There is still the theory going around that Picture and Director won't be won by both The Return of the King and Peter Jackson.
....it's extremely rare that the Picture/Director split happens in consecutive years and that's in my opinion a bunch of hooey (agree with Royler and jcambert's sentiments above).
However the DGA have finally given their prize to Peter Jackson at the third time of asking yesterday and the PGA have already given their prize to The Return of the King.
....if the SAG give their Best Ensemble award to The Return of the King, the only mystery is whether or not the Academy agrees.
I don't think there's going to be any mystery in the next three weeks until the SAG awards are announced as regards the top six prizes (we're back to who nabbed the Golden Globes as to who'll get the corresponding Oscars) so I'm concentrating on the technical awards.
I'm amazed that yots could actually bet parlays at phoney SIA as most if not all bookies restrict their clients to singles when it comes to special events like these.
I'm rooting for OutKast to get Record of the Year (I have money on it!) but it seems unlikely with everyone touting Beyoncé, Eminem AND Coldplay to get the award, 50 Cent is going to make history as one of the few rappers to get Best New Artist and well, you're going to have to wait unil the end of the month to see how the Oscars work out.
$10 x 1.20 (1/5) = $12
$12 x 2.00 (evens) = $24
$24 x 3.50 (5/2) = $84
....final nail in the coffin for yots? Since when has anyone bet something like a 0.10 line? You'd OWE THEM money! LOL!
....it's extremely rare that the Picture/Director split happens in consecutive years and that's in my opinion a bunch of hooey (agree with Royler and jcambert's sentiments above).
However the DGA have finally given their prize to Peter Jackson at the third time of asking yesterday and the PGA have already given their prize to The Return of the King.
....if the SAG give their Best Ensemble award to The Return of the King, the only mystery is whether or not the Academy agrees.
I don't think there's going to be any mystery in the next three weeks until the SAG awards are announced as regards the top six prizes (we're back to who nabbed the Golden Globes as to who'll get the corresponding Oscars) so I'm concentrating on the technical awards.
I'm amazed that yots could actually bet parlays at phoney SIA as most if not all bookies restrict their clients to singles when it comes to special events like these.
I'm rooting for OutKast to get Record of the Year (I have money on it!) but it seems unlikely with everyone touting Beyoncé, Eminem AND Coldplay to get the award, 50 Cent is going to make history as one of the few rappers to get Best New Artist and well, you're going to have to wait unil the end of the month to see how the Oscars work out.
$10 x 1.20 (1/5) = $12
$12 x 2.00 (evens) = $24
$24 x 3.50 (5/2) = $84
....final nail in the coffin for yots? Since when has anyone bet something like a 0.10 line? You'd OWE THEM money! LOL!
You bet on Hey Ya? At least Outkast DID take home Album of the Year (Jesus, I shoulda known better that the Grammys WOULD pull off something craptacular like this).
50 Cent gets shut out (no skin off my nose as I didn't bet on him). I went 0-for-2 here (a good thing we didn't bother with the Grammys here on the RX. For one thing, only Intertops, BoDog and CRIS bothered to put up odds. Most books must have taken a beating at the hands of folks who put their money down on a Norah Jones sweep last year and didn't bother to put out odds.).
At least (for me anyway) Beyonce and Jay-Z didn't take Record of the Year.
....a horrible, horrible Sunday for me (I couldn't predict shiat).
I'm rooting for Keisha Castle-Hughes in two Sundays time. With money (sorry jcambert, I think I've doomed your bet!
).
50 Cent gets shut out (no skin off my nose as I didn't bet on him). I went 0-for-2 here (a good thing we didn't bother with the Grammys here on the RX. For one thing, only Intertops, BoDog and CRIS bothered to put up odds. Most books must have taken a beating at the hands of folks who put their money down on a Norah Jones sweep last year and didn't bother to put out odds.).
At least (for me anyway) Beyonce and Jay-Z didn't take Record of the Year.
....a horrible, horrible Sunday for me (I couldn't predict shiat).
I'm rooting for Keisha Castle-Hughes in two Sundays time. With money (sorry jcambert, I think I've doomed your bet!
Seabiscuit has won the ASC award (the American Society of Cinermatographers) for 'Best Cinematography' but some are convinced it won't translate to a win at the Oscars:
CURRENT OLYMPIC/THE GREEK ODDS:
-125 - Girl with a Pearl Earring
+200 - Master and Commander: the Far Side of the World
+450 - Cold Mountain
+800 - City of God
+1200 - Seabiscuit
....corresponding nominations from the ASC?
