NFC North
Another lousy NFC division. Not much should change, though Minnesota perhaps takes a step forward
Chicago Bears UNDER 6.5 (-180)
On the fence with this one, especially considering the value of betting the over. But I have to go under. I think Fields will take a decent step forward, and I think they have a schedule that plays very much to their favor. So if it goes over I won’t be shocked. But there is a good bit not to like. Their skill positions players are still pretty crappy offensively, and their defense – the foundation of the team and their culture – has lost some significant pieces as well. The losses will be felt on the defensive line especially. THe lack of being able to put pressure on opponents’ QB’s – something they weren’t good at last year already with better personnel – will expose one of the weakest secondaries in the NFL. They have a nice linebacking core, but that is pretty useless when you’re so vulnerable in the rest of your defense. Fields’ progression could push them to over the number, but this feels more like 6-11 or 5-12 to me.
Detroit Lions UNDER 6.5 (+105)
Yeah this team is getting a little too much hype. They seem to be everyone’s favorite to surprise this year, to the point that it’s pretty weird. People seem to forget that this team isn’t…..good lol. Mediocre to bad quarterback, bad defense, strangely overrated coach. I guess they have a few promising young guys on offense, and Hutchison probably won’t be a bust. But being “competitive” and “keeping games close” doesn’t actually mean you’re that good. Any team in the league is capable of giving any other team a run for its money in any given game, so I don’t buy that this team is going to see much improvement. Their roster screams bottom quarter of the league, and so asking them to win 7 games (a lot of people think this team could make the playoffs or at least get close) seems like a stretch to me.
Green Bay Packers OVER 11 (-110)
Regular season Rodgers is a treat to watch. Regular season LeFleur is awesome. The team is going to shift to a little more balance I think with even a run-first approach, plus their defense is top 3-5 in the NFL. This team is good at churning regular season wins with Lefleur/Rodgers (13 in three straight seasons) so why should we believe it’ll change? Sure, they lost possibly the best receiver in the NFL but Regular season Rodgers is basically a god. I expect plenty of discount double-checking this season
The 11 may seem a little high for a team that has a 0% chance to make the Super Bowl, but I think they get to 12 or 13 – if not a push
Minnesota Vikings OVER 9 (-130)
I’m not high on Kirk Cousins, but I do think he will see a little progression this year with a new coach. Zimmer was truly an awful fit for him, and it’s not like Cousins has put up dud numbers during his time in Minnesota. I think the number is pretty appropriate here. This team has a lot of weapons on offense, and I think they can navigate a weak conference and division to get to at least 9 wins. They should be in the playoff picture just by default. The defense though is still pretty bleh. Not a ton of thoughts on this one to be honest.
Another lousy NFC division. Not much should change, though Minnesota perhaps takes a step forward
Chicago Bears UNDER 6.5 (-180)
On the fence with this one, especially considering the value of betting the over. But I have to go under. I think Fields will take a decent step forward, and I think they have a schedule that plays very much to their favor. So if it goes over I won’t be shocked. But there is a good bit not to like. Their skill positions players are still pretty crappy offensively, and their defense – the foundation of the team and their culture – has lost some significant pieces as well. The losses will be felt on the defensive line especially. THe lack of being able to put pressure on opponents’ QB’s – something they weren’t good at last year already with better personnel – will expose one of the weakest secondaries in the NFL. They have a nice linebacking core, but that is pretty useless when you’re so vulnerable in the rest of your defense. Fields’ progression could push them to over the number, but this feels more like 6-11 or 5-12 to me.
Detroit Lions UNDER 6.5 (+105)
Yeah this team is getting a little too much hype. They seem to be everyone’s favorite to surprise this year, to the point that it’s pretty weird. People seem to forget that this team isn’t…..good lol. Mediocre to bad quarterback, bad defense, strangely overrated coach. I guess they have a few promising young guys on offense, and Hutchison probably won’t be a bust. But being “competitive” and “keeping games close” doesn’t actually mean you’re that good. Any team in the league is capable of giving any other team a run for its money in any given game, so I don’t buy that this team is going to see much improvement. Their roster screams bottom quarter of the league, and so asking them to win 7 games (a lot of people think this team could make the playoffs or at least get close) seems like a stretch to me.
