Stephen Nover
Thursday's Play
100 Dime - Smu-Nevada UNDER the Total
The oddsmaker has set a huge total on this SMU-Nevada Hawaii Bowl matchup taking into account both team's high-scoring offenses and lack of defense.
But the oddsmaker is ignoring the reality of the situation. The Mustangs and Wolf Pack are not going to reach this monster number.
Nevada leads the nation in rushing. The Wolf Pack set an NCAA record with three 1,000-yard rushers this season. But two of these players, Luke Lippincott and Vai Taua, aren't going to play. Lippincott is out with a toe injury, while Taua was ruled academically ineligible for the bowl game.
Their replacements are sophomore Lampford Mark and freshman Mike Ball. They have a combined 44 carries between them.
Nevada runs a finely-tuned Pistol Offense. But the Wolf Pack last played nearly a month ago. Their offense is going to be out of sync. Nevada has lost its bowl game each of the past three years, averaging just 18.3 points.
SMU coach June Jones is familiar with Nevada's Pistol Offense having coached at Hawaii from 1999-2007. Nevada and Hawaii are Western Athletic Conference schools.
The Mustangs averaged 27.9 points and 380 yards per game. Those marks are good, but not great ranking them 55th and 61st, respectively. Nevada's pass defense ranked 119th out of 120 FBS teams, giving up 284.3 yards per game.
So you can see why the oddsmaker has set such a high total.
But SMU's offensive rhythm is going to be off, too, since it last played two days after Thanksgiving.
The Mustangs averaged 25.4 points in their last five games. Nevada also has been playing better defense. If you discount the 44 points powerful Boise State scored on Nevada, the Wolf Pack have given up an average of 15.5 points in its last four games.
Nevada is a running team of course. SMU has become more balanced. A lot of running keeps the clock moving. That's important with
Thursday's Play
100 Dime - Smu-Nevada UNDER the Total
The oddsmaker has set a huge total on this SMU-Nevada Hawaii Bowl matchup taking into account both team's high-scoring offenses and lack of defense.
But the oddsmaker is ignoring the reality of the situation. The Mustangs and Wolf Pack are not going to reach this monster number.
Nevada leads the nation in rushing. The Wolf Pack set an NCAA record with three 1,000-yard rushers this season. But two of these players, Luke Lippincott and Vai Taua, aren't going to play. Lippincott is out with a toe injury, while Taua was ruled academically ineligible for the bowl game.
Their replacements are sophomore Lampford Mark and freshman Mike Ball. They have a combined 44 carries between them.
Nevada runs a finely-tuned Pistol Offense. But the Wolf Pack last played nearly a month ago. Their offense is going to be out of sync. Nevada has lost its bowl game each of the past three years, averaging just 18.3 points.
SMU coach June Jones is familiar with Nevada's Pistol Offense having coached at Hawaii from 1999-2007. Nevada and Hawaii are Western Athletic Conference schools.
The Mustangs averaged 27.9 points and 380 yards per game. Those marks are good, but not great ranking them 55th and 61st, respectively. Nevada's pass defense ranked 119th out of 120 FBS teams, giving up 284.3 yards per game.
So you can see why the oddsmaker has set such a high total.
But SMU's offensive rhythm is going to be off, too, since it last played two days after Thanksgiving.
The Mustangs averaged 25.4 points in their last five games. Nevada also has been playing better defense. If you discount the 44 points powerful Boise State scored on Nevada, the Wolf Pack have given up an average of 15.5 points in its last four games.
Nevada is a running team of course. SMU has become more balanced. A lot of running keeps the clock moving. That's important with
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arty:
todays game by killersportys side and total parlay [nevada-14.5 under 73.5/B]
