Here's how I see it PhillyStar,
WHO the Broncos have played, isn't as important as HOW they've played against them.
If you believe there is a strong correlation between the two ways of thinking, then perhaps grading their performance on the basis of the competition they've faced would serve us best...Even on that account though, you must admit, they've impressed
Heading into the season we had a fixed idea in our minds of what each team was...Now it's up to the 32 teams, to prove our convictions right or wrong...The trick is for us to adapt along the way..Broncos and Cowboys are two teams that have proved people wrong so far, just on opposite ends of the spectrum...
With last year in mind, the Cowboys "should be" one of the best teams in the NFC..
With a tumultuous offseason in mind, the Broncos "should be" one of the worst teams in the NFL..
However, That's not the case for either team so far this season...
Wise man once said, when betting sports, don't bet what "should be", Bet what "IS".
Up 2 now, Dallas' performance on the field, has not earned them the right to be graded as a road fav against a 3-0 team that has been playing well, imo...
Conversely, the Broncos' performance on the field, has not been such that could justify them being graded as a home dog against a team that has played poorly so far this year...
Regardless of who wins this game...Wrong team is favored, imo, for these reasons...
Appreciate your opinion, but respectfully disagree...With that being said
I wish you the best this weekend! :toast:
These are the last remaining teams in the NFL, who have yet to cover a spread (0-3) to date...
Washington (0-2-1)
Pittsburgh
Carolina
Cleveland
Kansas City
Miami
Tampa Bay
Carolina is on a bye, Pittsburgh and Washington the only favorites, and the rest are all dogs this week...
Washington (0-2-1)
Pittsburgh
Carolina
Cleveland
Kansas City
Miami
Tampa Bay
Carolina is on a bye, Pittsburgh and Washington the only favorites, and the rest are all dogs this week...
*$2,000* Denver Broncos (+3) over Dallas Cowboys (-110)
Took the Broncos last week and won easily, no reason to jump off this team now. Denver has put together an impressive stretch of games to begin the season, putting them atop of the AFC West with a perfect 3-0 record. Their Run Defense has been especially impressive early on, holding opponents to 78yds/game and a stingy 3yds/carry. Does not bode well for a Cowboys team that will be missing their #1 & #2 running backs, who will be sidelined due to injury in this one. I expect Dallas’ running game to struggle here, forcing them to become a 1-dimensional passing team. Not a bad thing for us, considering Romo’s tendency to turn the ball over. Where Romo is turnover prone, Orton is mistake free, as he is yet to throw an INT this season. As a team, the Broncos rank 2nd in the league in TO differential at a +6 compared to Dallas who is negative in this department. Big edge for the Broncos in the all important category of TurnOvers. Denver’s running game has also been effective, with Buckhalter and Moreno leading the charge to produce 158.7 RushYds/game. That with the game managing arm of Orton provides their offense with a very balanced attack, imo. Does not bode well for a Dallas defense that has struggled to this point, surrendering nearly 400 yds of offense to their opponents, and 110+ rushyds/game to opposing running backs. Add in a short week of preparation for a dome team traveling to play in altitude and all signs point to Broncos victory in this one. Skeptics will argue strength of schedule, but the fact is Cowboys have also played a relatively weak schedule to this point. Only difference is, Broncos have dominated their week opponents, while the Cowboys have struggled. No reason why a struggling dome team should be laying points on the road to a 3-0 team playing very good football at the moment. I see a 21-17 Broncos victory. Give me the points.
*$2,500* Cincinnati Bengals (–5.5) over Cleveland Browns (-110)
This will be my biggest play of the week. Takes a lot for me to lay these kind of points on the road, but this game has blowout written all over it. Cleveland in the midst of what’s shaping up to be another disastrous season for them. They have scored 1 offensive TD in their last 9 games, and that was in garbage time to the Vikes. They are switching QB’s from one struggling signal caller to another. They are ranked dead last in the league in Turnover differential at –7. Their offense is not the only unit struggling for them as their defense is giving up nearly twice the yardage that the Cleveland offense is averaging. Players already beginning to turn on head coach Eric Mangini. They are 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS. This team is in total disarray from management down, and looks to be a 2-3 win team this year, tops. Facing off against their in-state rivals who are coming off a huge win against the defending champs figures to make matter worst for the Browns. Bengals are coming off a come from behind win against the Steelers, and are steaming with confidence. RB Cedric Benson is running the ball well for them, and figures to have a big game against a Cleveland Defense giving up 185 yards on the ground (bottom 3 Run D in NFL), and 31.7 points per game (dead last in NFL). Cincinnati’s defense is also playing well and facing off against a Browns offense, that like we said, has scored just once on offense, in their L9 games, figures to make for an easy day on defense for the Cincinnati Bengals. I can’t see the Browns hanging in this one against Palmer and co. and I like the Bengals in a rout here. I’ll lay the points, and let the Browns do the rest.
