LEt's look at just Buf last 2 losses. They outgain Philly 505 yds to 378 yds, lose by 3. Outgain Denver 369 yds to 300 yds, lose by 2. Buf wins those two games they are now 8-4 and a SB contender. Teams record changes perception of value. They have been unlucky in one score games. 2-6
Yards are not the end all be all. Philadelphia has been outgained by 100+ yards in 5 consecutive games, and are 4-1 in those games. The Bills are not special for outgaining them. They frankly deserved to lose by more against Denver, but Broncos so inept offensively.
They aren't losing close games just because of "randomness" or variance.
They have 4 blowout wins this year, three against garbage teams: Raiders, Jets, Commanders. Their one marquee win is the blowout against the Dolphins early in the season, which looks more and more like an anomaly.
In their other 8 games they are 2-6 straight up and
0-8 against the spread. They nearly blew a game at home against the Bucs. They also didn't score until the 4th quarter of a home game against the Tyrod Taylor-led Giants and got away with PI on the last play of the game. If you're gonna think about flipping the Eagles/Broncos game (which is kind of silly), then should be able to go the other way with the Giants at least.
They managed to get diced up by Mac Jones. They got a late TD to make it look close against the Bengals.
Their struggles in close games are because of bad decision-making and execution in those moments. This has been my thing with the Bills for a couple of years.....if they can get a lead, they can really run it up on you. But if it's tight, they are hard to trust
They are an analytics wet dream, but there is no reason anyone should think they can win 5 in a row then make a run in the playoffs. Just super dumb