stuff has started coming in today....here we go cheersgif
(looks like they're trying to deaden the blow of what will be some horrific sept #'s)
#1 -
TOKYO: The International Monetary Fund has almost halved its 2014 growth projections for Japan, it said on Tuesday (Oct 7), underscoring the damage that an April consumption tax hike inflicted on the world's number three economy.
The Washington-based IMF said it now expects the economy to expand 0.9 percent this year -- against 1.6 percent growth forecast in July -- after a sharp contraction in the second quarter. It also cut its 2015 growth projection to 0.8 percent from 1.0 percent, as it called for deeper reforms to the protected and highly regulated economy.
________________________________________________________________________
#2 -
October 7, 2014 10:08 am BoJ downgrades outlook for economy
By Ben McLannahan in Tokyo
The Bank of Japan has downgraded its assessment of the world’s third-biggest economy, with one board member warning of growing challenges in its quest to hit a 2 per cent rate of inflation.
The BoJ kept its policy settings on hold after the two-day meeting that concluded on Tuesday, saying it would continue to buy enough assets to pump up Japan’s monetary base at an annual pace of about Y60tn-Y70tn ($554bn-$646bn). The economy’s “moderate recovery trend” remained intact, the bank said, adding that the aggressive stimulus programme unleashed 18 months ago with the aim of hitting a 2 per cent target for consumer price inflation “has been exerting its intended effects”.
However, the BoJ’s appraisal of economic activity was bleaker than after its last meeting on September 3-4. In particular, the policy board’s assessment of industrial production was downgraded to “weakening”, in view of a recent rapid build-up in inventories. It also noted an “uneven” recovery in private consumption and a “pause” in the rate at which business sentiment was improving, in the wake of April’s consumption-tax increase.
________________________________________________________________________
#3 - wow if they're blaming weather on august/sept imagine what they'll say about october? yeah, i'm sure it was the weather and not the sales tax. let's go with that @)
TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s Cabinet Office issued estimates show heavy rains and unusually cool weather this summer have shaved anywhere from 0.2 to 0.6 percentage points from third-quarter gross domestic product growth.
Bad weather also caused consumer spending to fall somewhere between 200 billion yen and 700 billion yen ($1.8 billion to $6.4 billion), the estimates showed. That has trimmed anywhere between 0.3 to 1 percentage points from third-quarter private consumption, which accounts for roughly 60 percent of GDP.
“Heavy rain has curbed the number of customers at restaurants and convenience stores. Sales of household appliances such as air-conditioners and beverages have been slack due to low temperature,” a Cabinet Office official said.
..... air conditioners and beverages are the backbone of the japanese economy, eh? wowza
(looks like they're trying to deaden the blow of what will be some horrific sept #'s)
#1 -
TOKYO: The International Monetary Fund has almost halved its 2014 growth projections for Japan, it said on Tuesday (Oct 7), underscoring the damage that an April consumption tax hike inflicted on the world's number three economy.
The Washington-based IMF said it now expects the economy to expand 0.9 percent this year -- against 1.6 percent growth forecast in July -- after a sharp contraction in the second quarter. It also cut its 2015 growth projection to 0.8 percent from 1.0 percent, as it called for deeper reforms to the protected and highly regulated economy.
________________________________________________________________________
#2 -
October 7, 2014 10:08 am BoJ downgrades outlook for economy
By Ben McLannahan in Tokyo
The Bank of Japan has downgraded its assessment of the world’s third-biggest economy, with one board member warning of growing challenges in its quest to hit a 2 per cent rate of inflation.
The BoJ kept its policy settings on hold after the two-day meeting that concluded on Tuesday, saying it would continue to buy enough assets to pump up Japan’s monetary base at an annual pace of about Y60tn-Y70tn ($554bn-$646bn). The economy’s “moderate recovery trend” remained intact, the bank said, adding that the aggressive stimulus programme unleashed 18 months ago with the aim of hitting a 2 per cent target for consumer price inflation “has been exerting its intended effects”.