*$1,500* Baltimore Ravens (+2) over New England Patriots (-110)
Wrong team favored here, imo. This is not the same Patriots team that went undefeated in 07. They have lost key players on defense, and offensively are battling injuries and are dealing with a QB rebounding off surgery. Pats will find their way, but it will take some time before they do. Patriots defense, has looked shaky, to say the least. Facing off against a Ravens team that has been moving the ball at will spells trouble for them, imo. Flacco has been exceptional of late, and that running game is clicking on all cylinders. O-line of Ravens is very physical and I expect them to handle the defensive front of NE, which struggles against physical teams (think back to Jets game). Ravens should have no problem moving the ball against a vulnerable NE defense, which is without LB Mayo, and missing key players from their 08 roster. Their offense also looks out of sync. Already this year, they have a game under their belt where they did not score an offensive touchdown. Disturbing for a team that broke nearly every offensive record in 07. They are reverting back to the running game as a result (39 attempts in their last game), to allow Brady time to get re-acclimated and bring some balance back to what has become a predictable offense. While I believe that move will be good for their offense in the long run, this week’s matchup against the Ravens is a different story. Ravens Run D is as stingy as it gets, they are surrendering a league leading 51yds/game on the ground, and an even stingier 2.5 yds/carry. Cannot see the Patriots running the ball with any success against the physical front 7 of Baltimore, which boasts a number of pro bowl caliber players. Ravens also very aggressive defensively, as they dial up the blitz early and often, and against the finesse O-line of New England, I expect them to pressure Brady throughout, who will have to throw often and be near perfect for the Pats to get the win here. Brady is best when he’s undisturbed in the pocket, as is the case with most QB’s in the league, but this Baltimore defense makes a living on making life difficult for opposing signal callers. Last time NE faced off against Baltimore, (and this was in their offensive prime as 19.5 pt favorite), Baltimore limited Brady to a 47.3 completion percentage and gave up only 236 yards on 38 attempts. Chalk some off that up to bad weather conditions, but the pressure was undeniable. Bottom line is Baltimore is the more physical team on both sides of the ball, and offensively they will be too much for the Patriots defense to handle. Their defense should play their part, in limiting Brady and shutting down the Pats running game. Pats are 4-11 ATS in their L15 home games, and Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their L5 as a dog, and 13-3 ATS following a SU win. They are also 22-8 ATS in L30 after scoring 30+ points in previous game. I like the live dog SU here.
*$1,500* Tennessee Titans (–3) over Jacksonville Jaguars (-110)
Titans come into this one 0-3, but have fought hard in all their losses, ball just not bouncing their way at the moment. Had it not been for their 2 fumbles on Special teams last week, they would have probably taken that game away from the Jets in New York who they out-gained in yardage. Now you have a desperate team looking to right the ship and avoid an 0-4 start to the season, against a Jaguars team that has had the luxury of playing against very soft defenses to this point (IND, AZ, HOU). Jacksonville, has feasted on the ground as a result, and set up Garrard with the play action, and still only managed to pick up 1 win in their L3. This matchup will be an altogether different experience from their previous games, as the Titans defense ranks 2nd in rush yds allowed, at 60 yd/game, and leads the league in yards per carry allowed, at a stingy 2.2/carry. Tennessee is also a much more physical opponent than Jacksonville’s previous 3. Jacksonville will have to rely on the back of their defense, to pick up the win here, but I’m not convinced that they can stop the rushing attack of Tennessee, which is averaging 151 yds/game. Jacksonville’s secondary is also suspect, as they rank dead last in the league, surrendering a league worst 281 pass yds/game to opponents. I think Tennessee takes care of the ball a bit better in this one, and picks up the much needed win. Titans are 5-1 ATS after surrendering less than 250 yards on defense in their previous game. I’ll back the more desperate team here, who happens to be the better football team, imo.
*$2,000* San Francisco 49ers (–2.5) (B+7) over St. Louis Rams, Houston Texans (-2) (B+7) over Oakland Raiders (-130)
I like San Fran to win SU here, coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Vikes. Rams are a perfect matchup to help this team bounceback. Gore's absence shouldn't stop the 49ers from winning this game at home, as Coffee has shown he's more than capable of picking up the slack. 49ers defense should hold this Rams offense to 10 pts or less, imo. Teasing them down to what is virtually a pick.
