totaled multiple touchdowns in seven of his past eight games. He has rushed for 774 yards (4.0 YPC) and 11 TD this season, including a season-high 153 rushing yards and 2 TD in the team's most recent game, a 68-35 blowout win over New Mexico State.


When Knighten looks to pass, he most often targets a trio of WRs Dijon Paschal (642 rec yards, 4 TD), Tres Houston (607 rec yards, 3 TD) and J.D. McKissic (530 rec yards, 0 TD). The freshman Paschal started his career slowly with only 19.5 receiving YPG in his first four games, but has averaged an impressive 70.5 receiving YPG in his past eight contests.


Defensively, the Red Wolves are subpar, allowing 27.7 PPG (77th in nation), and aren't particular strong defending either method of offense, allowing 192 rushing YPG (4.5 YPC) and 219 passing YPG (6.9 YPA) this season.

 

[CNOTES]

CFB > (277) OHIO ST@ (278) OREGON | 01/12/2015 - 08:30 PM
Play OVER OHIO ST on the total in all games
The record is 12 Overs and 2 Unders for the this season (+9.8 units)

CFB > (277) OHIO ST@ (278) OREGON | 01/12/2015 - 08:30 PM
Play ON OREGON using the against the spread when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 12 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)


CFB > (277) OHIO ST@ (278) OREGON | 01/12/2015 - 08:30 PM
Play ON OREGON in the first half when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 12 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)


CFB > (277) OHIO ST @ (278) OREGON | 01/12/2015 - 08:30 PM
Line: OREGON -6.5 StatFox PowerLine: OREGON -12
Edge On: OREGON (5.5)

 

[CNOTES]

Ducks and Bucks settle into 'weird' week


January 7, 2015


EUGENE, Ore. (AP) - Oregon is treating this week like any other this season. And while that's more comfortable in a way, it also feels a little odd.


After all, the Ducks are preparing to face Ohio State in the national championship game Monday night at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The two teams are the first to experience a season stretched out for one more game by college football's new playoff system.


Both teams have already had their bowl games and all the hoopla that goes with that, so this is more of a business trip, said Oregon senior safety Erick Dargan. A really important business trip.


''It's just like a regular week. I think that actually plays more to our advantage than having a lot of time,'' Dargan said. ''We're back in our groove.''


The Ducks (13-1) routed Florida State 59-20 in the Rose Bowl, while the Buckeyes (13-1) beat Alabama 42-35 in the Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day, paving the way for the championship 11 days later.


Upon arrival for the game in Pasadena, second-seeded Oregon was involved in all the customary Rose Bowl activities, including the obligatory visit to Disneyland for the photo op with Mickey Mouse.


They had essentially already done their work: There had been 26 days between the team's regular-season finale and the Granddaddy of Them All. That gave the Ducks plenty of time to scheme for the Seminoles and quarterback Jameis Winston.


The fourth-seeded Buckeyes were similarly prepared upon arrival in New Orleans, giving them time for events like a dinner that featured entertainment from a couple of alligators and a python.


Adding the national championship as a 15th game presents some unique challenges for coaches and their players - like guarding against fatigue or injury.


''I was talking to someone earlier and they said it's been like 25 weeks. I guess it is just part of the grind. Part of our job is taking care of your body and making sure you're ready to go when you're number is called,'' said Ohio State senior receiver Evan Spencer.


Buckeyes coach Urban Meyer led a former team, Florida, to national championships in 2006 and 2008. There wasn't a lot of comparison he could offer.


''Practices are a little different. Those ones, we had 37 days to prepare. I remember in `06 it was 37 or 47, some ridiculous number; `06 was the first one removed from the traditional bowl date,'' he said.


This one, Meyer said, ''is a one game shot that really, you have four practices in shoulder pads.''


Oregon was keeping everything the same as during the regular season. Same practice times, same meeting schedule. The Ducks, like the Buckeyes, leave Friday for the Dallas area.


''We understand what we're playing for. But the nice thing is that guys who haven't been in a game like this - not many of us have - it makes it easier to treat it like a regular game,'' Oregon center Hroniss Grasu said.


Coach Mark Helfrich was one of those who called it all odd. But in a good way.


''It's weird in some sense: It's obviously not just another game, but it's sort of just another week of fall. We're in school, they're not, so that's a little bit of nuance to it. But we've had a plan for this and built a plan for this last summer and our guys have done a phenomenal job of executing our long-term plan,'' he said.


''Logistically, the time of day and how we're practicing, all that stuff is the same. But obviously what we're doing during that time is different from when you are in Week 1 or Week 26, or whatever it is now.''

 

[CNOTES]

OSU RB Elliott looks to make big plays


January 7, 2015


COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) - Ezekiel Elliott's eyes saw running room ahead. It was what was behind him that concerned him the most.


As the Ohio State back scissored through a hole around left end and broke into the clear down the sideline in the Sugar Bowl, he knew he had no one in front of him. Just in case, he glanced up at the gigantic video board above the end zone to make sure no one from Alabama was gaining on him.


''I'm looking up at the Jumbotron and seeing the guys behind me, if they're close enough so I could slow down a little bit,'' he said, grinning.


They weren't. Elliott's stunning run, covering 85 yards with 3:24 left, proved to be the padding the Buckeyes needed in a 42-35 victory that pushed them into the Jan. 12 national championship game against Oregon in Arlington, Texas.


It'll be hard for Elliott to spy on his pursuers at AT&T Stadium, because the video boards are overhead and not at the ends of the field.


But Elliott has a plan for that, too. He cites a reluctant running star (for Alabama) in a legendary film.


''(I'm) just going to have to GO! Run, Forrest, run!'' he said, laughing.


Odds are the millions at home and 108,610 fans in the Sugar Bowl watching Elliott's eyes staring at the video board didn't know much about the sophomore from St. Louis. Soft-spoken and self-effacing, the first-year starter will be much better known and more of a focal point when the Buckeyes meet the Ducks on Jan. 12.


He's more than a runner, too. He's also a great blocker, although few beyond his teammates even notice.


''Ezekiel Elliott plays as hard as any back I've ever witnessed without the ball,'' coach Urban Meyer said.


Taking over for the graduated Carlos Hyde and his 1,521 yards a year ago, Elliott has followed a get-to-know-you freshman year by rushing for 1,632 yards and 14 touchdowns - including a jaw-dropping 220 yards on 20 carries against Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game with 230 more again on 20 carries against the Crimson Tide. And he spent the year having trouble gripping the ball after breaking a bone in his left hand during August camp.


