Apothic Football Thread

[Apothic]

9/4 Play Euro Qualifier

Finland (+1/2 ; +1) (-120)(1 Unit Play)

*Greece has not scored a goal at home in any games since 6/24/14 (Avg. goals home is Zero)
**Finland has scored in all but 1 game away (Avg. goals scored away is 1.83)
***This will be a low scoring game with a chance of draw very high.
****Probability 30% win Greece / 35% Draw / 35% Finland Win
*****1-1 draw wins this play

 

[Jles]

Apothic, you're one of the cappers on here who's opinion I respect. I'm heading to the Argentina/Bolivia match tonight and thought about throwing a few bucks on the game to make it even more interesting. Any thoughts about team totals, either side, or the total for this one. I realize it's a friendly and I rarely bet friendlies, but thought I would check in.

 

[indiana]

Apothic.............was on the Finland play with you............nicely done.............indy

 

[Apothic]

Sorry Jles I was in my shop all day and never got online. I'm sure its too late but I'll post what I find anyway sorry man, ! Thanks for the comment!!!

 

[Apothic]

Jles I know game is started but I would have told you that Argentina in friendlies rarely losses. They are 6-2-0 last 8 friendlies. Boloivia is the opposite at 1-2-6 in friendlies. Hope you played Argentina. No % in friendlies. I'll some plays up for tomorrow soon

 

[Apothic]

Thanks Indy!

 

[Apothic]

Finland (+1/2 ; +1) (-120)(1 Unit Play)(WINNER)(Units Won 1.0)

8/30/15 (First Day of Unit Plays)

Units Play Record:7-3=70%
Units Total: +3.39

Thread: 121-91=57.07 %

 

[Apothic]

9/5 Play MLS

New England vs Orlando City (Over 2.5) (-126)(1 Unit)

*Orlando City defense is horrible, 31 goals conceded in away games and 15 scored
**New England 21 scored and 9 conceded at home
***Probabilities 80% Chance of over; Capped at 2-1 or 3-1 game for New England

8/30/15 (First Day of Unit Plays)

Units Play Record:7-3=70%
Units Total: +3.39

Thread: 121-91=57.07 %

 

[Apothic]

9/5 Play Poland League 1

Wigry Suwalki: (+132) (2-Units)

*3rd place vs 17th place
**Kluczbork at home 0-1-5
***Wigry away3-2
****61 % chance wigry wins

8/30/15 (First Day of Unit Plays)

Units Play Record:7-3=70%
Units Total: +3.39

Thread: 121-91=57.07 %

 

[indiana]

Apothic...........on the N.E. over with you........BOL with all your action..........again, thank you, appreciate you providing the info and plays............indy

 

[Apothic]

Thanks Indy. Looking at some plays now but I think the two plays posted are it for today, good luck!

 

[Apothic]

9/5 Brazil Serie A (Last Play For Today)

Atletico MG (-129)(2-Unit Play) & (-1)(+143)(2-Units)

*2nd Place vs 20th Place Team in 20 team league
**Atletico 5-2-3 Away / Vasco 2-3-6 at home
***Goal differential +16 to -33
****68% Atletico Wins / 19% Draw Possibility
*****Vasco has failed to score in last 6 games

8/30/15 (First Day of Unit Plays)

Units Play Record:7-3=70%
Units Total: +3.39

Thread: 121-91=57.07 %

 

[indiana]

Apothic.........great call with Atletico MG.........thank you...........indy

 

[Apothic]

9/5 Results

Atletico MG (-129)(2-Unit Play)(WINNER)(2-UNITS WON)

New England vs Orlando City (Over 2.5) (-126)(1 Unit)(WINNER) (1-UNIT WON)

Atletico (-1)(+143)(2-Units)(PUSH)

Wigry Suwalki: (+132) (2-Units)(LOSS)(1.51-Units Lost)

9/5 Units Won (1.49)

8/30/15 (First Day of Unit Plays)

Units Play Record:9-4-1=64.28%
Units Total: +4.48

Thread: 124-92-1=57.14 %

 

[Apothic]

9/6 Play

Poland Liga 1

Arka vs Pogon (Over 2 / 2.5) (-104)(2-Units)

*They played in may and 8 goals were scored
**67% of Pogon Home Games Go Over 2.5
***82% Chance game goes over 2.5
****Neither team is very good, Capped this one with 4 goals scored possible draw

 

[Apothic]

9/6 Play

Argentina Primera B

Gimnasia Jujuy vs Boca Unidos (Under 2)(-132)**Under 2.5 not offered (1-Unit Play)

*1 goal for Gimnasia in last 6 games / 0 goals for Boca last 6 games
**Both teams play exactly the same type of game
***60% of Gimnasia Home games go under 2.5 / 60% of Boca away Games go under 2.5
****81% Chance this goes under
*****Capped 1-0 for Gymnasia / 1-1 draw possible; then we push. 19% chance more than 2 goals scored

 

[Apothic]

9/6 Results

Arka vs Pogon (Over 2 / 2.5) (-104)(2-Units)(WNNER)(1.92 Units Won)

Gimnasia Jujuy vs Boca Unidos (Under 2)(-132) (Push)

 

[Apothic]

8/30/15 (First Day of Unit Plays)

Units Play W/L Record:10-4=71.42%
Units Total: +6.40

Thread: 125-92-12=57.60 %

 

[Apothic]

9/7 Play:

Italy Serie B

Cagliari vs Crotone (Over 2.5)(+107)(1 Unit)

Cagliari (-1/2 ; -1)(-124)(1 Unit)

*Cagliari can score. They actually beat a team 23-0 in July;(That is not a type-o) Yes 23 goals one game
** Crotone is usually good for one goal a game / defense is poor
***63% Chance this goes over 2.5 goals
****Capped 3-1 Cagliari
*****Other % (51 Cagliari Win / 23 Draw / 26 Crotone Win

8/30/15 (First Day of Unit Plays)

Units Play W/L Record:10-4=71.42%

Units Total: +6.40

Thread: 125-92-12=57.60 %

 

[indiana]

Apothic........nicely done with your winner..........came away with push (Argen.)........BOL with Monday's action..............indy