Thursday's Early Bowl Tips
December 30, 2014
**Auburn vs. Wisconsin**
-- The Southeastern Conference and Big Ten Conference get together at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla. for the latest installment of the Outback Bowl. The Badgers hope this game goes better than their past four appearances in the Outback Bowl, previously known as the Hall of Fame Bowl. They have lost three straight appearances in the game since topping Duke Jan. 2, 1995, in their first appearances in the bowl game. The Tigers won a thrilling 38-35 overtime win July 1, 2010 against Northwestern, and they're 2-1 all-time in the game.
-- Wisconsin (10-3 SU, 5-8 ATS) has to be champing at the bit to get back onto the field after a 59-0 beatdown from Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game. It was the third consecutive game the Badgers failed to cover. To make matters worse, since that game, head coach Gary Andersen has left for the top job at Oregon State. Before the conference title game, the Badgers had won seven straight outings, and even with Andersen gone, they still have Heisman Trophy finalist RB Melvin Gordon in the mix. Athletic director, and former head coach, Barry Alvarez will lead the team on the field.
-- Auburn (8-4 SU, 4-8 ATS) had a difficult time this season, and they lost three of their final four games. Defense was a problem in the three losses, as they allowed 43.3 points per game in the three setbacks from Nov. 8-29. In fact, Auburn allowed 31 or more points in six of their final seven games. While the offense managed 31 or more points in nine of their 12 games this season, the Tigers were hard to figure out down the stretch. After a 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS start, the Tigers were just 3-4 SU/1-6 ATS in the final seven outings.
-- Against bowl teams this season, the Tigers are 6-4 SU and 3-7 ATS. They head into this game as a 6.5-point favorite. They're 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in such situations.
-- For the Badgers, they were 7-2 SU against bowl teams and 4-5 ATS. However, they fell in their only game against an SEC opponent this season, losing 28-24 in the season opener against LSU.
-- Gordon averaged 7.6 yards per game on the ground this season, running for an obscene 2,336 yards and 26 touchdowns. If the Tigers are to win, the top job will obviously be slowing down the electric tailback. Sidekick Corey Clement is no slouch, either, as he ran for 844 yards on 132 carries with nine touchdown runs. Each can be useful with their hands, too, as Godon had 8.9 yards per grab with three touchdown catches, and Clement had 12 grabs for 108 yards and a score. The quarterback play for Wisconsin is so-so, and the Tigers don't have to worry much about downfield play. WR Alex Erickson is the best bet for the Badgers, as he led the team with 51 grabs, 734 yards and 14.4 yards per reception. He had three TD scores, one behind Sam Arneson for the team-best in scoring receptions.
-- The Tigers offense is much more balanced than the Badgers. QB Nick Marshall passed for 2,315 yards, 18 touchdowns and a 148.7 passer rating, while running for 780 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. That total matched RB Cameron Artis-Payne, who also found the end zone 11 times. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry with 1,482 yards.
-- However, remember WR D'haquille 'Duke' Williams is suspended for Thursday's game, and he was a major part of the offense. He led the team with 45 catches, 730 receiving yards and five touchdowns. That will mean WR Sammie Coates will need to step up. He had 30 catches for 717 yards and four grabs. Quan Bray and Ricardo Louis will also need to fill the void.
-- The total sits at 63.5 for the Outback Bowl at most shops. The over is 3-0-1 in the past four games for Wisconsin, and is 5-2-1 in the past eight games. The over is 6-1 in Wisconsin's past seven neutral-site games, and 3-0-1 in their past four against a team with a winning record. The over is 4-2 in the past six games for Auburn, and 12-5 in the past 17 games on grass. However, the under is 7-2 in Auburn's past nine bowl games.
-- These teams last met Jan. 2, 2006 in the Capital One Bowl with the Badgers winning 24-10, covering as a 10-point underdog.
-- Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
**Michigan State vs. Baylor**
-- One of the best non-playoff bowl games will be the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, as the Big Ten and Big 12 get together at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Michigan State and Baylor square off, and they were two teams which entertained playoff helps for most of the season.
-- Michigan State (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) rolls into this game with wins and covers in each of the past three. Their only two losses this season are against two teams in the four-game playoff, Oregon and Ohio State. Against bowl teams this season, Sparty is 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS.