Only three Ohio State backs have ever gained more yards in a season (Eddie George had 1,927 while winning the Heisman Trophy in 1995, Keith Byars had 1,764 in '84 and revered two-time Heisman winner Archie Griffin had 1,695 in '74).


''He (reads blocking patterns) instinctively and then explodes into open seams,'' Ed Warinner, Ohio State's line coach and co_offensive coordinator said. ''He loves football and plays every snap like it's his last.''


Elliott's dad, Stacy, played football at Missouri, and his mom, Dawn, was a member of the track and field team. It seemed a foregone conclusion that the four-star prospect, who led his high school to the state title game as a senior while rushing for 2,155 yards, would go to nearby Mizzou.


But he visited Ohio State, fell in love with the campus and Ohio's passion for all things Buckeye. He never really looked back. His parents had no problem with the choice.


Now, Elliott's glance at the video board is prominent on Ohio State's athletic website - and could end up being the signature moment of the Buckeyes' season.


Some were surprised that someone from the lumbering Big Ten could outrun players from the Southeastern Conference.


''Somebody asked me about SEC speed. I just was, like, what is SEC speed?'' he said of his sprint, in which he appeared to be pulling away at the end. ''Every conference has speed. Coach Meyer really recruits speed. I don't know why that was supposed to be such a big deal.''


It was receiver Evan Spencer who not only wiped out two defenders with a crunching block on Elliott's long run, but also had the closest view of how the play unfolded.


''I was supposed to go in motion and (quarterback Cardale Jones) checked the play and I just didn't see it. So I went in there and I was kind of in a panic mode,'' Spencer said. ''I saw the guy I was supposed to hit, so I went in there and tried to clean him up to the best of my ability. Then I felt two dudes hit me and all of a sudden the crowd's going wild and I looked up and (Elliott) was gone. I tried to run after them and celebrate.''


No one caught him, regardless of the color of their uniform, until he watched himself enter the end zone.

 

[CNOTES]

Buckeyes don't believe they're underdogs


January 8, 2015


COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) - Offensive tackle Taylor Decker doesn't believe that Ohio State is an underdog to Oregon in the national championship game on Monday.


In fact, Decker refuses to recognize that anything so outlandish is even possible.


''I know Vegas or ESPN or whatever has us as a 7- or 9-point underdog or something like that but we are not,'' Decker said, clearly agitated. ''We are not an underdog. Ohio State is never going to be an underdog, and that is just how it is.''


Oddsmakers in Las Vegas have the Ducks as a 6 1/2-point favorite, a spread driven up from an initial straight-up pick by bettors backing Oregon. Many TV pundits also like Oregon to grab the inaugural playoff crown.


Meanwhile, the Buckeyes take it personally, privately and sometimes publicly seething while awaiting a chance to prove people wrong in a third consecutive game - the third of four games this season Ohio State will play as an underdog.


Wisconsin was favored over the Buckeyes in the Big Ten championship game. The Badgers did not cover the 3 1/2-point spread, however, losing 59-0. Then, Alabama was an 8-point favorite pick to win the Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day against the Buckeyes. Ohio State came out on top 42-35.


It's been a driving force all season for Ohio State: Somebody puts them down or praises an opponent and next thing you know, the Buckeyes are celebrating when they leave the field.


That was the case in their biggest win of the regular season, when they were 3 1/2-point underdogs traveling to No. 8 Michigan State on Nov. 8, then beat the Spartans by 12 points.


''Everyone chose us to lose. We took that to heart. We went out there and played,'' said Ohio State defensive tackle Adolphus Washington. ''It was a good thing to carry over throughout the rest of the season.''


The Buckeyes, like Oregon a winner in 13 of 14 starts, have won a nation's best 12 games in a row since a dismal 35-21 loss to Virginia Tech in its second game.


They're 9-5 against the spread this year (compared with Oregon at 10-4 against the spread), and face two big elements swaying public perception toward the Ducks in the national championship game, gambling expert R.J. Bell of Pregame.com said.


Oregon is appealing to bettors because it plays fast, scores a lot of points, and just beat a team that hadn't lost in two years, Bell said. Meanwhile, some bettors perceive the Big Ten as a second-rate conference in college football - teams in the conference were underdogs in all 10 bowl games played so far this year before the title game, Bell said.


''It's just very unusual that it would fall this way,'' Bell said. ''It's really a perfect storm of public bias.''


It makes most of the Buckeyes angry.


''Shocker. That's a shock that we're the underdogs again even after we beat the No. 1 team in the nation,'' said linebacker Darron Lee. ''But, hey, whatever.''


Safety Tyvis Powell also bristles at the mention of the `u' word.


''We still don't get the respect that we deserve,'' he said. ''I've seen some things on the Internet where, like, 66 percent of the world is picking Oregon. I mean I understand why, everybody sees Oregon and they're like, `Oh, wow.' But it's just motivation to come out here and make sure we get the job done.''


Others are disinterested in what others say or think.


''I don't care if we're the underdogs or favorites,'' quarterback Cardale Jones said. ''We're going to go out there and play like it's the last game of the season.''


Because, well, it is the last game of the season - with the first CFP playoff title riding on the outcome.


Bell said being pegged as an underdog often motivates elite teams and gives them a psychological edge.


''Bowl games in particular, underdogs have an advantage because they have a significant leadup time to the bowl game in which they're told they're not supposed to win,'' Bell said.


Since 2000, Ohio State has been an underdog 31 times. It beat the spread 20 times and won 16 of those games outright, Bell said.


Coach Urban Meyer said he may conjure up the underdog label to fire up his team, if need be.


''I don't, like, pull out my `underdog script' that we have in my file,'' he said, tongue in cheek. ''It's what kind of team you've got and who you're playing. Since I've been a head coach, we've gone berserk with it a few times and there's other times - this last one (against Alabama) - we didn't really play it up much.''


Several of the Buckeyes said they welcomed being an underdog. After all, it's easier to surprise your opponent (and the experts) that way.


''It's kind of an unsaid feeling, a vibe that we all get. It kind of goes to the hunger we have as a team,'' wide receiver Evan Spencer said. ''Them putting us as underdogs? Let `em, I don't care. We play so well as underdogs, I don't really care what they predict the score to be because I know what we're going to go out there and do. Let's go play ball.''

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF Opening Line Report: Ohio State 7-point dogs in title game after shocking 'Bama

A big favorite and a big underdog won and covered in the first FBS college football playoff, setting up what amounts to a traditional Rose Bowl – except that it will take place at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys.

