Looks like I'm going to get bad numbers in the Oregon St. and TCU games, I don't like whiffing on those 2 numbers. I'll add more if I can get +17.5 or better in the Oregon St. game and +2.5 (+100) or better in the TCU game.
For 9-14-24:
#205 SDSU/California Under 48.5
This game is down from the peak but this number is still playable. I made the number 46.5 so we gain some value by keeping 47 & 48. Situationally this game sets up in many positive ways. SDSU has been a defensive minded squad for some time and they come off a good defensive performance vs another similarly talented former PAC-12 school. With only a bye on deck, they should be focused for this one. Cal comes off a physical SU underdog road win at a SEC school, and with a road trip to Florida St. on deck, they should just be looking to get out of this game healthy and with the win. SDSU's offense was dominated LW, generating just 179 total yards and scoring 0 points. However, their gameplan worked as despite the abysmal offensive performance, they were in the game down just 0-7 entering the 4th quarter. When limited in certain areas you just have to give yourself a chance to win, SDSU's best chance to win is to play exactly the way the did LW. Cal returns 15 starters and has a good coach. I was dismayed at LW's SU win at Auburn because I was looking to play Cal as a dog 3 times later in the year and now some of the value will be gone from those games. Love Bears HC Wilcox and his team is better than most think and the setup is there for a noteworthy season. This game is a stepping stone and I think the Bears will cost through it using their running game in the 2nd half, just as Oregon State did LW. Last year Cal played a rough-n-tumble game early season game vs Auburn, then was at home vs a weaker opponent, before traveling to face a tough conference foe. In that interim game LY, Cal slogged its way to a 31-17 win vs Idaho and I expect a similar showing here.
#136 Florida +4.5
Ok, I'll bite. Both of these teams are down from historical standards and took out opening weekend SU losses by obliterating inferior teams in Week #2. This will be a strange and unfamiliar trip for the Aggies and playing in The Swamp is still an intimidating task. The move to FR QB Lagway for Florida is a huge bonus and his athleticism over former game-manager QB Mertz will really help the Gators on 3rd downs and when plays break down. Aggies new HC Elko is excellent and brings a ton of returning starters (18) and a lot of talent to this matchup. I didn't like what I saw in Week #1 from either of these offenses but I think Florida, with Lagway, have more of a chance to fix it. Also, Elko is in his 1st year at Texas A&M and is still fairly secure in his new job, Florida HC Napier will literally be coaching for his job in this game. Tough to back a FR QB making his first "big" start but Lagway was very highly touted and showed out LW vs Samford (456 yards passing, 3 TD's) in a confidence building performance. Napier never wanted Lagway to play this early and the fact that he did reveals to us Napier's mindset. He is all-in here and his players and the fans will be able to feel it, expect every effort can think of. Florida is still stacked with SEC caliber athletes and The Swamp is a very tough place to play. I made this line Florida +1 prior to the season beginning and have seen nothing from either of these squads to lead me to believe this is anything more than a toss-up. Gimme the points.
#192 Colorado St. +7.5
Got this on the open at a better number, but it's still playable here. At least I am being true to my word, I said I was going to fade Colorado at every reasonable opportunity early in this season and I've done just that. Here we are again. The analysis for this game is pretty simple, the Buffaloes cannot run the ball and they cannot control either line of scrimmage. This is a dangerous combination to absorb and still be continually flagged with inflated lines and unreasonable expectations. I don't care how many Heisman Trophy candidates you have on your team, if can't run the ball, can't protect the QB, and use your DL as window dressing for making aggressive plays on D, you will get beat and you will get beat-up. Colorado St. returns some legit offensive firepower and have quality talent at QB, RB, and WR giving this game the potential to become a shootout, we saw this LY in a wild 35-43 Rams loss. This is a rivalry game and this game will have been the focus of Rams HC Norvell early season game prep. The Rams played at Texas (no chance), then had games vs Northern Colorado and UTEP surrounding this one, prior to a bye. This is the definition of a "focus game" from a setup perspective. On the other side, Colorado comes in off a physical game at Nebraska and now travels to face a revenge-minded rival, not a good setup. Colorado actually played better than the final score LW vs Nebraska but I think the Colorado St. defense can get enough stops to keep them in the game. Huge backdoor potential for the home team if they happen to be trailing late as well. Still lots of value in fading Deion and they over-hyped Buffaloes.
#141 West Virginia -2.5 (-115)
Strange how college football betting hype can change so quickly. Prior to the season, WVU was a sexy dog play and some were calling for them to upset mighty Penn St. and be a player in the Big 12. One butt-whooping later and no one is talking about them. Pre-season Pitt was picked to finish 9th or 10th in a mediocre ACC. One great 4th quarter comeback to beat an average Cincinnati squad and now they are getting some love. I just don't see it. I love Pitt HC Narduzzi and that is my only fear in this game. He is not only a great coach but a great motivator and leader of young men, throw in the rivalry aspect of this game and he will def have his team ready. I think this game will be played similarly to LY's contest and the WVU power running game will be the difference. WVU plays one of the toughest schedules in the country and their Big 12 conference schedule is brutal, a loss here and the Mountaineers might find themselves needing a win at Texas Tech in the final week of the season simply to become bowl eligible. Rivalry ensure the focus and the better team wins.
