I don't understand why everyone thinks this. There is almost no way Kamara get over 250 touches this year if Ingham is still involed and Barkley likely sees 350 touches plus. Besides that the chances that Kamara scores at the rate he did last year is almost impossible. He scored a TD basically once every 15 times he touched the ball last year. By contrast over the course of Le'Veon Bell's career he has scored 1 TD roughly every 37 times he touches the ball. Do people really believe that he is going to keep scoring TD's at that pace? Either he has to get way more touches or its almost certain he will score less TD's this year imo.
I just saw this post a few days ago when Cruise was bumping threads. I didn't see it when you posted it and I didn't really wanna reply then with Kamara off a monster game since it would look results oriented. But the Kamara regression thing got very overrated. He only played 12 games last year in a regular role, and even his role last year wasn't close to what it is this year. He played more and more down the stretch last year, increased red zone work. He's just simply too good to be on the sidelines that long.
When people say regression to the mean, they need to realize the mean is of that particular player, not some overall mean. So if he scored 12 TD's last year, what do you think his TD equity is this year? It's probably in the 10-12 range again. The Saints D isn't going to be as good as last year and they likely won't run the ball as well so they're going to be in more shootout games. And again, he has an extra 4 games with a big role + 4 games without Ingram.
Another thing with Kamara and other pass catching RB's is they're just more durable, catching a pass in the flat and juking 1 LB then getting tackled is just a lot easier way to make a living than running into a brick wall over and over again.
I think Barkley's upside is higher than Kamara's but like I said in the post, the mistake people make sometimes is they try to win the league in rd 1 when you just need to make the best pick.
Let's say he has TD regression to 9-10ish but still plays all 16 games...What's his line? 105-1800-10? That's as good of a year as anyone unless someone just goes nuts like Todd Gurley last year.
And he could be reasonably handcuffed with Ingram.