Sluka was not the bad man in this situation , he was paying his own room and board and only received 3000 so far this year for everything, he was told by the offensive cord he would get 100,000 he did not ask for more, he was asking when he would receive something and the head coach told him , I did not make that promise to you so it is not valid, he did not bitch, he wished his team the best of luck and before playing a 4th game to where he could not be red shirted he chose to sit out and see what opens up and saving him a year of playing time...I find it odd that an offensive coord would not mention to the head coach about what he promised, team is 3-0 and apparently they expected this kid to just wait, I think he did the right thing for his career and it was not about him not wanting to be there, he turned down a lot more money in the Big 10 and ACC and wanted to play at UNLV this is not about Sluka none of us would have kept playing or if it were our son we would have advised the same thing
Sometimes you get them right.
Schiano can really coach. Rutgers played a great first half and it won them the game. Some critical errors on special teams for Washington did them in, 2 makeable missed FG's and a penalty on a missed FG by Rutgers that the Scarlet Knights then turned into a TD. Schiano pulled the right strings. Not too worried about the box score as 100 of Washington's offensive yards came on the last two drives when Rutgers was up 11 and trying to simply run the clock out with their quality D.
NCAA Football Record:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 2 - 1 -2 = 66.7% = +.85 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 3 -6 = 33.3% = -3.65 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 7 - 2 - 1 = 77.8% = +4.8 units
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 0 -1 = 00.0% = -1.1 units
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 1 - 0 = 100% = +1 units
Totals OVER - 2 - 5 = 28.6% = -3.5 units
Totals UNDER - 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units
2X Totals = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units
2X Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -2.2 units
Moneyline Faves = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Halftime/Live = 0-0-1 = 0.00% = 0.0 units
Overall = 19-16 -4 = 54.3% = +1.15 units
Early line wagers:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 1 - 2 - 1 = 33.3% = -1.2 units = CLV ~ +1.5
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 2 - 3 = 40.0% = -1.3 units = CLV ~ +6.5
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.2 units = CLV ~ -2.0
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 1 - 6 = 14.3% = -5.6 units = CLV ~ +0.5
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 3 - 2 = 60.0% = +0.8 units = CLV ~ +9.0
DD Faves (-10 or >) - 0 - 1 = 0.00% = -1.1 units = CLV ~ -.5
Totals OVER - 2 - 0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units = CLV ~ -1.0
Totals UNDER - 1 - 1 = 0.0% = -0.1 units = CLV ~ +4.0
Overall = 12-17-1 = 41.4% = -6.7 units
Total CLV ~ +18
CLV per play = +.62
Playbacks:
All plays = 1 - 2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units
Total CLV ~ +2.5
CLV per play = +.83
Cumulative = 32-35-5 = 47.8% = -6.75 units
Schiano can really coach. Rutgers played a great first half and it won them the game. Some critical errors on special teams for Washington did them in, 2 makeable missed FG's and a penalty on a missed FG by Rutgers that the Scarlet Knights then turned into a TD. Schiano pulled the right strings. Not too worried about the box score as 100 of Washington's offensive yards came on the last two drives when Rutgers was up 11 and trying to simply run the clock out with their quality D.
NCAA Football Record:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 2 - 1 -2 = 66.7% = +.85 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 3 -6 = 33.3% = -3.65 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 7 - 2 - 1 = 77.8% = +4.8 units
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 0 -1 = 00.0% = -1.1 units
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 1 - 0 = 100% = +1 units
Totals OVER - 2 - 5 = 28.6% = -3.5 units
Totals UNDER - 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units
2X Totals = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units
2X Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -2.2 units
Moneyline Faves = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Halftime/Live = 0-0-1 = 0.00% = 0.0 units
Overall = 19-16 -4 = 54.3% = +1.15 units
Early line wagers:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 1 - 2 - 1 = 33.3% = -1.2 units = CLV ~ +1.5
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 2 - 3 = 40.0% = -1.3 units = CLV ~ +6.5
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 2 - 2 = 50.0% = -0.2 units = CLV ~ -2.0
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 1 - 6 = 14.3% = -5.6 units = CLV ~ +0.5
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 3 - 2 = 60.0% = +0.8 units = CLV ~ +9.0
DD Faves (-10 or >) - 0 - 1 = 0.00% = -1.1 units = CLV ~ -.5
Totals OVER - 2 - 0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units = CLV ~ -1.0
Totals UNDER - 1 - 1 = 0.0% = -0.1 units = CLV ~ +4.0
Overall = 12-17-1 = 41.4% = -6.7 units
Total CLV ~ +18
CLV per play = +.62
Playbacks:
All plays = 1 - 2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units
Total CLV ~ +2.5
CLV per play = +.83
Cumulative = 32-35-5 = 47.8% = -6.75 units
Have to rethink the early line wagers again this week as my CLV continues to pay no dividends. Doing well with my analyzed plays and being drug down by earl line wagers with tons of value that are not winning.
