61-24 and have LOST money!!! love you all, BUT....

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mfg,

you are probably one of the most astute cappers here. there are a lot of good cappers, and as a sideline i like to try to figure out how they cap. and i after a while i can usually figure out how they cap games. with you sir, i have found no method to your successful capping. kudos to you.
i apologize about posting so late, but there is a reason for that -- my brother and myself have clients to attend to before i get on here. we are not real big, a lot of them are wealthy friends of my father, but we've been doing it for 12 years now, and we haven't lost one -- we shouldn't we are good at what we do. but i feel i owe it to them to take care of their needs prior to me getting on here. want to also mention, i LOVE your 2nd half plays. i've never been one to use them as an investment vehicle-- my grandfather (who really taught me how to cap) told me to stay away from them! and i always heeded his advice. yet, you seem to have quite a handle on it -- i have picked up on a few things you do on 2nd halfs, and i REALLY appreciate that. thank you.

gl
 

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hansen,

always go with your instincts man. never waver!~
 

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Hansen:

Believe it or not we have some things in common I would like to share. First, I have been in this business for over 30 years and in those years have only had 3 losing years. The highest percentage I ever had for a season was in my prime in the mid 80's when I hit for 64%. The lowest season I ever had was 47%. As a result, in 1989, I bought property in Las Vegas and actually took a year off from my career to compete in the first years of the Hilton contest as well as the old Castaways. Remember that? I too used this business to supplement my income and wanted to see how I would do and found that I was able to compete at a professional level and thus have remained active for all these years.

We also share somewhat of a tie in our professions. I graduated from the University of California in 1970 with a Bachelor of Science degree in Mechanical Engineering then went on to get my state license and lead a successful 28 year career in design and construction for one of the most beautiful cities in the world, ultimately retiring early at the age of 50 due to a successful career, sound financial investments, and the supplemental income from 30 years in this business.

There is a reason that I am telling you all of this as I have lived what you feel. When we are successful in our careers, or in your case, the construction business, we know that the money is going to flow continuously and we can get trapped by having the money and then just playing with it in this business. Because you are aware that income is coming steadily, you might tend to have more action then needed. This is why I mentioned a separate bankroll must be established and set aside. You must treat this just like you would your business. Start with the capital and make it grow. You wouldn't take wild action with your construction business and you should treat this just the same. This is key to being successful. You must ask yourself. Do I just want to have action or do I really want to make a long term profit and continuously supplement my income? The latter must be your goal otherwise you will ultimately not be successful.

My goal was to retire early and I had to treat this endeavor as a business and not gambling in order to achieve this goal. This is why I have said many times on this forum that I have seen some of the very best handicappers broken because they lack the ability to set long term goals and use proper discipline and money management. If you can just ask yourself the honest question: do I need action or do I want to make a long term income, you will head toward the positive path. The reason you are discouraged is because you know that you are capable of providing supplemental income but this year, although your handicapping was solid, you have negative return for your hard work. This would not happen in your construction business, so you must not let it happen in this business and I do mean "business". I have said this often in this forum as well. We are not here to gamble. This is a business to show a profit.

I hope you don't mind my lengthy rambling, but I am really trying to show you that you have what it takes to be successful but you must ask yourself those tough questions, then set goals, and remain disciplined. Trust your own judgment and you will be successful.
 

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Ted, very well stated! Did you happen to know Mort Olshan or his son Gary? The best of the best! LT
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LT:

I knew them but not personally. Of course, Mort passed away last year and his son still runs the Gold Sheet, i.e. Nationwide Sports.
 

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old man,

thanks for being such a voice of reason. i feel as though, i've been through some sort of intervention.

the metaphoric analogy with my construction business really hit home; brilliant explanation. the only other hurdle i forsee, is setting the bankroll??? do oyu still live in vegas?? once again, i thank you!

gl

ps: i once had a lengthy, very informative discussion with mort at the stardust sportsbook. very enjoyable!
 

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Hansen:

Regarding the bankroll, maybe I can give you some guidelines. As you know, I rate my plays from 1*-5* which is equivalent to 1%-5% of my bankroll. You had said that your largest play is 5* as well and each unit is worth $400. If each unit is $400, then your bankroll at the start of a season should be $40,000. This would make your 1* plays $400 and your 5* plays $2000. As your bankroll grows, each week you should adjust your value per unit accordingly. In other words, if your bankroll reached $44,000, your per unit play would be $440. Likewise, if your bankroll dropped to $36,000, your per unit play would be $360. I don't know if you read a thread I put in the Offshore Sportsbook Forum a couple of weeks ago entitled "Money Management - Middle to Advanced Levels". If not, try to find it. I show my entire football season for 2002, where my winning percentage was only around 55% but my return on my bankroll was 94% for the 6 month season from the preseason through the Superbowl. For purposes of the forum, I used a ficticious $10,000 bankroll as I felt that most posters in the forums use a unit value of $100 so I wanted to tailor the presentation to meet their needs. The bottom line is that it shows that with proper money management and only winning 55%, you can receive a handsome return for 6 months of work. I encourage you to check it out. I'm not sure how many posters read it as it fell off the first page pretty quickly unfortunately and I didn't feel it appropriate to bump it up.

