There was a nice POP today as I mentioned earlier...Really think the .50 cut was an overreaction as it will just continue to devalue our dollar to "piss"...I don't nkoe which way is up right now....It might be the house of cards is coming down OR you just have to make money NOW and continue to pull it out slowly and move it overseas IMO
I have no complaints, if fed insists upon dropping money from the sky and running printing presses endlessly, my precious metals and various commodity based investments will continue doing well.
When money is created, its going to go someplace and Im not going to swim upstream fighting a rising ticker tape.
I am bullish on commodities and stocks that benefit from rising commodity prices.
I think the us economy is in recession and housing market is in a depression.
Neither of those guarantee the stock market will nominally fall, since the market is a forward looking mechanism.
Hitman, Im not at all trying to insult your intelligence, so if this question offends you, its not my intention.
Do you understand the difference between real and nominal returns?
Especially since 2002, everytime the stock market starts nominally falling, the federal reserve drastically increases the money supply and thus some of that money goes into stocks and keeps stocks artificially inflated.
This money printing has alot to do with why various commodities such as oil, gold, gasoline, wheat have risen to all time highs.
If governments around the globe are going to continue printing massive amounts of money, Im not going to stand in front of it shorting stocks.
With money US money supply estimated at 14% annual growth, if the stock market were to also nominally fall like it did in 2000-2002, it would be a complete wipeout.
The prediction I will make is this...the us stock market indexes, dow, s/p (which gets some boost from commodity based stocks), and nasdaq will underperform the commodity index (crb), gold, oil, and now agricultural commodities are going through the roof.
People have made money owning certain stocks and Ive seen you post some nice winners at this site. Congratulations.
However, when weighted against just about any other stock index around the globe, vs. just about any commodity around the globe, vs. just about any other currency around the globe, the US stock market indexes HAVE UNDERPERFORMED.
I think the us economy is in recession and housing market is in a depression.
Neither of those guarantee the stock market will nominally fall, since the market is a forward looking mechanism.
Hitman, Im not at all trying to insult your intelligence, so if this question offends you, its not my intention.
Do you understand the difference between real and nominal returns?
Especially since 2002, everytime the stock market starts nominally falling, the federal reserve drastically increases the money supply and thus some of that money goes into stocks and keeps stocks artificially inflated.
This money printing has alot to do with why various commodities such as oil, gold, gasoline, wheat have risen to all time highs.
If governments around the globe are going to continue printing massive amounts of money, Im not going to stand in front of it shorting stocks.
With money US money supply estimated at 14% annual growth, if the stock market were to also nominally fall like it did in 2000-2002, it would be a complete wipeout.
The prediction I will make is this...the us stock market indexes, dow, s/p (which gets some boost from commodity based stocks), and nasdaq will underperform the commodity index (crb), gold, oil, and now agricultural commodities are going through the roof.
People have made money owning certain stocks and Ive seen you post some nice winners at this site. Congratulations.
However, when weighted against just about any other stock index around the globe, vs. just about any commodity around the globe, vs. just about any other currency around the globe, the US stock market indexes HAVE UNDERPERFORMED.
Will also add that anyone that thinks the fed has solved all the fundamental problems with the structured debt market and economy by cutting rates, you are mistaken.
All they have done is bought themselves some time.
If they plan on bailing out all the bad mortgages, gold and oil will be higher than anyone today can imagine.
Stay tuned.
All they have done is bought themselves some time.
If they plan on bailing out all the bad mortgages, gold and oil will be higher than anyone today can imagine.
Stay tuned.
Woofer, I've been hearing stories of gloom and doom for decades now since the US has set up a money printing press. Of course the dollar is going to be devalued because of this. Is the government now printing money at higher rates in the past? Do you have any record of the rates of the dollar being devalued? Why is it worse now than in the past?
TIA.
TIA.
Woofy:
I seem to have a laymans grasp on the idea of inlflation compared to most on this board including yourself, most of which I learned in and economics 101 college course over 10 years ago. I know very little about it, and use the CPI (what I was taught in school) as a gauge for inflation. I was taught to invest in gold or oil if I was worried about inflation. In 2005 I thought 60 dollar a barrel oil was going to sink the US economy and throw us into a recession. Yet here we sit near an all time high, and retail has done very well considering the sky rocketing oil prices over the past 5 years.
The FED raised rates 17 straight times from 04 to 06 to fight inflation, but you have said nothing about that. Was the FED printing money then?
The housing market will recover within 5 to ten years, and don't you think that the housing market will be much more efficient because of all of this bullshit we are going through now that won't happen again? Gone will be the days of spec houses being built on the banks dime, or house flippers flooding the market with buy and sell orders. Houses will go back to appreciating around 2-5% a year and not 2-5% a month like in 05.
Countrywide will not go belly up, because every major US bank and the FED will come to their aid before that happens.