NCAA Football Record:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 2 - 1 -2 = 66.7% = +.85 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 4 -6 = 40.0% = -2.65 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 7 - 2 - 1 = 77.8% = +4.8 units
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 0 -1 = 00.0% = -1.1 units
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 2 - 0 = 100% = +2 units
DD Faves (-10 or >) = 0-1 = 0.00% = -1.1 units
Totals OVER - 2 - 5 = 28.6% = -3.5 units
Totals UNDER - 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units
2X Totals = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units
2X Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -2.2 units
2X Faves = 1-0 = 100.0% = +2 units
Moneyline Faves = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Halftime/Live = 1-0-1 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Overall = 23-17 -4 = 57.5% = +5.1 units
Early line wagers:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 1 - 2 - 1 = 33.3% = -1.2 units = CLV ~ +1.5
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 2 - 5 = 20.0% = -3.5 units = CLV ~ +13.5
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 3 - 2 = 60.0% = +0.8 units = CLV ~ +0.0
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 1 - 6 = 14.3% = -5.6 units = CLV ~ +0.5
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 3 - 2 = 60.0% = +0.8 units = CLV ~ +9.0
DD Faves (-10 or >) - 0 - 1 = 0.00% = -1.1 units = CLV ~ -.5
Totals OVER - 2 - 0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units = CLV ~ -1.0
Totals UNDER - 1 - 2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units = CLV ~ +5.0
2X Totals OVER - 0-1 = 0.00% = -2.2 units = CLV ~ +3
Overall = 13-21-1 = 38.2% = -10.2 units
Total CLV ~ +31
CLV per play = +.91
Playbacks:
All plays = 1 - 2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units
Total CLV ~ +2.5
CLV per play = +.83
Cumulative = 37-40-5 = 48.0% = -6.3 units
NCAA Football Record:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 2 - 1 -2 = 66.7% = +.85 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 4 -6 = 40.0% = -2.65 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 7 - 2 - 1 = 77.8% = +4.8 units
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 0 -1 = 00.0% = -1.1 units
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 2 - 0 = 100% = +2 units
DD Faves (-10 or >) = 0-1 = 0.00% = -1.1 units
Totals OVER - 2 - 5 = 28.6% = -3.5 units
Totals UNDER - 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units
2X Totals = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units
2X Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -2.2 units
2X Faves = 1-0 = 100.0% = +2 units
Moneyline Faves = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Halftime/Live = 1-0-1 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Overall = 23-17 -4 = 57.5% = +5.1 units
Early line wagers:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 1 - 2 - 1 = 33.3% = -1.2 units = CLV ~ +1.5
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 2 - 5 = 20.0% = -3.5 units = CLV ~ +13.5
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 3 - 2 = 60.0% = +0.8 units = CLV ~ +0.0
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 1 - 6 = 14.3% = -5.6 units = CLV ~ +0.5
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 3 - 2 = 60.0% = +0.8 units = CLV ~ +9.0
DD Faves (-10 or >) - 0 - 1 = 0.00% = -1.1 units = CLV ~ -.5
Totals OVER - 2 - 0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units = CLV ~ -1.0
Totals UNDER - 1 - 2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units = CLV ~ +5.0
2X Totals OVER - 0-1 = 0.00% = -2.2 units = CLV ~ +3
Overall = 13-21-1 = 38.2% = -10.2 units
Total CLV ~ +31
CLV per play = +.91
Playbacks:
All plays = 1 - 2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units
Total CLV ~ +2.5
CLV per play = +.83
Cumulative = 37-40-5 = 48.0% = -6.3 units
Wow, those service academy lines were hammered upon their release. Seems now that you can just bet Indiana at the opener because you know the line is going up. Going to give the early line wagering a few more weeks, eventually the CLV has to provide me some benefit. Here's what I got so far:
#371 Army -9
#371 Army/Tulsa Over 50.5
#328 South Carolina +10
#328 Ole Miss/S. Carolina Over 51.5
#338 Marshall -1.5
#350 Vanderbilt +25
#398 Hawaii/SDSU Under 47.5
#371 Army -9
#371 Army/Tulsa Over 50.5
#328 South Carolina +10
#328 Ole Miss/S. Carolina Over 51.5
#338 Marshall -1.5
#350 Vanderbilt +25
#398 Hawaii/SDSU Under 47.5
Somebody tried to rope-a-dope the Hawaii/SDSU total. I was able to get as much as Under 51. It's settled back down now at 48.5 but , considering the questionable line movement, I would expect the number to collapse on gameday. We'll see.
For 10-4:
#311 Michigan St. +23.5
#367 Syracuse +6
#367 Syracuse +7.5 (-150) (MGM)
For 10-4:
#311 Michigan St. +23.5
#367 Syracuse +6
#367 Syracuse +7.5 (-150) (MGM)
Seems we don't get that many of them but we got one back for the good guys on Friday. No way Michigan St. deserved to cover and to kick a FG down 24 with 25 seconds to play seems odd? I'll take it.
NCAA Football Record:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 2 - 1 -2 = 66.7% = +.85 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 6 -6 = 50.0% = -0.65 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 8 - 2 - 1 = 80.0% = +5.8 units
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 0 -1 = 00.0% = -1.1 units
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 2 - 0 = 100% = +2 units
DD Faves (-10 or >) = 0-1 = 0.00% = -1.1 units
Totals OVER - 2 - 5 = 28.6% = -3.5 units
Totals UNDER - 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units
2X Totals = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units
2X Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -2.2 units
2X Faves = 1-0 = 100.0% = +2 units
Moneyline Faves = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Halftime/Live = 1-0-1 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Overall = 26-17 -4 = 60.5% = +8.1 units
Early line wagers:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 1 - 2 - 1 = 33.3% = -1.2 units = CLV ~ +1.5
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 2 - 5 = 20.0% = -3.5 units = CLV ~ +13.5
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 3 - 2 = 60.0% = +0.8 units = CLV ~ +0.0
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 1 - 6 = 14.3% = -5.6 units = CLV ~ +0.5
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 3 - 2 = 60.0% = +0.8 units = CLV ~ +9.0
DD Faves (-10 or >) - 0 - 1 = 0.00% = -1.1 units = CLV ~ -.5
Totals OVER - 2 - 0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units = CLV ~ -1.0
Totals UNDER - 1 - 2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units = CLV ~ +5.0
2X Totals OVER - 0-1 = 0.00% = -2.2 units = CLV ~ +3
Overall = 13-21-1 = 38.2% = -10.2 units
Total CLV ~ +31
CLV per play = +.91
Playbacks:
All plays = 1 - 2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units
Total CLV ~ +2.5
CLV per play = +.83
Cumulative = 40-40-5 = 50.0% = -3.3 units
NCAA Football Record:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 2 - 1 -2 = 66.7% = +.85 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 6 -6 = 50.0% = -0.65 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 8 - 2 - 1 = 80.0% = +5.8 units
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 0 -1 = 00.0% = -1.1 units
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 2 - 0 = 100% = +2 units
DD Faves (-10 or >) = 0-1 = 0.00% = -1.1 units
Totals OVER - 2 - 5 = 28.6% = -3.5 units
Totals UNDER - 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units
2X Totals = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units
2X Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -2.2 units
2X Faves = 1-0 = 100.0% = +2 units
Moneyline Faves = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Halftime/Live = 1-0-1 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Overall = 26-17 -4 = 60.5% = +8.1 units
Early line wagers:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 1 - 2 - 1 = 33.3% = -1.2 units = CLV ~ +1.5
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 2 - 5 = 20.0% = -3.5 units = CLV ~ +13.5
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 3 - 2 = 60.0% = +0.8 units = CLV ~ +0.0
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 1 - 6 = 14.3% = -5.6 units = CLV ~ +0.5
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 3 - 2 = 60.0% = +0.8 units = CLV ~ +9.0
DD Faves (-10 or >) - 0 - 1 = 0.00% = -1.1 units = CLV ~ -.5
Totals OVER - 2 - 0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units = CLV ~ -1.0
Totals UNDER - 1 - 2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units = CLV ~ +5.0
2X Totals OVER - 0-1 = 0.00% = -2.2 units = CLV ~ +3
Overall = 13-21-1 = 38.2% = -10.2 units
Total CLV ~ +31
CLV per play = +.91
Playbacks:
All plays = 1 - 2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units
Total CLV ~ +2.5
CLV per play = +.83
Cumulative = 40-40-5 = 50.0% = -3.3 units
Solid week in college football. Had an accounting error last week it should have been -11.2 units for the early wagers not -10.2. It's corrected this week and the results are accurate. Now averaging a sturdy 1.0 ppg in CLV which should be leading to better results. Went 4-3 this week on the early line wagers, so hopefully those will tick up for us.