Green Bay Packers OVER 11 (-110)
Regular season Rodgers is a treat to watch. Regular season LeFleur is awesome. The team is going to shift to a little more balance I think with even a run-first approach, plus their defense is top 3-5 in the NFL. This team is good at churning regular season wins with Lefleur/Rodgers (13 in three straight seasons) so why should we believe it’ll change? Sure, they lost possibly the best receiver in the NFL but Regular season Rodgers is basically a god. I expect plenty of discount double-checking this season
The 11 may seem a little high for a team that has a 0% chance to make the Super Bowl, but I think they get to 12 or 13 – if not a push
Minnesota Vikings OVER 9 (-130)
I’m not high on Kirk Cousins, but I do think he will see a little progression this year with a new coach. Zimmer was truly an awful fit for him, and it’s not like Cousins has put up dud numbers during his time in Minnesota. I think the number is pretty appropriate here. This team has a lot of weapons on offense, and I think they can navigate a weak conference and division to get to at least 9 wins. They should be in the playoff picture just by default. The defense though is still pretty bleh. Not a ton of thoughts on this one to be honest.
If I'm a Packers fan, I'm kinda hoping they go like 10-7 and fall to the 5 seed and get a match up with Dallas or Minnesota in Wild Card Weekend. Spot could be lower pressure for Rodgers and could see classic Cowboys meltdown or PrimeTime Cousins
Then when they lose to 49ers/Rams/Bucs, it's at least on the road
Then when they lose to 49ers/Rams/Bucs, it's at least on the road
NFC South
.....and another bad NFC division lol
Atlanta Falcons UNDER 5 (-145)
There’s a part of me that thinks Mariota is going to surprise some people, and I like Pitts a lot. But this roster is pretty atrocious in all honesty. You may need to hide your children from the TV when this defense trots onto the field. This feels like a rebuilding roster, and with a quarterback rich draft set for 2023 and Mariota as a clear bridge, the franchise isn’t exactly hiding that they’re not that interested in winning games this year. The schedule for them is also not friendly, and so I could see some early struggles followed by a nice ole tank job. Only thing that I can see getting in the way of a bad year is they accidentally beat up two other bad teams in their divsion/Mariota is out for blood on a revenge tour. But I like the under’s chances here.
Carolina Panthers OVER 6.5 (+105)
I think this team has an outside chance to make the playoffs, and Baker – albeit mediocre – is an upgrade at QB. McCaffery is pretty hard to count on health wise and frankly I don’t expect him to play more than half the season – if that. But the Panthers have one of the most underrated defensive units in the league, and they have a true pass rush that is going to give some teams some problems. I think there are enough easier spots on this schedule, combined with a lackluster conference, that maybe they can compete for a 9-8 season and snag the 7 seed if things break their way injury wise. There’s not a lot to love offensively outside of McCaffery – pretty bland receiving group, not a good offensive line, and Baker is limited. But I think if they can keep their star RB healthy and get into some defensive struggles, I can see them being a scrappy .500ish team
New Orleans Saints UNDER 8.5 (+100)
One of my favorite bets across the league. Coaching adjustments aside, there is a lot to not like about this team. They are going to struggle to score a lot more than people realize. Kamara is obviously a great back, but he will struggle to be consistently effective with their line. And honestly he’s not quite the bell cow that a lot of people think he is. His job will also be harder given that Jameis Winston is his quarterback. I’ve heard people say this guy is a dark horse MVP candidate lol like what the fuck? This guy is a bottom half of the league quarterback, unless you like your quarterback to reliably throw 2 interceptions per game. Olave was a nice pick, but kind of meaningless when Winson throws the ball to the wrong team. Defense again is stout on paper, but they struggle with consistency and I think are going to underachieve yet again. This team should be below .500
Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 11.5 (-135)
I’m generally pretty high on Tampa, and this one may be a dumb bet. They do seem to be getting some pretty bad breaks roster wise, and the Jensen loss is pretty huge. They have the best roster in the division by a mile still, but I do think there will be some bumps this year. I also could see this team coasting a little bit down the stretch if the 1 seed isn’t attainable. The division is so weak that they could take a week or two “off” at the end and cruise to 11-6. I don’t know….number is tough.
