***Betting Football 2009-2010***

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Some people, were born to win.
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This week and next, should be very telling in terms of who is real deal and who is not. We have had a few surprises so far this year, Patriots, Broncos, Titans, San Fran, and the Jets. This week wins and loses, will help us gauge if teams like Cincinnati can fit the criteria of a surprise team should they pick up the win against the Steelers, and vice versa for Steelers should they lose to Cinci. Washington should they lose to Detroit, etc. Trouble is putting stock into what you've seen on the field thus far, based on only 2 weeks of play. We must allow some time, before we start to truly believe what we see on the field. This week and the next will be very telling, and for us bettors it would be best to keep an open mind. At this point in the season our #1 priority should be absorbing info, don't be too distracted by the final scoreboard in the NFL, scratch the surface, ask yourself: who is outgaining who in terms of yardage? what teams are picking up 1st downs with regularity? what teams appear to be turnover prone? whose defense looks consistent, and in what facet? etc. Keep an organized tally of stats. Sometimes those stats don't show up on scoreboard, and it's our responsibility to have this information handy. The wins and loses from the previous week can be elusive, but the stats don't lie! They are a cappers best friend. Earlier this week I posted some info on certain stats that best correlate to wins, keep an eye out for how teams are performing in these categories, and many more. It will add to your profits between weeks 5-11, take my word for it. While others will bet based on what stuck out to them the week before, you will have a more well rounded idea of what's really going on behind the scenes and behind the scoreboard. Currently, I am working on maintaining and updating over 100 categories of stats that will help me cap my games with more efficiency. Most of the stats are more or less meaningless until sufficient time has passed and enough games have been played, I tend to wait till about week 5 before whole heartedly committing to these stats as a part of the capping process. But when the time comes I will be ready, win or lose, I will have the tools to make the best decisions possible. Will you? I sure hope so, too many people contribute to casino profits these days. We must stay sharp and remain on our toes, oddsmakers do the same to maximize their establishment's profits. We must do the same if we hope to be successful and beat them at their own game! Remember we are playing on their turf, so we need as much of an advantage as we can get. Stay sharp and remain vigilant, with eyes peeled back like potatoes. The real test lies ahead. Be ready for it :103631605

BOL as always :toast:
 

Some people, were born to win.
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Den/Oak total nearing key number of 37...would love a piece of it, if and when it gets all the way up there...books starting to move line in direction of over, just jumped the hook to 36.5...this half point will make my decision of whether or not to take, so Im hoping it get's there...Go get'em JOE! Pound that over! <><>
 

Some people, were born to win.
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These are the teams to start this season 0-2...note that the teams italicized won their division last year...

Detroit Lions, Tampa Bay Bucs, Carolina Panthers, St. Louis Rams, Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars and Kansas City Chiefs.

Who, if any, win this week and avoid an 0-3 start to their season? Any opinions?
 

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I think the titans have the best chance to win the next game. They looked good against the tough D of the steelers and should be able to do something against the Jets considering they have a great coach and this is a bit of a revenge game (Jets beat them in Tenn and Rex Ryans D stopped their playoff run). All the others, I think, will be 0-3 (not jumping on the lions quite yet.) The dolphins could make it happen to. Like them this week.
 

Some people, were born to win.
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I think the titans have the best chance to win the next game. They looked good against the tough D of the steelers and should be able to do something against the Jets considering they have a great coach and this is a bit of a revenge game (Jets beat them in Tenn and Rex Ryans D stopped their playoff run). All the others, I think, will be 0-3 (not jumping on the lions quite yet.) The dolphins could make it happen to. Like them this week.

Glad we are thinking along the same lines for Titans. BOL to you in the upcoming week :toast:
 

Some people, were born to win.
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*$1,250* Tennessee Titans (+3) over New York Jets (-130)

Titans facing a border line must win situation to avoid 0-3 start, the points make them a desperate underdog to play on, imo. Coming off b2b games where they lost by a field goal, and the potential winless start on the horizon, I expect them to play balls out here. New york Jets have faced two soft run defenses thus far against Texans and Pats. They were the more physical team in both previous matchups, running the rock at will, while racking up 300+ yards in 2 games. But where Jets' previous opponents were weak, the Titans excel. Tennessee is giving up a stingy 49.5 RushYds/game, and allowing only a 1.9 RushYd average, per play. (last year their defense ranked #6 against the run). Bad news for a Jets team that has dialed up 73 running plays, compared to only 53 pass plays so far. The simple "run the ball down their throats approach" won't work this time out for the Jets, not against this Run D. They will have to play a different style of game to win, and will have to rely on Sanchez's arm to win this one for them. I expect Tenn to blitz and blitz often and fluster the rookie. Also, their secondary will be looking to bounce back after a poor performance against Texans, and they have personnel to do it. This Defense gave up less than 200 yds per game last season and ranked top 10 against the pass. Fading the rookie, and backing the run stopping desperate underdog that is the Titans this week. Titans are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as road dog. My money's with them.