NCAA Football Record:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 3 - 1 -2 = 75.0% = +1.85 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 6 -7 = 46.2% = -1.65 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 10 - 2 - 1 = 83.3% = +7.8 units
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 -1 = 66.7% = +0.9 units
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 2 - 0 = 100% = +2 units
DD Faves (-10 or >) = 0-2 = 0.00% = -2.2 units
Totals OVER - 3 - 5 = 37.5% = -2.5 units
Totals UNDER - 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units
2X Totals = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units
2X Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -2.2 units
2X Faves = 1-0 = 100.0% = +2 units
Moneyline Faves = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Halftime/Live = 1-0-1 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Overall = 32-19-4 = 62.8% = +12 units
Early line wagers:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 1 - 2 - 1 = 33.3% = -1.2 units = CLV ~ +1.5
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 2 - 5 = 20.0% = -3.5 units = CLV ~ +13.5
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 4 - 3 = 57.1% = +0.7 units = CLV ~ +2.0
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 - 6 = 25.0% = -4.6 units = CLV ~ +2.5
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 4 - 2 = 66.7% = +1.8 units = CLV ~ +14.0
DD Faves (-10 or >) - 0 - 1 = 0.00% = -1.1 units = CLV ~ -.5
Totals OVER - 3 - 1 = 75.0% = +1.9 units = CLV ~ +1.0
Totals UNDER - 1 - 3 = 25.0% = -2.3 units = CLV ~ +5.0
2X Totals OVER - 0-1 = 0.00% = -2.2 units = CLV ~ +3
Overall = 17-24-1 = 41.5% = -10.5 units
Total CLV ~ +42
CLV per play = +1.00
Playbacks:
All plays = 1 - 2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units
Total CLV ~ +2.5
CLV per play = +.83
Cumulative = 50-45-5 = 50.0% = +0.3 units
NCAA Football Record:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 3 - 1 -2 = 75.0% = +1.85 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 6 -7 = 46.2% = -1.65 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 10 - 2 - 1 = 83.3% = +7.8 units
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 -1 = 66.7% = +0.9 units
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 2 - 0 = 100% = +2 units
DD Faves (-10 or >) = 0-2 = 0.00% = -2.2 units
Totals OVER - 3 - 5 = 37.5% = -2.5 units
Totals UNDER - 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units
2X Totals = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units
2X Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -2.2 units
2X Faves = 1-0 = 100.0% = +2 units
Moneyline Faves = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Halftime/Live = 1-0-1 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Overall = 32-19-4 = 62.8% = +12 units
Early line wagers:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 1 - 2 - 1 = 33.3% = -1.2 units = CLV ~ +1.5
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 2 - 5 = 20.0% = -3.5 units = CLV ~ +13.5
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 4 - 3 = 57.1% = +0.7 units = CLV ~ +2.0
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 - 6 = 25.0% = -4.6 units = CLV ~ +2.5
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 4 - 2 = 66.7% = +1.8 units = CLV ~ +14.0
DD Faves (-10 or >) - 0 - 1 = 0.00% = -1.1 units = CLV ~ -.5
Totals OVER - 3 - 1 = 75.0% = +1.9 units = CLV ~ +1.0
Totals UNDER - 1 - 3 = 25.0% = -2.3 units = CLV ~ +5.0
2X Totals OVER - 0-1 = 0.00% = -2.2 units = CLV ~ +3
Overall = 17-24-1 = 41.5% = -10.5 units
Total CLV ~ +42
CLV per play = +1.00
Playbacks:
All plays = 1 - 2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units
Total CLV ~ +2.5
CLV per play = +.83
Cumulative = 50-45-5 = 50.0% = +0.3 units
No Indiana or UConn to blindly bet on up on the openers this week, oh what will the opening bettors do.....oh, yeah just pound Army.
Early line wagers:
#109 MTSU/La. Tech Over 47.5
#114 South Florida +7 (-125)
#156 Buffalo +10
#141 Florida +17 (-120)
#164 Army -22.5
#171 Kansas St. -4.5
#174 New Mexico -4
#186 Oklahoma +14.5
Early line wagers:
#109 MTSU/La. Tech Over 47.5
#114 South Florida +7 (-125)
#156 Buffalo +10
#141 Florida +17 (-120)
#164 Army -22.5
#171 Kansas St. -4.5
#174 New Mexico -4
#186 Oklahoma +14.5
For 10-9:
#103 NMSU/Jacksonville St. Over 58.5
I run three sets of numbers for every game and all 3 of my numbers for this game came back at 62, with some variation of a 42-20 win for the home squad. I have bet NMSU several times this year as a dog and they do enter here off a bye. That would be great if HC Sanchez could coach, but he can't, and I don't expect the Aggies to be substantially better here than they've been all year. I do think the switch at QB can benefit the Aggies offensively but one week off is not going to fix their run defense. Jacksonville St. should be able to run effectively and gain chunk running plays and that is demoralizing to a defense. I have the Gamecocks running for 300+ yards in this one and if they do that I'd prefer the total. NMSU does get decent special teams play and JSU has shown vulnerability in that area. I think NMSU can do just enough here to help push this total Over the number, while I think they have a hard time holding the home team to less than 40 points.
