Brainiac's MMA and boxing PLAYS

[TheBrainiac]

First two UFC plays cashed , other 4 lost , 3 of them by KO . Gonzaga loss hurts the most , rocked Carwin , got him down but couldn't do anything just to get KOed when they stood up .

UFC 96 : 2-4 - 14.82 units

Bibiano owned his opponent , never in doubt with this one . Beebe was doing pretty well but then his wrestling opponent got him down several times and with like 15 seconds to go Beebe ate a knee in the clinch which has cut him . He then quit in his chair , probably wasn't this cut tho as nobody has really checked it . They had a towel on his face whole break and then he just didnt get up for last round , most likely gassed as I haven't seen anything that would suggest the fight was stopped because of that cut . Imanari won a close decision , I thought he lost but judges gave him a lot of credit for his great ground work from his back and having Yamamoto in trouble few times . Jong Won Kim might never fight in MMA again , guy showed zero skill , surprised he lasted 10 minutes before getting dropped . Maedo won against Cole Miller's brother who looked like Struve with huge height and reach advantage out there .

DREAM 7 : 4-1 + 9.55 units

Weekend : 6-7 - 5.27 units

---------------------------------------------

Boxing RTD : 17-4 +101.9 units
MMA YTD : 77-38 + 97.8 units



Going to try different write up in the next few events with skill rating of fighters , I will try to rate them for myself by watching their previous fights so this might turn out to be not very accurate .

 

[kobefan08]

yo brainiac... thoughts on evans vs machida?

 

[TheBrainiac]

Not sure atm but I don't think I am going to bet on Machida at - 200 , Rashad might have a better chance than some people think .

Sat 3/14

03:00 PM PST

Marco Antonio Barrera vs Amir Khan

My pick is Amir Khan to win

Odds : 1.88

Where : betfair

5 units to win 4.4 units

 

[TheBrainiac]

Ok final call , added 2 more units at 1.94

Khan will never get any big fight if he doesn't win today . My take on this story is that they wouldn't get Barrera to fight Khan if they didn't feel like Khan can beat him . Barrera is 35 yo with 72 fights , got a cut in his last fight just 42 days ago . This is a no brainer for me , take home boy at those odds and he will either get KOed early by Barrera or cruise , wouldn't be surprised if it somehow got stopped on another cut , Barrera has been in way too many fights .

 

[TheBrainiac]

Sick first round

 

[ronaldn]

How about an update? Who's winning?

 

[TheBrainiac]

Ok final call , added 2 more units at 1.94

Khan will never get any big fight if he doesn't win today . My take on this story is that they wouldn't get Barrera to fight Khan if they didn't feel like Khan can beat him . Barrera is 35 yo with 72 fights , got a cut in his last fight just 42 days ago . This is a no brainer for me , take home boy at those odds and he will either get KOed early by Barrera or cruise , wouldn't be surprised if it somehow got stopped on another cut , Barrera has been in way too many fights .

Yep , headbutt clash in the first round and huge cut on Barrera's head . Amir won every round , fight was stopped in the 5th . Technical decision : 50-44 , 50-45 , 50-45 for Amir Khan . <><>

 

[ronaldn]

Thx

 

[diktsohg]

Nice hit !

Khan takes it with ease...cut was very predictable

 

[TheBrainiac]

Not enough faith in any of other unknown guys . LC showed big heart not tapping against Bao in his AFFLICTION fight , skillset is there to beat a 4-7 guy .

King Mo gets another guy thrown to him for slaughtering . Ryo Kawamura either wins by KO/decision or loses by KO . Only real threat for Lawal most likely would be getting subbed but his opponents didn't submit anybody in 14 fights . Also a decision win is out of question here because Kawamura cant cotrol a wrestler like King Mo . Lawal by KO or GNP .

Heard a lot of good stuff about Marlon Sandro , trains at Nova Uniao with guys like Jose Also . 12-0 record makes me think this guy should be solid enough to win against a rather unknown opponent .

 

[TheBrainiac]

LC can suck my cawk . Thought this guy has atleast wrestling but looks like he is a total noob .

 

[diktsohg]

LC can suck my cawk . Thought this guy has atleast wrestling but looks like he is a total noob .

Yep...pathetic performance
No idea what to do on his back at all
Nothing more aggravating then 2 out of 3 in a parlay hitting
I was with you...we'll get em next time
:toast:

 

[TheBrainiac]

But he usually doesn't fight like this , I've seen him several times . Maybe jet lag , he sure looked gassed after the first round , no excuse here but very lame performance . What makes it even worse , he was 1 out of 10 favorites that lost yesterday ...



