WEC 39 : 2-1 + 0.3 units
Didn't think Bart was so bad or maybe other guy is too talented . Anyway Bart's takedown defense blew and so did his game off his back .
Hicks vs Razor Rob really sucked but Rob won this fight if there should be a winner . Karalexis in the first without much trouble .
Boxing RTD : 17-4 +101.9 units
MMA YTD : 71-31 + 103.07 units
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WEEK PLAY # 1
Sat 3/7
09:00 PM PST
UFC 96
Keith Jardine vs Quinton Jackson
My pick is Quinton Jackson to win
Odds : - 281
Where : pinnaclesports
14.05 units to win 5 units
I don't really suggest anybody to lay all that juice . Last two heavy favs I took ( Koscheck and Bart ) lost .
The way I see this fight it will be a stand up one where Jardine is going to try leg kicking Quinton while keeping the distance on his way to a possible decision win . Will it work out ? I have almost no doubt that it will not . Jardine is too slow and Quinton can catch him , all it takes is 1 punch and Jardine will go down just like against Houston Alexander , Travis Wiuff or Wanderlei Silva . What happens if Quinton despite being the better wrestler ends up on his back ? I don't think it will be a really huge problem , he is more that unlikely to get stopped by GNP or subbed , tie Jardine up and wait for a stand up . What happens if Keith Jardine is taken down and ends up on his back ? Very little to no chance that he can get a sub off his back because Quinton can overpower him to get out . Big chance tho that Quinton can land a bomb from his guard with GNP and it's lights out for Jardine .
Key : Quinton gotta close the distance right away and pressure Jardine giving him no time for establishing his range with kicks .
Countering his leg kicks and dirty boxing Keith Jardine are both very successful ways to beat him .
Wont blame anybody who looks for value and takes Jardine to win by decision tho at + 600 , if he can really leg kick Quinton 15 minutes without being KOed or taken down props to him . To me this looks rather unlikely with power of Rampage Jackson vs chin of Keith Jardine .
Didn't think Bart was so bad or maybe other guy is too talented . Anyway Bart's takedown defense blew and so did his game off his back .
Hicks vs Razor Rob really sucked but Rob won this fight if there should be a winner . Karalexis in the first without much trouble .
Boxing RTD : 17-4 +101.9 units
MMA YTD : 71-31 + 103.07 units
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WEEK PLAY # 1
Sat 3/7
09:00 PM PST
UFC 96
Keith Jardine vs Quinton Jackson
My pick is Quinton Jackson to win
Odds : - 281
Where : pinnaclesports
14.05 units to win 5 units
I don't really suggest anybody to lay all that juice . Last two heavy favs I took ( Koscheck and Bart ) lost .
The way I see this fight it will be a stand up one where Jardine is going to try leg kicking Quinton while keeping the distance on his way to a possible decision win . Will it work out ? I have almost no doubt that it will not . Jardine is too slow and Quinton can catch him , all it takes is 1 punch and Jardine will go down just like against Houston Alexander , Travis Wiuff or Wanderlei Silva . What happens if Quinton despite being the better wrestler ends up on his back ? I don't think it will be a really huge problem , he is more that unlikely to get stopped by GNP or subbed , tie Jardine up and wait for a stand up . What happens if Keith Jardine is taken down and ends up on his back ? Very little to no chance that he can get a sub off his back because Quinton can overpower him to get out . Big chance tho that Quinton can land a bomb from his guard with GNP and it's lights out for Jardine .
Key : Quinton gotta close the distance right away and pressure Jardine giving him no time for establishing his range with kicks .
Countering his leg kicks and dirty boxing Keith Jardine are both very successful ways to beat him .
Wont blame anybody who looks for value and takes Jardine to win by decision tho at + 600 , if he can really leg kick Quinton 15 minutes without being KOed or taken down props to him . To me this looks rather unlikely with power of Rampage Jackson vs chin of Keith Jardine .
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My suggestion when to bet on this fight :
So pinnaclesports still has same line up I got some days ago but with pinnacle being non US customers friendly bookie best available line at the moment is - 310 at 5dimes for US customers .
How will this line move ?
I count on both to show up in shape so there shouldn't be a line movement after the weigh-ins .
