Bar n Grill - Oct 2008 On Frozen Pond

[artiesliver]

Nice night.

 

[lifexpired]

excellent barman!

 

[barman]

thanks fellas

==============
Saturday, Oct 11

Following selections straight for $8 each (prices via Greek)

HAWK +120 at Cap
DEVIL/FLIGHTLESS BIRD Undah 5 (+110)
CANE/BOLT Undah 5.5 (even)
NUCK/FIRE Undah 5 (+120)
BEAR +125 at Wild

2TeamParlay

RANGER/FLY Undah 5.5 (-120)
KING +1.5 (-150) at Shark

Lay 6
Pays 12.33
--------------------------

Best to us all for a profitable HNIC

 

[barman]

NOTES

While Friday night was certainly an unimpressive showing for Washington, further examination has me with the feeling they could well be the early season BigDisappointment as they continue to find their desired form in the Ovechkin era.

Jose Theodore may well be the answer they're seeking in their quest to shut down opponents while their two front scoring lines work for their nightly three to four goals. But I'm going to need to see several consistent weeks before I'm ready to buy in to the full Caps package.

Let's remember that prior to their 15-4 run at the end of last season, they were a fairly dismal 28-35 and teetering towards yet another losing record. But they took advantage of the heavy intradivisional schedule to win their last seven in a row and squeezed into the "third seed" as Southeast champs.

New year...start fresh...immediately get Thrashed in a division game for seven goals and here come the offensive minded Chicagos.

I'm betting the -140 tag on the Caps is another in what could be many overpriced spots for a relatively average team with one of the two most visible players in the league. Give us the less amped Hawks with their wider range of potential scorers shooting at a club that has allowed 35 goals in their past nine games outside of that seven game regular season win streak last March.

--------------
Meanwhile up in the soon to be frozen northlands, we like the Boston club to break up the Minnesota opening night festivities. Bruins playing Away After Away are 14-8 since last season began including an 8-4 mark when they've had one day off. And though they only scored 5+ goals eight times last season, they followed up with a win six times.

--------------
Rangers in past two seasons when playing with 0DaysRest have seen only eight games in 31 top 5.5

Flyers when playing Home with no road game behind them have had 15 of 21 stay Under 5.5

And in their home opener vs division rival Rangers we expect a strong fundamental showing.

------------
Devils After Allowing 1 or less goals in past two seasons have seen next game top 5 just 13 times in 46 outings.

This is a prevailing theme among Top10 defensive teams and tonight it also impacts Vancouver as the Nucks have had only 12 in past 50 top 5 when in this role.

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Tampa Bay - until last season had a 3+ year run of being a Top10 offense, but now they've slid so far that they've only topped two goals in two of their last 11 regular season games.

And though we agree their newly aligned defensive mode is worthy of severe scrutiny, we think that in the home opener they can put enough clamp down to keep Carolina at 3 or less and give us a fair shot to beat the 5.5
---------

Kings just in a good spot with their own season opener vs division rival Sharks. LA was 6-2 last season vs SJ when graded at +1.5

San Jose in all Home games last season beat the -1.5 just 11 times (11-30), so we hope we've spotted a very usable piece for our "minus price" 2Teamer

-----
FINALLY, a strong Lean that Atlanta scores Under 2.5 goals tonight, but we want to see a price before we post it.

 

[barman]

Oct 11 summary

1-6 (-29.20)
--------------------

Good deal. Now I don't need to sweat the pressure of having a .900 win percentage in October......heh

 

[barman]

SUNDAY, Oct 12

YOTE +160 at Duck $8

And as a component in today's 2Teamer O' the Day (see alternate thread), we're using

OIL -135 vs Lanche

Best to us all for a profitable Sunday

 

[artiesliver]

BoL today B'man. I will be on both of those plays as well tonight. Let's get the man tonight...

 

[barman]

Oct 12 summary

2-0

NHL bank (+10.80)

2TeamerODay looking good at themoment with Dodgers....will tally that asap

 

[artiesliver]

Great job tonight.

