AFC West
This is a fun division to analyze, and I think one that presents a lot of betting opportunities. The hype that we are seeing for Denver and Los Angeles is almost laughable, and yet presents us with good value on the two teams who actually made the playoffs last year.
This division, if it plays out how I think it will, is a good illustration of why recent past results should always be taken into consideration
Denver Broncos UNDER 10 (-110)
This feels like one of the easier plays this season. An easy starting schedule and Russell Wilson hype has a lot of people liking the over on this, but I love the under. There are a few reasons for this. For one, their division is tough (albeit not as tough as ESPN would tell you). Having to play the Chiefs twice sucks, especially when you can’t beat the Chiefs; the Chargers – though overhyped – match up well with Denver personnel-wise; the Raiders are viewed as the least talented team because of their obvious holes on defense, but they should have no problem scoring points this year and will be a tough out.
The other thing here is they just aren’t a good offensive team. Did anyone watch how anemic they were last year? Like, what really they do besides get Wilson at QB – a Wilson that hasn’t looked great the last couple years (nobody seems to acknowledge that Wilson was a big part of the problem in Seattle). They don’t have good weapons, and that was before losing Tim Patrick (who is not even that good!). I don’t get the hype with this team. Their defense could muster out some wins, but even that side of the ball seems to be getting more praise than is warranted.
This team feels like a non-playoff team. They might finish last in the division. They weren’t a team that was simply a QB away from competing…. They have lots of problems
Kansas City Chiefs OVER 10.5 (-120)
This is a good spot for an over. I think the Chiefs are being undervalued as a result of the hype surrounding the Broncos and Chargers. The ending to Kansas City’s season may leave some concern, combined with Tyreek Hill being gone. But this team is still the strongest top to bottom in the division in my opinion, and they have the best quarterback by a decent margin.
Even with Hill’s absence, there’s a lot to like in their receiving corp and Kelce is probably the best TE in football (debatable with Kittle I guess). Mahomes has nice protection, and I think they should be able to run the mall somewhat effectively. I also like the moves they made defensively, and think they will improve enough on that end to be at least as formidable a team as last year. The schedule has some games, and there isn’t a gimme in the division, but the Chiefs are a team that is basically as experienced as any in those spots and I expect them to get it done. Asking for 11 wins is not that much, I think 12 probably where they end up again
Las Vegas Raiders OVER 8.5 (-130)
This feels like another nice value bet. Like the Chiefs, I think the Raiders are getting a little undervalued because of the AFC West hype. Unlike Denver and LA, these guys actually made the playoffs last season. And they added Devonte frickin Adams – arguably the best receiver in the league. This team has a good suite of weapons in both the passing and running game, and Derek Carr has consistently been an upper tier QB and one of the most underrated in the game. I have full faith that McDaniels is going to be a considerable upgrade coaching-wise, and so we should expect some great things offensively.
It’s a little bit of a different story defensively; there’s no getting around that they have a lot of holes there and definitely are in the bottom half of the league. But I think the strength they have on offense is going to hide that a bit – at least enough to be an over .500 team that is in the playoff mix again.
Los Angeles Chargers UNDER 10 (+120)
Getting plus money to bet the under on another overrated team is nice. We’ve seen this movie before. “Great offseason, Chargers are stacked, best roster in the league, insane defense”, etc. And it always plays out the same. The biggest difference here is that the teams in their division are a little better, which obviously doesn’t bode well. Making splashy big name signings is cool, and their front 4 is nice, but there is still plenty to penetrate in this defense. They will be run all over the place, and we will unfortunately not see the ball in the young QB’s hands enough for it. I like a lot of what they have on offense, but I don’t think the skill position group is much to flaunt about. And the coach is pretty mediocre to crappy, even when looking beyond the gaffe in Week 18 last year.
This is obviously no knock on Herbert, because he really is the best thing this team has to offer. He’s a top 10 QB in this league without a doubt, which is impressive given the lack of experience. But this team looks like a lot of past Chargers teams: paper tiger, but probably one that under-achieves again.
