Feels like I am capping better than the results. Really only one bad play this week, which was the add on Stanford, everything had a good chance. Lots of close results.
NCAA Football Record:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 4 - 3 -2 = 57.1% = +0.65 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 8 -8 = 50.0% = -0.75 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 12 - 4 - 1 = 75.0% = +7.6 units
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 -2 = 50.0% = -0.2 units
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 2 - 0 = 100% = +2 units
DD Faves (-10 or >) = 0-2 = 0.00% = -2.2 units
Totals OVER - 6 - 6 = 50.0% = -0.6 units
Totals UNDER - 2 -1 = 66.7% = +0.9 units
2X Totals = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units
2X Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -2.2 units
2X Faves = 1-0 = 100.0% = +2 units
Moneyline Faves = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Halftime/Live = 1-0-1 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Overall = 40-27-4 = 59.7% = +11.3 units
Early line wagers:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 1 - 2 - 1 = 33.3% = -1.2 units = CLV ~ +1.5
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 2 - 5 = 20.0% = -3.5 units = CLV ~ +13.5
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 6 - 4 = 60.0% = +1.6 units = CLV ~ +2.0
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 - 6 = 25.0% = -4.6 units = CLV ~ +2.5
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 5 - 3 = 62.5% = +1.7 units = CLV ~ +15.0
DD Faves (-10 or >) - 1 - 1 = 50.0% = -0.1 units = CLV ~ +4.5
Totals OVER - 4 - 1 = 80.0% = +2.9 units = CLV ~ +1.5
Totals UNDER - 1 - 3 = 25.0% = -2.3 units = CLV ~ +5.0
2X Totals OVER - 0-1 = 0.00% = -2.2 units = CLV ~ +3
Overall = 22-26-1 = 45.8% = -9.5 units
Total CLV ~ +48.5
CLV per play = +.99
Playbacks:
All plays = 1 - 3 = 25.0% = -2.3 units
Total CLV ~ +3.0
CLV per play = +.75
Cumulative = 63-56-5 = 52.9% = -0.5 units
NCAA Football Record:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 4 - 3 -2 = 57.1% = +0.65 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 8 -8 = 50.0% = -0.75 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 12 - 4 - 1 = 75.0% = +7.6 units
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 -2 = 50.0% = -0.2 units
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 2 - 0 = 100% = +2 units
DD Faves (-10 or >) = 0-2 = 0.00% = -2.2 units
Totals OVER - 6 - 6 = 50.0% = -0.6 units
Totals UNDER - 2 -1 = 66.7% = +0.9 units
2X Totals = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units
2X Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -2.2 units
2X Faves = 1-0 = 100.0% = +2 units
Moneyline Faves = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Halftime/Live = 1-0-1 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Overall = 40-27-4 = 59.7% = +11.3 units
Early line wagers:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 1 - 2 - 1 = 33.3% = -1.2 units = CLV ~ +1.5
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 2 - 5 = 20.0% = -3.5 units = CLV ~ +13.5
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 6 - 4 = 60.0% = +1.6 units = CLV ~ +2.0
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 - 6 = 25.0% = -4.6 units = CLV ~ +2.5
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 5 - 3 = 62.5% = +1.7 units = CLV ~ +15.0
DD Faves (-10 or >) - 1 - 1 = 50.0% = -0.1 units = CLV ~ +4.5
Totals OVER - 4 - 1 = 80.0% = +2.9 units = CLV ~ +1.5
Totals UNDER - 1 - 3 = 25.0% = -2.3 units = CLV ~ +5.0
2X Totals OVER - 0-1 = 0.00% = -2.2 units = CLV ~ +3
Overall = 22-26-1 = 45.8% = -9.5 units
Total CLV ~ +48.5
CLV per play = +.99
Playbacks:
All plays = 1 - 3 = 25.0% = -2.3 units
Total CLV ~ +3.0
CLV per play = +.75
Cumulative = 63-56-5 = 52.9% = -0.5 units
Lines were on the move, we've already been after it for Week #8. This week I made some early line wagers with the specific intent of playing back at key numbers, we'll see how it shakes out.
