C-Golds week 15 Early Looks open discussion

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Houston may be a tough place to play, but they are 2-4 ATS at home ( so they don't play as well as they are projected to), and the Titans are 6-0 on the road, and 6-0 ATS. That means the Titans can and do play well on the road.

So if you say Houston is a tough place to come and play, the Titans have answered every challenge they have had on the road.

Houston has one of the best backup QB's in the league, and him over Schaub may not actually be that much of a big deal. I like Gary Kubiak and he has put together a strong defense, but how does that address that defense?

Houston's D can't stop the run, and that is the Titans bread and butter? If Houston gives up 4.6 per carry ( like they average), and the Titans rush for 4.4 per carry ( like they average), then Matt Schaub is going to have to throw a whole lot of TD passes to Andre Johnson against one of the leagues top 3 defenses.

I also don't like the angle that a team has " nothing to play for". These guys are prideful, they have an awsome coach, and nobody likes losing. Nobody is going to run out there 75% for the titans, and if some of the backups come in, they will try their very best to shine.

The only validity I do see to " they have nothing to play for", is that the Titans might not bust out their trick plays, or bread and butter plays on 3rd down for the eye in the sky. They might run more base sets so that future opponents won't see what they are really looking to do.


I may place a wager on all 5 home dogs this weekend anyway, but I think saying Houston is a tough place to play doesn't have so much validity.


Well stated and some very good points.
If you take turnovers away from the Texans they are playing some of the best Football worth watching today. Keep in mind, they had Indy by 3 scores with time running out at home. I agree the Titans hove owned them the past few years, and I think that adds fuel to the fire. I think they come out fired up and win straight up.
You have not talked me out of the ML bet yet, but keep trying. If the Texans hold onto the ball, they will win this game by a touchdown.
 

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Well if it makes you feel any better, I think at least 3 of the 5 home underdogs cover.

If the Texans defense can slow down Len WHALE or Chris Johnson at all, it will make the job a heck of a lot easier for Matt Schaub.

I think the Texans have a strong offense led by the zone blocking schemes and principles run by Shannihan, Alex Gibbs in the Denver format. It is a very QB friendly offense that spaces out the defense, has some not too difficult reads/throws, runs the ball, misdirection, zone blocking with the potential for big gains etc. It is a cookie cutter offense, but it works.

I saw it fail with Michael Vick. For what a QB's responsibility is for how much damage it can do to a score board, I love the offense and it was only a matter of time before Kubiak got "players" in there who could run it ( David Carr is really dumb, although not Mike Convict animal beastiality, primate, evolution dumb level).


The thing is how effective can this offense be vs the titans? Is Cortlan Finnigan playing? Can Houston generate 20+ points? Can they stop the Titans run at all? Will they turn the ball over?

If you think the Titans are just going to quit because they are sitting pretty, I think you are mistaken and you don't know Jeff Fisher. If you think the Titans are due for a loss/bad game on their 1 loss season, that's a different matter.
 

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Tkim11- Redskins fans are the worst slime on the planet. Everybody says the Raiders, Eagles and Cowboys have the worst fans and I see their point, but Washington fans are the worst by far.

Redskins fans sign 5 free agents every february dishing out those Snyder bucks to riddulous contracts to the free agents out there. They bring these guys in, and every year the fans say this is their year.

They bring in new and old coaches to win. Steve Spurrier is the hot NFL coach, Martyball, old man gibbs to bring them back to the glory days?

I remeber the NFL had a preseason exhibition game in Tokoyo in I want to say the 2002 preseason. It was Steve Spurriers first or second game in the NFL, and the Redskins blew out an awful 49ers team. The Redskins hype machine was counting their wins and buying their Super Bowl tickets. It was great!

Every damn year they run their mouths, and every year they dissapoint. You would think that if you spend the most money in the league on a team every year, that you might make the playoffs, but not snyder bucks.

There was a stat that the redskins brough in 22 former pro bowl players since maybe the year 2000, and none of them had made the probowl as a Redskin. It is all just 1 giant payday.