* Cold Mountain
* The Last Samurai (not nominated for an Oscar)
* The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (not nominated for an Oscar)
* Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
* Seabiscuit
....I'm severely tempted as it's at a huge 12/1 but I can't really be doing throwing my money around with what happened on Sunday at the Grammys but there's the Far from Heaven-esque fawning over Girl with a Pearl Earring and of course, you got the foreign nominee (City of God), the lush work of a film that didn't get a Best picture nomination (Cold Mountain) and you've got the other Best Picture nominee (Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World).
Maybe the epics cancelled each other out at the ASC awards? Maybe so but I expect a similar tug-o'love between the two that WEREN'T nominated at the ASC leaving it clear for Seabiscuit to pull through and get the 'surprise win'.
Unfortunately for me, I'll have to wait until TUESDAY for my money to clear through NETeller at a UK bank because Olympic aren't taking my attempts at a deposit by credit card so it looks like I've missed out on a good opportunity here.
....fear not, I am gonna have a pop at them though and get back at Olympic trying to predict another category though.
CURRENT OLYMPIC/THE GREEK ODDS:
-125 - Girl with a Pearl Earring
+200 - Master and Commander: the Far Side of the World
+450 - Cold Mountain
+800 - City of God
+1200 - Seabiscuit
....corresponding nominations from the ASC?
* Cold Mountain
* The Last Samurai (not nominated for an Oscar)
* The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (not nominated for an Oscar)
* Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
* Seabiscuit
....I'm severely tempted as it's at a huge 12/1 but I can't really be doing throwing my money around with what happened on Sunday at the Grammys but there's the Far from Heaven-esque fawning over Girl with a Pearl Earring and of course, you got the foreign nominee (City of God), the lush work of a film that didn't get a Best picture nomination (Cold Mountain) and you've got the other Best Picture nominee (Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World).
Maybe the epics cancelled each other out at the ASC awards? Maybe so but I expect a similar tug-o'love between the two that WEREN'T nominated at the ASC leaving it clear for Seabiscuit to pull through and get the 'surprise win'.
Unfortunately for me, I'll have to wait until TUESDAY for my money to clear through NETeller at a UK bank because Olympic aren't taking my attempts at a deposit by credit card so it looks like I've missed out on a good opportunity here.
....fear not, I am gonna have a pop at them though and get back at Olympic trying to predict another category though.
Just played Seabiscuit at The Greek for Best Cinematography at +1200. That is a MAJOR mistake on the number, as Seabiscuit should now either be the favorite, or clear cut number two. And, keep something in mind. It's been something like 10 or 12 years since a film has won an oscar for best cinematography without having been nominated by the ASC, which might, possibly be something to think about with regards to the current favorite and presumed front runner, GWAPE.
Jump on this one, guys, as Seabiscuit will likely be +200 or less by Oscar time.
Not saying it's a lock, by an stretch, but, even if you only think it has a 20% chance of winning the oscar, that would make it's true odds 4 to 1, and, to get it at 12 to 1 is a ridiculous error on their part.
JP
Jump on this one, guys, as Seabiscuit will likely be +200 or less by Oscar time.
Not saying it's a lock, by an stretch, but, even if you only think it has a 20% chance of winning the oscar, that would make it's true odds 4 to 1, and, to get it at 12 to 1 is a ridiculous error on their part.
JP
well, I went 1-1 last night, wasn't surprised that much to lose the song of the year, as I had Hey Ya! as well, but it was surprising to see Coldplay win it.
As for the Oscars, I'm sticking with one play, and found some good prices on Tim Robbins for best supporting actor at Olympic and Bet365. His odds at Intertops are -500 yet at Olympic you can get him at -120. Looks like a race between him and Baldwin, and, personally, I think Robbins' performace was superior. Baldwin was very good in the Cooler, but, it was still Alec Baldwin up on the screen, whereas Robbins was more successful at making you forget it was Tim Robbins up there. He was brilliant; just my opinion.
As for the Oscars, I'm sticking with one play, and found some good prices on Tim Robbins for best supporting actor at Olympic and Bet365. His odds at Intertops are -500 yet at Olympic you can get him at -120. Looks like a race between him and Baldwin, and, personally, I think Robbins' performace was superior. Baldwin was very good in the Cooler, but, it was still Alec Baldwin up on the screen, whereas Robbins was more successful at making you forget it was Tim Robbins up there. He was brilliant; just my opinion.