I guess I'm an optomist but I don't think we are in deep shit like I'm seeing on this and other boards but I'm not naive enough to think that anything bad can't happen.
The only problems I see are unexepected events like major wars or terroist attacks could throw us into a depression.
I seem to have a laymans grasp on the idea of inlflation compared to most on this board including yourself, most of which I learned in and economics 101 college course over 10 years ago. I know very little about it, and use the CPI (what I was taught in school) as a gauge for inflation. I was taught to invest in gold or oil if I was worried about inflation. In 2005 I thought 60 dollar a barrel oil was going to sink the US economy and throw us into a recession. Yet here we sit near an all time high, and retail has done very well considering the sky rocketing oil prices over the past 5 years.
The FED raised rates 17 straight times from 04 to 06 to fight inflation, but you have said nothing about that. Was the FED printing money then?
The housing market will recover within 5 to ten years, and don't you think that the housing market will be much more efficient because of all of this bullshit we are going through now that won't happen again? Gone will be the days of spec houses being built on the banks dime, or house flippers flooding the market with buy and sell orders. Houses will go back to appreciating around 2-5% a year and not 2-5% a month like in 05.
Countrywide will not go belly up, because every major US bank and the FED will come to their aid before that happens.
I guess I'm an optomist but I don't think we are in deep shit like I'm seeing on this and other boards but I'm not naive enough to think that anything bad can't happen.
The only problems I see are unexepected events like major wars or terroist attacks could throw us into a depression.
By using the term doom and gloom makes it seem as if problems such as massive debt, millions or homeowners being upside down, record trade deficits, sound like they are things that can be easily dismissed and not real problems.
Yes, the government is printing more money now than before. In fact, last year they stopped reporting the official statistics.
Its worse now than the past for we import too much of what we consume.
You are a little bit older than the average poster here and even guys your age really havent had much money on the table during a prolonged bear market.
Id like to see a list your top current holdings. Id like to see how some of you and other guys portfolios are doing and how they do in future weighted vs other investments.
Answering the bold points.
The cpi is garbage as are most government statistics. Reasons: why would govt report accurate price increases, since payments such as social security and other pensions are more or less tied to cpi? Its pretty obvious cpi is underreported. I am still shocked that you and probably others here actually believe aggregate prices are rising only 2% annually. Id like to know where you guys do your shopping.
The fed also artificially cut interest rates starting in 2001 to reduce the stock market collapse and then sucked everyone into and created a ridiculous housing bubble thats now bursting.
You have no idea whether or not the housing market will recover in 5 or 10 years...its merely a guess. We probably should wait for a sign of a bottom prior to predicting the recovery. Markets like Japan saw residential real estate prices fall 75% and commercial real estate fall 90% during the fifteen year period 1989-2004. Same thing happened with their stock market. To think something like that cannot happen here, is false.
Although I dont like the idea of seeing countless American families being foreclosed, I personally dont give two shits how many condo flippers go bankrupt...they were fools to begin with.
Can you explain to me why a house is assumed to generally be an appreciating asset. After considering all costs involved, one could argue otherwise.
Whether or not Countrywide goes bankrupt isnt the debate. Does the fed have a magical wand able to endlessly bail out whoever and whatever gets into financial trouble? I think not. A larger question is, "who is going to bail out the fed and us taxpayers"? Answer: inflation and a devaluing of the us dollar.
The phrase, the fed/government wont allow this or that to happen and will bail them out seems to be a common way for people who dont have or know or want to give the real answer.
Whats ironic and what also will be the end game is when foreigners (who hold and buy most of our debt), lose faith in the greenback and realize this countrys finances more resemble a banana republic than an economic superpower.
There is nothing wrong with being an optimist. Myself I prefer being skeptical and I also realize there are times to buy and I also realize there are times to sell. What I will always try to do is be in the sectors that will have the best growth based on fundamental and technical analysis and try to get there before the crowd arrives.
Do you not call whats going on in Middle East since 2003 a major war? Not only the costs of keeping the boots and artillery on the ground there, the costs we are paying at home and abroad for increased security to protect ourselves and our interests.
The real costs of this war on terror have yet to be felt. The interest payments on the war debt will be tremendous...and yes, inflationary since the government will be forced to print more money to pay the debt.
Joe, I dont know anything about the stock you posted.