#103 NMSU/Jacksonville St. Over 58.5
I run three sets of numbers for every game and all 3 of my numbers for this game came back at 62, with some variation of a 42-20 win for the home squad. I have bet NMSU several times this year as a dog and they do enter here off a bye. That would be great if HC Sanchez could coach, but he can't, and I don't expect the Aggies to be substantially better here than they've been all year. I do think the switch at QB can benefit the Aggies offensively but one week off is not going to fix their run defense. Jacksonville St. should be able to run effectively and gain chunk running plays and that is demoralizing to a defense. I have the Gamecocks running for 300+ yards in this one and if they do that I'd prefer the total. NMSU does get decent special teams play and JSU has shown vulnerability in that area. I think NMSU can do just enough here to help push this total Over the number, while I think they have a hard time holding the home team to less than 40 points.
Jacksonville St. runs for 334 yard, game goes Over.
NCAA Football Record:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 3 - 1 -2 = 75.0% = +1.85 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 6 -7 = 46.2% = -1.65 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 10 - 2 - 1 = 83.3% = +7.8 units
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 -1 = 66.7% = +0.9 units
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 2 - 0 = 100% = +2 units
DD Faves (-10 or >) = 0-2 = 0.00% = -2.2 units
Totals OVER - 4 - 5 = 44.4% = -1.5 units
Totals UNDER - 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units
2X Totals = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units
2X Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -2.2 units
2X Faves = 1-0 = 100.0% = +2 units
Moneyline Faves = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Halftime/Live = 1-0-1 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Overall = 33-19-4 = 63.5% = +13 units
Early line wagers:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 1 - 2 - 1 = 33.3% = -1.2 units = CLV ~ +1.5
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 2 - 5 = 20.0% = -3.5 units = CLV ~ +13.5
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 4 - 3 = 57.1% = +0.7 units = CLV ~ +2.0
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 - 6 = 25.0% = -4.6 units = CLV ~ +2.5
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 4 - 2 = 66.7% = +1.8 units = CLV ~ +14.0
DD Faves (-10 or >) - 0 - 1 = 0.00% = -1.1 units = CLV ~ -.5
Totals OVER - 3 - 1 = 75.0% = +1.9 units = CLV ~ +1.0
Totals UNDER - 1 - 3 = 25.0% = -2.3 units = CLV ~ +5.0
2X Totals OVER - 0-1 = 0.00% = -2.2 units = CLV ~ +3
Overall = 17-24-1 = 41.5% = -10.5 units
Total CLV ~ +42
CLV per play = +1.00
Playbacks:
All plays = 1 - 2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units
Total CLV ~ +2.5
CLV per play = +.83
Cumulative = 51-45-5 = 53.1% = +1.3 units
NCAA Football Record:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 3 - 1 -2 = 75.0% = +1.85 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 6 -7 = 46.2% = -1.65 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 10 - 2 - 1 = 83.3% = +7.8 units
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 -1 = 66.7% = +0.9 units
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 2 - 0 = 100% = +2 units
DD Faves (-10 or >) = 0-2 = 0.00% = -2.2 units
Totals OVER - 4 - 5 = 44.4% = -1.5 units
Totals UNDER - 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units
2X Totals = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units
2X Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -2.2 units
2X Faves = 1-0 = 100.0% = +2 units
Moneyline Faves = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Halftime/Live = 1-0-1 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Overall = 33-19-4 = 63.5% = +13 units
Early line wagers:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 1 - 2 - 1 = 33.3% = -1.2 units = CLV ~ +1.5
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 2 - 5 = 20.0% = -3.5 units = CLV ~ +13.5
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 4 - 3 = 57.1% = +0.7 units = CLV ~ +2.0
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 - 6 = 25.0% = -4.6 units = CLV ~ +2.5
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 4 - 2 = 66.7% = +1.8 units = CLV ~ +14.0
DD Faves (-10 or >) - 0 - 1 = 0.00% = -1.1 units = CLV ~ -.5
Totals OVER - 3 - 1 = 75.0% = +1.9 units = CLV ~ +1.0
Totals UNDER - 1 - 3 = 25.0% = -2.3 units = CLV ~ +5.0
2X Totals OVER - 0-1 = 0.00% = -2.2 units = CLV ~ +3
Overall = 17-24-1 = 41.5% = -10.5 units
Total CLV ~ +42
CLV per play = +1.00
Playbacks:
All plays = 1 - 2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units
Total CLV ~ +2.5
CLV per play = +.83
Cumulative = 51-45-5 = 53.1% = +1.3 units
For 10-11:
#115 Northwestern +11.5 (BetMGM)
There is no question that Northwestern is having some trouble offensively but some of that is due to offensive scheme and opponents faced. Here, on footing with an equal opponent, I think they'll be alright. I like Wildcat HC Braun a lot and his defensive minded, controlled approach plays well when they are installed as significant dogs leading to a 6-3 ATS record under his direction when they are installed as dogs of more than a TD. Maryland is off a bye and at home, which is a concern, but the talent level between these two teams is not that different and the coaching advantage def lies with the visitors. Northwestern has played 3 solid defensive teams so far (Miami (OH), Duke, Washington) and its home park factors are not conducive to offensive performances, so I'm not sure that their YTD offensive numbers are completely accurate. Both of these teams are 0-2 SU in conference play, so I would expect a desperate, intense effort from both teams. Those types of games tend be more defensive minded and lower scoring, making the points even more valuable. I made the number for this game +8.2 and was able to get a FG more than that so we get some line value as well.
