Ohio St covers.......either team wins by 3 in our first ever playoff championship game......
I'm showing more along the lines of 68-70% on the Ducks with the line going from 7 down to 6, so by definition that is RLM. However, something to consider is that in games with high totals such as this (74.5) RLM is not as important because of the Ducks penchant for scoring on offense they could easily cover the 6 point spread at any time. When the Ducks have been flying high on offense, they are spread covering machines.
In terms of Ohio St. ML, it looks like you can get +180/185 right now at most shops, which is pretty much in line with what it should be according to this spread to ML converter tool: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tools/spread-ml-converter/
Interesting to note the difference between CFB and NFL when it comes to the dog ML, NFL pays more. Perhaps that is due to greater variance in CFB?
In terms of Ohio St. ML, it looks like you can get +180/185 right now at most shops, which is pretty much in line with what it should be according to this spread to ML converter tool: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tools/spread-ml-converter/
Interesting to note the difference between CFB and NFL when it comes to the dog ML, NFL pays more. Perhaps that is due to greater variance in CFB?
I'm showing 67-33%, which in my 100 years of doing this isn't of great consequence either way. Now if it was up around 75% or higher for Oregon and we still had RLM I would definitely be concerned if I was on the Ducks. But right now 3 days before the game we are probably getting a few public reverse trap plays by some of these bigger betting syndicates. I know for example the public was on TCU at around 67-68% and we were getting a lot of posts around here saying EVERYBODY is on TCU, aren't you worried? kind of stuff. Well, no because anything under 70% isn't what i would consider a huge public side, no matter what they are posting in here. Just my 2 cents...
You are absolutely correct. There is also no way for ANYONE in here to verify the information that they are getting. Do you really think that the books are going to release that information to a bunch of flunkies? Get real. You people really need to get a life and stop worrying about what others are doing. Wager on the team that you think will win/cover and leave the rest alone. You people wonder why you lose so much money every season. Here is one reason. You concern yourself about meaningless information instead of concerning youselves about the teams.
You have provided zero evidence to support your ridiculous contention.
Underdog Ohio State has drawn significant action from professional bettors in Las Vegas, prompting several sports books to move the line in the College Football Playoff National Championship from Oregon -7 to -6.5 early this week.
I've provided 2 references. You've provided zero.
Some other notables:
Ohio State Buckeyes are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog, with a 10-0 against-the-spread and 7-3 straight-up record when receiving 3.5 points or more.
Oregon is 9-0 SU and ATS over its last nine games with its ninth straight win by double digits. They are also 4-0 SU and ATS last 4 bowl games.
The OVER is 15-2 in Ohio State's last 17 games and 7-3 in Oregon's last 10 games against Big Ten opponents.
BOL as always Enfuego, just hoping my Ducks win outright.....
I create a thread stating why I think Ohio St. will cover. You enter my thread and call me stupid. You also called me dumb yesterday in the Muslim thread.
Why are you so downright disrespectful to me and other posters here? Your approach to me as a person is a perfect example as to why people stop posting here.
What is your problem with me?
I mean, William Hill Tweeted yesterday that 80% of their action is on the Ducks. Is the information you have more reputable than one of the largest books that's actually taking in the action?
What else do you want me to say? Do you think I'm making this information up?
That "tons and tons" of information quote you provide is about the OSU ML. I already said the money coming in is roughly 50-50 with a ton of that on the ML. The actual number of wagers is with Oregon by a long shot.
Am I saying something inaccurate here?
I think you are being typically obtuse.
80% from 1 book is not "80% of bets" So why didn't you entitle the thread "80% of bets at William Hill"?
Anyway, I went back and looked at the RLM bowl games:
Colorado State +4.5 -> +3 (L)
Duke +8 -> +7 (W)
Minnesota +5.5 -> +3 (L)
Boise St. +3.5 (some places 4)-> +2.5 (W)
Note some of the biggest line move favorites: Pitt, Washington, LSU, and Oklahoma (all games moved at least 2 points) lost outright. The people moving the lines got killed during this bowl season.
But by all means, hitch your wagon to this.
Says the guy that went 1-2 in the Bowls after coming off as a blowhard knowitall
There is a difference between line movement and reverse line movement. The games you mentioned with regular line movement, I agree means nothing. Its reverse line movement thats significant.
Reverse line movement is a solid handicapping factor, as well as betting against the public. There are 2 "systems" regarding bet percentages and line movement that are significant. they are:
1) Play ON dogs of 3-14 that receive less that 35% of public action. 62-27 since 05/06, and 5-2 this year. Wins were OK ST, ND, Clemson, Nebraska, CMU. Losses were Texas and Col St.
2) Play ON dogs with Less than 35% of public action, AND the line moves 1 point or more (ex +5 to +4). 22-7 since 05/06, 2-0 this year. Boise St and Illinois St (includes playoffs from other divisions).
You can dispute the numbers, question the accuracy of the wagers, whatever. The numbers aren't locked up in the Pentagon. The books contribute the data to companies such as Sports Insights, and I'm sure there is some sort of compensation for the data. Its bet data, not the launch codes.