However, the BoJ’s appraisal of economic activity was bleaker than after its last meeting on September 3-4. In particular, the policy board’s assessment of industrial production was downgraded to “weakening”, in view of a recent rapid build-up in inventories. It also noted an “uneven” recovery in private consumption and a “pause” in the rate at which business sentiment was improving, in the wake of April’s consumption-tax increase.
________________________________________________________________________
#3 - wow if they're blaming weather on august/sept imagine what they'll say about october? yeah, i'm sure it was the weather and not the sales tax. let's go with that @)
TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s Cabinet Office issued estimates show heavy rains and unusually cool weather this summer have shaved anywhere from 0.2 to 0.6 percentage points from third-quarter gross domestic product growth.
Bad weather also caused consumer spending to fall somewhere between 200 billion yen and 700 billion yen ($1.8 billion to $6.4 billion), the estimates showed. That has trimmed anywhere between 0.3 to 1 percentage points from third-quarter private consumption, which accounts for roughly 60 percent of GDP.
“Heavy rain has curbed the number of customers at restaurants and convenience stores. Sales of household appliances such as air-conditioners and beverages have been slack due to low temperature,” a Cabinet Office official said.
..... air conditioners and beverages are the backbone of the japanese economy, eh? wowza
excerpt from a solid op-ed at http://www.investing.com/analysis/dollar’s-ride-is-about-to-end-228245
By Michael Pento Forex
Oct 07, 2014 10:41AM
Under the stewardship of Shinzo Abe, the nation of Japan has become a global leader in debt, currency devaluation and inflation. Unfortunately for the Japanese, Abenomics is also leading Japan into a hyperinflationary depression, as the first of his three arrows has shot right through the yen and put a gaping hole in the wallets of every Japanese citizen.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has placed all its chips on the bet that inflation will cure all the nation’s economic problems. Making deflation public enemy number one is rather convenient when your country's public debt to GDP is the highest in the world. In order to end deflation, the central bank has purchased 70% of all newly-issued Japanese Government Bonds.All this money printing is intended to get prices rising, and it has been very successful.Japan's consumer prices rose 3.1 percent in August from a year earlier. Prices for fuel, light and water rose 6.4 percent on the year. But as real wages continue to fall, the bull’s eye appears to be directed on destroying the Japanese middle class.
In the nonsensical world of Abenomics--where inflation is viewed to be the progenitor of growth--the 3.1% CPI reading is deemed to be insufficient. This is because the core rate of 1.1 percent was far shy of the 2% read they are aiming for. So, as expected, there are calls coming from the lobotomized economic experts in Japan for yet more money printing from the BOJ.
Japan’s “experiment” with Abenomics would be much more interesting if we didn’t already know how it all ends. This so called experiment of massive debt monetization has already been tried in countries such as Weimar Germany and, more recently, in Zimbabwe; with disastrous results. The misguided policy of using inflation to create growth is predictably causing asset bubbles in JGBs and stocks. The BOJ is tirelessly printing money to monetize nearly all of the Japanese government’s enormous debt load and also to buy stocks. This has ballooned its equity portfolio alone to be an estimated 7 trillion yen ($63.6 billion). However, all this has done nothing to boost real GDP, balance trade or boost real wages. In fact, Industrial production shrank 1.5 percent month-on-month in August and spending among Japanese households fell a steeper-than-expected 4.7 percent.
The Japanese economy has reached the point of no return. The BOJ will continue to print yen until the citizens of Japan, unable to take any more pain from intractable inflation, insist on a change of course. The real solution for Japan will be to explicitly default on its monstrous debt.
Japanese citizens—if they have any discretionary investment income left—should be aggressively selling their paper money and buying gold. And it won’t be long before all holders of fiat currencies are forced to do the same.