This is a fun division to analyze, and I think one that presents a lot of betting opportunities. The hype that we are seeing for Denver and Los Angeles is almost laughable, and yet presents us with good value on the two teams who actually made the playoffs last year.
This division, if it plays out how I think it will, is a good illustration of why recent past results should always be taken into consideration
Denver Broncos UNDER 10 (-110)
This feels like one of the easier plays this season. An easy starting schedule and Russell Wilson hype has a lot of people liking the over on this, but I love the under. There are a few reasons for this. For one, their division is tough (albeit not as tough as ESPN would tell you). Having to play the Chiefs twice sucks, especially when you can’t beat the Chiefs; the Chargers – though overhyped – match up well with Denver personnel-wise; the Raiders are viewed as the least talented team because of their obvious holes on defense, but they should have no problem scoring points this year and will be a tough out.
The other thing here is they just aren’t a good offensive team. Did anyone watch how anemic they were last year? Like, what really they do besides get Wilson at QB – a Wilson that hasn’t looked great the last couple years (nobody seems to acknowledge that Wilson was a big part of the problem in Seattle). They don’t have good weapons, and that was before losing Tim Patrick (who is not even that good!). I don’t get the hype with this team. Their defense could muster out some wins, but even that side of the ball seems to be getting more praise than is warranted.
This team feels like a non-playoff team. They might finish last in the division. They weren’t a team that was simply a QB away from competing…. They have lots of problems
Kansas City Chiefs OVER 10.5 (-120)
This is a good spot for an over. I think the Chiefs are being undervalued as a result of the hype surrounding the Broncos and Chargers. The ending to Kansas City’s season may leave some concern, combined with Tyreek Hill being gone. But this team is still the strongest top to bottom in the division in my opinion, and they have the best quarterback by a decent margin.
Even with Hill’s absence, there’s a lot to like in their receiving corp and Kelce is probably the best TE in football (debatable with Kittle I guess). Mahomes has nice protection, and I think they should be able to run the mall somewhat effectively. I also like the moves they made defensively, and think they will improve enough on that end to be at least as formidable a team as last year. The schedule has some games, and there isn’t a gimme in the division, but the Chiefs are a team that is basically as experienced as any in those spots and I expect them to get it done. Asking for 11 wins is not that much, I think 12 probably where they end up again
Las Vegas Raiders OVER 8.5 (-130)
This feels like another nice value bet. Like the Chiefs, I think the Raiders are getting a little undervalued because of the AFC West hype. Unlike Denver and LA, these guys actually made the playoffs last season. And they added Devonte frickin Adams – arguably the best receiver in the league. This team has a good suite of weapons in both the passing and running game, and Derek Carr has consistently been an upper tier QB and one of the most underrated in the game. I have full faith that McDaniels is going to be a considerable upgrade coaching-wise, and so we should expect some great things offensively.
It’s a little bit of a different story defensively; there’s no getting around that they have a lot of holes there and definitely are in the bottom half of the league. But I think the strength they have on offense is going to hide that a bit – at least enough to be an over .500 team that is in the playoff mix again.
Los Angeles Chargers UNDER 10 (+120)
Getting plus money to bet the under on another overrated team is nice. We’ve seen this movie before. “Great offseason, Chargers are stacked, best roster in the league, insane defense”, etc. And it always plays out the same. The biggest difference here is that the teams in their division are a little better, which obviously doesn’t bode well. Making splashy big name signings is cool, and their front 4 is nice, but there is still plenty to penetrate in this defense. They will be run all over the place, and we will unfortunately not see the ball in the young QB’s hands enough for it. I like a lot of what they have on offense, but I don’t think the skill position group is much to flaunt about. And the coach is pretty mediocre to crappy, even when looking beyond the gaffe in Week 18 last year.
This is obviously no knock on Herbert, because he really is the best thing this team has to offer. He’s a top 10 QB in this league without a doubt, which is impressive given the lack of experience. But this team looks like a lot of past Chargers teams: paper tiger, but probably one that under-achieves again.
