jc> If you read all that Keisha hoopla and hyperbole over at 'my' stomping ground at GD then I say be cautious.
When betting on these things, I've always seemingly read merely the positive articles and negate the negative articles to legitimise why I've bet on that person or nominee winning (a horrible trait I need to erase as I need to be able to see the proverbial wood from the trees).
....also a fair few fanboys and fangirls rooting for whatever the hell they want, so sifting through what's likely to happen can be a little frustrating.
But you, Royler and Oren are all capable of looking after yourselves as your past record on these things do show.
CAN KEISHA WIN?! There's been a 'lot' of money placed on her doing so since last week and her odds do keep tumbling.
....if she wins the SAG award for Best Supporting Actress she might just very well have a chance.
It's on February 29th so I am expecting 'some' surprises.
Looking at Olympic's odds AGAIN, the only markets where there are odds-against shots are Best Documentary Feature and Best Sound Editing.
....the former looks done and dusted and I'm tempted to have a pop at that category.
When betting on these things, I've always seemingly read merely the positive articles and negate the negative articles to legitimise why I've bet on that person or nominee winning (a horrible trait I need to erase as I need to be able to see the proverbial wood from the trees).
....also a fair few fanboys and fangirls rooting for whatever the hell they want, so sifting through what's likely to happen can be a little frustrating.
But you, Royler and Oren are all capable of looking after yourselves as your past record on these things do show.
CAN KEISHA WIN?! There's been a 'lot' of money placed on her doing so since last week and her odds do keep tumbling.
....if she wins the SAG award for Best Supporting Actress she might just very well have a chance.
It's on February 29th so I am expecting 'some' surprises.
Looking at Olympic's odds AGAIN, the only markets where there are odds-against shots are Best Documentary Feature and Best Sound Editing.
....the former looks done and dusted and I'm tempted to have a pop at that category.
The only locks, and you can take these to the bank, are LOTR for picture, and PJ for director. There are no other locks in the major categories, period.
James, you make a few good points, and, I TOTALLY understand where you are coming from, however, I try to look at things from an investment perspective. Read my post on Keisha and you will see, if you analyze, that there is a very real shot that she wins this. It's the type of performance that came from so far out of nowhere, that I can all but guarantee that there is huge support for her.
Think about this for a minute...She received more votes than Nicole Kidman, who looked like a lock to be nominated. That should tell you how much support she has. And, that's the number of votes that she received in the Best Actress category. That's not counting the ton of votes that she probably got in the best supporting actress category.
I would say that she has at least a 20% chance to win this category, meaning, in my opinion, her true odds are 4 to 1 and I got better than 20 to 1 odds on her. A no brainer in my book.
As I said, I understand your points about trying to only read the good things to justify my bets, but, that's simply not the case with me. For example, there has been alot written about Diane Keaton being a real possibility and, you can mark this down...she has no shot whatsoever. There is no way that she wins best actress. If anyone is going to upset here, it's Keisha or Watts, in that order.
Again, I had Brody last year, and, I made money every year but one over the last ten years or so.
I'm confident that I will again this year.
JP
James, you make a few good points, and, I TOTALLY understand where you are coming from, however, I try to look at things from an investment perspective. Read my post on Keisha and you will see, if you analyze, that there is a very real shot that she wins this. It's the type of performance that came from so far out of nowhere, that I can all but guarantee that there is huge support for her.
Think about this for a minute...She received more votes than Nicole Kidman, who looked like a lock to be nominated. That should tell you how much support she has. And, that's the number of votes that she received in the Best Actress category. That's not counting the ton of votes that she probably got in the best supporting actress category.
I would say that she has at least a 20% chance to win this category, meaning, in my opinion, her true odds are 4 to 1 and I got better than 20 to 1 odds on her. A no brainer in my book.
As I said, I understand your points about trying to only read the good things to justify my bets, but, that's simply not the case with me. For example, there has been alot written about Diane Keaton being a real possibility and, you can mark this down...she has no shot whatsoever. There is no way that she wins best actress. If anyone is going to upset here, it's Keisha or Watts, in that order.
Again, I had Brody last year, and, I made money every year but one over the last ten years or so.
I'm confident that I will again this year.
JP
JC,
I'm aware of the Keisha support, but I don't know that several name actors can provide enough of it to sway the majority of 6,700 voters.
I agree that at 23-1, it was a great play considering her chances look far, far better than that. Every awards show is due for at least one major upset, sometimes several, and it's just a matter of grabbing as many as you can.
However close it may or may not be, Charlize is still the woman to beat here.
I'm aware of the Keisha support, but I don't know that several name actors can provide enough of it to sway the majority of 6,700 voters.
I agree that at 23-1, it was a great play considering her chances look far, far better than that. Every awards show is due for at least one major upset, sometimes several, and it's just a matter of grabbing as many as you can.
However close it may or may not be, Charlize is still the woman to beat here.
I completely agree with that statement. Charlize is still the woman to beat, and, Keisha in no way shape or form is a favorite, but, she is a significant threat.
Keep something in mind, though, regarding another point you made. You said that you don't know if a couple of actors voicing their approval and applause of her performance is enough to sway voters....Well, frankly, they may not NEED much swaying, considering that the mere fact that she was even NOMINATED was clear out of the blue. Why was she nominated in lead rather than supporting? Because she has a ton of support that maybe we all didn't think she had. I'm quite certain she received a ton of votes in supporting, and yet, she received more in lead, or she wouldn't have been nominated in lead.
Keep these points in mind. Again, this is a girl who received more votes than Nicole Kidman, who was previously thought a lock to be nominated, at teh very least, and some people actually thought that she could win.