 

[barman]

Thanks...was flying earlier and didn't have time to post some supporting info

FYI in coming weeks

PHX Yotes one of NHL's best playing with 0DaysRest last season, finishing 9-8 (6-5 Away)

COL close to, if not the league's worst when playing Away After a Home game last season - finishing 2-16

 

[artiesliver]

Flying where? CR?

 

[barman]

heh...'flying' around dealing with Sunday life in general

Went across street to mall this morning and the upper ball joint on my truck's right front popped out. Had to get a tow and then load some smaller tools into SheBar's Camry so I could bill a bit of lawn/garden.

Good news is that I should get the problem solved for less than $150

 

[lifexpired]

good job as usual, wish i'd seen your opinion on dodgers, i burned my money on moyer myself

 

[barman]

MONDAY, Oct 13

Cutting back on size just a bit as we continue to better evaluate the opening weeks of NHL

Following selections all straight for $6 using 5Dimes pricing
BUD -116 vs Blue
BLUE/BUD Over 5.5 (+102)
NUCK/CAP Undah 5.5 (-117)
PREDATOR tt Over 2.5 (-115)

2TeamParlay

SWORD/ISLE Undah 5.5 (-126)
DEVILTRY/RANGER Undah 5 (-123)

Lay 5
Pays 11.26
==========

Best to us all for a profitable Monday

 

[barman]

NOTES

St Louis road record is below average, but when playing Away After an Away game, they've got just four wins in their past 19 chances.

Also, Blues After Allowing 5+ goals show utterly no bounceback as they last season won only twice in 14 chances. Take it back to include previous season and they're just 6-23 After Allowing 5+ goals.

Toronto, meanwhile playing Home After Home and playing After Allowing 5+ goals is a just over .500 team

For the TOTAL, we note that MapleLeaf games at Home last season were 28-13 vs 5.5 and After Allowing 5+ goals, both Blues and Buds are about a 55% Over vs 5.5

------

Other Totals based on actuarial averages for the teams involved - notably the Devils Under 5 as they Allowed 1orless goals in last outing. Mix in their history with NYR and the fact past three H2H have gone Over and we like this one to plod along in numbing fashion.

 

[barman]

Oct 13 summary

2-3 (-6.98)
-----------------

 

[barman]

TUESDAY, Oct 14

WILD/THRASHER Over 5.5 (+110) $6
KING +130 vs Duck $6

Modest lean to COL, but with price only at +125 I'm going to wait until mid-evening and see if I can see some Calgary money shove it more in my favor.

Best to us all for a profitable Tuesday

==============
NOTES

Wild past 24 playing with 2+DaysRest went over 5.5 a dozen times (12-12)

Thrashers playing Home After Away were 16-6 vs 5.5 in past 22 chances.
When the previously Away game finished Under 5.5, the target game was 9-3 Over 5.5


Kings scheduling roles put a decent lean on the +130 and given what I hope is an improved lineup compared to late last season, I'm pulling for them to overcome their first two outings versus a very very tough San Jose defense and reach 3 goals here. Possible OT/SO finish adds potential drama.

 

[artiesliver]

B'man--Don't have the time to cap this a.m. Do you know how San Jose, Anaheim and Los Angeles have done playing 3/4 the past couple of seasons? Just asking in case you know off hand, otherwise not a problem. Thanks.

 

[barman]

Black line is moneyline, with the third figure being how many of the games were settled via SO

Red Line is -1.5
Blue Line is +1.5
Green Line is Total...In the case of ANA and SJ a Push is almost always 5, with LAK it's almost always 6

SAN JOSE 2008

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2007

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ANAHEIM 2008

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2007

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LAKINGS 2008

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2007

I do not have fully tabulated

---
2008 ANA Away 3rdin4 was 5-8
2008 LAK Home 3rdin4 was 2-5
2008 SJ Homw 3rdin4 was 7-5

 

[barman]

And when I went to increase font size on that last post, it resulted in every other post on this page shrinking.....Utter mystery