.....and another bad NFC division lol
Atlanta Falcons UNDER 5 (-145)
There’s a part of me that thinks Mariota is going to surprise some people, and I like Pitts a lot. But this roster is pretty atrocious in all honesty. You may need to hide your children from the TV when this defense trots onto the field. This feels like a rebuilding roster, and with a quarterback rich draft set for 2023 and Mariota as a clear bridge, the franchise isn’t exactly hiding that they’re not that interested in winning games this year. The schedule for them is also not friendly, and so I could see some early struggles followed by a nice ole tank job. Only thing that I can see getting in the way of a bad year is they accidentally beat up two other bad teams in their divsion/Mariota is out for blood on a revenge tour. But I like the under’s chances here.
Carolina Panthers OVER 6.5 (+105)
I think this team has an outside chance to make the playoffs, and Baker – albeit mediocre – is an upgrade at QB. McCaffery is pretty hard to count on health wise and frankly I don’t expect him to play more than half the season – if that. But the Panthers have one of the most underrated defensive units in the league, and they have a true pass rush that is going to give some teams some problems. I think there are enough easier spots on this schedule, combined with a lackluster conference, that maybe they can compete for a 9-8 season and snag the 7 seed if things break their way injury wise. There’s not a lot to love offensively outside of McCaffery – pretty bland receiving group, not a good offensive line, and Baker is limited. But I think if they can keep their star RB healthy and get into some defensive struggles, I can see them being a scrappy .500ish team
New Orleans Saints UNDER 8.5 (+100)
One of my favorite bets across the league. Coaching adjustments aside, there is a lot to not like about this team. They are going to struggle to score a lot more than people realize. Kamara is obviously a great back, but he will struggle to be consistently effective with their line. And honestly he’s not quite the bell cow that a lot of people think he is. His job will also be harder given that Jameis Winston is his quarterback. I’ve heard people say this guy is a dark horse MVP candidate lol like what the fuck? This guy is a bottom half of the league quarterback, unless you like your quarterback to reliably throw 2 interceptions per game. Olave was a nice pick, but kind of meaningless when Winson throws the ball to the wrong team. Defense again is stout on paper, but they struggle with consistency and I think are going to underachieve yet again. This team should be below .500
Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 11.5 (-135)
I’m generally pretty high on Tampa, and this one may be a dumb bet. They do seem to be getting some pretty bad breaks roster wise, and the Jensen loss is pretty huge. They have the best roster in the division by a mile still, but I do think there will be some bumps this year. I also could see this team coasting a little bit down the stretch if the 1 seed isn’t attainable. The division is so weak that they could take a week or two “off” at the end and cruise to 11-6. I don’t know….number is tough.
Tend to only bet the totals under so here is what I have. Bonus play, Anderson to win the Heisman.
Carolina un6.5 -115 tough schedule and CMC probably plays half the schedule as usual
Denver un10.5 -161 RB Williams may get them to 9 or 10, but a jump to 11 is unlikely
Jax un6.5 -135 I think they might have a chance for six, but I don't see seven wins
Minnesota un9.5 -115 I don't see a tenth win in their schedule
New England un8.5 -101 no offensive weapons
New Orleans ov8.5 ev Winston could be due for a big year with many weapons
NYJ un5.5 +135 don't believe the hype
Cincinnati un10 -140 always bet the SB loser under the following season
Miami un9 -140 this and SF are not part of my system, just don't like the QB's...Tua has talent
San Fran un10 -110 and weapons, but is a bad decision maker, Lance is not Mahomes.
