Apothic Football Thread

[Apothic]

8/28 Soccer Plays

Ireland

St. Patricks Athletic (-193)

*Home 23 scored / 7 conceded for St. Patricks
**Away 13 scored / 19 conceded for Derry
***St Pats 4-1 last 5 / Derry 2-3

Dundalk (-189)

*6-0 away for Dundalk ; 24 scored - 8 conceded
**4-1-1 hm for Bohemian ; 18 scored - 10 conceded
***This will be a close game but favorites usually win and in this game Bohemian has no home field advantage

France League 2

Laval : (+284)

*5th place vs 20th place
**This will be low scoring game
***Draw concern is higher than normal at around 50%

Draw Play *Not for thread stats

France League 2

Nancy vs Clermont (+187)

*Nancy 3 scored / 2 conceded away
**Clermont 1 scored / 0 conceded home
***#2 vs #3


2014: 56-44 = 56%

2015: 52-43= 54.73%

Thread: 108-86=55.67 %

MLB This Thread: 20-12 = 62.50%

MLB Play Pending

 

[Apothic]

MLB PLay Seattle (-120)

 

[EasyPicks]

Don't mean to be rude, but why don't you keep a units record?

55% soccer is a losing % if the average line is below -125

Thx

 

[Apothic]

8/29 Early Play

England League 1

Walsall (-117)

* 2nd place vs 24th place game
**Last 5 Blackpool 0-3-1 / Walsall 4-0-1
***Blackpool 1 scored / 4 conceded at home
****Walsall 4 scored / 1 conceded away
*****Draw concern higher than normal; just under 40%

 

[Apothic]

8/29 Early Play

England League 2

Plymouth (-126)

*2nd place vs 23rd place
**Last 4 Plymouth 3-1 / Newport Last 4 (0-3-1)
***5 scored / 3 conceded at home for Plymouth
****0 scored / 4 conceded away for Newport
*****Draw concern is average
******I have this game 3-0 / 3-1 type game

 

[Apothic]

8/29 Plays cont...

Hungary NB1:

Haladas (-117)

*Haladas last 5 away (2-2-1) 3rd place in league of 12 teams
**Bekescsaba last 5 home (0-5) 12th place in league
***Bekescsaba has allowed 13 goals last 5 home games
****Haladas has not allowed a goal in away games since May
*****Draw concern under 23%; however Haladas is a low scoring club with great defense

 

[Apothic]

8/29 Soccer Prop Bet

England League 2:

Hartlepool vs Carlisle (Both teams to score (-133 )

*Don't think this available at 5-dimes
**Capped this as a 2-1 game
***64% chance both teams score

 

[Apothic]

8/29 Over 2.5 Play & Prop Play (These odds should be much higher; play one of these if offered at your book)

Austria Bundesliga: Admira vs Austria Wien (Over 2.5 / 3.0) @ 5 dimes (-127)

Both teams to score (-182)

*73% chance over 2.5 goals
**87% chance both teams score
***In this league 70% of games 3 or more goals (3.27 avg)

 

[Apothic]

Don't mean to be rude, but why don't you keep a units record?

55% soccer is a losing % if the average line is below -125

Thx

I just post what I play easy. But I can post units on the plays. There will be fewer plays posted. It works both ways. If I post 5 plays a day and win 1 and show +units, not really someone to get too excited about. I post these and expect most people will pick which plays they like and just play those. But you have a point. I'll start tomorrow

 

[Apothic]

8/29 MLB Play: Seattle (-105)

 

[Apothic]

Unit based plays will begin Sunday

Here is how my unit plays work; this is standard money management unit play.

.5 Unit = 1% - 1.5% of bankroll

1 Unit = 2% - 3% of bankroll

2 Unit = 4% - 5% of bankroll

**There will never be anything higher than a 2-Unit Play.

***Using this strategy you will be able to absorb a losing streak (which I will have) ; and recoup your losses on winning runs

 

[Apothic]

Draw plays will never have a unit play; I just post them if I find them


8/29 Draw Play: France League 1

Lille Game Draw (+287)

 

[Apothic]

8/29 Under Play Added:

France League 1

Lille vs Ajaccio (Under 2 ; 2-1/2) (-135)

*90% chance under 2.5
**3 or more goals in this league around 28% of the time
***97% chance both teams don't score. So if not a draw; then 1-0 type game

 

[indiana]

Apothic..........thank you for the early info last night...........great calls............indy

 

[Apothic]

Thanks Indy. Good Day today !

 

[Apothic]

8/29 Recap

Walsall (-117)(WINNER)

Plymouth (-126)(WINNER)

Haladas (-117) (WINNER)

Hartlepool vs Carlisle (Both teams to score (-133 ) (WINNER)

Lille vs Ajaccio (Under 2 ; 2-1/2) (-135)(WINNER)

Admira vs Austria Wien (Over 2.5 / 3.0) @ 5 dimes (-127)(LOSS)

Admira Game Both teams to score (-182)(LOSS)

 

[Apothic]

% Recap

2014: 56-44 = 56%

2015: 57-45= 55.88%

Thread: 113-88=56.21 %

MLB This Thread: 21-12 = 63.63%

Unit Plays Starting 8/30

MLB Play Pending

 

[Apothic]

8/29 MLB Play: Seattle (-105) (WINNER)

MLB This Thread: 21-12 = 64.70%

8/30 Plays Pending...

 

[Apothic]

8/30 Soccer Plays (Units will be tracked but fewer plays posted)(See above post that denotes unit value)


Chile Primera: Colo Colo (-161) (1 unit)

*This is a 1st Place vs 15 place match
**Colo has not lost an away game and has scored 11 and conceded 4 in last 5 away games
***Antofagasta lost 4 of last 5 at home scoring 4 and conceding 7
****No draws last 5 for either team
*****Probability % are 68% Colo Wins / 20% Draw / 12% Antofagasta wins
******I have this capped 3-1 Colo

 

[Apothic]

8/30 Soccer Play

Russian Premier: CSKA Moscow (-128)(.5 Unit)

*This is a 1st Place vs 15th place match
**CSKA is 4-0-1 last 5 away / Kuban is 1-3-1 last 5 home
***Draws concern is higher in Russian Premier. Last draw between these two was 2013
****Probability % are 64% CSKA Wins / 29% Draw / 7% Kuban Wins