The Pac-12’s Oregon Ducks will take on the Big 10’s Ohio State Buckeyes on Jan. 12, after those two teams posted impressive semifinal victories Thursday night.

Oregon boatraced defending national champion Florida State 59-20 in the Rose Bowl, cashing many times over as a 7.5-point favorite. And Ohio State, which trailed 21-6 in the second quarter and appeared on the verge of suffering its own blowout, outscored Alabama 36-14 the rest of the way to claim a shocking 42-35 Sugar Bowl victory as a 7.5-point underdog.

John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, said he’s opening the game at Oregon -7.

“The Ohio State name brings a lot of supporters, certainly more than Oregon, but all the gamblers that lost with Alabama will probably come right back and take the Ducks here,” Lester said late Thursday night. “Our numbers suggest that Oregon is between 8 and 9 points better than Ohio State on a neutral field. But given the fact that the Buckeyes have more backers in their camp, we opened Oregon as touchdown chalk to be safe.”

An oddsmaker from topbet.eu followed Lester's logic.

"Before the Rose Bowl started, we were planning on using Oregon -7 vs Ohio State," he said. "Based on both teams' impressive victories, we didn't think it was necessary to stray off the important number of 7."

With scoring aplenty in the semifinal games – both of which easily went over the total – Lester set the total for the title game at 73.5 points.




NCAA practice rule gives Buckeyes huge edge in National Championship

College football bettors looking for a deciding edge in the National Championship Game between Ohio State and Oregon may have found their in. And they can thank the NCAA for that advantage.

According to ESPN’s Brett McMurphy, Ohio State can run unlimited practice hours leading up the title game due to the fact that the school’s spring semester doesn’t start until Monday. Unfortunately, for Oregon, which started its spring session this week, the Ducks are limited to 20 hours of practice time due to NCAA regulations.

Oddsmakers opened with Oregon as a 7-point favorite over the Buckeyes, following their domination of defending national champion Florida State in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day. However, sharp action took Ohio State plus the touchdown and has trimmed the spread to six points as of Thursday afternoon.

According to Peter Childs of Sportsbook.ag, many football bettors are skipping the points and going right to Ohio State’s moneyline, grabbing the Buckeyes as big as +190 to win outright inside AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas Monday.

“That game has seen tons and tons of Ohio State moneyline action,” Childs tells Covers. “To the point that we’re at -200 on Oregon when they’re a 6.5-point favorite. Usually a 6.5-point favorite would be in the -250 range, but our liability on the moneyline as well as Ohio State’s future action has taken this moneyline down to -200, giving only +170 on Ohio State. But our customers are even taking that number.”

That 20-hour cap includes on-field work, weight room sessions, meetings and film study, as well as a three-hour count for the game itself. A Pac-12 official informed ESPN that Oregon is adhering to the NCAA’s strict limitations. The Buckeyes, on the other hand, can do as much preparation as they want simply because school hasn’t started for Ohio State students.

Earlier this week, Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer told reporters that he and his staff are being careful not to overwork their players leading up to Monday's title game, but that doesn't mean they can't spend as much time as they want in the classroom or film study, getting familiar with Oregon's unorthodox play sets.

“You do have to treat it a little bit differently about how you practice, the amount of pad contact you have, the amount -- how many times you’re going to hit the tailback and your offensive line,” Meyer told the media. “Those are all things that I think our staff and I’ve watched so close, and the same with our strength coach - not about just wearing them out, because it’s a much different season.”

The Buckeyes upset No. 1 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, winning 42-35 as 7.5-point underdogs. Ohio State is led by third-string sophomore QB Cardale Jones, who has played well beyond his experience since taking over for injured J.T. Barrett before the Big Ten Championship. The Buckeyes have been underdogs three times this season and have won outright in all three games.

Monday’s total is set at 75 points.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Ohio State vs. Oregon
The Buckeyes face the Ducks in the national championship game and come into the contest with a 9-2-1 ATS record in their last 12 games versus Pac-12 opponents. Ohio State is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has Oregon favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (+7). Here are all of this week's NCAA Football picks.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 10

Game 151-152: Illinois State vs. North Dakota State (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 88.305; North Dakota State 91.186
Dunkel Line: North Dakota State by 3; 58
Vegas Line: North Dakota State by 6 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Illinois State (+6 1/2); Over


MONDAY, JANUARY 12

Game 277-278: Ohio State vs. Oregon (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 121.119; Oregon 123.758
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 2 1/2; 79
Vegas Line: Oregon by 7; 75
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (+7); Over




NCAAF
Long Sheet

Monday, January 12

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OHIO ST (13 - 1) vs. OREGON (13 - 1) - 1/12/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OHIO ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
OHIO ST is 164-119 ATS (+33.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 164-119 ATS (+33.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 82-56 ATS (+20.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAF
Short Sheet

Monday, January 12

Ohio State Buckeyes vs Oregon Ducks - 9:00 PM EST

Ohio State Buckeyes
12-1 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins
10-1 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game
8-1 ATS off 4 or more consecutive overs

Oregon Ducks
6-5 ATS after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins
11-8 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread
42-23 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread




NCAAF

Monday, January 12

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:30 PM
OHIO STATE vs. OREGON
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Ohio State's last 13 games
Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

 

[CNOTES]

2014-15 Bowl Season Recap


January 9, 2015


As we wait for the big Monday night matchup between Ohio State and Oregon to close out the first ever college football season with a national playoff, here is a look back at an eventful and exciting bowl season.

Underdogs Deliver: With one game to play, closing line underdogs went 23-14 ATS (one game closing as a ‘pick’) including going 20-17 S/U. While underdogs were just 5-4 ATS in the first nine bowl games from December 26 to December 29 they went 10-2 ATS including the notable 5-0 ATS sweep on December 27. With that said, the big underdogs did poorly, with underdogs priced at +7 or higher going just 4-7 ATS. Underdogs priced at +10 or higher went 0-2 ATS and 0-3 ATS if you count Northern Illinois who was +10 or +10.5 until the number dropped before kickoff. A couple of very popular heavy underdogs also failed miserably with Louisville and Florida State crashing in lopsided losses late in the bowl season.

Late Lines Moves Fail: Analyzing and grading line moves is certainly an inexact science as there are so many different outlets offering different prices at different times but by and large in the bowl season the line moves did not offer much indication of success. From the opening number to the closing number the line move sides went 18-16 with four games featuring the same opening and closing line. Those that followed the late movement in the roughly 48 hours before kickoff likely saw a record closer to about 8-23 with a handful of games inconclusive. That record means that many of the initial line moves were correct but those that were late to the party or that followed late buy-back paid dearly.


