Yesterday: 1-0/YTD: 16-15, -0.5
September 14th
Tulsa/Oklahoma State under 63 (-110), 1*
Michigan -22.5 (-110), 1*
Nevada +17.5 (-110), 1*
San Jose State/Kennesaw State under 43 (-110), 1*
Indiana -3 (-110), 1*
Wyoming +10 (-110), 1*
Here are the bets I made during the week. I also added Michigan, Nevada and Wyoming. This is a classic bounce back spot for Michigan. Got embarrassed at home last week. Now they get to play an inferior team and flex their muscle. This just feels like a 38-10 game, where Michigan handles their business and moves onto USC. Had Michigan won last week, this would be a huge letdown spot. Not to mention they would probably overlook this game in preparation for USC. After what happened to Michigan last week, their focus will be on this game. Arkansas State is 2-0, but they squeaked out both those wins at home as favorites of more then a TD. Michigan’s defense will have a good day and Michigan’s offense is good enough to get in the 30’s, as they did against Fresno.
I like Wyoming, but I would only bet them at +10 or better. There are 9.5’s and 10’s in market, so make sure you shop around. I have had a very good read on Nevada so far. I bet them week zero against SMU as massive dogs and they almost won outright. They upset Troy as 7.5 point dogs in week one. Due to those two results, the Nevada/Georgia Southern game was hovering around a pick or a one point spread, which seemed like a good time to fade Nevada. While Nevada played well, Georgia Southern got the W and I cashed that moneyline bet. Now they are back to being huge dogs against a Minnesota team that I think could be in store for a long season. They only scored 17 points at home in a week one loss to UNC. Charlotte was able to score 20 against UNC the following week. Nevada’s defense is the strength of their team and I believe they are capable of hanging around in this game. This is also a lower total game, which makes getting 17.5 points even more enticing. Minnesota took some money early in the week and now this line has held at 17/17.5. I think people see a Big Ten school against a Nevada team who was bad last year and think Minnesota is going to run it down their throat and keep them off the scoreboard. That could happen, but that’s not the feeling I get from watching both teams play. There are several books that have 17.5 right now. If you can only get +17, I would still bet that number.
There are a couple other games I might add to my card tomorrow. If South Carolina was still +7, I would bet them. At +6, it’s probably a pass. Alabama/Wisconsin under is interesting if I can get 49. Buffalo over would be a bet if the total gets to 45 or less. Florida +4 could certainly be a bet I add tomorrow. They are desperate to get a big win, particularly at home after Miami rolled them in week one. I am not a fan of A&M’s quarterback, but I can’t deny they are overall the more talented team. Ole Miss over is hard to ignore as well with how they have been scoring. I will update in the morning. GL