Not saying she will win, but, there is more there than meets the eye, if only by virtue of the fact that she was even nominated...against all odds.
JP
Keep something in mind, though, regarding another point you made. You said that you don't know if a couple of actors voicing their approval and applause of her performance is enough to sway voters....Well, frankly, they may not NEED much swaying, considering that the mere fact that she was even NOMINATED was clear out of the blue. Why was she nominated in lead rather than supporting? Because she has a ton of support that maybe we all didn't think she had. I'm quite certain she received a ton of votes in supporting, and yet, she received more in lead, or she wouldn't have been nominated in lead.
Keep these points in mind. Again, this is a girl who received more votes than Nicole Kidman, who was previously thought a lock to be nominated, at teh very least, and some people actually thought that she could win.
Not saying she will win, but, there is more there than meets the eye, if only by virtue of the fact that she was even nominated...against all odds.
JP
I actually think Murray should be the favorite right now. Go to a search engine and type in "2004 oscar polls" and you will see that, on every single poll, he has a commanding lead over Penn. Of course these aren't academy members voting, but, it might be an indication of how well liked their performances were. Furthermore, Murray's performance was, by far, the more critically lauded, winning ALOT of precursor awards.
And, Aghdashloo has a great shot as well. Alot of people are now actually predicting that she will win. Don't underestimate how important it is that Cold Mountain was NOT a well liked film, and the fact that there are just as many people who HATED Renee's performance, as there are who loved it. Situations like that don't normally lead to oscar gold.
JP
And, Aghdashloo has a great shot as well. Alot of people are now actually predicting that she will win. Don't underestimate how important it is that Cold Mountain was NOT a well liked film, and the fact that there are just as many people who HATED Renee's performance, as there are who loved it. Situations like that don't normally lead to oscar gold.
JP
Read above and you will see that I endorsed Baldwin at 10 to 1. His buzz is fading, though, and, it's looking less likely, although, at 10 to 1 it was a no brainer. At 8 to 1 it's still a solid play, but, I would have to think about that one.
As for Hunter...not a chance in hell, but, you can take a shot if you wish. Mark this down...Renee aint winning it, but, it's going to go to Clarkson or Aghdashloo, and nobody else. If, by some Godly miracle none of those three win it, it would be Harden's. Hunter has about as much chance of winning this, as Finding Nemo has of winning best picture.
JP
As for Hunter...not a chance in hell, but, you can take a shot if you wish. Mark this down...Renee aint winning it, but, it's going to go to Clarkson or Aghdashloo, and nobody else. If, by some Godly miracle none of those three win it, it would be Harden's. Hunter has about as much chance of winning this, as Finding Nemo has of winning best picture.
JP
thats an very unfair compairison..Hunter/Nemo..
Hunter gave a very good performance ...Better the Harden...And while she doesn't have as many critic awards as lets say Clarkson she's not 5-1 either
Yet you're reccomending a bet on an Iranian woman who speaks crappy english..This coupled w/ the fact that we're involved in war all over the middle east....This is not a recipe for a academy win regardless of her good perfomance
Hunter gave a very good performance ...Better the Harden...And while she doesn't have as many critic awards as lets say Clarkson she's not 5-1 either
Yet you're reccomending a bet on an Iranian woman who speaks crappy english..This coupled w/ the fact that we're involved in war all over the middle east....This is not a recipe for a academy win regardless of her good perfomance
She has no chance to win, and, Shoreh is slowly, but surely becoming the favorite in the category. Just check the prognosticators. Since when are the Oscars about who deserves it the most?
The Oscars are a popularity, and buzz contest. That's all. I didn't see Hunter's performance, but, even if it wa\s the best of the year, she has ZERO chance to win, period, end of discussion.
JP
The Oscars are a popularity, and buzz contest. That's all. I didn't see Hunter's performance, but, even if it wa\s the best of the year, she has ZERO chance to win, period, end of discussion.
JP
yots> I wouldn't say it was a bunch of crap but how do you measure support when it's purely done through word of mouth?
It depends what you're feeling, reading, hearing or seeing and you have to make your OWN conclusion (Jesus! Let's try and be objective as possible here! We're not a frickin' film forum for flamin' fanboys!).
jcambert is recommending what he's betting on but you're within your rights to disagree and bet on something else.
....if you happen to best the fella come February 29th, you'll ultimately have the last laugh. Let's cut down on the unnecessary hostility here as we should all be on the same side here.
'Digital Odds' means you multiply your stake by the given figure to determine what you get back (stake included).
1.50 is 1/2. 2.00 is evens. 2.50 is 3/2. 3.00 is 2/1. And so on and so on.
....it's the year of the monkey, I'm expecting mischievous things to happen.
The two categories I'm looking at? There's been a move in Best Sound Effects Editing purely probably because of the say-so from a coupla OWers.
....other categories remain generally 'unmoved'.
It depends what you're feeling, reading, hearing or seeing and you have to make your OWN conclusion (Jesus! Let's try and be objective as possible here! We're not a frickin' film forum for flamin' fanboys!).
jcambert is recommending what he's betting on but you're within your rights to disagree and bet on something else.
....if you happen to best the fella come February 29th, you'll ultimately have the last laugh. Let's cut down on the unnecessary hostility here as we should all be on the same side here.
'Digital Odds' means you multiply your stake by the given figure to determine what you get back (stake included).
1.50 is 1/2. 2.00 is evens. 2.50 is 3/2. 3.00 is 2/1. And so on and so on.
....it's the year of the monkey, I'm expecting mischievous things to happen.
The two categories I'm looking at? There's been a move in Best Sound Effects Editing purely probably because of the say-so from a coupla OWers.
....other categories remain generally 'unmoved'.