In summation for the AFC:
Baltimore Ravens OVER 9.5 (-160)
Cincinnati Bengals OVER 10 (+100)
Houston Texans OVER 4.5 (+100)
Kansas City Chiefs OVER 10.5 (-120)
Las Vegas Raiders OVER 8.5 (-130)
New England Patriots OVER 8.5 (-125)
New York Jets OVER 5.5 (-175)
Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 7.5 (+100)
Tennessee Titans OVER 9 (-105)
Buffalo Bills UNDER 11.5 (+120)
Cleveland Browns UNDER 8.5 (-140)
Denver Broncos UNDER 10 (-110)
Indianapolis Colts UNDER 10 (-115)
Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 6.5 (-120)
Los Angeles Chargers UNDER 10 (+120)
Miami Dolphins UNDER 9 (-125)
Baltimore Ravens OVER 9.5 (-160)
Cincinnati Bengals OVER 10 (+100)
Houston Texans OVER 4.5 (+100)
Kansas City Chiefs OVER 10.5 (-120)
Las Vegas Raiders OVER 8.5 (-130)
New England Patriots OVER 8.5 (-125)
New York Jets OVER 5.5 (-175)
Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 7.5 (+100)
Tennessee Titans OVER 9 (-105)
Buffalo Bills UNDER 11.5 (+120)
Cleveland Browns UNDER 8.5 (-140)
Denver Broncos UNDER 10 (-110)
Indianapolis Colts UNDER 10 (-115)
Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 6.5 (-120)
Los Angeles Chargers UNDER 10 (+120)
Miami Dolphins UNDER 9 (-125)
TBD. I'm at 10 right now for AFC. I am allocating a budget for totals across league. I'm at 19 teams and a little over 75% of budget. I feel a lot stronger about some than others so may throw down another wager on some of the ones I already have played.
Part of me wants to sprinkle at least a little bit on all 32 just to have interest in all of them, but it really is guessing for a few; some of these numbers are right on IMO. A lot more grey area in NFC for me.
NFC East
This division may be a little more intriguing this year, but I think the Cowboys still have the best roster top to bottom even with their offseason issues. All these teams are pretty flawed so wouldn't be shocked if things are a little shuffled this year. There does to seem to be a little too much hype for a couple teams though.
Dallas Cowboys OVER 10 (-110)
They’re not exactly having a great offseason so there is admittedly some hesitation here. But they still have the best top to bottom roster in the division, even if a little dinged up. They also have the best quarterback and set of skill position players by a decent margin, again even with some changes in the offseason. Dallas has kind of been a joke when it comes to winning pivotal games down the stretch, but they have been absolutely world beaters against their own division. I still think they match up very well with the three others teams, and will have a shot to go 6-0 in the division again. As long as that possibility is alive, I think they are in the hunt to win 11-12 games every year.
New York Giants UNDER 7 (-110)
I think the win total on this team is a little bit inflated. There is this notion out there that Daniel Jones is going to take a step forward, the offensive line is going to be better, and that they will take advantage of an easy schedule. While the schedule definitely favors New York, the other two things are likely not happening. Jones is still one of the worst starting quarterbacks in football, and he has very little upside. The offensive line could be better, but hard to see that coming to fruition with a rookie at left tackle and a lot of new faces, given how dysfunctional this team has been in developing that department. We know that Saquon Barkley is going to get injured at some point this year. This is a bottom feeder, even in a bad conference. 7 wins seems like a stretch. Probably more like 4 or 5.
Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 9.5 (+120)
This is the NFC version of the Colts. A lot of love for a team that has obvious limitations. This team somehow found its way into the playoffs through a weak division and conference at-large, only to confront reality when they played a legit contender. Investing in this team to perform well is betting on Jalen Hurts taking a significant leap this season, which seems more likely not to happen despite the hype coming from camp. They added a couple nice pieces on the offensive end, including AJ Brown. They’re going to need their star power to shine through if they have any chance of hitting double digit wins, as their defense is going to be absolutely destroyed at times. The defense is too crappy to compliment the run-first offense. The schedule is not as flattering as one may think for an NFC East team. This team should not make it to 9 wins.
