2-2 lost a bit.
YTD Records:
ML Favs: 31-16 (+18.95)
ML Dogs: 13-21 (-4.40)
RL Favs: 5-7 (-5.40)
Totals: 11-9 (+4.80)
Total: 60-53 (+13.95 units)
I really hope anyone still playing these are listening to me when I say cut your bets down. Don't play with the mentality that "we're due to hit".
FYI - yesterday all I did was parlay all the plays. When I saw the early games go 1-2, I placed my regular wager on Toronto as I really didn't see a 1-3 day happening. I figured with the paraly, the only way I'd lose out is if the plays went 3-1, otherwise, I'd either win a bunch or cut my losses.
YTD Records:
ML Favs: 31-16 (+18.95)
ML Dogs: 13-21 (-4.40)
RL Favs: 5-7 (-5.40)
Totals: 11-9 (+4.80)
Total: 60-53 (+13.95 units)
I really hope anyone still playing these are listening to me when I say cut your bets down. Don't play with the mentality that "we're due to hit".
FYI - yesterday all I did was parlay all the plays. When I saw the early games go 1-2, I placed my regular wager on Toronto as I really didn't see a 1-3 day happening. I figured with the paraly, the only way I'd lose out is if the plays went 3-1, otherwise, I'd either win a bunch or cut my losses.
I am still learning the nuances of the whole sportsbetting scene but one thing I know beyond any doubt is that none of the people on this sight who are generous enough to share their information free of charge on this forum have ever actually placed a bet for me. I have placed everyone myself,win or lose.It seems utterly ridiculous to lay any responsibility for any bet YOU make
at someone elses feet. I like to take all the info I get here and compare it to my own research then bet accordingly,and though the opinions on this forum weigh heavily into a lot of my decisions I am the one,the ONLY one accountable for where MY money gets placed.
Well said...my feelings exactly. Is sign of immaturity or bad manners to blame those who share their hard work handicapping for the benefit of others in this forum. It is gambling pure and simple and when you bet you risk losing....and hopefully you find a combination of systems and research that helps you to win more than you lose...good luck to all and thanks for the sharing done on this site by Broncos and others.:toast:
That's good for you Jack. I wish you the best of luck. I don't know shit about Baseball, so I follow blindly. Now, if you ask me about NFL or College FB then that's a different story. This is my first year betting on MLB, so I don't know the first thing bout it. It'll take a while to get it down but in the mean time I'm gonna follow people's systems that I see was (big WAS) making a profit at one point in time. I'm not gonna pick and choose from the man's system which game or team I feel has the best chance of winning.
Also, anyone knowingly and willingly posting their plays on forums such as this one, knows what they are getting into. You tell me a high profile celeb doesn't know what comes with the territory of being a star. Obviously you're gonna have your paparazzi and critiques, but when you win, you're gonna have a huge following and fan base. So all I'm saying is if people decide to post their picks, they very well know what to expect. Good and bad.
YTD Records:
ML Favs: 32-16 (+21.95)
ML Dogs: 13-22 (-7.40)
RL Favs: 6-7 (-2.25)
Totals: 11-9 (+4.80)
Total: 62-54 (+17.10 units)
I'm thinking I may get rid of dog plays here. Or at the very least, only play dogs with tremendous value. They just aren't paying off. I'm hitting at a very nice rate on favs though so hopefully that'll continue.
ML Favs: 32-16 (+21.95)
ML Dogs: 13-22 (-7.40)
RL Favs: 6-7 (-2.25)
Totals: 11-9 (+4.80)
Total: 62-54 (+17.10 units)
I'm thinking I may get rid of dog plays here. Or at the very least, only play dogs with tremendous value. They just aren't paying off. I'm hitting at a very nice rate on favs though so hopefully that'll continue.
Broncos- The reason your dogs do not make money is because the dogs you release almost never have a 16.0 expected value, where as the majority of the favorites you release come close or eclipse the 16.0 barrier. Last night if you just played (as I did) $100 on all of Accuscore's plays that were 16.0 expected value you would have won the Cards RL (+120), Royals RL (+170), Red Sox RL (+130),White Sox RL (+180), and the Cavaliers (-13,-110) for a huge profit. If you play the RL's your record might not look pretty but the units won will be higher over a large sample size.
Broncos- This is all math, I know you are trying to help people but you should come out and say that you are using your own opinions/handicapping as a factor to decide your plays because you still continue to misinterpret the Accuscore data, so to say you are using Accuscore or some computer is just not accurate. Expected value is the only way one can view Accuscore's data if you are using that data as the sole measure of your handicapping skills. If people use Accuscore to help support their own handicapping that is a different story.
If you are playing blackjack basic strategy you always split 9's unless you are against a 7,10, or Ace, it doesnt seem like you should but 2 billion computer hands say otherwise. Math is math, understand it or say you are using your own handicapping.
