I think that's the real beauty here is all you need to do is hit 50% and you're making nice profits. I do have something in mind if this just does OK and not as good as I'm hoping. If it completely fails, then what I'm thinking won't help at all. I'm going to track something on my own with these plays as well and if I see something, I'll explain.
See that's something that will have to be worked out. For example, tonight the Phillies and D-Backs would be a play at ML, however, there is more value with RL. So do we get greedy and take the better "value" or do we play it safe and take the better chance of winning? For now, it is strictly the best value that will be plays.
It is really the exact same value as my NBA system. Just takes more calculations to find that value. It's not really a new system at all, it just follows the mold of the NBA system, which was quite profitable.
Lurker Contributes...a bit.
Hey gang and Broncos:
I have lurked through your basketball thread and variations of baseball for some time now.
I would like to thank Broncos for getting me out of the silly Service Plays and into some intelligent handicapping discussion.
Because of Broncos post, I bought a full package with Accuscore. I am not affiliated in anyway with them. Their product is very good and genuine.
Basketball was a nice run. I just used the 60% mark and all was well.
Even hockey had some real value although each game now shows the over being strong (for some reason) and it has not been.
Baseball gave me a pause for understanding as well as Broncos. Posse has been very helpful, but I didn't understand what the 16 points of expected value was or where the numbers came from...but I do now.
My baseball picks have faired a bit better than Broncos but that was due, in part, to a few amazing days. I always checked Broncos picks mainly to see if I was seeing the games well and most of the time we were thinking alike.
My strategy was to use the side value percentage selections only when there is a 6.5 or greater difference between the ML and the SV. However, like Posse, I found the RL odds on the Favs to be too juicy to pass up.
It is a bitch when a team gives up some meaningless 9th inning runs by trading them for outs...but the math on the simulations is sometimes incredible.
I have been trying to figure out whether home teams or road teams have an advantage with RL.
When the home team is the selection, they only have 24 outs to work with unless they hit a home run with men on base in the bottom of the 9th. Any other scenario...you lose.
Road teams that are favs with EV/SV get 27 outs to pad the score but I cannot tell if the linemaker is adjusting the line to favor this.
I will try to contribute more as I am sold on Accuscore as a solid foundational pond to swim in and I thank you Broncos for bringing this information to light.
Catch
Hey gang and Broncos:
I have lurked through your basketball thread and variations of baseball for some time now.
I would like to thank Broncos for getting me out of the silly Service Plays and into some intelligent handicapping discussion.
Because of Broncos post, I bought a full package with Accuscore. I am not affiliated in anyway with them. Their product is very good and genuine.
Basketball was a nice run. I just used the 60% mark and all was well.
Even hockey had some real value although each game now shows the over being strong (for some reason) and it has not been.
Baseball gave me a pause for understanding as well as Broncos. Posse has been very helpful, but I didn't understand what the 16 points of expected value was or where the numbers came from...but I do now.
My baseball picks have faired a bit better than Broncos but that was due, in part, to a few amazing days. I always checked Broncos picks mainly to see if I was seeing the games well and most of the time we were thinking alike.
My strategy was to use the side value percentage selections only when there is a 6.5 or greater difference between the ML and the SV. However, like Posse, I found the RL odds on the Favs to be too juicy to pass up.
It is a bitch when a team gives up some meaningless 9th inning runs by trading them for outs...but the math on the simulations is sometimes incredible.
I have been trying to figure out whether home teams or road teams have an advantage with RL.
When the home team is the selection, they only have 24 outs to work with unless they hit a home run with men on base in the bottom of the 9th. Any other scenario...you lose.
Road teams that are favs with EV/SV get 27 outs to pad the score but I cannot tell if the linemaker is adjusting the line to favor this.
I will try to contribute more as I am sold on Accuscore as a solid foundational pond to swim in and I thank you Broncos for bringing this information to light.
Catch
Another Strategy
Oh, I forgot. I often will split the bet between the RL and ML. I learned this in a very good book on baseball called "Betting Baseball". Basically you are covering your bet with the ML in case the team wins by one run. When they blow out, you make a lot more than just a ML bet. When your team loses the game, same loss. When your team wins by one run, you push.
I find this helpful with road favs and smaller favs with big RL numbers. I am not swinging quite so wildly for the fence.
RL's are very beguiling. Although we haven't had that many close game nights yet this year, there will be evening when a lot of games are close and RL's are tough to cover. So, it is more of a bankroll management thing. I am sure though that Posse would be right that this year RL's would come out better, so far.
One last point, if anyone has a machine that could tell me when a betting line on baseball has peaked...I want to buy it! LOL
I check the lines in the am and sometimes secure some bets that I think are going to move badly for me later. Check the lines late in the afternoon and the line would have been much better for me to wait.
Old tricks from football, like betting favs early in the week and dogs late don't seem to apply to baseball. Anymore, I just bet and pray the line does not get better later.
LOL
Catch
Oh, I forgot. I often will split the bet between the RL and ML. I learned this in a very good book on baseball called "Betting Baseball". Basically you are covering your bet with the ML in case the team wins by one run. When they blow out, you make a lot more than just a ML bet. When your team loses the game, same loss. When your team wins by one run, you push.