#317 Florida St. +3.5 (just seeing this line is an abomination, if you just woke up from a 6 month coma, you'd think someone was telling a bad joke)
#322 BYU -7 (-125)
#390 Nevada +3.5 (expecting this hook to disappear, lost line value from LW but Nevada has been good at home)
#325 Wake Forest/UConn Over 57 (if betting patterns hold, expect 2 different groups to hit this total through the week)
#327 Army -15.5 (doesn't matter if I like it or not, should be able to play back +18.5 or better)
#420 Indiana -6 (doesn't matter if I like it or not, Indiana off a bye and this line should drive up to and potentially through the 7)
#344 Charlotte/Navy Under 56.5 (Charlotte plays slow and had bye week to prep for option. Navy is unbeaten and has Notre Dame on deck)
#345 Alabama -2 (If you haven't noticed, I think Tennessee is over-rated. Bama owns them and the Tide D needs a wake-up game, this is it)
#397 Houston +7.5
#408 FAU/UTSA Under 56
#317 Florida St. +3.5 (just seeing this line is an abomination, if you just woke up from a 6 month coma, you'd think someone was telling a bad joke)
#322 BYU -7 (-125)
#390 Nevada +3.5 (expecting this hook to disappear, lost line value from LW but Nevada has been good at home)
#325 Wake Forest/UConn Over 57 (if betting patterns hold, expect 2 different groups to hit this total through the week)
#327 Army -15.5 (doesn't matter if I like it or not, should be able to play back +18.5 or better)
#420 Indiana -6 (doesn't matter if I like it or not, Indiana off a bye and this line should drive up to and potentially through the 7)
#344 Charlotte/Navy Under 56.5 (Charlotte plays slow and had bye week to prep for option. Navy is unbeaten and has Notre Dame on deck)
#345 Alabama -2 (If you haven't noticed, I think Tennessee is over-rated. Bama owns them and the Tide D needs a wake-up game, this is it)
#397 Houston +7.5
#408 FAU/UTSA Under 56
LW's early line wager on USF was cancelled because the game was moved to a different day than listed when I made the wager. Made a small accounting error as well, so went back and double-checked everything. The below is correct.
NCAA Football Record:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 4 - 3 -2 = 57.1% = +0.65 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 8 -8 = 50.0% = -0.75 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 12 - 4 - 1 = 75.0% = +7.6 units
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 -2 = 50.0% = -0.1 units
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 2 - 0 = 100% = +2 units
DD Faves (-10 or >) = 0-2 = 0.00% = -2.2 units
Totals OVER - 6 - 6 = 50.0% = -0.6 units
Totals UNDER - 2 -1 = 66.7% = +0.9 units
2X Totals = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units
2X Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -2.2 units
2X Faves = 1-0 = 100.0% = +2 units
Moneyline Faves = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Halftime/Live = 1-0-1 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Overall = 40-27-4 = 59.7% = +11.3 units
Early line wagers:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 1 - 2 - 1 = 33.3% = -1.2 units = CLV ~ +1.5
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 2 - 5 = 20.0% = -3.5 units = CLV ~ +13.5
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 6 - 4 = 60.0% = +1.6 units = CLV ~ +2.0
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 - 6 = 25.0% = -4.6 units = CLV ~ +2.5
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 5 - 3 = 62.5% = +1.7 units = CLV ~ +15.0
DD Faves (-10 or >) - 1 - 1 = 50.0% = -0.1 units = CLV ~ +4.5
Totals OVER - 4 - 1 = 80.0% = +2.9 units = CLV ~ +1.5
Totals UNDER - 1 - 3 = 25.0% = -2.3 units = CLV ~ +5.0
2X Totals OVER - 0-1 = 0.00% = -2.2 units = CLV ~ +3
Overall = 22-26-1 = 45.8% = -7.7 units
Total CLV ~ +48.5
CLV per play = +.99
Playbacks:
All plays = 1 - 3 = 25.0% = -2.3 units
Total CLV ~ +3.0
CLV per play = +.75
Cumulative = 63-56-5 = 52.9% = +1.3 units
NCAA Football Record:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 4 - 3 -2 = 57.1% = +0.65 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 8 -8 = 50.0% = -0.75 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 12 - 4 - 1 = 75.0% = +7.6 units
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 -2 = 50.0% = -0.1 units
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 2 - 0 = 100% = +2 units