As to your question regarding my residence, let's just say that I still own property in Las Vegas.
 

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old man,

i found it and printed it off!! will definitely put it to use! i can't wait for august!!!!
i capped basketball, up until this last year, and have been pretty profitable at that as well (to a little lesser degree), but have decided to axe it this year. i need the break, as does my family -- 70 hour weeks year round at this tiome in my life with young children is too much. and to be as prepared as i require myself to be is very taxing when they play every nite! the ends just aren't justifying the means.
i still follow the games/lines with a distant sharp eye, but it is something i really don't miss. i'll cap the tornament games in march. once again, thank you -- i really hope you understand how much help you've been!

gl
 

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Hansen:

Glad I could be of assistance. Hope the money management helps you next season. Can't blame you for passing hoops until March. Frankly, I can feel myself in need of a bit of a break myself as following a very nice bowl season, I've gone a little stale both in the NFL as well as College Hoops.

The positive responses that I received has helped me understand that I am making a difference here and that was all I wanted to do. So I'll be around the forums. Maybe not posting as many plays but around to share thoughts. Thanks for your encouragement and good luck next season.
 

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Aloha hansen bros., I have to say thanks for sharing your experience with us. Took alot of courage and honesty to share something like that. I am one, as well who can definately understand this dilema you are facing. I can honestly say that I still have alot to learn in this game. Discipline is definately one of them. Compared to the many awesome cappers here, I am just a youngster at this, with just roughly 14 years under my belt. I think that my experience of being a coach and player myself in sports like football, basketball, and some baseball. Along with a good majority of my family as well having this experience is what helped me acquired and use my handicapping skills towards achieving some success in sports investing. Still, it wasnt until others here at this forum, who shared the importance of money management with me, that I began to be able to realize its importance in this game longivity wise. Sometimes I still kick myself for falling into those bad habits of the past which I am constantly trying to break. For me, I think it is because of the fear of missing the opportunities, as I was thought that it is never lost, only past to the person who is willing to take advantage of it. Funny thing is that with all the knowledgeable cappers here, there is a whole lot of opportunities being presented to you every single weekend. Hell, in basketball and baseball, those opportunities seem to appear on a daily basis. Talk about going nuts. LOL.

Anyways, believe it or not. But from the day I came here till now, you are on my list of cappers who I must view to see who your playing. For me, I was thought to learn and to believe in my ablilities and use my experiences and knowledge to my benefit. So often in the past, I'd used others pay services because I felt that they knew something I didn't, etc. That, sadly to say after many losses and alot of $$$$ dished out, is not so true. They just like, some mentioned, knew how to promoted it to look like they knew more. It wasnt until a successful capper shared with me an insight to how I could be successful at this because of my first hand experiences I had. But he also, made it a point to remind me that,"everything I know is just the beginning". This is why I look forward to others sharing their insights and opinions on games and I enjoy seeing the differences in the angles they use or the reasons they give that makes them confident in their plays. This is just a benefit for me and provides me a way to strengthen my abilities. hansen bros., I believe that it is this ability not to get caught up in the belief that you know it all, which will allow you to become a bigger success than you already are at this.

If I may, I just want to share how I been dealing with the abundance of awesome cappers here at this forum. For me, before I looked at anothers plays, I always cap out the game first on my own. Then and only then would I view those posts, from those that I respect here, and like I mentioned your one of them. When viewing the others posts, I look to get feedback on my capping, and also as a way, like you mentioned, to see if I missed something. But still though, I would almost never let it change my selection on the game. The differences or similarities of opinions, would lead me to either raise my plays, lower them, or do nothing at all. I have found in the past that by changing my selection because others have it differently, had resulted in two negative effects on me. One, it caused me to question my abilities, which then affected my confidence alittle. And as we know confidence in yourself is important to succeeding in any game we play in life. The second was the awful feeling I had after I capped out a winner, only to change my selection because others were on the opposite side. This probably gave me the worst feeling of all, and one which lasted the longest. To have a winner in your hands, only to turn it away. Perfect example of my stupidity was taking Tulsa over GTech. Had GT, but was swayed to jump ship to Tulsa, cause I failed to do my work completely. I am still kicking myself for that loss, as just looking at the last 5 opponents Tulsa played should have shouted GT, and it did, but I failed to listen.

Well, before I keep going on and on. Which is another problem I seem to have as I can get a little long winded. I just would like to again share with you that I myself go through these same dilenmas at times. I also like to relay to you my honest vote of confidence and respect I have in your abilities. I have no advice to give you, as I know that you are quite equiped with the tools necessary to continue the success you already achieved. I just wanted to share with someone I respected, a friendly path of understanding and a helpful reminder of their qualities that they may have forgotten are instilled within themselves. hansen bros., you are right when you said that you have more than proven yourself a cappable handicapper. This I believed since coming here, and nothing not even a time of cloudiness which we all experience, could possibly sway me from that belief. Not to fear, as you see you are not alone here. But it is here that we together can find a way back to success for all to enjoy. Aloha and Good Luck My Friend. Co-Captain.