Keith Jardine is not very popular so I assume late money will as always come on the favorite in the main event with Quinton Jackson being the more known fighter . Plus some people who don't bet on MMA will most likely try to chase their losses from other sports like 9 NBA games on Saturday and I believe most will rather decide to lay the juice than going with an underdog guy they have never heard about .
Don't think Quinton Jackson odds will go down on Saturday if anything than they will move a little bit tomorrow .
So pinnaclesports still has same line up I got some days ago but with pinnacle being non US customers friendly bookie best available line at the moment is - 310 at 5dimes for US customers .
How will this line move ?
I count on both to show up in shape so there shouldn't be a line movement after the weigh-ins .
Keith Jardine is not very popular so I assume late money will as always come on the favorite in the main event with Quinton Jackson being the more known fighter . Plus some people who don't bet on MMA will most likely try to chase their losses from other sports like 9 NBA games on Saturday and I believe most will rather decide to lay the juice than going with an underdog guy they have never heard about .
Don't think Quinton Jackson odds will go down on Saturday if anything than they will move a little bit tomorrow .
So far nothing on this fight , will have to rewatch some of their fights before making some call . First thought was Sell is gonna win but I believe it can go either way .
WEEK PLAY # 2
Sat 3/7
09:00 PM PST
UFC 96
Jim Miller vs Gray Maynard
My pick is Gray Maynard to win
Odds : - 150
Where : sportsbook
5 units to win 3.33 units
This probably can go either way but if I am not wrong Maynard should be able to score the points in that fight unless he gets subbed .
Both guys are wrestlers with the difference that Miller is also a good BJJ guy however it seems that Maynard is not so easy to get subbed . Yes , he has lost by sub to Nate Diaz on TUF but it was more because of him gassing than anything else . Diaz had like 30 sub attempts off his back but wasn't able to sink anything in .
As I've said both guys are wrestlers but Maynard is ahead in this department , there is a lot of hype around this guy . He is training with Randy Couture and has lot of solid guys to train with . His takedowns/slams are a beauty however he doesn't really work a lot from top after getting those takedowns which might lead to fighters being stood up after a while on the ground .
Jim Miller has good wrestling but to be honest I cant see him getting takedowns on Maynard . His BJJ is hyped big time however I am not all that impressed . This is just my opinion and I might get flamed for this but whatever . He hasn't fought anybody really solid like Maynard did , both guys have fought Frankie Edgar with one big difference . Frankie Edgar dominated/controlled Jim Miller to win a decision , Miller almost managed to pull off a miracle win via late sub but wasn't able to make Edgar tap . Maynard fought Frankie Edgar and controlled him like Edgar did against Jim Miller which of course doesn't mean Frankie Edgar = Jim Miller because Miller should have more skills of his back than Edgar but I have my doubt it will be enough to get a win . Maynard doesn't seem to take wild swings in his opponent's guard after taking them down and neither does he go for weak takedowns , think I've yet to see him fail on a takedown attempt . Also his takedowns look solid with him moving his head to the side not to get caught in an easy guillotine .
I see no real edge in stand up here , I might be wrong tho . To me it looks like Maynard has more power in his hands , he also covers up pretty well so I cant see Miller knocking him out .
Miller in his fight against Wiman didn't look all that sharp in stand up , almost whole fight too place on the ground but there were some seconds like in the 3rd round where it looked like Miller might get rocked by Wiman before taking him to the ground again bouncing off the cage .
Against Baron Jim Miller had his back like 10 times and wasn't able to sink the rear naked choke but eventually managed to get it in with less than 2 minutes left in the fight when Baron totally gassed .
The way I see it Jim Miller is most effective when he can get top position with his takedowns which should be a tough task against a wrestler like Gray Maynard . Jim will probably get taken down , his guard is gonna be active which might lead to him eating some of Maynard's GNP .
What happens if Maynard ends up on his back ? Now that is a very difficult question because we haven't seen a lot of that . With Maynard having better wrestling I don't see him ending up on his back more than once unless he of course gets subbed on his back or stopped by GNP before they get to their feet again and he can return the favor . If I knew for sure Maynard has better stand up than he should be bigger favorite than he is now because he can reverse his wrestling to keep this fight standing .