Disclosure: Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies and Author of the book “The Coming Bond Market Collapse.”
By Michael Pento Forex
Oct 07, 2014 10:41AM
Under the stewardship of Shinzo Abe, the nation of Japan has become a global leader in debt, currency devaluation and inflation. Unfortunately for the Japanese, Abenomics is also leading Japan into a hyperinflationary depression, as the first of his three arrows has shot right through the yen and put a gaping hole in the wallets of every Japanese citizen.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has placed all its chips on the bet that inflation will cure all the nation’s economic problems. Making deflation public enemy number one is rather convenient when your country's public debt to GDP is the highest in the world. In order to end deflation, the central bank has purchased 70% of all newly-issued Japanese Government Bonds.All this money printing is intended to get prices rising, and it has been very successful.Japan's consumer prices rose 3.1 percent in August from a year earlier. Prices for fuel, light and water rose 6.4 percent on the year. But as real wages continue to fall, the bull’s eye appears to be directed on destroying the Japanese middle class.
In the nonsensical world of Abenomics--where inflation is viewed to be the progenitor of growth--the 3.1% CPI reading is deemed to be insufficient. This is because the core rate of 1.1 percent was far shy of the 2% read they are aiming for. So, as expected, there are calls coming from the lobotomized economic experts in Japan for yet more money printing from the BOJ.
Japan’s “experiment” with Abenomics would be much more interesting if we didn’t already know how it all ends. This so called experiment of massive debt monetization has already been tried in countries such as Weimar Germany and, more recently, in Zimbabwe; with disastrous results. The misguided policy of using inflation to create growth is predictably causing asset bubbles in JGBs and stocks. The BOJ is tirelessly printing money to monetize nearly all of the Japanese government’s enormous debt load and also to buy stocks. This has ballooned its equity portfolio alone to be an estimated 7 trillion yen ($63.6 billion). However, all this has done nothing to boost real GDP, balance trade or boost real wages. In fact, Industrial production shrank 1.5 percent month-on-month in August and spending among Japanese households fell a steeper-than-expected 4.7 percent.
The Japanese economy has reached the point of no return. The BOJ will continue to print yen until the citizens of Japan, unable to take any more pain from intractable inflation, insist on a change of course. The real solution for Japan will be to explicitly default on its monstrous debt.
Japanese citizens—if they have any discretionary investment income left—should be aggressively selling their paper money and buying gold. And it won’t be long before all holders of fiat currencies are forced to do the same.
Disclosure: Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies and Author of the book “The Coming Bond Market Collapse.”
oh yeah, great data....
TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's unemployment rate dropped to 3.5% in August from 3.8% the previous month, marking the first improvement in three months, government data showed Tuesday, but the reduction was not necessarily a positive sign for the nation's economy, according to an official.
Behind the fall in the rate is that unemployed women stopped looking for a job, the official at the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said, indicating they have given up entering the workforce with the April 1 consumption tax hike hurting the economy.
Thus far, economists have yet to ascertain whether the women leaving the workplace had been doing so of their own volition, or if they were being discouraged from joining or returning to the labor market after bearing children, which would be in direct contravention of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's globally announced " Womenomics" policy.
[h=1]
Japan's Hidden Unemployment Problem[/h] September 26, 2014, 04:07:56 PM EDT
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By Alpha Now at Thomson Reuters : By Philip Lachowycz
Basic pay is at last rising in Japan, but only in cash terms. After adjusting for inflation, real wages are falling rapidly. If Abenomics is to succeed, the household sector must play a part in the recovery. At a minimum, that requires that increases in wages more than keep pace with increases in prices. In Japan, the ratio of job openings to applicants now stands at 1.10. It is not only above its pre-crisis peak of 1.07, it is at its highest level in more than 20 years. The Bank of Japan hopes that a tighter labour market will put upward pressure on wages, encouraging more consumption.
