BACK AGAIN-- My Inter Conference OVERS Posted Here Last Year Hit at 80%

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F me, F U
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Good luck Sandy

Big, that would be Houston MNF over. Prime time games have been consistently overs so like it.
 

Dogfather
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vinny. I updated bigred's record using just the home team. Just five plays so far this season, which went 4-1, still 80%.

You are right, it's Houston which is tomorrow.
 
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0-5 now. We should stop posting these inter-conference plays like they are something special. They are no different than any other totals. You can flip a coin and do better than playing these IC overs blindly.
 

Dogfather
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workweek and everyone. I know it hurt and I'm sorry. I do feel bad about today. I have no idea why, except that for every game today, the overs went just 4-8. I could just quitely stop posting and not take responsibility for today, but that would be wrong. I still have the Niners/Denver OVER play and if it can go OVER, this week and last week combined would be 4-5, not good but not the disaster today by itself was. I decided to keep posting these and keep records of how they do, but I would not expect anyone but me to play these, until they show they can win again.

Russell Peters. I'm sure you are happy they lost today, so you can post what an expert you are, except you are not an expert, your a jerk hiding behind a keyboard. You aren't playing them and the only reason you come into my thread is to hope these plays lose so you can tell everyone what a know it all you think you are.
 

Dogfather
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Yes, yesterday was a disaster, but still 4-5 last two weeks. Actually, I have no play for tonight, but bigred36t posted here that Thursday night home teams go OVER the next time they play. I went back and looked at how the Thursday home team did this season and 4 of the 5 weeks they went Over the next game they played. Just a reminder that HOUSTON was the home team the week before on Thursday.

Tonight looks like one of the hardest sides to pick. They both suck in their own ways, so maybe Over is the way to go. Good luck whatever you do.
 

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Has anyone taken the time to consider that the oddsmakers themselves are aware of the interconference over tendency and just adjusted their lines for any interconference game? Its not like its some big secret, especially if it was a trend over several years.
 

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workweek and everyone. I know it hurt and I'm sorry. I do feel bad about today. I have no idea why, except that for every game today, the overs went just 4-8. I could just quitely stop posting and not take responsibility for today, but that would be wrong. I still have the Niners/Denver OVER play and if it can go OVER, this week and last week combined would be 4-5, not good but not the disaster today by itself was. I decided to keep posting these and keep records of how they do, but I would not expect anyone but me to play these, until they show they can win again.

Russell Peters. I'm sure you are happy they lost today, so you can post what an expert you are, except you are not an expert, your a jerk hiding behind a keyboard. You aren't playing them and the only reason you come into my thread is to hope these plays lose so you can tell everyone what a know it all you think you are.

keep posting Sandman...we're big boys here for the most part and we know the drill...it's what happens in the long run that counts, not a week or two or three....don't pay any attention to the whiners and bashers.....appreciate your contributions
 

Biz

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Last year many people were on the Inter-Conference OVER bandwagon. I work in a gambling establishment, and believe me many people were drooling over them all year. If you want to take credit for them, call them Your system, then thats fine and dandy. But here is where myth meets reality.

Last year was the ONLY year over the past ELEVEN that showed a significant profit. They went an insane 49-15, which is unsustainable. It was a statistical aberration. I've posted the previous record of these situations before. In the 11 years prior to this one;

- 4 were below 50%
- 3 went 33-30, which allowing for juice leaves zero profit. That makes 7 out of 11 showing a loss or no profit.
The remaining 3 years excluding last year's: 36-28, 36-28, 35-29. Around 5 units twice and 3 units on the other.
Last year was 49-15.

This year they are 16-16, which is a loss accounting for juice. All numbers are based on the closing lines, we can split hairs over getting a good line or not.

Collectively to date, they are 387-340 (53.2%). That's including the one monster year, over the last 11+ years.

Now, some will say the rules have allowed scoring to enhance the overs. If that were the case, then they wouldn't be 16-16 this year. You would also find other situations with a lean to the over, if this were true. Keep in mind, the bias by bettors to bet Overs isn't unnoticed by line makers. They will shade the lines up, knowing that bettors will still bet Overs.