DD Faves (-10 or >) = 0-2 = 0.00% = -2.2 units
Totals OVER - 6 - 6 = 50.0% = -0.6 units
Totals UNDER - 2 -1 = 66.7% = +0.9 units
2X Totals = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units
2X Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -2.2 units
2X Faves = 1-0 = 100.0% = +2 units
Moneyline Faves = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Halftime/Live = 1-0-1 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Overall = 40-27-4 = 59.7% = +11.3 units
Early line wagers:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 1 - 2 - 1 = 33.3% = -1.2 units = CLV ~ +1.5
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 2 - 5 = 20.0% = -3.5 units = CLV ~ +13.5
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 6 - 4 = 60.0% = +1.6 units = CLV ~ +2.0
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 - 6 = 25.0% = -4.6 units = CLV ~ +2.5
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 5 - 3 = 62.5% = +1.7 units = CLV ~ +15.0
DD Faves (-10 or >) - 1 - 1 = 50.0% = -0.1 units = CLV ~ +4.5
Totals OVER - 4 - 1 = 80.0% = +2.9 units = CLV ~ +1.5
Totals UNDER - 1 - 3 = 25.0% = -2.3 units = CLV ~ +5.0
2X Totals OVER - 0-1 = 0.00% = -2.2 units = CLV ~ +3
Overall = 22-26-1 = 45.8% = -7.7 units
Total CLV ~ +48.5
CLV per play = +.99
Playbacks:
All plays = 1 - 3 = 25.0% = -2.3 units
Total CLV ~ +3.0
CLV per play = +.75
Cumulative = 63-56-5 = 52.9% = +1.3 units
For 10-15:
#306 New Mexico St. +11.5
Not sure where this line is going, but this number is enough to get me involved. I made the number for the contest just +7.8, so we gain some substantial line value. NMSU is not a good team and they were embarrassed LW vs Jacksonville St. The Aggies had a bye prior to that game and my guess is that HC Sanchez spent part of that off-week prepping for this winnable game rather than that tough road trip. Aggies HC Sanchez can't coach and I like the home team here in spite of him. La. Tech has played one of the weakest schedules in the country (#155) and the trip to Las Cruces is not an easy one. La. Tech HC Cumbie can't coach either proven by his team going just 1-14 SU and 4-11 ATS in away games under his guidance, including losing outright both times his team has been installed as a road fave. This carries over a concerning trend from his predecessor where the Bulldogs just don't play well away from Ruston, LA. In NMSU's three home games TY, they badly outplayed undefeated Liberty in a 6 point loss, put up 474 yards of offense vs New Mexico in a 10 pt loss, and beat FCS SE Missouri St. Being a double-digit conference road favorite is unfamiliar territory for a Cumbie coached La. Tech team as is traveling long distance for a Tuesday night game. NMSU's terrible performance on TV last week probably got us some line value in this one and we'll take it in a game that the Aggies should be able to compete in.
#306 New Mexico St. +11.5
Not sure where this line is going, but this number is enough to get me involved. I made the number for the contest just +7.8, so we gain some substantial line value. NMSU is not a good team and they were embarrassed LW vs Jacksonville St. The Aggies had a bye prior to that game and my guess is that HC Sanchez spent part of that off-week prepping for this winnable game rather than that tough road trip. Aggies HC Sanchez can't coach and I like the home team here in spite of him. La. Tech has played one of the weakest schedules in the country (#155) and the trip to Las Cruces is not an easy one. La. Tech HC Cumbie can't coach either proven by his team going just 1-14 SU and 4-11 ATS in away games under his guidance, including losing outright both times his team has been installed as a road fave. This carries over a concerning trend from his predecessor where the Bulldogs just don't play well away from Ruston, LA. In NMSU's three home games TY, they badly outplayed undefeated Liberty in a 6 point loss, put up 474 yards of offense vs New Mexico in a 10 pt loss, and beat FCS SE Missouri St. Being a double-digit conference road favorite is unfamiliar territory for a Cumbie coached La. Tech team as is traveling long distance for a Tuesday night game. NMSU's terrible performance on TV last week probably got us some line value in this one and we'll take it in a game that the Aggies should be able to compete in.