For 9-14-24:
#205 SDSU/California Under 48.5
This game is down from the peak but this number is still playable. I made the number 46.5 so we gain some value by keeping 47 & 48. Situationally this game sets up in many positive ways. SDSU has been a defensive minded squad for some time and they come off a good defensive performance vs another similarly talented former PAC-12 school. With only a bye on deck, they should be focused for this one. Cal comes off a physical SU underdog road win at a SEC school, and with a road trip to Florida St. on deck, they should just be looking to get out of this game healthy and with the win. SDSU's offense was dominated LW, generating just 179 total yards and scoring 0 points. However, their gameplan worked as despite the abysmal offensive performance, they were in the game down just 0-7 entering the 4th quarter. When limited in certain areas you just have to give yourself a chance to win, SDSU's best chance to win is to play exactly the way the did LW. Cal returns 15 starters and has a good coach. I was dismayed at LW's SU win at Auburn because I was looking to play Cal as a dog 3 times later in the year and now some of the value will be gone from those games. Love Bears HC Wilcox and his team is better than most think and the setup is there for a noteworthy season. This game is a stepping stone and I think the Bears will cost through it using their running game in the 2nd half, just as Oregon State did LW. Last year Cal played a rough-n-tumble game early season game vs Auburn, then was at home vs a weaker opponent, before traveling to face a tough conference foe. In that interim game LY, Cal slogged its way to a 31-17 win vs Idaho and I expect a similar showing here.
#136 Florida +4.5
Ok, I'll bite. Both of these teams are down from historical standards and took out opening weekend SU losses by obliterating inferior teams in Week #2. This will be a strange and unfamiliar trip for the Aggies and playing in The Swamp is still an intimidating task. The move to FR QB Lagway for Florida is a huge bonus and his athleticism over former game-manager QB Mertz will really help the Gators on 3rd downs and when plays break down. Aggies new HC Elko is excellent and brings a ton of returning starters (18) and a lot of talent to this matchup. I didn't like what I saw in Week #1 from either of these offenses but I think Florida, with Lagway, have more of a chance to fix it. Also, Elko is in his 1st year at Texas A&M and is still fairly secure in his new job, Florida HC Napier will literally be coaching for his job in this game. Tough to back a FR QB making his first "big" start but Lagway was very highly touted and showed out LW vs Samford (456 yards passing, 3 TD's) in a confidence building performance. Napier never wanted Lagway to play this early and the fact that he did reveals to us Napier's mindset. He is all-in here and his players and the fans will be able to feel it, expect every effort can think of. Florida is still stacked with SEC caliber athletes and The Swamp is a very tough place to play. I made this line Florida +1 prior to the season beginning and have seen nothing from either of these squads to lead me to believe this is anything more than a toss-up. Gimme the points.
#192 Colorado St. +7.5
Got this on the open at a better number, but it's still playable here. At least I am being true to my word, I said I was going to fade Colorado at every reasonable opportunity early in this season and I've done just that. Here we are again. The analysis for this game is pretty simple, the Buffaloes cannot run the ball and they cannot control either line of scrimmage. This is a dangerous combination to absorb and still be continually flagged with inflated lines and unreasonable expectations. I don't care how many Heisman Trophy candidates you have on your team, if can't run the ball, can't protect the QB, and use your DL as window dressing for making aggressive plays on D, you will get beat and you will get beat-up. Colorado St. returns some legit offensive firepower and have quality talent at QB, RB, and WR giving this game the potential to become a shootout, we saw this LY in a wild 35-43 Rams loss. This is a rivalry game and this game will have been the focus of Rams HC Norvell early season game prep. The Rams played at Texas (no chance), then had games vs Northern Colorado and UTEP surrounding this one, prior to a bye. This is the definition of a "focus game" from a setup perspective. On the other side, Colorado comes in off a physical game at Nebraska and now travels to face a revenge-minded rival, not a good setup. Colorado actually played better than the final score LW vs Nebraska but I think the Colorado St. defense can get enough stops to keep them in the game. Huge backdoor potential for the home team if they happen to be trailing late as well. Still lots of value in fading Deion and they over-hyped Buffaloes.
#141 West Virginia -2.5 (-115)
Strange how college football betting hype can change so quickly. Prior to the season, WVU was a sexy dog play and some were calling for them to upset mighty Penn St. and be a player in the Big 12. One butt-whooping later and no one is talking about them. Pre-season Pitt was picked to finish 9th or 10th in a mediocre ACC. One great 4th quarter comeback to beat an average Cincinnati squad and now they are getting some love. I just don't see it. I love Pitt HC Narduzzi and that is my only fear in this game. He is not only a great coach but a great motivator and leader of young men, throw in the rivalry aspect of this game and he will def have his team ready. I think this game will be played similarly to LY's contest and the WVU power running game will be the difference. WVU plays one of the toughest schedules in the country and their Big 12 conference schedule is brutal, a loss here and the Mountaineers might find themselves needing a win at Texas Tech in the final week of the season simply to become bowl eligible. Rivalry ensure the focus and the better team wins.
