Are the Dolphins Overrated

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They are banged up

And cuz it's the Bills
Why would Vegas "overvalue" the Bills? They're not even a big market team, which the zebras tend to favor in big games.

Nobody likes the Bills.

Your theories never make any sense.
 

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LEt's look at just Buf last 2 losses. They outgain Philly 505 yds to 378 yds, lose by 3. Outgain Denver 369 yds to 300 yds, lose by 2. Buf wins those two games they are now 8-4 and a SB contender. Teams record changes perception of value. They have been unlucky in one score games. 2-6
 

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LEt's look at just Buf last 2 losses. They outgain Philly 505 yds to 378 yds, lose by 3. Outgain Denver 369 yds to 300 yds, lose by 2. Buf wins those two games they are now 8-4 and a SB contender. Teams record changes perception of value. They have been unlucky in one score games. 2-6
They need better coaching - the right decisions at key moments of the game.

13-3 a year ago. They're not "overvalued", they are contenders, whether Avo admits it or not.

That's why Vegas respects the Bills.
 

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LEt's look at just Buf last 2 losses. They outgain Philly 505 yds to 378 yds, lose by 3. Outgain Denver 369 yds to 300 yds, lose by 2. Buf wins those two games they are now 8-4 and a SB contender. Teams record changes perception of value. They have been unlucky in one score games. 2-6
Yards are not the end all be all. Philadelphia has been outgained by 100+ yards in 5 consecutive games, and are 4-1 in those games. The Bills are not special for outgaining them. They frankly deserved to lose by more against Denver, but Broncos so inept offensively.

They aren't losing close games just because of "randomness" or variance.

They have 4 blowout wins this year, three against garbage teams: Raiders, Jets, Commanders. Their one marquee win is the blowout against the Dolphins early in the season, which looks more and more like an anomaly.

In their other 8 games they are 2-6 straight up and 0-8 against the spread. They nearly blew a game at home against the Bucs. They also didn't score until the 4th quarter of a home game against the Tyrod Taylor-led Giants and got away with PI on the last play of the game. If you're gonna think about flipping the Eagles/Broncos game (which is kind of silly), then should be able to go the other way with the Giants at least.

They managed to get diced up by Mac Jones. They got a late TD to make it look close against the Bengals.

Their struggles in close games are because of bad decision-making and execution in those moments. This has been my thing with the Bills for a couple of years.....if they can get a lead, they can really run it up on you. But if it's tight, they are hard to trust

They are an analytics wet dream, but there is no reason anyone should think they can win 5 in a row then make a run in the playoffs. Just super dumb
 

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They need better coaching - the right decisions at key moments of the game.

13-3 a year ago. They're not "overvalued", they are contenders, whether Avo admits it or not.

That's why Vegas respects the Bills.
13-3, 11-6, 13-3 last 3 years.
 

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Preseason last year with futures
Since start of 2022, they are 12-18 against the spread

Even worse, their odds on winning the Super Bowl have been in the +600 to +800 ranges, which is beyond laughable

0-2 against the number in both playoff games, did not come close to covering in either one
 

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Since start of 2022, they are 12-18 against the spread

Even worse, their odds on winning the Super Bowl have been in the +600 to +800 ranges, which is beyond laughable

0-2 against the number in both playoff games, did not come close to covering in either one
So what's your power ranking ATS?

My power ranking ATS would look like this.

1. SF
2. Dallas
3. Buf
4. KC
5. Bal
6. Philly
7. Mia
 

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Joe Brady already put up 30 pts in his first two games utilizing a more balanced playbook.

Despite the media adoration for Brian Daboll crediting him for Allen's success, all that Daboll-Dorsey offensive gimmickry has been exposed as a fraud. First in Buffalo (Daboll-Dorsey) and now with the NYG (Daboll) - fundamentally unsound, far too one-dimensional and way too predictable. Although, I'm almost certain Dorsey will be back with Schoen and Daboll next season as OC, assuming the Giants antsy owner doesn't sack all of them first (pun intended).

So the Brian Daboll chapter is over and done with in Buffalo. Good riddance.

Now Joe Brady (only 34, with multiple HC interviews on his resume already, and the man Avo's boy JoeyB credits for his success at LSU) needs to ditch the shotgun formation and let Allen snap the ball under center, which will open up the playbook and running game even further - bootlegs with those powerful legs, effective play-action etc., giving the NFL's best QB as many options as possible to showcase the BEAST he is, both through the air and on the ground.

For those too young to remember Brett Favre live, if you love football, never miss a Josh Allen snap. He's even better.
 

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Joe Brady already put up 30 pts in his first two games utilizing a more balanced playbook.

Despite the media adoration for Brian Daboll crediting him for Allen's success, all that Daboll-Dorsey offensive gimmickry has been exposed as a fraud. First in Buffalo (Daboll-Dorsey) and now with the NYG (Daboll) - fundamentally unsound, far too one-dimensional and way too predictable. Although, I'm almost certain Dorsey will be back with Schoen and Daboll next season as OC, assuming the Giants antsy owner doesn't sack all of them first (pun intended).

So the Brian Daboll chapter is over and done with in Buffalo. Good riddance.

Now Joe Brady (only 34, with multiple HC interviews on his resume already, and the man Avo's boy JoeyB credits for his success at LSU) needs to ditch the shotgun formation and let Allen snap the ball under center, which will open up the playbook and running game even further - bootlegs with those powerful legs, effective play-action etc., giving the NFL's best QB as many options as possible to showcase the BEAST he is, both through the air and on the ground.

For those too young to remember Brett Favre live, if you love football, never miss a Josh Allen snap. He's even better.
Allen and Mahomes are the only two QBs in the league that can completely carry a team when on.

edit - add Burrow
 

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Miami is first in the AFC - cruising at an altitude of 40,000 feet at 9-3. They are, as NFL analysists would say, "the favorites", gunning for that #1 seed.

KC was barely a PK against Miami on a neutral field overseas. KC won.

Now the floundering 6-6 Bills visit Arrowhead (notoriously loud and hostile - hardly a neutral setting) and the game is also a barely a PK (opened at 2.5, quickly bet down to 1.5).

Now, if you knew nothing about any of these teams and only looked at the standings and stats, you'd scratch your head...and you'd be right.

Makes no sense. The line should be much higher for the SuperBowl champs..

Unless..
 

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Now the floundering 6-6 Bills visit Arrowhead (notoriously loud and hostile - hardly a neutral setting) and the game is also a barely a PK (opened at 2.5, quickly bet down to 1.5).
Arrowhead is loud but it doesn't live up to the hype

And I've been there at its loudest
 

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