Ave's Plays

[averick]

#48 win

YTD 22-21-3 -4.05 units

Match ended 1-1.

 

[averick]

Chelsea (-1) - Man. City @ 1.80

Chelsea gaining momentum and i expect them to win against City. Their winning streak will come to an end sooner or later, but at home they will see City off.

Btw mistake in my YTD, it should be 23-22-3 -4.05 units

 

[Primož]

GOOD LUCK:toast:

 

[averick]

GOOD LUCK:toast:

Thanks lets cash our plays!

 

[averick]

#49 win +0.80 units

:money8:

YTD 24-22-3 -3.25 units

I expected Chelsea to win and Drogba to score.. but not by 6-0 lol. But i'm a huge Chelsea fan and i'm happy to see that.

 

[averick]

#50 Naval - Braga @ 1.95

Naval haven't won at home in almost ten games.
Braga have not started with a good away record but i think they will get the job done.

 

[averick]

#51 Crystal Palace - Watford
both teams to score @ 1.75

Both teams have scored in every one of their home and away games respectively. Decided to take this instead of the over.

 

[varkeyboy]

only 1 goal in 60'....hope they get 2 more for ya!

 

[averick]

tks varkeyboy..

#50 lose -1 unit
#51 lose -1 unit

24-24-3 -5.25 units

Very busy with my personal life now.. will be taking a break. Won't be able to do research and place bets on stats for epl and ucl which i have been doing well on (12-6). Might post a play or two that i really like (considering parlay on chelsea/arsenal for carling cup).

My money management has improved slightly but is still extremely poor, when i return i will try to focus solely on stats betting since i am 12-6 up.. plus drop all parlay bets, i lose alot on them but i'm still dumb enough to place those bets.

BOL to everyone

 

[averick]

#52 total fouls Cottbus - Schalke <40.5 @ 1.80

I think there's about 55% chance that this stays under 40.5, past 2 games h2h have stayed under too.

 

[averick]

Final 36 fouls..

#52 win +0.80 units

25-24-3 -4.45 units (13-6 stats bets)

 

[averick]

#53 Wigan - Chelsea
Total fouls <24.5 @ 1.85

Wigan concede rather little fouls at home and Chelsea's foul conuter has dropped greatly since Grant took over. If the line was at 25.5-26.5 i would have slammed 2 units on this, but this line is still abit too low for 2 units even though i think this has a good chance of staying under.. probably 60%.

Can someone here please tell me which books have lines on statistics betting? Thanks..

 

[averick]

#54 Arsenal - Man. Utd.
Total fouls <26 @ 2.00

The line is moving upwards.. had my doubts at 25.5 but when it moved up to 26 i put my money on it.

Alot about tis being a feisty affair now that Arsenal is much stronger than last year. Last season's h2h both went under, but previous years have gone over, when the rivalry was fiercer.

Both these teams have conceded really little fouls compared to the other teams this season, and after taking into account what would be a slightly more aggressive game from both sides as they try to get the edge over one another i still think this stays under.

leaning on total corners <11.5 @ 1.90 for those interested

 

[averick]

#55 Wigan - Chelsea (-1) @ 1.60

#56 yellow cards Blackburn (0) - Liverpool @ 1.80

I don't see Wigan stoppnig Chelsea from winning even though they're at home. After Chelsea's 6-0 thrashing of City we still have to be realistic that such a scoreline will only happen once in awhile. I see Chelsea gaining ground on either Manu or Arsenal as they grind out a win today. Probably 2-0.

Blackburn have averaged 2.3 YC per game, compare that to Liverpool's 1.5. In their past 8 league meetings Liverpool have never received more YC than Blackburn.

That's it for today BOL to all!

 

[averick]

lost the 3 stats bets and won the chelsea one, will update YTD soon.

#57 corners Man. City - Sunderland (+1.5) @ 1.80
#58 fouls Man. City - Sunderland <26.5 @ 1.70
#59 substitution Man. City - Sunderland >5.5 @ 2.50

 

[averick]

#53 lose
#54 lose
#55 win
#56 lose
#57 win
#58 win
#59 lose

3-4 -1.9 units
28-28-3 -6.35 units (15-10 stats bets)

 

[averick]

barcelona - rangers fouls<32.5 @ 1.75
barcelona (-3.5) - rangers corners @ 1.75
Man. Utd. - Dynamo K. fouls <30.5 @ 1.80
Man. Utd. - Dynamo K. subs>5.5 @ 1.65
Man. Utd. - Dynamo K. offsides <5.5 @1.85
Man. Utd. - Dynamo K. YC<3 @ 1.70
offsides Fenerbahce - PSV <5.5 @ 1.75
fouls Fenerbahce - PSV >37.5 @ 1.75
corners Fenerbahce - PSV (+1.5) @ 1.75

 

[averick]

kinda late.. sorry for this

#60 corners Barcelona (-3.5) - Rangers @ 1.75
#61 fouls Barcelona - Rangers <31.5 @ 1.75
#62 yellow cards Man. Utd. - Dynamo K. <3 @ 1.70
#63 fouls Man. Utd. - Dynamo K. <30.5 @ 1.80
#64 substitution Man. Utd. - Dynamo K. @ >5.5 @ 1.65
#65 corners Fenerbahce - PSV (+1.5) @ 1.75
#66 offsides Fenerbahce - PSV <5.5 @ 1.75
#67 possession % Inter - >52 @ 1.85

 

[averick]

here're my leans..

lean barcelona - rangers corners >10.5 @ 1.85
lean lyon (-3)-stuttgart corners @ 2.00
lean posession % Fenerbahce <51.5% @ 1.85
lean Fenerbahce - PSV SOG<10 @ 1.75
lean Fenerbahce (+0.5) - PSV @ 1.85
lean substitutions Inter - CSKA Moscow <5.5 @ 2.10
lean offsides Inter - CSKA Moscow <6.5 @ 1.95
lean shots on goal Inter - CSKA Moscow @ 1.85
lean fouls Inter - CSKA Moscow >37 @ 1.85

 

[averick]

#68 Man. Utd. - Dynamo K. offsides <5.5 @1.85
#69 fouls Fenerbahce - PSV >37.5 @ 1.75

fk i left these 2 out..