-- Baylor (11-1 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) comes into this game after being squeezed out of said four-team playoff. Head coach Art Briles was particularly outspoken, and was unhappy with his conference commissioner. The Bears can come into this game one of two ways. They can come out and get some semblance of revenge against Michigan State, showing the nation the playoff committee was wrong, or they can lay an egg. Against bowl teams this season, the Bears went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. That includes an impressive regular season finale win and cover against Kansas State, 38-27, back on Dec. 6.
-- The Spartans enter the game 5-1 ATS in their past six games overall, 13-4-1 ATS in their past 18 against teams with a winning overall record, and 5-1-1 ATS in their past seven non-conference tilts. In addition, Michigan State is 16-5-1 ATS in the past 22 games on field turf, and 18-8-1 ATS in their past 27 games following a straight-up win. However, they are 2-5 ATS in their past seven against Big 12 Conference opponents.
-- The Bears have gone 22-8-1 ATS in their past 31 games overall, and 12-4 ATS in their past 16 games against teams with a winning record. In addition, they're 7-1 ATS in their past eight non-conference battles, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven games at a neutral site.
-- The total is set at 69. The 'over' is a dominant trend on both sides. The 'over' is 11-3 in the past 14 overall for Michigan State, and 4-1 in their past five bowl games. The over has hit in five of the past six neutral-site games for Sparty, and the over is 4-0 in their past four games on field turf. Plus, the over has cashed in six of the past eight following an ATS cover for Michigan State. For Baylor, the over is a whopping 40-16-2 in the past 58 games, and 6-1 in their past seven non-conference games. The over has also cashed in six of the past seven non-conference games, and is 27-10-2 in their past 39 games on field turf.
-- When the Spartans have the ball, QB Connor Cook is a caretaker who makes very few mistakes. He has completed 58.2 percent of his passes, posting 2,900 passing yards with 22 touchdowns and just six interceptions. WR Tony Lippett is the star with downfield ability, posting 60 receptions for 1,124 yards and 11 scores. RB Jeremy Langford finishes off the 'Big Three' for State, as he rolled up 1,360 rushing yards with 19 rushing touchdowns, and he averaged 5.5 yards per carry this season.
-- Bears QB Bryce Petty completed 62.1 percent of his passes this season, totaling 3,305 passing yards with 26 touchdowns and just six interceptions. He has a cadre of receivers with speed to burn. WR Corey Coleman led the way with 57 grabs for 969 yards and 10 touchdowns, while K.D. Cannon checked in with 50 grabs, 833 yards and six scores. WR Antwan Goodley missed three games this season, but still ended up with 51 catches, 737 yards and six scores, while WR Jay Lee also showed how dangerous he can be with 39 grabs, 596 yards and six scores, averaging 15.3 yards per catch. The Spartans will have to keep tabs on RB Shock Linwood, too, as he ran for 1,226 yards and 16 scores while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Freshman Johnny Jefferson had three touchdowns in the final two games, and six scores all season. Devin Chafin also showed that the cupboard is anything but bare when Linwood leaves, as he had seven rushing touchdowns in a three-game span from Nov. 1-22.
-- Kickoff is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**Missouri vs. Minnesota**
In the second of three New Year's Day SEC vs. Big Ten battles, Missouri and Minnesota do battle in the sunshine of Orlando, Fla. at the Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl.
-- Missouri (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) won their final six games in the regular season, going 5-1 ATS during the span. They were roughed up by Alabama in the SEC Championship Game by a 42-13 score, but they fared well against bowl teams this season for the most part. Mizzou went 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in nine games against postseason qualifiers.
-- Minnesota (8-4 SU/ATS) was one of the bigger surprises in the nation this season, but they sputtered a bit down the stretch to fall out of contention for the Big Ten Championship Game. They still qualified for their first January bowl game in 53 years, and they're looking for their second nine-win season in 109 years. In fact, they have a losing record in five games since Oct. 25, going 2-3 SU. However, the Gophers were 4-1 ATS during the span, including covers in their final four regular season games. Against bowl teams, the Gophers went 2-4 SU and 4-2 ATS in six games.