Players go play in New England because they want to play for a championship, players go play in Washington because they want inflated Danny Snyder bucks.

The worst part of all is the Redskins fans bitch about the Eagles/Cowboys fans all the time. Ohhhhh, they are front runners, ooooooh they aren't that good, oooohhhhh dallas has the worst fans.

God damn homeboy, you nailed it on the dot. Skins don't know what they want to do. Do they want to be a running team or a passing team? An offensive giant or a defensive monster? All they do is talk. OMG, and if they have beaten Ravens...holy shit we would have heard so much about how their season is turning around and superbowl is in sight...such bullshit.

First few weeks, skins fans were talking about how Jason Campbell is finally coming into his own and is thriving in Zorn's system and how Zorn is a genius. On Monday, I heard nothing but bitching about Zorn and how terrible Campbell is, how they need to release him and he's not fit for the skins...WTF? Campbell had to learn how many different systems? Its like learning to speak a new language every season and expecting him to be proficient.

Fucken fans and owner wants nothing but instant gratification. This is a fucken pro sport. You're getting an easy win. You're not gonna buy a win. Fucken worthless, the skins fans are. Done bitching about the skins fan.
 

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God damn homeboy, you nailed it on the dot. Skins don't know what they want to do. Do they want to be a running team or a passing team? An offensive giant or a defensive monster? All they do is talk. OMG, and if they have beaten Ravens...holy shit we would have heard so much about how their season is turning around and superbowl is in sight...such bullshit.

First few weeks, skins fans were talking about how Jason Campbell is finally coming into his own and is thriving in Zorn's system and how Zorn is a genius. On Monday, I heard nothing but bitching about Zorn and how terrible Campbell is, how they need to release him and he's not fit for the skins...WTF? Campbell had to learn how many different systems? Its like learning to speak a new language every season and expecting him to be proficient.

Fucken fans and owner wants nothing but instant gratification. This is a fucken pro sport. You're getting an easy win. You're not gonna buy a win. Fucken worthless, the skins fans are. Done bitching about the skins fan.


Nahhh, that Jason Campbell playing under 4 offenses in 6 years is bullshit. You want me to feel sympathy because he changed coaches his Jr. year of college, Sr. year of college, and rookie year in the NFL? Geez, should college freshman get a free pass because they played under different offenses in high school? It is just another excuse from the redskins fans backing their 23 chromosone quarterback. He's white trash.

The Redskins just want instant gratification.

There was some tool on sports talk 980 trying to equate the 2008 Redskins to the 2007 Giants. He said that they could easily... or possibly go on a magical run where they win all the rest of their games ( against playoff teams that they can't seen to score more than 7 points against) and win the super bowl.

I think Jason Campbell winning a nobel prize in economics is much more likely.
:laugh:
 

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Really like that Miami SF write up....Miami looks like a winner


Miami is a border line playoff team, SF is one of the weaker teams in the league, but when 1 team is so good in the turnover battle, and 1 team is so bad... it wouldn't shock me if Miami had a shocking score winning by 28 points ( due to turnovers). Then again, if SF doesn't turn it over, they can pull off that upset win.
 

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Alright fellas, Let's corner the bookies and make some money. If we all contribute our knowledge ( some people know certain teams more than others), we can beat the books.

Back in the "covers" days, I used to publish my early leans/thoughts and other quality cappers like Glyde, Slingzz, Blitzbandit, would weigh in. Usually, we'd see pretty eye to eye. So this week I am turning back the clock to the old format. Let's make some MAHDA FAWKEING MONEY !!!



Chicago/New Orleans
- New Orleans is 1-5 on the road, I can't get that stat past my mind. That offense averages 28 PPG overall, but only 22 PPG on the road. The Saints could score 51 points on Green Bay at home, but then shit out 7 points vs Carolina on the road.
- Chicago is 4-2 at home with their only losses at TD loss to the Titans, and an OT Loss to the Bucs. The Bears defense has actually performed a little worst statistically at home, but their offense has performed better. I susupect that MOST of that data comes from that outlier 48-41 win vs Minnesota.
- I see some key injuries for the Saints on defense. C. Grant, Mckenzie and Porter hurt, Kaesvaharn is a starter the bum safety is injured but that guy should go back to substitute teaching.
- The Bears are actually pretty healty, with Nathan Vasher as the only real key injury.