Washington Commanders OVER 8 (+100)
8 feels like right on the nose here, so I like the value in betting over.
I think Wentz is a considerable upgrade at QB, though many people are down on him. I also think their schedule should be good enough for them to at least get another win. Washington struggled defensively quite a bit last year, but they also had the second-toughest schedule in terms of opponents’ offensive efficiency; by contrast, this season they face the fifth-easiest. Despite Chase Young being gone for about a month, I think the defense will be able to find some success more often this year. This roster isn’t too talented, but I think Rivera is a solid coach, they play in an easy division, and the schedule looks to be a lot more friendly for them last year. It’s easy to forget this team won 7 games last year, and all signs are them pointing to at least being marginally better barring injury setbacks. 8 feels like the right number, but I think they have a shot to lip over. Worth a try.
This division may be a little more intriguing this year, but I think the Cowboys still have the best roster top to bottom even with their offseason issues. All these teams are pretty flawed so wouldn't be shocked if things are a little shuffled this year. There does to seem to be a little too much hype for a couple teams though.
Dallas Cowboys OVER 10 (-110)
They’re not exactly having a great offseason so there is admittedly some hesitation here. But they still have the best top to bottom roster in the division, even if a little dinged up. They also have the best quarterback and set of skill position players by a decent margin, again even with some changes in the offseason. Dallas has kind of been a joke when it comes to winning pivotal games down the stretch, but they have been absolutely world beaters against their own division. I still think they match up very well with the three others teams, and will have a shot to go 6-0 in the division again. As long as that possibility is alive, I think they are in the hunt to win 11-12 games every year.
New York Giants UNDER 7 (-110)
I think the win total on this team is a little bit inflated. There is this notion out there that Daniel Jones is going to take a step forward, the offensive line is going to be better, and that they will take advantage of an easy schedule. While the schedule definitely favors New York, the other two things are likely not happening. Jones is still one of the worst starting quarterbacks in football, and he has very little upside. The offensive line could be better, but hard to see that coming to fruition with a rookie at left tackle and a lot of new faces, given how dysfunctional this team has been in developing that department. We know that Saquon Barkley is going to get injured at some point this year. This is a bottom feeder, even in a bad conference. 7 wins seems like a stretch. Probably more like 4 or 5.
Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 9.5 (+120)
This is the NFC version of the Colts. A lot of love for a team that has obvious limitations. This team somehow found its way into the playoffs through a weak division and conference at-large, only to confront reality when they played a legit contender. Investing in this team to perform well is betting on Jalen Hurts taking a significant leap this season, which seems more likely not to happen despite the hype coming from camp. They added a couple nice pieces on the offensive end, including AJ Brown. They’re going to need their star power to shine through if they have any chance of hitting double digit wins, as their defense is going to be absolutely destroyed at times. The defense is too crappy to compliment the run-first offense. The schedule is not as flattering as one may think for an NFC East team. This team should not make it to 9 wins.
Washington Commanders OVER 8 (+100)
8 feels like right on the nose here, so I like the value in betting over.
I think Wentz is a considerable upgrade at QB, though many people are down on him. I also think their schedule should be good enough for them to at least get another win. Washington struggled defensively quite a bit last year, but they also had the second-toughest schedule in terms of opponents’ offensive efficiency; by contrast, this season they face the fifth-easiest. Despite Chase Young being gone for about a month, I think the defense will be able to find some success more often this year. This roster isn’t too talented, but I think Rivera is a solid coach, they play in an easy division, and the schedule looks to be a lot more friendly for them last year. It’s easy to forget this team won 7 games last year, and all signs are them pointing to at least being marginally better barring injury setbacks. 8 feels like the right number, but I think they have a shot to lip over. Worth a try.