-- The Tigers dismissed their best receiver before the start of the season, but the offense didn't seem to skip a beat. QB Maty Mauk stepped right in for the departed James Franklin to post 2,551 yards, 23 touchdowns and just 11 interceptions while rolling up 355 rushing yards and a score. He isn't necessarily a dual-threat QB, but he isn't a statue back there either. RB Russell Hansbrough topped the charts for the Tigers with 970 yards, 5.1 yards per carry and nine rushing scores against mostly tough SEC competition. Marcus Murphy was a nice chance-of-pace back posting 767 yards and four touchdowns, including three in the final two regular season games. WR Bud Sasser was best of the lot in the receiving game, going for 70 grabs, a team-best 935 yards and 10 touchdowns. In fact, Sasser was just one of three SEC receivers to go for double-digit touchdown receptions, joining Alabama's Amari Cooper (14) and Texas A&M's Josh Reynolds (13).
-- The Gophers do not pass the ball much, and QB Mitch Leidner completed just 49 percent of his passes while totaling 1,540 yards, 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He is more effective as a runner, posting 462 yards with 10 rushing scores. Only RB David Cobb had more, running for 1,545 yards and 13 touchdowns. TE Maxx Williams is the big-play threat in the passing game, as he was the only played on the roster with more than 15 receptions. He had 29 snares for 471 yards while accounting for seven of Minnesota's 11 receiving touchdowns.
-- Mizzou heads in 4-1 ATS over the past five games against teams with a winning record, 19-7-1 ATS in the past 27 games overall, and 9-3-1 ATS in the past 13 non-conference battles. For Minnesota, the Gophers are 5-0 ATS in the past five against a team with a winning record, 9-4 ATS in the past 13 non-conference tilts and 4-0 in their past four overall.
-- The under is 7-3-1 in the past 11 games overall for Missouri, but the over is 4-0 in the past four neutral-site battles. The over is 6-1-1 in the past eight games for Missouri on a grass surface. The under is 4-1 in Minnesota's past five non-conference games, and 11-5 in their past 16 games overall. The under is also 4-1 in their past five non-conference tilts, and 4-0 in their past four battles on a grass surface.
-- Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC.
December 30, 2014
**Auburn vs. Wisconsin**
-- The Southeastern Conference and Big Ten Conference get together at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla. for the latest installment of the Outback Bowl. The Badgers hope this game goes better than their past four appearances in the Outback Bowl, previously known as the Hall of Fame Bowl. They have lost three straight appearances in the game since topping Duke Jan. 2, 1995, in their first appearances in the bowl game. The Tigers won a thrilling 38-35 overtime win July 1, 2010 against Northwestern, and they're 2-1 all-time in the game.
-- Wisconsin (10-3 SU, 5-8 ATS) has to be champing at the bit to get back onto the field after a 59-0 beatdown from Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game. It was the third consecutive game the Badgers failed to cover. To make matters worse, since that game, head coach Gary Andersen has left for the top job at Oregon State. Before the conference title game, the Badgers had won seven straight outings, and even with Andersen gone, they still have Heisman Trophy finalist RB Melvin Gordon in the mix. Athletic director, and former head coach, Barry Alvarez will lead the team on the field.
-- Auburn (8-4 SU, 4-8 ATS) had a difficult time this season, and they lost three of their final four games. Defense was a problem in the three losses, as they allowed 43.3 points per game in the three setbacks from Nov. 8-29. In fact, Auburn allowed 31 or more points in six of their final seven games. While the offense managed 31 or more points in nine of their 12 games this season, the Tigers were hard to figure out down the stretch. After a 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS start, the Tigers were just 3-4 SU/1-6 ATS in the final seven outings.
-- Against bowl teams this season, the Tigers are 6-4 SU and 3-7 ATS. They head into this game as a 6.5-point favorite. They're 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in such situations.
-- For the Badgers, they were 7-2 SU against bowl teams and 4-5 ATS. However, they fell in their only game against an SEC opponent this season, losing 28-24 in the season opener against LSU.