The same thing is happening this year with Prime Time games. 18-4 this year. The past 11+ years, including this year? 257-238 (51.9%).
2013: 28-21
2012: 18-30
2011: 24-18
2010: 22-21
2009: 17-24
2008: 25-17
2007: 22-23
2006: 21-28
2005: 23-16
2004: 23-16
2003: 16-20

6 years losers, 6 winners including this year. There is no pattern for a winning or a losing year.

The key is to get ahead of the curve when you see something streaking. Rarely can people spot them in time and profit. Such as those jumping on this phenomenon this year.

I would be very wary of blindly jumping on these Overs or the Prime Time Overs. I/C overs have not shown a consistent profit from year to year at all, and the Prime Time Overs are extremely hit or miss. This year they are streaking, just like last year's I/C Overs. How long will it last??

The key to a good system/angle is one that wins consistently from year to year, or is based on a solid theory or foundation. These two situations are more statistical aberration, rather than a solid system that is a consistent yearly winner.
 

Dogfather
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Biz. I read your post and understand what you are saying, but first I never said this is my system, it's just something I noticed and started posting last year. I agree, the numbers for past years don't lie; however, I still plan to post the Inter Conference OVERS and keep up to date showing how well or not so well they do each week. Although they are nowhere near how profitable they were last season, forgetting week one, they do show a small profit from week 2 thru week 7 this year.

The past two weeks were 3-0 then 1-5, so which is the trend? My advise is to read Biz's post and then you decide if you want to play this weeks IC OVERS. I don't believe the books are raising the totals line because of what happened last year because last year ended with IC OVERS going 12-3. Had the lines been increased last year, the plays later in the season would not have gone OVER at such a high percentage.

I do want to add that bigred's system of Thursday night home teams going OVER the total the following week, did hold true with Houston going OVER Monday night, making those plays now 5-1.

Just two Inter Conference games this week, both early Sunday games. In addition, New England is also last weeks Thursday night home team (now 5-1 over), making them more likely to go OVER as they are both an Inter Conference team and Thursday night home team.

The two Inter Conference games this week are

ST. LOUIS/KANSAS CITY OVER 44
CHICAGO/NEW ENGLAND OVER 51

SUMMARY:
Last Week: 1-5

Week One: 0-4
Weeks Two thru Seven: 15-13

All Picks: 15-17
 

Biz

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Sand,
You can't pick out the bad week(s), then say they are profitable this year. They are a 50% proposition this year. The numbers are the numbers.

Regarding the past 2 weeks, you don't get a trend from a sample size of 2 weeks.

I play lots of angles. I don't worry about short term results, it's long term. If I have a 60% situation, there will be weeks they lose. But over the season, they will win. I want my angle plays, that are 60% historically, to show a profit every year or damn close to it. Consistency is the key.

In no way do I want you to stop posting, not my intention. I just want to caution those jumping in with both fists.
 

Dogfather
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Biz. I know you don't get a trend from just two weeks. That's why I wrote "which is the trend?" meaning there is no trend. As for your cautioning those jumping in with both fists, that's OK, in fact didn't you see where I posted that people should read your post and then decide if they want to play this weeks OVER plays.

There were just two Inter Conference games this weekend and the OVER plays split with New England going way OVER and Kansas City missing by just a field goal. Remember, New England was also bigred's system of Thursday night home teams going OVER the total the following week, making those plays 6-1. There are not any Inter Conference games tonight or Thursday night, but there are three Sunday plus Monday night's game.

SUMMARY:
Last Week: 1-1

Week One: 0-4
Weeks Two thru Eight: 16-14

All Picks: 16-18
 

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I appreciate the well-reasoned and very civil discussion...thanks guys.
 

Dogfather
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Just two Inter Conference plays last week, which split going 1-1, while the week before last Thursday nights home team, New England, went way OVER the total vs. Chicago making those plays 6-1. Ironically Denver, the Thursday night home team, is playing New England, making the Denver/New England game the OVER play.

Three IC games tomorrow, two early and one late. Again, I'm not suggesting you play these to go OVER, until we see more OVERS, while I continue to keep records in this thread. Here are the three IC games Sunday. Let's see how they do.

TAMPA BAY/CLEVELAND OVER 43.5
PHILLY/HOUSTON OVER 48.5
OAKLAND/SEATTLE OVER 43.

SUMMARY:
Last Week: 1-1

Week One: 0-4
Weeks Two thru Eight: 16-14

All Picks: 16-18
 

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