Joe, the party is over.
Not sure how else to post it to get point across.
The real estate equity sham, money printing, and carry trade are what fueled alot of this bullshit economy the past 7-10 years.
Simply put, real estate is a depreciating asset and these 20% y-o-y returns now have to return to the mean.
The hens have now come home to roost.
Hitman, I politely disagree. The past year the rise in market was based on the earnings we just heard the past month.
Now the market is starting to discount decreased earnings based on real estate crashing and lower consumer spending.
After tanking 1000 points in less than 10 days, its not going to rise back to new highs.
Plenty of hedge funds will be bankrupt and that will only further the downward selling. Too many people think hedge funds are directed by geniuses. They made money doing the same things and they will also lose money doing the same things.
Not sure how else to post it to get point across.
The real estate equity sham, money printing, and carry trade are what fueled alot of this bullshit economy the past 7-10 years.
Simply put, real estate is a depreciating asset and these 20% y-o-y returns now have to return to the mean.
The hens have now come home to roost.
Hitman, I politely disagree. The past year the rise in market was based on the earnings we just heard the past month.
Now the market is starting to discount decreased earnings based on real estate crashing and lower consumer spending.
After tanking 1000 points in less than 10 days, its not going to rise back to new highs.
Plenty of hedge funds will be bankrupt and that will only further the downward selling. Too many people think hedge funds are directed by geniuses. They made money doing the same things and they will also lose money doing the same things.
Anyone with an account at E-trade should get their money out today, close their account, put some of that cash in your pocket, and move the rest to another brokerage account.
They have 30 billion in mortgages and the stock is cratering again today.
Better safe than sorry in this environment.
Stay tuned.
:howdy:
They have 30 billion in mortgages and the stock is cratering again today.
Better safe than sorry in this environment.
Stay tuned.
:howdy:
Woofy:
Do you feel that a new all time high will be made in the DOW within 2 years from this date? Do you feel this is the start of a major bear market that will not see new highs for at least 5 years (typical in Bear Markets)? Just how bad do you think this will get for the S&P 500?
I understand that mortgage companines are leveraged to the hilt and reprecussions will be felt for the next 30 years with regards to lending policies. I understand that Bear Stearns lost 3 billion in mortgage back securities just because they saw a mere 11 percent depreciation in the values of the land which wiped out the entire fund (talk about leverage).
Do you feel we are entering a recession at best and maybe even a great depression? Just how bad do you feel it will get?
Do you feel that a new all time high will be made in the DOW within 2 years from this date? Do you feel this is the start of a major bear market that will not see new highs for at least 5 years (typical in Bear Markets)? Just how bad do you think this will get for the S&P 500?
I understand that mortgage companines are leveraged to the hilt and reprecussions will be felt for the next 30 years with regards to lending policies. I understand that Bear Stearns lost 3 billion in mortgage back securities just because they saw a mere 11 percent depreciation in the values of the land which wiped out the entire fund (talk about leverage).
Do you feel we are entering a recession at best and maybe even a great depression? Just how bad do you feel it will get?
Hitman, you are asking me questions about the dows' nominal value, which I honestly cannot answer.
2 years from now, the govt could decide to increase money supply 10-100-1000 fold. In that case, the dow would nominally go higher.
Right now, even the precious metals and other commodities are getting smashed, so that must be hedge funds blowing up as their easy money tree has stopped producing new fruit.
I do know this. Relative to inflation, the dow and the economy are going lower.
Real estate is why we had this false boom the past several years, and now that real estate is being smashed, everything that was growing because of it will be smashed.
The dow is only 30 stocks and can be changed to any particular stocks. I perfer following the s/p and other broader indexes to know what market is actually doing.
2 years from now, the govt could decide to increase money supply 10-100-1000 fold. In that case, the dow would nominally go higher.
Right now, even the precious metals and other commodities are getting smashed, so that must be hedge funds blowing up as their easy money tree has stopped producing new fruit.
I do know this. Relative to inflation, the dow and the economy are going lower.
Real estate is why we had this false boom the past several years, and now that real estate is being smashed, everything that was growing because of it will be smashed.
The dow is only 30 stocks and can be changed to any particular stocks. I perfer following the s/p and other broader indexes to know what market is actually doing.
shit daw...PPT sure saved my ass today
I've been keeping a keen eye on PHK, which is a Pimco junk bond fund....lol I know don't laugh. A friend of mine has made a fortune on this fund in the last 3 years. made a few bucks myself (pays 11% div). It dropped from $16.50 to $12.50....way oversold....so I put a bid in last night (after too many beers) for 5000 shares at $12.25.
wake up this morning and the bitch is down in the 10's and I'm out 10K. so I say fuck it let it ride and it bounced back and closed at $12.80 for a nice $2750 gain...sold at the bell.
I've been keeping a keen eye on PHK, which is a Pimco junk bond fund....lol I know don't laugh. A friend of mine has made a fortune on this fund in the last 3 years. made a few bucks myself (pays 11% div). It dropped from $16.50 to $12.50....way oversold....so I put a bid in last night (after too many beers) for 5000 shares at $12.25.
wake up this morning and the bitch is down in the 10's and I'm out 10K. so I say fuck it let it ride and it bounced back and closed at $12.80 for a nice $2750 gain...sold at the bell.
Today will further prove the idiot Cramer is. Dow goes neg by 2pm.
You hit the nail right on the head!
Sorry for the delay, on semi-vacation.
Most people are writing it off as a hedge, but some see more than that. In order to make money the S&P would have to lose 30-50% by the 3rd Friday in September. The real "crazies" see it as a warning of another 9/11 type attack in the immediate future. The group of bears I keep a tab on see it as someone or something betting on the house of cards finally coming down. Some think China may dump $s to offset their losses to the subprime meltdown, some think that financial insiders (BofA, Citi, GS, etc) know that the Fed can't help them and have put a wining bet on what they know to be coming.
While I find all that an eyebrow raiser, I find the meat of the blog to be the realistic breakdown of the economic data then compare it to the cheerleader reporting you find on what most consider to be the financial news media...
Looks like Bush is going to talk about Subprime.......probably indicating that Bernake is going to cut at least .25 this time and probably another .25 the next meeting.....I really was hoping for NO reduction this meeting and let this market continue to correct it self....but we shall see....as far as the bears go it is only a question of When NOT If, but in the mean time we may see a nice pop to all sectors??