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on January 07, 2004 at 07:54 AM.]
 

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captain,

thank you for sharing your well thought out deliberations. they seemed very heart-felt and sincere. you are obviously a very good person.
i'm extremely happy that you are a part of the family here -- for both your thoughtful assistance and your extremely cognizant capping.
i've learned more in this thread than i have in the 25 yrs of working this Godforsakken business.
your tulsa dilemma, was exactly the kind of thing i've been talking about. at times, it even hurts when you add or scale back on your initial investments, let alone change them all together.
once again, thank you!

gl
 

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Han..........I just want to thank you for sharing your story. Its led to this highly informative exchange of ideas. I agree with the others that money management, dicipline, and confidence are the things that will turn things around. Only been around a year but this is the best thread I've ever read, period!

Best Wishes
Gary
 

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Hansen--Thanks for the props, they are very much appreciated. You are welcome for any help my posts have provided, and I thank you for yours as well.
One of my general rules is that I will not lay more than 3 points in the NFL unless it is a second half play. I just want to prevent second half back door covers going against me. I feel if I take the first half and lose, I can still take the second half if I still like the team.
I will sometimes bet 2 or 3 times more money on my 2nd half wagers, as I feel I was able to do research by watching the first half which often times gives me more confidence in the 2nd half play.
I believe intragame betting is where I am most successful. One year I was on a streak of something like 18 of 20. I would like to think for the past 8 years that I have played 2nd half plays that I am close to 60%, if not better.
Good luck in all your businesses and your gambling.
 

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Hansen:

I am so glad you wrote this thread. I have to omit that I was in the exact same position and landed on another poster in the NCAA football thread.

Like you, I have been capping for many years and am no way a pro, but I do pretty well. I have won many "office pools" including two this year picking 68%. One time entry fee, weekly payouts.. You know...

If I would have just played those pick, I would be sitting pretty, but for some silly reason, when I placing the wager, I value someone elses opinion rather than my own. weak? why? It's gotta change. Certinally not living up to my name... Maybe that's where the change begins...

Thanks for your Picks and more importantly, this thread!

FYA
 

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gary,

it pleases me that you've been able to find a positive message in this thread!! good luck to you and your eagles this weekend!

gl
 

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Hansen - appreciate you sharing this with us, probably a lot of us have done similar things. For me I always make my bets before I post anything. Always. It's not so much so that I won't change my mind but more so to make sure I can lock the line in that I am betting on the game. Once you do that I am ready and rarely change my mind based on what anyone else is posting. The only time I would eat the vig to get off my original bet is if there was an injury or something very prominent that someone posted about that I missed when I capped the game, just someone's differing opinion is not enough. Don't forget other than RPM who hits 71% on his off years (
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) the best in the world are only going to hit around 56%, even if a guy is good it shouldn't override what you thought on a game.

The other thing you have to remember is there is lots of touts (and wannbe's) here. In addition the guys who aren't touts also come with big ego's a lot of times. A simple "I like the Titans +6" isn't enough to draw attention so suddenly it's a super duper 10,000 unit lock. That way if it hits it garners attention for them and people are looking at them. Reality is they know shit in a lot of cases, thats why they make so much noise to begin with so someone will notice them. My point is there is very few here any sharper than you and the one's who are you probably don't even know about. They don't need the attention and keep to themselves for the most part. Don't let anyone here talk you off a play!

Anyway appreciate the honesty in your thread. I noticed just about every quality capper on the RX stopped by to say good words to you for encouragement, that in itself is quite a compliment to you and how you represent yourself here. I also respect you and if ever can assist feel free to contact me on or off the forum. Good luck with your bets, let the other guys spend their money on their own plays.
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fya,

it takes an incredible amount of reticence to not play some of these guys plays -- "do they know something i don't?" thanks for the empathy!

gl
 

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p. mac,

i really appreciate your post -- means a lot to me. i've really learned a lot here. you know i fashion myself a pretty intelligent guy -- college graduate from a prestigious private university, run a successful construction business, (just don't ask the wife -- about my smarts). however, this year humbled the hell out of me!!! how could i have had one of my better years capping, and lose so much $$$$????? could i possibley be that stupid -- the answer was/is a resounding, obvious YES.
it has been a lesson of magnamimous proportions; it cost me about what it cost me to go to school for one year, but i think i've graduated. at least i hope so. once again, thank you.

gl
 

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I DON'T WANNA TELL YOU WHAT YOU ALREADY KNOW HANSEN..BUT you are one guy whose picks i always look forward to seeing on this forum. you and only a handful of others .

you play yours and yours only only and maintain smart money money management and there is no doubt in my mind you'd be up considerably.

stick to your guns esp. when you know what you're doing and YOU DO!
 

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