80% of bets have been placed on Oregon yet the line has moved the other way?

[GoSooners]

There is a difference between line movement and reverse line movement. The games you mentioned with regular line movement, I agree means nothing. Its reverse line movement thats significant.

Reverse line movement is a solid handicapping factor, as well as betting against the public. There are 2 "systems" regarding bet percentages and line movement that are significant. they are:

1) Play ON dogs of 3-14 that receive less that 35% of public action. 62-27 since 05/06, and 5-2 this year. Wins were OK ST, ND, Clemson, Nebraska, CMU. Losses were Texas and Col St.
2) Play ON dogs with Less than 35% of public action, AND the line moves 1 point or more (ex +5 to +4). 22-7 since 05/06, 2-0 this year. Boise St and Illinois St (includes playoffs from other divisions).

You can dispute the numbers, question the accuracy of the wagers, whatever. The numbers aren't locked up in the Pentagon. The books contribute the data to companies such as Sports Insights, and I'm sure there is some sort of compensation for the data. Its bet data, not the launch codes.

Good post. I'm still amazed at how many people don't take the public consensus numbers seriously. We've already seen in this thread who they (he) is. This is basic 21st century gambling 101. People seem to refuse to believe that there are people out there that know something we (as the general public) don't. It's called inside information and it exists. Now are they sometimes wrong? Of course. But I've been following the numbers long enough to know they are right much more than they are wrong when we have strong against the grain line movement.. To the point where it's caused me to go back and reconsider a potential play and see what I missed. RLM is something that shouldn't be taken lightly. Especially when it's going against the higher percentage public plays.

 

[Enfuego]

Your goofy posts say a lot about you as a person.

You've had a bad bowl season, I'm trying to help you.

You're a disrespectful poster that attacks guys you've never met for no good reason. You would never be sitting in a bar talking sports with a guy and just call them stupid. I don't like you, don't respect anything you say and want nothing to do with anything you post at the RX period.

 

[REDEYE]

Good post. I'm still amazed at how many people don't take the public consensus numbers seriously. We've already seen in this thread who they (he) is. This is basic 21st century gambling 101. People seem to refuse to believe that there are people out there that know something we (as the general public) don't. It's called inside information and it exists. Now are they sometimes wrong? Of course. But I've been following the numbers long enough to know they are right much more than they are wrong when we have strong against the grain line movement.. To the point where it's caused me to go back and reconsider a potential play and see what I missed. RLM is something that shouldn't be taken lightly. Especially when it's going against the higher percentage public plays.

the only way I would subscribe to these theories is if I played every single game where you thought you had your advantage...You just can't pick and choose games at random.. In the past I have played systems , where I felt to be successful, I had to play my system and not vary from it

 

[Biz]

the only way I would subscribe to these theories is if I played every single game where you thought you had your advantage...You just can't pick and choose games at random.. In the past I have played systems , where I felt to be successful, I had to play my system and not vary from it

That's precisely what you do, play every single game where you have an advantage. Nobody is advocating picking and choosing games at random, that is the opposite of what you do when you have found a "system" that is profitable.

 

[Acebb]

You're a disrespectful poster that attacks guys you've never met for no good reason. You would never be sitting in a bar talking sports with a guy and just call them stupid. I don't like you, don't respect anything you say and want nothing to do with anything you post at the RX period.

I'm sorry you feel the need to make silly posts and respond with outright lies and non sequiturs. Perhaps if you didn't do that, you wouldn't be "attacked"

Oh, I looked at the William Hill twitter feed. Didn't see any tweet about the bet % they are receiving on this game.

 

[Acebb]

There is a difference between line movement and reverse line movement. The games you mentioned with regular line movement, I agree means nothing. Its reverse line movement thats significant.

Reverse line movement is a solid handicapping factor, as well as betting against the public. There are 2 "systems" regarding bet percentages and line movement that are significant. they are:

1) Play ON dogs of 3-14 that receive less that 35% of public action. 62-27 since 05/06, and 5-2 this year. Wins were OK ST, ND, Clemson, Nebraska, CMU. Losses were Texas and Col St.
2) Play ON dogs with Less than 35% of public action, AND the line moves 1 point or more (ex +5 to +4). 22-7 since 05/06, 2-0 this year. Boise St and Illinois St (includes playoffs from other divisions).

You can dispute the numbers, question the accuracy of the wagers, whatever. The numbers aren't locked up in the Pentagon. The books contribute the data to companies such as Sports Insights, and I'm sure there is some sort of compensation for the data. Its bet data, not the launch codes.

Biz, generally speaking I agree with you. My only issue here is that this poster is not being accurate with the 80% claim. And, RLM has not been profitable this bowl year.

I think you missed UTEP and Ole Miss from you list in #1?

 

[GoSooners]

I wish it was 80% since I'm kind of liking Ohio State. But the problem is we have had very few of those kinds of extreme favorites this bowl season. The only team I recall being close to that number was Arizona State, and they didn't cover. When we do get numbers over 80% it's always a concern for me if I like the favorite. Even if there isn't any RLM.

