Broncos NEW MLB Thread - 2009

[Broncos625]

oh.. ok.... can u let me know what u are taking the giants RL based off of? thanks... i like the giants as well but i keep getting burned on Rl's

thanks

The old system was based on numbers that I kind of played around with to see what would work. This system, thanks to Parquette Posse for pointing it out, is based on plays having the same value as one of my NBA plays would have using that system. So it is still a numbers based system, but its just math and finding the most value. The value number must at least be the same as a 60% play at -110 in the NBA (which was the criteria I followed all NBA system). The math has to find its MLB equivalent to that.

 

[Funnyb25]

i still dont see why the giants RL is a play....

 

[VegasVic+]

i still dont see why the giants RL is a play....

Because Accuscore shows that the Giants will cover the 1.5 runs 50.8% of the time. Thus, the Giants RL at +135 has an EV of $19.38 for every $100.00 wagered.

(.508 x $135.00)-(.492 x $100.00) = $19.38

 

[Broncos625]

Winner tonight. Putting together a nice little run here.

Old System:

62-54 (+17.10 units)


New System:

ML Favs: 0-0
ML Dogs: 0-1 (-3.00)
RL Favs: 7-7 (+7.95)
Totals: 4-0 (+12.00)

Total: 11-8 (+16.95 units)

Grand Total: 73-62 (+34.05)

Be back in the morning.

 

[JimmyJet]

Way to go Broncos.....am going to start tracking my own selections using the RL to see if the return on investment increases. Makes sense...good luck in all you do...JJ:toast:

 

[Funnyb25]

Broncs.... nice pick witht he giants RL last night.... i am still a tiny bit confused... i see the giants RL was a higher % over the Nats RL, so it was a good investment, but for example, the mets RL was higher than the Braves RL... why was that not a play?? i think after that explanation i wil understand what you're gettin at... or if anyone else knows why, please let me know..

Thanks and GL

 

[Broncos625]

Broncs.... nice pick witht he giants RL last night.... i am still a tiny bit confused... i see the giants RL was a higher % over the Nats RL, so it was a good investment, but for example, the mets RL was higher than the Braves RL... why was that not a play?? i think after that explanation i wil understand what you're gettin at... or if anyone else knows why, please let me know..

Thanks and GL

I don't remember what the percentages were, but its not based solely on percentages. It's also based on what the odds are.

I know you are familiar with my NBA system. With that, playing every game over 60% at -110 would yield a EV of 16. If anything with an EV of 16 is a play with the NBA system, then to be consistent, you must find MLB games with an EV of at least 16.

There is no direct comparison between the percentages each team has of winning or covering the RL. The percentage must be combined with the odds to find the EV of at least 16.

Formula would look something like this:

Fav%*FavOdds=GV

GV-Dog%*AmtWagered=EV

EV>=16 = Play

Obviously when looking at a dog as potential play, then dog numbers would replace fav numbers.

When I post today's plays, just go back and look at everything. I'm sure you'll be able to figure out how I got the plays I post.

 

[Broncos625]

By the way Funny, great night last night! You really nailed it.:toast:

 

[Funnyb25]

Alright... i got it now.... seems like you have made a turnaround using this new theory... i hope it continues.... i look at your plays daily after i pick mine, so if we are on the same play, i will nail it larger than my other plays..... sorry about my bullshit talking a few weeks back.... i hope for the best, and lets make da money...

GL Broncs...

 

[Broncos625]

Alright... i got it now.... seems like you have made a turnaround using this new theory... i hope it continues.... i look at your plays daily after i pick mine, so if we are on the same play, i will nail it larger than my other plays..... sorry about my bullshit talking a few weeks back.... i hope for the best, and lets make da money...

GL Broncs...

No worries. BOL to you. :toast:

 

[Broncos625]

5/12 Plays:

Boston ML +120
Toronot RL +150
Cubs RL +160
Phillies RL +170
Giants RL +155

BOL!!

 

[Funnyb25]

5/12 Plays:

Boston ML +120
Toronot RL +150
Cubs RL +160
Phillies RL +170
Giants RL +155

BOL!!

now i got no clue... haha i dont think i understood the formula you posted i guess.... seems like the play would be the opposite on the bluejays play, even though i personally do like the bluejays... im tryin to figure out how i can nuderstand this as its way different than your previous method

most of the RL %'s are lower

 

[Broncos625]

now i got no clue... haha i dont think i understood the formula you posted i guess.... seems like the play would be the opposite on the bluejays play, even though i personally do like the bluejays... im tryin to figure out how i can nuderstand this as its way different than your previous method

most of the RL %'s are lower

I sent you a PM.

 

[Funnyb25]

Got it now!! Thanks

 

[Broncos625]

Just in case it hits, I wanted it posted. :lol:

For fur parlay:

All listed plays $100/$9100

 

[tommyjohn44]

Just in case it hits, I wanted it posted. :lol:

For fur parlay:

All listed plays $100/$9100

Here's to the sweep!!!! :toast:

I made the same play and added the Rangers RL (I'm a homer) to it and am looking at $20 to pay $4,052.

 

[BIGWave]

Just in case it hits, I wanted it posted. :lol:

For fur parlay:

All listed plays $100/$9100

Broncos...............isn't it warming up in Vegas????
Thought it would be a little too warm for a fur coat, but whatever.
Hope you hit your fur parlay.

GL pal.

 

[Broncos625]

Broncos...............isn't it warming up in Vegas????
Thought it would be a little too warm for a fur coat, but whatever.
Hope you hit your fur parlay.

GL pal.

Thanks for pointing that out. :lol:

I noticed it after it was too late to edit.

 

[SelectiveAscent]

Hey, haven't been on in the past 5 days or so, has the system turned itself around? I see alot of RL plays in this new formula..

Thanks Broncos

 

[v3candyman]

Thanks 625