-- Gordon averaged 7.6 yards per game on the ground this season, running for an obscene 2,336 yards and 26 touchdowns. If the Tigers are to win, the top job will obviously be slowing down the electric tailback. Sidekick Corey Clement is no slouch, either, as he ran for 844 yards on 132 carries with nine touchdown runs. Each can be useful with their hands, too, as Godon had 8.9 yards per grab with three touchdown catches, and Clement had 12 grabs for 108 yards and a score. The quarterback play for Wisconsin is so-so, and the Tigers don't have to worry much about downfield play. WR Alex Erickson is the best bet for the Badgers, as he led the team with 51 grabs, 734 yards and 14.4 yards per reception. He had three TD scores, one behind Sam Arneson for the team-best in scoring receptions.
-- The Tigers offense is much more balanced than the Badgers. QB Nick Marshall passed for 2,315 yards, 18 touchdowns and a 148.7 passer rating, while running for 780 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. That total matched RB Cameron Artis-Payne, who also found the end zone 11 times. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry with 1,482 yards.
-- However, remember WR D'haquille 'Duke' Williams is suspended for Thursday's game, and he was a major part of the offense. He led the team with 45 catches, 730 receiving yards and five touchdowns. That will mean WR Sammie Coates will need to step up. He had 30 catches for 717 yards and four grabs. Quan Bray and Ricardo Louis will also need to fill the void.
-- The total sits at 63.5 for the Outback Bowl at most shops. The over is 3-0-1 in the past four games for Wisconsin, and is 5-2-1 in the past eight games. The over is 6-1 in Wisconsin's past seven neutral-site games, and 3-0-1 in their past four against a team with a winning record. The over is 4-2 in the past six games for Auburn, and 12-5 in the past 17 games on grass. However, the under is 7-2 in Auburn's past nine bowl games.
-- These teams last met Jan. 2, 2006 in the Capital One Bowl with the Badgers winning 24-10, covering as a 10-point underdog.
-- Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
**Michigan State vs. Baylor**
-- One of the best non-playoff bowl games will be the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, as the Big Ten and Big 12 get together at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Michigan State and Baylor square off, and they were two teams which entertained playoff helps for most of the season.
-- Michigan State (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) rolls into this game with wins and covers in each of the past three. Their only two losses this season are against two teams in the four-game playoff, Oregon and Ohio State. Against bowl teams this season, Sparty is 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS.
-- Baylor (11-1 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) comes into this game after being squeezed out of said four-team playoff. Head coach Art Briles was particularly outspoken, and was unhappy with his conference commissioner. The Bears can come into this game one of two ways. They can come out and get some semblance of revenge against Michigan State, showing the nation the playoff committee was wrong, or they can lay an egg. Against bowl teams this season, the Bears went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. That includes an impressive regular season finale win and cover against Kansas State, 38-27, back on Dec. 6.
-- The Spartans enter the game 5-1 ATS in their past six games overall, 13-4-1 ATS in their past 18 against teams with a winning overall record, and 5-1-1 ATS in their past seven non-conference tilts. In addition, Michigan State is 16-5-1 ATS in the past 22 games on field turf, and 18-8-1 ATS in their past 27 games following a straight-up win. However, they are 2-5 ATS in their past seven against Big 12 Conference opponents.
-- The Bears have gone 22-8-1 ATS in their past 31 games overall, and 12-4 ATS in their past 16 games against teams with a winning record. In addition, they're 7-1 ATS in their past eight non-conference battles, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven games at a neutral site.
-- The total is set at 69. The 'over' is a dominant trend on both sides. The 'over' is 11-3 in the past 14 overall for Michigan State, and 4-1 in their past five bowl games. The over has hit in five of the past six neutral-site games for Sparty, and the over is 4-0 in their past four games on field turf. Plus, the over has cashed in six of the past eight following an ATS cover for Michigan State. For Baylor, the over is a whopping 40-16-2 in the past 58 games, and 6-1 in their past seven non-conference games. The over has also cashed in six of the past seven non-conference games, and is 27-10-2 in their past 39 games on field turf.
-- When the Spartans have the ball, QB Connor Cook is a caretaker who makes very few mistakes. He has completed 58.2 percent of his passes, posting 2,900 passing yards with 22 touchdowns and just six interceptions. WR Tony Lippett is the star with downfield ability, posting 60 receptions for 1,124 yards and 11 scores. RB Jeremy Langford finishes off the 'Big Three' for State, as he rolled up 1,360 rushing yards with 19 rushing touchdowns, and he averaged 5.5 yards per carry this season.