Closing in on the SEC: While the SEC has been the king in college football for the last decade it was a 7-5 (7-5 ATS) campaign for the conference in the bowl season, a record that sounds a lot worse when you consider that nine of the 12 teams were favorites including seven teams as favorites of at least five points. Ranked teams from the SEC went just 2-5 (2-5 ATS) in bowl games. The Pac-12 wound up 6-2 (4-4 ATS) for an impressive showing with Conference USA quietly raking in a 4-1 (3-2 ATS) record despite most considering the league much weaker this season with many of the recently departed teams. The Big Ten went 5-5 (6-4 ATS) but picked up wins in several high profile games while the Big XII certainly justified the playoff selection committee leaving the conference out with a 2-5 (2-5 ATS) record though TCU can’t be blamed as they had arguably the most impressive win of the bowl season.

No Defense: The ‘over’ on the closing numbers went 23-14-1 heading into a championship game with a total priced in the mid-70s. 22 of the 76 teams playing in bowl games scored at least 40 points and 47 of the 76 teams scored at least 30 points. Five games featured both teams topping 40 points, meaning five teams that scored at least 40 points still lost in bowl action. Only three games featured fewer than 35 points and two of those games were the first two bowl games to be played. The average score in bowl games was 62.3 points with a median of 61. The average total was priced at 57.4 so the oddsmakers certainly expected higher numbers, with the median total being 57.

Wild Fourth Quarters: Ten games featured both teams covering the spread at some point in the fourth quarter and that does not even count two games that had S/U result changing scores in the final two minutes by teams that were already in position to cover as an underdog (Bowling Green & Navy). With apologies to those that backed teams that lost despite big statistical edges (Illinois, Cincinnati, Mississippi State, East Carolina…). Or those that backed teams that had 4th quarter collapses of significant, but of lesser magnitude (BYU, Boston College, USC…). Three bowl games this season truly stand out as three of the most improbable comebacks of all time that will live on in gambling lore for years to come:

Western Kentucky (-3½) 49, Central Michigan 48: In the inaugural Bahamas Bowl Western Kentucky took a 49-14 lead into the fourth quarter and that was after failing to add points from 1st and goal late in the third quarter. At the time it didn’t seem to matter with the Hilltoppers more than 30 points past the spread but Central Michigan scored a touchdown with just under 12 minutes to go and then forced a rare Western Kentucky punt. The Chippewas had a little momentum with another scoring drive to climb within 21 points with about eight minutes to go and then as the Hilltoppers were on the verge of a big play, a fumble gave Central Michigan the ball back. With just over three minutes to go Central Michigan was within 14 but the comeback still seemed quite implausible. Using one timeout and aided by a Hilltoppers penalty Central Michigan was able to get the ball back with two minutes to go. Four plays later the Chippewas were within seven points but the on-side kick failed. With two timeouts left Central Michigan was able to guarantee getting a final chance and they wound up with one second left from their own 25-yard line. A play for the ages ensued with a multi-lateral touchdown that has to be seen to be believed. Central Michigan went for two to guarantee the underdog cover, oddly tossing a fade that wasn’t that close as Western Kentucky avoided being the victim of one of the worst blown leads in college football history though they still handed many perhaps the worst gambling defeat of all time.

Michigan State (+3) 42, Baylor 41: The Cotton Bowl was one of the more highly anticipated bowl games with two top 10 teams but after Michigan State built an early 14-7 lead in the first quarter Baylor dominated as it looked like another high profile loss for the Big Ten was underway. Baylor famously rallied from 21 points down in the final 11 minutes to beat TCU in one of the most important games of the regular season but few would have believed that the Bears would receive a taste of their own medicine in the fourth quarter of this game. After Michigan State scored to get within 13 late in the third quarter Baylor quickly answered to take a 41-21 lead into the fourth quarter. Baylor had a chance to extend that lead but a 46-yard field goal was missed on the second play of the quarter. Michigan State would score in five plays to climb back within 13 with just over 12 minutes to go and the Spartans then recovered an onside kick. They could not take advantage of the extra opportunity with an interception seemingly ending the comeback threat. Baylor was able to burn a few minutes off the clock but they opted to go for it on 4th and six just outside of field goal range rather than trying to pin the Spartans deep. It took the Spartans over four minutes but they punched in a touchdown to get within six with less than five minutes to go. Baylor did its best to run out the rest of the clock but Michigan State used all three timeouts on a 10-play Baylor drive that led to a 43-yard field goal try to put the game away with just over a minute on the clock. Incredibly the kick was blocked and returned to just past mid-field. Michigan State needed a big 4th down conversion on the way but Connor Cook connected for a touchdown with less than 20 seconds to go in the game and the extra-point was nailed to complete the comeback.

Houston (+5½) 35, Pittsburgh 34: The early start Armed Forces Bowl did not get a lot of national attention and with Pittsburgh taking a 31-6 lead early in the fourth quarter one could hardly be blamed for changing the channel. Houston put together an 86-yard scoring drive to climb within 18 points with under 11 minutes to go in the game but Pittsburgh answered with a field goal to make it a three-touchdown game and leaving the Cougars only about six minutes to work with. Houston eventually scored a touchdown to get within 14 but they had less than four minutes of clock left and they had to go for the onside kick. Incredibly the Cougars got the bounce they needed and six plays later it was a one-score game. With less than two minutes left Houston kicker Ty Cummings was asked to do it again and with an incredible gift for creating spin he foiled the Pittsburgh hands team (and the same player) again as Houston recovered at their own 43-yard line with less than two minutes to go. On first down the Cougars incredibly hit a wide open 38-yard pass play and it took just four plays for the Cougars to score. They went for two and the win to ruin any chances Pitt backers had for an overtime cover. Unlike Central Michigan, Houston delivered the winning score on the conversion. Pittsburgh still had almost a minute left and the Panthers made a reasonable threat after getting a pass interference penalty but a key dropped pass burned the Panthers as Houston completed an epic comeback win.

 

[CNOTES]

Buckeyes, Ducks meet up


January 11, 2015




OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (13-1) vs. OREGON DUCKS (13-1)


College Football Playoff Championship Game
AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX
Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Oregon -6.5, Total: 75.5


No. 4 Ohio State looks to pull off another upset when it faces No. 2 Oregon for the national championship on Monday night in Arlington, TX.