#304 Kennesaw St./MTSU Over 50.5
No arguing that Kennesaw St. is a bad team. However, the Owls enter off a bye and this is going to be, perhaps, their best chance to win a game this season. This MTSU defense is bad and the Owls know it. I'd expect an all-out effort from the players and coaches TW, probably including some trick plays and going for it on 4th down more than normal. The Owls lack talent and during their bye week last week, they held internal auditions for anyone interested in playing QB. I'd expect more than one player to take a snap for Kennesaw St. but that is probably a good thing for them. The MTSU D is poor but we probably haven't seen what their O is capable of as they've played a decently tough schedule (#65) that includes some solid D's (Ole Miss, Duke, Memphis), they should welcome the step down in competition here. Kennesaw St. holds the special teams advantage which should help them to score vs a weak D and special teams, and on the MTSU side, they should simply be able to line up, run their offense, and find success. MTSU has been demolished for 5 consecutive games and I think the coaches will want some offensive success for confidence as they move deeper into conference play. Neither team is talented, and this number might seem a tad high, but I think the situation favors a higher scoring game. I made the number 49.5 so I'm willing to back the setup at a fair price.
No arguing that Kennesaw St. is a bad team. However, the Owls enter off a bye and this is going to be, perhaps, their best chance to win a game this season. This MTSU defense is bad and the Owls know it. I'd expect an all-out effort from the players and coaches TW, probably including some trick plays and going for it on 4th down more than normal. The Owls lack talent and during their bye week last week, they held internal auditions for anyone interested in playing QB. I'd expect more than one player to take a snap for Kennesaw St. but that is probably a good thing for them. The MTSU D is poor but we probably haven't seen what their O is capable of as they've played a decently tough schedule (#65) that includes some solid D's (Ole Miss, Duke, Memphis), they should welcome the step down in competition here. Kennesaw St. holds the special teams advantage which should help them to score vs a weak D and special teams, and on the MTSU side, they should simply be able to line up, run their offense, and find success. MTSU has been demolished for 5 consecutive games and I think the coaches will want some offensive success for confidence as they move deeper into conference play. Neither team is talented, and this number might seem a tad high, but I think the situation favors a higher scoring game. I made the number 49.5 so I'm willing to back the setup at a fair price.
Last time out, one great bet, one terrible bet. We move on.
NCAA Football Record:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 4 - 3 -2 = 57.1% = +0.65 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 8 -8 = 50.0% = -0.75 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 13 - 4 - 1 = 76.5% = +8.6 units
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 -2 = 50.0% = -0.1 units
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 2 - 0 = 100% = +2 units
DD Faves (-10 or >) = 0-2 = 0.00% = -2.2 units
Totals OVER - 6 - 7 = 46.2% = -1.7 units
Totals UNDER - 2 -1 = 66.7% = +0.9 units
2X Totals = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units
2X Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -2.2 units
2X Faves = 1-0 = 100.0% = +2 units
Moneyline Faves = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Halftime/Live = 1-0-1 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Overall = 41-28-4 = 59.4% = +11.2 units
Early line wagers:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 1 - 2 - 1 = 33.3% = -1.2 units = CLV ~ +1.5
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 2 - 5 = 20.0% = -3.5 units = CLV ~ +13.5
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 6 - 4 = 60.0% = +1.6 units = CLV ~ +2.0
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 - 6 = 25.0% = -4.6 units = CLV ~ +2.5