Carolina un6.5 -115 tough schedule and CMC probably plays half the schedule as usual
Denver un10.5 -161 RB Williams may get them to 9 or 10, but a jump to 11 is unlikely
Jax un6.5 -135 I think they might have a chance for six, but I don't see seven wins
Minnesota un9.5 -115 I don't see a tenth win in their schedule
New England un8.5 -101 no offensive weapons
New Orleans ov8.5 ev Winston could be due for a big year with many weapons
NYJ un5.5 +135 don't believe the hype
Cincinnati un10 -140 always bet the SB loser under the following season
Miami un9 -140 this and SF are not part of my system, just don't like the QB's...Tua has talent
San Fran un10 -110 and weapons, but is a bad decision maker, Lance is not Mahomes.
Miami Dolphins UNDER 9 (-125)
I like what this team brings to the table defensively. They have one of the best CB sets in the NFL without a doubt, and I think they're gonna be at worst a plucky team that will be able to hang in games because of a nice defense. Tyreek Hill is a nice pickup as well with his playmaking -- something they've really lacked -- and I think he pairs nicely with Waddle.
But there are a couple concerns. First and foremost is Tua. I feel like he is a very limited quarterback that can only really produce on plays designed to get the ball out of his hands quickly/short-to-intermediate passes. There's a lot of similarities to Jimmy G in this sense, except it's TBD on if Tua has Jimmy's intangibles, etc. I think being a contender in this division and conference as a whole is going to require more than that, and I don't see him with the ability to become more of a downfield threat. I also hate their schedule in the back end. They have a 5-game stretch towards the end of the season of Niners, Chargers, Bills, Packers, and Patriots -- three of which on the road. It seems plausible they could go 0-5 in those games. This might be the reverse of last year where they go on a run in the early to mid portion of the season, but then really fade down the stretch. Miami will win around 7 or 8 games -- so not shocking if they do push or even cover, but under feels like the play.
Been checking out Miami's game logs from last year. Maybe you, Av, or one of the Florida guys could take a stab at this question I have.
Why did their defense improve so dramatically from Nov 7th on? Can they hold that form this season?
I like what this team brings to the table defensively. They have one of the best CB sets in the NFL without a doubt, and I think they're gonna be at worst a plucky team that will be able to hang in games because of a nice defense. Tyreek Hill is a nice pickup as well with his playmaking -- something they've really lacked -- and I think he pairs nicely with Waddle.
But there are a couple concerns. First and foremost is Tua. I feel like he is a very limited quarterback that can only really produce on plays designed to get the ball out of his hands quickly/short-to-intermediate passes. There's a lot of similarities to Jimmy G in this sense, except it's TBD on if Tua has Jimmy's intangibles, etc. I think being a contender in this division and conference as a whole is going to require more than that, and I don't see him with the ability to become more of a downfield threat. I also hate their schedule in the back end. They have a 5-game stretch towards the end of the season of Niners, Chargers, Bills, Packers, and Patriots -- three of which on the road. It seems plausible they could go 0-5 in those games. This might be the reverse of last year where they go on a run in the early to mid portion of the season, but then really fade down the stretch. Miami will win around 7 or 8 games -- so not shocking if they do push or even cover, but under feels like the play.
Been checking out Miami's game logs from last year. Maybe you, Av, or one of the Florida guys could take a stab at this question I have.
Why did their defense improve so dramatically from Nov 7th on? Can they hold that form this season?