#115 Northwestern +11.5 (BetMGM)
There is no question that Northwestern is having some trouble offensively but some of that is due to offensive scheme and opponents faced. Here, on footing with an equal opponent, I think they'll be alright. I like Wildcat HC Braun a lot and his defensive minded, controlled approach plays well when they are installed as significant dogs leading to a 6-3 ATS record under his direction when they are installed as dogs of more than a TD. Maryland is off a bye and at home, which is a concern, but the talent level between these two teams is not that different and the coaching advantage def lies with the visitors. Northwestern has played 3 solid defensive teams so far (Miami (OH), Duke, Washington) and its home park factors are not conducive to offensive performances, so I'm not sure that their YTD offensive numbers are completely accurate. Both of these teams are 0-2 SU in conference play, so I would expect a desperate, intense effort from both teams. Those types of games tend be more defensive minded and lower scoring, making the points even more valuable. I made the number for this game +8.2 and was able to get a FG more than that so we get some line value as well.
Hoping to get a stronger showing from the early line wagers this week so we can get things moving. Another deep card this week, found some totals opportunities and may add more totals depending on line movements.
For 10-12:
#124 West Virginia +3.5
Nice spot for the home dog. I have been on WVU a few times the season to varying results, but there is no doubting that a nighttime game in Morgantown is no easy task for the visitor. WVU looked great out of their bye, executing a solid gameplan and dismantling Oklahoma St. Love what Iowa St. has done and HC Campbell gritty's style is my kind of coaching, but this is an unusual roadtrip for the Cyclones and their style lends itself to close games. Was originally going to table this game but the hook on the 3 has me interested. Confidence and momentum can be fickle things and since scoring 2 late TD's to beat Kansas in Week #4, obviously improving over the bye, and then flourishing in a conference road game at a tough venue, WVU might be on the uptick. WVU fans were chomping at the bit to explode in an opening week home dog spot vs Penn St. and were disappointed, BUT that was a day game and the later start time for this game should have the WVU faithful sauced up and rowdy. I made then line +3 so the number is fair but the unfamiliar road trip and home team momentum has being siding with the home squad.
#132 Syracuse/NC State Over 53
I made the number for this game 57 and would be willing to play this game Over up to 56. We should see plenty of offensive plays in this game as Syracuse throws the ball on most downs and tries to play with some pace. Syracuse QB McCord leads the nation in passing yards per game but might find tougher sledding vs a good Wolfpack secondary. Part of the reason this total is being held down is that NC State will start true FR QB Bailey here due to an injury to starter QB McCall. I don't mind it. Bailey is long and athletic, if a little frail, and I think he can use his legs vs a Syrucuse D that lacks athleticism and playmakers. NC State has played a tough schedule and I don't think their offensive numbers are indicative of their coaching talent or offensive prowess, they should find some success vs a mediocre Syracuse D. I expect a long game, with lots of offensive plays for both sides, and for both QB's to find success. The Wolfpack have surrendered 33+ ppg and I think they can win this game SU. Both teams in the low 30's feels like the right answer. Over.
#146. Ball St./Kent St. Over 59.5
Got on the train a little late but did get the Ball St. Over LW. Ball St. is 5-0 to the Over so far this season because of, perhaps, the worst pass D in college football. If they don't have the worst pass D then it's because Kent St. does. Kent St. is terrible but is at home, off a bye, and gave new QB Ulatowski another week to prepare off his prior 345 yard performance. This is surely going to be the best offensive situation the Golden Flashes are in all year and with few opportunities for wins, and the understanding their D is weak, expect them to go all out on the offensive side to find some positivity and verifiable success for their offense. Can't see either team being interested in playing D in this one and I'm willing to ride the Ball St. Over train until it derails. I made the total for this game 63 and expect this number to creep towards that total as we approach kickoff.
#148 Wake Forest +21
This number not widely available but I did find one, I think if you wait some +21's should begin to populate. I have been impressed with how Clemson has turned their season around. QB Klubnik looks renewed and involving the two talented FR WR's has made the offense more explosive. Clemson has a talented D but if you've watched their games, there have been cracks, both NC State and Stanford moved the ball much better than the final scores would indicate. Wake Forest HC Clawson is one of the best and he's had a good gameplan for the Tigers in every one of their meetings. This is the only home game for WF in a 5 week stretch and the Demon Deacons have been good as 20+ dogs and good as dogs overall. The Wake offense is unique, plays with pace, and is well coached so despite their defensive shortcomings I think they can do enough to stay in this game. I think Clawson is one of the 10 best coaches in college football and with only UConn on deck I think he'll have his team well-prepped for this isolated home game. Clemson has also shown that they will play their 3rd and 4th string defenders with a big lead so the backdoor might be open for the WF even if they are getting manhandled.
#154 C. Michigan +3
This line was puzzling to me as I made the line Pick and was very surprised to see Ohio open as 3 pt road favorites. All 3 of my sets of numbers show the Chippewas winning this game outright by an average margin of +1.1 points and CMU has a pretty strong special teams advantage. CMU has absolutely owed this series (27-4-1 ATS run) and have been at home for month (3 home games and a bye). CMU is off a bye, this is Homecoming, and they have a quality HC in McElwain who should have then prepped well. This wager was not originally going to be on my card but the line value and series history are simply too much to ignore.
#162 North Carolina +4.5
I am not a fan of this UNC team but this seems a good spot for them. Prior to the season, the Tarheels were ranked but a QB injury, some poor defense, and a penchant for penalties has derailed their season. I don't think that HC Mack has done a good job but they do still have talent. Georgia Tech is well coached but a few of their early season performances have lost a little of their luster and the Yellowjackets are already 0-2 SU and ATS in true away games TY. UNC RB Hampton is finally grooving and and he will be the best player on the field. Georgia Tech has been a poor road favorite an it's a rare role for them in conference play and now they travel to face a desperate foe. UNC deserved a better fate vs both Duke and Pittsburgh and GT is no better than either of those teams. I thin the Tarheels can use RB Hampton to grind yards and keep their defense off the field. This game feels like a toss-up and I'll gladly grab the points with the conference home dog.
#171 Kansas St. -3.5 (+100)
I've had good success fading this Colorada team at. the appropriate times so let's get back to it. First off, this is going to be one of the biggest coaching mismatches in college football this year as Kansas St. HC Klieman is miles above Colorado HC Sanders and with both teams entering off a bye, the coaching difference should be amplified. Kansas St. has played one of the most difficult schedules in the country so far and have held up well. Wildcat QB Johnson is dynamic and has the athleticism to gash a poor tackling, chance taking, Buffaloes defense. Colorado has beaten too over-rated foes in Baylor and UCF and now face a legit Top 25 team. KSU must pressure Sanders and must avoid TO's but they are more talented, have the better coach, and this line is short due to Colorado's last 3 wins.