I like the Texans SU here against the anemic offense of the Raiders. Jamarcus Russel has no place in this league, and the Raiders will remain 1-dimensional as long as he is at the helm. As bad as Houston's defense is, I can't see the Raiders putting up enough points to keep up with Texans offense in this one. Teasing them down to what is virtually a pick.
BOL :toast:
Took the Broncos last week and won easily, no reason to jump off this team now. Denver has put together an impressive stretch of games to begin the season, putting them atop of the AFC West with a perfect 3-0 record. Their Run Defense has been especially impressive early on, holding opponents to 78yds/game and a stingy 3yds/carry. Does not bode well for a Cowboys team that will be missing their #1 & #2 running backs, who will be sidelined due to injury in this one. I expect Dallas’ running game to struggle here, forcing them to become a 1-dimensional passing team. Not a bad thing for us, considering Romo’s tendency to turn the ball over. Where Romo is turnover prone, Orton is mistake free, as he is yet to throw an INT this season. As a team, the Broncos rank 2nd in the league in TO differential at a +6 compared to Dallas who is negative in this department. Big edge for the Broncos in the all important category of TurnOvers. Denver’s running game has also been effective, with Buckhalter and Moreno leading the charge to produce 158.7 RushYds/game. That with the game managing arm of Orton provides their offense with a very balanced attack, imo. Does not bode well for a Dallas defense that has struggled to this point, surrendering nearly 400 yds of offense to their opponents, and 110+ rushyds/game to opposing running backs. Add in a short week of preparation for a dome team traveling to play in altitude and all signs point to Broncos victory in this one. Skeptics will argue strength of schedule, but the fact is Cowboys have also played a relatively weak schedule to this point. Only difference is, Broncos have dominated their week opponents, while the Cowboys have struggled. No reason why a struggling dome team should be laying points on the road to a 3-0 team playing very good football at the moment. I see a 21-17 Broncos victory. Give me the points.
*$2,500* Cincinnati Bengals (–5.5) over Cleveland Browns (-110)
This will be my biggest play of the week. Takes a lot for me to lay these kind of points on the road, but this game has blowout written all over it. Cleveland in the midst of what’s shaping up to be another disastrous season for them. They have scored 1 offensive TD in their last 9 games, and that was in garbage time to the Vikes. They are switching QB’s from one struggling signal caller to another. They are ranked dead last in the league in Turnover differential at –7. Their offense is not the only unit struggling for them as their defense is giving up nearly twice the yardage that the Cleveland offense is averaging. Players already beginning to turn on head coach Eric Mangini. They are 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS. This team is in total disarray from management down, and looks to be a 2-3 win team this year, tops. Facing off against their in-state rivals who are coming off a huge win against the defending champs figures to make matter worst for the Browns. Bengals are coming off a come from behind win against the Steelers, and are steaming with confidence. RB Cedric Benson is running the ball well for them, and figures to have a big game against a Cleveland Defense giving up 185 yards on the ground (bottom 3 Run D in NFL), and 31.7 points per game (dead last in NFL). Cincinnati’s defense is also playing well and facing off against a Browns offense, that like we said, has scored just once on offense, in their L9 games, figures to make for an easy day on defense for the Cincinnati Bengals. I can’t see the Browns hanging in this one against Palmer and co. and I like the Bengals in a rout here. I’ll lay the points, and let the Browns do the rest.