NFC West
This is the best division in football IMO
Arizona Cardinals UNDER 8.5 (-110)
Probably my least favorite one on the board. Thought about laying more juice to get 9 or 9.5, but went ahead and just flipped a coin here. This team isn't bad, but I think they are gonna be terrorized by a tough division and some tough out of division opponents. I also don't feel great about Kyler. On one hand, I think he is a tremendous talent, is great at keeping plays alive, has a great arm, etc. On the other, I worry about his ability to stay healthy as the season progresses. I also don't like what the team did in terms of surrounding him with weapons -- think they'll be too reliant on Kyler. The defense could surprise some, but they just seem kind of meh to me. This is probably an 8 or 9 win team when it's all said and done. I guess I'll lean 8
Los Angeles Rams OVER 10.5 (+105)
Schedule being tough, Stafford arm, Super Bowl hangover, etc. lowering this team's value a bit. I think this is one of the easier ones on the board, and an awesome value at plus money. Consider getting a really nice price at 11.5. This roster is absolutely loaded on both sides of the ball. Great receiving corp, nice running attack, reliable and clutch QB on offense, with a great play-caller. On defense you have perhaps the best player in the entire league alongside a dominant defensive line and secondary. Linebacking corp could be a little worse, but don't think that matters much when you have such a nice unit otherwise. This team will be in the mix for the one seed this year I think, granted they fair at least OK in their tougher match-ups.
San Francisco 49ers OVER 10 (-110) -- PLAY OF THE YEAR
Easiest hit across the league IMO. Now this is one you should really consider going to 11.5 with do get +200 or cheaper. If Trey Lance stays healthy and continues to play as well as he's looked so far, this team should have no problem winning 12+ games this season and being right in that 1 seed mix. They may have the best defense in the league, and think we will see Bosa's best season yet. Offensively they are full of talent -- Deebo and Aiyuk will be an incredible duo (Aiyuk especially should shine and take a step forward with Lance at QB instead of Jimmy), great running game, top 2 tight end in the game (probably the best all around because of his run-blocking ability being way better than that of Kelce). They also have one of the best coaches in the game, and have absolutely owned the Rams in the regular season. They also appear to have hit very well on their recent draft picks. This team is loaded, and I expect them to be competing for the Super Bowl with the Rams and Bucs.
Seattle Seahawks OVER 5.5 (-120)
This team clearly has the worst roster in the division, but I think people are really overrating the loss of Russell Wilson. Wilson was a much bigger part of the problem in Seattle than people seem to realize. The question here is whether or not the Seahawks are going to actively tank. If they are, then we are probably fucked. But I have a hard time believing a Pete Carroll coached team -- given his age and his style -- are going to take a season off. I think they will try to compete, and shift to a run-first/defense approach the Carroll has longed for a while. The only problem with that could be that their offensive line may not be able to help them that much, and their defense has some holes obviously. It does look like their O-Line draft picks may be pretty nice though. If they are able to get the run game going, then they have some nice play action threats in Metcalf and Lockett. All signs are pointing to them not tanking this year, and I think they are good enough to at least escape that complete bottom of the league category. They should be able to get to 6.
This is the best division in football IMO
Arizona Cardinals UNDER 8.5 (-110)
Probably my least favorite one on the board. Thought about laying more juice to get 9 or 9.5, but went ahead and just flipped a coin here. This team isn't bad, but I think they are gonna be terrorized by a tough division and some tough out of division opponents. I also don't feel great about Kyler. On one hand, I think he is a tremendous talent, is great at keeping plays alive, has a great arm, etc. On the other, I worry about his ability to stay healthy as the season progresses. I also don't like what the team did in terms of surrounding him with weapons -- think they'll be too reliant on Kyler. The defense could surprise some, but they just seem kind of meh to me. This is probably an 8 or 9 win team when it's all said and done. I guess I'll lean 8
Los Angeles Rams OVER 10.5 (+105)
Schedule being tough, Stafford arm, Super Bowl hangover, etc. lowering this team's value a bit. I think this is one of the easier ones on the board, and an awesome value at plus money. Consider getting a really nice price at 11.5. This roster is absolutely loaded on both sides of the ball. Great receiving corp, nice running attack, reliable and clutch QB on offense, with a great play-caller. On defense you have perhaps the best player in the entire league alongside a dominant defensive line and secondary. Linebacking corp could be a little worse, but don't think that matters much when you have such a nice unit otherwise. This team will be in the mix for the one seed this year I think, granted they fair at least OK in their tougher match-ups.