#192 Wyoming +1 (STN)
We jumped in with Wyoming LW ask were rewarded and we will come back to them here. Early in the season, probably no team in the country under-performed more than the Cowboys. Although LW's win was vs lowly Air Force their were lots of positives to take away and QB Svoboda finally played a good game. SDSU is similar to Air Force in that they are limited offensively and cannot simply out athlete the Cowboys. Some very interesting line movement here too as tons of early money came on SDSU pushing the line to +2.5 only to see it quickly reversed and wind up as Wyoming -1 at some spots. This is not public money moving the line and I think someone wanted to secure Wyoming as a dog. I like HC Sawvel's coaching lineage and he's had an extra week to prep his team and bask in the positives from that initial win. SDSU enters off a "barely" win vs lowly Hawaii and now must travel to altitude to play a rested squad. I made the line for this game Wyoming -2 and all 3 sets of my numbers show them outgaining SDSU, with 2 of my numbers showing Wyoming both rushing and passing for >200 yards....which is a positive indicator for a dog. Wyoming has been a great home dog (8-2 ATS recently) and this is a winnable game for them.
#197 Ohio St./Oregon Over 53.5
I made the total for this matchup 56.5 and would bet it Over up to the number. Ohio St.'s skill position players might be the best in the nation as they are deep and very talented at the WR and RB positions. Their D has been untested vs a fairly soft schedule so far and will be in a for test in this one. The Ducks will have no choice but to play wide-open and aggressively here as I think OSU will find offensive success and put pressure on Oregon to keep up. I think that OU QB Gabriel can be had and that some TO's might add scoring opportunities for the visitors and further push the home team to press on offense. Too many playmakers on both offenses for this game to be conservative or "tight" and if we can get a few early scores this game might become a shoot-out. OSU has yet to face a quality offense and in the one game the Ducks saw one (Boise St.) the game played to a 71 pt total and they allowed 6.7 ypr.
#204 USC +4
I am not a fan of "soft" PAC-12 teams playing physical teams from the SEC and Big 10 and make no-mistake USC is still a PAC-12 school BUT their off-season additions on the defensive coaching side have been paying dividends as they are much improved and slightly more physical. An interesting dynamic has arisen in the new Big 10 as the unique travel for visiting teams making long trips has been very difficult and they are performing poorly ATS and are just 1-7 SU. That will not bode well for a Penn St. team that faces long, unfamiliar travel here. I think the look-ahead line on this game, which was Pick, was a more accurate line and that we are catching value with the home team due to some very close losses to solid teams (Michigan, Minnesota). Penn St. has been fairly untested and has not faced a team as talented or well coached as USC. USC has seen this script before and this will be their 4th straight game where the game flow and goal of the opponent will be very similar. USC has faced a very difficult schedule and faced several physical, slower paced teams that want to run right at them. That should benefit them in preparation here. I think Penn St. is a bit over-rated, the lengthy travel is a concern, and I think we are getting line value....that's enough to get me on the home dog.
For 10-12:
#124 West Virginia +3.5
Nice spot for the home dog. I have been on WVU a few times the season to varying results, but there is no doubting that a nighttime game in Morgantown is no easy task for the visitor. WVU looked great out of their bye, executing a solid gameplan and dismantling Oklahoma St. Love what Iowa St. has done and HC Campbell gritty's style is my kind of coaching, but this is an unusual roadtrip for the Cyclones and their style lends itself to close games. Was originally going to table this game but the hook on the 3 has me interested. Confidence and momentum can be fickle things and since scoring 2 late TD's to beat Kansas in Week #4, obviously improving over the bye, and then flourishing in a conference road game at a tough venue, WVU might be on the uptick. WVU fans were chomping at the bit to explode in an opening week home dog spot vs Penn St. and were disappointed, BUT that was a day game and the later start time for this game should have the WVU faithful sauced up and rowdy. I made then line +3 so the number is fair but the unfamiliar road trip and home team momentum has being siding with the home squad.
#132 Syracuse/NC State Over 53
I made the number for this game 57 and would be willing to play this game Over up to 56. We should see plenty of offensive plays in this game as Syracuse throws the ball on most downs and tries to play with some pace. Syracuse QB McCord leads the nation in passing yards per game but might find tougher sledding vs a good Wolfpack secondary. Part of the reason this total is being held down is that NC State will start true FR QB Bailey here due to an injury to starter QB McCall. I don't mind it. Bailey is long and athletic, if a little frail, and I think he can use his legs vs a Syrucuse D that lacks athleticism and playmakers. NC State has played a tough schedule and I don't think their offensive numbers are indicative of their coaching talent or offensive prowess, they should find some success vs a mediocre Syracuse D. I expect a long game, with lots of offensive plays for both sides, and for both QB's to find success. The Wolfpack have surrendered 33+ ppg and I think they can win this game SU. Both teams in the low 30's feels like the right answer. Over.
#146. Ball St./Kent St. Over 59.5
Got on the train a little late but did get the Ball St. Over LW. Ball St. is 5-0 to the Over so far this season because of, perhaps, the worst pass D in college football. If they don't have the worst pass D then it's because Kent St. does. Kent St. is terrible but is at home, off a bye, and gave new QB Ulatowski another week to prepare off his prior 345 yard performance. This is surely going to be the best offensive situation the Golden Flashes are in all year and with few opportunities for wins, and the understanding their D is weak, expect them to go all out on the offensive side to find some positivity and verifiable success for their offense. Can't see either team being interested in playing D in this one and I'm willing to ride the Ball St. Over train until it derails. I made the total for this game 63 and expect this number to creep towards that total as we approach kickoff.