PowerShares DB Commodity Idx Trking Fund (DBC) At 4:15PM ET: 27.08 0.23 (0.86%)
WOOF it is an ETF its holdings are as follows:
<TABLE class="" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=yfnc_modtitle1><TD><SMALL>TOP 10 HOLDINGS ( 101.21% OF TOTAL ASSETS)</SMALL></TD><TD align=right> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD noWrap height=1><SPACER width="1" height="1" type="block" /></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=yfnc_tableout1 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=yfnc_tablehead1 align=middle>Company</TD><TD class=yfnc_tablehead1 align=middle>Symbol</TD><TD class=yfnc_tablehead1 align=middle>% Assets</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Corn (Fut)</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>10.36</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Crude Oil (Fut)</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>34.58</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Gold 100 (Fut)</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>10.01</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Heating Oil (Fut)</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>21.11</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Lme Alum (Fut)</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>12.98</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Wheat Future(Cbt) (Fut)</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>12.17</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Just looking to broaden my exposure w/o adding more specific stocks and buying enitre sectors
WOOF it is an ETF its holdings are as follows:
<TABLE class="" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=yfnc_modtitle1><TD><SMALL>TOP 10 HOLDINGS ( 101.21% OF TOTAL ASSETS)</SMALL></TD><TD align=right> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD noWrap height=1><SPACER width="1" height="1" type="block" /></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=yfnc_tableout1 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=yfnc_tablehead1 align=middle>Company</TD><TD class=yfnc_tablehead1 align=middle>Symbol</TD><TD class=yfnc_tablehead1 align=middle>% Assets</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Corn (Fut)</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>10.36</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Crude Oil (Fut)</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>34.58</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Gold 100 (Fut)</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>10.01</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Heating Oil (Fut)</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>21.11</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Lme Alum (Fut)</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>12.98</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Wheat Future(Cbt) (Fut)</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>12.17</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Just looking to broaden my exposure w/o adding more specific stocks and buying enitre sectors
good stuff DAW. Agree 100% fwiw
Joe - take a look at BHP (Billiton Ltd.)
Really just basically a commodity "mutual fund" based in Australia. Outstanding management.
Main advantages are: your money is diversified from the USD (priced in AUS $), World's 2nd Largest Copper & Coal, 3rd Largest Nickel, 4th Uranium producers.
5 year chart:
Pretty decent dividend too (1.7%)
Joe - take a look at BHP (Billiton Ltd.)
Really just basically a commodity "mutual fund" based in Australia. Outstanding management.
Main advantages are: your money is diversified from the USD (priced in AUS $), World's 2nd Largest Copper & Coal, 3rd Largest Nickel, 4th Uranium producers.
5 year chart:
Pretty decent dividend too (1.7%)
WOOF et al.....I am looking at symbol VGPMX it is an ETF precious metals with its top holdings being .......What do y'all think??
<TABLE class="" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=yfnc_modtitle1><TD><SMALL>TOP 10 HOLDINGS ( 59.15% OF TOTAL ASSETS)</SMALL></TD><TD align=right> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD noWrap height=1><SPACER type="block" height="1" width="1" /></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=yfnc_tableout1 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=yfnc_tablehead1 align=middle>Company</TD><TD class=yfnc_tablehead1 align=middle>Symbol</TD><TD class=yfnc_tablehead1 align=middle>% Assets</TD><TD class=yfnc_tablehead1 align=middle>YTD Return %</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Lonmin</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>11.97</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>N/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>IMPALA PLATINUM</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>7.02</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>N/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Johnson Matthey</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>6.11</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>N/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>ABER DIAMOND CORP</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>ABER</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>5.86</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>-1.98</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Anglo Platinum, Ltd. ADR</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>5.85</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>N/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Rio Tinto Ltd</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>5.53</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>N/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Eramet</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>5.08</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>N/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>K+S Grp</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>4.65</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>N/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>CONS ENERGY INC</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>CNX</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>3.77</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>24.79</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Sims Group, Ltd. Ordinary Share</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>3.31</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>N/A</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class="" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=yfnc_modtitle1><TD><SMALL>TOP 10 HOLDINGS ( 59.15% OF TOTAL ASSETS)</SMALL></TD><TD align=right> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD noWrap height=1><SPACER type="block" height="1" width="1" /></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=yfnc_tableout1 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=yfnc_tablehead1 align=middle>Company</TD><TD class=yfnc_tablehead1 align=middle>Symbol</TD><TD class=yfnc_tablehead1 align=middle>% Assets</TD><TD class=yfnc_tablehead1 align=middle>YTD Return %</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Lonmin</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>11.97</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>N/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>IMPALA PLATINUM</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>7.02</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>N/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Johnson Matthey</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>6.11</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>N/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>ABER DIAMOND CORP</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>ABER</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>5.86</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>-1.98</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Anglo Platinum, Ltd. ADR</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>5.85</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>N/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Rio Tinto Ltd</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>5.53</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>N/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Eramet</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>5.08</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>N/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>K+S Grp</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>4.65</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>N/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>CONS ENERGY INC</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>CNX</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>3.77</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>24.79</TD></TR><TR><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>Sims Group, Ltd. Ordinary Share</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1>N/A</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>3.31</TD><TD class=yfnc_tabledata1 align=right>N/A</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