-- Bears QB Bryce Petty completed 62.1 percent of his passes this season, totaling 3,305 passing yards with 26 touchdowns and just six interceptions. He has a cadre of receivers with speed to burn. WR Corey Coleman led the way with 57 grabs for 969 yards and 10 touchdowns, while K.D. Cannon checked in with 50 grabs, 833 yards and six scores. WR Antwan Goodley missed three games this season, but still ended up with 51 catches, 737 yards and six scores, while WR Jay Lee also showed how dangerous he can be with 39 grabs, 596 yards and six scores, averaging 15.3 yards per catch. The Spartans will have to keep tabs on RB Shock Linwood, too, as he ran for 1,226 yards and 16 scores while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Freshman Johnny Jefferson had three touchdowns in the final two games, and six scores all season. Devin Chafin also showed that the cupboard is anything but bare when Linwood leaves, as he had seven rushing touchdowns in a three-game span from Nov. 1-22.
-- Kickoff is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**Missouri vs. Minnesota**
In the second of three New Year's Day SEC vs. Big Ten battles, Missouri and Minnesota do battle in the sunshine of Orlando, Fla. at the Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl.
-- Missouri (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) won their final six games in the regular season, going 5-1 ATS during the span. They were roughed up by Alabama in the SEC Championship Game by a 42-13 score, but they fared well against bowl teams this season for the most part. Mizzou went 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in nine games against postseason qualifiers.
-- Minnesota (8-4 SU/ATS) was one of the bigger surprises in the nation this season, but they sputtered a bit down the stretch to fall out of contention for the Big Ten Championship Game. They still qualified for their first January bowl game in 53 years, and they're looking for their second nine-win season in 109 years. In fact, they have a losing record in five games since Oct. 25, going 2-3 SU. However, the Gophers were 4-1 ATS during the span, including covers in their final four regular season games. Against bowl teams, the Gophers went 2-4 SU and 4-2 ATS in six games.
-- The Tigers dismissed their best receiver before the start of the season, but the offense didn't seem to skip a beat. QB Maty Mauk stepped right in for the departed James Franklin to post 2,551 yards, 23 touchdowns and just 11 interceptions while rolling up 355 rushing yards and a score. He isn't necessarily a dual-threat QB, but he isn't a statue back there either. RB Russell Hansbrough topped the charts for the Tigers with 970 yards, 5.1 yards per carry and nine rushing scores against mostly tough SEC competition. Marcus Murphy was a nice chance-of-pace back posting 767 yards and four touchdowns, including three in the final two regular season games. WR Bud Sasser was best of the lot in the receiving game, going for 70 grabs, a team-best 935 yards and 10 touchdowns. In fact, Sasser was just one of three SEC receivers to go for double-digit touchdown receptions, joining Alabama's Amari Cooper (14) and Texas A&M's Josh Reynolds (13).
-- The Gophers do not pass the ball much, and QB Mitch Leidner completed just 49 percent of his passes while totaling 1,540 yards, 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He is more effective as a runner, posting 462 yards with 10 rushing scores. Only RB David Cobb had more, running for 1,545 yards and 13 touchdowns. TE Maxx Williams is the big-play threat in the passing game, as he was the only played on the roster with more than 15 receptions. He had 29 snares for 471 yards while accounting for seven of Minnesota's 11 receiving touchdowns.
-- Mizzou heads in 4-1 ATS over the past five games against teams with a winning record, 19-7-1 ATS in the past 27 games overall, and 9-3-1 ATS in the past 13 non-conference battles. For Minnesota, the Gophers are 5-0 ATS in the past five against a team with a winning record, 9-4 ATS in the past 13 non-conference tilts and 4-0 in their past four overall.
-- The under is 7-3-1 in the past 11 games overall for Missouri, but the over is 4-0 in the past four neutral-site battles. The over is 6-1-1 in the past eight games for Missouri on a grass surface. The under is 4-1 in Minnesota's past five non-conference games, and 11-5 in their past 16 games overall. The under is also 4-1 in their past five non-conference tilts, and 4-0 in their past four battles on a grass surface.
-- Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC.