uke1:
I'm going to offer a specific prediction:
The current correction will continue to around 1350 on the S&P through September, than bounce back to around 1425 through November, and then I see it correcting again through X-mas and mid-january, forming a double bottom at 1300-1350 on declining retail sales and poor consumer confidence / continuing RE-Suprime woes.
Feds will then cut rates at the January meeting, adding liquidity (i.e. printing more $) and it's off to the races again. See 1550 S&P by summer 2008 and possibly 1600 (15000-15200 Dow) heading into the elections.
Sitting in 70% cash since spring. There's still alot of money sloshing around, soon to be more. The US is a much smaller piece of the worlds economy. BRIC nations/ Europe will carry us.
The current correction will continue to around 1350 on the S&P through September, than bounce back to around 1425 through November, and then I see it correcting again through X-mas and mid-january, forming a double bottom at 1300-1350 on declining retail sales and poor consumer confidence / continuing RE-Suprime woes.
Feds will then cut rates at the January meeting, adding liquidity (i.e. printing more $) and it's off to the races again. See 1550 S&P by summer 2008 and possibly 1600 (15000-15200 Dow) heading into the elections.
Sitting in 70% cash since spring. There's still alot of money sloshing around, soon to be more. The US is a much smaller piece of the worlds economy. BRIC nations/ Europe will carry us.
Feds aren't cutting rates. They're telling Bear Stearns and their ilk to get bent. You bet on the hoods getting mortgages, you take the hit. The fed learned their lesson playing bad-luck insurers and I don't think they'll do it again. We're in for a long downslide, the printing money game that began years ago is O-V-E-R.
Time for the economy to build itself up right, and not on a house of cards of risk leveraged to the hilt. The housing boom was a myth to maintain consumption; now it's over.
Time for the economy to build itself up right, and not on a house of cards of risk leveraged to the hilt. The housing boom was a myth to maintain consumption; now it's over.
hno: :bigfinger
Usually agree with you Woof, but I feel that the subprime market is such a small item and I really feel that hedge funds make money off of volatility and therefore make a bigger deal of everything just to move the markets down Or Up...Therefore I think the markets will go down AND up.....we are still sitting at 1500 points above where the dow was in March!
Nasdaq is up about 300 pts since then also.....Ans S&P is also up about 125 pts since March......So all in all markets have sustained there gains even after the bloodletting.......Foreign markets have also been getting beat up.........so although I am still bear overall I DO NOT think the bottom is falling out in any way shape or form.....I think we see more triple digit days up and down for about the next two weeks
I'm still a bull. It wouldn't surpise me one bit to see a huge rally in the last hour today. Of course it wouldn't surprise me to see the DOW drop 500 points either in the last hour but I think we rally. The only sectors I would stay of right now are financials or anything to do with home builders/housing sector. The QQQQ looks like a safe place to stay right now.
I dont see a final-hour rally today like yesterday.
Joe, hedge funds are overrated. Like sportsbettors, only a few select ones even beat the averages and they lose their shirts during volatility just like individual traders sometimes do.
The actual words hedge funds do not explain at all what many of them are doing.
How can they all be hedged if most of them are doing the same things and using the same methods?
When the liquidity dries up, most of them will be toast.
Joe, hedge funds are overrated. Like sportsbettors, only a few select ones even beat the averages and they lose their shirts during volatility just like individual traders sometimes do.
The actual words hedge funds do not explain at all what many of them are doing.
How can they all be hedged if most of them are doing the same things and using the same methods?
When the liquidity dries up, most of them will be toast.
Not only was (still is to most) the housing boom a myth, it was a sham.
Greenspan told people to borrow via adjustable mortgages, knowing he and the fed artificially cut and held down interest rates specifically to suck everyone into real estate and create this huge bubble.
He stuck around a while but ducked out the backdoor once he knew it could no longer be held together.
People were dumb to have believed him, but he should be written about in history books as one of this nations top liar and crook during his tenure as federal reserve chairman.
Hitman, I have no idea at this point, but I wouldnt want to be long indexes now. Nobody will want to be long indexes going into the weekend, so if its there Ill be short again in afternoon...will post here.
These problems are real and not solely short term fears.
The housing boom is over and now its time for the market to discount reduced earnings. Stocks like home depot were slammed today and this mortgage/housing bull market created much of the recent stock rally, and it will also be much responsible for the coming bear.