Total opened at 46 and got bought down to 44.5
The Saints have gone over 13-4-1 out of their last 18
The Saints have gone over 19-7-1 out of their last 27 vs NFC
Chicago has gone over 19-7 of their last 26 home games
Chicago has gone over 27-11-1 out of hteir last 39 vs NFC

I would lean Bears and the over right now. This is a rematch of 2 years ago's NFC Championship and the Bears won at home 39-14. Drew Brees had no run game ( Reggie Bush ran for 19 yards). Brees had to do it all by himself, throwing for 354 in a losing effort while Sexy Rexy completed 11/26 passes for 144 yards and "managed the game". This is a classic offense vs defense, and the home field favors the Bears. That Saints offense just isn't as potent on grass and in the cold and wind.


I hate losing bets
I also hate not playing winnings bets....

but I don't feel sorry at all for missing out on this one. Interceptions, turnovers, Kyle Orton etc.
 

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here we go again

SD @ KC

SD is not who we thought they were this year as they have lost 5 of their last 7 games. They have had a heavy dose of bad calls, inconsistant road play, LT hitting a wall, Turner gone, Merriman out, and Norv Turner.

KC has actually won 2 in a row winning @ Oakland and @ Denver. Their last 2 home games they gave up a combined 84 points in losses.

When I think of homefield advantage, the Chiefs are one team I think of, so starting out a 3.5 point dog, bought already up to 6 is interesting. The public is sure to bet on KC, and home dogs haven't done well this year. Is now the time to lay some coin on KC?

Tyler Thigpen has thrown 14 TDs, 8 INTs and has a respectable 77 QB rating for a young guy coming out of nowhere. Is that enough to take the home dog? They still do have the HERM at head coach.

The under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings
The dog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings
KC in december, home underdog

KC could be a home dog that cashes, but I'd like to look at other games before taking an unproven QB and the HERM.

what year is this from????????? cause KC has only 2 wins in this whole year and they were in week 4 and week 13 thats not 2 in a row your teams are right but they beat denver the first time they played them in week 4 not last week.....seriously do you watch football??? :lolBIG:

:think2: wow
 

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what year is this from????????? cause KC has only 2 wins in this whole year and they were in week 4 and week 13 thats not 2 in a row your teams are right but they beat denver the first time they played them in week 4 not last week.....seriously do you watch football??? :lolBIG:

:think2: wow


KC won in a row 2 ATS, it was a mistake. When you have all of this information, you are bound to have a mistake.


Where is your thread by the way? Do you make picks or just try and start fights with other people? My guess is that you already lost your entire bankroll and now you are bitter.
:103631605
 

Rx, Junior
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lookem up i went 10-3 in college football last week and i had a bad week 14 in nfl at 3-3 but because of unit plays ended up +units but nothing to write home about
 

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here is a little parlay i hit on tuesday just so you know some of my skills trust me between cbb cfb nba nfl boxing mma i am waaaaaay up on the year
Result: Wager Won

Bucks(Milwaukee) 110
Suns(Phoenix) 125 12/09/08(21:10 ET)
Suns(Phoenix) -6.5

Pistons(Detroit) 94
Wizards(Washington) 107 12/09/08(19:10 ET)
Wizards(Washington) +4.5

Raptors(Toronto) 94
Cavaliers(Cleveland) 114 12/09/08(19:10 ET)
Cavaliers(Cleveland) -11.5

Raptors(Toronto) 94
Cavaliers(Cleveland) 114 12/09/08(19:10 ET)
Over 193
 

Rx, Junior
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im just giving you crap because you talk a big game but my friend has challenged you to a $5000 challenge and you wont accept i mean since your the best which you have claimed in the past then put your money where your mouth is at accept the challenge
 

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Hannowsky77-

I believe you are AWC.