Good Luck :103631605
 

Some people, were born to win.
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Finally got the key number I was looking for..writeup to follow later in the week...

*$1,250* Denver Broncos/Oakland Raiders Under 37 (-110)
 

We see the light
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This week and next, should be very telling in terms of who is real deal and who is not. We have had a few surprises so far this year, Patriots, Broncos, Titans, San Fran, and the Jets. This week wins and loses, will help us gauge if teams like Cincinnati can fit the criteria of a surprise team should they pick up the win against the Steelers, and vice versa for Steelers should they lose to Cinci. Washington should they lose to Detroit, etc. Trouble is putting stock into what you've seen on the field thus far, based on only 2 weeks of play. We must allow some time, before we start to truly believe what we see on the field. This week and the next will be very telling, and for us bettors it would be best to keep an open mind. At this point in the season our #1 priority should be absorbing info, don't be too distracted by the final scoreboard in the NFL, scratch the surface, ask yourself: who is outgaining who in terms of yardage? what teams are picking up 1st downs with regularity? what teams appear to be turnover prone? whose defense looks consistent, and in what facet? etc. Keep an organized tally of stats. Sometimes those stats don't show up on scoreboard, and it's our responsibility to have this information handy. The wins and loses from the previous week can be elusive, but the stats don't lie! They are a cappers best friend. Earlier this week I posted some info on certain stats that best correlate to wins, keep an eye out for how teams are performing in these categories, and many more. It will add to your profits between weeks 5-11, take my word for it. While others will bet based on what stuck out to them the week before, you will have a more well rounded idea of what's really going on behind the scenes and behind the scoreboard. Currently, I am working on maintaining and updating over 100 categories of stats that will help me cap my games with more efficiency. Most of the stats are more or less meaningless until sufficient time has passed and enough games have been played, I tend to wait till about week 5 before whole heartedly committing to these stats as a part of the capping process. But when the time comes I will be ready, win or lose, I will have the tools to make the best decisions possible. Will you? I sure hope so, too many people contribute to casino profits these days. We must stay sharp and remain on our toes, oddsmakers do the same to maximize their establishment's profits. We must do the same if we hope to be successful and beat them at their own game! Remember we are playing on their turf, so we need as much of an advantage as we can get. Stay sharp and remain vigilant, with eyes peeled back like potatoes. The real test lies ahead. Be ready for it :103631605

BOL as always :toast:


Well put. This forum needs more like these to cap games and less other bs. Thanks for sharing.
 

Some people, were born to win.
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*$1,000* Cincinnati Bengals (+4) over Pittsburgh Steelers (-110)
 

Some people, were born to win.
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Well put. This forum needs more like these to cap games and less other bs. Thanks for sharing.

My pleasure PeePee....glad to help anyway that I can....

Just wish more posters would chime in more often with words of encouragement, opinions, concerns, or criticisms...

Would make it alot funner for me, to have a more lively thread.

Either way though, BOL to you this upcoming weekend :103631605
 

MY HEART IS A HOME AND FEAR DONT LIVE HERE
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hey numberz if you could give 13 points to any four teams this weekend and would be shocked if they didnt cover who would they be.
 

Some people, were born to win.
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*$1,250* Denver Broncos/Oakland Raiders Under 37 (-110)

Number came and went quick in this one. It always does when dealing with key numbers! Broncos shut out Bengals offense for 59+ minutes in week 1, which is more impressive when considering Bengals followed that up by scoring 31 pts on the road against Green Bay, in week 2. Last week they took care of Browns, holding them to 215 TOTAL yards on offense, and surrendering only 2 field goals all game, while shutting them out for the last 3 quarters of the game. The defense is playing well, and a matchup against the anemic, Jamarcus Russel led, Raiders offense, figures to keep them playing well. Raiders coming off a game where they managed a measly 176 TOTAL yards of offense, against a below average defense in Kansas City. They are led by the arm of Jamarcus Russel, who is not an NFL quarterback, imo. Neither team has big play potential, as both employ a game managing/keep the clock moving philosophy on offense. Both figure to be Under teams this season, and both are 2-0 in favor of the Under so far. I see a low scoring game here, where the battle of field position, and time of possession prove key for both teams. 21-10 Broncos. I'll take the Under here, as I feel this total is a shade too high.
 