#148 Wake Forest +21
This number not widely available but I did find one, I think if you wait some +21's should begin to populate. I have been impressed with how Clemson has turned their season around. QB Klubnik looks renewed and involving the two talented FR WR's has made the offense more explosive. Clemson has a talented D but if you've watched their games, there have been cracks, both NC State and Stanford moved the ball much better than the final scores would indicate. Wake Forest HC Clawson is one of the best and he's had a good gameplan for the Tigers in every one of their meetings. This is the only home game for WF in a 5 week stretch and the Demon Deacons have been good as 20+ dogs and good as dogs overall. The Wake offense is unique, plays with pace, and is well coached so despite their defensive shortcomings I think they can do enough to stay in this game. I think Clawson is one of the 10 best coaches in college football and with only UConn on deck I think he'll have his team well-prepped for this isolated home game. Clemson has also shown that they will play their 3rd and 4th string defenders with a big lead so the backdoor might be open for the WF even if they are getting manhandled.
#154 C. Michigan +3
This line was puzzling to me as I made the line Pick and was very surprised to see Ohio open as 3 pt road favorites. All 3 of my sets of numbers show the Chippewas winning this game outright by an average margin of +1.1 points and CMU has a pretty strong special teams advantage. CMU has absolutely owed this series (27-4-1 ATS run) and have been at home for month (3 home games and a bye). CMU is off a bye, this is Homecoming, and they have a quality HC in McElwain who should have then prepped well. This wager was not originally going to be on my card but the line value and series history are simply too much to ignore.
#162 North Carolina +4.5
I am not a fan of this UNC team but this seems a good spot for them. Prior to the season, the Tarheels were ranked but a QB injury, some poor defense, and a penchant for penalties has derailed their season. I don't think that HC Mack has done a good job but they do still have talent. Georgia Tech is well coached but a few of their early season performances have lost a little of their luster and the Yellowjackets are already 0-2 SU and ATS in true away games TY. UNC RB Hampton is finally grooving and and he will be the best player on the field. Georgia Tech has been a poor road favorite an it's a rare role for them in conference play and now they travel to face a desperate foe. UNC deserved a better fate vs both Duke and Pittsburgh and GT is no better than either of those teams. I thin the Tarheels can use RB Hampton to grind yards and keep their defense off the field. This game feels like a toss-up and I'll gladly grab the points with the conference home dog.
#171 Kansas St. -3.5 (+100)
I've had good success fading this Colorada team at. the appropriate times so let's get back to it. First off, this is going to be one of the biggest coaching mismatches in college football this year as Kansas St. HC Klieman is miles above Colorado HC Sanders and with both teams entering off a bye, the coaching difference should be amplified. Kansas St. has played one of the most difficult schedules in the country so far and have held up well. Wildcat QB Johnson is dynamic and has the athleticism to gash a poor tackling, chance taking, Buffaloes defense. Colorado has beaten too over-rated foes in Baylor and UCF and now face a legit Top 25 team. KSU must pressure Sanders and must avoid TO's but they are more talented, have the better coach, and this line is short due to Colorado's last 3 wins.
#192 Wyoming +1 (STN)
We jumped in with Wyoming LW ask were rewarded and we will come back to them here. Early in the season, probably no team in the country under-performed more than the Cowboys. Although LW's win was vs lowly Air Force their were lots of positives to take away and QB Svoboda finally played a good game. SDSU is similar to Air Force in that they are limited offensively and cannot simply out athlete the Cowboys. Some very interesting line movement here too as tons of early money came on SDSU pushing the line to +2.5 only to see it quickly reversed and wind up as Wyoming -1 at some spots. This is not public money moving the line and I think someone wanted to secure Wyoming as a dog. I like HC Sawvel's coaching lineage and he's had an extra week to prep his team and bask in the positives from that initial win. SDSU enters off a "barely" win vs lowly Hawaii and now must travel to altitude to play a rested squad. I made the line for this game Wyoming -2 and all 3 sets of my numbers show them outgaining SDSU, with 2 of my numbers showing Wyoming both rushing and passing for >200 yards....which is a positive indicator for a dog. Wyoming has been a great home dog (8-2 ATS recently) and this is a winnable game for them.
#197 Ohio St./Oregon Over 53.5
I made the total for this matchup 56.5 and would bet it Over up to the number. Ohio St.'s skill position players might be the best in the nation as they are deep and very talented at the WR and RB positions. Their D has been untested vs a fairly soft schedule so far and will be in a for test in this one. The Ducks will have no choice but to play wide-open and aggressively here as I think OSU will find offensive success and put pressure on Oregon to keep up. I think that OU QB Gabriel can be had and that some TO's might add scoring opportunities for the visitors and further push the home team to press on offense. Too many playmakers on both offenses for this game to be conservative or "tight" and if we can get a few early scores this game might become a shoot-out. OSU has yet to face a quality offense and in the one game the Ducks saw one (Boise St.) the game played to a 71 pt total and they allowed 6.7 ypr.
#204 USC +4
I am not a fan of "soft" PAC-12 teams playing physical teams from the SEC and Big 10 and make no-mistake USC is still a PAC-12 school BUT their off-season additions on the defensive coaching side have been paying dividends as they are much improved and slightly more physical. An interesting dynamic has arisen in the new Big 10 as the unique travel for visiting teams making long trips has been very difficult and they are performing poorly ATS and are just 1-7 SU. That will not bode well for a Penn St. team that faces long, unfamiliar travel here. I think the look-ahead line on this game, which was Pick, was a more accurate line and that we are catching value with the home team due to some very close losses to solid teams (Michigan, Minnesota). Penn St. has been fairly untested and has not faced a team as talented or well coached as USC. USC has seen this script before and this will be their 4th straight game where the game flow and goal of the opponent will be very similar. USC has faced a very difficult schedule and faced several physical, slower paced teams that want to run right at them. That should benefit them in preparation here. I think Penn St. is a bit over-rated, the lengthy travel is a concern, and I think we are getting line value....that's enough to get me on the home dog.
Let's stretch our legs a little...