In this week's News in Charts, we dig a little deeper into the Japanese labour market and find a considerable amount of hidden unemployment. Since the late 1990s, when it became clear that the Japanese economy was in crisis, the Japanese labour market has undergone a significant degree of structural change that is not readily apparent in headline indicators, such as the unemployment rate. Employers are increasingly looking to offer only part-time work, to a labour force that still yearns for the security and the income offered by a full-time job. That means that the jobs on offer are less well suited to those looking for work than they used to be. In the economics jargon, the degree of mismatch in the Japanese labour market has risen, and upward pressure on wages is less than indicators such as the ratio of job openings to applicants might suggest.
Japan's ageing population means the supply of labour is falling …
Japan's demographic problems are well recognised. From the mid-1990s, the dependency ratio - the number of people under 15 or over 64 as a proportion of the number of people between 15 and 64 - has risen sharply. With older age groups less likely to look for work, the consequence is a dramatic fall in the participation rate - and by extension a dramatic fall in labour supply. As our chart shows, the bulk of the fall in participation since the mid-1990s is a consequence of the ageing population.
But Japan is not the only country that has an ageing population. US participation started to turn around 2000 as the post-war Baby Boomers began to move into retirement. Most of the decline in US participation in recent years is also a consequence of demographics. Looking across countries, Japan's participation rate hardly looks extreme. Its participation rate is close to that of Germany, and higher than that of the euro area as a whole.
...but the demand for labour is falling faster
Average hours worked in Japan have been on a downward trend since at least the 1970s. This is a common feature of developed economies. As people become better off, they chose to work fewer hours. Nevertheless, there is a cyclical as well as a structural element to average hours, and the leveling off of average hours over the past two to three years hardly suggests a labour market that is in danger of overheating.
A shift towards part-time working accounts for a good part of the decline in average hours beyond the late 1990s. Contrary to common perception, nearly 40% of Japan's workforce is now employed part-time. The protected 'job-for-life' culture, by which graduates used to enter companies and stay there for the rest of their careers, is not the current ethos. The chart below shows that the share of part-time workers in total workers has more than doubled over the past 30 years. And this is not purely a consequence of increased female participation. Women are more likely to work part-time, yes, but the proportion of males that are working part-time has more than doubled since the late 1990s.
According to an occasional survey undertaken by Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, much of the rise in part-time employment has been involuntary. The survey finds that the proportion of part-time workers who would rather work full-time has more than doubled since the late 1990s, from around one in ten to almost one in five. As the chart below shows, the number of part-time workers in Japan who would rather work full-time - the so-called 'underemployed' - exceeds the number of unemployed people by almost 50%. In that regard, Japan's underemployment problem might be considered larger than that of either the US or the UK.
A mismatched labour market
Japan's rising underemployment problem is mirrored in an increase in labour market mismatch. Changes in the efficiency with which unemployed workers are able to match with vacancies is often assessed using a simple scatter plot of the unemployment rate against the unfilled vacancy rate - known as the 'Beveridge Curve'. The sample in our chart is divided into two periods. The orange dots represent the period before the depths of Japan's economic crisis in the late 1990s. The blue dots reflect the post-crisis period. Since the crisis hit, there has been a notable rightward shift in the Beveridge Curve. At any unemployment rate, the level of vacancies associated with a given degree of wage pressure will tend to be higher because the jobs on offer are less well suited to the pool of unemployed workers.
The degree of mismatch in the Japanese labour market, with an excess supply of part-time jobs, and an excess demand for full-time jobs, resulting in a significant degree of underemployment, is evident in wage rates. For the past 15 years, hourly wages offered for part-time work have been rising, while hourly wages offered for full-time work have been on a clear downward trend.