The Buckeyes were not supposed to beat No. 1 Alabama with third-string quarterback Cardale Jones, especially after trailing 21-6 in the second quarter in the Jan. 1 national semifinal game, but they scored 28 straight points and held on for the 42-35 victory. Ohio State has now won 12 straight contests (8-4 ATS) since its lone loss of the season on Sept. 6 versus Virginia Tech. The Ducks also finished their national semifinal game on a high note, blowing out what was a narrow 25-20 lead in the third quarter by scoring the final 35 points of the game in a 59-20 rout. Since its lone defeat of the year versus Arizona on Oct. 2, Oregon has won nine straight contests (SU and ATS) with the average score being 49 to 22. The school has tallied at least 42 points in all nine wins, while carrying a robust +13 turnover margin during the win streak.


The Buckeyes, who are looking for their first title since 2002, are 8-0 all-time versus the Ducks, who have never won a national championship. These two schools last played in the 2010 Rose Bowl with Ohio State prevailing 26-17 thanks to a gaudy time of possession advantage of 41:37 to 18:23. But Oregon is the clear favorite on Monday with Heisman winning QB Marcus Mariota, who has thrown for 71 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions over the past two seasons. Both schools have positive coaching trends, as Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer is 12-1 ATS off an upset win as a college head coach, while the Ducks are 10-0 ATS under second-year head coach Mark Helfrich after scoring 50+ points in their previous game. While OSU has no injury concerns other than top two QBs J.T. Barrett (ankle) and Braxton Miller (shoulder) both out, Oregon will be without WR Darren Carrington after he failed a drug test, and WR Devon Allen is doubtful after hurting his knee versus Florida State. OL Andre Yruretagoyena (ankle) is questionable for the Ducks.


Ohio State is an excellent rushing team with 262.2 YPG (10th in nation), but it has great balance with the ability to also throw the football with 247.5 YPG (52nd in FBS). This balance has led to a lofty 45.0 PPG this season, good for fifth-best in the nation. Sophomore QB Cardale Jones (618 pass yards, 9.0 YPA, 6 TD, 1 INT) hasn't looked like a third-stringer in his past two games. After completing 12-of-17 passes for 257 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT to beat Wisconsin for the Big Ten title, he totaled 286 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT versus Alabama on New Year's Day. He'll continue to rely on his top two pass catchers when dropping back, senior WR Devin Smith (886 rec yards, 12 TD) and sophomore WR Michael Thomas (746 rec yards, 9 TD). The speedster Smith averages a whopping 27.7 yards per catch this season, including 224 yards on six receptions (37.3 average) with 4 TD in the past two games. Thomas also has big-play ability, as evidenced by a 79-yard TD reception this year, and also performed well against the Crimson Tide with seven catches for 66 yards.


But the real star of the semifinal win was RB Ezekiel Elliott (1,632 rush yards, 6.9 YPC, 14 TD) who rushed for 230 yards on 20 carries (11.5 YPC) with two touchdowns. This was even better than his monster game in the Big Ten Championship when he ran for 220 yards on 20 carries with 2 TD. He now has eight 100-yard rushing games, including four in a row, and Elliott's legs will be a key to sustaining drives and keeping Oregon's high-powered offense on the sidelines. Defensively, the Buckeyes allow only 22.1 PPG (26th in nation), as they are strong both versus the run (142 rushing YPG on 3.9 YPC) and through the air (192 passing YPG, 5.9 YPA). The unit has forced at least two turnovers on 10 different occasions this year, racking up seven giveaways in the two postseason contests.


Oregon ranks 11th in the nation in passing (311.0 YPG), but it also rushes for 241.9 YPG (18th in FBS), leading to the second-most points in the country (47.2 PPG). Junior QB Marcus Mariota (4,121 pass yards, 10.1 YPA, 40 TD, 3 INT) was a runaway Heisman winner who has completed 68.6% of his passes with only three picks on 408 throws. He has tossed at least two TD passes in every game this season, and has scored at least one touchdown on the ground in six straight contests. For the season, Mariota has run for 731 yards (5.8 YPC) and 15 touchdowns, but that wasn't even tops on his own team. Freshman RB Royce Freeman (1,343 rush yards, 5.6 YPC, 18 TD) was consistently excellent all season, ending the 2014 calendar year with eight straight games of at least 98 rushing yards where he tallied 12 total touchdowns. Although he struggled a bit on Jan. 1 versus the Seminoles with only 44 yards on 12 carries (3.7 YPC), Freeman did score two times.


The star rusher of that win was sophomore RB Thomas Tyner (511 rush yards, 5.1 YPC, 5 TD) who returned after a three-game absence (shoulder injury) and rushed for 124 yards on 13 carries (9.5 YPC) with two touchdowns. While this ball-carrying depth is superb, the Ducks have another great rusher and receiver in junior WR Byron Marshall (834 rec yards, 5 TD; 383 rush yards, 1 TD) who averages 7.5 yards per carry and leads his team with 66 receptions. Marshall was pretty quiet versus FSU with only 20 receiving yards on five catches and one carry for zero yards, but he has eclipsed 130 receiving yards on three different occasions this year, while catching at least four passes in 10 of his past 11 contests.


With the team's top two WRs, Darren Carrington (704 rec yards, 4 TD) and WR Devon Allen (684 rec yards, 7 TD) unlikely to play on Monday, Mariota still has plenty of strong receivers with Marshall, WR Dwayne Stanford (578 rec yards, 6 TD), and TE Pharaoh Brown (420 rec yards, 6 TD), who were all valuable members of this potent offense. The 6-foot-2 freshman Carrington has been unbelievable in the two-game postseason with 14 catches for 291 yards and three touchdowns, so his absence will certainly be felt. Defensively, the Ducks give up only 22.3 PPG (27th in nation), but they do allow 422 total YPG (5.4 yards per play), broken down between a hefty 266 passing YPG (6.7 YPA) and 156 rushing YPG (4.2 YPC). Just like OSU, Oregon also has a very opportunistic unit with at least two takeaways in 11-of-14 games this season, including seven forced turnovers in the past two contests.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Notes - Oregon vs. Ohio State


January 11, 2015




Oregon and Ohio State will meet on Monday at AT&T Stadium from Arlington, Texas for the inaugural College Football Playoff championship game.


Oddsmakers at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas are expecting a shootout in the finale as they opened the total at 70 ½ points after the matchup was set last Thursday.


The early money jumped all over the initial offering and pushed the total up to 75 ½ points. This past Friday, the number dropped back down to 74 ½ and that’s where it sits across the board as of Sunday.