Some people, were born to win.
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hey numberz if you could give 13 points to any four teams this weekend and would be shocked if they didnt cover who would they be.

I'm assuming that ties push here.....in no particular order of confidence, I would go with....

Tennessee +16
Baltimore PK
New England +9

and Cincinnati +17 or Lions +20 as 4th leg...


I'd be shocked if these teams didn't cover these spreads...

What are your leans so far? Any of these?
 

Pourin Up
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I'm with you on most of the picks. I think Detroit finally gets the win so I'm going with a small bet on the ML but I'll take the +6.5 also. The Skins have a horrible offense, I actually watched the game last week and it was painful.

That Denver under might be a good one also. Saw the 2nd half of the game last week and the D was looking good.

Let's cash some winners.
 

Some people, were born to win.
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I'm with you on most of the picks. I think Detroit finally gets the win so I'm going with a small bet on the ML but I'll take the +6.5 also. The Skins have a horrible offense, I actually watched the game last week and it was painful.

That Denver under might be a good one also. Saw the 2nd half of the game last week and the D was looking good.

Let's cash some winners.

Have to be honest, Detroit is a pick that I normally don't make...

But you gotta go with your gut sometimes :103631605

Like you said Washington offense is miserable, and Detroit looks to be playing the run pretty well, which should make matters even more difficult for Redskins offense, also they are out a starting offensive lineman in this one...Winning by such a small margin to the pathetic Rams at home, has alarms sounding in Washington, and rightfully so. This team looks like like it could be in big trouble. Glancing at their schedule this season, the Redskins may be in for a miserable year, if they don't turn it around very soon!

Glad we are thinking along the same lines in some of these games, GL to you this weekend :103631605

And like you said, let's cash some winners :toast:
 

MY HEART IS A HOME AND FEAR DONT LIVE HERE
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yeah all three but i like to bunch the early games with each other then the late games. i do like balty pats and tenn so i will use detroit. thanks for the response man. for the late games i like buffalo cincy dallas and not sure for the 4th yet. i can also use totals. for some reason the clev game scares me but ravens shouldnt lose at home and clev has looked bad. i can also use totals
 

We see the light
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That Denver under might be a good one also. Saw the 2nd half of the game last week and the D was looking good.

Let's cash some winners.


I would not recommend playing under of game total in teaser, any teaser for that matter 6/7/10/13 pts. Crazy things can happen in a game and push the total out of whack... TO, KO/Punt returns, blocks, INTs all lead to touchdowns that unaccounted for. Those are the points that we can not foresee when capping a game. How many times have we seen a total is around 30+/40+ and ended up in the 70's and kill even the 13 pt teaser.
 

Some people, were born to win.
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*$1,500* Denver Broncos (-1.5) over Oakland Raiders (-110)
 

Some people, were born to win.
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yeah all three but i like to bunch the early games with each other then the late games. i do like balty pats and tenn so i will use detroit. thanks for the response man. for the late games i like buffalo cincy dallas and not sure for the 4th yet. i can also use totals. for some reason the clev game scares me but ravens shouldnt lose at home and clev has looked bad. i can also use totals

Doubt Baltimore loses SU...as far as totals I'd tease the following in no particular order of confidence...

Colts/Zona over 35.5
Denver/Oakland Under 50
Bills/Saints Over 38
Giants/Bucs over 32
NE/ATL over 34
Skins/Lions Under 52

GL once again, and careful with the teasers, they can be tricky :103631605
 

Some people, were born to win.
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I would not recommend playing under of game total in teaser, any teaser for that matter 6/7/10/13 pts. Crazy things can happen in a game and push the total out of whack... TO, KO/Punt returns, blocks, INTs all lead to touchdowns that unaccounted for. Those are the points that we can not foresee when capping a game. How many times have we seen a total is around 30+/40+ and ended up in the 70's and kill even the 13 pt teaser.

I think he's talking about an unteased wager here PeePee....

I have a bet riding on the Under in Oakland at 37...

As far as teasers are concerned, they are always a risky proposition...

That's why they call em teasers :103631605

With that said, I've seen people have success with them....

To each their own I guess (<)<
 

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