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 5 - 3 = 62.5% = +1.7 units = CLV ~ +15.0
DD Faves (-10 or >) - 1 - 1 = 50.0% = -0.1 units = CLV ~ +4.5
Totals OVER - 4 - 1 = 80.0% = +2.9 units = CLV ~ +1.5
Totals UNDER - 1 - 3 = 25.0% = -2.3 units = CLV ~ +5.0
2X Totals OVER - 0-1 = 0.00% = -2.2 units = CLV ~ +3
Overall = 22-26-1 = 45.8% = -7.7 units
Total CLV ~ +48.5
CLV per play = +.99
Playbacks:
All plays = 1 - 3 = 25.0% = -2.3 units
Total CLV ~ +3.0
CLV per play = +.75
Cumulative = 64-57-5 = 52.9% = +1.2 units
For 10-17:
#313 Boston College +10 (-131)
NCAA Football Record:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 4 - 3 -2 = 57.1% = +0.65 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 8 -8 = 50.0% = -0.75 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 13 - 4 - 1 = 76.5% = +8.6 units
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 -2 = 50.0% = -0.1 units
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 2 - 0 = 100% = +2 units
DD Faves (-10 or >) = 0-2 = 0.00% = -2.2 units
Totals OVER - 6 - 7 = 46.2% = -1.7 units
Totals UNDER - 2 -1 = 66.7% = +0.9 units
2X Totals = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units
2X Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -2.2 units
2X Faves = 1-0 = 100.0% = +2 units
Moneyline Faves = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Halftime/Live = 1-0-1 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Overall = 41-28-4 = 59.4% = +11.2 units
Early line wagers:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 1 - 2 - 1 = 33.3% = -1.2 units = CLV ~ +1.5
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 2 - 5 = 20.0% = -3.5 units = CLV ~ +13.5
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 6 - 4 = 60.0% = +1.6 units = CLV ~ +2.0
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 - 6 = 25.0% = -4.6 units = CLV ~ +2.5
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 5 - 3 = 62.5% = +1.7 units = CLV ~ +15.0
DD Faves (-10 or >) - 1 - 1 = 50.0% = -0.1 units = CLV ~ +4.5
Totals OVER - 4 - 1 = 80.0% = +2.9 units = CLV ~ +1.5
Totals UNDER - 1 - 3 = 25.0% = -2.3 units = CLV ~ +5.0
2X Totals OVER - 0-1 = 0.00% = -2.2 units = CLV ~ +3
Overall = 22-26-1 = 45.8% = -7.7 units
Total CLV ~ +48.5
CLV per play = +.99
Playbacks:
All plays = 1 - 3 = 25.0% = -2.3 units
Total CLV ~ +3.0
CLV per play = +.75
Cumulative = 64-57-5 = 52.9% = +1.2 units
For 10-17:
#313 Boston College +10 (-131)
#390 Fresno St./Nevada Over 49.5
Fresno St. has ben pretty solid on offense for most of the season and the Nevada D leaves much to be desired. The Wolfpack have been solid at home and great as underdogs TY (it's why we bet them as a part of our early line wagers) but they got an undeserved win LW vs Oregon St. in a game where they were vastly outgained. I made the number for this game 52.5 and I'm glad to grab the line value. I expect the Bulldogs to have offensive success vs an exploitable Wolfpack D, while the home crowd and positive situation for the Nevada offense should help them do enough to drive this game Over the total and make the game very competitive.
Fresno St. has ben pretty solid on offense for most of the season and the Nevada D leaves much to be desired. The Wolfpack have been solid at home and great as underdogs TY (it's why we bet them as a part of our early line wagers) but they got an undeserved win LW vs Oregon St. in a game where they were vastly outgained. I made the number for this game 52.5 and I'm glad to grab the line value. I expect the Bulldogs to have offensive success vs an exploitable Wolfpack D, while the home crowd and positive situation for the Nevada offense should help them do enough to drive this game Over the total and make the game very competitive.
Updated through 10-20-24:
The CLV issue I've had since I began to post here continues to be troublesome and is nearing a significant deviation from expected results. Last week alone I made 10 early line wagers, beating the closing number on 8 of 10 wagers. Results 2-8 ATS including going just 1-2 on games that moved at least 3 points my way.