He is certainly the favoite, however, I don't know that he has a 55% chance or better of winning that race.
And, as for the Grammys, it wasn't really all that surprising to see Cold Play win song of the year, in fact, had I bet, I would have bet them. There were tons of people who thought they would win. And, you could have gotten them at like +800 or better at some places. They were the only NON hip hop song nominated, which is always a plus.
JP
And, as for the Grammys, it wasn't really all that surprising to see Cold Play win song of the year, in fact, had I bet, I would have bet them. There were tons of people who thought they would win. And, you could have gotten them at like +800 or better at some places. They were the only NON hip hop song nominated, which is always a plus.
JP
lol give me a break man Coldplay was the biggest upset of the night, hands-down. Maybe you could predict Clocks comparing this years noms to past winners, but, hell how long can the Grammys continue to ignore hip hop.... Hey Yah was the public choice IMO. Not that the Grammys are a popularity contest. i think they handed it to Coldplay because Outkast received the best album honors. And Robbins is close to a lock and you're going to say that he doesn't have a 55% chance to win? Did you even see Mystic River? I really don't think Baldwin or anyone else has much of a shot at this thing. Robbins is the CLEAR front-runner.
[This message was edited by Oren1 on February 09, 2004 at 07:29 PM.]
[This message was edited by Oren1 on February 09, 2004 at 07:29 PM.]
Oren, I'm not here to argue with you. Go to Golderby.com and you will see that the pundits were split evenly between Colplay and Outkast. And, considering that Coldplay was getting great odds, I would have played them, but, I don't know enough about the grammys and I don't like to gamble. I like to invest.
And, yes, I will say it again. Robbins' chances of winning, in my opinion are NOT 55% or greater. And, if you think he's a lock, you have news coming.
Not saying it's an awful bet, because, you are getting a front runner at DECENT odds, but, it's not something I would play.
I've said it before and I will say it again. The ONLY locks this year are in Picture and Director. Most every other race is wide open.
But, Oren, I've known you on here long enough to know that when you WANT above all else, to believe something, you believe it. And, I can GUARANTEE that you haven't seen the Cooler, and, I have. Baldwin's performance was far superior to Robbins', and, most critics will agree with me on that (not all, but most).
Not saying that means anything, but, Robbins is by no means a lock as you think he is. In fact, there are quite a few pundits who are predicting otherwise.
JP
And, yes, I will say it again. Robbins' chances of winning, in my opinion are NOT 55% or greater. And, if you think he's a lock, you have news coming.
Not saying it's an awful bet, because, you are getting a front runner at DECENT odds, but, it's not something I would play.
I've said it before and I will say it again. The ONLY locks this year are in Picture and Director. Most every other race is wide open.
But, Oren, I've known you on here long enough to know that when you WANT above all else, to believe something, you believe it. And, I can GUARANTEE that you haven't seen the Cooler, and, I have. Baldwin's performance was far superior to Robbins', and, most critics will agree with me on that (not all, but most).
Not saying that means anything, but, Robbins is by no means a lock as you think he is. In fact, there are quite a few pundits who are predicting otherwise.
JP
By the way, Oren, don't mistake what I'm saying as my saying that he isn't going to win. He's the CLEAR CUT one to beat and the front runner, I just don't think he's as far ahead as some other people do. For that reason, I would say he has about a 40% to 45% chance of winning, with Del Toro and Baldwin at about 25% each, and the other two guys splitting the remaining 10%. For that reason, in my eyes (matter of opinion), it's not a good bet, but, of course, if you think he's better than 55% chance to win, then it's a bet you should make.
JP
JP
I saw the Cooler, thats why I sated it was just my opinion twice, because opinions vary. I think someone else could have done that role more convincingly, Baldwen was great, don't get me wrong, but, there were a few moments when his performance just wasn't believable. For one, he was supposed to be a blood-thirsty no-holds-barred cold-blooded gangsta but I just didn't get that from him in some of the scenes, he still reminded me of the guy in Beatlejuice. I didn't say he was a lock, I said he was close to a lock. i saw Del Torro's performance as well, and really, whats hurting his and Baldwin's chances is the quality of the films they're contending in, primarily the direction in Mystic River makes Robbins look better IMO.