 

[Enfuego]

I'm sorry you feel the need to make silly posts and respond with outright lies and non sequiturs. Perhaps if you didn't do that, you wouldn't be "attacked"

Oh, I looked at the William Hill twitter feed. Didn't see any tweet about the bet % they are receiving on this game.

Please stay out of my threads. I will not respond to you ever again at the RX.

You are precisely the reason posters stop posting stuff in the sports forums or leave altogether. I am not a liar and never have been. I consider integrity to be a pretty important personal trait.

Betall made it a very clear point at the start of the year to not bash posters in their personal picks thread. You didn't get the memo.

 

[Enfuego]

Oregon now -5.5. Hope you got OSU at +7.

 

[Acebb]

Please stay out of my threads. I will not respond to you ever again at the RX.

You are precisely the reason posters stop posting stuff in the sports forums or leave altogether. I am not a liar and never have been. I consider integrity to be a pretty important personal trait.

Betall made it a very clear point at the start of the year to not bash posters in their personal picks thread. You didn't get the memo.

You lied about Dan Marino dropping in the '83 draft.

You lied about William Hill Tweeting about this game.

I'll sit in the corner and cry now that a 48% picker and liar won't respond to me.

 

[Acebb]

I wish it was 80% since I'm kind of liking Ohio State. But the problem is we have had very few of those kinds of extreme favorites this bowl season. The only team I recall being close to that number was Arizona State, and they didn't cover. When we do get numbers over 80% it's always a concern for me if I like the favorite. Even if there isn't any RLM.

One of the more profitable angles I have observed is when 70% or more are on one side and a majority of books don't move the line. Last night New Orleans in the NBA and last weekend with the Ravens.

 

[EVincent]

Either way its still around 50% or so.

 

[Biz]

Biz, generally speaking I agree with you. My only issue here is that this poster is not being accurate with the 80% claim. And, RLM has not been profitable this bowl year.

I think you missed UTEP and Ole Miss from you list in #1?

Those weren't RLM plays. At least according to the Bet % I use.

It has to be significant RLM, where the public is solidly (> 65%) on one side.

 

[quantumleap]

There's absolutely no way books release that information. The percentage on each side perhaps but never the money on each side. Obviously money is moving the line down however.

As for what it means or its value. It means something. Not everything but it can be useful

Beat me to it.

 

[Biz]

Correct. Its about Bet %. I've already explained why its not a top secret, that the books don't care about giving this info out.

When the Public is on one side, and the line moves the other way, thats all you need to know. You don't need the money total, the line lets you know.

 

[MileenaWins]

I dreamed last night that I found a photo of myself wearing Ohio St gear. Is this a sign?!

 

[tmader7]

I dreamed last night that I found a photo of myself wearing Ohio St gear. Is this a sign?!

I don't know, I dreamt you were standing on my bed with those knives in your hands....that a sign?

~T~

 

[crazycat]

You lied about Dan Marino dropping in the '83 draft.

You lied about William Hill Tweeting about this game.

I'll sit in the corner and cry now that a 48% picker and liar won't respond to me.

Just drop it. You are a total asshat.

 

[ThaDude]

According to Peter Childs of Sportsbook.ag, many football bettors are skipping the points and going right to Ohio State’s moneyline, grabbing the Buckeyes as big as +190 to win outright inside AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas Monday.

“That game has seen tons and tons of Ohio State moneyline action,” Childs tells Covers. “To the point that we’re at -200 on Oregon when they’re a 6.5-point favorite. Usually a 6.5-point favorite would be in the -250 range, but our liability on the moneyline as well as Ohio State’s future action has taken this moneyline down to -200, giving only +170 on Ohio State. But our customers are even taking that number.”



-Of course 80% of the bets are not on Oregon. Awful post.

One of the best posts of the thread came from the biggest asshat, but I will bump it anyway...

You are getting HORRENDOUS value if you play Ohio St. Moneyline right now. Don't do it.

Depending on what side you like, take the points with Oh st. or take Oregon on the ML imo.

 

[Acebb]

Just drop it. You are a total asshat.

You're a disrespectful poster that attacks guys you've never met for no good reason.

80% LMFAO

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "When we opened the game on January 2nd, 85 percent of cash in the first 10 hours was on Oregon -7, so we moved the Ducks to -7.5. On January 4th, we got sharp play on the Buckeyes +7.5, so moved Ducks back to -7. Another sharp play game on Ohio State +7 on January 7th, so moved Oregon to -6.5. January 10th, we moved Oregon to -6, to stay in line with most of the market. Betting trends: 65 percent of cash and 69 percent of bets on the spread are backing the Ducks. 75 percent of cash on the moneyline is taking the Buckeyes +160 (Moneyline opened Oregon -240/Buckeyes +200). Total opened 74.5, climbed to 75.5 and now is at 75. No sharp action on it. 57 percent of bets on the OVER and 5 percent of cash on the UNDER."
Mike Jerome, TopBet.eu.