umps are going to be tough in 2012. just look at last years b4 the gods of odds started getting the rotations early and plug them into the numbers
[FONT="]I agree on the umpire thoughts of being tough for 2012. Not sure for the same reasoning’s. Researching umpires during the offseason, I found some interesting stuff.[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT]
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[FONT="]Long story short, several years back, MLB started using an outside consulting firm which leverages specific algorithms to determine the umpire’s schedules for the entire season. A large part of this need was to accommodate specific rules the umpires association looked to achieve each year i.e. certain amount of travel distance for each umpire, consecutive games w/o a break, how many time an ump works a certain team, stadium etc. The umpires association tracks these metrics built into these algorithms to ensure not many exceptions exist to the parameters they set up.[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT]
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[FONT="]I have to believe that if the powers that be feel exposed by umpire crews and whose working a new series, that this scheduling algorithm would have been reversed engineered at this point. Now, I do believe that there are still times throughout the season that curve balls and changes are made to the set schedule. Umps get sick, personal time off etc. I believe these are the true 'Waldo' type situations where the information even takes the books by surprise and where you might see quick adjustments in the line as soon as the information is released. [/FONT][FONT="][/FONT]
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[FONT="]Also, with technology becoming ever more relevant and efficient, umpires are getting daily feedback based on the way they called a game behind home plate the night before. I wonder how much the feedback alters an umpire’s game. If I'm consistently being told that certain ratios and metrics of mine being looked at are outliers to the averages based on my peers, at some point I think I would purposely adjust to get in-line with the masses.[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT]
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[FONT="]On a whole - I still feel good about tracking umpires and looking for tendencies based on the strike zones of some of these guys, but for me, this is just one filter of many things to look at.[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT]
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[FONT="]Just some thoughts - to get some dialogue started. [/FONT][FONT="][/FONT]