Conclusions
The BoJ believes that the labour market is tight enough to bring about a sustained increase in real wages. In our view it is not - at least not yet. The existence of a significant amount of underemployment means that Japan's labour market is less tight than it might at first appear. Since the depths of Japan's economic crisis back in the late 1990s, there has been a move away from the old 'job-for-life' culture, to one where the focus is on more part-time and temporary employment. A meaningful pick-up in wage growth is likely to be preceded by a switch from part-time into full-time employment. There are signs that this is happening in some industries, such as catering and construction, where there are severe labour shortages. But for now it is the exception, rather than the norm. The trend towards more part-time work that has been in place since the late 1990s remains. Real wages continue to fall sharply. And if next year's planned increase in the rate of VAT from 8% to 10% goes ahead, this will only add to the woes of Japan's struggling household sector.
Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/japans-hidden-unemployment-problem-cm395873#ixzz3Fq8HCPms
Japan's Hidden Unemployment Problem[/h] September 26, 2014, 04:07:56 PM EDT
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By Alpha Now at Thomson Reuters : By Philip Lachowycz
Basic pay is at last rising in Japan, but only in cash terms. After adjusting for inflation, real wages are falling rapidly. If Abenomics is to succeed, the household sector must play a part in the recovery. At a minimum, that requires that increases in wages more than keep pace with increases in prices. In Japan, the ratio of job openings to applicants now stands at 1.10. It is not only above its pre-crisis peak of 1.07, it is at its highest level in more than 20 years. The Bank of Japan hopes that a tighter labour market will put upward pressure on wages, encouraging more consumption.
In this week's News in Charts, we dig a little deeper into the Japanese labour market and find a considerable amount of hidden unemployment. Since the late 1990s, when it became clear that the Japanese economy was in crisis, the Japanese labour market has undergone a significant degree of structural change that is not readily apparent in headline indicators, such as the unemployment rate. Employers are increasingly looking to offer only part-time work, to a labour force that still yearns for the security and the income offered by a full-time job. That means that the jobs on offer are less well suited to those looking for work than they used to be. In the economics jargon, the degree of mismatch in the Japanese labour market has risen, and upward pressure on wages is less than indicators such as the ratio of job openings to applicants might suggest.
Japan's ageing population means the supply of labour is falling …
Japan's demographic problems are well recognised. From the mid-1990s, the dependency ratio - the number of people under 15 or over 64 as a proportion of the number of people between 15 and 64 - has risen sharply. With older age groups less likely to look for work, the consequence is a dramatic fall in the participation rate - and by extension a dramatic fall in labour supply. As our chart shows, the bulk of the fall in participation since the mid-1990s is a consequence of the ageing population.
But Japan is not the only country that has an ageing population. US participation started to turn around 2000 as the post-war Baby Boomers began to move into retirement. Most of the decline in US participation in recent years is also a consequence of demographics. Looking across countries, Japan's participation rate hardly looks extreme. Its participation rate is close to that of Germany, and higher than that of the euro area as a whole.
...but the demand for labour is falling faster
Average hours worked in Japan have been on a downward trend since at least the 1970s. This is a common feature of developed economies. As people become better off, they chose to work fewer hours. Nevertheless, there is a cyclical as well as a structural element to average hours, and the leveling off of average hours over the past two to three years hardly suggests a labour market that is in danger of overheating.
A shift towards part-time working accounts for a good part of the decline in average hours beyond the late 1990s. Contrary to common perception, nearly 40% of Japan's workforce is now employed part-time. The protected 'job-for-life' culture, by which graduates used to enter companies and stay there for the rest of their careers, is not the current ethos. The chart below shows that the share of part-time workers in total workers has more than doubled over the past 30 years. And this is not purely a consequence of increased female participation. Women are more likely to work part-time, yes, but the proportion of males that are working part-time has more than doubled since the late 1990s.
According to an occasional survey undertaken by Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, much of the rise in part-time employment has been involuntary. The survey finds that the proportion of part-time workers who would rather work full-time has more than doubled since the late 1990s, from around one in ten to almost one in five. As the chart below shows, the number of part-time workers in Japan who would rather work full-time - the so-called 'underemployed' - exceeds the number of unemployed people by almost 50%. In that regard, Japan's underemployment problem might be considered larger than that of either the US or the UK.
