Thanks for everything you do. I enjoy reading your posts. I have a question about your total formula. How far above or below the posted total does the number have to be to make it a play? eg. Pitt/Balt, using the formula the number is 45.7. When you subtract the total of 37 the number is + 8.76. Does this mean the lean is to the over ? If my question is inappropriate I apologize.
I use it more for the unders than the overs....but you got it right....a value of +8.76 is a good edge to the over
BUT
I use other tools to match up to see if this is a good number
here it is
pitt book avg last 5 games 39.5 39 35 37 37.5 = 188 div by 5 = 37.6
bal book avg last 5 games 41 44 39.5 43 41 =208.5 div by 5 =41.6
so you could say 39.5 is the avg
now what happen in those game
bal +16 +10 -10 -23 -4 = -11 div by 5 = 2 less than the Avg for Bal
Pit -16 -9 +4 -7 +13 = -15 div by 5 = 3 less than avg for pitt
so they avg -2.5...take that from the book avg 39.5 and you have 37
when I see two one is high and one is low I stay away
now lets do GB
book avg is 44
atl is 44
what did they do
atl -3 ........... .5 under 43
and GB -42 8.5 under..31.5
so this game is the avg of those two numbers 37
so the books set the line at 45.5...iwhich one would you go with under with a +8.5 edge or the total yard -325 div by 7.5 at 49 +4.5 edge
its alway good to have both on the under or the under if you know what I mean