Whats the easiest pick here : with Maynard you most likely know whats going to happen , he can get those takedowns at will , he is a very powerful guy , doesn't risk a lot on the ground other than controlling his opponent and throwing few punches just not to get stood up . Frankie Edgar controlled Jim Miller and Maynard controlled Edgar because Maynards wrestling >>> Frankie Edgar's so Edgar's wrestling controlling Jim Miller even tho it was some years means Maynard should be able to get top positions on Jim Miller as well . Now question is how much Jim Miller's sub game has impoved after his fight with Edgar and if he can threat Maynard off his back which he wasn't able to do against Frankie Edgar 3 years ago .
We have seen how Maynard can win fights without doing much damage just by getting takedowns and LNP . Can Jim Miller do anything to stop him from getting a most likely decision win ? I think he has an outside shot to sub Maynard but like I've said several times it seems like Maynard is not all that easy to be subbed because he doesn't take huge risks and only does what he has to do to win . Jim Miller can only win this fight by a submission because even if he manages to win a round somehow but getting on top of Maynard but not subbing him , keeping Maynard 5 minutes down should be hard enough . He will most likely get taken down in other two rounds and lose a split decision . If I've overlooked some big edge in stand up this of course might go different way but I don't think Miller KOs Gray Maynard .
WEEK PLAY # 2
Sat 3/7
09:00 PM PST
UFC 96
Jim Miller vs Gray Maynard
My pick is Gray Maynard to win
Odds : - 150
Where : sportsbook
5 units to win 3.33 units
This probably can go either way but if I am not wrong Maynard should be able to score the points in that fight unless he gets subbed .
Both guys are wrestlers with the difference that Miller is also a good BJJ guy however it seems that Maynard is not so easy to get subbed . Yes , he has lost by sub to Nate Diaz on TUF but it was more because of him gassing than anything else . Diaz had like 30 sub attempts off his back but wasn't able to sink anything in .
As I've said both guys are wrestlers but Maynard is ahead in this department , there is a lot of hype around this guy . He is training with Randy Couture and has lot of solid guys to train with . His takedowns/slams are a beauty however he doesn't really work a lot from top after getting those takedowns which might lead to fighters being stood up after a while on the ground .
Jim Miller has good wrestling but to be honest I cant see him getting takedowns on Maynard . His BJJ is hyped big time however I am not all that impressed . This is just my opinion and I might get flamed for this but whatever . He hasn't fought anybody really solid like Maynard did , both guys have fought Frankie Edgar with one big difference . Frankie Edgar dominated/controlled Jim Miller to win a decision , Miller almost managed to pull off a miracle win via late sub but wasn't able to make Edgar tap . Maynard fought Frankie Edgar and controlled him like Edgar did against Jim Miller which of course doesn't mean Frankie Edgar = Jim Miller because Miller should have more skills of his back than Edgar but I have my doubt it will be enough to get a win . Maynard doesn't seem to take wild swings in his opponent's guard after taking them down and neither does he go for weak takedowns , think I've yet to see him fail on a takedown attempt . Also his takedowns look solid with him moving his head to the side not to get caught in an easy guillotine .
I see no real edge in stand up here , I might be wrong tho . To me it looks like Maynard has more power in his hands , he also covers up pretty well so I cant see Miller knocking him out .
Miller in his fight against Wiman didn't look all that sharp in stand up , almost whole fight too place on the ground but there were some seconds like in the 3rd round where it looked like Miller might get rocked by Wiman before taking him to the ground again bouncing off the cage .
Against Baron Jim Miller had his back like 10 times and wasn't able to sink the rear naked choke but eventually managed to get it in with less than 2 minutes left in the fight when Baron totally gassed .
The way I see it Jim Miller is most effective when he can get top position with his takedowns which should be a tough task against a wrestler like Gray Maynard . Jim will probably get taken down , his guard is gonna be active which might lead to him eating some of Maynard's GNP .
What happens if Maynard ends up on his back ? Now that is a very difficult question because we haven't seen a lot of that . With Maynard having better wrestling I don't see him ending up on his back more than once unless he of course gets subbed on his back or stopped by GNP before they get to their feet again and he can return the favor . If I knew for sure Maynard has better stand up than he should be bigger favorite than he is now because he can reverse his wrestling to keep this fight standing .
