Last year many people were on the Inter-Conference OVER bandwagon. I work in a gambling establishment, and believe me many people were drooling over them all year. If you want to take credit for them, call them Your system, then thats fine and dandy. But here is where myth meets reality.
Last year was the ONLY year over the past ELEVEN that showed a significant profit. They went an insane 49-15, which is unsustainable. It was a statistical aberration. I've posted the previous record of these situations before. In the 11 years prior to this one;
- 4 were below 50%
- 3 went 33-30, which allowing for juice leaves zero profit. That makes 7 out of 11 showing a loss or no profit.
The remaining 3 years excluding last year's: 36-28, 36-28, 35-29. Around 5 units twice and 3 units on the other.
Last year was 49-15.
This year they are 16-16, which is a loss accounting for juice. All numbers are based on the closing lines, we can split hairs over getting a good line or not.
Collectively to date, they are 387-340 (53.2%). That's including the one monster year, over the last 11+ years.
Now, some will say the rules have allowed scoring to enhance the overs. If that were the case, then they wouldn't be 16-16 this year. You would also find other situations with a lean to the over, if this were true. Keep in mind, the bias by bettors to bet Overs isn't unnoticed by line makers. They will shade the lines up, knowing that bettors will still bet Overs.
The same thing is happening this year with Prime Time games. 18-4 this year. The past 11+ years, including this year? 257-238 (51.9%).
2013: 28-21
2012: 18-30
2011: 24-18
2010: 22-21
2009: 17-24
2008: 25-17
2007: 22-23
2006: 21-28
2005: 23-16
2004: 23-16
2003: 16-20
6 years losers, 6 winners including this year. There is no pattern for a winning or a losing year.
The key is to get ahead of the curve when you see something streaking. Rarely can people spot them in time and profit. Such as those jumping on this phenomenon this year.
I would be very wary of blindly jumping on these Overs or the Prime Time Overs. I/C overs have not shown a consistent profit from year to year at all, and the Prime Time Overs are extremely hit or miss. This year they are streaking, just like last year's I/C Overs. How long will it last??
The key to a good system/angle is one that wins consistently from year to year, or is based on a solid theory or foundation. These two situations are more statistical aberration, rather than a solid system that is a consistent yearly winner.