Nobody reads your threads, so you come into mine and talk trash. Then you brag about your college football record ( this is the NFL FORUM Can you read?????) Hey, why don't you tell me your record betting Womens basketball too???

Then you come in here posting some bogus record, and "challenging me". Why would I accept a challenge against you? Do you even have 5,000 bucks? Save your money and pay your bookie.

PLEASE stay out of my threads. Nobody wants to see your NBA parlays. If you want to post your NBA Parlays, go start your own NBA soap box thread, and you could pound your chest and tell everybody how great you are on bets you already made.


I wish the mods policed this place better.
 

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C-gold - remember you from covers - still very critical of the skins, lol - tho I agree w/ some of what u say on them. BTw- i don;t think Tavaris is overhyped by the media, the only one was Childress putting so much stock in him.

What do you think of the Biucs w/out Garcia, it looks like. I was liking Atl, but unsure of where they are going to put the line when they re-release it.
I'm on the Ravens @ -1 - Bens gonna get knocked down a lot,

I want to tease Miami down w/ someone - Pats worry me, I think I might tease up NYG to 10 - ??

As for that Jags line - it looks funky as hell to me - I could see the Jags running on them - stay away game for me
 

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Malik-

Good to see you from Covers. Way back when you probably remember me bashing Michael Vick and Byron Leftwhich, the way I bash Jason Campbell today. Everybody was calling me a "hater", but how did that turn out? I was 2/2 on those, and I was fading vick when people actually liked him. I knew from personal contacts at Virginia Tech that he was " white trash". It sure is great to see him behind bars.

They were just reading off all the shit he spent his money on in the last 3 years because he filed for bankrupcy. He spent 18 million dollars, they were naming off the houses he bought for his mom, 3 of his baby mama's the cars he bought them, the cars for himself ( must have been about 20). Boats, cars, jewlry, he bought a 45,000 dollar fish tank right before he went to jail, he bought a 99,000 dollar Benz on a debit card and drove it to jail. He started a bunch of illigit businesses that all failed... the only one that worked was the illegal dog fighting. Oh, and he spent 1 million in cash. I am sure it was all drug money. The dude is bankrupt now, and ESPN was talking abot Matt Ryan vs Vick, and how much he means to the fans down there etc. etc. etc.

Brian Greise isn't a stud, but he is a decent backup who can fill in. I don't think he is a huge drop off from Garcia. In the last matchup earlier this year, the Bucs won 24-9, and that D shut down Atlanta's strong run game. The only problem ( as we saw last week), is that Tampa's defense is MUCH better at home than they are on the road. Take oout Gaines Adams out of that lineup and it could be even worse. The Bucs had real problems stopping Carolina, and Atlanta has a strong run game as well. I am a Buc better, but I am probably laying off this one. If you want to tease it up to +10, that should work though. Last week was the only game this season that Tampa lost by more than 4 points. The other losses were 3 and 4 point losses. I haven't watched Atlanta as much this year, so I am not too much of an expert on them.

I'd rather tease the Pats down than the Dolphins. I was looking at the Jets/Fins because those 7 point lines work nice for teasers, but who knows. The Pats D was banged up and looked like shit last week vs Senecca Wallace, but Wes Welker looked awsome. The Pats played a lax game, and had that bad deion branch call, and still pulled it off. The Raiders are a terrible football team. I might end up going Pats/Jets, because they should bounce back vs Barfalo. I'll let you know.

Green Bay is the better team, but they are on the road, and I want to play every single home dog. The Jags are in dissary, but the thing that I do like actually about the Jags, is that Green Bay's run defense is a joke. If the Jags just let David Garrard play game manager ( not throw), and hand off to his 2 solid RB's, then he won't have to win the game. Mobile quarterbacks need the game dumbed down for them.
 

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Right now my only play is Wash/Cincy under 37 ( 2 units)

I have leans, I am actually leaning on playing all 5 home dogs to have math on my side, but I'll release the plays as they come in.