A mismatched labour market
Japan's rising underemployment problem is mirrored in an increase in labour market mismatch. Changes in the efficiency with which unemployed workers are able to match with vacancies is often assessed using a simple scatter plot of the unemployment rate against the unfilled vacancy rate - known as the 'Beveridge Curve'. The sample in our chart is divided into two periods. The orange dots represent the period before the depths of Japan's economic crisis in the late 1990s. The blue dots reflect the post-crisis period. Since the crisis hit, there has been a notable rightward shift in the Beveridge Curve. At any unemployment rate, the level of vacancies associated with a given degree of wage pressure will tend to be higher because the jobs on offer are less well suited to the pool of unemployed workers.
The degree of mismatch in the Japanese labour market, with an excess supply of part-time jobs, and an excess demand for full-time jobs, resulting in a significant degree of underemployment, is evident in wage rates. For the past 15 years, hourly wages offered for part-time work have been rising, while hourly wages offered for full-time work have been on a clear downward trend.
Conclusions
The BoJ believes that the labour market is tight enough to bring about a sustained increase in real wages. In our view it is not - at least not yet. The existence of a significant amount of underemployment means that Japan's labour market is less tight than it might at first appear. Since the depths of Japan's economic crisis back in the late 1990s, there has been a move away from the old 'job-for-life' culture, to one where the focus is on more part-time and temporary employment. A meaningful pick-up in wage growth is likely to be preceded by a switch from part-time into full-time employment. There are signs that this is happening in some industries, such as catering and construction, where there are severe labour shortages. But for now it is the exception, rather than the norm. The trend towards more part-time work that has been in place since the late 1990s remains. Real wages continue to fall sharply. And if next year's planned increase in the rate of VAT from 8% to 10% goes ahead, this will only add to the woes of Japan's struggling household sector.
Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/japans-hidden-unemployment-problem-cm395873#ixzz3Fq8HCPms
Scum looks at 20+ years of economic malaise and calls it a success. Much like Obama's ecoonmy, the epitome of perfection. He embraces failure which creates dependency on big government. The epitome of a perfect government in his world. It takes a village in libtardville, it takes politicians to rock your world.
The LPR is at or near all time lows creating a misleading UE rate
Surprise surprise surprise, it's how they roll, it's necessity, it's the essence of their soul
The LPR is at or near all time lows creating a misleading UE rate
Surprise surprise surprise, it's how they roll, it's necessity, it's the essence of their soul
Japan downgraded by Moody's amid rising fears over debt
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30279644
Moody's has cut Japan's credit rating by one notch over rising doubts about its ability to reduce debt levels.
The decision by the ratings agency sent the yen to a seven-year low against the US dollar.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Abenomics (aka akphidelt-onomics) still close to perfect in Japan! What a shocker.
:Carcajada::Carcajada::Carcajada::Carcajada::Carcajada:
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30279644
Moody's has cut Japan's credit rating by one notch over rising doubts about its ability to reduce debt levels.
The decision by the ratings agency sent the yen to a seven-year low against the US dollar.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Abenomics (aka akphidelt-onomics) still close to perfect in Japan! What a shocker.
:Carcajada::Carcajada::Carcajada::Carcajada::Carcajada:
Japan downgraded by Moody's amid rising fears over debt
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30279644
Moody's has cut Japan's credit rating by one notch over rising doubts about its ability to reduce debt levels.
The decision by the ratings agency sent the yen to a seven-year low against the US dollar.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Abenomics (aka akphidelt-onomics) still close to perfect in Japan! What a shocker.
:Carcajada::Carcajada::Carcajada::Carcajada::Carcajada:
"but, but, but it's basic math" -- AAAAKKTARDDDD