The move came after Oregon announced that wide receiver Darren Carrington was suspended for the game due to failed drug test. The redshirt freshman had his best game of the season in the Ducks’ 59-20 win against Florida State in the Rose Bowl, catching seven passes for 165 yards and two scores. Many believe filling his shoes won’t be easy, especially bettors. Oregon opened as a seven-point favorite and that number has dropped to five at most shops.


From a total perspective, it’s safe to say that Oregon’s fast-paced attack is a system and as long as you have a quarterback, wide receivers are a dime a dozen there. Seriously, can anybody name an All-Pro wide receiver in the NFL from Oregon?


All season long, I leaned on VegasInsider.com handicapper James Manos for his total thoughts and he returns for championship.


“I'm a little surprised at the significant movement upward in this game but I think it's easy to see where some of this is coming from,” said Manos.


“This year's bowl campaign has seen a multitude of higher scoring affairs and not just in the bowl games that featured offensive minded teams in insignificant bowls. The January 1st bowls saw all five major bowls exceed their opening totals, with four of five exceeding their closing totals as well. The two semi-final matchups saw combined totals of 79 and 77 points.”


“Combine that with the fact that Oregon's scored 51 in the Pac-12 Championship game and Ohio State scored 59 in the Big 10 Championship game and the public's perception that ALL Oregon totals go OVER and you have a recipe for the public backing the OVER in this game.”


Manos is correct that people assume Oregon with the ‘over’ but the results weren’t there this season at the betting counter. The Ducks saw the ‘under’ go 7-5-1 even though the offense averaged 46.1 points per game, which was ranked third nationally.


In its 13 games, Oregon has had seven totals listed at 70 points or more. The ‘under’ went 5-2 in those games.


While the Ducks leaned to the ‘under’ this season, Ohio State was the best ‘over’ (12-2) producing team in the nation. The numbers are directly attributed to the offensive style that head coach Urban Meyer has brought to the program. Including this season, the Buckeyes have seen the ‘over’ go 28-12 (70%) since he arrived in Columbus.


As Manos mentioned, he’s note surprised by the move but was taken back a little bit that the initial shift came from the professional bettors or what many refer to as sharps.


He explained, “I think the sharps have a different reason for pushing this total upward though. My belief is that someone really wants to play UNDER 77 in this contest and you'll see an immediate and large buyback if this total reaches that number, which is now likely doubtful due to the announced suspension. Despite all the scoring, Ohio State exceeded 77 combined points just twice this season and Oregon just three times. There are fundamental reasons to prefer the UNDER, extra time for defenses to game plan, Ohio State's preference to run the football, nerves of the first ever Playoff Championship game, etc. and I think we'll see this number come down prior to game time. I prefer the UNDER at any number 76 or above and feel this game falls into this category.”


It will probably take a lot of public money to see this total reach 76 or 77 but this game is garnering attention according to Jay Kornegay, Vice President of the Westgate SuperBook.


Kornegay said, “The handle is pretty solid, similar numbers to a good NFL playoff game. We’ve received steady two-way action as of Sunday but the bigger tickets are on Ohio State while Oregon is ruling the ticket count. I think the public will play the total up by Monday but the sharps won’t let it go too far.”


We asked Manos for his opinion on the game and how it will play out. He said, “It should be an entertaining game either way. My projections have this game 37-32 with Oregon taking the title but I disagree a bit. I think that the Buckeyes can win the line of scrimmage and Urban Meyer has a HUGE coaching advantage.”


Bowl Total Notes


-- The ‘over’ went 23-14-1 (62%) in the first 38 bowl games.


-- The Big Ten played in 10 bowls this postseason and the ‘over’ went 7-2-1 (77%).


-- The Pac-12 played in eight bowls this postseason and the ‘over’ went 6-2 (75%).


-- The two conferences have collided twice this postseason:
USC 45 Nebraska 42 OVER 63
Stanford 45 Maryland 21 OVER 44 ½


Head-to-Head Total Notes


-- Ohio State defeated Oregon 26-17 in the 2010 Rose Bowl. The combined 43 points fell ‘under’ the closing total of 53.


-- Since 2008, Oregon has faced six Big Ten opponents. The ‘over/under’ has gone 3-3 in these games.


-- During the same span, Ohio State has faced six Pac-12 schools and the total has produced a middling 3-3 mark.


Postseason Notes


-- Ohio State has watched the ‘over’ go 4-0 in four postseason games under Meyer, which includes a pair of bowls and Big Ten title games.


-- Since 2010 when Oregon begin to make a name for itself, the Ducks have seen the ‘under’ go 4-2 in bowl games, which includes their recent victory over the Seminoles in the Rose Bowl. The Ducks have played in two Pac-12 title games and despite scoring 49 and 51, the total went 1-1.


Championship Trends


History


-- The BCS Championship Era had 16 matchups and the total has been a wash (8-8).


-- Oregon lost in the 2011 title to Auburn 22-19 and the closing total of 73, which was the highest-ever for a championship, was never threatened.


-- Ohio State has played in three title games and all three went ‘over’ the number. The Buckeyes have one championship to their credit but most Miami Hurricanes fans will still tell you otherwise.

 

[CNOTES]

Ohio State vs. Oregon


January 11, 2015




The first College Football Playoff National Championship is -- at long last -- upon us. Ohio State and Oregon are set to square off Monday night at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.


On Saturday morning, Oregon received terrible news when wide receiver Darren Carrington was suspended for testing positive for marijuana. Carrington had seven receptions for 165 yards in last week's win over Florida State For the season, he had made 37 catches for 704 yards and four touchdowns.


This takes another weapon away from Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota, who was already without starting TE Pharaoh Brown, who had 25 receptions for 420 yards and six TDs before sustaining a serious knee injury in the Ducks' ninth game at Utah. Also, Oregon redshirt freshman WR Devon Allen is 'out' after getting injured on the opening kickoff vs. FSU. Allen has 41 catches for 674 yards and seven TDs.


The Westgate SuperBook opened Oregon as a seven-point favorite with a total of 73.5.


As of Thursday night, most betting shops had Oregon (13-1 straight up, 10-4 against the spread) listed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 75.5 points for 'over/under' wagers. At that time, gamblers were able to take the Buckeyes on the money line for a +185 payout (risk $100 to win $185).


Once the word of Carrington's suspension leaked out early Saturday, most books moved the number down to five. However, as of Sunday afternoon, the line was back up to six. The total was at 74.5 or 75 and the Buckeyes were +170 on the money line.


For first-half wagers, the Ducks are favored by 3.5 with a total of 37.5.