Broncos- This is all math, I know you are trying to help people but you should come out and say that you are using your own opinions/handicapping as a factor to decide your plays because you still continue to misinterpret the Accuscore data, so to say you are using Accuscore or some computer is just not accurate. Expected value is the only way one can view Accuscore's data if you are using that data as the sole measure of your handicapping skills. If people use Accuscore to help support their own handicapping that is a different story.
If you are playing blackjack basic strategy you always split 9's unless you are against a 7,10, or Ace, it doesnt seem like you should but 2 billion computer hands say otherwise. Math is math, understand it or say you are using your own handicapping.
So you really think there is only one way to interpret the data then? Is that what you're saying here? I'm pretty sure the data is abstract and therefore subject to interpretation by whatever means a person wishes to interpret. While I agree with your logic, and have said so before, and may very well turn to using this, to call me out as being wrong is just ridiculous.
First, the plays I post HAVE value, maybe not the same kind of value you are talking about, but value nonetheless. You make it sound like I am just picking arbitrary games to play. This is not the case at all. Please do not insult my intelligence here. I'm not the idiot you seem to be trying to make me out to be. I am well aware of basic math.
Bottom line is there is more than one way to interpret the numbers and the way you described certainly is one way......and its a damn good way. After all, how could I argue with it as it is based on my NBA interpretation. But to call me a liar without saying "liar" is unreal and completely uncalled for.
To be clear, I am NOT arguing with the logic you present, I simply think calling me out is not the way to make your point.
With all that being said in my previous post, I really think Parquette has a very good point. After all, the NBA system was quite profitable so why wouldn't it translate into profits for MLB? It should.
So today, I will begin basing my MLB plays on my NBA system and finding the same value range. After a preliminary look this morning, it seems most plays are RL plays for favs. Obviously with this, we could hit at under 50% and still make nice profits and the best part is that less of our BR will be exposed.
Today, I will begin doing this. The value structure of a MLB play must match the perceived value found in the NBA system.
Be back at 11. :toast:
So today, I will begin basing my MLB plays on my NBA system and finding the same value range. After a preliminary look this morning, it seems most plays are RL plays for favs. Obviously with this, we could hit at under 50% and still make nice profits and the best part is that less of our BR will be exposed.
Today, I will begin doing this. The value structure of a MLB play must match the perceived value found in the NBA system.
Be back at 11. :toast:
Broncos-
Sorry if my post came out the wrong way. I didnt mean to insult your intelligence or your honesty and if it came off that way, my deepest apologies.
To address your previous post. Yes, there is only one way to interpret the data if you are basing your plays solely on accuscore, it is called expected value. I never have said your plays didnt have value, they just dont present the most value according to Accuscore, do we want to make bets at -110 or -102 at Matchbook, simple decision right, getting the most value for your money, inefficency vs. efficency.
I guess because you are switching to the system I have recommended you have done the math on expected value and come to the realization that the logic I have put forth is indeed correct and we will all make more money from Accuscore by simply understanding expected value. Sorry if we have had a conflict but it has lead you to see the light so my means have in some ways justified the end.
Sorry if my post came out the wrong way. I didnt mean to insult your intelligence or your honesty and if it came off that way, my deepest apologies.
To address your previous post. Yes, there is only one way to interpret the data if you are basing your plays solely on accuscore, it is called expected value. I never have said your plays didnt have value, they just dont present the most value according to Accuscore, do we want to make bets at -110 or -102 at Matchbook, simple decision right, getting the most value for your money, inefficency vs. efficency.
I guess because you are switching to the system I have recommended you have done the math on expected value and come to the realization that the logic I have put forth is indeed correct and we will all make more money from Accuscore by simply understanding expected value. Sorry if we have had a conflict but it has lead you to see the light so my means have in some ways justified the end.
As I've said, it does make perfect sense. If I found value at 60% or higher for NBA, then logic would dictate that the numbers for MLB must work out to find that same expected value for a baseball game. And, since the NBA system really did work well, hitting over 60%, then again logic would dictate that using that same formula for bases should also be quite profitable.
I do appreciate you bringing this to my attention and no worries, we're all here trying to do the same thing. :toast:
Alright, as I've stated in my past several posts, things are changing here. I am going to apply my NBA system standard to MLB. These plays are going to be tracked separately. I will continue to cut and paste my old records with units earned for completeness. Very large card today. All plays are 3 units unless otherwise posted. Each of these play have the value equal to or greater than the value found in an NBA play following my system. With playing so much plus money, I am not counting on a great record, but I do expect nice plus units which is all that matters in bases.
5/8 Plays:
Royals RL +145
ChiSox RL +160
Cleveland RL +165
Cubs Under 9.5
LAD RL +115
Pitt ML +165
Phillies RL +120
Zona RL +160
Good news is, if we even just get a split with these, we will make some nice profits as they are all plus money. Obviously use your head when wagering.
BOL!!!
5/8 Plays:
Royals RL +145
ChiSox RL +160
Cleveland RL +165
Cubs Under 9.5
LAD RL +115
Pitt ML +165
Phillies RL +120
Zona RL +160
Good news is, if we even just get a split with these, we will make some nice profits as they are all plus money. Obviously use your head when wagering.
BOL!!!