San Francisco 49ers OVER 10 (-110) -- PLAY OF THE YEAR
Easiest hit across the league IMO. Now this is one you should really consider going to 11.5 with do get +200 or cheaper. If Trey Lance stays healthy and continues to play as well as he's looked so far, this team should have no problem winning 12+ games this season and being right in that 1 seed mix. They may have the best defense in the league, and think we will see Bosa's best season yet. Offensively they are full of talent -- Deebo and Aiyuk will be an incredible duo (Aiyuk especially should shine and take a step forward with Lance at QB instead of Jimmy), great running game, top 2 tight end in the game (probably the best all around because of his run-blocking ability being way better than that of Kelce). They also have one of the best coaches in the game, and have absolutely owned the Rams in the regular season. They also appear to have hit very well on their recent draft picks. This team is loaded, and I expect them to be competing for the Super Bowl with the Rams and Bucs.
Seattle Seahawks OVER 5.5 (-120)
This team clearly has the worst roster in the division, but I think people are really overrating the loss of Russell Wilson. Wilson was a much bigger part of the problem in Seattle than people seem to realize. The question here is whether or not the Seahawks are going to actively tank. If they are, then we are probably fucked. But I have a hard time believing a Pete Carroll coached team -- given his age and his style -- are going to take a season off. I think they will try to compete, and shift to a run-first/defense approach the Carroll has longed for a while. The only problem with that could be that their offensive line may not be able to help them that much, and their defense has some holes obviously. It does look like their O-Line draft picks may be pretty nice though. If they are able to get the run game going, then they have some nice play action threats in Metcalf and Lockett. All signs are pointing to them not tanking this year, and I think they are good enough to at least escape that complete bottom of the league category. They should be able to get to 6.
NFC Summary
Carolina Panthers OVER 6.5 (+105)
Dallas Cowboys OVER 10 (-110)
Green Bay Packers OVER 11 (-110)
Los Angeles Rams OVER 10.5 (+105)
Minnesota Vikings OVER 9 (-130)
San Francisco 49ers OVER 10 (-110) -- PLAY OF THE YEAR
Seattle Seahawks OVER 5.5 (-120)
Washington Commanders OVER 8 (+100)
Arizona Cardinals UNDER 8.5 (-110)
Atlanta Falcons UNDER 5 (-145)
Chicago Bears UNDER 6.5 (-180)
Detroit Lions UNDER 6.5 (+105)
New Orleans Saints UNDER 8.5 (+100)
New York Giants UNDER 7 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 9.5 (+120)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 11.5 (-135)
Carolina Panthers OVER 6.5 (+105)
Dallas Cowboys OVER 10 (-110)
Green Bay Packers OVER 11 (-110)
Los Angeles Rams OVER 10.5 (+105)
Minnesota Vikings OVER 9 (-130)
San Francisco 49ers OVER 10 (-110) -- PLAY OF THE YEAR
Seattle Seahawks OVER 5.5 (-120)
Washington Commanders OVER 8 (+100)
Arizona Cardinals UNDER 8.5 (-110)
Atlanta Falcons UNDER 5 (-145)
Chicago Bears UNDER 6.5 (-180)
Detroit Lions UNDER 6.5 (+105)
New Orleans Saints UNDER 8.5 (+100)
New York Giants UNDER 7 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 9.5 (+120)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 11.5 (-135)
Something to note with the Niners too is that they get the Chiefs and Bucs at home. That's a big deal IMO.
Both Rams games are essentially home games as well
If you consider the Chargers a legitimate contender, then should be worth noting that's a home game too (though it would've been a Niners home game at SoFi as well)
Both Rams games are essentially home games as well
If you consider the Chargers a legitimate contender, then should be worth noting that's a home game too (though it would've been a Niners home game at SoFi as well)