Boxing RTD : 18-4 +108.24 units
MMA YTD : 77-39 + 91.8 units

 

[TheBrainiac]

Boxing parlay for tonight .

 

[TheBrainiac]

Boxing parlay cashed but only + 2.05 units profit .

<table><tbody><tr> <td>Item #4</td></tr> <tr> <td>Wager Type:</td> <td>Money Line</td></tr> <tr> <td>Outcome:</td> <td>Cancelled</td></tr> <tr> <td>Sport / Period:</td> <td>Boxing Fighting / Game </td></tr> <tr> <td>Line:
</td> <td>Raul Garcia 3/21/2009 8:00:01 PM - (EST)
-700</td></tr> <tr> <td>Opponent:</td> <td>Ronald Barrera </td></tr> <tr> <td>
</td> <td>* Game Notes:</td></tr> <tr> <td>
</td> <td> Fight moved from March 21, 2009 to April 11, 2009, thus no action per 5dimes rules</td></tr></tbody></table>

Boxing RTD : 19-4 +110.29 units
MMA YTD : 77-39 + 91.8 units



3/28/09

03:00 ET

K-1 & KICKBOXING - Mar 28 K-1: WORLD GP 2009 - YOKOHAMA, JAPAN - LIVE ON HDNET

REMY BONJASKY vs ALISTAIR OVEREEM

My pick is REMY BONJASKY to win

Odds : - 250 & - 260

Where : unibet & sportsbook

10.2 units to win 4 units

Remy Bonjasky
"Of course you fell pressure because it seems the whole K-1 and kickboxing world is watching this fight," joked a relaxed Bonjasky. "Alistair, as you saw when he beat Badr Hari, used his knee and left hook combination, so I have to pay attention to his knees. Although he's not a K-1 fighter, that doesn't mean he's been playing tennis -- he one's a strong guy and a good fighter in MMA, and now he's in K-1. I want to say I'm 100% sure that I'll win, but there is always a 1% chance of losing. So I'll say that I'm very confident that I'll win this fight."
"I understand that it would be disappointing for K-1 fans if an MMA fighter comes in and beats two K-1 fighters. I think Alistair has a different stance from most K-1 fighters, but I know he'll have his hands up and he'll try to beat me, so when he steps into the ring I'm just going to see him as a K-1 fighter that I have to beat. I trained hard and I'll do my very best to win on Saturday!"

Alistair Overeem
Informed of Bonjasky's "99%" prediction, Overeem smiled. "I don't think in percentages, I'll just say that I'm confident and that I'm not impressed with Remy at all. I'm not worried about his boxing, I'm more afraid of his acting -- that he will fall down and pretend to be hurt when he's not hurt!"
"But Remy is the K-1 Champion and I've always wanted to fight him, so I'm very excited and happy with this fight. After the Badr Hari fight on New Year's Eve, I promised to challenge the K-1 Champion on behalf of all DREAM and MMA fighters, and so if I win this then I'll have beaten the best K-1 fighters, and then I can go back and fight in DREAM, because MMA is my passion. Also, I want to say that I think if you let K-1 fighters into MMA rules, they would lose nine times out of ten!"


Alistair has already cost me when he fought Badr Hari but I think Remy is in another league . I am not saying Remy is much better than Badr Hari but there is a big difference in their style , Remy unlikely Badr has best defense work in K-1 business which will pay off today once Overeem starts gassing . Very important fight for Remy to represent K-1 against a MMA fighter .
I have Remy by KO ( flying knee ) in the 2nd round but he could also win 3-0 rounds .

 

[TraderMike]

Brainiac, I have a quick question: what is your standard unit play? In other words, what would be the standard amount of units you are attmepting to win? Thanks.

 

[TheBrainiac]

One unit is always $100 , most of the time I will bet to win 2.5 units and up . This one is pretty strong pick , Overeem has outside shot of getting a KO here but unlikely with his opponent never taking a lot of risks when he fights .

3/28/09

03:00 ET

K-1 & KICKBOXING - Mar 28 K-1: WORLD GP 2009 - YOKOHAMA, JAPAN - LIVE ON HDNET
Peter Aerts vs Errol Zimmerman<table class="border" id="wagerTable" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody id="betOdds"><tr class="odd" valign="middle"><tr class="odd" valign="middle"> <td class="left">
</td></tr></tr></tbody></table>
My pick is Errol Zimmerman to win

Odds : + 130

Where : sportsbook

3 units to win 3.9 units

I don't understand this line , straight value bet IMO .