I can also tell you that there will be big bets Sunday night on the Giants and on the Cowgirls. Both teams have some dirty laundry in the media, and everybody has a theory about how that will effect play. The books have a nice solid 3 point line, so this game will have huge action on both sides.
 

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I lean denver and the over too...
Denver will probably be a 9 point dog by kickoff
, total at 48 or so?

Carolina is due for a let down after big MNF win + ESPN hype
Carolina can look ahead to the Giants next week

Broncos have won 3 of their last 4
Denver beat the hyped up Jets a couple of weeks ago
Denver is has gone over 9-2-2 in last 13 games as an underdog

I can just see Jay Cutler with a chip on his shoulder, hearing how great carolina is etc. etc. etc. just like with the Jets win.


Denver's run d sucks, that is the only thing that worries mem but 9 points is a nice cushion.

Denver is 4-2 on the road, and can score points on the road... The line should probably be 7, but if you can get it at 9 by kickoff ( it should be), it looks like a solid fade the public play.
 

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ADD


Arizona -3 ( 1.5 units)

Once the public starts checking the newswires, they will see that Terrible Tavaras Jackson gets the start for the Vikings and fade them. The line could end up Arizona -3.5 so buy in now if you like them.


The Cards are 5-1 at home, with their only loss being to a stout New York Giants team. The Vikings are 3-4 on the road, and breaking in their new old quarterback. The Vikings beat one of the worst teams in NFL history by 4 points last week. Jackson is another guy that will try and dink and dunk you and his really inaccurate, so the Cards have the potential for some good dame planning on defense.

I bet 1.5 units, didn't go all out, because Minnesota has an awsome defense. This game, has very good offense, vs very good defense, but Jared Allen is banged up ( he will probably play, but hurt). The Vikings can stop the run, but aren't so great against the pass and Allen is banged up. I fear Arizona turnovers, but then again, TJ could have 3 or 4 on his own if Childress opens up the gameplan to much more than dinking and dunking.

This isn't a lock by any means, I just see Zona trying to wrap up their playoff spot fair and square, while Minnesota is going through a QB change. They do have a good defense and the purple jesus at RB....


but the deciding factor for me is the Cardinals have a pretty good coaching advantage. I think Brad Childress, his QB evaluation and play calling is horrible, while I LIKE what Wisenhunt, Russ Grimm and John Lott are building in Arizona. I like Ken over many of the other new and young head coaches, and I think he is much better than bald old man, don't let your dog shit on my lawn Brad Childress. Cards win.

:toast:
 

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I found my 2nd leg of my teaser...

Denver has scored 41 points or more 8 games in a row.
Carolina has gone over 5 games in a row.

There is no reason why 41 points or less would be scored in this game. Cutler will go down gunning, the Panthers should be able to run the ball vs a patty cake Denver run D. For the record, I may also have a play on Denver +9, I think Carolina wins, but Denver covers. I generally don't like betting on a dog that I think will lose, but I think denver has a better than 60% chance of covering.


Right now the Pats line hasn't really moved, because of Cassells father dying. There is no word on whether or not he plays, but this is a HUGE game for his career and the Pats.

Bellicheck isn't one to give out injury news/status so I really doubt he would announce that Cassell will play, but I think that if O'Connell was playing we would know. If Cassell isn't playing, this teaser doesn't look as good, but part of the gambel is that he will play. I hope he will be "favre like", but against the Raiders he might not need to. If the Pats lose, look for all those headlines that the Pats are "dead". If Cassell plays, I like this teaser a lot.


ADD

2.5 units
Patriots -5./Panthers + Denver over 41
 

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Update

Teaser: Pats -.5/Panthers + Denver Over 41 ( 2.5 units)
Redskins/Bengals under 37 ( 2 units)
Arizona Cardinals -3 ( 1.5 units)

I am also leaning to play all 5 dogs at 12:30 Sunday to get the best lines. At least 3 of them should cover, maybe 4. I would rank the probability that 3 covering is the most likely, then 4 covering, then 2 covering, then 1+5, then all and none. The books aren't giving anything away by week 15.
 

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