Since suffering its lone loss at home to Arizona, Oregon has won eight in a row both SU and ATS, including six wins over bowl-bound opponents. All eight of those wins came by margins of 12 points or more. The Ducks beat UCLA by 12, Stanford by 29, Washington by 25, Utah by 24, FSU by 39 and Arizona by 38.


Ohio State (13-1 SU, 9-5 ATS) has won 12 consecutive games and will play for the national title despite relying on a third-string QB in its last two games. Braxton Miller, the two-time Big Ten Player of the Year, was lost to a season-ending shoulder injury in late August. Therefore, redshirt freshman J.T. Barrett became the starter.


Barrett responded with a spectacular season, posting a 34/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also rushed for 938 yards and 11 TDs. In the regular-season finale, however, Barrett sustained a season-ending injury.


With Barrett out, Cardale Jones made his first career start at the Big Ten Championship Game. As a four-point underdog, Ohio State improbably blasted Wisconsin 59-0 to take the conference crown. Then last week at the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, the Buckeyes won a 42-35 decision over Alabama as 7.5-point underdogs.


Ezekiel Elliott was the catalyst against the Crimson Tide, rushing 20 times for 230 yards and a pair of TDs, including an 85-yard scamper to daydirt with 3:24 remaining to put his team in front by 14 points. Jones completed 18-of-35 throws for 243 yards and one TD. He rushed for 43 yards on 17 totes.


For the season, Jones has connected on 40-of-69 passes (58%) for 618 yards with a 6/1 TD-INT ratio. In the win over Wisconsin, Jones completed 12-of-17 passes for 257 yards and three TDs without an interception. Devin Smith had all three of those TD receptions and had one against Alabama. Smith is one of the nation's best deep threats, averaging 27.7 yards per catch. He has 32 receptions for 886 yards and 12 TDs.


Elliott rushed for 220 yards against the Badgers. For the year, he has 1,632 rushing yards and 14 TDs, averaging 6.9 yards per carry.


Mariota's numbers this season have been insane. He has 40 TD passes compared to merely three interceptions. Mariota has run for 731 yards and 15 TDs. His favorite target is Byron Marshall, who has 66 receptions for 834 yards and five TDs. Royce Freeman has rushed for a team-best 1,343 yards and 18 TDs while averaging 5.5 YPC.


Oregon smashed FSU by a 59-20 count as a 7.5-point favorite at last week's Rose Bowl. Mariota threw for 338 yards and a pair of TDs. He also rushed for 62 yards and one TD on eight carries. Thomas Tyner and Freeman both had a pair of rushing scores, with Tyner rushing for a team-high 124 yards.


Oregon is a perfect 4-0 ATS as a single-digit favorite. Meanwhile, Ohio State has won outright in a pair of games as an underdog this year.


The 'over' is on a 12-1 run for Ohio State and has gone 12-2 overall. This is the highest total the Buckeyes have seen this year. The previous high was 66.5 in a 42-27 win over Indiana that saw the 69 combined points slip 'over' the tally. Only four of Ohio State's 14 games have had 76 combined points or more. The average combined score in Buckeye games is 67.1 points per game.


Oregon has seen seven totals in the 70s and they've been a wash (3-3-1). The 'over' is 7-6-1 overall for the Ducks, whose games have averaged a combined score of 69.5 PPG. We should note, however, that they had seen three straight 'under' appearances until the 'over' cashed in the blowout win over the 'Noles. Also, only four of Oregon's 14 games have had 75 combined points or more.


Sportsbook.ag has a slew of proposition bets posted. For instance, there are adjusted numbers with odds for the side.


For bettors that are extremely bullish on the Buckeyes, you can take them -3.5 points for a +225 return (risk $100 to win $225). One can also back Ohio State -7.5 points to earn a +350 payout.


On the flip side, gamblers can back Oregon to win by 22 points or more for a +225 return. The offshore website will have adjusted numbers for the total also, but they weren't up yet as of Sunday afternoon.

 

[CNOTES]

Title game will crown a 'true champion'


January 11, 2015


DALLAS (AP) - Ohio State and Oregon will meet in a game that has never been played for a trophy that has never been raised.


The winner Monday night in North Texas can be called the truest champion in the history of major college football.


The first College Football Playoff national championship game matches the second-seeded Ducks and fourth-seeded Buckeyes at AT&T Stadium.


''It's college football history,'' Ohio State coach Urban Meyer said Sunday during a news conference with Oregon coach Mark Helfrich, with that new championship trophy sitting in between them.


The days of bowls, polls and the BCS having the final say about who is No. 1 are over. The playoff that fans wanted for so long - and finally got - will determine a single champion.


Oregon (13-1) and its Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Marcus Mariota are in search of the program's first national title, the last remaining goal for a school that has barged onto the national stage over the last two decades with ostentatious flare and flashy uniforms.


Ohio State (13-1) is shooting for national championship No. 5, but the first under coach Urban Meyer, who returned to his home state three years ago to take over a college football goliath that was looking to start its next golden age.


Tradition rich vs. cutting edge.


The Ducks from the Pac-12 raced into the championship game with an emphatic 59-20 victory against Florida State last week at the Rose Bowl.


The Buckeyes from the Big Ten upset Alabama 42-35 at the Sugar Bowl to cap an improbable rebound from an early season loss and injuries to two star quarterbacks.


''This is much more of a business trip, this time around,'' Ohio State All-America defensive end Joey Bosa said. ''Last week we went, we hung out and had some fun. This week it's all about business; no going out, no messing around. We're just preparing.''


Ohio State has won 12 straight since stumbling at home to Virginia Tech in September.


The Ducks have won nine in a row since, all by double-digit margins, since losing to Arizona in October.


''We've been playing, both our program and Ohio State have played with that kind of early loss, and your back was against the wall to get to this point every play of every game, the entire rest of the season, it was to the those words: do or die,'' Helfrich said.


Here are some things to know about the ultimate winner-take-all-game:


SUPER MARIOTA


Mariota can become the seventh Heisman Trophy winner since 1996 to win the national championship in the same season he won the Heisman. Florida State's Jameis Winston did it last season.


Another victory in what is very likely his last college game would top off a career that can go down as one of the best in college football history.


Mariota has thrown for 10,463 yards, 103 touchdowns passes and just 13 interceptions while winning 35 games in three seasons as Oregon's starter.


''Our No. 1 concern is their quarterback,'' Meyer said.


The Buckeyes hope to contain the fast-moving Mariota with a defensive line, led by Bosa, that is among the best in the nation.