I find this helpful with road favs and smaller favs with big RL numbers. I am not swinging quite so wildly for the fence.
RL's are very beguiling. Although we haven't had that many close game nights yet this year, there will be evening when a lot of games are close and RL's are tough to cover. So, it is more of a bankroll management thing. I am sure though that Posse would be right that this year RL's would come out better, so far.
One last point, if anyone has a machine that could tell me when a betting line on baseball has peaked...I want to buy it! LOL
I check the lines in the am and sometimes secure some bets that I think are going to move badly for me later. Check the lines late in the afternoon and the line would have been much better for me to wait.
Old tricks from football, like betting favs early in the week and dogs late don't seem to apply to baseball. Anymore, I just bet and pray the line does not get better later.
LOL
Catch
Wow This Sucks
I just came on to post about our winner, and come to find out that my plays weren't posted this morning. Guess it doesn't matter as I'm sure most have jumped ship by now.
5/9 Plays:
LAD RL
Brewers RL
Houston Under 9.5
Zona Under 9.5
This is the card, I'm very sorry and don't know what happened earlier as anyone who is still playing missed out on a winner. Anyone should know that I am an honest person and I'm not lying about the LAD play. I've been very honest and again, I am very sorry and don't know why my post didn't post this morning.
Anyway, 2-6 last night. If things don't turn around by end of weekend, I'm probably done posting for a while. Today and tomorrow will determine that.
YTD Records:
Old System:
ML Favs: 32-16 (+21.95)
ML Dogs: 13-22 (-7.40)
RL Favs: 6-7 (-2.25)
Totals: 11-9 (+4.80)
Total: 62-54 (+17.10 units)
New System:
ML Favs: 0-0
ML Dogs: 0-1 (-3.00)
RL Favs: 1-5 (-11.40)
Totals: 1-0 (+3.00)
Total: 2-6 (-11.40 units)
I just came on to post about our winner, and come to find out that my plays weren't posted this morning. Guess it doesn't matter as I'm sure most have jumped ship by now.
5/9 Plays:
LAD RL
Brewers RL
Houston Under 9.5
Zona Under 9.5
This is the card, I'm very sorry and don't know what happened earlier as anyone who is still playing missed out on a winner. Anyone should know that I am an honest person and I'm not lying about the LAD play. I've been very honest and again, I am very sorry and don't know why my post didn't post this morning.
Anyway, 2-6 last night. If things don't turn around by end of weekend, I'm probably done posting for a while. Today and tomorrow will determine that.
YTD Records:
Old System:
ML Favs: 32-16 (+21.95)
ML Dogs: 13-22 (-7.40)
RL Favs: 6-7 (-2.25)
Totals: 11-9 (+4.80)
Total: 62-54 (+17.10 units)
New System:
ML Favs: 0-0
ML Dogs: 0-1 (-3.00)
RL Favs: 1-5 (-11.40)
Totals: 1-0 (+3.00)
Total: 2-6 (-11.40 units)
No Redboarding
Broncos and all:
I have everyone of your plays today (without seeing them) (somehow missed Milwaukee though) except I gambled a bit more with a few more plays. Yesterday was my worst day since joining Accuscore (like yours, I believe).
As I am writing this we just won another with Astros Under.
Variance and probability is a bitch and plays a biggggg role in baseball because of the number of games. You're never as good as your hot streaks and never as bad as your cold streaks.
Anyone who left missed a very good day.
Congrats.
Catch
Broncos and all:
I have everyone of your plays today (without seeing them) (somehow missed Milwaukee though) except I gambled a bit more with a few more plays. Yesterday was my worst day since joining Accuscore (like yours, I believe).
As I am writing this we just won another with Astros Under.
Variance and probability is a bitch and plays a biggggg role in baseball because of the number of games. You're never as good as your hot streaks and never as bad as your cold streaks.
Anyone who left missed a very good day.
Congrats.
Catch
Wow, 4-0 today. Unfortunately, only 3 would have been available to play for anyone looking as something happened when I thought I posted this morning. Anyway, I managed to get just about all of my money back that I've lost over the past week and a half as I did a four teamer with all the plays that paid very nicely. I hope we are now on an upswing....not sure I can handle a continued down swing. Anyway, its a big relief to finally have a good night.
YTD Records:
Old System:
ML Favs: 32-16 (+21.95)
ML Dogs: 13-22 (-7.40)
RL Favs: 6-7 (-2.25)
Totals: 11-9 (+4.80)
Total: 62-54 (+17.10 units)
New System:
ML Favs: 0-0
ML Dogs: 0-1 (-3.00)
RL Favs: 3-5 (-2.25)
Totals: 3-0 (+9.00)
Total: 6-6 (+3.75 units)
Grand Total: 68-60 (+20.85)
YTD Records:
Old System:
ML Favs: 32-16 (+21.95)
ML Dogs: 13-22 (-7.40)
RL Favs: 6-7 (-2.25)
Totals: 11-9 (+4.80)
Total: 62-54 (+17.10 units)
New System:
ML Favs: 0-0
ML Dogs: 0-1 (-3.00)
RL Favs: 3-5 (-2.25)
Totals: 3-0 (+9.00)
Total: 6-6 (+3.75 units)
Grand Total: 68-60 (+20.85)