*$1,500* Baltimore Ravens (+2) over New England Patriots (-110)
Wrong team favored here, imo. This is not the same Patriots team that went undefeated in 07. They have lost key players on defense, and offensively are battling injuries and are dealing with a QB rebounding off surgery. Pats will find their way, but it will take some time before they do. Patriots defense, has looked shaky, to say the least. Facing off against a Ravens team that has been moving the ball at will spells trouble for them, imo. Flacco has been exceptional of late, and that running game is clicking on all cylinders. O-line of Ravens is very physical and I expect them to handle the defensive front of NE, which struggles against physical teams (think back to Jets game). Ravens should have no problem moving the ball against a vulnerable NE defense, which is without LB Mayo, and missing key players from their 08 roster. Their offense also looks out of sync. Already this year, they have a game under their belt where they did not score an offensive touchdown. Disturbing for a team that broke nearly every offensive record in 07. They are reverting back to the running game as a result (39 attempts in their last game), to allow Brady time to get re-acclimated and bring some balance back to what has become a predictable offense. While I believe that move will be good for their offense in the long run, this week’s matchup against the Ravens is a different story. Ravens Run D is as stingy as it gets, they are surrendering a league leading 51yds/game on the ground, and an even stingier 2.5 yds/carry. Cannot see the Patriots running the ball with any success against the physical front 7 of Baltimore, which boasts a number of pro bowl caliber players. Ravens also very aggressive defensively, as they dial up the blitz early and often, and against the finesse O-line of New England, I expect them to pressure Brady throughout, who will have to throw often and be near perfect for the Pats to get the win here. Brady is best when he’s undisturbed in the pocket, as is the case with most QB’s in the league, but this Baltimore defense makes a living on making life difficult for opposing signal callers. Last time NE faced off against Baltimore, (and this was in their offensive prime as 19.5 pt favorite), Baltimore limited Brady to a 47.3 completion percentage and gave up only 236 yards on 38 attempts. Chalk some off that up to bad weather conditions, but the pressure was undeniable. Bottom line is Baltimore is the more physical team on both sides of the ball, and offensively they will be too much for the Patriots defense to handle. Their defense should play their part, in limiting Brady and shutting down the Pats running game. Pats are 4-11 ATS in their L15 home games, and Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their L5 as a dog, and 13-3 ATS following a SU win. They are also 22-8 ATS in L30 after scoring 30+ points in previous game. I like the live dog SU here.
*$1,500* Tennessee Titans (–3) over Jacksonville Jaguars (-110)
Titans come into this one 0-3, but have fought hard in all their losses, ball just not bouncing their way at the moment. Had it not been for their 2 fumbles on Special teams last week, they would have probably taken that game away from the Jets in New York who they out-gained in yardage. Now you have a desperate team looking to right the ship and avoid an 0-4 start to the season, against a Jaguars team that has had the luxury of playing against very soft defenses to this point (IND, AZ, HOU). Jacksonville, has feasted on the ground as a result, and set up Garrard with the play action, and still only managed to pick up 1 win in their L3. This matchup will be an altogether different experience from their previous games, as the Titans defense ranks 2nd in rush yds allowed, at 60 yd/game, and leads the league in yards per carry allowed, at a stingy 2.2/carry. Tennessee is also a much more physical opponent than Jacksonville’s previous 3. Jacksonville will have to rely on the back of their defense, to pick up the win here, but I’m not convinced that they can stop the rushing attack of Tennessee, which is averaging 151 yds/game. Jacksonville’s secondary is also suspect, as they rank dead last in the league, surrendering a league worst 281 pass yds/game to opponents. I think Tennessee takes care of the ball a bit better in this one, and picks up the much needed win. Titans are 5-1 ATS after surrendering less than 250 yards on defense in their previous game. I’ll back the more desperate team here, who happens to be the better football team, imo.
*$2,000* San Francisco 49ers (–2.5) (B+7) over St. Louis Rams, Houston Texans (-2) (B+7) over Oakland Raiders (-130)
I like San Fran to win SU here, coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Vikes. Rams are a perfect matchup to help this team bounceback. Gore's absence shouldn't stop the 49ers from winning this game at home, as Coffee has shown he's more than capable of picking up the slack. 49ers defense should hold this Rams offense to 10 pts or less, imo. Teasing them down to what is virtually a pick.
I like the Texans SU here against the anemic offense of the Raiders. Jamarcus Russel has no place in this league, and the Raiders will remain 1-dimensional as long as he is at the helm. As bad as Houston's defense is, I can't see the Raiders putting up enough points to keep up with Texans offense in this one. Teasing them down to what is virtually a pick.
BOL :toast:
Spread is actually moving in Baltimore's favor, the game opened at +3
...
That's exactly why I'm concerned. I have to check on the stat but it seems like whenever everyone is on the Dog and moved the line in favor of Dog.... Favor usually wins that game. Just my past experience but I have to check on that. But GL on your play.
Personally, I'm a firm believer that Vegas moves lines with the sole purpose of balancing the money on each side, the best they can...this particular game is nightmare for books, imo, as both the public and big money players are on the same side...
I would love to hear your side, however :toast:
amazing i must say
i love ALL your picks again this week except im a little leary on cinncinati it just seems to dam easy but every nfl season their are a few games like this that are just that easy ! good luck buddy and i will be on all of them , great minds think alike
Nothing is ever easy in this business, and I'm sure your experience can attest to that...
But the play is solid, imo d1g1t
Gut tells me this is the last time we see a single possession spread in a Browns game