NCAA Football Record:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 4 - 6 -2 = 40.0% = -2.65 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 9 -9 = 50.0% = -1.0 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 14 - 6 - 1 = 70.0% = +7.4 units
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 -2 = 50.0% = -0.1 units
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 2 - 0 = 100% = +2 units
DD Faves (-10 or >) = 0-2 = 0.00% = -2.2 units
Totals OVER - 6 - 9 = 40.0% = -3.9 units
Totals UNDER - 2 -1 = 66.7% = +0.9 units
2X Totals = 1 -0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units
2X Dogs = 1-1 = 50.0% = -0.2 units
2X Faves = 1-0 = 100.0% = +2 units
Moneyline Faves = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Halftime/Live = 2-0-1 = 100.0% = +2.0 units
Overall = 44-36-4 = 55.0% = +7.25 units
Early line wagers:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 2 - 3 - 1 = 40.0% = -1.3 units = CLV ~ +3.5
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 2 - 6 = 25.0% = -4.6 units = CLV ~ +16.5
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 6 - 4 = 60.0% = +1.6 units = CLV ~ +2.0
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 - 7 = 22.2% = -5.7 units = CLV ~ +4.0
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 6 - 4 = 60.0% = +1.45 units = CLV ~ +17
DD Faves (-10 or >) - 2 - 1 = 66.7% = +0.9 units = CLV ~ +7.5
Totals OVER - 4 - 2 = 66.7% = +1.8 units = CLV ~ +0.5
Totals UNDER - 1 - 5 = 16.7% = -4.5units = CLV ~ +7.5
2X Totals OVER - 0-1 = 0.00% = -2.2 units = CLV ~ +3
Overall = 25-33-1 = 43.1% = -12.55 units
Total CLV ~ +61.5
CLV per play = +1.04
Playbacks:
All plays = 1 - 3 = 25.0% = -2.3 units
Total CLV ~ +3.0
CLV per play = +.75
Cumulative = 70-72-5 = 49.3% = -7.6
The CLV issue I've had since I began to post here continues to be troublesome and is nearing a significant deviation from expected results. Last week alone I made 10 early line wagers, beating the closing number on 8 of 10 wagers. Results 2-8 ATS including going just 1-2 on games that moved at least 3 points my way.
NCAA Football Record:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 4 - 6 -2 = 40.0% = -2.65 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 9 -9 = 50.0% = -1.0 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 14 - 6 - 1 = 70.0% = +7.4 units
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 -2 = 50.0% = -0.1 units
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 2 - 0 = 100% = +2 units
DD Faves (-10 or >) = 0-2 = 0.00% = -2.2 units
Totals OVER - 6 - 9 = 40.0% = -3.9 units
Totals UNDER - 2 -1 = 66.7% = +0.9 units
2X Totals = 1 -0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units
2X Dogs = 1-1 = 50.0% = -0.2 units
2X Faves = 1-0 = 100.0% = +2 units
Moneyline Faves = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Halftime/Live = 2-0-1 = 100.0% = +2.0 units
Overall = 44-36-4 = 55.0% = +7.25 units
Early line wagers:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 2 - 3 - 1 = 40.0% = -1.3 units = CLV ~ +3.5
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 2 - 6 = 25.0% = -4.6 units = CLV ~ +16.5
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 6 - 4 = 60.0% = +1.6 units = CLV ~ +2.0
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 - 7 = 22.2% = -5.7 units = CLV ~ +4.0
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 6 - 4 = 60.0% = +1.45 units = CLV ~ +17
DD Faves (-10 or >) - 2 - 1 = 66.7% = +0.9 units = CLV ~ +7.5
Totals OVER - 4 - 2 = 66.7% = +1.8 units = CLV ~ +0.5
Totals UNDER - 1 - 5 = 16.7% = -4.5units = CLV ~ +7.5
2X Totals OVER - 0-1 = 0.00% = -2.2 units = CLV ~ +3
Overall = 25-33-1 = 43.1% = -12.55 units
Total CLV ~ +61.5
CLV per play = +1.04
Playbacks:
All plays = 1 - 3 = 25.0% = -2.3 units
Total CLV ~ +3.0
CLV per play = +.75
Cumulative = 70-72-5 = 49.3% = -7.6