''They've got an awesome front seven,'' Mariota said. ''Big, physical guys that really control the line of scrimmage.''


MEYER'S MILESTONE


Meyer can become the second coach in college football history to win national championships with two schools, joining Nick Saban, who won the BCS title in 2003 with LSU and then three more titles with Alabama.


Meyer won national titles with Florida in 2006 and 2008. A third championship would make Meyer the ninth coach in college football's poll era (dating to 1936) to win at least three championships. Bear Bryant leads with the six he won at Alabama.


MISSING


The Ducks will be down their most productive receiver over the last two games.


Darren Carrington is ineligible after failing an NCAA administered drug test. He is second on the team in yards receiving with 704 and averages 19 yards per catch. He's been especially good lately.


In the Pac-12 championship game against Arizona and the Rose Bowl against Florida State, Carrington had 14 catches for 292 yards and three touchdowns.


Oregon also lost Devon Allen, second on the team in catches (41) and touchdown receptions (seven), at the Rose Bowl to a knee injury.


''We don't have things in our system that it's, hey, we need to throw this guy the ball in this play period,'' Helfrich said. ''That doesn't exist.''


OH-FER OHIO STATE


This will be the ninth meeting between Oregon and Ohio State. The Buckeyes have won the previous eight.

 

[CNOTES]

OSU's "D" no longer team's weakest link


January 11, 2015


DALLAS (AP) - A year ago, Urban Meyer had no faith whatsoever in his own defense.


A lot has changed heading into Monday night's national championship game against Oregon, including the Ohio State coach's confidence in his ball stoppers.


''We played good defense throughout the year, sometimes great defense and other times not as good,'' Meyer said Sunday. ''We gave up some big hits. (But) I obviously think it's the players. The approach and practice has also been extraordinary.''


Meyer sees the rebuilt unit as one of the keys for the Buckeyes as they try to put the clamps on Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Marcus Mariota and Co.


A year ago, that certainly wasn't the case. Meyer was so upset by his defense's play after back-to-back losses to close the season that he chose to destroy the underpinnings of a unit that surrendered lots of big plays but still helped Ohio State to 24 consecutive wins.


At times, it was a porous, dysfunctional group. There were schisms between the linemen, linebackers and secondary, mistakes and missed tackles were common, players blamed their teammates and no one took responsibility for anything that went wrong.


''It starts becoming a blame game,'' tackle Michael Bennett recalled of what was taking place with the Buckeyes. ''If you're selfish, then instead of taking it upon yourself and saying, `Well, I need to change something' or looking at your teammate and going, `Hey, we've got to do better,' you're looking at them and you're saying, `This is your fault. I'm doing my job, do your job because you're screwing it over, boys.'''


Now, in what seems like much longer than 12 months later, the Buckeyes are in the ultimate college game with a defense that has done pretty much everything it has needed when games were teetering on the brink.


Most people thought the problem was the secondary a year ago. In the final three games - a 42-41 victory at rival Michigan, a 34-24 loss to Michigan State in the Big Ten title game and a 40-35 defeat to Clemson in the Orange Bowl - the defense surrendered an average of 38.3 points and 539 yards.


Meyer hired Chris Ash away from Arkansas to come in and tear down the defense and start fresh. He designed a unit that isolated the cornerbacks one-on-one in press coverage and then unleashed a talented, veteran line to exert more pressure on quarterbacks. The players loved it because it downplayed reacting and rewarded being more aggressive.


Now the defense is coming off two of its best games of the season - a 59-0 shellacking of Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship and a 42-35 victory over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.


The shutout speaks for itself. Against the Crimson Tide, the secondary that was such a question mark not so long ago intercepted three passes.


''The big thing is, yes, we have changed,'' said co_defensive coordinator Luke Fickell, who should have worn an asbestos suit around Columbus amid all the heat from fans during the offseason. ''When you play your best ball at the end of the year, that means you've shown consistency, you've continued to grow, your team has continued to come together and you believe in what you're doing.''


Meyer marvels at the difference in the total defense, and also the incredible turnaround of several individuals.


Darron Lee was a high school quarterback recruited as a generic ''athlete'' who was switched to linebacker during a redshirt year and showed up this spring as a quick, hard-hitting coverage linebacker in Ash's grand plan. First-year starters Eli Apple and Doran Grant played like shutdown corners all season. Senior Curtis Grant, a top recruit who had never lived up to his high school rep, had his best college season. And linemen Joey Bosa and Bennett led a rejuvenated pass rush.


Still, most of the change came between the ears, not from a playbook or in the weight room.


''We challenged each other. We knew we could be great. We knew it,'' said safety Vonn Bell. ''Coach Ash challenged us when he first got here. We always bought into what he brought, we bought into the culture. Now we hold each other accountable.''


Of course, Meyer credits Fickell, Ash, new hire but old hand Larry Johnson (coming off 18 years as Penn State's line coach) and cornerbacks coach Kerry Coombs, who helped make the changes in the secondary in the face of withering criticism from the public.


''That's why I think we're doing so well on defense now: Four good coaches in that room and obviously the players are being developed,'' Meyer said.

 

[CNOTES]

UO's Carrington suspended after drug test


January 9, 2015


DALLAS (AP) - Oregon wide receiver Darren Carrington is suspended for the national championship game after testing positive for marijuana during an NCAA drug test, a person with direct knowledge of test results said Friday.


The person spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because of student privacy rules. Team spokesman Andy McNamara confirmed that Carrington is not with the team but would not indicate why.


Carrington's absence was first reported by CSNNW.com. The Ducks play Ohio State for the national championship on Monday.


The 6-foot-2, 191-pound redshirt freshman made his first career start in the victory over Arizona in the Pac-12 championship game, finishing with seven catches for 126 yards and a touchdown.


He also had seven catches for 166 yards and two touchdowns in Oregon's Rose Bowl victory over Florida State on Jan. 1.


Not having Carrington leaves the Ducks down two key wide receivers against Ohio State.


Last week Oregon lost redshirt freshman Devon Allen on the opening kickoff with a knee injury. Allen had 41 catches for 684 yards and seven touchdowns.


The Ducks have also been playing for the last four games without star tight end Pharoah Brown, who went down with a season-ending leg injury against Utah.


That leaves Oregon, which regularly uses three- and four-receiver formations, with Byron Marshall (66 catches for 834 yards), Dwayne Stafford (39 for 578), Keanon Lowe (25 for 359) and freshman Charles Nelson (11 for 101) to rely on at wideout.


Tight end Evan Baylis had a breakout game last week with six catches.