Whats the easiest pick here : with Maynard you most likely know whats going to happen , he can get those takedowns at will , he is a very powerful guy , doesn't risk a lot on the ground other than controlling his opponent and throwing few punches just not to get stood up . Frankie Edgar controlled Jim Miller and Maynard controlled Edgar because Maynards wrestling >>> Frankie Edgar's so Edgar's wrestling controlling Jim Miller even tho it was some years means Maynard should be able to get top positions on Jim Miller as well . Now question is how much Jim Miller's sub game has impoved after his fight with Edgar and if he can threat Maynard off his back which he wasn't able to do against Frankie Edgar 3 years ago .
We have seen how Maynard can win fights without doing much damage just by getting takedowns and LNP . Can Jim Miller do anything to stop him from getting a most likely decision win ? I think he has an outside shot to sub Maynard but like I've said several times it seems like Maynard is not all that easy to be subbed because he doesn't take huge risks and only does what he has to do to win . Jim Miller can only win this fight by a submission because even if he manages to win a round somehow but getting on top of Maynard but not subbing him , keeping Maynard 5 minutes down should be hard enough . He will most likely get taken down in other two rounds and lose a split decision . If I've overlooked some big edge in stand up this of course might go different way but I don't think Miller KOs Gray Maynard .
WEEK PLAY # 4
Sat 3/7
08:00 PM PST
UFC 96
Matt Brown vs Pete Sell
My pick is Pete Sell to win
Odds : - 140
Where : pinnaclesports
4.2 units to win 3 units
Not interested in betting on : Ryan Madigan vs Tamdan McCrory , Jason Day vs Kendall Grove , Shane Nelson vs Aaron Riley and Michael Patt vs Brandon Vera .
Still trying to decide how to bet on Gonzaga's fight and Munoz and Hamill .
Sat 3/7
08:00 PM PST
UFC 96
Matt Brown vs Pete Sell
My pick is Pete Sell to win
Odds : - 140
Where : pinnaclesports
4.2 units to win 3 units
Not interested in betting on : Ryan Madigan vs Tamdan McCrory , Jason Day vs Kendall Grove , Shane Nelson vs Aaron Riley and Michael Patt vs Brandon Vera .
Still trying to decide how to bet on Gonzaga's fight and Munoz and Hamill .
Boetsch lost by taking 1st round and then dropping the next two 28-29 decision . Should know better than betting on a guy with 3 minutes cardio , obvious he gassed once again as stated in PBP .
WEEK PLAY # 5
Sat 3/7
08:30 PM PST
UFC 96
Shane Carwin vs Gabriel Gonzaga
My pick is Gabriel Gonzaga to win
Odds : - 145
Where : pinnaclesports
5.8 units to win 4 units
Must bet some on Gonzaga at those odds , more well rounded fighter , just hope he doesnt get blasted in the first 2 minutes .
WEEK PLAY # 5
Sat 3/7
08:30 PM PST
UFC 96
Shane Carwin vs Gabriel Gonzaga
My pick is Gabriel Gonzaga to win
Odds : - 145
Where : pinnaclesports
5.8 units to win 4 units
Must bet some on Gonzaga at those odds , more well rounded fighter , just hope he doesnt get blasted in the first 2 minutes .
WEEK PLAY # 6
Sat 3/7
07:30 PM PST
UFC 96
Mark Munoz vs Matt Hamill
My pick is Mark Munoz to win
Odds : + 161
Where : pinnaclesports
3 units to win 4.83 units
Value play here , if Munoz survives the first round and has cardio he can win this by either 29-28 decision winning 2nd and 3rd round in boring fight or a late stoppage .
Sat 3/7
07:30 PM PST
UFC 96
Mark Munoz vs Matt Hamill
My pick is Mark Munoz to win
Odds : + 161
Where : pinnaclesports
3 units to win 4.83 units
Value play here , if Munoz survives the first round and has cardio he can win this by either 29-28 decision winning 2nd and 3rd round in boring fight or a late stoppage .
I think Sell has heavier hands and Brown might not punch enough to put him away which could lead to Sell bullying him around . Also Sell is supposed to have better ground game if it goes there , don't think Brown is a big threat especially if he ends up on his back but cant count on ground game fight in this one . They most likely got PPV spot for a reason which is a stand up for they are gonna show tonight . Not the most confident pick but IMO Sell has advantage everywhere but probably kicks .