Bookies really underrating Errol , guy has huge potential , not only that but he is already ready for about any guy in K-1 business .
Aerst looked slow against Badr Hari and he is not getting any younger . Aerts will have kicks advantage here and Errol has underrated boxing so it will depend if Errol can bully Aerts early and dont allow Peter Aerts to create the distance for leg kicks .

 

[TheBrainiac]

3/28/09

03:00 ET

K-1 & KICKBOXING - Mar 28 K-1: WORLD GP 2009 - YOKOHAMA, JAPAN - LIVE ON HDNET

Gokhan Saki vs Tyrone Spong

My pick is Tyrone Spong to win

Odds : + 110 & + 100

Where : betandwin & unibet

5 units to win 5.1 units

Tyrone Spong

Spong, a muay thai fighter making his K-1 debut, said "I'm happy to be here, I put on some weight, about 15kg (33lbs), I'm now 95kg (210lbs) and I don't think -- I know I'm going to win this tournament! Of course I'm faster than the other guys and have better technique, but the difference is I think I have a better game plan. I am a very complete fighter, and the combinations of my hands and feet, those are my greatest strength. Saki is a very fast and very good fighter, but, again, I have the better game plan. Of course, I can't tell you what the plans is, but come and see Saturday! In the second fight, I really don't care, but if I have to choose I think Melvin Manhoef will win, and I'll face him. I am going to win, and then come back to take both K-1 belts -- the Heavyweight and the World Grand Prix!"
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tyrone is probably the most skilled K-1 fighter out there , only problem here will be his weight . Like written above he used to fight in 30 lbs lighter division but he had a lot of time to put this muscle mass where it should be . Saki is tough fighter , his leg kicks are very good but I think everywhere else Tyrone will have an advantage over him . Lucky for Sprong Saki isn't the biggest HW out there either , actually Tyrone will have height and reach advantage here . He likes to fight in close distance due to his muay thai background and this should come handy against a fighter like Saki who needs his space for those devastating leg kicks .

Saki had his ribs broken by Remy Bonjasky in GP and Tyrone has sick knees to the body , this could be a big factor in this one . Like I've said if Sprong isn't troubled by the move to HW I believe he wins this fight .

 

[TheBrainiac]

3/28/09

03:00 ET

K-1 & KICKBOXING - Mar 28 K-1: WORLD GP 2009 - YOKOHAMA, JAPAN - LIVE ON HDNET

Ewerton Teixeira vs Jerome Le Banner

My pick is Jerome Le Banner to win

Odds : - 150

Where : sportsbook

4.5 units to win 3 units

I think Teixeira is a good match up for Jerome . Jerome's bully style could be too much for karate fighter . No doubt Teixeira is a great karate guy but I think his boxing is still limited which is not a good sign against someone like Jerome le Banner .
Jerome should close the distance right away and go for the kill with every punch , Teixeira needs his space for leg kicks to score points and Jerome is not the man that will allow it .
This would be a bigger play if not the worry about Jerome's arm injury , his fight against Remy had to be stopped because of that 3 monthes ago . Hopefully he had enough time to atleast recover a bit , this was an old injury so I hope this wont be a factor against Teixeira .
Jerome still has what it takes to knock out Ewerton I believe , he has to put pressure on him from the opening bell and dont allow Teixeira to use kicks in this fight , especially to the body because Jerome cant afford to block them with his arm .
Teixeira cant knock Jerome out , he is very unlikely to win on points because Jerome will be the one putting the pressure and scoring with his hands . If that old injury doesn't come back in this fight he should either win by KO or a wide points decision .

 

[TheBrainiac]

Junichi Sawayashiki vs Glaube Feitosa

Feitosa should be too much but he didn't impress lately and Junichi can fight . + 220 on the young japanese might be worth a look at bookmaker .

Keijiro Maeda vs Melvin Manhoef

Maeda is a young talented japanese fighter but he lacks power to really force things at the moment . His kicks are solid but I wouldn't use them against a guy like Melvin who will catch you on one of those and its lights out for you . Kejiro is 2 days replacement for Chalid Arrab and this is not a fight where I would fancy a surprise factor . Manhoef has way too much power for Kejiro Maeda , obvious Maeda will try to use hit and run strategy but I am afraid it will not pay off for him as Melvin Manhoef closes the distance and knocks him out in the first round