#118 Utah St. +20 (Caesar's)
I spent a month one week in Logan, Utah and it is no easy place to travel to or play football in. UNLV has had a fantastic season YTD and are getting great coaching from HC Odom. The switch at QB, as I postulated, has actually been a boon for the Rebels and he, and the team, have played well since. No arguing that Utah St. is not a good team but how much of that can be blamed on playing some very good competition so far (Boise St., Utah, USC) and enduring a long and unusual road trip (@ Temple). I don't think we accurately know who this Utah St. team is yet. Despite playing two quality D's the Aggies still have a Top 50 offense and they are usually good as a home dog. UNLV had their hearts broken LW vs Syracuse and how will they respond now having to travel as a conference road favorite immediately after. I don't think there is a worse setup within conference for them. and this will be the new QB's first road start. This will be the largest away favorite that UNLV has been in the history of their football program and just 4 weeks ago a ranked Utah team, with playoff aspirations, was a -20 favorite here. Now UNLV is laying the same number? The Aggies D is poor and they are at a coaching deficit but the situation and the Aggies O can keep them in it. I made the line +17 we gain a full FG worth of line value and the Aggies have the type of offense that could slide in the backdoor late if necessary. Gimme the points.
#118 Utah St. +20 (Caesar's)
I spent a month one week in Logan, Utah and it is no easy place to travel to or play football in. UNLV has had a fantastic season YTD and are getting great coaching from HC Odom. The switch at QB, as I postulated, has actually been a boon for the Rebels and he, and the team, have played well since. No arguing that Utah St. is not a good team but how much of that can be blamed on playing some very good competition so far (Boise St., Utah, USC) and enduring a long and unusual road trip (@ Temple). I don't think we accurately know who this Utah St. team is yet. Despite playing two quality D's the Aggies still have a Top 50 offense and they are usually good as a home dog. UNLV had their hearts broken LW vs Syracuse and how will they respond now having to travel as a conference road favorite immediately after. I don't think there is a worse setup within conference for them. and this will be the new QB's first road start. This will be the largest away favorite that UNLV has been in the history of their football program and just 4 weeks ago a ranked Utah team, with playoff aspirations, was a -20 favorite here. Now UNLV is laying the same number? The Aggies D is poor and they are at a coaching deficit but the situation and the Aggies O can keep them in it. I made the line +17 we gain a full FG worth of line value and the Aggies have the type of offense that could slide in the backdoor late if necessary. Gimme the points.
Moving on to Saturday:
NCAA Football Record:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 3 - 1 -2 = 75.0% = +1.85 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 6 -7 = 46.2% = -1.65 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 12 - 2 - 1 = 85.7% = +9.8 units
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 -1 = 66.7% = +0.9 units
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 2 - 0 = 100% = +2 units
DD Faves (-10 or >) = 0-2 = 0.00% = -2.2 units
Totals OVER - 4 - 5 = 44.4% = -1.5 units
Totals UNDER - 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units
2X Totals = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units
2X Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -2.2 units
2X Faves = 1-0 = 100.0% = +2 units
Moneyline Faves = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Halftime/Live = 1-0-1 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Overall = 35-19-4 = 64.8% = +15 units
Early line wagers:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 1 - 2 - 1 = 33.3% = -1.2 units = CLV ~ +1.5
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 2 - 5 = 20.0% = -3.5 units = CLV ~ +13.5
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 4 - 3 = 57.1% = +0.7 units = CLV ~ +2.0
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 - 6 = 25.0% = -4.6 units = CLV ~ +2.5
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 4 - 2 = 66.7% = +1.8 units = CLV ~ +14.0
DD Faves (-10 or >) - 0 - 1 = 0.00% = -1.1 units = CLV ~ -.5
Totals OVER - 4 - 1 = 80.0% = +2.9 units = CLV ~ +0.5
Totals UNDER - 1 - 3 = 25.0% = -2.3 units = CLV ~ +5.0
2X Totals OVER - 0-1 = 0.00% = -2.2 units = CLV ~ +3
Overall = 18-24-1 = 42.9% = -9.5 units
Total CLV ~ +41.5
CLV per play = +.99
Playbacks:
All plays = 1 - 2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units
Total CLV ~ +2.5
CLV per play = +.83
Cumulative = 54-45-5 = 54.6% = +4.3 units
Haven't done this yet this season but I don't like the looming movement in the Toledo/Buffalo game so I am going to create a playback wager. Normally, I would do this in an attempt to middle a game but here I'll do it to cancel out of a wager I no longer want to have.
Playback wager:
#155 Toledo -10
NCAA Football Record:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 3 - 1 -2 = 75.0% = +1.85 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 6 -7 = 46.2% = -1.65 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 12 - 2 - 1 = 85.7% = +9.8 units
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 -1 = 66.7% = +0.9 units
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 2 - 0 = 100% = +2 units
DD Faves (-10 or >) = 0-2 = 0.00% = -2.2 units
Totals OVER - 4 - 5 = 44.4% = -1.5 units
Totals UNDER - 2 -0 = 100% = +2.0 units
2X Totals = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units
2X Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -2.2 units
2X Faves = 1-0 = 100.0% = +2 units
Moneyline Faves = 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Halftime/Live = 1-0-1 = 100.0% = +1.0 units
Overall = 35-19-4 = 64.8% = +15 units
Early line wagers:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 1 - 2 - 1 = 33.3% = -1.2 units = CLV ~ +1.5
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 2 - 5 = 20.0% = -3.5 units = CLV ~ +13.5
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 4 - 3 = 57.1% = +0.7 units = CLV ~ +2.0
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 2 - 6 = 25.0% = -4.6 units = CLV ~ +2.5
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 4 - 2 = 66.7% = +1.8 units = CLV ~ +14.0
DD Faves (-10 or >) - 0 - 1 = 0.00% = -1.1 units = CLV ~ -.5
Totals OVER - 4 - 1 = 80.0% = +2.9 units = CLV ~ +0.5
Totals UNDER - 1 - 3 = 25.0% = -2.3 units = CLV ~ +5.0
2X Totals OVER - 0-1 = 0.00% = -2.2 units = CLV ~ +3
Overall = 18-24-1 = 42.9% = -9.5 units
Total CLV ~ +41.5
CLV per play = +.99
Playbacks:
All plays = 1 - 2 = 33.3% = -1.2 units
Total CLV ~ +2.5
CLV per play = +.83
Cumulative = 54-45-5 = 54.6% = +4.3 units
Haven't done this yet this season but I don't like the looming movement in the Toledo/Buffalo game so I am going to create a playback wager. Normally, I would do this in an attempt to middle a game but here I'll do it to cancel out of a wager I no longer want to have.
Playback wager:
#155 Toledo -10
